With this weekend's MLB Draft quickly approaching every fanbase wants to know who their favorite team is going to select. I can’t in good conscience speak in absolutes regarding who each singular player might be. What I can do is build an MLB Draft Simulator and use the probabilities to find out what players land at specific spots most often. So, that’s what I did.
I ran the simulator a total of 25 times. For picks 1-39, I’ll name the 3 players who were selected at that pick most often. This should illuminate exactly who fans should look for their team to select during Round 1. This doesn’t mean these will be the exact three guys they pick from. Chaos is the only certainty in the MLB Draft. Simply keep an eye on these players in these ranges.
Round 1:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Dylan Crews, LSU, OF
Paul Skenes, LSU, P
Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF
Chalk. All signs point to these three players being the pool being picked in this spot. Barring a Wyatt Langford surprise, these are your guys.
2. Washington Nationals
Paul Skenes, LSU, P
Wyatt Langford, Florida, OF
Dylan Crews, LSU, OF
More chalk. Nothing groundbreaking here. Nats’ find themselves with the player that doesn’t get selected 1st.
3. Detroit Tigers
Wyatt Langford, Florida, OF
Paul Skenes, LSU, P
Dylan Crews, LSU, OF
More of the same. Although they are at the mercy of the other two teams, the Tigers likely walk away with one of the top three players in the class.
4. Texas Rangers
Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF
Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF
Wyatt Langford, Wyatt Langford, OF
Which prep - Clark vs. Jenkins? Does a premier college player fall?
5. Minnesota Twins
Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, P
Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF
Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P
The first true wild card. Our sim likes the Twins taking a pitcher or a prep.
6. Oakland Athletics
Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF
Kyle Teel, Virginia, C
Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P
Middle-of-the-diamond premier players. Athletes and high-upside arms.
7. Cincinnati Reds
Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS
Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P
Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS
More middle-of-the-diamond Reds’ prospects? More up-and-coming arms to the stable?
8. Kansas City Royals
Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS
Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, P
Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C
The rebuild continues. High upside and toolsy preps.
9. Colorado Rockies
Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS
Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C
Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P
A healthy mix. Plenty of places to supplement within the organization. College bat, prep bat, prep pitcher.
10. Miami Marlins
Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF
Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF
Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P
The prep stopgap. Unlikely either high ends prep gets to this spot but even more unlikely they bypass Miami.
11. Los Angeles Angels
Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P
Kyle Teel, Virginia, C
Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS
Feels like a team that catches the premier talent that falls to them. Meyer, Teel, and Nimmala all figure to go earlier but Angels would love any of them.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks
Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt, OF
Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B
Tommy Troy, Stanford, SS/3B
Impact college players to supplement a rising core of young stars.
13. Chicago Cubs
Tommy Troy, Stanford, SS/3B
Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS
Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS
Premier athletes in the middle of the diamond. Don’t be surprised if a college arm pops up either.
14. Boston Red Sox
Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS
Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P
Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P
A classic Red Sox move. The California high school shortstop. Only this time he went to Ole Miss for three years. Or more high-octane arms to a system that could use some.
15. Chicago White Sox
Chase Davis, Arizona, OF
Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B
Walker Martin, Eaton, SS
Another wild card. Tons of ways they could go.
16. San Francisco Giants
Colin Houck, Parkview, SS
Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P
Walker Martin, Eaton, SS
High upside prep players. While sticking with the theme of potential two-way players.
17. Baltimore Orioles
Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS
George Lombrad Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS
Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian, P
A multitude of routes the Orioles can go here. The simulator likes up-the-middle types plus prep arms.
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Walker Martin, Eaton, SS
Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B
George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS
Impact infielders and athletes.
19. Tampa Bay Rays
Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P
Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS
Walker Martin, Eaton, SS
One of the teams who truly loves the chaos of the draft. Could see them go a ton of directions.
20. Toronto Blue Jays
Brice Matthews, Nebraska, 3B/2B
Thomas White, Phillips Academy, P
Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF
Some new names that we haven’t seen yet. While potentially continuing a tradition of Florida amateurs.
21. St. Louis Cardinals
Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C
Tommy Troy, Stanford, 3B/SS
Colin Houck, Parkview, SS
The high makeup player. Bucks the trend of first round arms in this case.
22. Seattle Mariners
Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B
Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B
Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P
The beginning of the Mariners’ draft of chaos. 3 picks in the top 30. They can mold this in any way they want.
23. Cleveland Guardians
Chase Davis, Arizona, OF
Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P
Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner, 2B
Premier athletes and moldable arms. It’s what the Guardians do.
24. Atlanta Braves
Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P
Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt, OF
Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF
Prep arm or some guys who could fly through a system to aid one of the best cores in baseball.
25. San Diego Padres
Colin Houck, Parkview, SS
Walker Martin, Eaton, SS
Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner, 2B
Preller doing Preller things. Prep, Prep, Prep.
26. New York Yankees
Matt Shaw, Maryland, 2B/3B
Ross Cholowsky, Hamilton, SS
Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B
College hitters who have had massive success. And even a couple from the east coast.
27. Philadelphia Phillies
Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian, P
Cam Johnson, IMG Academy, P
Cade Kuehler, Campbell, P
They love their prep arms. They’ve been successful before, that doesn’t change here.
28. Houston Astros
Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF
Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B
Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS
High-impact college bats who aren’t far away. Or another Astros middle infielder adding power as we speak.
PPP & Competitive Balance & Comp Rounds
29. Seattle Mariners
Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken, P
Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B
Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF
30. Seattle Mariners
Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P
Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B
Ross Cholowsky, Hamilton, SS
31. Tampa Bay Rays
Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B
Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B
Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS
32. New York Mets
Thomas White, Phillips Academy, P
Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B
Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B
Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B
Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF
34. Minnesota Twins
Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS
George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS
Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor, OF
35. Miami Marlins
Jackson Baumeister, FSU, P
Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS
LuJames Groover III, NC State, IF
36. Los Angeles Dodgers
Eric Bitonti, Aquinas, SS
Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor, OF
Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF
37. Detroit Tigers
Brice Matthews, Nebraska, 2B/3B
Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B
Travis Honeyman, Boston College, OF
38. Cincinnati Reds
Cade Kuehler, Campbell, P
Kendall George, Atascocita, OF
Tanner Witt, Texas, P
39. Oakland Athletics
Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS
Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech, OF
LuJames Groover III, NC State, IF
This was simply a fun exercise to put our simulator to use and give it a little more time in the sun before Sunday rolls around and the real thing takes off. Fans want to know who they should be eyeing up for their team to grab and this piece aids in that process. And that isn’t an excuse to hit up Prospects Live on socials if the player your team selects isn’t found within the three players for that pick. As I mentioned, the only sure thing on Sunday is that chaos will ensue.
If you want to try the simulator for yourself, you can click right here.
If you want to learn more about any of the potential players, right here.
Make sure to follow all of Prospects Live’s coverage over the next week as we cover all 20 rounds and beyond!