It’s been a minute, but we are proud to release our fourth and final mock draft in the hours leading up to Sunday night. This mock draft will feature 39 picks—the first round through competitive balance round A—and will take blurbs from our board to highlight the player and compliment them with the rationale for why they are being taken at their respective pick. We really hope you enjoy it! Special thanks to MLB Draft Director Tyler Jennings and Senior Draft Team members Will Hoefer and Brian Recca, as well as all the members of our Prospects Live Draft Team.
#1 Pittsburgh Pirates select RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State University
The Player: What Skenes has done in 2023 has been something that college baseball has not seen since the Stephen Strasburg era. Through ten starts, he has struck out batters at a 51.3% clip. Pure domination. What once was a fastball sitting 92-95 MPH has become an upper-90s sinker that has broken the triple-digit barrier on numerous occasions with big running life, paired with a high-80s sweepy slider and a solid change-up in the same velocity band that plays well off the heater. He's showcased excellent command so far and will be the first arm off the board unless something happens.
The Rationale: Crews or Skenes? That's been the question for much of the spring. Even though we have Crews ranked #1 on our board, the chatter we're hearing suggests Skenes is a better fit for Pittsburgh at 1-1. Crews is rumored to have a much larger bonus demand than Skenes, which could cause Pittsburgh to pivot away from Crews if they feel the two LSU stars are somewhat comparable from a talent perspective. Saving bonus money early would allow Pittsburgh to spread those pool dollars elsewhere in the draft. Pittsburgh has applied this strategy in recent years with the 2020 draft (taking Henry Davis 1-1) providing us a decent blueprint for what it could be like. Max Clark could also work here and you can't rule out a dark horse candidate or two popping up over the weekend. But we'll stick with Skenes here. One of the most dominant arms in college baseball history, Skenes' polish and explosive arsenal gives him a chance to provide value in the Pirates rotation as early as next spring. Pittsburgh appears to be turning a corner as an organization and a potential ace with six years of control could jumpstart that turnaround.
#2 Washington Nationals select OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State University
The Player: Crews was a highly-regarded prospect as a Florida prep in 2020, but decided to remove his name from draft consideration to attend LSU. That move paid off in a big way, and he was an All-American as a freshman in 2021 and just as good as a sophomore in 2022. His bat doesn’t have many flaws; he produces elite exit velocities and walk rates with limited strikeouts. There’s a ton of controlled violence in his swing that allows him to get the most out of his 6’1” frame. Likely a corner outfielder at the next level, Crews possesses the arm and range to easily handle left or right field. He is the consensus favorite to go first overall and could move quickly through a system given his track record of success against competitive competition.
The Rationale: While Crews' bonus demands remain a factor here, the likelihood of Crews dropping past #2 seems unlikely, especially with Skenes off the board. The selections of Brady House and Elijah Green in the last two years indicate they are comfortable forking out large bonuses to get their guy. There's been a general feeling that Washington believes Skenes and Crews are in a tier of their own and it would take something extreme happening for them to end up with someone other than those two. You can never rule out chaos, but the Nationals’ connections to Crews and Skenes appear to be real, and passing up on a college bat with Crews' track record and skillset here seems unlikely. With the addition of Crews, a relatively quick rebuild might not be out of the question for the Nationals less than a year after trading franchise cornerstone Juan Soto.
#3 Detroit Tigers select OF Wyatt Langford, University of Florida
The Player: Langford may have missed time with an injury halfway through the year, but what he did in 2023 was nothing short of spectacular. There's plenty of bat speed and power in this profile and there's plenty of confidence that Langford will hit for average moving forward, which is paired with mature plate discipline. Walking more than you strike out in the SEC is a tough task. He's already pretty physical, but don't let the size fool you. Some scouts believe he could man center field at the next level with his speed and defense, though his arm has limited him to left field for now.
The Rationale: The level of certainty at this spot drops a tick, but Langford is firmly entrenched as a top 5 pick and new president of baseball ops. Scott Harris has a proclivity for going the college route. That could separate Langford from the prep outfielders, and it would be hard to blame Detroit for valuing Langford a bit higher after his performance the past two years in the SEC. With Skenes and Crews off the board, Langford to Detroit makes a lot of sense from a skill, organizational tendency, and value perspective. The Tigers desperately need to reinvigorate a shallow system and Langford provides them with a supremely talented bat to build around.
#4 Texas Rangers select OF Maxwell Clark, Franklin HS (IN), committed to Vanderbilt
The Player: Clark is a legitimate five-tool talent. He is an advanced hitter who doesn’t try to do too much at the plate, allowing him to spray the ball all over the field with ease. He has steadily added more game power over the years, leading many scouts to believe he will have plus juice at the big league level. He takes great routes in center field and has registered 60-yard dash times in the low 6.0s, leaving little concern as to whether he will stick at the position long-term. It’s a Pete Crow-Armstrong-type profile with potentially more power and better discipline. Not to mention, he was up to 99 MPH on the mound earlier this spring if something were to go wrong as a position player. He is a high-floor, high-ceiling prospect with great makeup and the potential to go as early as first overall.
The Rationale: The Rangers forfeited their 2nd and 3rd round draft picks for the 2nd consecutive year following the free agent signings of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. This puts Texas in a tricky position because over 75% of their bonus pool is tied to the slot amount for the 4th overall pick. Last year, the Rangers made a shocking yet calculated move taking Kumar Rocker #3 and then using the savings to land Brock Porter in the 4th round. That's certainly a possibility this year, but both Clark and Jenkins are harder to pass up than the players who were available for Texas a year ago. Rumors of Texas going with a prep bat at this spot have been circulating for quite some time. Prep hitters with Clark's polish at the plate are a rarity and the Chris Young-led Rangers have valued those types of hitters in the draft. Jenkins fits that archetype as well, but Clark is a better bet to stick up the middle which gives him the edge here.
#5 Minnesota Twins select OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS (NC), committed to North Carolina
The Player: Jenkins has long been a famous name within scouting circles with legitimate five-tool potential. The UNC commit shows patience at the plate and uses the whole field to hit, as well as having excellent bat speed and hip/shoulder separation, allowing him to tap into his burgeoning power. He's got the speed to play in center field, though as he continues to fill out his frame, it's likely that he moves to right field, where his solid arm and defense will play well. It's hard to envision him falling out of the top five at this point.
The Rationale: With the 4th largest bonus pool and 3 of the top 49 picks, the Twins could decide to get creative with this pick. However, the Twins have a history of selecting hitters with big power and a track record of hitting in games early. The Twins' desire to explore other opportunities with Walker Jenkins sitting in their laps at #5 may abate given that history. There are some health concerns related to Jenkins's hips, but the Twins took Brook Lee last year who also had health-related questions. Jenkins has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order force and receives universal praise for his makeup and work ethic. Jacob Gonzalez and Kyle Teel are possible selections should the Twins go the college route.
#6 Oakland Athletics select SS Jacob Gonzalez, University of Mississippi
The Player: Gonzalez has long been a big name in this draft cycle after lighting the SEC on fire during his freshman year. It's impressive bat-to-ball skills from the left side of the plate and incredible plate discipline, walking more than striking out throughout his entire collegiate career. The swing can get a bit disconnected/handsy at times, but the track record has spoken for itself so far. It's solid average power long-term, too. He'll likely grow out of the shortstop position moving forward, potentially moving to third base, though there's enough here to suggest he could stay long-term.
The Rationale: The A's are typically a hard team to read, but the last pitcher they drafted in the 1st round was AJ Puk back in 2016. At pick 6 the landscape in this mock is filled with college hitters who make sense. You can make a good case for Bradfield, Taylor, Teel, and a few others but we think Oakland is eager to get their hands on a legitimate shortstop. Gonzalez's quirky swing may be a hard 'no' for certain teams, but the fact is he's always performed in the SEC as a lefty-hitting shortstop. Because of how difficult it is to predict what the A's may do, it shouldn't be too much of a shock if they finally went with an arm like Rhett Lowder or a high upside prep like Arjun Nimmala
#7 Cincinnati Reds select RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest University
The Player: The pride of Albemarle, NC, Lowder is one of the best pitchability arms in recent memory and has performed admirably in the ACC the past two years. It's a true three-pitch mix led by a fastball in the low-90s with running life, touching 97 MPH at times. The change-up is his best pitch, a potentially plus pitch with tons of fading action that he sells well in the mid-80s. The slider has shown improvement with two-plane break in the low-80s, as well. He's got great command of his entire arsenal and there's enough there to suggest that he can add more consistent velocity post-draft.
The Rationale: The Lowder to the Reds buzz is gaining some momentum and it doesn't look like he'll be getting past pick #10. The Reds are overflowing with offensive firepower from a young and robust group of hitters. Teams don't draft for need in baseball as they do in football and basketball, but it's also not a completely irrelevant factor. Lowder fits here on talent level alone, so if the Reds feel Lowder and player X are of equal value, the pitching component might tip the scales in Lowder's favor. A starting pitcher who could potentially help the big league roster in a short amount of time is exactly what the Reds need. They've also done a good job developing a diverse contingent of arms in recent years which makes them capable of getting even more out of Lowder than expected. They may be tempted to float one of Clark and Jenkins down to this spot given their history of overslot picks. Kyle Teel is a good fit here, too.
#8 Kansas City Royals select C Kyle Teel, University of Virginia
The Player: Teel has been an impact hitter since he stepped foot on campus at Virginia, slashing .335/.416/.526 during his true freshman season. He has only built on that success this year and will likely be a first-team All-American at season’s end. His skillset is just about everything you want in a catcher. He has high contact rates and rarely strikes out, so he projects him as a plus hitter at the highest level. He’s very athletic behind the plate as well and should have no issue sticking at the position long-term. He has mixed evaluations defensively, but he should be serviceable at the minimum with some giving him average grades. The hit tool as a college catcher is rare in itself, which is the main reason why he will likely go in the top 20 picks of the draft.
The Rationale: The Royals have been pretty diverse in their draft selections, but have had notable trouble developing the high-priced college pitching that they have taken in the late 2010s. It’s hard to see Teel getting past the Royals here, and there’s been plenty of brass to see Teel down the stretch. He follows Nick Loftin and Gavin Cross as the third first-round college bat taken by KC in the last four years.
#9 Colorado Rockies select 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian University
The Player: Taylor has made a name for himself with his hit tool throughout his college career. In his draft year, the contact rates have dropped but he has improved his game in every other way. His quick hands have improved his defense at the hot corner and he is lifting the ball more and hitting for power. It’s a smooth swing from the left side and the frame and athleticism leave room to project more power while the bat-to-ball ability is going nowhere in the long run.
The Rationale: The Rockies have been attached to college pitching, and it wouldn't be a total surprise if they took Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander here. But in lieu of their usual sinker baller type, we think the Rockies take Taylor, a well-rounded offensive player that has enough bat to carry the profile at 3B.
#10 Miami Marlins select 2B Tommy Troy, Stanford University
The Player: Tommy Troy has only improved with every campaign at Stanford, turning in his best campaign in 2023. The Pac-12 batting title winner this spring, Troy has a beautiful right-handed swing at the dish with very good power potential at the next level, grading out as plus. He covers the zone very well and his plate discipline improved drastically. He's a very quick runner on the basepaths and in the dirt, though the arm likely limits him to a second base profile at the professional level. Either which way you chop it up, there's no complaints about a bat-first second baseman with the offensive abilities Troy is capable of having.
The Rationale: The Marlins have targeted bats, particularly from college, in their recent first-round drafting history. Troy is probably the quickest mover of the impact bats at this point, but we wouldn't be surprised to see Chase Davis, Matt Shaw, or Nolan Schanuel get snagged here.
#11 Los Angeles Angels select OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt University
The Player: Enrique Bradfield's game is reminiscent of Billy Hamilton, but with a bit more thump to the toolset. Bradfield is more built for spraying liners to all fields and laying down bunts to terrorize infielders with his speed, but there's some power in the profile that could get better with added muscle. Much like Jacob Gonzalez, he walked more than he struck out in his collegiate career, a testament to his elite eye. A true 80 grade runner, Bradfield knows when to utilize that speed and is an absolute terror on the basepaths. This speed also allows him to cover an insane amount of ground in center field with incredible defensive abilities. It wouldn't be a shock to see Bradfield fly through the minors.
The Rationale: The Angels have targeted players who can reach the big leagues as quickly as possible in the last few years. With two elite tools in his speed and defense coupled with three years of SEC experience, Bradfield Jr. can move quickly and possibly take over the reins in CF for the Halos. Dollander and Waldrep could be options should the Angels target a pitcher. Several of the college bats work at this spot including Troy should he last this long.
#12 Arizona Diamondbacks select SS Colin Houck, Parkview HS (GA), committed to Mississippi State
The Player: Parkview has long been a juggernaut in the Georgia prep ranks and Houck looks to be the next name out of the school. A super athletic infielder, Houck has a quiet load in his swing and explodes through the zone with solid bat speed and super quick hands. He's begun to grow into his power potential, which likely grades out as above-average to plus that play gap-to-gap for now. If anything, Houck profiles as a shortstop long term with excellent range, hands, and a solid arm. There's a ton to dream on here and there's enough to suggest that Houck doesn't make it out of the top 25.
The Rationale: There's been heat to Houck in the 10-16 range throughout May and into the workout phases of the evaluation cycle, with Arizona being one of the teams particularly interested in the Parkview SS. We see them dipping back into the GA prep hitter demographic, a year after selecting Druw Jones 2nd overall.
#13 Chicago Cubs select RHP Chase Dollander, University of Tennessee
The Player: Dollander came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the class, with some going as far as saying he’s the best since Stephen Strasburg. It’s a legit four-plus-pitch mix with all of his offerings grading out as either plus or double plus. The fastball lives in the mid-90s and tops out at 99 MPH. The slider is arguably a 70-grade pitch, inducing tons of sweeping action and missed bats. His curveball and changeup are plus pitches as well. While this evaluation has not changed much, he has mildly regressed compared to his 2022 season. He is slightly more upright in his delivery and throwing his breaking balls and changeup less than he did in 2022, leading to small differences in pitch movements and frequencies causing him to get hit more than he did during his sophomore season. Nonetheless, these are small adjustments that can be fixed by a professional player development staff and the ceiling is still that of an ace for Dollander.
The Rationale: The Cubs have been targeting college pitching early in recent drafts, and Dollander is a strong fit for an organization that has been exemplary in pitching development. We think Chicago believes they can shore up Dollander's mechanics and get the guy that had 1-1 hype heading into 2023.
#14 Boston Red Sox select SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS (FL), committed to Florida State
The Player: Nimmala is a certified freak of nature. Not only is he extremely young for the class (he won't turn 18 until December), he's already proven to be the best prep shortstop in this class with a well-rounded profile. It's premium bat speed with an excellent bat path from the right-side, hitting for both average and power, though breaking balls can be an issue. It's all fields juice, too, and projects as plus/double-plus moving forward. With the uber-projectable nature of his frame, he may wind up getting into all of it. He's expected to stick at the six, as well, given his soft hands, great range, and present arm strength on throws across the diamond. Players like this don't grow on trees.
The Rationale: It's a common gag to insist that the Red Sox are targeting SoCal shortstops given their recent draft history, but it underscores their interest in grabbing prep shortstops in general. Nimmala is one of the tooliest players available in this class, and Boston has shown an aptitude for developing barrel feel in their system.
#15 Chicago White Sox select RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit HS (OR), committed to Oregon
The Player: Meyer's summer was one of the louder ones on the circuit, vaulting his way into first round status and he may be the first prep arm off the board. His fastball has touched triple digits in bullpens, but he usually sits in the 92-96 MPH range in starts with big armside run. The star of the show is his slider, a pure sweeper in the low-mid 80s with hellacious spin numbers. He's introduced a curveball into the mix now, another spin monster with added depth to give him another weapon. The change-up needs more use, though it's now a mid-80s offering with a ton of fading life. He's very projectable and the upside here is immense.
The Rationale: Prep pitching, due to its inherent riskiness, tends to go lighter than we expect on draft day. The White Sox have a hit on their hands with their first-round prep pitcher from last year, Noah Schultz, and tend to spend around slot. Meyer, the top prep pitcher on our board, makes sense on a slot or slightly overslot deal here.
#16 San Francisco Giants select SS Matt Shaw, University of Maryland
The Player: Maryland has not had a bat go in the first round since John McCurdy went 26th overall in 2002, but Shaw looks to end that in 2023. He checks a lot of boxes at the plate, with a smooth right-handed swing with bat-to-ball skills and very good power, all while improving his chase rate. His average exit velocity grades out very high and he's exceeded triple digits multiple times with impressive plate discipline. He's athletic and twitchy in the dirt, though his frame suggests that he's more of a second baseman than a shortstop long term.
The Rationale: The Giants pick at 16, and have a few options in the college bat demographic. We see them taking the guy with the best track record and offensive floor in Matt Shaw, who possesses great barrel feel and has the power and contact skills to carry the offensive profile at 2B. Given the recent 2022 first-round selection of college two-way Reggie Crawford, Virginia prep 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge is also a possibility here.
#17 Baltimore Orioles select RHP Hurston Waldrep, University of Florida
The Player: While Waldrep's transition to the SEC hasn't quite been what he had hoped for, there's no denying how strong his arsenal is. The fastball consistently sits in the mid-90s, getting up to 98 MPH this year, with natural cut and ride. The off-speed stuff is some of the best in the country, led by two sharp breaking balls in a high-80s slider and a low-80s downer curveball. His best pitch is his splitter in the high-80s, which drops off a cliff when he's on. Command is fringy at best and there's plenty of effort in the delivery, leaving relief risk, but there's big upside if a team manages to unlock it.
The Rationale: In recent history, Baltimore has targeted college bats with their first-round picks, so it wouldn't shock us to see FAU 1B Nolan Schanuel or Arizona OF Chase Davis taken here at 17. But the word is that Orioles brass is really in on Hurston Waldrep and his immense arm talent, so we think they get their guy here.
#18 Milwaukee Brewers select 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic University
The Player: Simply put, Schanuel can flat-out hit. He’s been one of the best hitters in all of college baseball this year, currently sporting an OPS of nearly 1.600 and a K% under 7%. He has a great mix of hit ability and power, making him one of the most heralded bats in the draft. He’s an average runner and defender as well, making him more than well suited for the first base position long-term. The bat is what you are buying here, though, and it won’t be long before a team scoops him up in July.
The Rationale: Schanuel is a popular underslot candidate for several teams in the middle of the first round. There are model-friendly elements here including elite batted ball and plate discipline metrics that should be appealing to a bunch of teams in this range. The Brewers are a model-heavy team and their selection of Eric Brown last year shows that they aren't afraid to take a hitter with an unorthodox swing. Jacob Wilson is another quality option for the Brewers in this scenario.
#19 Tampa Bay Rays select OF Chase Davis, University of Arizona
The Player: Davis probably would have been picked in the top two rounds of the 2020 draft out of high school if it weren’t for his strong commitment to Arizona. He’s been known for his tremendous raw power since his prep days, generating elite bat speed with his whippy swing that reminds anyone who watches him of former Rockies’ star Carlos Gonzalez. His plus arm and average defense fit nicely in right field, where he will likely stick long-term. After some strikeout issues in his first two college seasons, he has cut them down significantly in his junior campaign and is currently making a legitimate case to go on Day 1 of the draft.
The Rationale: Tampa has some pool money to play with, so this pick is more about getting the guy that they think won't make it to 31. They do not shy away from bats that don't play up the middle if they offer big offensive upside, and Chase Davis fits that to a T here.
#20 Toronto Blue Jays select SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon University
The Player: Wilson has been a difference maker at Grand Canyon since he stepped foot on campus as a freshman. He truly broke out as a sophomore, where he was one of the best pure hitters in the nation while only striking out an unfathomable seven times in 275 plate appearances. He carried that success into an impressive bout in the Cape Cod league and run with Team USA over the summer as well. Defensively, he has good instincts and range at shortstop with most evaluators believing he will be able to stick there long-term. His exit velocities aren't spectacular, but he has shown enough in-game power potential that should keep that concern to a minimum. He has the upside of an everyday major league leadoff hitter if all goes right.
The Rationale: At #20, the Blue Jays stop the fall for Jacob Wilson. Thomas White could also be a fit here, but Toronto has shown a preference for hit-first college shortstops in the first round recently. Wilson also has MLB bloodlines from 10+ MLB veteran SS father Jack, and the Jays are a team built around young 2nd generation stars like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
#21 St. Louis Cardinals select C Blake Mitchell, Sinton HS (TX), committed to LSU
The Player: High school catchers can be a tough demographic, but Mitchell has all the tools to buck the trend this year. All he's done in 2023 is rake, hitting .474/.701/.842 with an insane 51:8 BB:K ratio. It's great bat-to-ball skills from the left side with present power potential to all fields and solid bat speed. There are some things to iron out with the swing, but you're likely looking at a 55 hit/55 power bat moving forward. He'll likely stick behind the dish with solid defensive abilities and a robust arm, which has been clocked up to 97 MPH on the bump when he pitches.
The Rationale: The Cardinals normally dip into the college pitching demo in this range of the draft, but the options are fairly limited this year. Instead, we have them taking Mitchell who possesses the arm strength and raw power that matches some of their more recent seven-figure prep signings.
#22 Seattle Mariners select 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS (VA), committed to Alabama
The Player: Eldridge has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, period. The 6’7” two-way player is good enough to play professionally on both sides and it is still not clear which way he will focus on long-term. He generally sits in the low-90s with his fastball, ramping it up to the mid-to-upper 90s at his best. He pairs that with a tight, above average slider and average changeup that has the potential to be plus with some refining. He has consistently hit well enough to go in the first couple of rounds, where he possesses plus raw power that could get better as he fills out. It’s a Spencer Jones-type profile at the same stage with potential to be two-way at the highest level if all goes well.
The Rationale: Seattle has a lot of pool money to play with and has demonstrated a desire for prep bats in this class. Eldridge certainly has the talent to be drafted and developed as a two-way, but the bat is what will get him paid by the Mariners here.
#23 Cleveland Guardians select SS Colt Emerson, John Glenn HS (OH), committed to Auburn
The Player: There's a lot to love with Emerson's profile. He has a sweet swing from the left side with bat speed and solid contact, though he's added quite a bit of muscle to his frame and has leaned out considerably. This bodes well for his power potential, which was already sneaky to begin with. It's a larger body for a shortstop, similar to what Colson Montgomery was in 2021, so a move to third base could be in the cards defensively. He's got solid range with a good arm in the dirt. In all likelihood, it's tough to envision seeing Emerson in an Auburn uniform.
The Rationale: Cleveland has a history of cutting deals in the first round, and while we think Colt Emerson isn't going to come cheap, we think Cleveland gets this very talented hitter on a bit of a hometown discount.
#24 Atlanta Braves select LHP Joe Whitman, Kent State University
The Player: Joe Whitman is one of the breakout pitchers this year in college baseball. Not bad for a guy who pitched a combined 5.2 innings over his first two years at Purdue before he transferred to Kent State. Now the 6’5” lefty is hitting 97 with a legit plus slider with good spin data. His changeup is behind his fastball and slider but has the look of a passable third pitch. There is some violence in his delivery though based on early reports and what I saw late it has improved. The reliever risk is there but he seems like a potential high-end reliever if he does not work as a starter. For me, he is the top left-handed college pitcher in this class. The growth potential stands out as Whitman. He basically pitched one year of college baseball.
The Rationale: Atlanta has two types in recent first-round history; vertical pitching, Wake Forest, both. Whitman fits the first category and comes to Atlanta on an underslot deal to give them their desired Day 2 flexibility.
#25 San Diego Padres select RHP Blake Wolters, Mahomet-Seymour HS (IL), committed to Arizona
The Player: Wolters has rocketed up draft boards this spring with a loud performance at Super 60 and has proceeded to improve further during the season. A large, imposing figure on the bump, the fastball has been up to 99 MPH and he's routinely held mid-90s deep into starts with carry and life. The slider has some promise in the low-80s with high spin, though he does lack feel at times. There's a change-up, too, though it's sparsely utilized. An Arizona commit, Wolters likely gets some attention in the the back-end of the first round, though second round is the most likely scenario.
The Rationale: The Padres love first rounds preps, but have very little money to play with. We think they solve this conundrum by nabbing Wolters earlier than expected, who has the stuff and size of past San Diego prep pitching selections.
#26 New York Yankees select SS Sammy Stafura, Walter Panas HS (NY), committed to Clemson
The Player: A breakout performance at Area Codes, coupled with long hours in the gym over the winter, put Stafura at the very top of priority lists for area scouts. His spring debut was highly anticipated by area scouts, and Stafura didn’t disappoint. Stafura looked toned with increased strength, and he was able to do so without sacrificing twitch or speed. With above average bat speed and a compact stroke, Stafura covers the entire zone and is hard to beat with velocity. His strong lower half stays grounded throughout the swing, which enables him to drive the ball with power to all fields. Stafura can occasionally expand the zone against quality secondaries leading to some swing-and-miss, though there was growth in that area this spring. The defensive acumen at SS has always been Stafura’s calling card. He’s a rangy defender who glides on the dirt and makes playing the position look easy. Stafura has an innate ability to be in the right place at the right time, thanks to an excellent internal clock. The glove, hands, and footwork are refined and work smoothly. Stafura’s arm slot can get slingy at times, especially on deeper throws, which causes his plus raw arm strength to play down. Nevertheless, Stafura projects to stick at shortstop long term. Stafura also receives plus marks for his work ethic and intangible qualities, which are reminiscent of a certain AL east shortstop with northeast prep ties. With plus speed, a rapidly developing offensive game, and advanced defensive ability at SS, Stafura’s draft stock has skyrocketed. He’s a lock to be taken on Day 1 of the draft, with the possibility of a late 1st round selection
The Rationale: Stafura has impressed at workouts all across the country in the month of June, but word is that the Yankees are particularly smitten. The Hudson Valley product stays close to home at pick 26.
#27 Philadelphia Phillies select 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest University
The Player: Wilken is a physically imposing hitter with arguably the most raw power in the class– he produces massive exit velocities and leads the nation in home runs over the last three seasons. He also has a very patient approach, having amassed more than 100 walks in that time span. He may be too passive, however, as his fringe-average contact skills don’t afford him the luxury of consistently falling behind early. Plus, he regularly does damage when swinging at the first pitch, and would be wise to do so more often. He isn’t the most mobile defender at third, but he does have soft hands and a plus arm, which should allow him to remain at the hot corner for the time being.
The Rationale: Philadelphia has had a lot of Florida prep pitching flavor in past years, so it was tempting to go with RHP Charlee Soto here. But we think former FL prep bat Wilken is the best player available at 27 and could move quickly through the Phillies system if his prodigious raw power gets into pro games off the bat.
#28 Houston Astros select SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA), committed to Auburn
The Player: McGonigle possesses some of the best pure hit ability in the class. He’s a proven hitter, consistently playing well against high-level competition in nationally ranked tournaments. Though not incredibly tall, he’s still twitchy and is able to turn on the ball with ease. It’s a hit-over-power profile with the potential for average power at the highest level. He’s a good athlete with good instincts in the field, making second base his likely long-term home defensively. The bat is what you are buying here, though, and he is as safe of a bet to hit going forward as any player in the draft.
The Rationale: On hitting talent alone it's hard to see McGonigle making it to the comp round, even if his long-term home is 2B. He shares a lot of offensive similarities to the similarly diminutive Drew Gilbert, the Astros' 1st rounder from 2022.
#29 Seattle Mariners select 3B Aidan Miller, JW Mitchell HS (FL). committed to Arkansas
#30 Seattle Mariners select RHP Brandon Sproat, University of Florida
The Player: Physicality? Check. Stupidly good power? Check. Track record? Final check. Miller is one of the most explosive profiles in this year's prep class with robust power potential from the right side. It's impressive bat speed and a good bat path with an average or better hit tool with plus raw juice, maybe more. The body screams third baseman and that's where most are comfortable with him for now, though a corner outfield spot or even first base aren't out of the cards. If there's anything that's hampered Miller in 2023, it was an early season hamate injury, though he's returned to play. In all likelihood, he'll go higher than his brother Jackson, who was a second round pick in 2020
The Player: A third round pick by the Mets in 2022, Sproat returned to Florida to be their Friday night arm in 2023 and has seen an uptick in his stuff. The fastball has topped triple digits a couple of times this year, routinely sitting in the mid-90's with heavy running life and misses a few bats. His best secondary is his change-up, which features hard diving action in the high-80's that hitters struggle to hit. There's a gyro slider in a similar velocity band as the change-up and a low-80's curveball that he'll use to steal strikes, as well. In all likelihood, the effort in the delivery and inconsistent command relegate him to a relief role moving forward, but it could be a fun relief option.
The Rationale(s): It's hard to see Miller getting past Seattle at 30, who have the money to get him and want high-level prep hitting in this class. Sproat fits in as an underslot companion pick, a college pitcher from the Southeastern US (the last three Mariners pitching selections fit this bill) that has elevated his stock during the Gators’ trip to Omaha.
#31 Tampa Bay Rays select SS Tai Peete, Trinity Christian HS (GA), committed to Georgia Tech
The Player: Peete is an incredible physical specimen with first round athletic ability, and has all the tools of a future MLB shortstop if the forearm that shut down his 2022 summer is healthy. However, there are lots of questions about the quality of the hit tool, and he fared poorly at the plate against high level competition. With that said, the shortstop from Sharpsburg has impressed teams during workouts, and could be off the board as early as the comp round.
The Rationale: There's been heat to Peete with the Rays for quite some time now, and he checks the physical and athlete boxes that few other available prep shortstops can check. We don't see him getting past Neander and Co., though toolsy prep outfielder Dillon Head is another player who could fit at this pick.
#32 New York Mets select SS George Lombard, Gulliver Prep (FL), committed to Vanderbilt
The Player: Lombard has been one of the biggest risers in this prep class, establishing himself as one of the best infield prospects in this cycle. It's a sweet swing from the right side with burgeoning power and an already impressive hit tool. There's present bat speed with loft to his swing and he'll utilize the whole field to hit. Not to mention, he's an above-average runner. While he has the frame that suggests he'd move to third base, his arm leaves a bit to be desired, so a move to second base seems more in the cards at this moment in time. With the way he's climbed up boards, it's hard to see this profile making it to Nashville.
The Rationale: The Mets are in an interesting position--they don't have their first-round pick but still have a decent amount of pool money thanks to a handful of 3rd and 4th round compensatory picks. Their proclivity for 1st round prep bats still makes sense at #32, and the highly projectable and sweet-swinging Lombard is the best of that bunch.
#33 Milwaukee Brewers select SS Brice Matthews, University of Nebraska
The Player: Matthews is the type of player that data-driven evaluators love. He has some of the best batted ball data in college baseball and has hit the cover off the ball this season. The former quarterback is a twitchy athlete with elite athleticism who has no problem handling high-level pitching. There is some significant swing and miss in his game, but that has improved significantly since last season and is truly the only factor preventing him from being a first round pick.
The Rationale: Milwaukee has shown a willingness to take college bats, regardless of size or competition level, if they hit the ball hard and hit the ball often. Nebraska SS Brice Matthews fits that bill, and the model-friendly Cornhusker slots in at 33.
#34 Minnesota Twins select LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (MA), committed to Vanderbilt
The Player: White is one of top prep arms in the nation as well as the top left-handed pitcher in the entire draft. A cold weather arm, his lack of presence on the travel circuits and strength of schedule has caused evaluators to use more projection than usual. He leads with a mid 90’s fastball that touches 96-97 at times and follows with a curveball and a change-up. The curve is his go-to secondary with two plane movement but the changeup flashes better potential.
The Rationale: One thing we noticed as this mock unfolded was the fall of Thomas White after Noble Meyer and two-way player Bryce Eldridge were taken at 16 and 19 respectively. We think that the Twins have the capital to get White on an overslot here and add a 2nd headline player for their 2023 draft class.
#35 Miami Marlins select RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian Academy (FL), committed to UCF
The Player: Soto's meteoric rise to the first round is impressive. A former shortstop that grew off the position, Soto has gained plenty of velocity on the bump, now sitting in the mid-90's and has gotten up to 98 MPH with the heater, though reports have suggested that the shape needs improvement. The slider has improved from what it was in 2022, adding more depth and some sweep in the mid-80's, though it's his change-up that is his bread and butter. He can mix between a splitter and circle-change grip in the high-80's with devastating tumble to both lefties and righties alike. He's extremely young for the class and has the potential for average or better command.
The Rationale: Similar to White, Charlee Soto had a fall into the comp round in this mock. While there is additional pitch design development needed for Soto in pro ball, we think the local Miami Marlins are equipped to unlock improved fastball shape and help him reach his #2-3 starter ceiling.
#36 Los Angeles Dodgers select OF Jonny Farmelo, Westfield HS (VA), committed to Virginia
The Player: The power and speed combination that Farmelo possesses gives him plenty of promise at the next level. It's an explosive profile in the outfield, with big power potential and loud exit velocities throughout his prep career. There's a track record of hitting, too. What separates Farmelo from his peers is his elite speed, terrorizing the basepaths and giving him ample opportunities to succeed in center field long term. There's plenty of athleticism in his profile, as well. In all likelihood, this is a profile that will get drafted in the second round.
The Rationale: At 36, we see the Dodgers snagging a prep hitter with some swing concerns but also very loud physical tools. A true center fielder, Farmelo has plus raw power, speed, and arm strength, and could blossom into an impact bat with the Dodgers' superb hitting development. Another prep bat who meets a lot of these criteria (and could unlock defensive value with a move to the outfield) is Missouri prep INF/OF Nazzan Zanetello.
#37 Detroit Tigers select 3B Yohandy Morales, University of Miami
The Player: Morales is an athletic, big-bodied third baseman with an impressive power profile both at the plate and in the field. He has a long swing – which used to be even longer – but exceptional hand speed, and while he doesn’t come with major swing-and-miss concerns, he does miss barrels too often. When he does make hard contact, he tends to pound the ball into the ground or hit it on a line. There is double-plus raw power there, but he will need to lift the ball more in order to tap into that potential. Morales is surprisingly agile at the hot corner, with the ability to track down ground balls and showcase his plus arm strength while throwing on the run.
The Rationale: We see #37 as the floor for Morales, who provides strong defense at 3B with tantalizing raw power. Detroit has some long-term fits around the infield dirt, but 3B is definitely a spot where the Tigers could move Morales quickly through their system.
#38 Cincinnati Reds select 1B/C Raffaele Velasquez, Huntington Beach (CA), committed to Arizona State
The Player: Velazquez has dominated the California prep ranks and while the class has been a bit weaker this year there is no denying his place. He projects more of a 1B long term but the bat is legit 60 game power and even higher raw. He has a simple swing that generates strength from his lower half and allows him to hit for contact and power to all fields. He rarely expands the zone making him a tough out. The body is pretty physically mature for his age which limits projection.
The Rationale: There's been heat to the Reds not allowing Velasquez to get past pick 38, and the talented left-handed SoCal slugger projects to have enough offensive value to move off catching in pro ball. 2022 1st rounder Sal Stewart is somewhat of an analog here--a powerful offensive force that the Reds valued highly for his offense, despite having concerns about a long-term defensive home.
#39 Oakland Athletics select SS Walker Martin, Eaton HS (CO), committed to Arkansas
The Player: A super athletic, tooled up infielder with burgeoning power and excellent bat-to-ball skills? Yup, that's Walker Martin. Martin burst onto the scene with a robust summer circuit last year and continued to excel this spring, boasting a .639/.707/1.666 slash line with nineteen bombs. It's excellent feel for the barrel from the left side of the plate with impressive bat speed and he's already starting to get into his above-average power potential, with his projectable frame suggesting there's more coming. There's enough to suggest that he stays in the dirt moving forward with his athleticism, range, arm, and average speed. While he's older for the class, it's tough to envision this bat making it to Fayetteville.
The Rationale: With the A's going the high-floor college bat route at #6, we expect some money to be available to grab one of the comp round high school bats. Martin fits the bill here, and we think Oakland makes a good enough offer to keep him from making it to Fayetteville.
