Scouting is a never-ending process. Year after year, there’s rarely a break for anyone in the industry, including us. So, what exactly goes into our process and how do we decide on ranking placement? That’s the goal of this new comparison series, Deep(er) Drives, which is a continuation of the Deep Drives article series from this spring.
We’ll be bringing a plethora of content to the table over the coming months in this series, slowly evolving into the 2024 class as we make that transition over the summer. Today, we dive into the ACC, where five primary third basemen could all come off the board in the first two rounds this coming weekend. Wake Forest’s Brock Wilken, Miami’s Yohandy Morales, Virginia’s Jake Gelof, North Carolina’s Mac Horvath, and NC State’s LuJames “Gino” Groover. They all provide a different skill set, so let’s take a look at how they stack up tool-by-tool, where they fit defensively, and how they project at the next level.
Swing mechanics
You couldn’t dream up a more ideal slugger than the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Wilken. He’s physically imposing, but maintains fairly simple mechanics, allowing his hand speed and natural strength to do the work. With long arms, he’s susceptible to pitches on the inner third, but when he’s able to extend his arms, he does immense damage. Morales has an extra-large frame with an incredibly strong build and plenty of athleticism. He has a long, vicious swing with some moving parts, but his lower half stays quiet and he often makes up for it with exceptional hand speed.
Horvath filled out his medium frame over the last two years, with a strong build and an efficient, compact swing that lend themselves to quality contact to all parts of the field. He utilizes a small leg kick and keeps his hands very quiet, allowing the ball to travel and using his bat speed to catch up to it– although his bat path can be a bit rigid. Groover has a fairly large frame and a strong build, with a short, compact swing out of a crouched stance. There’s no wasted motion, and his bat control allows him to foul pitches off until he gets something he likes. Gelof has lots of strength and impressive bat speed, but the swing is a bit long and the leg kick is substantial. He has a tendency to be over-aggressive, often over-committing his lower half and having to make last-second adjustments while unbalanced.
Hit
Groover sits head and shoulders above the pack in terms of pure hitting ability. He boasts elite bat-to-ball skills, and even though he does chase, he has the ability to make contact out of the zone. Horvath, on the other hand, almost never chases, but he does come with some swing-and-miss in the zone. Wilken is among the most patient hitters in the country, rarely chasing but consistently falling behind in the count. He has a good eye and typically sits fastball, but struggles to make contact when he does swing at breaking stuff.
On the other side of the spectrum are Morales and Gelof, who are free swingers. Morales often chases out of the zone and rarely makes contact with breaking stuff– although there seemed to be some improvements down the stretch this season. Gelof is more susceptible to fastballs up, and his contact rate against high-velocity heaters is not great.
Verdict
Groover- 60
Wilken- 50
Horvath- 50
Gelof- 45
Morales- 45
Power
The conversation starts with Brock Wilken, but this is a powerful group. Wilken has double-plus
raw power – likely the most in the entire draft class – with the ability to use the whole field.
Morales has the edge over Gelof and Horvath in terms of pure size and strength, and just about no one in the country hits the ball as reliably hard as the Miami third baseman. Gelof has one of the highest 90th percentile exit velocities but doesn’t reach that number regularly, while Horvath makes more consistent hard contact but doesn’t have the same top-end power. Wilken, Horvath, and Gelof were the top three, respectively, in fly ball rate among ACC hitters this past season. Morales, meanwhile, could benefit from hitting the ball in the air more frequently. Groover hasn’t shown much in terms of in-game power, but with his frame, there could be above-average pop in the tank, which would provide 20-homer potential given how often he makes quality contact.
Verdict
Wilken- 70
Morales- 60
Gelof- 60
Horvath- 55
Groover- 50
Run
Horvath headlines this group, as his 46 stolen bases over the last two seasons are second in the ACC, behind only teammate Vance Honeycutt. Unlike Honeycutt, he’s not necessarily a burner, but he has above-average speed and is a gutsy, efficient baserunner. Morales is a unique athlete who moves well for his size, with the ability to swipe the occasional bag. At the very least, he makes pitchers and fielders alike think about his presence. The same cannot be said for the other three guys– none of whom will ever have anything resembling even an average run tool. Gelof can be described as a “fine” athlete, while Groover is a considerably poor runner. Wilken, meanwhile, is just a massive human who was never destined to be a runner.
Verdict
Horvath- 55
Morales- 45
Gelof- 40
Groover- 30
Wilken- 30
Field
None of the five are a lock to stay at third, though most of them are capable of handling the position.
Horvath played a decent amount of outfield down the stretch this season – largely due to necessity – and he was understandably raw, struggling to adequately camp under the ball and play it off the wall. On the dirt, he has good instincts and swallows up ground balls with soft hands, using a quick transfer to get rid of the ball efficiently. His speed and athleticism provide him with some versatility.
Morales is surprisingly agile at the hot corner, with the ability to leap for liners over his head and chase after ground balls in different directions. He may outgrow the position if he loses a step or two, but for now, he grades out as a solid defender.
Gelof is very capable at third, with good hands, a quick transfer, and a strong, accurate arm. He doesn’t have much side-to-side quickness, however, and may fit better at first or an outfield corner.
Wilken, unsurprisingly, isn’t the most mobile defender at third. He has soft hands and solid instincts but he doesn’t have enough range for the left side. Although he wasn’t a liability in college, he is likely to make his way across the diamond at some point in pro ball, with some risk of even being a full-time DH.
Groover is the least likely to hold down a full-time third base role at the next level. He tried his hand at the position this year at NC State after primarily playing first with Charlotte, and the results were underwhelming, at best. He has quick, reliable hands but doesn’t move well side-to-side to get to balls not hit directly to him. There’s legitimate 1B/DH concern here, which puts a ton of pressure on his bat.
Verdict
Horvath- 55
Morales- 50
Gelof- 45
Wilken- 40
Groover- 40
Arm
Wilken has some serious carry to his throws, which helps negate some of his limited range by allowing him to play a step deeper. He’s not the smoothest throwing on the run – his accuracy is merely average – but he has the effortless strength to get the ball across the field in a hurry. If he does somehow stick at the hot corner, it will be due to his arm being a legitimate weapon. Morales gets a lot behind his throws, with the ability to fire the ball across the field from deep down the line and while throwing on the run. He does have a tendency, though, to throw wildly when rushing and trying to rely too heavily on his pure arm strength.
Capable of making throws from down the line and on the run, Gelof’s arm strength is apparent. Accuracy lags just a bit behind, but it’s far from concerning. Even if he moves off third, the arm could absolutely play in either outfield corner. Horvath has above-average arm strength, with the ability to throw on the run and from different angles, but he did go through some spells of accuracy issues this past year– from both the infield and outfield. Groover has fringy arm strength, with shortened arm action leading to inaccuracy. His arm could probably fit on the right side of the infield or in left field, but certainly not at third.
Verdict
Wilken- 60
Morales- 55
Gelof- 55
Horvath- 55
Groover- 45
Summary
Wilken has an incredible combination of patience and power but comes with plenty of flaws. Right-handed 1B/DH types don’t have a great track record in recent years – top picks Spencer Torkelson and Andrew Vaughn have yet to live up to expectations – but that won’t stop some teams from taking a chance on Wilken’s bat in Round 1.
Draft Projection: Late Round 1
Prospect Live Ranking: 27
Harris’ Ranking: 24
Morales’ massive upside is currently capped by his poor plate discipline and long swing, but it’s certainly there. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, and any team that thinks he can stick at third could pull the trigger in the first round.
Draft Projection: Competitive Balance Round A
Prospect Live Ranking: 29
Harris’ Ranking: 29
Horvath may end up in the outfield, but he should be a plus defender at third, were he to stay on the dirt. His power/speed combination is very intriguing, and most of his contact is quality. Improved bat-to-ball skills could make him a potential steal in the second or third round– though he is the oldest of the group and will turn 22 just after the draft.
Draft Projection: Late Round 2
Prospect Live Ranking: 60
Harris’ Ranking: 40
Gelof is a prototypical corner bat with an enticing power profile. Swing-and-miss concerns can’t be ignored and he may not have the upside of some of these other guys, but his two above-average-or-better tools will get him drafted early.
Draft Projection: Mid Round 2
Prospect Live Ranking: 74
Harris’ Ranking: 45
Groover is the least toolsy of the bunch, but he has the highest likelihood of hitting at the next level. With developing power, he could be very dangerous at the plate. Teams will, however, have to consider where he fits on the defensive spectrum before drafting him.
Draft Projection: Mid Round 2
Prospect Live Ranking: 42
Harris’ Ranking: 48