Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | STL | OF | 1 | 55 |
Grades Update: Dec 2020
| OFP | Role | Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Dec 2020 Report
Evaluator: Matt Thompson
Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-2
Weight: 205 lbs
Hits/Throws: S/L
Acquired: 2016 Draft - Round 1
RuleV: On 40-Man
Physical Description: Tall, broad shoulders with long tapering legs. Added 10-15 pounds of muscle last season, limited physical projection remaining in frame. Impressive athlete with no real physical weakness. Savvy, high baseball IQ. Didn't face a pitcher younger than him until 2018. Calm, reassuring demeanor. Poised, mature beyond years.
Hit: Switch-hitter with mirror image swings from left and right side. Stands upright with knees slightly bent with shoulders square to the pitcher. Uses a thigh high leg kick as the trigger, and keeps bat though the zone with above-average bat speed. Impressive hand-eye coordination and ability to find the barrel. Covers the strike zone very well and will take his walks. Keeps head still and will square up any and all fastballs. Susceptible to breaking balls on the lower half, and big league pitchers attacked him with sliders in the lower quadrants. Cerebral hitter; Cardinals have pushed him aggressively since drafting him, and he's always made adjustments. Future plus hitter that can fit in anywhere in lineup. Grade: 60
Power: Has bulked up and added power to his game, and he's capable of swatting 25-30 homers in a full season. Swing plane generates natural loft and he's proven he can drive the ball, especially when it's up in the zone. There's more natural power in his left-handed swing, right-handed cut is a slightly more level swing. Stays back and keeps hands inside baseball, allowing him to drive the ball. Major League average exit velocities at 20 years old are a great sign for his future power potential. Grade: 55
Field: He's a plus defender in left, above-average in right (average arm dings him some), and an average centerfielder. Strong first step and long strides allow him to get to more balls than most. He's a versatile defender that can play all three outfield positions while also being a capable defender at first base. He's better at going back on the ball than coming in, but there's no real weakness here in the outfield. Fits best in left field, but if you need offense he can be regular centerfielder. Grade: 55
Arm: Above-average accuracy with average carry. The arm doesn't prevent him from being an everyday guy in center or even right, but his only average arm strength fits best in left. Mechanically sound footwork, no issues with footwork or transfer on throws. Grade: 50
Run: Above-average speed plays up due to high baseball IQ. Aggressive runner that will take the extra base. Regularly going from first to third. Good jumps and above-average speed make him a moderate stolen base threat. Capable of 15 or so steals depending on location in batting order. Grade: 55
Overall: Solid contributor in all facets of the game. His strong strikezone recognition make the hit tool his strongest tool. Versatile player on both sides of the ball that can play all three outfield positions well and also be a natural fit at any spot in the lineup. Carried himself well despite big league struggles in 2020. Carlson will settle in as a 3-to-4 win player and be an anchor in the Cardinals lineup for years to come.
OFP: 55
Role: 60 - Above-Average Everyday Regular: Occasional All-Star
Risk: Low
