This off-season, I’ll be taking a look at the three main 2022 Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. I previously reviewed 2022 Bowman, with which this product has has some crossover with autographs of guys like Jackson Chourio and Ceddanne Rafaela.
The main draw of Bowman Chrome is typically the International Signees from the period beginning that year’s January (J15). But in retrospect, for a second consecutive year nearly all the top signees have not yet started to pan out. They’re mostly still entering their age-20 seasons in 2025 — lots of time yet — but there’s only been a few up arrows. Also interesting is the fact there were only eight 1st Bowman pitchers in the entire checklist — that might be an all-time low at the time of release. The rest of the checklist also seems a bit odd and, underwhelming? Judge for yourself, let’s take a look!
I didn’t fix my mouth to say there’s enough to create a “Top Prospect” section this time, but I did instead break into Proximity Prospects and J15 signees, in addition to the sections I’ve previously used.
Before we start I want to bring up a little nuance Topps experimented with in this release, and quickly hit on a few players. Including non-1st Bowman autographs is nothing new, but it was a targeted effort in this release. Specifically from the 2021 Draft, they included eleven subjects who didn’t previously have autographs. Eleven subjects! There are two names to mention from this who are more significant than the rest, and one is clearly the most significant. This release is the first time we saw an actual photo of Jackson Merrill in a base-set design. There’s no need to detail his ascent, but he certainly seems to have made himself a hobby mainstay for the foreseeable future. The other strong hobby name is Brady House. He’s got some significant flaws that have been exposed, but his power potential remains significant. The other 9 names: Cal Conley, Cameron Cauley, Cooper Bowman, Denzel Clarke, Daylen Lile, Donta Williams, John Rhodes, JT Schwartz, and Noah Miller.
TOP OF THE CROP
I feel a bit sheepish picking these three for this section because the answer is actually Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio, and Ceddanne Rafaela if you’re looking for real content. But none of those players are appearing in their first release here, so…
Everyone’s favorite breakout candidate (for 2025? 2026?), it's easy to like Jaison Chourio. He’s not at all in the same mold as his brother. Jackson at age 19 (and today) is a highly aggressive hitter whose power potential always shone through. Little bro Jaison, at the same age, is a very patient, mature hitter and very rarely swings and misses. In fact, among teenagers who played outside Complex Leagues, only William Bergolla (see a bit further down) and Cristofer Torin had a better SwStr% than Chourio. Using that same filter, nobody walked more Chourio – his OBP was an outstanding .414 (bested only by Demetrio Crisantes). There’s a few things that separates him from these contact hitters though – one of which is our favorite word – projection. We don’t know when it’ll come exactly but there should be some power coming. Chourio also runs well which allows him to both be a threat on the bases and potentially stick in CF. He’s a rock solid prospect. Right now he’s easily the best of the 2022 J15’s in this product hobby-wise.
If only Yanquiel Fernandez’s transition to AAA went better, we’d be buzzing about his chances to open 2025 in Coors Field. As it is though, his ability to elevate completely fell apart at the level and he has some adjustments to make. He’s a big, strong RF/DH-type who will get to at least 20 HR (likely more) in the majors, given the run. We can say that with certainty. And as the Rockies aren’t contending, all he should have to do is perform. He’s on the 40-man. Fernandez has always been an aggressive hitter whose ability to make contact isn’t too much of a concern in terms of strikeouts. However as he’s usually swinging for the fences early in counts, he can be easier to pitch around in order to elicit weak contact. That’s what caused the high GB% in AAA. That’s what he needs to correct to make it to Denver. At just 22 years old this season, I’m very confident he makes corrections and makes it to the majors, and I’m eager to see him show off his power there. I think he’s appropriately valued in the hobby – Colorado’s not a great market, and he’s quite unlikely to bring more than power and arm strength.
Improvement. That’s what Rayne Doncon showed in 2024 (at A/A+) on top of what was already a profile with some promise. He had previously posted impressive ISO’s for his age while keeping his K% in check, but this past year he showed he could be a more complete hitter. He posted a .342 OBP, besting his previous mark by a sizable margin while still slugging his way to .177 ISO. The Twins even gave him the majority of his defensive reps at SS, where he’s improved. Even if he ends up at 3B there’s easily enough power in his profile to think he could one day be a big-league regular, and there’s an outside shot he becomes a star. He’s at least likelier to be a hobby star than a real-life one because of that no-doubt power. At 21 this year with three double-digit HR seasons already in the rearview and recent marked improvements, he could be on the precipice of a multi-level breakout.
MLB-Experienced PLAYERS
Enmanuel Valdez has been traded twice now since this product came out. The first time was to the Red Sox, where he made his debut in 2023 and totaled 340 AB’s. The second was to the Pirates, which came after the Red Sox DFA’d him early this offseason. He does still have an option left, so he figures to be an up-and-down bat to be used in tandem with (oddly enough, fellow former Red Sox) Nick Yorke all season. Valdez has power, based in his ability to find the barrel rather than true raw juice, however he just hasn't performed frequently or consistently enough for that one ability to stand out in the majors. He’s also an absolute butcher in the field. There’s still a chance that the change of scenery brings something that helps with his approach and consistency heading into his age-26 season though – we shall see.
Shoulder surgery, especially one where we don’t know details but is expected to keep a pitcher out for a year, is a massive red flag. That’s the only reason Gavin Stone is even this far down. He’s a big success story for the Dodgers (I know, shocking) after being a 2020 5th Round draftee from Central Arkansas that signed for underslot money. He first made his mark in becoming a top 100 prospect, then had an excellent rookie season in 2024, leading the eventual WS champs in many pitching categories. Of course, he wasn’t part of that run as he had already gone out to injury in September. It’s a shame, because he has (had?) all the makings of a long-term mid-rotation arm with #2 upside. His excellent change-up leads the way and everything plays off of it. His four-seam and sinker are different enough in shape and at 95 MPH average velo each, can be tough to square up. His slider gives him a 4th solid pitch. But there’s now just a cloud of uncertainty regarding his future, especially with the Dodgers willingness to use their deep pockets to just move on to the next guy. He’s going to fall down really hard in the eyes of the hobby over the next 10 months – keep an eye out for deals if you’re a believer in his rebound.
Throughout the course of the past three seasons Nelson Velazquez has amassed 615 plate appearances in the majors where he’s totaled 31 HR. But there’s a few reasons it’s taken him this long to get to a full season’s worth of PA. First, he’s just not a good hitter, deploying a too-aggressive approach with a lot of swing-and-miss. Between all of the power there’s a lot of weak contact. The second reason is that he’s squarely a corner OF, and doesn’t move well in either of them. I think it’s completely fair that he’s currently in a short-side platoon with the Royals – it’s a good fit for his skill set. Expectations of 200 PA’s with 8-10 HR should remain the norm for him. That leaves him pretty far off hobby radar, even with his power.
Mike Burrows has been a starter for nearly his entire 6-year MiLB career, but he’s never topped 95 innings because he’s faced a myriad of injuries. He’s healthy now, most recently in a return from TJ, and made MLB debut in September. He’s changed who is as a pitcher considerably through the years. First he developed a change, which is now his signature offering and a plus pitch. He still has a nice curve, but emerging in 2024 he also has a slider that he throws more often and has been quite effective in its limited track record. His fastball has always been a quality pitch as well and should be above average in the majors. His command still needs to click into place, but that's common in recovery from TJ. All the injuries leave him with relief risk, but he’s surely not gonig to be in that role yet – he’ll be biding his time, proving his health in AAA as he tries to knock down the door to the majors. He’s 25 this year. There have been plenty of pitchers who fall into hobby relevance at that age, and he has the skill to be another one.
Graham Ashcraft has 328 MLB innings to his name, and all of them thus far have been starts. But he’s just so, so boring, and health issues (elbow) have popped up recently. With all the roster additions and developments the Reds have had, that streak of having no relief appearance appears to be coming to an end. He is good at getting grounders, so perhaps he hits an optimal scenario of coming in for a tiring starter to get a double play, then parlays that into a 2-3 inning outing? That’s really as good as he’s gonna get moving forward, in addition to likely a few spot starts. But he gives up a lot of hard contact, and doesn’t miss a ton of bats. One last parting shot on this player who’s clearly not a hobby name to consider. Career 7-ER games: 6. Career 7-strikeout games: 9. At least that ratio is in his favor!
That Maikel Garcia has never been a big hobby name is justified because he doesn’t have power. But in 2023, he did put up a promising rookie campaign while anchoring the top of the Royals lineup and providing positive defensive value at 3B. That all slipped in 2024 as the book on his in-zone aggression was out. His K% actually fell, but with little pop, the “why not just let him hit the ball?” mentality took hold and he didn’t make the most of it. While he is a threat on the bases, his speed is just above average – he’s not a true burner. That (and the low OBP) makes it so the Royals’ trade for Jonathan India pushes him down to the bottom of the batting order. Still only entering his age-25 season here’s some hope that he makes better use of his high contact rate with little more loft in his swing. But that’s merely a thought experiment that may never come to fruition. He’s as he’s always been – not a major hobby name, and deservedly so.
A quality fielder with fringe-average speed and hit and below average power that’s dictated by his 5’6” stature, Jorge Barrosa made his debut for the Diamondbacks in 2024 in a few very brief stints. It’s going to take a trade or some injuries for him to ever see significant playing time, though for the next 5 years at least he should see considerable time in the majors as a 5th OF. There’s a small chance he goes on a heater with a lot of quality contact at some point, but even in typing that I’m only trying to pipe out some remote hobby relevance.
Joey Wiemer’s power and speed combination is so intriguing that he hasn’t been bounced from a 40-man…yet. He was traded twice in 2024 though despite seeing very little time in the majors, more of a throw-in in both deals. The season itself was one to forget. He struggled to make enough contact, and what was once called a “good approach” looked too passive. When he did make contact, too often it wasn't quality. He now needs to be fixed in the Royals system entering his age-26 season. I don’t think making more contact is in the cards – that’s something that has always persisted in his game. He’s going to run a high K%. He just needs to make better and more confident swing decisions, regardless of the count. No more conservatism is his best route, I think. He has so many other tools, including being a really good OF in both center and right, and an ability to steal 20+ bases if given a full run. It’s a shame he seems to have fallen so far. Also note Wiemer is a base-only subject in this release.
Recently bounced from the Mariners’ 40-man, Cade Marlowe remains in their system after clearing waivers and being outrighted to AAA. Though he’s never latched onto significant playing time in the majors and turns 28 in June, there have been periods of hobby interest because he possesses an intriguing power/speed blend. He’s just not strong enough in the field to stomach his contact rate (22nd percentile Z-Contact at AAA in 2024) that has never been great. He could yet have another rebirth, but it’s almost certain to be not long-lasting.
Dylan Dodd started 7 games for the Braves in 2023, then was banished to AAA for almost all of 2024 where he, frankly, wasn’t very good. He’s actually never been good in the upper minors, allowing a SLG right around .500 across the two seasons. He’s a finesse lefty who’s secondaries just are too close to one another in velocity and movement profile. The Braves have a great hobby market, but I don’t think Dodd is really a part of it.
proximity prospects
That I have Wilfred Veras this high up in the section is more a testament to his proximity and the weakness of the checklist than his status as a prospect. As he’s not currently on the 40-man and was just OK in AA last year, I don’t think he gets much of a MLB look in 2025. There’s just nothing in his profile that screams exciting. It’s MLB-average power with average speed and a below-average hit. I’m 100% sure that it’ll get him to the majors – more than I’m willing to say about anyone below except Bergolla and Franklin – but I’m not ready to say he’ll be a starter. Most of that’s tied to the fact that he swings so frequently and has below average discipline, which without a potentially plus tool, will not work well in the majors. Even the White Sox simply have better options, but at age 22 he still has plenty of time to develop.
Where hath thou power gone, Christian Franklin? The answer is – into the ground. Every time his power has shown a bit, his GB rate has been under 50%, but he’s struggled to keep that number in check and it was 60% at AA last year. Can you imagine if he prioritizes launch angle? Man, I’d love to see how his notable raw power shows. As it is, his profile is fine – he’s fast enough to make the high GB rate work, he stole more bases than ever in 2024, and he can play all three OF positions. He’s a passive hitter, willing to work deep into counts and take all the walks and strikeouts that come with it, and he has excellent zone discipline. He’s a good bet to make it to the majors. But it’s still awfully hard to project exactly how viable he’d be in a starting role – maybe a bottom of the order-type as it stands? He is already 25, but no one is doubting the physical tools, it’s just how he implements them into the game. One to watch for sure.
Eddinson Paulino started slow at AA and an injury cost him a chunk of 2024. Together those two things bring his season line down, but make no mistake – he’s very close to knocking on the door. Now in the Blue Jays system, there’s not a lot keeping him from breaking through their thin depth to the majors in a utility infield role, but he also hasn’t been able to show out consistently to say he’ll be seizing that opportunity in early 2025. He doesn’t have a dynamic profile, but it’s also devoid of major defects. His contact rate is nothing special, and he chases too much and misses frequently when he does. But it’s all ameliorated by his ability to find barrels with enough frequency – it’s an ideal swing plane for line drives. He has some power (15 HR ceiling?) and some speed (25 SB ceiling?), but these aren’t special assets and to hit those ceiling numbers he’d need a full run. He’s a sum-of-the-parts type who needs a little bit of a tick up in his hit tool to make it as an MLB regular, but as far as reaching the majors? Sure, by mid-2026 as it stands. Not a strong hobby name though.
In the same org at the same level with some positional overlap as Paulino, Alex De Jesus is a far riskier prospect, but the reward may be greater. Mostly a 3B now, De Jesus has always had good raw power. However, his contact rate has also always been well below average. There’s nothing secret about his profile – what you see on the surface tells his complete picture. When he makes contact it’s usually good. He excelled at not selling out for power in the second half of his 2024 season, when he hit nearly .300 at AA. But as it always has been, it came with a K% near 30 within that success. I liked the changes he made, and there’s enough pop to stomach the high K%. He now just has to work on reintegrating power into his approach. None of this is easy, and it’s likely that De Jesus is a Quad-A profile. But the ceiling is there for the hobby.
Juan Guererro has never been much of a hobby name because his arm, speed, and power are all below average. The chips have been against him for a long time. Well, while his arm still isn’t good, he’s made the most of his speed, going 27/32 on SB attempts in 2024, which was a career high. And while his power is still below average, he did manage 30 XBH across High-A and AA, essentially a continuation of what he did at lower levels. His hit tool is the reason he’s at all interesting as a prospect. He’s a very aggressive hitter, but he’s great at making contact in the zone, and that .313 average he posted in AA tells us it tends to be rather good contact. Still, all this put together only gives us 4th OF vibes, right? That’s true, but I’d never bet against a guy who had a career year in 2024 and may reach the majors in late 2025.
Though Cesar Prieto has seen a ton of time in the high minors since 2022, he hasn’t ever broken through to a major league roster despite now entering his age-26 season. His surface numbers look pretty good, his K% is very low, and indeed his hit tool could theoretically play well. However, he has a poor understanding of the strike zone. His excessive chase leads to a lot of less-than-ideal contact (not much whiff though). He has an infield utility profile but he’s not a strong defender, nor is he fleet of foot on the bases. He’s an organizational depth piece who definitely won’t struggle to put bat to the ball should he see a call-up, but everything he does looks like empty calories. He’s very clearly not a hobby name to consider.
To put it bluntly, Benjamin Cowles is likely to make the majors but never have any sort of starting role. His positive attributes are that he can play any of the three infield positions, and he showed increased maturity at the plate in 2024. I’d hope so, now entering his age-25 season. His hit tool has a chance to be fringe-average, but the aggression and ability to put the ball in play he displayed covers up just how much he actually whiffed – something likely to be exposed in the long term. The power he showed in 2024 is even more of a facade – I doubt he dances with double digit HR in the majors. His speed is fringy as well in terms of being a base stealing threat. He’s simply not a better option than the infield depth the Cubs have now, but should injuries occur they’ll have him on the 40-man ready to be called up for a bench role.
Braxton Fulford was a 6th Round catcher senior sign in the 2021 Draft, and he’s met the expectations of that status in reaching AA. But there’s a chance he’s more than that, and could stick as a MLB backup catcher. He threw out a very respectable 34% of baserunners and was otherwise a positive defender. He also showed a little pop and even had a double digit BB%. One thing he’s not is Drew Romo – Fulford is below him in all aspects of his game, is three years older, and hasn’t touched AAA yet. But the Rockies did invite him to Spring Training to take a look, so there’s a chance he’s the guy to step into the backup catcher role should an injury befall Jacob Stallings or Romo.
2022 january 15 signees
It’s hilarious that, other than Jaison Chourio, the top 2022 J15 in this product is…a pitcher? It’s rare that Topps even bothers to include J15 pitchers because it’s such a low hit rate and they take so long to develop. But Jarlin Susana has been highly regarded this entire time. He’s still very rough around the edges with his command, but man is his stuff loud. His fastball is into triple digits with regularity and averages over 99 MPH with plenty of armside run. His traditional high-80’s slider is also easily a plus offering. It’s extremely easy to see him as a future closer, and that’s a floor. But he’s also only 21 years old for 2025 and already went over 100 innings at High-A. He struggled early in the year but he rounded into form nicely – from July 1 on his BB% was under 10, his K% was an amazing 37.4, and he limited hitters to a .218 average. Those numbers, though nice, are hurt by two bad outings, and the common thread in those is walks. If he cleans that up, he could be an ace in a few years. The upside is clear. He’s certainly an important prospect to the Nationals, and treated as such in the hobby.
Of all the 2022 J15 prospects in this release, it’s hard to debate that William Bergolla has advanced the farthest in his development. He played all year at High-A at age 19 and posted a 99th percentile contact rate both in the zone and out. That showed in his performance as well, totaling a .300 average. The negative is that he’s able to make such extreme contact because he has almost zero power. His speed also isn’t special, and since he’s a small dude at 5’9”, he’s just a 2B. His ceiling simply isn’t very high, which wasn’t totally what we expected a few years ago. Underpinning my assessment is his mid-season trade to the White Sox. It was a 1-for-1 swap with…Tanner Banks (who’s apparently a late-blooming 33 year old middle reliever). It’s just not a great sign hobby-wise, but the upshot is that he could still prove himself to be a hitting savant in the mold of Luis Arraez.
I could write a full-blown treatise with my thoughts on Anthony Gutierrez. He was at High-A all season at age 19 where he showed out with his speed and defense in CF, swiping 37 bags in just 71 games. But we should treat the rest of his line with a grain of salt not just because of his youth for the level, but because he had a shoulder injury that has nagged him for two years and sapped his power and caused a bit of IL-time. He did finally get surgery in July to correct it, so we’ll see how he looks in 2025. What I don’t think the surgery will fix is his prolific tendency to chase outside of the zone, where most of his whiffs occur. He’s pretty good at making contact in the zone though, and with a reconstructed shoulder, a pretty swing at a good plane, and an ideal body frame, I wonder how much power he can get to. Nobody knows. I’ve always been interested in Gutierrez, but he probably needs to get to some power and tone down the chase a touch to make it as a MLB regular.
I predicted a breakout before 2024 for Ricardo Cabrera. While that didn’t happen, he had a decent year at Low-A and remains a prospect with some significant intrigue. His main issue at the plate is maturity. He’s a very aggressive hitter with a propensity to chase and has just an average contact rate. But that aggression makes the contact rate perfectly palatable because he is above average at putting bat to ball in an ideal manner. His K% was not a concern. Altogether, between all the weak contact you can imagine happens with his lack of approach, he still had 11 HR and 22 2B at age 19. I’d love to see what he looks like if he takes a few more pitches – but it’s also completely possible he’s just not good at pitch identification, so there’s considerable risk. I think his power is potentially above average, and coupled with performance that may have him moving up to High-A to man 3B in Dayton for 2025 I’m still very much in on him as a dart throw.
Keep in mind that Samuel Zavala was left to struggle at High-A all year, and he was a teen for a significant portion of the season. I really don’t know what that accomplished – there was no improvement as the year went on. However, between all the struggle he did post a .340 OBP with 8 HR. So it was just a slide from what he did in previous years – there was no cliff. He’s still a polished hitter for his age – he rarely chased (94th% O-Swing) and his SwStr was just 7.3% – those are very clearly elite markers. But he’s also quite passive at the plate and he was merely average with his contact rate. That’ll affect performance every day of the week. To escape it all he needs to drop the “for his age” caveat and find a better balance to his approach. He’s more than just a hit tool guy too. There’s potentially at least average pop in his bat, and he’s a quality OF defender (he likely ends up in a corner though). The hobby has completely soured on him, but Zavala is definitely not close to busting.
That Won-Bin Cho struggled mightily at High-A in his age-20 season should not be a surprise. He was a 2022 J15, just an older one coming from Korea, and everyone knew he was raw offensively coming in. It was more surprising that he posted 7 HR and a .376 OBP in 2023 at Low-A, prompting that move up. He’s a high ceiling outfield defender – that’s always shown and it keeps him well regarded in the Cardinals system. Though he did show good discipline in not chasing, he whiffed on too many of the pitches he did chase. He improved his zone contact numbers in the middle third of the season (resulting in a .318/.402/.438 from June 1-July 15), but as wear and tear got to him he fell off significantly. In total, those contact numbers look quite poor all around. In short, he was simply outmatched at the level. All the tools are there for his K% to tick well back into the 20’s, and that’s what we need to see for him to get back on track with both his above average raw power and as a prospect altogether. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of Won-Bin Cho as a prospect of significance.
Power and defense. That’s what Roderick Arias brings to the table, but the rest of his game is so unrefined that it’s hard to imagine a definite path to the majors right now for the former top international signee. Such is the case for many, I realize, but he’s actually showing some of the promise that had him so highly touted. Only a few players from his J15 class hit more HR’s in 2024, and none of them are in this product. While he remains raw defensively at SS he possesses extreme athleticism, so there’s no indication he’ll be moved off the position anytime soon. That athleticism has also allowed him to steal a ton of bases. He’s an aggressive hitter who swings a ton but tightens up with two strikes, so he does still earn a fair share of walks. If only he’d stop swinging for the fences so frequently, I wonder how far below 30 his K% would drop. I don’t know where he’s going but he remains a dynamic low-minors player heading into his age-20 season.
Same as he always has been, Rosman Verdugo looks like an an all-or-nothing power bat. He has shown enough discipline to post really solid OBP numbers, but it’s at low levels so it’s hard to say if that’ll continue. His contact rate is really bad, guys. Even in Low-A it was under 70%. He does have the fallback of being a high-ceiling defender at 3B though, so he should hang around for several more years where we’ll get to see if he can hit a better balance point of power, approach, and contact. Also keep in mind, he’s only 20 all year and has already seen some time at High-A.
It’s hard to know what to make of Yasser Mercedes. He had a fantastic 2024, no doubt, finishing second in the FCL in wRC+ (behind Franklin Arias). Hitting .330 isn’t easy anywhere. And even though he was repeating the league, like many of these 2022 J15’s he’s young enough (entering his age-20 season now) that it was appropriate. However, his brief move up to Low-A was ugly and underpins some bigger issues. Even though his swing frequency was likely reigned in by coaching, he chased way too much. It’s not a great sign that his natural proclivity is still to swing at pitches he can’t square up. The organization also told us this by not calling him up until the end of the Complex season. Still, he has explosive potential with his bat. A very nice 44% of his hits went for extra bases last year, and that’s something that should be a calling card of Mercedes. He just needs to improve on his hit tool, and he’s a prototypical OF corner power bat. He’s just a long way away yet. Proceed with caution.
Similar to Mercedes, Yordany De Los Santos tore up the FCL in his repeat. The difference is that he saw significant time in Low-A in both years, and he posted a wRC+ of 72 twice. But he’s found different ways to fail – it’s not a groundhog day situation. In 2023 his Low-A K% spiked to an unseemly number, but in 2024 it was quality of contact that was his bugaboo. He simply chases too much, but it’s a positive sign that a significant number of the whiffs converted to poor contact. Now he just needs to show some actual ability to identify pitches. When and if he does, there’s some significant thump in his bat – with those improvements I would not be shocked to see him pop 12-15 HR in 2025. Still, we can’t discuss him as having a projection to the majors at this juncture – he’s just proven to be too raw.
I wasn’t at all surprised to see Jonathan Mejia stay at the Complex this past year. A 2023 season that saw him hit .159 leaves a lot of scars. Well, I’m happy to report that his 2024 season was much, much improved. But in a drastically good way, not in a nowhere-to-go-but-up way. He showed off a lot of the tools that made him one of the top 2022 J15, slashing .299/.395/.425 while stealing 19 bases in 49 games. The downsides are that he’s now at least a year behind most of his peers, he still had some chase and K issues, and he’s moved mostly to 2B. But hey, there’s some hope in building off a successful season now, right?
Simon Juan was one of the youngest J15’s in the 2022 class, and he’ll still be playing a significant portion of the 2025 season as a teenager. It’s more important that he showed improvement on a poor 2023 FCL season than it was to reach full-season ball. Mission accomplished. He’s an aggressive hitter, but a little maturity has brought an ability to find more barrels – if anything, his power is likely to show through as he moves up. I’m not so sure about his hit tool, but he’s earned the promotion to St. Lucie this year at least. At 6’0” with what’s becoming a stockier muscular build, he’s a RF prototype that still plays some CF. Keep an eye on him.
He hasn’t looked awful, but Samuel Munoz’s hit tool needs to tick back up to having plus projection. He does not have a profile that otherwise leaves him as a valuable piece in the Dodgers organization. He could still have that plus hit tool, and with fringe-average everywhere else he’d make it to the majors, but at Low-A he just didn’t perform all that well in his age-19 season. Why do I think his hit tool still has potential despite hitting .229? Well, it’s because he’s already great at not chasing. All he needs to figure out better make meaningful contact on the pitches he’s already swinging at. There’s not even any launch angle concerns. He’s *right there* with everything that matters most to his profile. Still only 20 until September, he has plenty of time to figure things out. I’m just not sure he projects as being relevant for the hobby at this juncture.
Once upon a time much of the hobby was high on Cristhian Vaquero. Remember that blissful 10 months? Then he started to show massive swing-and-miss issues and continued to not show the plus raw power that was promised. Sadly, that trend has continued. He got more aggressive in 2024 in an effort to give himself more chances to make hard contact with frequency – I like that change in approach for him – but it didn’t pay dividends by any means. In fact, his K% reached a career high 34, his ISO remained under .115, and his contact rate was abysmally in the mid-60’s. Vaquero still has a cannon for an arm and is still a plus runner – so he’ll remain interesting for the Nationals. But I think it’s completely fair for the hobby to remain stepped back from him until he shows some sort of offensive skill.
Ryan Reckley was downright abysmal in 2023 at the Complex, so it was an easy decision to have him repeat in 2024. He started late, but was promoted at the end of the ACL season (32 games) in which he smacked 9 XBH and sported a .450 OBP. He had hardly settled into Low-A when he was injured in mid-July, and did not return. Altogether it was a step in the right direction, but there's so, so much work to be done. Reckley does not have issues with pitch identification – he’s not passive, yet had the discipline to run a 15 BB%. He just swings so hard that whiffing is a feature of his approach. So yeah, he should continue to run a high BABIP, but that K% dropping under 30% while maintaining his dynamism at the plate will likely prove to be a massive challenge moving forward. He’s well built, but also just a 2B without much speed. I am not high on the likelihood of him making it to the majors.
other prospects
Yerlin Confidan still easily has plus raw power, and his 2024 season was a building block. Of course, he was repeating Low-A at age 21, so he really had to show us something. Indeed, being at the top of the scale for 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (109.7 MPH) is something. However, for a guy who hits the ball this hard, too many were on the ground – he only hit 9 HR. His above average aggression and below average contact rate are within norms for a power hitting profile, but until he learns to elevate we can’t truly call him that. His bottom line doesn’t look spectacular as a result. Still I’m willing to give him a shot as he moves to High-A for the first time in hopes he can continue to evolve as a hitter. Considering all that power, I do think there’s enough of a hit tool to maybe one day make it as a power-centric MLB starting OF. He’s just not close, and has many, many hurdles to clear.
If Nathan Hickey were a good defensive catcher this writeup would be entirely different. But he's not, underpinned by his throwing out under 10% of baserunners and seeing significant time at 1B at AAA. Hickey has always run a high BB rate, and much of it is passivity, but he’s also really good at not chasing outside the zone. His issue is that he just can’t make enough contact, regularly running low BABIPs and a K% near 30. His power is above average for a catcher, but that’s not enough to carry him considering he’s not an MLB-quality backstop. He’s not a surefire MLB player even now at age 25, and he certainly won’t hold down a job as a regular backup catcher.
Ignore what Mason Auer did in the low minors a few years ago – those types of numbers are not something that ever should have been expected of the former JuCo 5th Rounder. He’s never going to sniff even a .425 SLG, is what I mean. His ability to do, well, anything in 2024 was hampered almost all year by a wrist injury. He came back to AA too soon in late April, missed a few more weeks, then came back and struggled to drive the ball for the entire season. That’s also not who he is. Auer hits the ball in the air too much considering his plus speed, and it’s not by design. He swings and misses a lot but he counteracts that with aggression, which leads to a lot of weak fly balls. I’d love to see a swing change that brings more grounders and more contact – he hits the ball plenty hard when healthy. The Rays are sure to be patient with him headed into his age 24 season because he is an excellent OF defender, and a really good baserunner. There’s still nothing that looks like an approach that will get him to the majors to date, but he’s worth a dart throw.
Leo Balcazar doesn’t turn 21 until June and already has a full year of experience at High-A. That after playing in only 18 games in 2023 at Low-A due to injury, with no prior experience at that level. So he was really thrown into the fire this past year, and he held his own, especially defensively at SS where he showed solid glove-work. At the plate he took a fair amount of pitches, but a below average contact rate and too much chase put him in poor counts. While his K% wasn’t bad, his 3.4 BB% is. Without plus tools otherwise at the plate, more than anything else, his approach is going to need to change. The good thing is that it’s probably tied to being challenged at the level more than truly a dropoff. Balcazar might sniff an average hit tool at maturity with 10-12 HR pop, and with his being above average defensively, there’s definitely a path to the majors. He just has to regain his approach, and a little bit of hobby relevance should come with it.
Yeison Morrobel doesn’t look much like the speedy hit-tool centric guy we thought he was anymore. At 6`2”, he looks more in the 200 lbs neighborhood now. He didn’t run much and was deployed more in RF at High-A. He does have a decent approach at the plate and makes a good amount of contact. However, his long, stiff swing doesn’t do his overall quality of contact many favors. It’s a swing that looks geared to do damage to the pull side and little else. It resulted in an abysmally low .258 BABIP. My thought is that he gained muscle to try to tap into power, but it cost him a lot of his identity as a prospect. There’s definitely some appeal here if he learns how to strike a balance between who he is and who he was, getting to actual power (15-20 HR ceiling) while getting on-base at a high clip. But to me, his ceiling looks like it’s congealing on everything surrounding a 4th OF-type, which is rarely relevant for the hobby.
Similar to his org-mate Chandler Simpson, Dru Baker does not try to drive the ball at all. He simply puts the bat to the ball with a flat swing and lets his wheels do the rest. That was a new approach for Baker in 2024, likely an effort to keep his K numbers in check as he moved up to AA. He sacrificed all his (marginal) power to do it, but he did maintain his overall performance. There’s nothing special about his contact or chase rates, but slap, slap, slap worked. The speed is what we’re here for though. It’s clearly a plus asset that’s allowed him to steal over 40 bases each of the past two seasons and play all three OF positions. I think being a complete power vacuum is something he’s done by choice – will he find a way to integrate a little bit of impact back into his game? If he finds that little-bit-of-pop, he could be a second division regular for a team that needs speed someday. Already 25 on Opening Day though, that someday would be in late bloom.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s not much hobby significance to Alexander Suarez because he’ll be older if he makes it and there’s a bit of a limited profile. However, in seeing High-A for the first time in 2024 he made great strides as the season went on. He went out to an injury in early August, but from June 30 forward he slashed .329/.366/.487. It was backed up by his swing data, which showed that he started taking more pitches – not to the point of taking walks – but it’s clear he was getting a better idea of when to swing. He's still a hyper-aggressive hitter. His BB% was under 5. He chases a ton. But as long as he’s getting to power he’ll be interesting, and he did in 2024 – it was 9 HR in only 63 games. Now for the more negative thing – he’s already 23 and hasn’t seen AA. His defensive profile is better suited to LF, and his speed will ultimately be just average. If he were two years younger he’d be more interesting, but as it is he’s worth only a basement-level flyer to me.
The sum total of BJ Murray Jr’s performance is less than the sum of his parts. I truly do think he’s an MLB-quality below average across the board offensively. That should certainly show with a AAA average well above the Mendoza line and a SLG over .350, right? Well, it didn’t for Murray last year. There was an injury to explain part of it, but the rest was…bad luck? Now 25 years old, we can hope that he rebounds well enough to claim a bench role at some time this year or next – he does play a solid 3B and has experience at 1B as well. But more than that? Probably not. He’s not on the hobby radar.
Jake Rucker showed some nice improvements to his plate skills in his repeat of AA while maintaining his below-average power numbers. He’s really great at not chasing, but he’s also hyper-aggressive in the zone and excels at making contact. This is the type of savvy hitter that eventually gets a shot as long as he can execute. However, I don’t know what that shot would look like, as he’s not rangy in the field, nor does he have a great arm. He’s definitely an ignore for the hobby at large.
Danny De Andrade can really stick it at SS, but he went out with an ankle injury in late May and did not return. It’s hard to ignore a significant ankle injury to a SS – that’s one reason he’s further down here. He doesn’t have other tools that will have him definitely sticking in the majors – playing SS is an important part of his profile. He’s an aggressive hitter that’s good at putting bat to ball but quality of contact suffers as a result of swinging so frequently. There’s some power in his bat but it should check in at just below average as a ceiling. His speed should continue to afford him some steals, but he’s not a burner. You see the profile here, right? He’s a utility guy whose real value comes from defense. He’s not a strong hobby name, but my hope is that he recovers to being a decent real-life prospect for 2025 in his age-21 season.
Sometimes a player moves up levels and their weaknesses just look more and more exposed, and they’re unable to adjust. That appears to be the case with Willy Vasquez, who posted a wRC+ of 73 in AA this past year in AA. It's been a negative trend for three years running now, as his power has evaporated, he’s making less contact, and the contact he is making has become weaker. He’s just shown no ability to identify pitches whatsoever, and he chases way too much. It lines up perfectly with the trend line of his facing more advanced pitching, and his decline. It’s a shame that his plus raw power seems to be going to waste now.
Adrian Placencia is case study #1 on the Angels not caring what anyone but them thinks about where their prospects should be. In 2023 he was at High-A for most of the year where he wasn’t great offensively, but saw a little time in AA at the end. He also worked in the AFL that year. Then in 2024 he was…deployed to Low-A? Though he showed some pop there (as he did in 2022) and his approach was solid (.411 OBP) he still sported a K% over 30 before he was moved back up to High-A. And then he looked worse at High-A last year than he did in 2023. Maybe the Angels shouldn’t be doing this to their prospects? Anyhow, Placencia’s forte is defense at SS, and his secondary tool is supposed to be his hit – but it’s not showing at all beyond Low-A, and as he’ll be 22 in June, the clock is really ticking now.
Angels case study #2 is Arol Vera. He was moved up to AA at the end of 2023 despite posting an OBP under .290 and some really bad plate metrics. He stayed there to begin 2024, but 76 games, 11 XBH, and a .234 OBP later, even the Angels had mercy and demoted him back to High-A. Even though he’s a strong defender at 2B & 3B, he simply needs to hit more. These punchless statlines just keep rolling in year after year, and now at age 22 it’s time to put up some real numbers, or I fear he’ll be done.
Junior Perez hasn’t hit over .250 or had a K% under 30% since 2019 in Complex ball. Yet, he keeps getting promoted in reasonable timing relative to his age. It’s because his approach at the plate is sound, and he’s a better defender and runner than he’s generally given credit for. In short he provides value to the organization. If he can ever sniff an average contact rate, he’d be a 4th-OF type. But right now I see his only path to the majors as one that won’t generate any hobby interest.
Quick Hits: A pitcher’s W-L record rarely tells us much, but Thomas Farr went 1-17 in 2024. He’s proven his durability, but he likely doesn’t miss enough bats and gives up too much hard contact to ever make it…Tanner McDougal has better stuff than Farr but his command is pretty terrible. Still only 22, there’s time for him to convert to a relief role…There’s never been anything exciting about Parker Chavers’ offensive or defensive game and he’s only played in 17 AA games headed into a 2025 season that will see him turn 27…Andy Thomas’ defense behind the plate has kept him as a relevant organizational depth piece even though he turns 27 in June. He was taken in the AAA phase of the Rule V draft and heads to the Padres org now…Also 27 in June, Quincy Hamilton has the Astros’ interest as a versatile OF piece who slugged over .450 in AAA. He was sent to the AFL last fall and has an invite to big-league camp…Collin Burns has a solid defensive resume as a infield utility piece, but he’s so squarely below average on the offensive side that it’s fair to question if he ever makes it…I hate to put a player so young down here but Alexis Herenandez saw two stints on the Development List in 2024 amidst hitting .144 with a 37 K% at Low-A…Similarly, Yendry Rojas and Luis Meza are still young but haven’t yet left the Complex League and haven’t learned to drive the ball – their career ISO’s sit under .080…They don’t send random prospects to the AFL so there is some regard for Daniel Vazquez, but it’s all on the defensive side. He’s been at Low-A for three years now and has only 44 XBH in over 260 games… Danyer Cueva is a 2B profile who hasn’t shown great contact skills, and definitely lacks power, but he did fight through some struggles to reach High-A at age 20…Willy Fanas was a 2022 J15 but he was signing a year late, so that he hasn’t seen anything resembling success in full season ball is more significant…Jaden Rudd (age 22), Daniel McElveny (21), CJ Rodriguez (24), and Maikol Hernandez (21) haven’t seen the high minors, nor have they shown to enough impact to get there (all have a career SLG under .300)…I don’t know if it’s all injuries or not but Luis Chevalier has only seen 151 games since his pro debut in 2019, mostly at the Complex. Not great for a 23 YO…
conclusion
With autographs of both Chourios, Rafaela, Merrill, and House there’s a nice top end. There’s also some potential with (insert your favorite J15 here) because he’s still young. Yanquiel Fernandez, Rayne Doncon, and even Christian Franklin could yet see much brighter days in the hobby. With so few pitchers, your (yes you, generic collector) odds of getting something you’re interested in following are better than most releases. This is, to date, a deeper and stronger release than 2022 Bowman, but I don’t know how much that’s saying.