USA Baseball Releases 2024 NHSI Lineup

The 16-team field has been unveiled for the eleventh edition of the National High School Invitational, one of the most prestigious prep tournaments on the scouting calendar. The tournament, which USA Baseball hosts, will take place at the National Training Complex in Cary, North Carolina from April 10th to April 13th.

The single-elimination style tournament has a rich history of draft talent that has come through the gates since its inception in 2012. The likes of Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Max Fried, and Lucas Giolito have stepped foot in the complex, as well as recent top draft picks in Dylan Lesko, Mikey Romero, Jack Leiter, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. In 2023, the tournament added three more first-rounders to its resume, with Noble Meyer, Adrian Santana, and Ralphy Velasquez putting together excellent outings last April. Velasquez recorded six hits throughout the tournament and took home All-Tournament honors, while Meyer struck out ten in seven stellar innings in a tough-luck loss to Calvary Christian. Santana utilized the event to show off his burgeoning toolset, which culminated in the Rays selecting him at 31st overall. Overall, nine players who participated in the 2023 edition were drafted last July.

This year’s lineup features a stout lineup, including reigning champions Huntington Beach and the return of three-time champions Orange Lutheran. Florida and California have four teams apiece with North Carolina and Arizona being the only other states with multiple participants. This will be the first time in tournament history that two in-state schools appear in Cary, plus the District of Columbia is being represented for the first time. Here is the full lineup of teams:

• Apex Friendship (Apex, NC)

• Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV)

• Casteel (Queen Creek, AZ)

• Chaparral (Scottsdale, AZ)

• Corona (Corona, CA)

• Farragut (Knoxville, TN)

• Hagerty (Oviedo, FL)

• Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, CA)

• Huntington Beach (Huntington Beach, CA)

• Key West (Key West, FL)

• Orange Lutheran (Orange, CA)

• Puyallup (Puyallup, WA)

• St. John’s College (Washington, D.C.)

• St. John’s Country Day (Orange Park, FL)

• Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL)

• Wesleyan Christian Academy (High Point, NC)

There’s an impressive lineup of prospects in the 2024 class that’ll take the field in Cary, but there’s also high-end talent in the 2025 and 2026 classes that are worth paying attention to. We’ll tease a few of our new Top 100 rankings in this list (which will come out later this week), but here’s a list of prospects to keep an eye on in all three classes come April 10th:

2024s:

• LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, Corona (#13)

• RHP/SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake (#14)

• OF Derek Curiel, Orange Lutheran (#22)

• LHP Mason Russell, Casteel (#50)

• RHP Duncan Marsten, Harvard-Westlake (#73)

• C Burke-Lee Mabeus, Bishop Gorman (#79)

• C Josh Springer, Corona (#82)

• LHP Talan Bell, Hagerty

• UTL Chris Newstrom, Chaparral

• RHP Cade O’Leary, Farragut

• RHP Nathan Aceves, Huntington Beach

• RHP Tommy Bridges, Harvard-Westlake

• SS Gabe Fraser, Orange Lutheran

• OF Kyle Boylston, St. John’s Country Day

• RHP Felix Ong, Key West

• SS Austin Jacobs, Hagerty

• C Kailand Halstead, Puyallup

• OF Brennon Seigler, Farragut

2025s:

• RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona

• SS Brady Ebel, Corona

• RHP/SS Billy Carlson, Corona

• RHP Josh Hammond, Wesleyan Christian Academy

• RHP Sam Cozart, Wesleyan Christian Academy

• OF Josiah Hartshorn, Orange Lutheran

• C Trent Grindlinger, Huntington Beach

• SS Linkin Garcia, Huntington Beach

• OF Domaine Vann, Wesleyan Christian Academy

• SS Mason Pike, Puyallup

2026s:

• OF Brady Harris, Trinity Christian Academy

• RHP Ethan Wheeler, Trinity Christian Academy

• OF Ryan Harwood, Casteel

• C Brady Murrieta, Orange Lutheran

• RHP Brayden Harris, Trinity Christian Academy

Deep(er) Drives: Alabama's Ben Hess

Deep(er) Drives is back and now that we’ve closed the book on the 2023 draft class, it’s time to start diving into some of the more interesting prospects in this year’s class. There are admittedly some questions left to be answered in this class, especially in the college arm demographic. There’s a lot of upside, especially in the upper echelon of this class. Here are the arms that I firmly believe are in that echelon:

• RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

• RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

• LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Burns is the top arm for us and it’s easy to see why. It’s a loud one-two punch with very solid mechanics, though we’d like to see improvements in secondaries and how the stuff plays over lengthier starts. Brecht and Smith are hampered by command woes but have insanely loud metrics. They’ve both shown improvements this fall, with Brecht showcasing smoother mechanics and Smith adding more velocity, touching triple digits in Fayetteville. However, if there was another name that I could add to this tier, had they been fully healthy, it would be Alabama’s Ben Hess.

Maybe it’s a bit bold to say that, but what Hess was doing pre-injury was nothing short of extraordinary. Hess was having a breakout year through seven starts, posting a 3.22 ERA across 36.1 innings and recording a remarkable 49:8 K:BB ratio. Hess’s stuff took a significant uptick and was a big piece to the puzzle for his emergence, but there’s a lot more under the hood when you dive deeper into his profile. So what else led to Hess’ rise and what has to happen in 2024? Let’s dive in.

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The uptick in strikes is the first thing that pops out when looking into Hess’ success. With his 2022 and 2023 seasons being a similar sample size, it’s a bit easier to note the difference. Between the seasons, here are the numbers:

Hess’ command was certainly a weak spot in 2022, but the jump in strikes that we saw in 2023 is quite underrated, particularly with the heater. At 62% in 2022, this resulted in the fastball not performing to the best of its ability. For reference, his fastball was in the zone just 51% of the time and there is a correlation between fastball performance and zone percentage. The higher the zone percentage, the better the fastball plays in the zone. This wasn’t the only change that occurred to the heater, and we’ll get to that later, but the results do speak for themselves. Here are those numbers:

Seeing a substantial jump like that in the zone certainly draws attention to you. In turn, Hess’ walk rate dropped to a minuscule 5.47%, dropping from the 13.48% mark he posted as a freshman. We'd like to see how the command plays over a full season, especially since Hess has yet to eclipse the 40-inning barrier, but we feel confident that the command will be roughly the same in 2024.

The next thing on the list to talk about is the fastball itself. Hess’ heater projects as a plus offering in our eyes, making it one of the best collegiate fastballs in the class. I’m a big fan of a heater that misses bats and that’s exactly what you get here. Missing bats at a 34% clip in his 36.1 inning sample this spring, Hess’ success has come as a result of tweaks at his release and his average velocity creeping into the mid-90s. As a freshman, Hess averaged 93.2 MPH and tickled 95 MPH, and given the size and athleticism, more was expected to come along. His velocity jumped forward as a sophomore, averaging 94.7 MPH and he brushed 99 MPH on a couple of occasions. At this point, he’s still in a recovery mode from his injury suffered in March, which we will touch on more later, but he’s already been up to 96 MPH in side sessions and there could be more in the tank this spring, but time will tell on that.

Credit: Ryan Ferron (@FerronRyan) on Twitter

One big change in the fastball metrics resides in the pitch’s Vertical Approach Angle, or VAA for short. VAA is the angle at which the pitch approaches the plate and it’s become a popular asset with pitch development. When it comes to four-seam fastballs, like Hess’, the average we look for is -5 degrees. Anything lower than that mark (i.e. -4.5 degrees) is optimal, as it gives the pitch a leg up at the top of the zone. Anything higher than that mark (i.e. -6 degrees) hampers four-seamers and will be more suitable for sinkers/two-seamers at the bottom of the zone. With Hess, his VAA dropped four-tenths of a degree from -5.1 to -4.7, and with the increase in velocity, the pitch began to perform at a higher degree. This was likely due to a slight tweak in wrist orientation at release, as that helps create a flatter plane to the plate.

In terms of shape, Hess features a pitch with slightly above-average carry, registering 17.4 inches, and a large amount of arm-side run, coming in at 13.5 inches. I’ve created a scatter chart with the fastball metrics of our Top 50 College arms to compare Hess’ shape (which is surrounded by a black circle) to others:

Hess traded half an inch of carry for half an inch of run in 2023, giving him the third-highest horizontal movement mark amongst our Top 50 College arms. Add high spin rates to the mix and you’ve got a recipe for success. There is a comparison I’d like to make, and maybe it’s a bold one to use, but I’ll do it anyway: Hess’ 2023 heater is comparable to Chase Dollander’s 2022 metrics.

I must add that this is strictly going off the pure movement metrics, as the sample size difference between the two is substantial (Dollander doubled Hess’ fastball total). Dollander’s 2022 fastball averaged ~17.6 inches of IVB and 12.4 inches of hMov, which isn’t too far off of what Hess had in 2023. Dollander has Hess beat in the VAA department, though, as Dollander’s VAA was half a degree lower and played a big role in his bat-missing stuff. Dollander’s heater tickled the 70-grade barrier before seeing some regression in the movement profile, and an argument can be made for Hess, too.

All in all, Hess’ heater is comfortably in the plus tier for me. There are not too many glaring flaws metrically and he passes the bat-missing test with flying colors. The 30% in-zone whiff rate and 29% chase rate are indicative of how successful the pitch has become and there’s no reason to think it won’t perform the same this upcoming spring unless something drastic occurs. I’d love to see how it plays over a full season.

Hess isn’t just fastball-reliant, though. He has three off-speed pitches that are at least average or better and at least one with legitimate plus potential. We’ll start with that pitch and it’s the upper-70s curveball that has true hammer potential. He only threw it 11% of the time in 2023, the least of his secondaries, but it racked up whiffs over 50% of the time. He averages over 2,600 RPMs with his spin rate and it can get a bit slurvy, though most of the time, it’ll feature an 11/5 shape. It averages over 13 inches of depth, which gives him roughly 31 inches of vertical separation between this and the heater. Sprinkle in 15 inches of sweep on average and you’ve got yourself a banger. He throws it hard with intent and it really snaps over the plate, allowing him to utilize it for chases out of the zone and he’s got feel to land it for strikes. He’s still learning to command it better, but this is a potential plus pitch with legitimate swing-and-miss traits.

The change-up is his third pitch behind the curveball, giving him a viable option against left-handed hitters. It has the potential to be a power change in the mid-80s with a ton of horizontal movement away from lefties, averaging close to 17 inches. He does kill a good amount of spin on the pitch, though you can still classify it as a high-spin offering with it being around the 1,950 RPM mark. He does a good job of selling it with similar arm speed and likes to throw it in the zone often. As he continues to gain confidence in the pitch, he’ll begin to throw it down and in to righties more. I’m confident in slapping an above-average grade for the time being, but there’s a legitimate chance it can become plus with time.

Lastly, we’ll talk about Hess’ slider, which profiles as his fourth-best offering. He throws it hard in the upper-80s with cutter-esque movement, though the spin metrics aren’t as sharp as the curveball. It’s his most used secondary and he likes to command it away from righties/in on lefties, though it lacks consistent bite and doesn’t generate a ton of chases with it. It’s a fine average offering for now, but refinement is needed at the next level. He may opt to ditch the slider in the minor leagues and lean more on his curveball, but for now, he’s comfortable throwing it.

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Now that we’ve talked about the arsenal and command, let’s address the elephant in the room. Hess has been hampered by injuries during his collegiate career, limiting him to just 70 total innings. He missed the first three weeks of the 2022 season due to an injury and suffered a forearm strain during his start against Arkansas in late March, which ended his 2023 campaign. He’s been on the mend since, but when we spoke to Head Coach Rob Vaughn in October, Hess was throwing in side sessions and had a pitch count in a scrimmage against Florida State. The expectation is that Hess will slide into the Friday night role for the Crimson Tide.

“He’s been great. He feels 100% awesome. He’s been throwing bullpens…all of a sudden he popped a 96…he feels great.”

Alabama Head Baseball Coach Rob Vaughn gives an update and his thoughts on right-hander and MLB Draft prospect Ben Hess.

Full interview dropping Thursday! pic.twitter.com/cpt6sC3AgF

— Prospects Live (@ProspectsLive) October 25, 2023

Luckily for Hess, there’s been a bit less pushback from teams when it comes to elbow injuries. In the past few years, we’ve seen several highly regarded arms selected in the top 100 picks despite battling elbow ailments. Jaxon Wiggins and Teddy McGraw are two names that come to mind in last year’s class, as well as Dylan Lesko and Connor Prielipp in 2022. With that said, if Hess were to be a first-round selection this July, he’ll need a fully healthy spring. In the case that Hess suffers another injury, I still envision him being selected in the second or third round, especially with the weak prep class. Overall, this is a very talented arm that has shown that he has the stuff to be one of the best arms in the class. A plus heater that’s backed up by three average or better off-speed pitches and premium command is tough to come by in today’s game. Time will tell whether this becomes true or not, but expect Hess to make some noise come February.

2024 MLB Draft: Top 50 College Prospects

Director’s Note: All Draft Day Ages for players are pinned to July 14, 2024, our guess as to when the MLB Draft will start. The league has not announced the dates for the 2024 MLB Draft and once revealed, we will adjust approximate ages to that date. Furthermore, we do not own the rights to any images utilized in these lists and those rights belong to the proper individuals/organizations.

The link to our 2024 Top 50 High School board can be found here and our 2024 Prospect Footage can be found here.

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1. 2B/SS Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

Height: 6’0

Weight: 202

B/T: L/R

dRAFT dAY aGE: 21 yr 10 mo

An import from Australia, Bazzana's overall toolset is ridiculously impressive. He's put up incredible numbers in his two years at Oregon State, slashing .340/.463/.549 across two seasons in Corvallis with elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He's a really tough out at the plate, rarely expanding the zone and he's got an incredible eye, racking up walks aplenty. His spray chart is a thing of beauty, utilizing the entire field with a compact, line drive swing with a ton of bat speed that is meant to do serious damage. It's above-average juice at the present and most of it plays to his pull side, but he's shown an ability to hammer the ball to the opposite field gap. Bazzana is also an incredible runner, posting plus run times on a consistent basis. He's primarily been a second baseman up to this point, though there's a chance we see him at shortstop in 2024. He's got enough athleticism and twitch to have solid range there, though his arm is nothing more than average. Either way you draw it up, this is a potentially elite bat with suitable defense up the middle.

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2. 2b/3b j.j. wETHERHOLT, wEST vIRGINIA

hEIGHT: 5’10

wEIGHT: 190

b/t: l/r

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 10 mo

Wetherholt's bat has a chance to be very special, as the mix of pure hit and power tools profile as one of the best in the entire country. Wetherholt posts elite contact rates and seldom whiffs with impressive feel for the barrel. It's a compact and powerful swing from the left side of the plate, showcasing very quick hands and loud bat speed. Wetherholt utilizes the whole field to his advantage and will punish the gaps with legitimate above-average to plus power, which also plays well to his pull side. It's a truly special bat. He manned second base primarily in 2023, though he's got prior experience at the hot corner and one would expect him to see more time there in 2024. The range is there to handle the position, though the arm strength needs some improvement. He's a solid runner and knows how to be a menace on the basepaths, as well, recording 36 stolen bases in 2023.

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3. RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

Height: 6’4

Weight: 195

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo

Burns is an electric factory on the bump. The Wake Forest transfer is a bulldog type on the mound and he exudes all the confidence you want to see in a pitcher on the mound. He isn’t afraid to go right after batters with his electric fastball. What is an elite two-pitch mix, he sits in the upper-90s with significant life to the fastball and pairs it with a diabolical upper-80s/low-90s slider that he can manipulate the shape of. He also isn’t afraid to reach back on his fastball for a little extra and can get it up to 101-102 mph. He’s been working on a curveball and a splitter, but both pitches are still a work in progress with potential. His command can waiver at times, but when he is locked in, he can paint a masterpiece. Even with the command issues, the stuff is elite and it will be interesting to see what the Wake Forest pitching lab can do to elevate his already incredible arsenal to the next level.

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4. 1B NIck Kurtz, Wake Forest

Height: 6’5

Weight: 235

B/T: L/L

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 4 mo

Coming in at 6’5, 235lbs, Nick Kurtz is a monster of a human being at the plate. The size, strength, and power Kurtz possesses is a scout's dream. The Wake Forest first baseman has a scary good offensive profile. He is going to draw his fair share of walks due to his patience at the plate while also hitting for massive power thanks to his near 70-grade pop. On top of that, he’s got a well advanced approach at the plate and is able to use the entire field. Shockingly for his size, he is fairly athletic and can more than hold his own at first base. He’s one of the best defenders at first base and easily grades as a plus defender. Kurtz is a likely frontrunner to be the 2024 ACC Player of the Year and should be providing plenty of offense as the anchor for the Demon Deacons lineup. He has the makings of becoming a force in a big league lineup and will likely be a fast riser through the minors.

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5. OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 1 mo

Finding guys with five tool potential is a tough task, but Honeycutt has the potential to be that type of player. Honeycutt showed plenty of improvements in the strikeout department in 2023, dropping the strikeout rate significantly, though that came with the price of production. Nonetheless, Honeycutt has game-changing tools. There's plenty of bat speed from the right side of the plate and there's potentially plus power that plays to his pull side and he'll hit the gaps to show off his blazing speed. The swing-and-miss has toned down and he rarely chases, which is promising for the hit tool. If everything comes together in 2024, there's potential for an above-average hit tool here. He's a lock to stick in center field long term, as his plus speed gives him exceptional range and he'll make highlight reel plays on a consistent basis. There's a strong arm here, as well. If everything clicks, there's serious 1-1 potential.

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6. RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

Height: 6’4

Weight: 225

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 9 mo

Brecht may have the highest upside of any arm in this loaded college class and he's lit up Stuff+ models with some of the loudest stuff in the college landscape. Brecht has undergone some mechanical tweaks since his high school days, most notably being a shortened arm action that has given him more deception. It's a very quick arm with excellent athleticism, as well. He's gotten up to 101 MPH during starts in 2023, holding upper-90s velocity well throughout his starts, accuring whiffs at a high rate. The slider is the real deal, showing true double-plus potential with hellacious bite. It'll display shorter break with late lateral movement and he's shown an ability to land it for strikes when the fastball command is out of whack. He's tinkered with a low-90s change-up and a low-80s curveball, but he's primarily just had to use the FB-SL combination thus far. The high walk rate and command woes have been the big thing holding Brecht back, though he did show improved fastball command down the stretch for the Hawkeyes. He's stepped away from football and will be focusing solely on pitching moving forward, which is great news for his potential.

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7. 1B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia

Height: 6’6

Weight: 211

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 3 mo

The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year, Condon's unexpected emergence was a welcome sight. After redshirting his first year on campus, Condon exploded onto the scene with a .386/.484/.800 slash line and 25 home runs in 56 games. Condon has a towering, physical frame at 6'6, 211 pounds with plenty of strength throughout his body and there's quite a bit of projection to it still. Condon has plus raw power to all fields and got to it often in 2023, posting healthy exit velocities and even getting into the 110-115 MPH range. It's a ton of bat speed and very quick hands with the barrel exploding through the zone with little effort. There's some hitterish traits with Condon, as he has solid bat-to-ball skills, though he does have his struggles with spin. Defensively, Condon has enough speed and athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot, though if he outgrows the position, he can handle first base. The bat would have to continue to perform in that case and that's the selling point right now.

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8. C Jacob Cozart, NC State

Height: 6’3

Weight: 216

B/T: L/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 6 mo

Cozart is the latest to join a recent pipeline of NC State backstops and there's a chance he could be the best of the bunch. Instead of enduring a "sophomore slump," Cozart improved in all facets of his game, becoming a very well-rounded catcher with a budding bat. While he does struggle a bit with spin, Cozart's plate discipline is great and he's able to curb the strikeouts with solid contact rates. There's at least average power in his sweet lefty swing and it plays primarily to his pull side, but he's shown an ability to go up the middle and use the gaps. He shines on the defensive side, as he's one of the best defensive catchers in recent memory. He's a very good framer and has excellent actions behind the dish, as well as owning an above-average arm with solid pop times. It's above-average defense at the present with plus potential down the line. He was one of the best players to try out for the Collegiate National Team, as well.

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9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

Height: 6’2

Weight: 217

B/T: S/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 2 mo

Are you looking for someone with tools for days? Look no further than Braden Montgomery. The two-way star transferred to Texas A&M and will be looking to make an impact on both sides of the ball for the Aggies. He’s a force at the plate, as the switch-hitter has easy plus pop from both sides of the batter box. There were plenty of concerns about his approach and patience at the plate, but he greatly increased his walk rates and cut down on the strikeouts last year. He’s got the tools to project as a power corner outfielder as he has what might be the best arm in the draft class. It’s extremely accurate and has tons of carry. Montgomery also saw time on the bump as his fastball has been up to 97 MPH. He’s struggled quite a bit with command of his fastball, leading many to believe that he will eventually focus on being a bat only. He will likely be a day one call as many teams will want to take a shot on his physical tools and athleticism.

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10. 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone

Height: 6’5

Weight: 245

B/T: L/L

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo

Dubbed the "Ohtani" of college baseball, Caglianone is one of the most well-known players at the amateur level with legitimate two-way potential. There's a bit of rawness to his game, but the power on both sides of the ball are rather impressive. We'll start with the bat, which might have the best power in this entire class. It's easy double-plus at the present with extremely quick hand speed and torque, generating a ton of bat speed and all fields power. He's producing some of the loudest exit velocities in the country as a result. The hit tool could use some refinement, as he's rather aggressive and expands the zone frequently. On the defensive side, it's a first base profile. As an arm, Caglianone has loud stuff, but the command holds him back. The fastball has flirted with triple digits with some life, paired with a bullet-esque slider with solid potential. The change-up has excellent velocity separation and fading life, boasting a high whiff rate. The jury is still out on if he has to choose one or the other, but the upside on both sides is enticing.

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Prospects Live's Way-Too-Early 2024 Mock Draft

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again for consistency’s sake, the draft madness never ends. So, with the book now closed on the 2023 cycle, why not open the new book and dive into the 2024 cycle?

This is purely just for having some post-draft fun and is more of a practice in futility than legitimacy, but I’ll still put my best foot forward and put names to teams with a fifteen-pick mock. We’d go for the full first round, but doing so months before the lottery seems futile. We’ve already gotten plenty of solid looks at a good amount of players in this class, which will be a key part when we introduce our 2024 board updates later this summer.

Before we begin, here’s a look at what the lottery simulator randomized for this exercise. As a side note, while the Washington Nationals got the seventh pick, they’re going to be moved down to tenth. Here’s a quick rundown on why this is happening, written by Jim Callis last March: “Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.”

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#1 - Oakland Athletics: OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Preparatory School (LSU Commit)

Oakland got the short end of the deal in the 2023 lottery, dropping from a potential top-three pick to sixth overall, so the lottery plays nice this time around.

There’s only been one prep player to go 1.1 since 2018, Jackson Holliday in 2022. After reclassifying from the 2025 ranks, it’s easy to think that Konnor Griffin could be the next one. The size and physical projection stand out at first glance, but the toolset is extremely loud. It’s a polished hit tool and approach, burgeoning power, a plus run tool, as well as excellent defense in the outfield with a strong arm that has gotten up to 96 MPH. It’s legitimate five-tool potential here and guys like this don’t come around too often.

#2 - Detroit Tigers: 2B/SS Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

Detroit winds up being one of the biggest winners in this lottery, jumping up five spots from outside the lottery and up to the second overall selection.

It may be hot take material, but I’m not going to mince my words here: Travis Bazzana might just be the best collegiate bat in this class. The Aussie has terrorized Pac-12 pitching in his two years on campus thus far, showcasing a very polished hit tool with plenty of bat speed and a ton of contact. While he’s on the smaller side of the spectrum, the power he generates is rather impressive and robust. The profile is full of twitchiness, as well. He’s been limited to second base so far in Corvallis, but the expectation is that he’ll see time at shortstop in 2024.

#3 - St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

The Cardinals are another big winner in this lottery, jumping up three spots to third overall.

They just got done adding some firepower to their farm system with Chase Davis, so why not add some more on the bump? Burns is an absolutely electric factory, sitting in the upper-90s with a heater that can get up to 102 MPH and a plus slider in the upper-80s that profiles as one of the best pitches in this class. There is a promising change-up, as well as a curveball, in his arsenal, too. He just committed to Wake Forest out of the transfer portal, and if 2023 was any indication of what that pitching lab is capable of, Burns could very well be the best arm in this class.

#4 - Kansas City Royals: 2B/3B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

The Royals do drop a little bit in the lottery with the Tigers and Cardinals jumping them, but they still wind up with a top-five pick.

The college bat demographic appears to be the strongest part of this draft class, so why not dive into it with West Virginia superstar JJ Wetherholt? Wetherholt’s bat is one of the best in the country. It’s a short, compact swing that does plenty of damage to anything in the zone and the approach is pretty advanced already. He doesn’t get pull-happy and he’ll abuse the opposite field gap when he needs to, while also showing off very good juice to the pull side. He’s also a menace on the basepaths, registering 36 stolen bases in 2023. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there’s a chance that he can handle third base in 2024.

#5 - New York Yankees: 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

The Yankees are the biggest winners in this run, jumping up twelve spots with minuscule odds into the top five.

Nick Kurtz has been a revelation for Wake Forest the past two seasons and he’s easily the frontrunner for the ACC Player of the Year award in 2024. A mountain of a human being, the offensive profile is scary good. There’s patience at the dish and he’ll rack up a ton of walks, but he’ll use the whole field to his advantage. Oh, and he’s got some of the best power in this class, grading out at plus presently and maybe even double-plus in the future. He’s rather athletic for his size and it shows at first base, which isn’t commonly known for robust defense. He’s one of the best defenders at the position in quite some time. The idea of Kurtz abusing the right field stands at Yankee Stadium is quite fun to dream about.

#6 - Colorado Rockies: OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina

Colorado gets the Oakland treatment in this lottery, going from being tied for the best odds at the first overall pick to the last pick in the lottery at sixth overall.

Colorado’s hitting development has been rather solid the past couple of years, with guys like Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck standing out in last year’s draft class. Much like Beck, Vance Honeycutt does bring some question marks with the hit tool, but the power potential is already obvious. There’s a ton of bat speed and he’s made approach improvements, slashing his strikeout rate considerably from 2022. Honeycutt’s defense is center is stellar and he’ll stick there long-term, plus he’s an incredible runner. If he can improve his contact consistency in 2024, Honeycutt’s upside may be the best in the class.

#7 - Chicago White Sox: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

Chicago does drop out of the lottery in this scenario, but they’ll move up a spot with Washington only able to pick as high as tenth in 2024.

Brecht has some of the biggest upside in the class with a robust two-pitch combination. He’s one of the hardest throwers in the class, consistently sitting in the mid-upper 90s, getting into triple-digits, with some lively action through the zone. The slider is absolutely electric with hard two-plane break in the upper-80s with an insane whiff rate and he’ll flash a firm change-up in the low-90s. His arm action creates plenty of deception, too. The biggest outlier here is that the command lags behind the stuff, but the expectation is that will improve as he’s now firmly focusing on baseball. If he can harness the stuff and improve a third offering, the upside is sky-high.

#8 - Pittsburgh Pirates: 1B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia

A year after taking Paul Skenes first overall, the Pirates find themselves a bit lower in this draft, but they’re still in prime position.

Charlie Condon was one of the biggest revelations in the country in 2023, going from a redshirt year with no action to the SEC Freshman of the Year. Condon’s bat is insanely impressive, as the hit tool flashes real potential and there’s significant power in the bat. He has quick hands and plenty of bat speed, routinely posting exit velocities in the triple digits and exceeding 110 MPH at times. He’s currently hitting everything thrown his way on the summer circuit, as well. He might be a bit limited defensively, as he’s played first base and both corner outfield spots, but he’s got the tools to be given a legitimate chance to stick in the outfield. If so, the profile improves even more.

#9 - New York Mets: OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Transfer Portal

It may not be the kind of year that Mets fans were looking for, but getting a top-ten pick should provide some comfort.

Braden Montgomery transformed himself as a hitter in 2023, upping the walk rate significantly and improving his contact rates. He’s a switch-hitting outfielder with impressive power potential from both sides of the plate. There’s some swing-and-miss here, but the improved approach gives some hope that it’ll come down some more in 2024. He’s got one of the best arms in the entire class, a true bazooka of a right arm with impressive carry and accuracy from right field. He’s also been up to 98 MPH on the bump, but likely will have to ditch pitching at some point. Formerly at Stanford, Montgomery recently entered the transfer portal.

#10 - Washington Nationals: 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida

Just a little reminder that the new CBA doesn’t allow a team to have lottery picks two years in a row, so Washington gets bumped down to tenth overall despite being seventh in the simulation.

Despite this, the Nationals have a chance to get their hands on a high-risk, high-reward player in Jac Caglianone, college baseball’s Shohei Ohtani. He’s pretty raw and needs a bit of polish to his profile, but the two-way potential is legitimate. He’s been up to 99 MPH from the left side on the bump with a bullet slider and a solid change-up, but the command has been the biggest issue here. With the bat, Caglianone has explosive hand speed and double-plus power, but can get a bit aggressive with his approach and his contact rate needs improvement. If he can iron out some of these kinks in his profile, he’ll go high in 2024.

#11 - Chicago Cubs: 1B/OF PJ Morlando, Summerville HS (South Carolina commit)

The Cubs have been pretty aggressive in recent years with their draft strategy, so let’s keep that trend going.

South Carolina prepster 1B/OF PJ Morlando is one of the strongest kids we’ve seen in recent memory. There’s a ton of bat speed in this profile and he’s already pretty physical, which gives him a ton of power potential. He’s already been hitting second-deck tanks in batting practice at big league stadiums this summer. It’s a pretty advanced approach at the dish, too. It might end up being a first base profile, but he’s gotten some time in the outfield and could get a chance to start there at the next level.

#12 - San Diego Padres: OF Derek Curiel, Orange Lutheran HS (LSU commit)

The Padres certainly don’t shy away from the prep ranks in drafts, as that’s been their M.O. since the 2017 draft. We’ll keep that trend going in 2024.

Derek Curiel is one of the more famous names in this class, as he’s long been a performer on the circuit. It’s a nice and easy swing from the left side with a projectable frame, as well as some added bat speed. He’ll punish the gaps, but he may grow into all fields power when all is said and done. The hit tool is already pretty advanced, as he really knows the zone and doesn’t expand, as well as using the whole field to his advantage. He’s got great instincts and defense in center field, too.

#13 - Los Angeles Angels: LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

A new year, but it’s the same idea with the Los Angeles Angels. Grab a guy who could be in the majors quickly.

Hagen Smith certainly fits that mold. A southpaw with pretty funky mechanics, command has been the biggest thing holding him back, but his stuff is absolutely electric. He’s been up to 97-98 MPH with the fastball, showcasing solid life through the zone, but it’s the slider that’s the selling point here. It’s a sweepy monster in the upper-80s that is super tough on lefties from the angle that he creates and flashes double-plus potential. He’ll tinker with a change-up, but it needs refinement. The potential here is fun to think about.

#14 - Minnesota Twins: 1B/3B Tommy White, LSU

Just a year after taking prep superstar Walker Jenkins with the fifth overall pick, the Twins may just stick with their type in 2024.

Tommy White fits their “slugger with an ability to hit” type. He lit up the ACC in 2022 with NC State and continued to do so in the SEC in 2023, being a catalyst for LSU’s championship run in Omaha. He has some of the best power in the class and it comes easy, as he can flick the ball to the opposite field and the pull side juice is rather robust. He limits strikeouts, but he’s in no rush to take walks, either. He’s gotten time at third base, but the range is rather limited, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see a move to first base at some point.

#15 - Seattle Mariners: OF/LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (LSU commit)

Seattle put together a solid class in 2023 with their abundance of picks on Day 1, and they’ll find themselves in the top fifteen in 2024 in this scenario.

Much like Griffin, Caminiti is a reclass from 2025, though it’s a different mold. Caminiti has legitimate two-way potential, as he backspins baseballs with ease from the left side with solid power potential, but the main selling point comes on the mound. Finding a prep southpaw that’s already into the mid-90s is rather rare, but that’s what Caminiti brings to the table. He’s also got a slurvy breaking ball with potential and a solid change-up, giving him very good upside on the bump.

MLB Draft Day 1 Standouts/Winners

The first day of the MLB Draft has come and gone and man, what a night it was.

We saw plenty of history, including the first-ever teammates to go 1-2 in the draft, as well as the fewest amount of prep arms in the first round in quite some time. It was a relatively tame night, as well, as little chaos occurred, which is a change from what previous years have given us. But which classes and picks stand out the most from Day 1? That’s what I’m here to break down.

We’ll dive into six hauls and six individual picks that stood out and garnered my attention throughout the night, as well as give a bit of insight into what we could say on Day 2.

Best Team Hauls

San Francisco Giants

Picks: 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge (16), SS Walker Martin (52), LHP Joe Whitman (69)

The Giants currently have the cream of the crop in terms of a haul this draft. Eldridge being selected as a two-way isn’t a shock, as that is likely the reason as to why he’s a first rounder to begin with. Unlike Crawford, I think Eldridge has a better chance to be a starter with the nature of his stuff, plus the bat is pretty underrated with plenty of power. He’ll be one interesting follow.

The Martin pick came as a bit of a shock admittedly, especially given the fact that he played with a back injury throughout the spring. However, I like the aggressiveness from the front office here. Martin’s bat is legit, as he’s got one of the better hit tools in the prep ranks, plus the power got better this spring. You can question where he fits defensively, he’s got the athleticism to start in the dirt with a move to a corner spot not out of the question. But the bat is the calling card here.

Lastly, Whitman is a phenomenal pick at 69. We thought he could find his way into the backend of the first and given the success the Giants pitching development team has seen the past few years, there’s plenty to like with Whitman’s profile. The fastball has potential, the slider is already a plus pitch, and the change-up is effective. The pick seems eerily similar to Carson Whisenhunt from a year ago.

Overall, it’s a pretty high risk, high reward class. I’m interested to see what the Giants do on Day 2, especially with under $10 million at their disposal in pool money. Maybe it’s a bit more of the college underslot demographic they go after, but I’d imagine Whitman may command a bit less and provide some savings.

Boston Red Sox

Picks: C Kyle Teel (14), SS Nazzan Zanetello (50)

If I were Boston, I’d of been incredibly giddy to have Kyle Teel fall into my lap like that. Teel was a consensus top-ten guy, even being the third-best collegiate bat on our board. It’s as legit of a bat as you can find in the country, winning the ACC Player of the Year and having a potentially plus hit tool with pretty robust power. He’s likely someone that will end up peppering the Green Monster in due time. While he isn’t your stereotypical catcher, he’s very athletic back there and deserves every chance to stick there. This could be an early candidate for the steal of the first round.

With Zanetello, you’re getting a freak athlete. He’s got legitimate five-tool potential in his profile. He’s hit everywhere he has gone and the mix of very quick hands/bat speed will give him a rather robust power profile once he’s physically mature. Let’s not forget the speed he has, which grades out as plus to potentially double-plus, and a very strong arm that has hit 98 MPH, and you’ve got a very solid prep player. He was drafted as a shortstop and he should be given every chance there, though I do believe he’s either a third baseman or a right fielder.

It might only be two picks, but I don’t think Boston could have done much better here.

Miami Marlins

Picks: RHP Noble Meyer (10), LHP Thomas White (35), OF Kemp Alderman (47)

Man, what the Marlins did with their first two picks was perfect.

We’ll start with Meyer, who was the lone prep arm to be selected in the first round. We’ll jump into this later on, but I absolutely love the fit here. He’s already got a robust pitch mix, but with the way the Marlins develop change-ups, it’s just such a fun idea to think about the potential here. With White, they double down on the prep demographic and they have the pool money to get him signed. White has long been a famous name and has excellent stuff, getting into the mid-90s with a lively heater and a robust secondary arsenal, though getting that delivery in sync and scattered command gave him some fits. The Marlins know their strengths here and I’m excited about it. There’s a ton of upside here.

Alderman is also a fun profile to dive into. He has some of the best power in the entire class, consistently having exit velocities get above the 110 MPH threshold. If Miami can get him to tone down the aggressive approach and improve the contact rates, there’s a ton to like with the bat. Defensively, he’s destined for a right field spot thanks to an absolute bazooka of a right arm.

Time will ultimately tell on how these guys develop, especially Meyer and White, but if I’m a Marlins fan, I couldn’t be any more excited about their picks.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Picks: INF Tommy Troy (12), INF LuJames “Gino” Groover III (48), LHP Caden Grice (64)

The Diamondbacks’ Day 1 class is insanely fun and screams upside, especially on the offensive front.

The selection of Troy was celebrated amongst the draft team here at the site. We think he’s one of the best bats in the class with a sound approach, robust power, as well as being able to handle velocity. He had zero whiffs against pitches above 95+ MPH in 2023, which while it is a smaller sample size, it’s quite impressive. Defensively, he might end up at second base, but I like the idea of starting him out on the left side of the infield. It’s a very fun profile.

Groover does provide a bit more questions regarding the defense, but there’s no questioning the offensive ability. Groover’s MO is hitting, utilizing the whole field with a short, compact swing and having excellent plate discipline. He managed to get more into his power in 2023 as well, which was very encouraging to see. He’s likely destined for either second base, first base, or even left field, but I’d imagine Arizona will let him man the hot corner for a bit.

Lastly, Grice being a P.O. is a fun pick. Arizona is quite progressive with their arms and while Grice does have 70-grade power, the hit tool was likely never going to materialize. He was very good down the stretch for Erik Bakich with a low-90s heater that has sink, as well as a solid breaking ball and change-up. He’s relatively fresh too, as he didn’t really pitch heavily until this season. I like the fit here.

Kansas city royals

Picks: C Blake Mitchell (8), RHP Blake Wolters (44), OF Carson Roccaforte (66)

Yes, you can scream at me all you want about the prep catching demographic and how risky it is, but at the end of the day, Mitchell felt like the one to buck that trend. It’s not often that you get someone of his caliber at the position and he’s viewed as reasonably safe offensively, as he has a robust hit/power combination. He won’t get a chance to pitch like he did in high school, but rather he’s going to stick behind the dish long-term. He’s athletic and agile back there, plus the cannon of an arm that he has garnered double-plus grades. There’s a ton to like with the profile he has and I’d be very interested to see the monetary figure he gets.

With Wolters, the Royals get a very solid arm. He came into his own this spring, turning into a legitimate power pitcher with a loud fastball that gets into the upper-90s with very solid life to it. The slider will need to be more consistent, but it flashes. At its best, it’ll be a power slider in the mid-80s with nasty bite and tilt, though it becomes a slurvy breaker with gradual break when he doesn’t execute. The change-up needs refinement, too. I do trust the Royals development team enough to work their magic here.

Lastly, Roccaforte is a fun pick in the second round. While the home run power wasn’t the same as what it was in 2022, Roccaforte’s batted ball profile is incredibly fun to dive into. It’s very easy power and while there’s some things to iron out with the swing, there’s a lot to like there. He’s an above-average runner that has a chance to stick at the eight with solid route running and great defense. He’s got high grades on models, too.

Detroit Tigers

Picks: OF Max Clark (3), INF Kevin McGonigle (37), INF Max Anderson (45)

Could this be a bit of a hot take? Maybe. It’s hard to pass up on a talented college bat in Wyatt Langford, but Max Clark is the kind of bat you feel comfortable passing on Langford for.

Clark’s offensive profile is a bit power limited when compared to the other names in the top five, he’s likely going to max out at average to above-average power when all is said and done. However, he’s a potentially plus hitter with a smooth left-handed swing that’s short to the ball and he can shoot the ball to all fields with ease, as well as having a pretty sound approach at the dish. What does give him the edge over someone like Walker Jenkins is the defensive upside here. He’s got a solid chance to stick in centerfield with very solid speed, route-running, and defense at the next level. Detroit did very well here.

McGonigle can be seen as a bit of a steal in the compensation round given the offensive upside and the first round grade we gave him. It’s pretty similar to what Clark’s bat is, a plus hitter with potentially above-average power when all is said and done. He has a lengthy track record of hitting everywhere he has gone and doesn’t strike out a ton against solid competition. If there’s anything to knock McGonigle on, it’s the fact that he’s likely limited to second base. He was drafted as a shortstop, but given the muscle he added and limited arm strength, a move seems likely down the line. But you can’t argue with an offensive-minded second baseman.

Lastly, Anderson had some helium in the last couple of weeks and felt destined to go higher than the ranking we gave him. Surely enough, here we are, as Anderson went 16 spots higher than our ranking. Anderson just flat-out hits, slashing .414/.461/.771 in the spring with Nebraska with very solid power output, particularly to the gaps. He does chase quite a bit and the walks aren’t where you’d want them to be, but he does a very good job of limiting the strikeouts. His defense is a question mark, though, given the lack of arm strength and range at second base. He’s likely a first baseman at the next level.

Honorable Mentions: Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays

favorite picks

Andrew Walters (no. 62/Cleveland)

I’ve seen a bit of scuttlebutt about Walters being a relief-only guy during his time at Miami, so I raise you this: he was one of the best closers in ACC history. Plus, given the electric nature of the fastball and the potential to move quickly as a bullpen ace in Cleveland’s system, I absolutely love the fit here. Walters has a unique fastball with a low release, flatter VAA, and excellent command. It was an incredibly dynamic pitch in college, and while you could say he’s a one-pitch pony, Walters has seen improvement in the breaking ball department, ditching the loopier curveball for a harder slider with solid bite. Cleveland’s pitching development is amazing, too. It’s hard not to love this pick.

Hurston Waldrep (No. 24/Braves)

Atlanta’s farm system is littered with a ton of arms, so why not add Waldrep to the fold? This feels like a steal given the nature of his stuff, particularly the off-speed, but I believe the Braves can be a development team that can fix his fastball. We already know how good the off-speed arsenal is, as the splitter is a legitimate 70-grade pitch and the curveball/slider are both above-average, but if Atlanta can fix his fastball command, this has the makings of another quick riser in that system. It’ll also help him live out his potential as a starter. If I’m Atlanta, I’m very happy that Waldrep fell this far.

Noble Meyer (No. 10/Marlins)

I know I’ve already touched on how much I like this pick and the upside, but it’s one of my favorite fits in the draft thus far. Miami knows how to develop pitching, there’s no question about that, and Meyer has one of the best pitch mixes in the class that’s led by his plus slider. But if there’s anything I’m excited about here, it’s the development of his change-up. We’ve covered it in Deep(er) Drives, but the one thing industry folks wanted to see was more change-up usage. Miami knows how to develop the pitch and given the fact that Meyer has already made some tweaks to the pitch over the past year, I like the potential here.

Colin Houck (NO. 32/Mets)

Houck sliding this far was not on my bingo card, especially given we had him mocked to the Diamondbacks at 12. Houck’s upside is tremendous and he’s incredibly athletic. It’s a very solid swing from the right side and with the projectable nature of his frame, the power potential is quite high. There’s also enough to suggest that he sticks at shortstop long term with his twitch, range, and arm strength. The Mets may have gotten a legitimate steal with their first pick here.

Chase Davis (no. 21/Cardinals)

Yeah, this was a match made in heaven. The Cardinals needed this kind of bat in their system and Davis fell right into their laps. He’s really evolved as a hitter in the past year, dropping the whiff and chase rates and shortening up the swing, all while keeping the robust power he’s always had. It’s likely that he gets a chance to start in center field, but in all likelihood, a move to a corner spot seems likely. I really, really like this fit.

Walker Jenkins (no. 5/Twins)

The Twins were big winners in the draft lottery back in December and they get someone who fits their M.O. perfectly. While the medical history pushed some teams away, the upside here is amazing. It’s a potential 60-hit/60-power bat with Jenkins, as he has robust bat speed and impressive bat-to-ball skills that you don’t find often in a prep bat. He’s likely a fit for right field instead of center moving forward, where his strong arm should play very well. He’s got the speed to handle center, but he likely outgrows the position. All in all, Minnesota likes their high-OBP and power guys and Jenkins fits that bill.

We Simulated The MLB Draft Over Two Dozen Times - Here’s Who Your Team Selected Most Often

With this weekend's MLB Draft quickly approaching every fanbase wants to know who their favorite team is going to select. I can’t in good conscience speak in absolutes regarding who each singular player might be. What I can do is build an MLB Draft Simulator and use the probabilities to find out what players land at specific spots most often. So, that’s what I did. 

I ran the simulator a total of 25 times. For picks 1-39, I’ll name the 3 players who were selected at that pick most often. This should illuminate exactly who fans should look for their team to select during Round 1. This doesn’t mean these will be the exact three guys they pick from. Chaos is the only certainty in the MLB Draft. Simply keep an eye on these players in these ranges.

Round 1:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

• Dylan Crews, LSU, OF

• Paul Skenes, LSU, P

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

Chalk. All signs point to these three players being the pool being picked in this spot. Barring a Wyatt Langford surprise, these are your guys.

2. Washington Nationals 

• Paul Skenes, LSU, P

• Wyatt Langford, Florida, OF

• Dylan Crews, LSU, OF

More chalk. Nothing groundbreaking here. Nats’ find themselves with the player that doesn’t get selected 1st.

3. Detroit Tigers

• Wyatt Langford, Florida, OF

• Paul Skenes, LSU, P

• Dylan Crews, LSU, OF

More of the same. Although they are at the mercy of the other two teams, the Tigers likely walk away with one of the top three players in the class.

4. Texas Rangers

• Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

• Wyatt Langford, Wyatt Langford, OF

Which prep - Clark vs. Jenkins? Does a premier college player fall?

5. Minnesota Twins

• Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, P

• Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF

• Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P

The first true wild card. Our sim likes the Twins taking a pitcher or a prep. 

6. Oakland Athletics

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

• Kyle Teel, Virginia, C 

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

Middle-of-the-diamond premier players. Athletes and high-upside arms. 

7. Cincinnati Reds

• Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS

• Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P 

• Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS

More middle-of-the-diamond Reds’ prospects? More up-and-coming arms to the stable? 

8. Kansas City Royals

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

• Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, P

• Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C

The rebuild continues. High upside and toolsy preps.

9. Colorado Rockies

• Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS

• Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

A healthy mix. Plenty of places to supplement within the organization. College bat, prep bat, prep pitcher. 

10. Miami Marlins

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

• Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF

• Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P

The prep stopgap. Unlikely either high ends prep gets to this spot but even more unlikely they bypass Miami. 

11. Los Angeles Angels

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

• Kyle Teel, Virginia, C 

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

Feels like a team that catches the premier talent that falls to them. Meyer, Teel, and Nimmala all figure to go earlier but Angels would love any of them.

12. Arizona Diamondbacks

• Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt, OF

• Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B

• Tommy Troy, Stanford, SS/3B

Impact college players to supplement a rising core of young stars. 

13. Chicago Cubs

• Tommy Troy, Stanford, SS/3B

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

• Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS

Premier athletes in the middle of the diamond. Don’t be surprised if a college arm pops up either. 

14.  Boston Red Sox

• Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS

• Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P

• Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P

A classic Red Sox move. The California high school shortstop. Only this time he went to Ole Miss for three years. Or more high-octane arms to a system that could use some. 

15. Chicago White Sox

• Chase Davis, Arizona, OF

• Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

Another wild card. Tons of ways they could go. 

16. San Francisco Giants

• Colin Houck, Parkview, SS

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

High upside prep players. While sticking with the theme of potential two-way players. 

17. Baltimore Orioles

• Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS

• George Lombrad Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS

• Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian, P

A multitude of routes the Orioles can go here. The simulator likes up-the-middle types plus prep arms.

18. Milwaukee Brewers

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

• Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B

• George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS

Impact infielders and athletes. 

19. Tampa Bay Rays

• Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

One of the teams who truly loves the chaos of the draft. Could see them go a ton of directions.

20. Toronto Blue Jays

• Brice Matthews, Nebraska, 3B/2B

• Thomas White, Phillips Academy, P

• Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF

Some new names that we haven’t seen yet. While potentially continuing a tradition of Florida amateurs. 

21. St. Louis Cardinals

• Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C

• Tommy Troy, Stanford, 3B/SS

• Colin Houck, Parkview, SS

The high makeup player. Bucks the trend of first round arms in this case. 

22. Seattle Mariners

• Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B

• Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

The beginning of the Mariners’ draft of chaos. 3 picks in the top 30. They can mold this in any way they want. 

23. Cleveland Guardians

• Chase Davis, Arizona, OF

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

• Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner, 2B

Premier athletes and moldable arms. It’s what the Guardians do. 

24. Atlanta Braves

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

• Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt, OF

• Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF

Prep arm or some guys who could fly through a system to aid one of the best cores in baseball.

25. San Diego Padres

• Colin Houck, Parkview, SS

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

• Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner, 2B

Preller doing Preller things. Prep, Prep, Prep. 

26. New York Yankees

• Matt Shaw, Maryland, 2B/3B

• Ross Cholowsky, Hamilton, SS

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

College hitters who have had massive success. And even a couple from the east coast. 

27. Philadelphia Phillies

• Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian, P

• Cam Johnson, IMG Academy, P

• Cade Kuehler, Campbell, P

They love their prep arms. They’ve been successful before, that doesn’t change here. 

28. Houston Astros

• Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS

High-impact college bats who aren’t far away. Or another Astros middle infielder adding power as we speak.

PPP & Competitive Balance & Comp Rounds

29. Seattle Mariners

• Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken, P

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF

30. Seattle Mariners

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

• Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B

• Ross Cholowsky, Hamilton, SS

31. Tampa Bay Rays

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS

32. New York Mets

• Thomas White, Phillips Academy, P

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS

33. Milwaukee Brewers

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF

34. Minnesota Twins

• Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS

• George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS

• Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor, OF

35. Miami Marlins

• Jackson Baumeister, FSU, P

• Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS

• LuJames Groover III, NC State, IF

36. Los Angeles Dodgers

• Eric Bitonti, Aquinas, SS

• Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor, OF

• Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF

37. Detroit Tigers

• Brice Matthews, Nebraska, 2B/3B

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Travis Honeyman, Boston College, OF

38. Cincinnati Reds

• Cade Kuehler, Campbell, P

• Kendall George, Atascocita, OF

• Tanner Witt, Texas, P

39. Oakland Athletics

• Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS

• Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech, OF

• LuJames Groover III, NC State, IF

This was simply a fun exercise to put our simulator to use and give it a little more time in the sun before Sunday rolls around and the real thing takes off. Fans want to know who they should be eyeing up for their team to grab and this piece aids in that process. And that isn’t an excuse to hit up Prospects Live on socials if the player your team selects isn’t found within the three players for that pick. As I mentioned, the only sure thing on Sunday is that chaos will ensue. 

If you want to try the simulator for yourself, you can click right here. 

If you want to learn more about any of the potential players, right here. 

Make sure to follow all of Prospects Live’s coverage over the next week as we cover all 20 rounds and beyond!

2023 MLB Draft Mock 4.0: The Final One

It’s been a minute, but we are proud to release our fourth and final mock draft in the hours leading up to Sunday night. This mock draft will feature 39 picks—the first round through competitive balance round A—and will take blurbs from our board to highlight the player and compliment them with the rationale for why they are being taken at their respective pick. We really hope you enjoy it! Special thanks to MLB Draft Director Tyler Jennings and Senior Draft Team members Will Hoefer and Brian Recca, as well as all the members of our Prospects Live Draft Team.

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#1 Pittsburgh Pirates select RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State University

The Player: What Skenes has done in 2023 has been something that college baseball has not seen since the Stephen Strasburg era. Through ten starts, he has struck out batters at a 51.3% clip. Pure domination. What once was a fastball sitting 92-95 MPH has become an upper-90s sinker that has broken the triple-digit barrier on numerous occasions with big running life, paired with a high-80s sweepy slider and a solid change-up in the same velocity band that plays well off the heater. He's showcased excellent command so far and will be the first arm off the board unless something happens.

The Rationale: Crews or Skenes? That's been the question for much of the spring. Even though we have Crews ranked #1 on our board, the chatter we're hearing suggests Skenes is a better fit for Pittsburgh at 1-1. Crews is rumored to have a much larger bonus demand than Skenes, which could cause Pittsburgh to pivot away from Crews if they feel the two LSU stars are somewhat comparable from a talent perspective. Saving bonus money early would allow Pittsburgh to spread those pool dollars elsewhere in the draft. Pittsburgh has applied this strategy in recent years with the 2020 draft (taking Henry Davis 1-1) providing us a decent blueprint for what it could be like. Max Clark could also work here and you can't rule out a dark horse candidate or two popping up over the weekend. But we'll stick with Skenes here. One of the most dominant arms in college baseball history, Skenes' polish and explosive arsenal gives him a chance to provide value in the Pirates rotation as early as next spring. Pittsburgh appears to be turning a corner as an organization and a potential ace with six years of control could jumpstart that turnaround.

#2 Washington Nationals select OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State University

The Player: Crews was a highly-regarded prospect as a Florida prep in 2020, but decided to remove his name from draft consideration to attend LSU. That move paid off in a big way, and he was an All-American as a freshman in 2021 and just as good as a sophomore in 2022. His bat doesn’t have many flaws; he produces elite exit velocities and walk rates with limited strikeouts. There’s a ton of controlled violence in his swing that allows him to get the most out of his 6’1” frame. Likely a corner outfielder at the next level, Crews possesses the arm and range to easily handle left or right field. He is the consensus favorite to go first overall and could move quickly through a system given his track record of success against competitive competition.

The Rationale: While Crews' bonus demands remain a factor here, the likelihood of Crews dropping past #2 seems unlikely, especially with Skenes off the board. The selections of Brady House and Elijah Green in the last two years indicate they are comfortable forking out large bonuses to get their guy. There's been a general feeling that Washington believes Skenes and Crews are in a tier of their own and it would take something extreme happening for them to end up with someone other than those two. You can never rule out chaos, but the Nationals’ connections to Crews and Skenes appear to be real, and passing up on a college bat with Crews' track record and skillset here seems unlikely. With the addition of Crews, a relatively quick rebuild might not be out of the question for the Nationals less than a year after trading franchise cornerstone Juan Soto.

#3 Detroit Tigers select OF Wyatt Langford, University of Florida

The Player: Langford may have missed time with an injury halfway through the year, but what he did in 2023 was nothing short of spectacular. There's plenty of bat speed and power in this profile and there's plenty of confidence that Langford will hit for average moving forward, which is paired with mature plate discipline. Walking more than you strike out in the SEC is a tough task. He's already pretty physical, but don't let the size fool you. Some scouts believe he could man center field at the next level with his speed and defense, though his arm has limited him to left field for now.

The Rationale: The level of certainty at this spot drops a tick, but Langford is firmly entrenched as a top 5 pick and new president of baseball ops. Scott Harris has a proclivity for going the college route. That could separate Langford from the prep outfielders, and it would be hard to blame Detroit for valuing Langford a bit higher after his performance the past two years in the SEC. With Skenes and Crews off the board, Langford to Detroit makes a lot of sense from a skill, organizational tendency, and value perspective. The Tigers desperately need to reinvigorate a shallow system and Langford provides them with a supremely talented bat to build around.

#4 Texas Rangers select OF Maxwell Clark, Franklin HS (IN), committed to Vanderbilt

The Player: Clark is a legitimate five-tool talent. He is an advanced hitter who doesn’t try to do too much at the plate, allowing him to spray the ball all over the field with ease. He has steadily added more game power over the years, leading many scouts to believe he will have plus juice at the big league level. He takes great routes in center field and has registered 60-yard dash times in the low 6.0s, leaving little concern as to whether he will stick at the position long-term. It’s a Pete Crow-Armstrong-type profile with potentially more power and better discipline. Not to mention, he was up to 99 MPH on the mound earlier this spring if something were to go wrong as a position player. He is a high-floor, high-ceiling prospect with great makeup and the potential to go as early as first overall.

The Rationale: The Rangers forfeited their 2nd and 3rd round draft picks for the 2nd consecutive year following the free agent signings of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. This puts Texas in a tricky position because over 75% of their bonus pool is tied to the slot amount for the 4th overall pick. Last year, the Rangers made a shocking yet calculated move taking Kumar Rocker #3 and then using the savings to land Brock Porter in the 4th round. That's certainly a possibility this year, but both Clark and Jenkins are harder to pass up than the players who were available for Texas a year ago. Rumors of Texas going with a prep bat at this spot have been circulating for quite some time. Prep hitters with Clark's polish at the plate are a rarity and the Chris Young-led Rangers have valued those types of hitters in the draft. Jenkins fits that archetype as well, but Clark is a better bet to stick up the middle which gives him the edge here.

#5 Minnesota Twins select OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS (NC), committed to North Carolina

The Player: Jenkins has long been a famous name within scouting circles with legitimate five-tool potential. The UNC commit shows patience at the plate and uses the whole field to hit, as well as having excellent bat speed and hip/shoulder separation, allowing him to tap into his burgeoning power. He's got the speed to play in center field, though as he continues to fill out his frame, it's likely that he moves to right field, where his solid arm and defense will play well. It's hard to envision him falling out of the top five at this point.

The Rationale: With the 4th largest bonus pool and 3 of the top 49 picks, the Twins could decide to get creative with this pick. However, the Twins have a history of selecting hitters with big power and a track record of hitting in games early. The Twins' desire to explore other opportunities with Walker Jenkins sitting in their laps at #5 may abate given that history. There are some health concerns related to Jenkins's hips, but the Twins took Brook Lee last year who also had health-related questions. Jenkins has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order force and receives universal praise for his makeup and work ethic. Jacob Gonzalez and Kyle Teel are possible selections should the Twins go the college route.

#6 Oakland Athletics select SS Jacob Gonzalez, University of Mississippi

The Player: Gonzalez has long been a big name in this draft cycle after lighting the SEC on fire during his freshman year. It's impressive bat-to-ball skills from the left side of the plate and incredible plate discipline, walking more than striking out throughout his entire collegiate career. The swing can get a bit disconnected/handsy at times, but the track record has spoken for itself so far. It's solid average power long-term, too. He'll likely grow out of the shortstop position moving forward, potentially moving to third base, though there's enough here to suggest he could stay long-term.

The Rationale: The A's are typically a hard team to read, but the last pitcher they drafted in the 1st round was AJ Puk back in 2016. At pick 6 the landscape in this mock is filled with college hitters who make sense. You can make a good case for Bradfield, Taylor, Teel, and a few others but we think Oakland is eager to get their hands on a legitimate shortstop. Gonzalez's quirky swing may be a hard 'no' for certain teams, but the fact is he's always performed in the SEC as a lefty-hitting shortstop. Because of how difficult it is to predict what the A's may do, it shouldn't be too much of a shock if they finally went with an arm like Rhett Lowder or a high upside prep like Arjun Nimmala

#7 Cincinnati Reds select RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest University

The Player: The pride of Albemarle, NC, Lowder is one of the best pitchability arms in recent memory and has performed admirably in the ACC the past two years. It's a true three-pitch mix led by a fastball in the low-90s with running life, touching 97 MPH at times. The change-up is his best pitch, a potentially plus pitch with tons of fading action that he sells well in the mid-80s. The slider has shown improvement with two-plane break in the low-80s, as well. He's got great command of his entire arsenal and there's enough there to suggest that he can add more consistent velocity post-draft.

The Rationale: The Lowder to the Reds buzz is gaining some momentum and it doesn't look like he'll be getting past pick #10. The Reds are overflowing with offensive firepower from a young and robust group of hitters. Teams don't draft for need in baseball as they do in football and basketball, but it's also not a completely irrelevant factor. Lowder fits here on talent level alone, so if the Reds feel Lowder and player X are of equal value, the pitching component might tip the scales in Lowder's favor. A starting pitcher who could potentially help the big league roster in a short amount of time is exactly what the Reds need. They've also done a good job developing a diverse contingent of arms in recent years which makes them capable of getting even more out of Lowder than expected. They may be tempted to float one of Clark and Jenkins down to this spot given their history of overslot picks. Kyle Teel is a good fit here, too.

#8 Kansas City Royals select C Kyle Teel, University of Virginia

The Player: Teel has been an impact hitter since he stepped foot on campus at Virginia, slashing .335/.416/.526 during his true freshman season. He has only built on that success this year and will likely be a first-team All-American at season’s end. His skillset is just about everything you want in a catcher. He has high contact rates and rarely strikes out, so he projects him as a plus hitter at the highest level. He’s very athletic behind the plate as well and should have no issue sticking at the position long-term. He has mixed evaluations defensively, but he should be serviceable at the minimum with some giving him average grades. The hit tool as a college catcher is rare in itself, which is the main reason why he will likely go in the top 20 picks of the draft.

The Rationale: The Royals have been pretty diverse in their draft selections, but have had notable trouble developing the high-priced college pitching that they have taken in the late 2010s. It’s hard to see Teel getting past the Royals here, and there’s been plenty of brass to see Teel down the stretch. He follows Nick Loftin and Gavin Cross as the third first-round college bat taken by KC in the last four years.

#9 Colorado Rockies select 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian University

The Player: Taylor has made a name for himself with his hit tool throughout his college career. In his draft year, the contact rates have dropped but he has improved his game in every other way. His quick hands have improved his defense at the hot corner and he is lifting the ball more and hitting for power. It’s a smooth swing from the left side and the frame and athleticism leave room to project more power while the bat-to-ball ability is going nowhere in the long run.

The Rationale: The Rockies have been attached to college pitching, and it wouldn't be a total surprise if they took Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander here. But in lieu of their usual sinker baller type, we think the Rockies take Taylor, a well-rounded offensive player that has enough bat to carry the profile at 3B.

#10 Miami Marlins select 2B Tommy Troy, Stanford University

The Player: Tommy Troy has only improved with every campaign at Stanford, turning in his best campaign in 2023. The Pac-12 batting title winner this spring, Troy has a beautiful right-handed swing at the dish with very good power potential at the next level, grading out as plus. He covers the zone very well and his plate discipline improved drastically. He's a very quick runner on the basepaths and in the dirt, though the arm likely limits him to a second base profile at the professional level. Either which way you chop it up, there's no complaints about a bat-first second baseman with the offensive abilities Troy is capable of having.

The Rationale: The Marlins have targeted bats, particularly from college, in their recent first-round drafting history. Troy is probably the quickest mover of the impact bats at this point, but we wouldn't be surprised to see Chase Davis, Matt Shaw, or Nolan Schanuel get snagged here.

#11 Los Angeles Angels select OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt University

The Player: Enrique Bradfield's game is reminiscent of Billy Hamilton, but with a bit more thump to the toolset. Bradfield is more built for spraying liners to all fields and laying down bunts to terrorize infielders with his speed, but there's some power in the profile that could get better with added muscle. Much like Jacob Gonzalez, he walked more than he struck out in his collegiate career, a testament to his elite eye. A true 80 grade runner, Bradfield knows when to utilize that speed and is an absolute terror on the basepaths. This speed also allows him to cover an insane amount of ground in center field with incredible defensive abilities. It wouldn't be a shock to see Bradfield fly through the minors.

The Rationale: The Angels have targeted players who can reach the big leagues as quickly as possible in the last few years. With two elite tools in his speed and defense coupled with three years of SEC experience, Bradfield Jr. can move quickly and possibly take over the reins in CF for the Halos. Dollander and Waldrep could be options should the Angels target a pitcher. Several of the college bats work at this spot including Troy should he last this long.

#12 Arizona Diamondbacks select SS Colin Houck, Parkview HS (GA), committed to Mississippi State

The Player: Parkview has long been a juggernaut in the Georgia prep ranks and Houck looks to be the next name out of the school. A super athletic infielder, Houck has a quiet load in his swing and explodes through the zone with solid bat speed and super quick hands. He's begun to grow into his power potential, which likely grades out as above-average to plus that play gap-to-gap for now. If anything, Houck profiles as a shortstop long term with excellent range, hands, and a solid arm. There's a ton to dream on here and there's enough to suggest that Houck doesn't make it out of the top 25.

The Rationale: There's been heat to Houck in the 10-16 range throughout May and into the workout phases of the evaluation cycle, with Arizona being one of the teams particularly interested in the Parkview SS. We see them dipping back into the GA prep hitter demographic, a year after selecting Druw Jones 2nd overall.

#13 Chicago Cubs select RHP Chase Dollander, University of Tennessee

The Player: Dollander came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the class, with some going as far as saying he’s the best since Stephen Strasburg. It’s a legit four-plus-pitch mix with all of his offerings grading out as either plus or double plus. The fastball lives in the mid-90s and tops out at 99 MPH. The slider is arguably a 70-grade pitch, inducing tons of sweeping action and missed bats. His curveball and changeup are plus pitches as well. While this evaluation has not changed much, he has mildly regressed compared to his 2022 season. He is slightly more upright in his delivery and throwing his breaking balls and changeup less than he did in 2022, leading to small differences in pitch movements and frequencies causing him to get hit more than he did during his sophomore season. Nonetheless, these are small adjustments that can be fixed by a professional player development staff and the ceiling is still that of an ace for Dollander.

The Rationale: The Cubs have been targeting college pitching early in recent drafts, and Dollander is a strong fit for an organization that has been exemplary in pitching development. We think Chicago believes they can shore up Dollander's mechanics and get the guy that had 1-1 hype heading into 2023.

#14 Boston Red Sox select SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS (FL), committed to Florida State

The Player: Nimmala is a certified freak of nature. Not only is he extremely young for the class (he won't turn 18 until December), he's already proven to be the best prep shortstop in this class with a well-rounded profile. It's premium bat speed with an excellent bat path from the right-side, hitting for both average and power, though breaking balls can be an issue. It's all fields juice, too, and projects as plus/double-plus moving forward. With the uber-projectable nature of his frame, he may wind up getting into all of it. He's expected to stick at the six, as well, given his soft hands, great range, and present arm strength on throws across the diamond. Players like this don't grow on trees.

The Rationale: It's a common gag to insist that the Red Sox are targeting SoCal shortstops given their recent draft history, but it underscores their interest in grabbing prep shortstops in general. Nimmala is one of the tooliest players available in this class, and Boston has shown an aptitude for developing barrel feel in their system.

#15 Chicago White Sox select RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit HS (OR), committed to Oregon

The Player: Meyer's summer was one of the louder ones on the circuit, vaulting his way into first round status and he may be the first prep arm off the board. His fastball has touched triple digits in bullpens, but he usually sits in the 92-96 MPH range in starts with big armside run. The star of the show is his slider, a pure sweeper in the low-mid 80s with hellacious spin numbers. He's introduced a curveball into the mix now, another spin monster with added depth to give him another weapon. The change-up needs more use, though it's now a mid-80s offering with a ton of fading life. He's very projectable and the upside here is immense.

The Rationale: Prep pitching, due to its inherent riskiness, tends to go lighter than we expect on draft day. The White Sox have a hit on their hands with their first-round prep pitcher from last year, Noah Schultz, and tend to spend around slot. Meyer, the top prep pitcher on our board, makes sense on a slot or slightly overslot deal here.

#16 San Francisco Giants select SS Matt Shaw, University of Maryland

The Player: Maryland has not had a bat go in the first round since John McCurdy went 26th overall in 2002, but Shaw looks to end that in 2023. He checks a lot of boxes at the plate, with a smooth right-handed swing with bat-to-ball skills and very good power, all while improving his chase rate. His average exit velocity grades out very high and he's exceeded triple digits multiple times with impressive plate discipline. He's athletic and twitchy in the dirt, though his frame suggests that he's more of a second baseman than a shortstop long term.

The Rationale: The Giants pick at 16, and have a few options in the college bat demographic. We see them taking the guy with the best track record and offensive floor in Matt Shaw, who possesses great barrel feel and has the power and contact skills to carry the offensive profile at 2B. Given the recent 2022 first-round selection of college two-way Reggie Crawford, Virginia prep 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge is also a possibility here.

#17 Baltimore Orioles select RHP Hurston Waldrep, University of Florida

The Player: While Waldrep's transition to the SEC hasn't quite been what he had hoped for, there's no denying how strong his arsenal is. The fastball consistently sits in the mid-90s, getting up to 98 MPH this year, with natural cut and ride. The off-speed stuff is some of the best in the country, led by two sharp breaking balls in a high-80s slider and a low-80s downer curveball. His best pitch is his splitter in the high-80s, which drops off a cliff when he's on. Command is fringy at best and there's plenty of effort in the delivery, leaving relief risk, but there's big upside if a team manages to unlock it.

The Rationale: In recent history, Baltimore has targeted college bats with their first-round picks, so it wouldn't shock us to see FAU 1B Nolan Schanuel or Arizona OF Chase Davis taken here at 17. But the word is that Orioles brass is really in on Hurston Waldrep and his immense arm talent, so we think they get their guy here.

#18 Milwaukee Brewers select 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic University

The Player: Simply put, Schanuel can flat-out hit. He’s been one of the best hitters in all of college baseball this year, currently sporting an OPS of nearly 1.600 and a K% under 7%. He has a great mix of hit ability and power, making him one of the most heralded bats in the draft. He’s an average runner and defender as well, making him more than well suited for the first base position long-term. The bat is what you are buying here, though, and it won’t be long before a team scoops him up in July.

The Rationale: Schanuel is a popular underslot candidate for several teams in the middle of the first round. There are model-friendly elements here including elite batted ball and plate discipline metrics that should be appealing to a bunch of teams in this range. The Brewers are a model-heavy team and their selection of Eric Brown last year shows that they aren't afraid to take a hitter with an unorthodox swing. Jacob Wilson is another quality option for the Brewers in this scenario.

#19 Tampa Bay Rays select OF Chase Davis, University of Arizona

The Player: Davis probably would have been picked in the top two rounds of the 2020 draft out of high school if it weren’t for his strong commitment to Arizona. He’s been known for his tremendous raw power since his prep days, generating elite bat speed with his whippy swing that reminds anyone who watches him of former Rockies’ star Carlos Gonzalez. His plus arm and average defense fit nicely in right field, where he will likely stick long-term. After some strikeout issues in his first two college seasons, he has cut them down significantly in his junior campaign and is currently making a legitimate case to go on Day 1 of the draft.

The Rationale: Tampa has some pool money to play with, so this pick is more about getting the guy that they think won't make it to 31. They do not shy away from bats that don't play up the middle if they offer big offensive upside, and Chase Davis fits that to a T here.

#20 Toronto Blue Jays select SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon University

The Player: Wilson has been a difference maker at Grand Canyon since he stepped foot on campus as a freshman. He truly broke out as a sophomore, where he was one of the best pure hitters in the nation while only striking out an unfathomable seven times in 275 plate appearances. He carried that success into an impressive bout in the Cape Cod league and run with Team USA over the summer as well. Defensively, he has good instincts and range at shortstop with most evaluators believing he will be able to stick there long-term. His exit velocities aren't spectacular, but he has shown enough in-game power potential that should keep that concern to a minimum. He has the upside of an everyday major league leadoff hitter if all goes right.

The Rationale: At #20, the Blue Jays stop the fall for Jacob Wilson. Thomas White could also be a fit here, but Toronto has shown a preference for hit-first college shortstops in the first round recently. Wilson also has MLB bloodlines from 10+ MLB veteran SS father Jack, and the Jays are a team built around young 2nd generation stars like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

#21 St. Louis Cardinals select C Blake Mitchell, Sinton HS (TX), committed to LSU

The Player: High school catchers can be a tough demographic, but Mitchell has all the tools to buck the trend this year. All he's done in 2023 is rake, hitting .474/.701/.842 with an insane 51:8 BB:K ratio. It's great bat-to-ball skills from the left side with present power potential to all fields and solid bat speed. There are some things to iron out with the swing, but you're likely looking at a 55 hit/55 power bat moving forward. He'll likely stick behind the dish with solid defensive abilities and a robust arm, which has been clocked up to 97 MPH on the bump when he pitches.

The Rationale: The Cardinals normally dip into the college pitching demo in this range of the draft, but the options are fairly limited this year. Instead, we have them taking Mitchell who possesses the arm strength and raw power that matches some of their more recent seven-figure prep signings.

#22 Seattle Mariners select 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS (VA), committed to Alabama

The Player: Eldridge has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, period. The 6’7” two-way player is good enough to play professionally on both sides and it is still not clear which way he will focus on long-term. He generally sits in the low-90s with his fastball, ramping it up to the mid-to-upper 90s at his best. He pairs that with a tight, above average slider and average changeup that has the potential to be plus with some refining. He has consistently hit well enough to go in the first couple of rounds, where he possesses plus raw power that could get better as he fills out. It’s a Spencer Jones-type profile at the same stage with potential to be two-way at the highest level if all goes well.

The Rationale: Seattle has a lot of pool money to play with and has demonstrated a desire for prep bats in this class. Eldridge certainly has the talent to be drafted and developed as a two-way, but the bat is what will get him paid by the Mariners here.

#23 Cleveland Guardians select SS Colt Emerson, John Glenn HS (OH), committed to Auburn

The Player: There's a lot to love with Emerson's profile. He has a sweet swing from the left side with bat speed and solid contact, though he's added quite a bit of muscle to his frame and has leaned out considerably. This bodes well for his power potential, which was already sneaky to begin with. It's a larger body for a shortstop, similar to what Colson Montgomery was in 2021, so a move to third base could be in the cards defensively. He's got solid range with a good arm in the dirt. In all likelihood, it's tough to envision seeing Emerson in an Auburn uniform.

The Rationale: Cleveland has a history of cutting deals in the first round, and while we think Colt Emerson isn't going to come cheap, we think Cleveland gets this very talented hitter on a bit of a hometown discount.

#24 Atlanta Braves select LHP Joe Whitman, Kent State University

The Player: Joe Whitman is one of the breakout pitchers this year in college baseball. Not bad for a guy who pitched a combined 5.2 innings over his first two years at Purdue before he transferred to Kent State. Now the 6’5” lefty is hitting 97 with a legit plus slider with good spin data. His changeup is behind his fastball and slider but has the look of a passable third pitch. There is some violence in his delivery though based on early reports and what I saw late it has improved. The reliever risk is there but he seems like a potential high-end reliever if he does not work as a starter. For me, he is the top left-handed college pitcher in this class. The growth potential stands out as Whitman. He basically pitched one year of college baseball.

The Rationale: Atlanta has two types in recent first-round history; vertical pitching, Wake Forest, both. Whitman fits the first category and comes to Atlanta on an underslot deal to give them their desired Day 2 flexibility.

#25 San Diego Padres select RHP Blake Wolters, Mahomet-Seymour HS (IL), committed to Arizona

The Player: Wolters has rocketed up draft boards this spring with a loud performance at Super 60 and has proceeded to improve further during the season. A large, imposing figure on the bump, the fastball has been up to 99 MPH and he's routinely held mid-90s deep into starts with carry and life. The slider has some promise in the low-80s with high spin, though he does lack feel at times. There's a change-up, too, though it's sparsely utilized. An Arizona commit, Wolters likely gets some attention in the the back-end of the first round, though second round is the most likely scenario.

The Rationale: The Padres love first rounds preps, but have very little money to play with. We think they solve this conundrum by nabbing Wolters earlier than expected, who has the stuff and size of past San Diego prep pitching selections.

#26 New York Yankees select SS Sammy Stafura, Walter Panas HS (NY), committed to Clemson

The Player: A breakout performance at Area Codes, coupled with long hours in the gym over the winter, put Stafura at the very top of priority lists for area scouts. His spring debut was highly anticipated by area scouts, and Stafura didn’t disappoint. Stafura looked toned with increased strength, and he was able to do so without sacrificing twitch or speed. With above average bat speed and a compact stroke, Stafura covers the entire zone and is hard to beat with velocity. His strong lower half stays grounded throughout the swing, which enables him to drive the ball with power to all fields. Stafura can occasionally expand the zone against quality secondaries leading to some swing-and-miss, though there was growth in that area this spring. The defensive acumen at SS has always been Stafura’s calling card. He’s a rangy defender who glides on the dirt and makes playing the position look easy. Stafura has an innate ability to be in the right place at the right time, thanks to an excellent internal clock. The glove, hands, and footwork are refined and work smoothly. Stafura’s arm slot can get slingy at times, especially on deeper throws, which causes his plus raw arm strength to play down. Nevertheless, Stafura projects to stick at shortstop long term. Stafura also receives plus marks for his work ethic and intangible qualities, which are reminiscent of a certain AL east shortstop with northeast prep ties. With plus speed, a rapidly developing offensive game, and advanced defensive ability at SS, Stafura’s draft stock has skyrocketed. He’s a lock to be taken on Day 1 of the draft, with the possibility of a late 1st round selection

The Rationale: Stafura has impressed at workouts all across the country in the month of June, but word is that the Yankees are particularly smitten. The Hudson Valley product stays close to home at pick 26.

#27 Philadelphia Phillies select 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest University

The Player: Wilken is a physically imposing hitter with arguably the most raw power in the class– he produces massive exit velocities and leads the nation in home runs over the last three seasons. He also has a very patient approach, having amassed more than 100 walks in that time span. He may be too passive, however, as his fringe-average contact skills don’t afford him the luxury of consistently falling behind early. Plus, he regularly does damage when swinging at the first pitch, and would be wise to do so more often. He isn’t the most mobile defender at third, but he does have soft hands and a plus arm, which should allow him to remain at the hot corner for the time being.

The Rationale: Philadelphia has had a lot of Florida prep pitching flavor in past years, so it was tempting to go with RHP Charlee Soto here. But we think former FL prep bat Wilken is the best player available at 27 and could move quickly through the Phillies system if his prodigious raw power gets into pro games off the bat.

#28 Houston Astros select SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA), committed to Auburn

The Player: McGonigle possesses some of the best pure hit ability in the class. He’s a proven hitter, consistently playing well against high-level competition in nationally ranked tournaments. Though not incredibly tall, he’s still twitchy and is able to turn on the ball with ease. It’s a hit-over-power profile with the potential for average power at the highest level. He’s a good athlete with good instincts in the field, making second base his likely long-term home defensively. The bat is what you are buying here, though, and he is as safe of a bet to hit going forward as any player in the draft.

The Rationale: On hitting talent alone it's hard to see McGonigle making it to the comp round, even if his long-term home is 2B. He shares a lot of offensive similarities to the similarly diminutive Drew Gilbert, the Astros' 1st rounder from 2022.

#29 Seattle Mariners select 3B Aidan Miller, JW Mitchell HS (FL). committed to Arkansas

#30 Seattle Mariners select RHP Brandon Sproat, University of Florida

The Player: Physicality? Check. Stupidly good power? Check. Track record? Final check. Miller is one of the most explosive profiles in this year's prep class with robust power potential from the right side. It's impressive bat speed and a good bat path with an average or better hit tool with plus raw juice, maybe more. The body screams third baseman and that's where most are comfortable with him for now, though a corner outfield spot or even first base aren't out of the cards. If there's anything that's hampered Miller in 2023, it was an early season hamate injury, though he's returned to play. In all likelihood, he'll go higher than his brother Jackson, who was a second round pick in 2020

The Player: A third round pick by the Mets in 2022, Sproat returned to Florida to be their Friday night arm in 2023 and has seen an uptick in his stuff. The fastball has topped triple digits a couple of times this year, routinely sitting in the mid-90's with heavy running life and misses a few bats. His best secondary is his change-up, which features hard diving action in the high-80's that hitters struggle to hit. There's a gyro slider in a similar velocity band as the change-up and a low-80's curveball that he'll use to steal strikes, as well. In all likelihood, the effort in the delivery and inconsistent command relegate him to a relief role moving forward, but it could be a fun relief option.

The Rationale(s): It's hard to see Miller getting past Seattle at 30, who have the money to get him and want high-level prep hitting in this class. Sproat fits in as an underslot companion pick, a college pitcher from the Southeastern US (the last three Mariners pitching selections fit this bill) that has elevated his stock during the Gators’ trip to Omaha.

#31 Tampa Bay Rays select SS Tai Peete, Trinity Christian HS (GA), committed to Georgia Tech

The Player: Peete is an incredible physical specimen with first round athletic ability, and has all the tools of a future MLB shortstop if the forearm that shut down his 2022 summer is healthy. However, there are lots of questions about the quality of the hit tool, and he fared poorly at the plate against high level competition. With that said, the shortstop from Sharpsburg has impressed teams during workouts, and could be off the board as early as the comp round.

The Rationale: There's been heat to Peete with the Rays for quite some time now, and he checks the physical and athlete boxes that few other available prep shortstops can check. We don't see him getting past Neander and Co., though toolsy prep outfielder Dillon Head is another player who could fit at this pick.

#32 New York Mets select SS George Lombard, Gulliver Prep (FL), committed to Vanderbilt

The Player: Lombard has been one of the biggest risers in this prep class, establishing himself as one of the best infield prospects in this cycle. It's a sweet swing from the right side with burgeoning power and an already impressive hit tool. There's present bat speed with loft to his swing and he'll utilize the whole field to hit. Not to mention, he's an above-average runner. While he has the frame that suggests he'd move to third base, his arm leaves a bit to be desired, so a move to second base seems more in the cards at this moment in time. With the way he's climbed up boards, it's hard to see this profile making it to Nashville.

The Rationale: The Mets are in an interesting position--they don't have their first-round pick but still have a decent amount of pool money thanks to a handful of 3rd and 4th round compensatory picks. Their proclivity for 1st round prep bats still makes sense at #32, and the highly projectable and sweet-swinging Lombard is the best of that bunch.

#33 Milwaukee Brewers select SS Brice Matthews, University of Nebraska

The Player: Matthews is the type of player that data-driven evaluators love. He has some of the best batted ball data in college baseball and has hit the cover off the ball this season. The former quarterback is a twitchy athlete with elite athleticism who has no problem handling high-level pitching. There is some significant swing and miss in his game, but that has improved significantly since last season and is truly the only factor preventing him from being a first round pick.

The Rationale: Milwaukee has shown a willingness to take college bats, regardless of size or competition level, if they hit the ball hard and hit the ball often. Nebraska SS Brice Matthews fits that bill, and the model-friendly Cornhusker slots in at 33.

#34 Minnesota Twins select LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (MA), committed to Vanderbilt

The Player: White is one of top prep arms in the nation as well as the top left-handed pitcher in the entire draft. A cold weather arm, his lack of presence on the travel circuits and strength of schedule has caused evaluators to use more projection than usual. He leads with a mid 90’s fastball that touches 96-97 at times and follows with a curveball and a change-up. The curve is his go-to secondary with two plane movement but the changeup flashes better potential.

The Rationale: One thing we noticed as this mock unfolded was the fall of Thomas White after Noble Meyer and two-way player Bryce Eldridge were taken at 16 and 19 respectively. We think that the Twins have the capital to get White on an overslot here and add a 2nd headline player for their 2023 draft class.

#35 Miami Marlins select RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian Academy (FL), committed to UCF

The Player: Soto's meteoric rise to the first round is impressive. A former shortstop that grew off the position, Soto has gained plenty of velocity on the bump, now sitting in the mid-90's and has gotten up to 98 MPH with the heater, though reports have suggested that the shape needs improvement. The slider has improved from what it was in 2022, adding more depth and some sweep in the mid-80's, though it's his change-up that is his bread and butter. He can mix between a splitter and circle-change grip in the high-80's with devastating tumble to both lefties and righties alike. He's extremely young for the class and has the potential for average or better command.

The Rationale: Similar to White, Charlee Soto had a fall into the comp round in this mock. While there is additional pitch design development needed for Soto in pro ball, we think the local Miami Marlins are equipped to unlock improved fastball shape and help him reach his #2-3 starter ceiling.

#36 Los Angeles Dodgers select OF Jonny Farmelo, Westfield HS (VA), committed to Virginia

The Player: The power and speed combination that Farmelo possesses gives him plenty of promise at the next level. It's an explosive profile in the outfield, with big power potential and loud exit velocities throughout his prep career. There's a track record of hitting, too. What separates Farmelo from his peers is his elite speed, terrorizing the basepaths and giving him ample opportunities to succeed in center field long term. There's plenty of athleticism in his profile, as well. In all likelihood, this is a profile that will get drafted in the second round.

The Rationale: At 36, we see the Dodgers snagging a prep hitter with some swing concerns but also very loud physical tools. A true center fielder, Farmelo has plus raw power, speed, and arm strength, and could blossom into an impact bat with the Dodgers' superb hitting development. Another prep bat who meets a lot of these criteria (and could unlock defensive value with a move to the outfield) is Missouri prep INF/OF Nazzan Zanetello.

#37 Detroit Tigers select 3B Yohandy Morales, University of Miami

The Player: Morales is an athletic, big-bodied third baseman with an impressive power profile both at the plate and in the field. He has a long swing – which used to be even longer – but exceptional hand speed, and while he doesn’t come with major swing-and-miss concerns, he does miss barrels too often. When he does make hard contact, he tends to pound the ball into the ground or hit it on a line. There is double-plus raw power there, but he will need to lift the ball more in order to tap into that potential. Morales is surprisingly agile at the hot corner, with the ability to track down ground balls and showcase his plus arm strength while throwing on the run.

The Rationale: We see #37 as the floor for Morales, who provides strong defense at 3B with tantalizing raw power. Detroit has some long-term fits around the infield dirt, but 3B is definitely a spot where the Tigers could move Morales quickly through their system.

#38 Cincinnati Reds select 1B/C Raffaele Velasquez, Huntington Beach (CA), committed to Arizona State

The Player: Velazquez has dominated the California prep ranks and while the class has been a bit weaker this year there is no denying his place. He projects more of a 1B long term but the bat is legit 60 game power and even higher raw. He has a simple swing that generates strength from his lower half and allows him to hit for contact and power to all fields. He rarely expands the zone making him a tough out. The body is pretty physically mature for his age which limits projection.

The Rationale: There's been heat to the Reds not allowing Velasquez to get past pick 38, and the talented left-handed SoCal slugger projects to have enough offensive value to move off catching in pro ball. 2022 1st rounder Sal Stewart is somewhat of an analog here--a powerful offensive force that the Reds valued highly for his offense, despite having concerns about a long-term defensive home.

#39 Oakland Athletics select SS Walker Martin, Eaton HS (CO), committed to Arkansas

The Player: A super athletic, tooled up infielder with burgeoning power and excellent bat-to-ball skills? Yup, that's Walker Martin. Martin burst onto the scene with a robust summer circuit last year and continued to excel this spring, boasting a .639/.707/1.666 slash line with nineteen bombs. It's excellent feel for the barrel from the left side of the plate with impressive bat speed and he's already starting to get into his above-average power potential, with his projectable frame suggesting there's more coming. There's enough to suggest that he stays in the dirt moving forward with his athleticism, range, arm, and average speed. While he's older for the class, it's tough to envision this bat making it to Fayetteville.

The Rationale: With the A's going the high-floor college bat route at #6, we expect some money to be available to grab one of the comp round high school bats. Martin fits the bill here, and we think Oakland makes a good enough offer to keep him from making it to Fayetteville.

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Deep(er) Drives: Chase Davis

Continuing the Deep(er) Drives series, we’re going to focus on one player who saw a meteoric rise this season.

Arizona star outfielder Chase Davis entered the 2023 season as a notable draft prospect. A top-50 pick was not out of the question due to a rounded toolbox, however, his offensive game was feast or famine. While Davis’s swing has always drawn favorable looks due to Carlos Gonzalez's parallels, his pre-2023 performance created uncertainty as to whether he could produce at a high level in the pros.

Exorbitant swing and miss rates against secondary pitches were the cause for concern. Davis’s approach has always been above average, working counts, selectively tailoring his attack against fastballs, and working a huge share of walks. Fast forward through 2023 and those strengths remain. Amazingly, the issues with secondary pitches have seemingly dissipated without any real adjustment to his approach rather mostly mechanical alterations to his setup and swing.

With that preface in mind, let’s give a full overview of Davis as a prospect and show comparisons from his 2022 and 2023 campaigns.

Swing mechanics

Davis has always excelled at elevating the baseball because of his bat path and ability to strike the lower half of the baseball. However, that is the main carryover from last year to this one.

In 2022, Davis’s setup and swing actually look pretty unrecognizable from where it stands now. Last year, he deployed a closed stance with his hands set just above his head compared to now where he sets up extremely wide and lowered his hands to roughly head level.

Davis’s 2022 stance and swing

In action, this has allowed Davis’s stride to create most of the potential energy and torque when he brings his front foot from the wide position to his swing launch, focusing most of the movement in his core and lower body. In the past, with his closed stance, Davis’s load involved upper body movement to try and create impact which caused his hands to move more wildly as he initiated his swing.

Davis’s 2023 stance and swing

Quiet hands typically allow for more precise swings and consistency in controlling the barrel. Which is exactly what we saw this year. Not only can that precision reduce swings and misses but increase contact quality. As with every player, there are still some lingering imperfections and there is still some hand waggle at times but the improvement has allowed Davis’s patience and premium raw power to play at elite levels.

The Results

Last year, Davis ran a 31% whiff rate—on the much higher end of the spectrum before overall production becomes hard to sustain. His zone whiff rate was 22%, also much higher than average for quality draft prospects.

This year his overall whiff rate dropped to 20% and his zone whiff rate was halved to 11%. Subsequently, his strikeout rate dropped from 22.8% to 14%. These contact rate improvements are shocking on a year-to-year basis and much of it has to deal with quieting the hands and creating a springier core-based load. Those contact rates are also in very positive territory where Davis can enter the pros without swing-and-miss concerns.

Digging deeper, Davis saw his breaking ball whiff rate drop from 50% down to just 25% and his offspeed whiff rate from 38% to 19%. As a prodigious fastball hitter coming into the year, Davis narrowly improved his whiff rate against heaters from 20% to 18%.

In terms of OPS, his overall OPS ballooned from .997 to 1.231. His OPS against fastballs jumped from 1.116 to 1.324, against offspeed from .958 to 1.510, and against breaking balls from .767 to .917.

Coming into the year, Davis deserved a below-average 40-grade hit tool. His approach was very sound with just a 19% chase rate but the swing-and-miss issues would have been prohibitive of even average on-base production. After remarkable improvements, I’d make the case that Davis’s hit tool grades out above average, if not even plus. He’s patient and now handles all pitch types well with above-average contact rates. Mix in the typical quality of his contact and proclivity to elevate the baseball and there will be walks and extra-base hits galore in Davis’s pro future.

Davis has always had double-plus raw power and these refinements to his bat will allow the mid-110s max EVs to play more frequently. This creates an extremely rare blend of power and contact that few players in college baseball can boast.

In the field

Obviously, Davis is a premier offensive talent in this year’s draft but his potential as a 5-tool player drives the hype of being taken in the top half of round one.

First, Davis can notch times slightly below 4.2 up the line, not burner speed but it’s at least average speed and Davis covers ground a little faster than that once accelerated. Davis has plenty of center field experience from his time on the Cape but has almost exclusively slotted in left field with Arizona.

Davis doesn’t look the part of a plus center fielder but he makes sound reads, gets quick jumps, and takes efficient routes, allowing him to maximize average speed and be a quality outfielder. The athletic profile isn’t a lot different from Tennessee’s Jordan Beck last year. Beck mostly played right field for the Vols but was fundamentally strong and a tick above average speed-wise. Now in the pros, Beck has played roughly a quarter of his games in center and I expect a similar path for Davis.

Unquestionably, Davis possesses plus arm strength and consistent accuracy. As a result, whoever drafts Davis will end up with a plus corner outfielder but they’ll likely juice out his potential to hang in center field where Davis could end up average.

Final thoughts

Frankly, Davis is a special talent and a now refined skillset to back it. The tangible improvements Davis made year-to-year should be viewed in their own light as evidence he can adapt and make adjustments as necessary, a capability that can make or break careers. Davis won’t hang on the board very long and it would not shock me if he turned into a top-10 underslot selection.

2023 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Preview

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s that time of year again.

The summer circuit is alive and well, and as the 2023 draft cycle is entering its final weeks, we’ve begun to turn our attention to next year’s class. One of the more pivotal events of the summer is USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team, which is set to kick off on June 25th with a four-game training camp series to determine the final 26-man roster for international series’ against Chinese Taipei and Japan.

Before we dive into the full 58-man roster for training camp, let’s break down some key notes. Wake Forest leads the way with four players invited to camp, followed by TCU, Stanford, and Florida with three apiece. Schools like North Carolina A&T and Alabama State will have their first invitees in program history, a momentous occasion for those schools. Like last year, there will be some draft-eligible prospects involved, though it’s a smaller number this year, as Xavier Meachem and Nicholas Wilson are the lone 2023 prospects to be invited. There are a handful of 2025 prospects included, as well. Last, but certainly not least, Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee will manage the team this summer, succeeding Ole Miss skipper Mike Bianco.

LHP Ben abeldt, texas Christian (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 32 Games (1 Start), 55 IP, 3.60 ERA, 24:71 BB:K ratio, 2 Saves

Summary: A true freshman that has become one of TCU’s most used bullpen pieces, Abeldt brings serious funk to the mound. He’s added velocity since getting to campus, now sitting in the low-90s consistently with more of a two-seam shape, but he creates a seriously tough angle thanks to the amount of crossfire in his delivery. It’s similar to what Chris Sale is able to do, if not more severe. The slider is his primary off-speed offering, a tight spinning breaking ball with some two-plane break, but it plays up thanks to his angle. He’ll need to add a third weapon, but this is an arm to watch in the 2025 class as a potential starter.

RHP Matt Ager, UC Santa Barbara (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 15 Games (All Starts), 92.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 26:115 K:BB ratio

Summary: A freshman All-American in 2022, Ager transitioned into a starting role with UCSB and was one of their top arms in 2023. He’s got a long, projectable frame with an easy and loose delivery on the bump. He can run the fastball up into the mid-90s, but will generally sit in the low-90s with solid extension and some life through the zone. His best pitch is his slider, a low-80s offering with big sweeping movement and some depth, profiling as his primary strikeout pitch. He’ll toy with a curveball and change-up, but they’re sparsely utilized.

RHP Eldridge Armstrong III, Transfer portal (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 30 Games (0 Starts), 41.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 15:46 BB:K ratio, 1 Save

Summary: Formerly an infield prospect, Armstrong has transitioned fully to the mound and has seen plenty of usage in San Diego State’s bullpen. A low-90s fastball leads his arsenal with solid carry and a flat approach angle, though his best pitch is his slider. It sits in the 81-85 MPH range with tight spin and gyro movement, sometimes acting like a cutter. With that said, he could use some refinement with the pitch. He’ll mix in a curveball and a change-up, but not very often. Armstrong has entered the transfer portal as of June 14th.

RHP Drew Beam, Tennessee (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 17 Games (All Starts), 84.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 23:88 BB:K ratio

Summary: One half of Tennessee’s highly touted pair of arms in next year’s class, Beam is a sturdy workhorse on the bump who has seen an uptick in stuff in 2023. What was more of a low-90s arm in 2022 has bumped up into the mid-90s in 2023, touching 98 MPH, with a mix of carry and run up in the zone and sink at the knees. His curveball has 10-4 shape and can get slurvy, but it’s thrown hard in the low-80s with big sweep and depth. He’ll mix in a cutter-esque slider in the mid-80s and a hard, firm change-up in the high-80s, as well. Having taken the Sunday role the last two years in Knoxville, Beam likely moves higher up in the rotation ranks next spring.

C Karson Bowen, Texas Christian (2025)

2023 Slash Line: .350/.420/.502, .922 OPS, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 9 SB, 25:49 BB:K ratio

Summary: A highly touted prepster in 2022, Bowen made it to TCU and provided an immediate impact. A bulkier catcher, Bowen does a great job of generating contact and spraying the ball to all fields. There’s not a ton of power presently, though as he matures physically, that’ll likely change. He’s got a solid eye at the dish, though he has shown struggles with swing-and-miss against off-speed pitches. He’s got solid actions behind the dish with a strong arm and he’ll be given every chance to stay back there moving forward.

RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 17 Games (16 Starts), 77 IP, 3.74 ERA, 61:109 BB:K ratio

Summary: The 2024 class has plenty of potentially high-end arms and Brecht might just have the most upside of them all. This was his first year in the weekend rotation, posting solid numbers and putting together a few noteworthy outings. The fastball has steep downhill plane in the upper-90s, breaking the triple-digit barrier on numerous occasions, with bat-missing traits, but his slider might be the best pitch in college baseball. Thrown in the upper-80s, Brecht’s slider is a legitimate plus-plus offering, showcasing serious two-plane tilt and a whiff rate over 50% in 2023. He’ll mix in a hard change-up, though it’s a work in progress. His mechanics are rather effortless, though his command and strike-throwing need improvements.

RHP Aiven Cabral, Northeastern (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 19 Games (16 Starts), 83.2 IP, 2.58 ERA, 14:69 BB:K ratio

Summary: A Freshman All-American, Cabral was one of the best pitchers in the Colonial Athletic Association in 2023. There’s some funk to his delivery with a deep arm stroke behind his back leg, creating some deception for hitters. He doesn't throw hard, usually sitting in the high-80s and topping out at 92 MPH, with running life, though he doesn’t miss a ton of bats with it. His primary secondary is a slider in the high-70s with two-plane break and solid bite that has a whiff rate over 40%. He’ll mix in a mid-80s change-up with sink that will blend in with the fastball at times.

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone, Florida (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .325/.391/.735, 1.126 OPS, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, 17:53 BB:K ratio

2023 Pitching Line: 17 Games (All Starts), 73.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 52:85 BB:K

Summary: A two-way star who took the country by storm in 2023, Caglianone is the collegiate version of Shohei Ohtani. A physical presence on the field, Caglianone has thunderous power at the plate with explosively quick hands and bat speed. It plays to all fields and when he gets a hold of one, you know it. He can get aggressive and run into strikeout issues, though he generates a good amount of contact. When he’s not pitching, he’s manning first base. On the bump, he’s been up to 99 MPH from the left side, routinely sitting in the mid-90s with carry and run. The change-up has plenty of velocity separation from the fastball and dives away from righties in the low-80s, and he’ll flash a cutter-esque slider in the high-80s. He’ll need to refine his command, but he’s pretty raw in that aspect presently.

LHP Kayden Campbell, Louisville (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 23 Games (0 Starts), 19.1 IP, 5.12 ERA, 8:25 BB:K ratio, 2 Saves

Summary: Another 2025 eligible arm, Campbell is a unique reliever. There’s serious funk to his delivery, starting with an arm swing and low release that provides deception and allows the fastball to jump on hitters quickly. He’ll primarily sit in the 88-92 MPH range with sink and run, though he’ll throw in a four-seamer with some utility up in the zone at 92-94 MPH. His slider provides plenty of sweep in the high-70s/low-80s with solid spin rates, though it can blend in with a slower curveball. He’ll also throw in a change-up with run.

OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson (2025)

2023 Slash Line: .388/.462/.560, 1.022 OPS, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 24 SB, 33:39 BB:K ratio

Summary: The ACC Freshman of the Year, Cannarella was originally a shortstop prospect, though he has taken over the centerfield position and become one of the best in the country. He’s got a quick bat and smooth swing from the left side, abusing the opposite field with solid pop, though he’s shown an ability to turn on pitches to pull-side with excellent results and power. He’s got a great eye at the plate and will limit the strikeouts while taking his walks. He’s got excellent speed and range at the eight, not to forget that his defense is very good. He looks like he’ll be the next top ACC centerfielder after Vance Honeycutt gets drafted.

RHP Evan Chrest, Jacksonville (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 15 Games (All Starts), 90.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 36:98 BB:K ratio

Summary: The ASUN Freshman of the Year, Chrest was a late riser in the prep ranks last spring, but ultimately took over the Friday night role out of the gate for Jacksonville. He’s on the smaller side of the spectrum, but it’s a legit three-pitch mix. The fastball has a solid mix of ride and run, routinely sitting in the low-90s and there’s enough projectability remaining to see him get into the mid-90s. The slider has extremely high spin and two-plane break in the 80-85 MPH range, profiling as his best offering. His change-up is a runner in the low-80s and projects rather well, already showcasing a hefty whiff rate and gets quite a bit of usage late in outings.

1B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .386/.484/.800, 1.284 OPS, 25 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB, 33:45 BB:K ratio

Summary: After redshirting his first year on campus, Condon had a breakout spring, taking home SEC Freshman of the Year honors and setting the new SEC freshman home run record. He’s got a lankier frame with a good bit of physicality present, coming in at 6’6”, 211 pounds. There’s a ton of easy power in his profile, grading out as plus at the next level with a couple of exit velocities topping 110 MPH. The hit tool itself is promising, limiting swing-and-miss and primarily spraying the gaps with great feel for the barrel. Defensively, he’s split time between first base and the outfield, playing solid defense at both positions with a good arm. He’s the third-ever Bulldog position player to receive an invite and the first since Kyle Farmer in 2012.

RHP Christian Coppola, Rutgers (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 13 Games (All Starts), 66 IP, 3.68 ERA, 27:71 BB:K ratio

Summary: A true freshman, Coppola pitched his way into Rutgers’ Friday night role after starting the year as the Saturday starter. He doesn’t throw hard just yet, primarily sitting in the high-80s/low-90s with plenty of armside run. His breaking ball is his best pitch, a high-70s pitch with a high whiff rate that he can manipulate the shape of. He’ll throw more of a true slider with two-plane shape closer to 80 MPH, whereas the slower breaking ball looks more like a curveball with tons of depth. He’ll throw in a hard change-up that’s a work in progress. Expect Coppola to be one of the best arms in the Big Ten for at least the next two years.

C Jacob Cozart, NC State (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .301/.392/.546, .938 OPS, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 0 SB, 24:38 BB:K ratio

Summary: Cozart’s rough freshman campaign ended on a bright spot in May, translating into a breakout campaign in 2023 for the sophomore backstop. There’s been added loft to his swing and the contact has drastically improved from the left side, including better plate discipline. His power mainly plays to the pull side, though he can utilize the opposite field gap. Behind the plate, he’s got an excellent arm with solid defense, plus he’s one of the best framers in the country. He’ll need to shore up his chase rate, but overall, it’s a solid package of tools.

INF Kaelen Culpepper, Kansas State (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .325/.423/.576, .999 OPS, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 9 SB, 16:27 BB:K ratio

Summary: Despite missing a month of the season due to a hand injury, Culpepper was a catalyst in Kansas State’s lineup when he returned. He’s got solid plate discipline, limiting the strikeouts, though he’s in no rush to rack up the walks just yet. He’s got solid pull-side juice in his bat and does not get phased by fastballs, though he can be vulnerable to breaking balls away from him. He plays a solid third base presently, showcasing solid range and a strong arm, though there’s a chance that he could move off the position. If he stays healthy and irons out some warts in 2024, he has a chance to be a Day 1 pick.

LHP Alton Davis II, Alabama (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 25 Games (0 Starts), 33.2 IP, 5.35 ERA, 12:32 BB:K ratio

Summary: Davis is the true definition of a string bean figure. At 6’5”, 185 pounds, he’s as wiry as they come, but don’t let the frame fool you, he’s benefitted greatly from a collegiate weight room. Davis sits comfortably in the 92-95 MPH range, touching upwards of 97-98 MPH, with downhill plane and some life through the zone. He has two distinct breaking balls, a mid-80s slider that has plenty of sweeping action and a two-plane curveball in the high-70s, both of which have solid spin numbers. He was just a pure relief arm in 2023, but Davis has the makings of being a weekend starter for Alabama.

LHP Cade Fisher, Florida (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 25 Games (2 Starts), 44.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 12:42 BB:K ratio, 2 Saves

Summary: Don’t look now, but looks like Florida was able to clone Hunter Barco. Fisher has been impressive in his first year on campus, nailing down a key role in the bullpen and accumulating a couple of starts. He primarily sits in the low-90s with a ton of running life, mainly due to the nature of his low release that hovers around the five-foot mark. The slider profiles as his best pitch, a low-80s sweeper from a tough angle that he can backfoot to righties and locate away from lefties for chases. He’ll throw a change-up that mimics the fastball shape with plenty of running life, as well. He’s looking to be one of the better 2025 eligible arms down the line.

LHP Dominic Fritton, NC State (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 17 Games (9 Starts), 62.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 24:75 BB:K ratio, 3 Saves

Summary: A draft-eligible sophomore, Fritton burst onto the scene as the Wolfpack’s Sunday starter before being moved into an Evan Justice-esque role in late April. It’s a three-pitch mix for Fritton, though it’s a fastball-heavy attack, and for good reason. It’s a low launch heater with a flat approach angle and great riding life in the zone that plays up from the low-90s velocity he sits at. There’s a mid-70s curveball and a low-to-mid-80s change-up, though he lacks feel for both and doesn’t throw a ton of strikes with either.

LHP Devin Futrell, Vanderbilt (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (15 Starts), 83.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 20:72 BB:K ratio

Summary: Futrell has evolved into one of Vanderbilt’s better arms, moving into the weekend rotation and becoming a bit of a workhorse. He’s the classic projectable lefty with a loose arm, slight crossfire, and solid athleticism. He’ll top out at 93 MPH on the heater, routinely sitting in the 88-92 MPH range with good ride and run, commanding it very well and having solid extension. His change-up is the best secondary, an upper-70s offering with big tumbling life away from righties. He’ll mix in a slider in the same velocity band with depth and a slower curveball.

RHP Austin Gordon, Clemson (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (All Starts), 84 IP, 4.61 ERA, 22:76 BB:K ratio

Summary: A primary reliever in 2022, Gordon has become a legitimate workhorse for Erik Bakich. It’s a fastball-heavy diet, with the pitch sitting in the low-90s with solid shape, though he doesn’t miss many bats with it. He’ll throw a low-80s slider and a knuckle curve in the high-70s, though he tends to spike them and will need some refinement. He’ll throw in a low-80s change-up to lefties and at times, he’ll dabble with an upper-80s cutter. There’s enough projection to suggest that he can get into the mid-90s, though he’ll need to add some deception to his delivery.

INF Ethan “Duce” Gourson, UCLA (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .319/.438/.515, .953 OPS, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 8 SB, 36:51 BB:K ratio

Summary: Primarily a middle infielder for UCLA this year, Gourson built upon a solid freshman year by showcasing why he’s one of the best west coast bats in the 2024 class. It’s a sweet swing from the left side with solid contact and has some decent power that plays gap-to-gap well. He profiles as a potential average or better hitter, though if there’s any knock against him at the plate, it's that he expands the zone a bit and will need to cut down the strikeout rate. He’s likely to profile best at second base defensively, as he doesn’t quite have the arm strength required for a shortstop.

OF Rodney Green Jr., California (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .293/.388/.558, .946 OPS, 14 HR, 38 RBI, 29 SB, 32:77 BB:K ratio

Summary: Physicality is the name of the game with Green. He has a physical presence in the box with a solid left-handed swing built for lofting balls over the fence. It’s above-average to plus raw power in his bat that plays primarily to his pull side with ease. He does have contact issues, namely swing-and-miss. He’ll need to refine his plate discipline in order to reach his ceiling. He’s got excellent speed and plays a very solid center field, showcasing a lot of range and very good instincts.

lhp jOSH hARTLE, wAKE fOREST (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 18 Games (17 Starts), 102.1 IP, 2.81 ERA, 24:140 BB:K ratio

Summary: The transformation that Hartle has had between his freshman and sophomore years is on par with what Rhett Lowder experienced. The body is rather projectable and he creates a tough angle to the plate, utilizing a wider release point while standing on the first base side of the rubber. The sinker mainly sits in the 87-92 MPH range, tickling 93-94 MPH, but the addition of a cutter has given him new life. The cutter flashes plus with tighter spin, pairing well with a sweepy slider and a more vertical curveball that he locates down in the zone. The change-up has little to no velocity separation from the fastball and mimics its shape. It’s likely that he’ll add more velocity and if he does, it’s a profile that screams Day 1.

RHP Luke Holman, Transfer Portal (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (15 Starts), 81 IP, 3.67 ERA, 31:87 BB:K ratio

Summary: Holman stepped up as a big contributor for Alabama’s staff when Grayson Hitt and Ben Hess went down with injuries, leading them to a hosting spot. He’s got a long and lanky frame with everything coming out of an over-the-top arm slot. The fastball has good carry and a steeper plane, sitting in the low-90’s consistently and getting up to 96 MPH. The slider and curveball both stand out, with the slider showcasing tighter spin in the 81-85 MPH range and the curveball having big depth and bite in the high-70s. He can kill spin with his change-up, though he doesn’t use it often. His command does come and go at times, though there’s enough athleticism to suggest he’ll improve there. Holman entered the transfer portal on June 22nd.

LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 11 Games (All Starts), 50.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 24:56 BB:K ratio

Summary: While Holton did miss the end of the season with an injury, it looks like he’ll make his return to Cary and attempt to make the national team for the second year in a row. He creates a tough angle with some crossfire and deception, plus he’s seen a velocity uptick on the fastball. He was consistently in the mid-90s when healthy and got up to 98 MPH with serious life in the zone. The slider profiled as his best secondary, a pure sweeper with tilt and serious bite in the low-80s that was tough on lefties and had a whiff rate near 50%. He’ll throw an upper-70s curveball with solid depth to steal strikes and tinkers with a change-up, though it needs refinement. If he can stay fully healthy in 2024, expect Holton to go pretty high.

RHP Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (15 Starts), 87.1 IP, 4.43 ERA, 22:116 BB:K ratio

Summary: Johnson is not your orthodox starting pitcher. It all starts with a rather unique delivery, which has an abbreviated turn on the rubber before he pushes toward home plate. His arsenal is not led by his fastball, but rather his slider. It’s a high-70s/low-80s pitch that he can manipulate the shape of, mostly showcasing sweeping life but he’ll add some depth when needed. The fastball has tickled triple digits and primarily sits in the mid-90s with sink and run, working best horizontally. The change-up tumbles away from lefties in the mid-80s, though it takes a backseat to the rest of the arsenal.

OF Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .307/.397/.575, .972 OPS, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 4 SB, 25:46 BB:K ratio

Summary: An extremely physical player, Jordan is one of the most potent bats in the country. There is some concern with swing-and-miss and contact, but there’s a ton of bat speed, loft, and insane power from the right side of the dish. He’s also an excellent runner despite his physicality, posting plus run times. There’s legitimate centerfield potential with his speed, plus he’s got a solid arm in the outfield. He’s the fourteenth player in program history to receive an invite and the first since Logan Tanner went to Cary in 2021.

INF Seaver King, Wake Forest (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .411/.457/.699, 1.156 OPS, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 13 SB, 18:26 BB:K ratio

Summary: King posted loud numbers at Wingate, a DII school, before hitting the transfer portal and making his way to Winston-Salem. He’s a twitchy infielder with a polished hit tool from the right side of the plate and produced quality exit velocities this spring. He’s not in a big rush to take his walks, but he doesn’t strike out a ton, either. He’s handled shortstop in the past, though his throwing arm likely limits him to second base at Wake Forest, where he’ll likely replace impact transfer Justin Johnson. I’d circle this name as a breakout candidate in 2024.

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .349/.525/.758, 1.283 OPS, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 5 SB, 62:49 BB:K ratio

Summary: A mountain of a human being, Kurtz’s profile is both unique and stupidly good. You can just tell by the gaudy numbers above this summary that the offensive potential with Kurtz is sky high. He can run into issues with being too passive and letting arms get to the weapons deep in counts, but he has an extremely strong eye and loves his walks dearly. Not to forget, he uses the whole field to spray line drives and the power potential is robust with him. Despite being limited to first base, he provides plenty of defensive value at the position with great lateral movement and quick feet. This profile screams first round in 2024.

OF Jace Laviolette, Texas A&M (2025)

2023 Slash Line: .287/.414/.632, 1.047 OPS, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 18 SB, 48:75 BB:K ratio

Summary: It’s not too often that a freshman is mentioned as having some of the best power in the country, but that’s exactly what Laviolette has. A seriously imposing figure, Laviolette’s power has plus-plus potential and it plays to all fields. There’s significant loft to his swing and the power comes very easily, plus he’s shown flashes with the hit tool. He’ll need to tone down the swing-and-miss, but he’s got a respectable chase rate. He’s got the speed to stick in the outfield, likely profiling as a corner outfield bat with solid defensive chops. This profile has 1-1 potential in 2025.

c/1B Anthony Martinez, UC Irvine (2025)

2023 Slash Line: .394/.471/.619, 1.090 OPS, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 0 SB, 25:27 BB:K ratio

Summary: One of a few 2025 eligible players that received invites, Martinez has been a force in the Big West, leading the conference in multiple offensive categories. He produces a solid amount of contact from the left side with a balanced swing, utilizing the whole field. There’s solid raw juice in the bat and it primarily plays to the pull side for Martinez. He split time between catcher and first base in 2023, though he’s likely to be a first baseman long-term. He’s the first Anteater to receive an invite since Trenton Denholm did in 2019.

RHP Michael Massey, Wake Forest (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 27 Games (1 Start), 41.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 16:76 BB:K ratio, 1 Save

Summary: A transfer for Tulane, Massey made himself right at home in Wake Forest’s bullpen, becoming a late-inning monster for opposing teams. He’s a physical presence on the mound and utilizes a higher release with a very short arm circle. Massey’s heater is diabolical, utilizing a cut/ride shape in the mid-90s and a flat approach angle, missing bats over 40% of the time. The slider is just as good, sitting in the mid-80s with some sweep and high spin, missing bats over 50% of the time. That’s as dynamic of a one-two punch as you can get. He’s tinkered with a change-up, though the results are very inconsistent.

RHP Xavier Meachem, North Carolina A&T (2023)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (7 Starts), 48.1 IP, 5.59 ERA, 26:47 BB:K ratio, 5 Saves

Summary: USA Baseball dips into the HBCU demographic here, which I must say is an excellent development. Draft eligible this year, Meachem will be the first NC A&T athlete to receive an invite to Cary. He got some starts down the stretch after being the closer to start the year, showcasing a solid fastball/slider combination. He’s gotten up to 97 MPH, maintaining 91-94 MPH with solid carry and high spin rates. The slider is a pure sweeper with spin rates approaching 2,900 RPMs in the 82-85 MPH range. He’ll throw in a curveball and change-up, as well. Strike-throwing will need refinement, but if he can’t make it as a starter, there’s serious potential in the bullpen.

LHP Omar Melendez, Alabama State (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (15 Starts), 93 IP, 2.52 ERA, 27:96 BB:K ratio

Summary: Another HBCU athlete invited to Cary, Melendez is the first Alabama State athlete to get this honor. He does not throw very hard at all, averaging in the mid-80s with the fastball, but there’s some deception and life that lets it play up. The change-up is his best secondary which fades hard away from righties in the mid/upper-70s that has a whiff rate over 40%. He’ll sprinkle in some breaking balls, but it’s primarily a fastball/change-up heavy game plan. He’s able to repeat his delivery rather well for a guy of his stature (6’6”, 210 lbs.) and throws plenty of strikes, as well as eating plenty of innings.

LHP Mason Molina, Texas Tech (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (All Starts), 83.1 IP, 3.67 ERA, 35:108 BB:K ratio

Summary: A legitimate workhorse, Molina quietly turned in a very solid campaign in 2023 for the Red Raiders. There’s solid athleticism and he’s got a physical figure on the bump with some bulkiness. He usually sits in the 87-91 MPH range, touching 92-93 MPH, though the pitch plays up from the fringy velocity thanks to excellent carry with some cut. The slider is in the upper-70s with tight spin and gets plenty of whiffs, as well as averaging close to 2,700 RPMs. There’s a big bending curveball in the mid-70s and he’ll sprinkle in a change-up with some tumble, though he can use some refinement there.

OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .336/.461/.611, 1.072 OPS, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, 51:64 BB:K ratio.311

2023 Pitching Line: 10 Games (2 Starts), 14 IP, 12.21 ERA, 11:19 BB:K ratio.304/

Summary: Making a return to Cary, Montgomery has shown progress with the bat in 2023. He’s a switch-hitting outfielder with robust power from both sides of the plate and a knack for spraying the ball to all fields. He’s been able to cut down the whiffs a bit, but what’s more impressive is the large jump in walks, going from 18 in 2022 to 51 in 2023. There’s progress to be made still, but it’s been encouraging thus far. He profiles best in right field, where his bazooka for a right arm will be let loose with excellent arm strength and accuracy. He’s also had time on the bump, getting into the upper-90s, though he’s had plenty of struggles and likely won’t pitch at the next level.

C Malcolm Moore, Stanford (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .311/.386/.564, .950 OPS, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB, 21:50 BB:K ratio

Summary: One of Stanford’s biggest recruits out of high school, Moore has burst onto the scene in the Pac-12. It’s an admittedly wacky stance at the plate, though the load is very condensed and he explodes through the zone. Think Anthony Rizzo, except maybe a bit more open and a love for toe taps. There’s plenty of power, primarily from center field to the right field foul pole, though he’s going to have to tone down the aggressiveness at the plate. He’s likely to stick behind the dish long term with solid athleticism and a strong arm, as well. He’ll be draft-eligible in 2024 due to his age, though he’ll be one of the youngest players on the college side.

INF Christian Moore, Tennessee (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .304/.444/.603, 1.047 OPS, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 16 SB, 50:67 BB:K ratio

Summary: A highly touted recruit out of high school, Moore is a rather physical specimen for the Volunteers. He has plenty of bat speed and power, which plays to all fields rather easily, and he’ll utilize the gaps for doubles. He runs into plenty of issues with whiffs and strikeouts, but he’s able to generate a high walk rate despite the rather aggressive nature at the dish. If he’s able to get the hit tool closer to average, Moore likely sees his name called relatively early. Defensively, he’s primarily manned second base in his collegiate career and that’s likely where he’d profile moving forward due to his arm strength.

RHP Brandon Neely, Florida (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 33 Games (0 Starts), 51.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 19:68 BB:K ratio, 13 Saves

Summary: Florida’s closer throughout the year, Neely has been a bright spot out of the bullpen, tied for the sixth most saves in the country. There’s some deception to his delivery thanks to some crossfire and that helps his fastball play up. It’s an electric heater, sitting in the low-to-mid-90s with serious life in the zone, missing a ton of bats in the process. He has a bullet/gyro slider in the low-t0-mid-80s with some life, though it lacks sufficient bite. The change-up has some potential with fading life to lefties, though Neely doesn’t utilize it often. It would not be a surprise to see Neely thrusted into a rotation spot in 2024, though the off-speed arsenal will need to improve.

RHP Tyson Neighbors, Kansas State (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 25 Games (0 Starts), 48.2 IP, 1.85 ERA, 16:86 BB:K ratio, 11 Saves

Summary: There may be no better reliever in the country than Neighbors. A physical figure on the bump, Neighbors has been otherworldly dominant for Kansas State in 2023, striking out 70 batters in just 38.1 innings. The fastball has been up to 99 MPH, routinely living in the mid-90s with massive riding life in the zone, though his slider may be one of the best pitches in next year’s class. A legitimate plus pitch, his mid-80s slider is diabolical, showcasing tight spin and devastating late bite with a whiff rate over 65% (!) in 2023. There’s a low-80s curveball with more depth, too. He’ll be the second Wildcat in school history to adorn the stars and stripes, the first since Craig Wilson in 1992.

RHP Mason Nichols, Ole Miss (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 23 Games (0 Starts), 38 IP, 5.45 ERA, 16:45 BB:K ratio, 4 Saves

Summary: A returning invitee from 2022, Nichols served as a key arm in Ole Miss’ bullpen. He’s a two-pitch guy at the present with a long, lanky frame that suggests he’ll throw harder once he fills out physically. The fastball sits in the low-90s, but the pitch has insane carry at the top of the zone and misses a ton of bats as a result. His slider has some two-plane break and plays best when down in the zone, though he can get inconsistent with the pitch. He’ll need to add a third pitch if he is to have a chance to start next year, though there’s solid potential here if he can refine the slider.

INF Griff O’Ferrall, Virginia (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .396/.453/.495, .948 OPS, 1 HR, 42 RBI, 16 SB, 29:38 BB:K ratio

Summary: O’Ferrall was a big part of Virginia’s top-of-the-order gauntlet in 2023. He’s a shorter, scrappy infielder with solid defense at shortstop, though he likely profiles more as a second baseman at the next level, maybe even a utility guy. His power is rather limited, but he makes up for that in pure hitting ability. He can lace line drives to all fields and can really run, creating mayhem on the basepaths. His 108 hits in 2023 are the most ever in a single season in program history, topping Phil Gosselin’s mark of 100 in 2010.

RHP Fran Oschell III, Duke (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 22 Games (0 Starts), 39.1 IP, 0.69 ERA, 18:66 BB:K ratio

Summary: Nice.

Oschell broke out in a big way out of the Blue Devils’ bullpen in 2023. The violence in his delivery has toned down a bit and it’s a funky operation with deceptive motions. The fastball is a metric monster, sitting in the 92-97 MPH range with seriously good ride and extension, as well as a flatter approach angle. It profiles as one of the best fastballs in the 2024 class and boasts a whiff rate of around 40% this year. He throws a breaking ball in the low-80s with two-plane break, though he’ll need to refine it.

OF Austin Overn, Southern California (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .314/.402/.530, .932 OPS, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 16 SB, 29:46 BB:K ratio

Summary: A draft-eligible sophomore, Overn is one of the fastest players in the entire country. He’s got a short, compact swing from the left side with very quick hands, spraying the ball to all fields with some power to his pull side. He recognizes spin well, though his chase rate is high and he does have some issues with higher-end velocity. He had more triples than doubles in 2023, recording fourteen triples (!) and eleven doubles. His excellent speed will allow him to cover plenty of ground in center field with solid defense. He’ll be a polarizing prospect to watch in 2024.

OF Ethan Petry, South Carolina (2025)

2023 Slash Line: .376/.471/.733, 1.204 OPS, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 4 SB, 33:59 BB:K ratio

Summary: It’s not too often that you see a true freshman torch the SEC, but that’s exactly what Petry did in 2023. He has insane bat speed and loft to his swing, which helps him generate his power, which grades out as plus presently and likely becomes double-plus as he fills out his frame. He’ll utilize the whole field with the hit tool, too, though he does have some issues with breaking balls and can get streaky with the strikeouts. He got to campus as a third baseman, but he’s seen time in the outfield, where he has a solid arm. In all likelihood, I would not be surprised if he moved back to the infield when all is said and done.

RHP Kyle Robinson, Texas Tech (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 18 Games (5 Starts), 45.1 IP, 5.36 ERA, 19:45 BB: K ratio, 2 Saves

Summary: Another Red Raider to receive an invite, Robinson split time between the rotation and bullpen in 2023. He’s a tall, lanky pitcher with an easy delivery on the mound, though he’s not overly athletic. He usually sits in the low-90s with some armside run, getting up into the 95-96 MPH range when he rears back. He sells his mid-80s change-up very well and has confidence throwing to any batter. He’ll throw it with plenty of conviction and it falls off the table. He’s got a tight slider in the low-80s that has promise, though he does not use it much. He’ll likely find his way into Texas Tech’s rotation in 2024.

RHP Matt Scott, Stanford (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 24 Games (12 Starts), 67 IP, 5.10 ERA, 37:62 BB:K ratio, 1 Save.

Summary: Don’t let the stats fool you, Scott profiles as one of the best 2025 eligible arms in the country. He’s a mountain of a human being at 6’7”, 231 pounds and despite the size, he repeats his delivery relatively well. He usually sits in the low-90s, though he’s run it up to 96 MPH with a mix of carry/run and a steeper downhill plane. His best secondary might be his change-up, which features diving action away from lefties with solid velocity separation in the low-80s. The slider can be inconsistent, though when on, it’s got gyro movement in the mid-80s and flashes above-average or better.

INF Kodey Shojinaga, Kansas (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .378/.421/.526, .947 OPS, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, 16:25 BB:K ratio

Summary: Shojinaga, a native of Hawaii, will be Kansas’ first invitee since Ryan Zeferjahn competed for a spot back in 2018. There’s some physicality to his frame, including a sturdy lower half, and has the look of a catcher, though he’s been converted into an infielder. He runs high contact rates from the right side and will utilize the gaps often, with most of his over-the-fence power playing to his pull side. He does need to lower the chase rate a bit, but he does a great job limiting the swing-and-miss. He has some versatility to his profile, though he primarily played second base in 2023 between his time at Kansas and a brief stint with the Bourne Braves.

INF Anthony Silva, Texas Christian (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .330/.416/.471, .887 OPS, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 17 SB, 23:33 BB:K ratio

Summary: A draft-eligible sophomore, Silva turned in an excellent season at TCU and has lined himself up as one of the better collegiate bats available next summer. He’s a wiry-framed shortstop with solid contact abilities from the right side, as well as solid gap-to-gap power. As he fills out his frame, expect a jump in power production. He’s got a very good eye at the plate and doesn’t strike out often, though he’s in no big rush to take his walks either. Defensively, he’ll stick at the six moving forward. He’s a premium defender with solid range and athleticism, as well as a really strong arm.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 18 Games (11 Starts), 71.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 42:109 BB:K ratio, 2 Saves

Summary: One of the most consistent arms in the SEC, Smith was given a hybrid role, coming out of the bullpen for longer outings while still getting a fair share of starts. He creates a tough angle with his delivery and there’s plenty of deception. He’s run the heater into the upper-90s, though it usually sits in the 92-95 MPH range with solid extension and late life, varying shapes. The slider continues to be a demon, especially against lefties, with sweeping life in the mid-80s, getting close to 90 MPH. He’ll throw in a splitter at times, though there needs to be continued development there. Strike-throwing will need refinement, too, but it’s a fun package.

RHP Parker Smith, Rice (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 15 Games (All Starts), 88 IP, 3.58 ERA, 23:82 BB:K ratio

Summary: A legitimate workhorse in every sense of the word, Smith is the first Owl to be invited to Cary since Matt Canterino in 2019. It’s a really low release and he hides the ball well in his delivery with a whippy arm action. He’s been up to 96 MPH, though he’ll live in the low-90s with solid command and heavy life. His change-up doesn’t have a ton of velocity separation in the mid-80s, but it runs a ton and Smith has confidence in the pitch. It currently profiles as his best offering. He’ll also show off a sweepy slider in the low-80s.

C/OF Ryan Stafford, Cal Poly (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .313/.393/.500, .893 OPS, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB, 22:38 BB:K ratio

Summary: Stafford has done nothing but hit while under the tutelage of Larry Lee. There’s excellent bat-to-ball skills, utilizing the whole field, and possessing decent pull side juice from the right side. He’s primarily been the catcher for Cal Poly, with a good throwing arm and a solid blocker, and has manned left field a bit, too. He has a slender build for a catcher, though physicality is already present. He’s the eleventh Mustang in program history to receive an invite to Cary.

RHP Pablo Torres, bethune-Cookman (2025)

2023 Pitching Line: 15 Games (4 Starts), 40 IP, 6.30 ERA, 26:52 BB:K ratio

Summary: Torres is on the smaller side of the spectrum for a pitcher, but it’s a fun two-pitch mix for the Bethune-Cookman righty. Utilizing drop and drive mechanics, Torres has a really low release that helps his fastball play up from the high-80s velocity that he has. He’s gotten up to 92 MPH and utilizes a cut/ride fastball shape to get whiffs. He’ll pair it with a low-80s slider that has some sweeping life to it, though it can get soft and uncompetitive at times. There’s some projectability here and the easy nature of his mechanics suggest he could start down the line.

INF/RHP Mitch Voit, Michigan (2025)

2023 Slash Line: .267/.338/.439, .777 OPS, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, 18:50 BB:K ratio

2023 Pitching Line: 19 Games (1 Start), 36 IP, 3.25 ERA, 12:25 BB:K ratio, 5 Saves

Summary: Voit is an intriguing two-way prospect who shined in his first year in the Big Ten. On the mound, he’s primarily been a reliever with an arsenal dominated by his fastball, which sits in the 89-93 MPH range with a mix of carry and run. He’ll mix in a change-up and breaking ball, but sparsely uses them. As a hitter, he’s got a solid swing from the right side and likes to utilize the opposite field. There’s good power potential here to all fields, too. He’ll need to shore up his approach and plate discipline, as he struggles against breaking balls and runs a high strikeout rate, but the clay is there to improve for Voit on both sides of the ball.

INF J.J. Wetherholt, West Virginia (2024)

2023 Slash Line: .449/.517/.787, 1.304 OPS, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 36 SB, 26:22 BB:K ratio

Summary: Simply put, Wetherholt was one of the best, if not the best, bats in the country in 2023. Wetherholt utilizes an open stance at the plate and has very mature plate discipline, rarely striking out and producing a ton of quality contact. His bat lives in the zone for a long time and he doesn’t get pull-happy, utilizing the whole field to his advantage. He’s a menace on the basepaths, tallying thirty-six stolen bases on the year. He’s primarily played second base throughout 2023, and that’s likely where he’ll stay long-term, though third base could be an option. Should Wetherholt make the final 26-man roster, he’d be the first-ever Mountaineer to do so.

RHP Nicholas Wilson, Southern (2023)

2023 Pitching Line: 15 Games (13 Starts), 86.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 23:101 BB:K ratio

Summary: A JUCO transfer from Texas, Wilson has excelled with Southern out of the SWAC league. An easy operation on the bump, Wilson struck out 101 batters in 2023, including a four-game stretch of double-digit strikeouts in late April and early May. He will sit in the high-80s, touching 90+ MPH at times, with plenty of cut to the pitch that plays up thanks to a flat approach angle. His slider is a solid offering, showcasing plenty of sweeping life and bite in the high-70s and garners plenty of whiffs in the process. He is set to turn 22 in a couple of weeks, so he is eligible for the 2023 draft.

RHP Jay Woolfolk, Virginia (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 30 Games (0 Starts), 34 IP, 2.91 ERA, 20:38 BB:K ratio, 9 Saves

Summary: Woolfolk will be the latest in a long line of recent invitees from Virginia. One of the more reliable relievers in their stable, Woolfolk is sturdily built and showcases solid athleticism on the bump. He’s been up to 97 MPH with the fastball, primarily sitting in the low-to-mid 90’s with a two-seam/sinker movement profile. The slider has two shapes, a true slider with more depth in the low-to-mid 80’s and more of a cutter in the high-80’s with solid spin rates. The change-up could wind up being his best offering, a mid-80’s offering that really tumbles away from lefties.

RHP Trey Yesavage, East Carolina (2024)

2023 Pitching Line: 16 Games (14 Starts), 76 IP, 2.61 ERA, 23:105 BB:K ratio, 1 Save

Summary: A full-time reliever in 2022, Yesavage became ECU’s ace in 2023, putting together a very solid season before arm fatigue caught up to him for a bit. The stuff is electric, led by a fastball with excellent riding life that sits anywhere from 91-96 MPH, topping out at 98 MPH. He mixes in a mid-80s slider, a low-80s curveball, and a low-80s splitter, all of which have high whiff rates. His strike-throwing has improved quite a bit, too. He’s currently one of the top pitching prospects in the 2024 class.

Draft Day Scenarios - Cincinnati Reds

As part of a new series accompanying the launch of the Prospects Live Mock Draft Machine, I’ll be highlighting draft day scenarios for a number of teams. What better way to use or new tool then put it to work before July 9th rolls around. To see where to start, I took to Twitter to see what team(s) the readers wanted to see me dive into.

The readers spoke and it felt apropos that the first team I saw mentioned was the much-discussed Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to a strong, young core of players like Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Hunter Greene, and of course Elly De La Cruz; it appears the buzz around the Redlegs is only intensifying. If you sensed a theme in the names I mentioned regarding the core of the team, you were right. The middle of the infield looks to be crowded for a long, long time. Cruz, India, McLain, Steer, Arroyo, Collier, and Marte are all names who should take the majority of playing time in the middle of the diamond for the foreseeable future.

Could those influence draft day decisions this coming July? We know teams don’t typically draft for Major League positional needs, but in a draft with strong frontline college pitching and stout prep outfielders; you have to wonder if the Cincy decision-makers sense a window creaking open and look to seize the opportunity. No matter what avenue they choose, the picks at hand offer plenty of intrigue.

Let’s set the scene on what the Reds have in this draft, specifically the first five rounds:

Picks:

• 7th overall ($6,275,200)

• 38th overall ($2,255,100)

• 43rd overall ($1,998,200)

• 74th overall ($975,100)

• 105th overall ($640,300)

• 141st overall ($451,100)

Overall, the Reds have the sixth-highest available bonus pool in the league, totaling $13,785,200. So what would likely scenarios be?

Scenario #1

In this simulation, things end up working out on the chalky side. The top five players on the Prospects Live Draft Board get selected in succession to each other, while the Oakland Athletics serve as a bit of a wildcard. Being in a situation where it looks as if they are a few years from playing competitive baseball, they aim for a high-upside, middle-of-the-diamond player in Arjun Nimmala. This allows the Reds to have their choice of the litter in regard to players like Dollander, Lowder, Teel, Meyer, Gonzalez, and Wilson. 

As you can see, acting as the decision maker here, I chose Kyle Teel and paid him the full slot value. Teel is one of the premier college bats in this class, a pure athlete who gets high marks behind the plate. Some even say he plays catcher like a shortstop, which points towards a profile that stays behind the dish. Beyond that, you’re simply buying a high-level bat.  A .418/.484/.673 slash line should tell you all you need to know. 

Later in the draft, we are able to catch one of the prep shortstops as Adrian Santana finds his way down to pick No. 38. Feels as if with the amount of high-level prep SS in this class that one is bound to slip just a touch. We’re able to reign in Santana Jr. at just over slot value. 

With our third selection, we are able to snag a potential frontline starter in Brandon Sproat. The stuff certainly suggests frontline, however, tweaks to the overall profile are needed. The organizational pitching infrastructure in place offers us to trust that the staff can make adjustments with Sproat and turn this into a great pick. The same can be said for Nick Maldonado who we snagged at pick No. 105 after selecting an extra high-upside prep middle infielder in Trent Caraway at 73 because you can never have enough of those. Jake Cunningham rounds out our five picks to offer just a touch of slot relief, but it’s certainly no throwaway. Cunningham possesses tools that are off the charts, putting it all together will be the test. If it clicks, we’re talking big leaguer.

Scenario #2

In this simulation, we catch a falling Max Clark. This is certainly not an outlandish happening. There's a real chance with the chaos of the MLB Draft that one of Jenkins or Clark finds their way to pick No. 7. For as long as this draft class has been talked about, Clark has been tabbed as one of, if not the best talent in the whole class. It’s an otherworldly high school stat line that includes a batting average in the .600s. Clark is more than a basher, it’s tools across the board. Speed, defense, plate discipline - Clark does it all well. Getting this type of upside at a position of need, at this type of value feels like a no-brainer for the Reds. We do have to pay a touch over-slot to make it happen but Clark feels worth it. 

We find a similar profile with Colton Ledbetter at Pick No. 38. However, Ledbetter comes from the college ranks and may not have the sky-high ceiling of Clark -  the profile is semi-reminiscent. Tanner Witt at pick No. 43 follows a similar path to that of Sproat and Maldonado from Scenario 1. Witt lacks the typical track record thanks to missing a large portion of 2023 due to injury but it’s a bet on the traits and pitching development infrastructure. 

Wolters is a prep arm who has a major helium attached to his name right now. Up to 98 MPH, the big-bodied righty is gaining serious steam. If we’re lucky enough to see Wolters fall this far, we likely have to pay up to keep him from honoring his commitment to Arizona. We make it happen and go over-slot for Wolters but bring it back down to earth with the succeeding picks in Carson Roccaforte and Marcus Brown. A couple of guys who have seen major success at high-level college programs. Roccaforte falls in line with the Ledbetter profile and Brown is reminiscent of Trey Faltine, a fellow shortstop and Reds’ selection from 2022.

Conclusion

With the excitement level rising at the major league level, the opportunity within the 2023 Draft should offer just as much excitement for Cincinnati fans. Largely because this draft class is abnormally stout in its’ top fifty prospects. Just so happens the Reds hold three picks in the top 43. It’s an advantageous situation for a team looking to supplement an already young core. Flexibility is paramount in the chaos-filled MLB Draft. Reds’ brass will have plenty of that. 

Who do you think the Reds should target at No. 7?