Intro
The team is back with their first update since November. The main changes with this ranking address FYPD values, adding J15 players (and Roki) as well as adjustments to players that stick out after some additional offseason evaluation.
The same group is back and we have 7 individual lists compiled from Drew Wheeler, Greg Hoogkamp, Kyle Sontag, Matt Thompson, Ryan Epperson, Taylor Corso & Tom Gates. They each ranked out 400 prospects deep which has brought us to a total of 633 prospects ranked. Additionally, this time we've left the players who dropped off the list from the last iteration which brings the total up to 698 players.
Here is a glance at the Top 30 prospects, with Roki Sasaki sitting atop the list:
Historical Fantasy Prospect Lists
As many of you know, Prospects Live has been around since 2018 and has been compiling lists for quite some time. Unfortunately, the earliest of early lists are only 100 deep, but we have records of 21 iterations of the Top 500 lists back to October 2020. Around this time last year we released a google sheet with all this data and this time around we've added the 2024 lists and put it in the PLIVE+ App Suite.
The historical lists table is sorted by the most recent release so you can quickly toggle over to see where players rank historically. Here's what the most recent Top 30 Prospects looks like:
However, we also have every player that's ever been ranked in one of our lists included in this table, 1697 players in total. If you sort by the "Min" column you'll see ever player who has ever been ranked #1 overall, #2, etc.
Below are the players who we've ever ranked as a top 5 prospect.
Along with the search bar visible in the images above, there are also filters to only display players from a given release date, as well as filters to only look at players within a certain Min & Max range. Right now the filters from the Top 600+ do not work on this table, however the next iteration will hopefully include the ability to filter by current position.
Aside from being fun to look at and having an easy way to see the difference between a player's rank in the most recent list versus the last, I'm personally looking forward to diving into the data to see if we can pull out some useful nuggets of information.
An example: among the top 30 players in the most recent list, how many were at one time ranked past 200th? The answer is 16 players. Over half were had cheaply in trades or off the waiver wire at some point. For five players (16% of the current Top 30), Kristian Campbell, Luke Keaschall, Jesus Made, Kumar Rocker and Zyhir Hope, that point was just last season.
Going back to the 2024 February rankings, 5 players in that Top 30 were also readily available the prior year: Samuel Basallo, Ethan Salas (since dropped), Jackson Jobe, Lazaro Montes, and Roman Anthony. Then in 2023 & 2022 the next 2 years it was 3 players in each Top 30.
So on average, 4 players each year will be widely available then become extremely valuable by the start of the following season.
Where do these players come from? A top IFA player in each class seems to be one source: Jesus Made, Ethan Salas and Jackson Chourio to name a few. However most appear to be pop-up prospects taken outside the 1st round of the MLB Draft or IFA guys who needed to get some footing after their first professional season.
Again, this is just one example of some info we can gleam from historical lists. I'm looking forward to adding some additional data to dig into in the future. Here are a few questions in particular:
Utilizing dynasty values from our Top 1300+, what the average values are for players who rank in certain sections of the list?
Is there a month where the prospects rankings most correlates with dynasty values?
Is there a pocket of ranks where players become widely valued but tend to drop back in subsequent lists?
Is TINSTAAPP a thing for dynasty? Should we ever hold pitching prospects?
How often do prospects ranked 400+ actually make it?
Where To Find the Top 600+ List & Historical Lists
The list can be found in the PLIVE+ APP SUITE which is available to The 60 Tier Patreon subscribers ($10/mo). The app suite post also has a google sheet for the Top 600+ and the Top 1300+ Dyansty List.
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Back to the 600+ list... below are all the metrics and filters and stuff that you can do in the app:
Top 600+ metrics in the app to go along with individual ranks:
Min/Max: Pretty self-explanatory, they are the lowest (number) and highest a player is ranked
Var: A custom formula that shows how much disagreement there is between ranks past just the min and max. This metric takes into account where they are ranked to be able to more closely compare differing opinions of a Top 50 player vs a Top 250.
App: Simply the number of rankers that had them within their individual top 350.
High/Low: These are the names of the ranker who was highest or lowest on each player.
Tier: Tiers had been a long-requested feature; we frequently get questions about whether two given prospects are in the same tier, this helps answer that question.
For those new around here, here's what else Top 600+ has in terms of functionality:
You can upload your own Fantrax and CBS league (the hyperlinked video shows you the tutorial) and sort out exactly who's available to pick up! Watch this quick video for a tutorial on how to do so. It's just a data download of the free agents!
You can filter by:
Position
Age
Team
Hitter or Pitcher
AL/NL
FYPD Class
Most recent AFL
ETA
Level
Newcomers on the list (look for the +)
Players who had big jumps or downturns in ranks
If a prospect is on the 40-man for those deep league value adds
What are archetypes?
We want you to know who a prospect is at a glance, so we developed archetypes. You need to flip the 'View Tags' switch at the top to see them.
For hitters, we have:
Power+Speed (55 grade in each)
OBP Bump (someone who has exhibited great eye and could be 10 BB%+)
Hit Tool (at or near 60-grade)
Big Power (at or near 60-grade or have a big 90th EV)
Speedster (60+ grade)
For pitchers, we have:
Big Velocity (average 95+ mph)
Bullpen Risk (self-explanatory)
SP2 Potential (self-explanatory)
Each prospect can be tagged:
High Risk/Reward
Safe Floor