Draft Day Scenarios - Cincinnati Reds

As part of a new series accompanying the launch of the Prospects Live Mock Draft Machine, I’ll be highlighting draft day scenarios for a number of teams. What better way to use or new tool then put it to work before July 9th rolls around. To see where to start, I took to Twitter to see what team(s) the readers wanted to see me dive into.

The readers spoke and it felt apropos that the first team I saw mentioned was the much-discussed Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to a strong, young core of players like Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Hunter Greene, and of course Elly De La Cruz; it appears the buzz around the Redlegs is only intensifying. If you sensed a theme in the names I mentioned regarding the core of the team, you were right. The middle of the infield looks to be crowded for a long, long time. Cruz, India, McLain, Steer, Arroyo, Collier, and Marte are all names who should take the majority of playing time in the middle of the diamond for the foreseeable future.

Could those influence draft day decisions this coming July? We know teams don’t typically draft for Major League positional needs, but in a draft with strong frontline college pitching and stout prep outfielders; you have to wonder if the Cincy decision-makers sense a window creaking open and look to seize the opportunity. No matter what avenue they choose, the picks at hand offer plenty of intrigue.

Let’s set the scene on what the Reds have in this draft, specifically the first five rounds:

Picks:

• 7th overall ($6,275,200)

• 38th overall ($2,255,100)

• 43rd overall ($1,998,200)

• 74th overall ($975,100)

• 105th overall ($640,300)

• 141st overall ($451,100)

Overall, the Reds have the sixth-highest available bonus pool in the league, totaling $13,785,200. So what would likely scenarios be?

Scenario #1

In this simulation, things end up working out on the chalky side. The top five players on the Prospects Live Draft Board get selected in succession to each other, while the Oakland Athletics serve as a bit of a wildcard. Being in a situation where it looks as if they are a few years from playing competitive baseball, they aim for a high-upside, middle-of-the-diamond player in Arjun Nimmala. This allows the Reds to have their choice of the litter in regard to players like Dollander, Lowder, Teel, Meyer, Gonzalez, and Wilson. 

As you can see, acting as the decision maker here, I chose Kyle Teel and paid him the full slot value. Teel is one of the premier college bats in this class, a pure athlete who gets high marks behind the plate. Some even say he plays catcher like a shortstop, which points towards a profile that stays behind the dish. Beyond that, you’re simply buying a high-level bat.  A .418/.484/.673 slash line should tell you all you need to know. 

Later in the draft, we are able to catch one of the prep shortstops as Adrian Santana finds his way down to pick No. 38. Feels as if with the amount of high-level prep SS in this class that one is bound to slip just a touch. We’re able to reign in Santana Jr. at just over slot value. 

With our third selection, we are able to snag a potential frontline starter in Brandon Sproat. The stuff certainly suggests frontline, however, tweaks to the overall profile are needed. The organizational pitching infrastructure in place offers us to trust that the staff can make adjustments with Sproat and turn this into a great pick. The same can be said for Nick Maldonado who we snagged at pick No. 105 after selecting an extra high-upside prep middle infielder in Trent Caraway at 73 because you can never have enough of those. Jake Cunningham rounds out our five picks to offer just a touch of slot relief, but it’s certainly no throwaway. Cunningham possesses tools that are off the charts, putting it all together will be the test. If it clicks, we’re talking big leaguer.

Scenario #2

In this simulation, we catch a falling Max Clark. This is certainly not an outlandish happening. There's a real chance with the chaos of the MLB Draft that one of Jenkins or Clark finds their way to pick No. 7. For as long as this draft class has been talked about, Clark has been tabbed as one of, if not the best talent in the whole class. It’s an otherworldly high school stat line that includes a batting average in the .600s. Clark is more than a basher, it’s tools across the board. Speed, defense, plate discipline - Clark does it all well. Getting this type of upside at a position of need, at this type of value feels like a no-brainer for the Reds. We do have to pay a touch over-slot to make it happen but Clark feels worth it. 

We find a similar profile with Colton Ledbetter at Pick No. 38. However, Ledbetter comes from the college ranks and may not have the sky-high ceiling of Clark -  the profile is semi-reminiscent. Tanner Witt at pick No. 43 follows a similar path to that of Sproat and Maldonado from Scenario 1. Witt lacks the typical track record thanks to missing a large portion of 2023 due to injury but it’s a bet on the traits and pitching development infrastructure. 

Wolters is a prep arm who has a major helium attached to his name right now. Up to 98 MPH, the big-bodied righty is gaining serious steam. If we’re lucky enough to see Wolters fall this far, we likely have to pay up to keep him from honoring his commitment to Arizona. We make it happen and go over-slot for Wolters but bring it back down to earth with the succeeding picks in Carson Roccaforte and Marcus Brown. A couple of guys who have seen major success at high-level college programs. Roccaforte falls in line with the Ledbetter profile and Brown is reminiscent of Trey Faltine, a fellow shortstop and Reds’ selection from 2022.

Conclusion

With the excitement level rising at the major league level, the opportunity within the 2023 Draft should offer just as much excitement for Cincinnati fans. Largely because this draft class is abnormally stout in its’ top fifty prospects. Just so happens the Reds hold three picks in the top 43. It’s an advantageous situation for a team looking to supplement an already young core. Flexibility is paramount in the chaos-filled MLB Draft. Reds’ brass will have plenty of that. 

Who do you think the Reds should target at No. 7?

Deep Drives: Charlotte Bats and MTSU Arms

Deep Drives is back after a well-deserved break!

We’re playing a little bit of catch-up after a quick turnaround to the ACC Tournament, but I managed to take a quick trip down to Charlotte to get a look at some mid-major draft talent. Charlotte has an intriguing pair of bats, as well as a Friday night arm that is a lock to be a Day 2 selection in July, while Middle Tennessee State has a duo on the mound that could both go in the top five rounds. We’ll keep this one shorter than most, mainly because we’ve got plenty of ACC Tournament content on the way!

RHP Wyatt Hudepohl, Charlotte

Line: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 10 K (100 Pitches)

A former Kentucky bullpen piece, Hudepohl sought an extended role in the transfer portal, landing in a place that’s been known for pitching development the past few years under coach Robert Woodard. Well, I’d say it’s been a beneficial relationship for both sides thus far, as Hudepohl has cemented himself as one of the best mid-major arms in this class.

What stood out pretty quickly was the level of pitchability that Hudepohl possesses. He came out of the gate very strong with two perfect innings, pitching backwards off his curveball and change-up constantly. However, once the rain began to fall harder, his command began to slip away in the third inning and he wound up giving up a home run on a hanging curve. After that? He wouldn’t allow another hit until the seventh inning. The fastball does have some carrying life, though the velocity isn’t quite there, routinely sitting in the 90-93 MPH range throughout the start. While there isn’t much separation velocity-wise to the change-up, there’s deception in Hudepohl’s delivery that makes it tough for hitters to pick up. It’s pretty firm in the high-80s, but he’s able to keep the pitch down in the zone. The curveball is his best pitch, throwing it hard in the low-to-mid 80s with serious intent and downward bite, racking up plenty of empty swings throughout Middle Tennessee’s order.

.@CharlotteBSB's Wyatt Hudepohl came out of the gate strong tonight. FB 91-93 with carry, but really showing off the CB and CH thus far. CB in low-80's with a ton of depth and CH fades very late in high-80's with command. 5 K's thru 3 so far. pic.twitter.com/nPPDPHdzMK

— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 18, 2023

If I had to be a guessing man, Hudepohl’s future is likely in relief, which would allow his stuff to excel, though there are enough starting traits here to trot him out in a rotation at the next level. He’s able to hold his velocity rather well, though the frame suggests that there is not much projection remaining as he’s already quite bulky. That said, there are not too many warts in his delivery, as there’s not a ton of effort on the bump with an over-the-top slot. He’ll find himself a home somewhere on Day 2 and whichever team takes him will get a solid mold of clay to work with.

OF Cam Fisher, Charlotte

Line: 3-7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think there’s a hotter bat in the country than Cam Fisher, a former Ole Miss product that’s become a mainstay in Charlotte’s outfield.

The first thing that stands out to you when seeing Fisher is his physicality. He’s listed at 6’2”, 210 pounds, and has plenty of muscle in that frame. His stance is rather upright, similar to what Brock Wilken employs, which does make me wonder how well he’ll handle better off-speed pitches at the next level. But if there’s one thing you can’t underestimate in his profile, it’s his plus power. There’s a ton of bat speed and he generates a ton of power from the ground thanks to his bulky lower half, and he showed just that in the nightcap on Thursday. He got a fastball middle-middle and proceeded to unleash violence on the baseball, hammering it over the scoreboard in RCF and hitting the farthest ball that ballpark has seen. It would land 478 feet away and left the bat at 112 MPH, and it also gave Charlotte the lead for good. It’s a sweet swing, see it for yourself:

Leaving a pitch middle-middle to Cam Fisher isn't a good idea.

Fisher gives @CharlotteBSB the lead with a monster shot way over the scoreboard in RF, landing 478 feet away. Just sit back and enjoy this swing. pic.twitter.com/XiFbDWEdZG

— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 19, 2023

He’s turned in a solid defensive year in the outfield, as well. He’s not the greatest runner and his route-running could use some work, but he projects to be in left field, maybe right field if there are stark improvements. This is a profile that can ultimately crack the top 100 when all is said and done, though. It’s an offensive threat with serious power, as well as a seriously good eye, though the aforementioned contact issues are prevalent. He’s a big reason why Charlotte won the conference tournament and as a result, he’ll get to play the Tennessee Volunteers in Clemson, a team that Fisher grew up with in Knoxville.

OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte

Line: 1-6, 3 BB, 4 K

A three-year star at Charlotte, Cunningham excelled in a breakout 2022 campaign. While his 2023 numbers aren’t as great as they were last year, there’s a ton to like about his profile.

For starters, he’s one of the youngest college prospects in this class, as he won’t turn 21 until a week before the draft. He’s a tall, lanky athlete with room to add muscle to his frame at 6’4”, 205 pounds, though he moves rather well for a guy his size. At the plate, he did struggle in the two games I managed to see, only tallying one hit before hitting a home run in the final game of the series. He’s got a solid eye, but it felt as if he was being passive at times, allowing Middle Tennessee pitchers to attack deeper into counts. He also does have some trouble with breaking balls, though I do think a team can work out that kink. While his speed hasn’t shown on the basepaths like last year, he’s still an excellent runner, consistently having plus or better run times out of the box. His speed will allow him to stay in center field long term, where he’s got solid range and defense already. The power potential is intriguing, given the projectability of his frame and the already present juice, which plays mostly to his pull side, but he has shown an ability to go the other way with his power.

If anything, Cunningham feels like a guy who can go in the top 150 picks in July. The mix of projection, offensive potential, and center field defense will give teams solid clay to work with as he continues to develop. If a team believes they can shore up the discipline and improve contact, he may move through the minors relatively quickly.

RHP Eriq swan, Middle Tennessee State

Line: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 4 K (83 Pitches)

It’s pretty tough to come across an effortless delivery, but when you’re able to throw triple digits without breaking a sweat, scouts take notice. Eriq Swan is that prospect.

I overheard a scout during his start say, “That’s a 7 body with a 7 fastball.” I could not have said it better myself. Swan is built like a string bean, showcasing classic projection and easy motions on the bump. If there’s any sort of complaint to be made about his delivery, it’s mainly because he doesn’t utilize his lower half much, but even then, it’s loud stuff coming out of his hand. The fastball got up to 101 MPH, consistently sitting in the 97-100 MPH range throughout his start with plenty of life, though command and strike-throwing are a concern. His slider is his best secondary, showcasing sharp bite and sweep in the 82-85 MPH range that he can backfoot to lefties when he’s on. There’s a change-up in the low-90s that’s relatively firm, but he sells it well with solid arm speed. He did lose feel of the pitch at times, however. He’d end up walking six total batters, including three in a lengthy first inning. It feels like his arm plays catch up with his shoulder during his arm swing, which creates his inconsistent command.

Eriq Swan's night is done after four innings. Very loose arm with easy delivery, FB jumps out of the hand at 97-100 T101 with heavy life. Flashed CH in low-90's with late diving action and SL at 82-85 with late sweep. However, command was not great. pic.twitter.com/O70qrHpox8

— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 18, 2023

If there’s a team who believes that they can fix the inconsistencies in his delivery and command, Swan projects as a fast-moving reliever with the capability to close in some capacity down the line. It’s a mix of loud stuff and projectability that scouts love, and I do believe Swan fits somewhere in the top five rounds in July. It’s a work in progress, but the right organizational fit will do wonders for him.

RHP Jaden Hamm, Middle Tennessee State

Line: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (86 Pitches)

Yes, that final line is not great. That’ll be the first thing that catches your eye in this segment. However, despite the lackluster start, Hamm is a very solid pitcher from a draft standpoint and there are some intriguing qualities to build on for scouts.

Back at Charlotte tonight for @MT_Baseball's Jaden Hamm. Worked around a single in the first, FB 91-95 with plenty of carry from OTT slot. CB 80-81 with a ton of depth and late sweep, flashing mid-80's CH w/ some tumble. Hides ball really well in delivery. #129 on our Top 400. pic.twitter.com/BJ9gBwcSgI

— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 19, 2023

The delivery is unique and unorthodox, as he holds a big hip hinge down the mound and has solid arm speed from an over-the-top slot with some deception. He started off rather well, working around a single in the first with a couple of strikeouts, though as the outing went on, his command and stuff began to back up and Charlotte took advantage as a result. The fastball got up to 95 MPH early, routinely sitting 91-94 MPH with carrying life at the top of the zone and some cut. His signature pitch is his curveball, a potential hammer of a breaking ball in the high-70s/low-80s featuring a ton of depth. It’s similar to what Justin Campbell had with Oklahoma State in terms of a FB/CB combination with close to 35 inches of vertical separation, which is rather insane. He rounded out his arsenal with a decent change-up, though he did not have the greatest feel for the pitch during his outing.

Much like Swan, there’s stuff to iron out here, but I’d imagine someone like the Dodgers or Rays would love to have him in their development program. He’ll stick as a starter presently, though should the change-up not progress moving forward, I can see a pretty explosive FB/CB pairing playing very well in the bullpen. He should be someone who gives in either rounds four or five.