Feb 2021 Report
Evaluator: Matt Thompson
Age: 25 yr
Height: 6-2
Weight: 181 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/L
Acquired: 2015 Round 5
RuleV: On 40-Man Roster
Physical Description: Big sturdy framed left-hander, looks bigger than listed 181 pounds. Broad shoulders, long legs and an unathletic looking frame. Szapucki had Tommy John in the middle of 2017, and didn't get back onto the mound until 2019 and had strict pitch counts upon his return.
Delivery & Mechanics: Inconsistent mechanics with a low 3/4 arm slot. Pitches from an abbreviated windup. Upper body squared towards home plate but lower half already angled towards first base. He also pitches from the first base side of the rubber. Adds deception by keeping front side closed but will fly open often, which leads to strike throwing issues. He also has an inconsistent stride and will vary his timing, which he doesn't need to do right now. Just find a nice repeatable motion and everything else should fall in place. It is a low effort delivery though, despite all the intricate movements.
Fastball: Pre-Tommy John the lefty was frequently bumping up into the upper 90s, now he primarily sits around 91-92 and can touch 94. He lives up in the zone with the heater and gets good carry. He doesn't necessarily need the fastball to get back to pre-TJ velo levels to have success since he will pitch off of the breaking ball at times. In putaway counts there's a 50/50 chance you'll get the fastball or breaking ball. Grade: 50
Curveball: Everywhere I've looked refers to this pitch as a curveball, but it moves more like a slider due to the lack of depth. It features horizontal movement and he will rely on the pitch heavily to get outs. He will throw it at the back foot of right-handers but also look to catch the outside corner. He's fearless and will also throw the pitch up in the zone to put hitters away. It's a high spin breaker, and had the highest spin rate of any breaking ball on the amateur circuit. Potential plus pitch with better command. Grade: 55
Changeup: Seldomly used third pitch, but one that has become more prominent after his Tommy John rehab. Pitch has good depth and fade against right-handers, but lacks consistency. Will throw a nasty change and the next time he throws it its a non-competitive offering. Only uses the pitch against right-handers. Pitch is good enough to keep him in a rotation, but his long-term role is more health than stuff related. Grade: 45
Control and Command: Szapucki struggles to consistently throw strikes due to the previously mentioned mechanical flaws. He commands his breaking ball better than his heater, but your opinion of Szapucki depends on when you've seen him, as he's wildly inconsistent from start to start despite impressive early minor league results. Will battle himself with high pitch counts. Don't look for him to go late in games as a starter. Control: 45 | Command: 40
Overall: Szapucki's ability to land a breaking ball for strikes and a fastball that could touch 97 really drove him up prospect lists early on and allowed him to dominate lineups at the lower levels of the minors. His spotty health record, he's had shoulder and elbow injuries, could push him to the bullpen. He has missed massive amounts of development over the last several seasons. He had TJ mid-way through 2017 that also cost him his 2018 season. 2019 saw him pitching on strict pitch counts for a majority of the season and then obviously the pandemic in 2020. He has the stuff to be a potential late inning reliever but the Mets should continue to see if he can start.
OFP: 45
Role: 40 - Spot Starter or Long Relief
Risk: High
