Scouting is a never-ending process. Year after year, there’s rarely a break for anyone in the industry, including us. So, what exactly goes into our process and how do we decide on ranking placement? That’s the goal of this new comparison series, Deep(er) Drives, which is a continuation of the Deep Drives article series from this spring.
We’ll be bringing a plethora of content to the table over the coming months in this series, slowly evolving into the 2024 class as we make that transition over the summer. Starting the series are a pair of highly touted prep righties in Oregon’s Noble Meyer and Florida’s Charlee Soto. Both have had meteoric rises in their respective ways. Meyer solidified his status with a strong showing throughout the summer circuit in 2022 and Soto went from growing off the shortstop position to being one of the hardest throwers in the prep ranks.
Throughout researching these two players and grabbing thoughts from within the industry, the gap between the two, in my eyes, began to grow. With that said, both project as first-rounders in this class. We’ll break down their pitches and mechanics, and give final thoughts on their profiles and how they project at the next level.
Mechanics/body/command
One of the first things that evaluators get a look at is the frame of the player they’re getting a look at, as well as their mechanics. Both Meyer and Soto have pretty sound mechanics on the bump, but there are some distinct differences to break down from film.
With Meyer, he fits the “projectable prep arm” demographic to a tee. The Oregon commit has a long, lanky frame with a high waist and very long levers. What stands out with Meyer is the ease of his delivery, as it looks like he’s playing catch in-game with little to no effort shown and a lightning-fast arm. He’s able to repeat his delivery well thanks to his athletic nature, too. As he moves down the mound, he exhibits really good hip/shoulder separation and gets good use of his lower half, though if there’s one thing that could use some fixing, it’s his arm stroke. It gets lengthy as he works his way to the three-quarters slot he utilizes and those with longer arm strokes do have trouble getting their arm on time with their foot plant. With that said, there’s a ton to dream about with the frame and delivery.
Soto does have a bit more bulk to his frame than Meyer, mostly in his lower half. His upper body does have some room to add a bit more muscle and he has the same kind of high waist, long levers, and athleticism that Meyer has. The big difference comes in the arm stroke, where Soto has a more compact and shortened action. This allows him to hide the ball well behind his body before releasing it from a higher three-quarters arm slot, plus he’s able to get his arm more on time and he has similar arm speed. However, when speaking to a source from the NL, they mentioned some effort in Soto’s delivery, most notably at release. It’s nothing too egregious on film, but it’s definitely noticeable when compared side-by-side with Meyer.
When it comes to command, both pitchers are expected to have average or better command of their arsenals moving forward. Both Meyer and Soto are able to consistently command the ball east-to-west across the zone, rarely missing their spots. Meyer likes to throw down and inside to righties and pitch low and away with his breaking balls, whereas Soto will try and beat you inside with his fastball/change-up combination.
fastballs
Meyer FB Grade: 60
Soto FB Grade: 55
As I got deeper into the research and evaluation for this piece, the fastballs these arms possess had one striking resemblance to my eye, similar fastball shapes. But why do I have a 60 for Meyer and a 55 for Soto if they have similar shapes? Let me explain.
Despite pretty similar shapes, they’ve had different results. And yes, results do matter when it comes to evaluating, or at least that’s how I look at it in my evaluations.
Meyer’s velocity uptick came at a perfect time during the PDP League in Cary, NC last summer. What was 91-94 MPH in his three-inning start early in the week became 95-98 MPH in a one-inning relief appearance a couple of days later and he’s been able to consistently get to that velocity ever since. He’s able to hold 92-96 MPH regularly throughout his outings, touching 97-98 MPH when he needs it. What helps the pitch play better despite the two-seam shape is his lower release point, which helps him generate the lively run he has. One anonymous Scouting Director did note that he also has some utility up in the zone, which leads to some hitters swinging underneath. In all likelihood, it’ll be tough to add any sort of significant carry to the pitch given the nature of his release, but ultimately, there’s a margin for error to work with here, and gives me more confidence to stick with the plus grade.
Soto, on the other hand, doesn’t quite have the same story. A former shortstop that found a home on the mound, Soto’s velocity uptick was rather quick and robust. He wasn’t stretched out a ton last summer, but he’s been able to hold consistent 93-97 MPH velocity throughout the spring, and while the velocity itself is impressive, he’s not quite had the same results. One source mentioned that his fastball was getting barreled up this spring and he’s not been able to get consistent carry up in the zone. What stands out on film is the higher release point that Soto has, as well as the steeper plane to the plate. He’s more downhill than Meyer and while he’s able to pump strikes at the knees, he struggles to miss bats. He may ultimately end up needing a sinker as a result, though at the end of the day, if a pitching development program is able to alter the pitch shape for success, Soto has a decent shot to get to a plus grade.
CC: Ian Smith (@FlaSmitty)
Time will ultimately tell the tale here, but luckily for both arms, they’ve got the off-speed arsenals to lean back on if the fastball ever becomes an issue.
breaking balls
Meyer SL Grade: 60/CB Grade: 55
Soto SL Grade: 55
This is where you begin to see a big difference in their profiles and stock.
Meyer’s innate ability to spin the ball is what makes him stand out from his peers. He’s got two distinct breaking balls, but between the two, the slider is, and has been, the best pitch in his arsenal. Metrically, it’s one of the more impressive sliders in the class. It will sit in the 82-87 MPH range with spin hovering around the 3,000 RPM mark, as well as possessing the shape of a pure sweeper. There’s little to no vertical break at times and he’s gotten fifteen inches of sweep or better, which makes it the perfect weapon to get chases and whiffs low and away from righties. He can pitch backwards off of it and land it for strikes, plus there’s a bit of a tunneling element off the fastball. It’s a legitimate plus pitch at the next level.
This spring, Meyer introduced a curveball that has given him some added depth in his arsenal. It’s got similar spin rates and still possesses a sweeping component to it, though it has solid bite and vertical depth to it. He used it often later in his outing against Calvary Christian during the NHSI tournament, attacking with the same gameplan as the slider, attacking low and away to righties, as well as stealing strikes early in counts. It’ll sit in the 75-80 MPH range and, just like the slider, can garner some empty swings. It’s more of an above-average offering presently, but finding a prep arm with two above-average or better breaking balls is tough to find.
Soto’s slider does lag behind slightly in comparison to Meyer’s, but that’s not to say it isn’t impressive in its own right. He’s made considerable improvements with the pitch, enough to where he’s been able to bump the pitch up a grade. The spin rates are closer to average, as he’ll sit around the 2,300-2,400 RPM range (ML average is 2,430-2,550 RPMs). Last summer, the pitch played more like a bullet slider, thrown hard in the mid-80s and stayed short to the plate, but this spring, there’s been added depth and a bit more horizontal movement. There’s solid bite and the two-plane tilt that he now has gives him a comfortably above-average offering.
CC: Cayden Hatcher (@C_Hatcher_PBR)/PBR Draft HQ (@PBR_DraftHQ)
Change-ups
Meyer CH Grade: 50 (flashes 55)
Soto CH Grade: 60
While Meyer has Soto beat in the breaking ball department, Soto can be crowned the winner with the change-up.
Soto’s change-up is one of the best pitches in this year’s prep class. He has plenty of confidence in throwing the pitch to both sides of the plate and he’ll do his best to beat righties low and inside, while he’s able to command it very well away from lefties. It has tunneling traits with his fastball and he’s able to match arm speed, which makes it tough for hitters to detect out of the hand. He throws it in the mid-80s, getting into the upper-80s, and the pitch seemingly dies as it gets to the plate, showcasing hard tumble and parachute fade. He did vary shapes on the summer circuit, so there’s a good likelihood that he utilizes both a circle-change and splitter grip. All in all, it’s a devastating pitch.
CC: Ian Smith (@FlaSmitty)
Multiple sources have noted that Meyer doesn’t utilize his change-up enough, but there’s enough to project the pitch as being average or better with more usage. Last summer, it was more of an upper-80s pitch that featured two-seam run, but at NHSI, he showed better velocity separation and more tumbling life away from lefties. Now, it’s more of a mid-80s offering that features higher spin rates for a change-up (ML average is 1,750 RPMs) that has been primarily utilized against lefties. He’ll need to show more usage and better feel/command, but there’s enough there to say that it could end up being a potential above-average pitch if developed properly.
Final thoughts
In all, there’s little doubt that both of these arms can be first-rounders. Meyer’s mix of deception, athleticism, and loud stuff that has performed puts him on top in this comparison, and I would not be shocked to see Meyer get taken in the top ten in a couple of weeks. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me to see Meyer’s ceiling start with the Reds pick at #7. He has legitimate front-of-the-rotation potential.
Soto’s knocks are obvious, but having one of the best change-ups in recent memory from a prep arm, as well as an improving slider, gives him solid potential. Plus, he’ll be one of the youngest prospects in the class, as he won’t be turning 18 until the end of August. Certain models do tend to be enamored with younger guys. Soto’s range should start around picks 20-25 and it’s tough for me to see him sliding past the competitive balance round. His ceiling is that of a mid-rotation arm.