I’m trying something new with 2025 Topps Series 1, and hopefully it helps anyone participating in breaks or simply wanting a quick hit, one liner on each player, rather than the more in depth takes we traditionally give in our Topps and Bowman Flagship previews. Essentially I’m looking to provide some team ranking viewpoints that should inform some decisions about pricing Pick Your Team (PYT) breaks or buying teams in PYT breaks. And I’m looking to provide some quickly referenced player thoughts for breakers and break participants to use as they rip packs.
The traditional 2025 Topps Series 1 Preview with the in depth player breakdowns from a Hobby perspective can be found here.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments, on social media, or in the Prospects Live discord. This is a beta version of this idea, and I really want to get feedback on how it can be improved.
Team Values
Lets take a look at the Team Value data. I’ve put together a very basic weighted formula to calculate what I think would be the percentage value per team in the product with the primary focus on rookie cards. I’ve calculated the data in three different scenarios - by simple team volume, by team tiered volume, and by juiced team tiered value. I’ve also looked at this when it is all rookie cards vs. just the rookies with base True Rookie Cards.
Team Volume Value is the most basic approach of taking the count of rookies per team and just spitting out the percentage of them in the overall count of rookies in the checklist
Team Tiered Value is implementing a weighted formula where Tier 1 rookies hold the most value, Tier 2 the second most, etc. and then spitting out a percentage on how I would value each team.
Juiced Team Tiered Value is taking a few teams that have an extra reason for “juicing” their price point. In this case, I think there are four teams to do this with:
Dodgers - Shohei Ohtani, Dancing Dodgers Variations, and simply because they are the World Series champs
Yankees - Yankees tax. They are the most collectable team in baseball cards, and that cannot go unaccounted for
Pirates - Paul Skenes second year cards - the most desirable rookie from the previous year tends to have a spillover collectable effect onto the first few second year products they are in
Giants - Barry Bonds getting his first licensed baseball cards with Topps since 2017. We get base and autographs in 2025 Topps Series 1
And here are the data tables I’ve compiled. These rankings are also available on a google spreadsheet - see the Team BREAKdown tab. You can copy and paste this data into your own spreadsheet to filter or slice and dice the data however you’d like.
This is basically what I do in my head when I look at PYT break prices, primarily to try and value hunt teams I like, but also to identify even teams I don’t necessarily like but the value is too good to pass up.
One thing that I did not get a chance to work in is the overall checklist volume. For example, the Braves, as is typically the case, have a ton of cards in the product, even if it’s heavily weighted towards veterans and ex-MLB players. As I hone this process in the future, I expect I will try and figure out how best to account for this.
As I said off the top - let me know what you think and how I can make this more useful to fellow collectors.
Now let’s hop into the quick reference (Cliff Notes) write-ups of all of these players.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
While I typically focus on the Rookies with True Rookie Cards only, this year I’ll add in the rookies with inserts and/or autos but not yet receiving their True Rookie Card. I’ll likely cover them again when they should receive their True Rookie Cards in 2025 Topps Series 2 in the summer. These players are denoted with an asterisk (*).
I’ve compiled these player quick references in a google spreadsheet for ease of use (see the Player BREAKdown tab). Just like the Team BREAKdown, this will allow you to copy and past it into your own spreadsheet to filter or slice and dice the data however you’d like.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Adrian Del Castillo, 25, C
Plus power with some questionable underlying hit data along with defensive question marks.
Yilber Diaz, 24, P
Big time stuff with too many walks - it’s a coin flip on whether he ends up a mid-rotation pitcher or a bullpen arm.
Tier None
Cristian Mena, 22, P
Some interesting potential but not enough strikeouts with his current arsenal to have enough Hobby interest.
Athletics
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Jacob Wilson, 22, SS
Draft pedigree, legacy player, near-elite hit tool, but probably isn’t providing above average value in any other facet of the game keeps him out of Tier 1.
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Brady Basso*, 27, P
Back-end starter that limits walks through strong command of his arsenal but doesn’t have the stuff to get enough K’s against big league hitters.
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Spencer Schwellenbach, 24, P
A very impressive debut that flew under the radar - huge arsenal of above average to plus pitches, fills up the zone, gets a ton of chase, limits walks and hard contact. Not much to NOT like.
Tier 3
Hurston Waldrep, 22, P
Big time stuff, but the command and control have not improved, leading to way too much bullpen risk to be ranked higher.
Tier None
Nacho Alvarez Jr., 21, 2B/3B
No standout tool at the moment, with the hit tool going to have to continue to shine for him to get everyday reps and increase his Hobby relevance.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Coby Mayo, 3B/1B
Big time power hitter that has the Pete Alonso starter kit - only question is if the hit tool will get him to that level. Borderline Tier 1 potential.
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Cade Povich, 24, P
Low velo, back-end pitchability lefty with a variety of average to above average pitches, but nothing that stands out.
Chayce McDermott, 26, P
Good stuff but needs to make changes to figure out how to harness his arsenal effectively against MLB hitters while not giving up double digit walk rates.
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Nick Sogard, 27, INF
Fringe utility player that has a bag of average tools.
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Kevin Alcántara*, 22, OF
High risk, high reward outfielder with big time power that is held back by his hit tool and inconsistent results.
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Chicago White Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Brooks Baldwin, 24, 2B/SS
Versatile utility player that has good contact skills and can play all over the diamond.
Drew Thorpe, 24, P
SP4 with a near elite change-up that has vague question marks about his current arm health which pushes him into Tier None until we have clarity.
Ky Bush, 25, P
Stuff has faded, command is an issue, and it was just announced he is now getting TJ. Yikes.
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Rece Hinds, 24, OF
Streaky swing and miss power speed outfielder with a fringe hit tool.
Rhett Lowder, 22, P
Potential SP3 pitcher that succeeds through pitch mix and sequencing rather than high velocity gas.
Tier None
Blake Dunn, 26, OF
Backup outfielder that always goes full speed with stolen bases being the only offensive tool worth noting.
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Joey Cantillo, 25, P
Intriguing lefty with strikeout stuff with some command risk and lower velocity that caps his upside.
Tier None
Ángel Martínez, 23, OF
Versatile defender with a collection of average to above average tools with the hit tool being the best in the offensive bag.
Jhonkensy Noel, 23, OF/1B
Big Christmas! Big Power! Big Contact Issues!
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Adael Amador, 21, 2B
Potential plus hit and run tools with Tier 2 upside, but 2024 was a season to forget for Amador.
Tier None
Aaron Schunk, 27, INF
Utility infielder that has yet to see a pitch he doesn’t think he should swing at.
Bradley Blalock, 24, P
Boring back-end starter on the absolute last team you want a pitcher on.
Drew Romo, 23, C
One of the best defensive catcher prospects in the past few years that could hit for a decent average because Colorado.
Greg Jones, 26, OF
Backup outfielder with speed to burn and good power that is held back by a fringe hit tool.
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
Jackson Jobe*, 22, P
Future ace that just needs to build up innings and remain healthy to reach that Ceiling.
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jace Jung, 24, 3B/2B
Recognizable name with above average hit and power tools, but defensive challenges call into question his future role.
Tier None
Brant Hurter, 26, P
Back-end starter or bullpen arm that shows some pitchability promise to be an effective MLB arm.
Dillon Dingler, 26, C
Big armed catcher with above average power that will be held back by his long swing and hitting in a pitcher’s park.
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 24, OF
Offense-first backup outfielder that can provide decent hit and power skills with his OBP approach and good eye at the plate.
Trey Sweeney, 24, SS
First round draft pedigree is almost a distant memory, with the only positives left at this point is the speed on the base-paths and the ability to stick at short even though he lacks a big arm.
Keider Montero*, 24, P
Back-end starter that traded strikeouts for better command in his 2024 MLB stint, but doesn’t have an MLB spot to start 2025.
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Shay Whitcomb, 26, 3B/2B
Broke out in 2023 and backed it up with a more believable 2024 as a infielder that can provide above average value in all three facets of the game (hit/power/speed).
Zach Dezenzo, 24, 1B/3B
Corner bat best suited for first base with plus power but hasn’t yet shown it regularly in game.
Tier None
Pedro León, 26, OF
Backup outfielder with a bunch of intriguing tools that has been held back by his fringe hit tool.
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Tyler Gentry, 26, OF
Org depth outfielder with a collection of average tools.
CJ Alexander*, 28, 3B
Strong side platoon corner infielder/outfielder that already had one team give up on him in 2024, ending up landing in one of the most “who-knows-what-the-heck-is-happening” orgs (Athletics).
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Caden Dana*, P, 21
Angels doing Angels things and potentially ruining prospects by pushing them to the majors too soon - Dana has two reliable, above-average to plus pitches, but needs a third to reach his SP3+ upside.
Tier None
Jack Kochanowicz, 24, P
Back-end pitcher that needs a pitch mix change to take the next step and be a reliable rotation arm.
Niko Kavadas, 26, DH/1B
Three true outcomes designated hitter that’s most likely outcome is that he won’t hit enough to get to his big power or have a full time role.
Samuel Aldegheri*, 23, P
Low velocity, pitchability lefty that should find an innings eater role at the back of a rotation for a second division team like the Angels.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
River Ryan, 26, P
Super high ceiling pitcher with four above average to plus pitches that unfortunately had Tommy John surgery in August.
Tier None
Hunter Feduccia, 27, C
Backup catcher type that doesn’t do anything special, but doesn’t hurt you either.
Justin Wrobleski, 24, P
Back-end starter that has had consistency issues throughout his career in the minors, and his MLB debut produced underwhelming results.
Miami Marlins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Adam Mazur, 23, P
Control artist, back-end starter that lacks the strikeout upside so you’re hoping for a Kyle Hendricks type of outcome.
Connor Norby, 24, 2B/3B
Defensive concerns with no standout tools - hit tool is average with some recent whiff and strikeout concerns, and the power tool could be above average, but Miami’s home stadium suppresses that potential significantly.
Valente Bellozo*, 25, P
Back-end starter with low velocity that gives up a ton of fly balls but gets away with it in a pitcher friendly park.
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Carlos Rodriguez, 23, P
Back-end starter with bullpen risk that has a diverse arsenal, but just doesn’t strike out enough MLB-level hitters for us to be interested.
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Brooks Lee, 23, SS
First round draft and prospect pedigree infielder that’s got a plus hit tool that drives his contact over power approach.
Tier 3
David Festa, 24, P
Fastball effectiveness will be the key on whether Festa will be a mid-rotation arm or relegated to the bullpen.
Zebby Matthews, 24, P
Elite command and control pitcher that needs to figure out how to use that to his advantage against MLB hitters who completely ate him up in his big league debut.
Tier None
None
New York Mets
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Luisangel Acuña*, 22, SS
Contact over power type of hitter that wants to run wild with his plus speed and can play anywhere that’s needed with a strong arm and a good glove.
Tier None
None
New York Yankees
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Ben Rice, 25, 1B
Passive hitter with big power from the left side that can take advantage of the right field short porch in Yankee stadium but doesn’t make enough consistent contact to force New York to give him an everyday job.
Tier None
Carlos Narváez, 25, C
Backup catcher that was traded to the Red Sox but will have rookie cards in a Yankees uniform.
Will Warren, 25, P
Back-end starter or bullpen arm with strikeout upside but has challenges with command and pitch sequencing.
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Tyler Phillips, 27, P
Back-end starter whose average stuff works best when he’s limiting walks and getting ground balls.
Michael Mercado*, 25, P
Bullpen arm with an effortless delivery and strikeout stuff that can be negated by poor command.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Nick Yorke*, 22, 2B
Draft and prospect pedigree that has an above average to plus hit tool but nothing else of note coupled with defensive deficiencies.
Tier None
Billy Cook*, 26, 1B/OF
Bench bat with good top line offensive results but some questionable hit tool and contact data.
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Sean Reynolds, 26, P
Classic flamethrower reliever profile that can get a ton of strikeouts while also walking too many batters.
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Grant McCray, 24, OF
Swing and miss power speed outfielder that will succeed or fail based on the how the hit tool develops.
Hayden Birdsong*, 23, P
Mid-rotation upside with bullpen risk that needs to find an effective fastball and stop giving up so many free passes.
Tier None
None
Seattle Mariners
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Tyler Locklear, 24, 1B
Potential for above average hit tool with plus power but the really good power data does not match the results yet and his home ballpark won’t help.
Tier None
Ryan Bliss, 25, 2B
Utility player with plus speed and defensive versatility in the infield and an inconsistent hit tool at best.
St. Louis Cardinals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Thomas Saggese*, 22, 2B
Offense first, free-swinging second baseman with good contact skills that needs to be hidden defensively.
Tier None
Michael McGreevy, 24, P
Solid but unspectacular pitcher that limits hard contact and eats up innings.
Gordon Graceffo*, 24, P
Back-end SP innings eater that has to keep the ball in the zone as he’s lacking the swing and miss stuff to go outside the zone frequently.
Adam Kloffenstein*, 24, P
Org depth swing-man at this point that we can safely ignore.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Kameron Misner, 27, OF
Strong side platoon outfielder that at his best is a three true outcomes player with speed and defense, but even that outcome of being an MLB regular seems less and less likely as time passes.
Toronto Blue Jays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jake Bloss, 23, P
Back-end SP with mid-rotation upside if he can recapture the strikeout rates he had in the lower minors.
Orelvis Martinez, 23, 2B
High risk, high reward plus power bat with some lingering hit tool concerns.
Leo Jiménez*, 23, SS/2B
Solid but unspectacular player with a strong plate approach and contact skills.
Will Wagner*, 26, 2B
Plus hit tool but not much else besides the legacy player component with the risk of being a strong side platoon bat.
Tier None
Luis De Los Santos, 26, 3B
Org depth utility player that has already been passed through the waiver wire twice this off-season.
Steward Berroa*, 25, OF
Backup outfielder with good defense and plus speed that looks to get on base via the walk or putting the ball in play and beating out the throw.
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
Dylan Crews, 22, OF
5 tool player with the highest floor in the product and strong draft and prospect pedigree.
James Wood, 22, OF
Dynamic talent with the highest ceiling in the product that is a few tweaks away from being a superstar.
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Andrés Chaparro, 25, 1B/DH
Hit and power bat that is limited defensively that a young team has strangely decided to block on the roster with not one but two vets.
DJ Herz, 24, P
He may look like a Tier None back-end rotation arm, but below the surface he looks like a high upside, mid-rotation arm with high K potential.
Tier None
Darren Baker*, 26, 2B
Son of Dusty, slap hitting speedster that is more org depth than MLB-caliber player.