After much delay, the Fringe College Five (FC5) is ready to roll with less than 30 days until the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the clock. For those who are unfamiliar with what the FC5 is all about and what it seeks to accomplish, I highly suggest briefly looking at my primer from a few weeks ago. The idea is pretty simple; I want to search for and highlight college players who are not included on Prospect Live’s current draft board.
I also talked about how it was my intention to write in a way that I felt was more representative of the “real me.” I think I did a pretty good job of that here. This article gives should give everyone an idea of what my “style” looks like. Some people may not enjoy this style, and that’s totally OK. I would love to hear all of your feedback, whether it’s positive or negative because it’s one of the best ways for me to grow as a writer and an evaluator. Since writing this way is new to me, it’s important to learn what works and what doesn’t work.
One final thing before we dive into the meat of the article. In the primer that I mentioned earlier, I talked about some of the things I was going through in my personal life. I’m happy to say that most of those challenges are behind me, but part of moving forward is encountering new challenges. It has taken me some time to figure out how to navigate and work through those challenges. In the past, I would beat myself up for these perceived failures, but now I know that there are steps to success. Thank you, Giannis. With that taken care of, it’s time to get fringy!
Here are the criteria for Fringe College Five inclusion:
Must be eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft
Must play at the NCAA Division 1 Level
Cannot be included on the current Prospects Live Draft Board
1. Alberto Rios, OF, 167 BAGS+
School: Stanford University
B/T: Right / Right ; H/W: 5’11-200
Year/Draft Age: Junior / 21.04
Good things come to those who wait; Alberto Rios is living proof of that. Talking about and highlighting players like Rios is why I love working on this article series. Breakouts aren’t entirely rare since “popup” bats appear in every draft class. But I can’t think of a recent college hitter that has made such a sudden and significant impact the way Rios has this spring. The FC5 exists with players like Rios in mind. Rios rode the pine his first two years at Stanford with only seven plate appearances and zero hits during that span. During that time, Rios switched positions twice to fill the needs of the Stanford roster. Rios was originally a shortstop who converted to catcher (he was the primary bullpen catcher in ‘22), and he’s now Stanford’s starting left fielder (Rios has also played seven games at catcher), a position that he never played before. His routes and reads are understandably raw, but he has the potential to be a solid-average defender with more experience. The defensive outlook is fine, but it’s the production with the bat that has put him squarely into the 2023 draft conversation. There's no other way to describe Rios' season besides explosive. As of 6/18, Rios is rocking a .381/.484/.703 batting line that includes 18 homers and nearly as many walks (38) as strikeouts (41). Rios made demolishing PAC-12 pitching routine, with 12 of his 18 dongs coming against conference opponents. You could argue that Rios has been the team's best hitter this year in a Stanford lineup filled to the brim with pro talents like Tommy Troy (#14), Braden Montgomery, and Malcolm Moore.
The Pac-12 player of the year is small in stature but has a strong and stout build. The swing mechanics are compact, with the barrel of the bat quickly entering and leaving the zone. His taut strength and plus bat speed give Rios remarkable power for someone of his size, especially with a stroke that often appears geared for line drives. The batted ball data supports what we are witnessing on the field. Rios ranks highly in average exit velocity (EV), 90th percentile EV (an excellent indicator for in-game power), and barrel rate. His chase rate has hovered around the 90th percentile mark among college bats most of the year. While you'd like to see a contact rate slightly above 80% instead of slightly below it, he's maintained that level of contact against spin, changeups, and good velocity. Projecting Rios in the pros is a challenge, given his limited track record and his frequent position changes. A right/right left fielder isn’t the sexiest profile, so we could see a team get creative with how he’s deployed as a pro.
We saw two similar scenarios play out during last year's draft cycle. Trey Lipscomb became a star third baseman for Tennessee after receiving limited action the prior three years. And Rios’ teammate Brett Barrera became a major cog in Stanford’s 2022 lineup after accumulating less than 100 plate appearances in his two years prior. The Nationals drafted Lipscomb in the 3rd round, and the Yankees took Barrera in round 8. You can make the case that Rios has a realistic chance of being selected in between where Lipscomb/Barrera went (rounds 4-7). Being a Stanford commit, bonus demands could certainly factor into what stage of the draft Rios is selected. We often see higher-ranked college players taken early on day 3 (usually rounds 11-13) as teams use rounds 7-10 to manage their bonus pool.
2. TJ Fondtain, LHP/OF, 120 DIGS+
School: San Diego State University
H/W: 6’4-215
Year/Draft Age: 4th-year Junior / 22.04
Every pitcher that made the FC5 last year was a righty, most of whom threw gas with the kind of arsenal and command typical for a pro reliever. I’m a man who values opportunity, so I’m compelled to go in a completely different direction with the first arm in this year’s series. Enter TJ Fondtain. A college lefty that touches 92 MPH on his best days? Perfect fit. Fondtain isn’t a high-profile prospect in amateur baseball circles, but college baseball fans may recognize the name because he did something pretty special this spring:
Fondtain’s fourteen-strikeout no-no was the first no-hitter for the Aztec baseball program since some guy named Stephen Strasburg tossed one back in 2009. This wasn’t a Tim Lincecum variety no-hitter. Fondtain retired 24 straight Nevada hitters and was just three outs away from a perfect game before allowing his only baserunner of the game on a walk to open the 9th. It wasn’t a single-game outlier as Fondtain’s 2.82 ERA (nearly an entire run ahead of 2nd place) earned him the Mountain West ERA crown, and he also had a conference-best 19.9 K-BB%. Unsurprisingly, Fondtain was 1st team All-Mountain West and dubbed the MWC pitcher of the year.
Fondtain is a big, strong lefty with a pro body, and his success as a two-way player (9 HR, .879 OPS) is evidence of his athletic ability. There are some similarities between Fondtain’s delivery and college baseball’s most famous two-way star Jac Caglianone, especially with how each southpaw releases the ball. Fondtain’s arm doesn’t have the looseness or speed of Caglianone, few pitchers do, but he keeps the arm circle short, hiding the ball throughout the process, and does a good keeping his arm action and release point consistent. Fondtain works from a high ¾ slot, with a bit of crossfire to his delivery and minimal effort as the ball leaves the hand. Fondtain is a two-pitch pitcher who throws his 87-91 MPH fastball and 75-77 MPH changeup 90% of the time. What the fastball lacks in velocity, it makes up for in movement. Fondtain’s fastball averages 20 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and over 12 inches of arm-side run (horizontal break/HB). Few lefties in the majors throw 4-seam fastballs with IVB and HB in the double digits where their IVB is greater than their HB. Sometimes that can trigger the “dead zone fastball” alarms, meaning the pitch is unlikely to generate either weak contact or whiffs. But with an IVB of 20 inches (the MLB average is about 16-17 inches), Fondtain’s fastball avoids flattening out as it reaches the plate. While none of these lefties are perfect comparisons (avert your eyes, comp haters), Matt Strahm, Chasen Shreve, Jeffrey Springs, and Keegan Akin have similarly bustling 4-seamers. Fondtain generates an above-average amount of chases and whiffs on his fastball, with a sizable portion of them coming on either fastballs above the zone or to his arm side against righties. His fastball command is much better to his arm side, but he’s far from incapable of spotting to both sides of the plate.
There is a potential complication at play here. Because Fondtain’s 4-seam fastball usage exceeds 70% and the movement profile is so unique, Trackman may be combining two different pitch types and labeling them as 4-seam fastballs. Even if that is true with Fondtain, I still believe he’s worth including here.
Fondtain’s changeup is his most frequent secondary, and the relationship that forms between the change and the heater can be overpowering. It’s been called the Zendaya-Tom Holland pairing of the college baseball world. I may have made that up. Honestly, I don’t even know who Tom Holland is, but Brady/Giselle and Will Smith/Jada were my go-to celebrity couples, so this felt like a good time to try something new. Moving on, Fondtain throws the changeup with fastball arm speed more times than not, and he can achieve double-digit velocity separation. He’ll parachute the changeup below the zone for chases and whiffs, but he’s also becoming adept and painting the edges. Fondtain has pitched deep into games this spring without needing to deviate from his fastball-changeup pairing. He’s used each to generate high rates of weak fly ball contact and above-average swing-and-miss totals. The slider and curveball are both lackluster. After looking at the usage rates and watching him use each on video, it’s clear that Fondtain lacks confidence in either pitch. Many of them become non-competitive offerings that don’t serve a purpose. Because the slider and curve weren’t dependable, it’s not surprising that Fondtain stuck to what worked. The slider might have some potential, though it’s a slurve, but whatever team ends up drafting Fondtain will have a lot of work to do.
And that’s what has drawn me towards Fondtain this spring. Development potential. Sure, he’s “old” for the college class, but age is just a number! And look, I know that when we say “age is just a number” to “olds” or a significant other, it’s almost never sincere. But I swear it’s different this time. This is the rare scenario where you can use that tired adage without crossing your fingers. You look at his past, and you see that his 2020 season was canceled, that he didn’t pitch at all in 2021, and for the past two years, he was tasked with being an integral piece in both the lineup and weekend rotation. Indeed, he didn’t face the best competition D1 baseball has to offer, but the MWC is well-known for its hitter-friendly environments. The conference rarely exceeds half a dozen qualified pitchers (~16 IP) with a RA/9 below 4.00 in a season. Fondtain was one of only three pitchers to stay below that mark in 2023. Fondtain’s size, physicality, and athleticism are ideal, and college lefties who are fastball/changeup heavy are a tried and true profile on draft day. The fastball velocity will need to tick up, but given the movement and ease of operation, there appear to be several directions that a pro development team can experiment with to maximize Fondtain’s fastball and arsenal as a whole. Fondtain may be more of a project than an ordinary 22-year-old college lefty, but there’s seemingly more room to grow. Because of that, it’s hard for me to project his future role or where he ends up being drafted. A day-three selection makes sense, and with some luck, you could end up with a pitcher who resembles Jordan Wicks but at a fraction of the cost.
3. Nick Lorusso, 3B, 144 BAGS+
School: University of Maryland
B/T: Right / Right ; H/W: 6’2-215
Year/Draft Age: 5th-year Senior / 22.10
You may have noticed that college hitters are launching dongs at an incredible rate this spring. JJ Cooper at Baseball America wrote an excellent article that examined this phenomenon. Several things are at play causing this power surge, but a big one is the growing quantity of 22-24 year olds competing in D1 ball. One obvious culprit for the increase in older college players was the added year of eligibility that players received (a no-brainer decision) following the cancellation of the 2020 season. Hitters who are more experienced and physically mature can make harder contact and hit the ball farther, especially when digging in against 18–20-year-olds. To put that age gap into perspective, the average age for a hitter at High-A in the minors is between 22-23 years old, while the average age for a pitcher in rookie ball is roughly 20-21 years old. What do you think would happen if High-A hitters faced rookie ball pitchers all year?
There’s a term that the draft team at Prospects Live uses when referring to such players. “Old Man Strength”. Here’s a very real and totally not fake example:
Recca: “Hey Tyler, did you see the right fielder for [insert school] hit a 108 EV home run last night? Looks like a pretty interesting bat!”
Tyler: “Ya, I saw it and decided to look him up afterward. This is his 6th year playing college baseball, and he’s already 24 years old. I think Will is familiar with him.”
Will: “He has a 27% K rate right now, chases like crazy, and he can’t handle good velocity. Looks like another example of old man EVs powered by old man strength.”
After the season Nick Lorusso just had, there’s no question that he possesses enough “Old Man Strength” to earn the moniker. Lorusso also displays “pure hitting ability” and “hitterish” traits that make him distinct from the other power goons scattered across college baseball, which is why I felt comfortable adding him to the FC5. It’s also true that Lorusso’s old man strength and my fondness for all things Ralph Macchio tipped the scales in Lorusso’s favor for FC5 inclusion.
2023 was Lorusso’s 5th year at the D1 level, and he’ll be turning 23 years old two months after the draft. He transferred to Maryland for the 2022 season after spending 2019-2021 at Villanova as a two-way player. Lorusso produced immediately for the Terrapins, and he carried that production all the way to the bitter end with four hits in Maryland’s final two games, two of which were home runs against future first-round pick Rhett Lowder (#12). Lorusso broke Maryland’s single-season home run (26) and RBI record (105) this year, and he was the first D1 hitter to eclipse 100 RBI in a season since 2003. His final line was a ridiculous .379/.446/.765 this spring, and over his two-year career as a Terp, Lorusso slashed .351/.427/.665. Lorusso’s batted ball data tells a similar story. Prior to regionals, Lorusso’s average exit velocity and barrel rate (our “version” differs slightly from Statcast) were in the top 8% among all D1 hitters. He maintained a contact rate slightly above 80%, and while the chase rate doesn’t strengthen his offensive profile, it’s also not a glaring weakness. Overall, Lorusso stacks up offensively with the “best of the best” that college baseball has to offer.
Lorusso is physically mature with a robust and durable build. He doesn’t have incredible strength, but because he’s such an intelligent hitter, Lorusso puts all of his 55-grade power on display by making quick adjustments during plate appearances and getting into positive counts. Lorusso is a hitter who creates his own luck. He knows who he is as a hitter, and because of that, he can put himself in situations where he can succeed. The swing is simple and low-maintenance, with a bit of a leg kick that he can time well. It’s a swing that should work against solid velocity and spin at the next level. The team that ends up drafting Lorusso will likely feel comfortable pushing him to AA during his first full minor league season, given his experience and overall offensive profile. Moving Lorusso quickly through the minors is likely to be a point of emphasis. Besides being a member of the “Old Man Strength” gang, Lorusso’s athleticism is fringy at best. Older college hitters with questionable athleticism often have a small window to provide value at the MLB level. The development clock is ticking *stomps floor* real fast, so any obstacles climbing up the pro ladder (injuries, adjustments, etc.) can significantly impact that player’s career trajectory. Lorusso isn’t a lock to stay at third base long-term, even with the requisite arm strength and glove. His role defensively is going to depend on how he ages physically. A J.D Davis type of defensive player is a possibility.
Age, athleticism, and defense will likely push Lorusso closer toward the later rounds on day two of the draft. However, several things are working in Lorusso’s favor. He’s shown solid offensive tools across the board, his success against top arms is well-documented at this point, the data is highly impressive, and he has two years’ worth of elite production included on his resume. Guys who check those boxes are hard to come by, which helps separate Lorusso from the rest of the “senior signs” and “bonus savers” in the 2023 draft class. That could mean an under-slot selection for Lorusso as early as the 4th or 5th round, which is something we’ve seen teams do in recent years. A David Freese or Ty France kind of career path could emerge if things break the right way for Lorusso in pro ball.
4. Scott Bandura, OF, 114 BAGS+
School: Princeton University
B/T: Left / Right ; H/W: 6’4-180
For those of you that follow me on Twitter, you may recall a few tweets this spring where I highlighted Bandura as a name to know for the draft. For those of you that don’t follow me on Twitter, I’m not mad; I’m just disappointed. Follower counts aside, Bandura was an unexpected but welcome discovery for me this spring. I had never heard of Bandura before seeing him live in mid-April, but he left a lasting impression, to say the least.
Bandura was on the periphery of some major national attention back in 2014. He played catcher for the Taney Dragons, a little league team that reached the LLWS with Mo’Ne Davis leading the way on the mound. Davis and Bandura were battery mates as Jimmy Fallon took some wiffleball hacks against Davis on the ‘Tonight Show, ’ the final pitch plunking Fallon in the side. I’m sure plenty of people can’t get enough of Jimmy Fallon in their life. Personally, I like to pretend that twelve-year-old Scott Bandura called for the beaning as a means of retaliation for all the SNL skits Fallon nearly ruined over the years. Someone had to do it.
I’m borderline shocked that it took until late May/early June for Bandura’s name to appear anywhere in public draft conversations: no rankings, no reports, and no videos. Bandura flies under the radar partly because he’s a hitter in the Ivy, a conference that has seen only two hitters selected in the top ten rounds this decade. But an even larger factor has been Bandura’s lack of playing time at the college level. Bandura’s freshman year was wiped out when the Ivy League canceled the 2021 season. He entered the 2022 season as Princeton’s right fielder and #3 hitter; however, a hamstring injury limited him to eight games. Bandura got some needed reps over the summer, but ultimately, he entered his third year at Princeton with only 30 plate appearances in the books.
It’s not like you can hide Bandura once he’s on the field. At 6’4-180, Bandura looks the part with great length and projection to the frame combined with loose, athletic actions. He’s currently on the skinny side but far from weak. Bandura slugged 12 homers this spring, had an ISO over .300, and both his average EV and 90th percentile EV were among the top ten percent in college baseball. And because his frame is so projectable, it’s likely that we’re only beginning to scratch the surface of Bandura’s power potential. He gets natural loft in the swing with plenty of bat speed, allowing him to hit power to all fields. You combine that with borderline plus speed and a strong arm, and you suddenly have the makings of a tooled-up, right-field profile at the next level. Bandura hasn’t encountered any issues with making contact, and he’s flashed an impressive, mature approach for a hitter of his experience level. Most of his damage comes against fastballs, and though he hasn’t seen a ton of high-end velocity (92-93+), Bandura’s contact rate on quality velocity is above 80%, which is a promising sign for his professional future. There are times when his swing gets long, and because of the loft in his swing, this can create issues when faced with velocity at the top of the zone. But when Bandura gets off his best swings, he can impact fastballs in all four quadrants and looks comfortable doing so. Bandura will need to improve how he handles the soft stuff. Bandura’s contact rate on secondaries is solid, but he doesn’t look entirely comfortable when facing pitchers with both velocity and quality secondaries. While that is an area of concern, it’s important to remember that Bandura has seen far fewer quality breaking balls/offspeed pitches than your average college junior. As Bandura embarks on his pro career, he’ll quickly gain that experience, and he’s already shown the ability to make significant developmental strides in a short amount of time.
I have a feeling Bandura’s name will be more prominent on public draft boards in the coming weeks. His huge performance (3 HR in 4 games) during the Ivy League Tournament probably got industry folks talking. The physical tools, measurables, and in-game performance all suggest that Bandura is a much better draft prospect than many college outfielders that have been mainstays on rankings and boards across the industry. The profile projects well in a strong side platoon role or as a 4th outfielder with a lefty stick that can do a bit of everything. But given his unique background, you can’t rule out a scenario where Bandura exceeds those projections. Even though he hasn’t gotten the attention he deserves, I believe we’ll hear Bandura’s name called in the 5th or 6th round this July.
Final Fringe
5. Logan Van Treeck, LHP, 134 DIGS+
School: Lipscomb University
H/W: 6’4-215
Year/Draft Age: 4th-year Junior / 22.06
The ‘Final Fringe’ spot is reserved territory for the most bonafide oddballs in the 2023 draft class. One-tool wonders, funky pitchers, peculiar backgrounds, physical outliers. . . you get the idea. These are college players who are difficult to value and rank.
At some point this spring, I began referring to Lipscomb as “The Island of Misfit Arms” because of their penchant for untraditional pitchers. 2022 FcF member Trey Nordmann was part of that archetype. Watch any Lipscomb game, and you are all but guaranteed to come across further examples. You only need to see Logan Van Treeck fling a handful of pitches to understand what I’m talking about. He works exclusively out of the stretch with a funky delivery incorporating a high front side, a low ¾ release slot, and a crossfire finish. The arm path is a bit long and can get “stabby” in the back, but he repeats the arm action well and stays on time. Van Treeck hides the ball exceptionally well; as you’d expect, the deception enhances his arsenal. This delivery has extraneous movements that require precise timing to keep things synced. Because timing is crucial for pitchers with unorthodox mechanics, an arm like Van Treeck often experiences command and strike-throwing issues. Remarkably, that hasn’t been the case for Van Treeck. In fact, Van Treeck’s 4.0 BB% this spring put him inside the top 20 (min. 50 IP) at the D1 level. He was one of the best in college baseball at limiting free passes in 2023, a massive improvement compared to his 2022 season (20.0 BB%) and college career (16.2 BB%). The Atlantic Sun Pitcher of the Year had a strike % in the top 3% of college baseball on both his fastball and slider. This sudden transformation from wild lefty to elite strike thrower is highly unusual. Add in the fact that the guy in question looks like a malfunctioning slingshot when he pitches, and it all becomes genuinely mind-boggling.
Van Treeck’s pitch mix has changed gradually throughout the season. For the better part of the spring, Van Treeck had a four-pitch mix (4-seamer, sinker, slider, curveball). The 4-seamer was the primary fastball, and Van Treeck went to the slider 3-4 times more often than the curveball. As the spring progressed, Van Treeck modified his arsenal, using the sinker more and the 4-seamer less, increasing his curveball usage, and mixing in the sparse changeup. Over his last several starts, Van Treeck threw his secondaries 40% of the time, showing an impressive ability to throw strikes with all of them, especially with the two breaking balls. This is important because neither the 4-seam nor the sinker has an ideal shape presently. Van Treeck’s fastball velocity sits in the low 90s, showing the ability to reach back for 94s when needed, with a max fastball velocity around 95-96 MPH. Both fastballs rely on the deception from his delivery and locating successfully. The 4-seamer can ambush hitters when thrown above or at the top of the strike zone. Both the 4-seamer and sinker tend to flatten out in the zone. When Van Treeck finds himself in scenarios where he needs to throw a fastball inside the strike zone, he’s in danger of giving up hard contact. This becomes a bigger problem when you factor in his heavy flyball tendencies.
Being able to throw other pitches besides his fastball when he needs a strike will be imperative moving forward. At times, the sinker can operate as a weak contact inducer. This might explain why Van Treeck used the sinker more as the season continued. During his last few outings, I saw Van Treeck use the changeup primarily as a chase pitch below the zone. There’s good velocity separation between the fastball and changeup, and the cambio flashes arm-side fade. It probably grades out at below average presently, but there appears to be solid early-stage feel. The slider and curve shape can occasionally blend together. I think Van Treeck’s sweeping slider (upper 70s/low 80s) is his best overall pitch, with his confidence and command of the slider pushing it toward that above-average/plus line. Some of his sliders will get slurvy, which is when it starts to look similar to his slow curveball (72-75). He steals a ton of strikes with the curve, especially on the first pitch of at-bats, and I like how Van Treeck backdoors the curve to righties. No individual pitch will “wow” you, but each offering serves a purpose. The sinker and changeup are pitches that I could see blossoming in the pros under the right conditions.
Van Treeck strikes out Clemson star Cam Cannarella twice during regionals
I have trouble picturing professional teams truly buying into Van Treeck as a starter, even with the command, pitch arsenal, and positive results working in his favor. His fastball velocity did take a slight dip later in the year, but he still looked solid after 80+ innings this spring. After not starting the season in the weekend rotation, Van Treeck had no issue working deep into games, going 7+ innings during six of his ten starts. It’s a puzzling profile, and I find myself saying, “It’s definitely unique, but is it good?” when considering Van Treeck. He seems like a good dude, and there’s no question about how much work he put in to get to this point. He’s already 22, possibly putting Van Treeck in that “bonus saver” bucket of pitchers that get taken late on day 2 of the draft. We know how much teams like to gamble on pitchers with outlier characteristics, making Van Treeck an attractive day two target. Van Treeck will almost certainly get an opportunity to start as a pro, but he profiles as a left-on-left focused reliever in the mold of someone like Brooks Raley.