Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | MIL | LHP | 3 | 50 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | CH | Cnt/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 55 | 40 | 55 | 60/55 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Anthony Franco
Age: 24 yr
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215 lbs
Hits/Throws: L/L
Acquired: 2019 Draft, Round 1
RuleV: 2022
Physical Description: Listed at 6'4, 215. Tall, thin, lanky frame. Skinny lower half, still might be room for a little more muscle mass in the thighs. No remaining physical projection in shoulders.
Delivery & Mechanics: Sets up on extreme first base side of the rubber, creating tough angle for left-handed hitters. Intentionally varies tempo to mess with hitters' timing. Gets down mound well and generates plus extension. Exaggerated dip of front (right) shoulder just before release creates over-the-top arm slot that drives the whole profile. Plus on-mound athlete with fluid, whippy arm action.
Fastball: 88-91 MPH, occasionally up to 92. Plus-plus vertical movement; over-the-top arm slot enables a ton of backspin on heater and creates the illusion of ride. Pitch stays on plane and confuses hitters; most obviously effective when elevated for whiffs but also plays for called strikes in the bottom third of the zone from hitters who expect it to sink below the knees. Despite below-average velocity, it's an above-average pitch, evidenced by opposing hitters' poor swing decisions. Small knows this and throws his fastball at a very high rate. Grade: 55
Curveball: 72-76 MPH. Well below-average depth for a breaking ball this soft. Has a little bit of 1-7 action but is clearly his third pitch. Grade: 40
Changeup: 76-78 MPH. Inconsistent break; will get some sink when he stays on top but has a tendency to sail on him or even cut glove-side. Plus velocity gap off fastball (10-12 MPH) drives the effectiveness. Grade: 55
Control and Command: Plus athleticism, throws a high volume of strikes. Better control of fastball than secondaries; particularly adept at spotting fastball up and arm-side. Vertical arm slot can inhibit his ability to work glove-side but throws strikes with ease. Control: 60 | Command: 55
Overall: Small's one of the more fascinating pitching prospects in the sport. His fastball has elite vertical life that generates tons of whiffs despite pedestrian velocity. Small used it early and often his junior season at Mississippi State. Opposing hitters in the nation's best conference knew it was coming, still couldn't hit it, and Small rode one of college baseball's best seasons in recent memory to first-round status. Milwaukee limited his innings in his few pro starts after draft day in 2019. The cancellation of the 2020 minor-league season means we still haven't seen Small work through pro lineups three times. He doesn't really have a useable breaking ball, and that lack of repertoire depth could present a challenge for him getting deep into games (although his odd angle for left-handed hitters could help mitigate that). Already 24 years old, he should move quickly.
OFP: 50
Role: 50 - #4 or #5 SP
Risk: Moderate
