Draft Day Scenarios - Cincinnati Reds

As part of a new series accompanying the launch of the Prospects Live Mock Draft Machine, I’ll be highlighting draft day scenarios for a number of teams. What better way to use or new tool then put it to work before July 9th rolls around. To see where to start, I took to Twitter to see what team(s) the readers wanted to see me dive into.

The readers spoke and it felt apropos that the first team I saw mentioned was the much-discussed Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to a strong, young core of players like Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Hunter Greene, and of course Elly De La Cruz; it appears the buzz around the Redlegs is only intensifying. If you sensed a theme in the names I mentioned regarding the core of the team, you were right. The middle of the infield looks to be crowded for a long, long time. Cruz, India, McLain, Steer, Arroyo, Collier, and Marte are all names who should take the majority of playing time in the middle of the diamond for the foreseeable future.

Could those influence draft day decisions this coming July? We know teams don’t typically draft for Major League positional needs, but in a draft with strong frontline college pitching and stout prep outfielders; you have to wonder if the Cincy decision-makers sense a window creaking open and look to seize the opportunity. No matter what avenue they choose, the picks at hand offer plenty of intrigue.

Let’s set the scene on what the Reds have in this draft, specifically the first five rounds:

Picks:

• 7th overall ($6,275,200)

• 38th overall ($2,255,100)

• 43rd overall ($1,998,200)

• 74th overall ($975,100)

• 105th overall ($640,300)

• 141st overall ($451,100)

Overall, the Reds have the sixth-highest available bonus pool in the league, totaling $13,785,200. So what would likely scenarios be?

Scenario #1

In this simulation, things end up working out on the chalky side. The top five players on the Prospects Live Draft Board get selected in succession to each other, while the Oakland Athletics serve as a bit of a wildcard. Being in a situation where it looks as if they are a few years from playing competitive baseball, they aim for a high-upside, middle-of-the-diamond player in Arjun Nimmala. This allows the Reds to have their choice of the litter in regard to players like Dollander, Lowder, Teel, Meyer, Gonzalez, and Wilson. 

As you can see, acting as the decision maker here, I chose Kyle Teel and paid him the full slot value. Teel is one of the premier college bats in this class, a pure athlete who gets high marks behind the plate. Some even say he plays catcher like a shortstop, which points towards a profile that stays behind the dish. Beyond that, you’re simply buying a high-level bat.  A .418/.484/.673 slash line should tell you all you need to know. 

Later in the draft, we are able to catch one of the prep shortstops as Adrian Santana finds his way down to pick No. 38. Feels as if with the amount of high-level prep SS in this class that one is bound to slip just a touch. We’re able to reign in Santana Jr. at just over slot value. 

With our third selection, we are able to snag a potential frontline starter in Brandon Sproat. The stuff certainly suggests frontline, however, tweaks to the overall profile are needed. The organizational pitching infrastructure in place offers us to trust that the staff can make adjustments with Sproat and turn this into a great pick. The same can be said for Nick Maldonado who we snagged at pick No. 105 after selecting an extra high-upside prep middle infielder in Trent Caraway at 73 because you can never have enough of those. Jake Cunningham rounds out our five picks to offer just a touch of slot relief, but it’s certainly no throwaway. Cunningham possesses tools that are off the charts, putting it all together will be the test. If it clicks, we’re talking big leaguer.

Scenario #2

In this simulation, we catch a falling Max Clark. This is certainly not an outlandish happening. There's a real chance with the chaos of the MLB Draft that one of Jenkins or Clark finds their way to pick No. 7. For as long as this draft class has been talked about, Clark has been tabbed as one of, if not the best talent in the whole class. It’s an otherworldly high school stat line that includes a batting average in the .600s. Clark is more than a basher, it’s tools across the board. Speed, defense, plate discipline - Clark does it all well. Getting this type of upside at a position of need, at this type of value feels like a no-brainer for the Reds. We do have to pay a touch over-slot to make it happen but Clark feels worth it. 

We find a similar profile with Colton Ledbetter at Pick No. 38. However, Ledbetter comes from the college ranks and may not have the sky-high ceiling of Clark -  the profile is semi-reminiscent. Tanner Witt at pick No. 43 follows a similar path to that of Sproat and Maldonado from Scenario 1. Witt lacks the typical track record thanks to missing a large portion of 2023 due to injury but it’s a bet on the traits and pitching development infrastructure. 

Wolters is a prep arm who has a major helium attached to his name right now. Up to 98 MPH, the big-bodied righty is gaining serious steam. If we’re lucky enough to see Wolters fall this far, we likely have to pay up to keep him from honoring his commitment to Arizona. We make it happen and go over-slot for Wolters but bring it back down to earth with the succeeding picks in Carson Roccaforte and Marcus Brown. A couple of guys who have seen major success at high-level college programs. Roccaforte falls in line with the Ledbetter profile and Brown is reminiscent of Trey Faltine, a fellow shortstop and Reds’ selection from 2022.

Conclusion

With the excitement level rising at the major league level, the opportunity within the 2023 Draft should offer just as much excitement for Cincinnati fans. Largely because this draft class is abnormally stout in its’ top fifty prospects. Just so happens the Reds hold three picks in the top 43. It’s an advantageous situation for a team looking to supplement an already young core. Flexibility is paramount in the chaos-filled MLB Draft. Reds’ brass will have plenty of that. 

Who do you think the Reds should target at No. 7?

2022 MLB Draft Early Preview - Right-Handed Pitchers

While certainly not concrete and all-encompassing, scouts have a way of siphoning the top right-handed talent to the top of draft boards every year. Especially in today’s baseball meta, there are qualifiers a right-handed college pitcher must possess should he hope to get selected in the first round of any given draft. There will always be outliers to any anecdotal model, but the modern right-handed arm is usually cut from a similar cloth.

First and foremost, there must be an element of velocity in his game. Scouts need to see the ability to throw hard, and you’ve got to miss bats as well. Generally, if a pitcher isn’t sitting north of 92 mph consistently, there’s very little chance they’ll hear their name on day one. And that’s the baseline, mind you. More than stuff alone, a right-handed pitcher must be able to command and control the baseball as well. Walks will lose you baseball games, and advanced hitters barrel up middle-middle cheese more often than not. The ability to work in and out, as well as up and down, is critical to the success of any starting pitcher.

A starting pitching prospect should have three pitches and the ability to control those pitches. The ability to command the fastball is a must. More and more, data plays a role in qualifying secondary pitches these days. Scouts like seeing big spin rates and appreciable markers that suggest future success. But some of those indicators in pitch design are discernable to the naked eye. I don’t need to show you TrackMan data to convince you Kumar Rocker’s slider is an extremely effective offering.

Starting pitchers also operate much different than most other arms. Scouts want to see athleticism and the ability to repeat. Pitchers who prove to be good athletes generally have the best chance to see more gains in their development moving forward in professional ball. Athleticism helps with efficiency and fluidity on the mound and can be a prerequisite to a player’s ability to repeat their release. Pitchers that are max-effort and rigid in their operation end up being relievers as they lack longevity and their command wavers earlier in outings.  

Blade Tidwell

Armed with a 99 mph fastball and a wipeout slider, Tennessee RHP Blade Tidwell has the makings of a big league ace. He could be the first starting pitcher off the board in the 2022 MLB Draft. Tidwell spent the offseason re-shaping his fastball... 👀 https://t.co/oiDg9ETDg7

— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) December 20, 2021

Tidwell was a big name in the 2020 MLB Draft, but went unselected due to his bonus demands, ending up in Knoxville. That has paid dividends. Tidwell has the prototype body, the athleticism and some low-hanging fruit in terms of development right in front of him that could vault his name into Top 10 conversations come July.

Tidwell’s full arsenal includes the fastball touching 99, more comfortably resting 94-95 most nights. He was living closer to 96 this summer for the Collegiate National Team. Tidwell focused on Clean Fuego training this summer in an attempt to get more ride out of his heater, experimenting more and more with attacking at the top of the zone, a tact the University of Tennessee has generally shied away from adopting in recent years. At his best, Tidwell was resting north of 19 inches of IVB, touching 22 inches at times. That would play beautifully in 2022. He works in a firm mid-80s bat-missing slider that presents more sweep than it does depth, and shows a fringier high-70s curveball that he struggles to command or throw with complete conviction. The changeup shows promising shape, though feel and command for the offering is still a work-in-progress as well. The book here is arm talent and projection, both of which are substantial.

Over 98.2 innings in 2021, Tidwell pitched to a 3.74 ERA, punching out 90 hitters and walking just 34. The opposition struggled to hit Tidwell, but when they did it would too often come in the form of homers. He made huge strides this summer for the Collegiate National Team, and the results were encouraging. In 31 plate appearances against the best hitters in the country, Tidwell saw his strikeout rate spike to 29 percent, his fastball generating a 33 percent whiff rate. Those are the kinds of numbers scouts like seeing when projecting out a future top-of-the-rotation horse.

Peyton Pallette

One of the reasons Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette gets the acclaim he does is the curveball. Pallette averaged north of 3000 RPM in 2021, *elite* spin rates. He also throws his CB close to 80 mph, another top-of-the-scale figure suggesting future success. pic.twitter.com/yjBNhGUlRd

— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) December 26, 2021

Pallette gets a ton of comparisons to Dodgers hurler Walker Buehler, and for good reason. It’s a lean, 6-foot-1-inch 180-pound frame with exceptional arm speed and a super-efficient lower body operation. That’s the book oh Buehler too. You could argue Pallette presents the best two-pitch combo of any starting pitching prospect in the class.

The fastball-curveball one-two punch from Pallette can be absolutely devastating. The heater touched 99 last season, sitting 93-95 with ease. It’s a high-spin offering with some inefficiencies in terms of spin direction and spin efficiency, something that could truly unlock another gear to his stuff at the top of the zone. While Pallette fills up the zone and commands the fastball well, its shape precludes the ability to generate a ton of swing and miss right now. The curveball is as dynamic as they come, touching 84 mph, sitting comfortably in the low-80s. It’s got spin rates exceeding 3000 rpms, as well as the vertical hammer shape teams covet. The pitch shape and metrics are elite here. Pallette isn’t as comfortable throwing strikes with the breaking ball, but most believe he shows enough feel to project at least a plus out-pitch as a pro. Pallette does possess a below average changeup and has flirted with a cutter as well. Optimists see a potential starter with two plus pitches and a usable off-speed pitch to offer against left-handed hitters.

Pallette has 61.2 innings to his name in Fayetteville, striking out 70 and issuing just 23 walks. He dealt with shoulder fatigue in 2021 so staying healthy in 2022 will be critical to reach his draft-ceiling in July, especially considering his lean frame. Analytically motivated organizations would covet Pallette and his intrinsic abilities on the mound. He certainly has the upside of a top ten pick.

Landon Sims

Run it back pic.twitter.com/1Z7mCCUWQS

— Landon Sims (@landoosims) January 1, 2022

If Pallette doesn’t have the best one-two punch in college baseball, Sims probably does. The electric Sims was as dominant a reliever as you could find in college baseball in 2021, transitioning into a rotation role for the 2022 campaign.

It would be hard to argue for anybody but Sims having the most dominant fastball in college baseball last season. He sat 93-96, reaching back for 98. The ball explodes out of the hand, creating some of the best-performing metrics in the country. Sims threw his fastball for strikes almost 70 percent of the time. Those that swung at the heater whiffed through it more than 40 percent of the time; an outlandish figure at any level. As if those numbers weren’t impressive enough, opposing hitters chased Sims’ fastballs outside of the zone almost 30 percent of the time. Elite whiff rates. Elite chase rates. Pounded the zone. What’s not to like? Sims has a low release and innate deception. If the velocity continues to tick up, this could be a double-plus fastball. The slider is just as dynamic, averaging north of 85 mph and touching 88. Sims attacks hitters from the right side of the rubber and employs more sweep than depth on his slider, though most would characterize the breaking ball as short. It gains effectiveness through tunneling and deception. It plays up thanks to sublime command. It’s at least above average, though most believe it could be plus when all is said and done. Sims really hasn’t shown a changeup or curveball yet, something scouts will want to see in 2022.

Sims has 69.1 innings in his collegiate career despite never starting a game. He has no problem working multiple innings in crunch time. In those innings, he’s punched out an astronomical 123 hitters, issuing just 22 walks. If he carries anything close to that sort of production into the rotation, he could be the first arm off the board in July.  

Kumar Rocker

NO-HITTER.
19 STRIKEOUTS.

VANDERBILT’S KUMAR ROCKER JUST MADE HISTORY! pic.twitter.com/Q05eYikbbR

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) June 9, 2019

After being selected 10th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the New York Mets and Rocker could not come to an agreement on a pro contract. Because of this, Rocker will give it another go in 2022. The narrative is long and exhausted. The concerns over his medicals after reports surfaced that he failed his physical with the Mets post-draft will be the storyline to watch this go around. To date, Rocker and his camp have been entirely absent from the public since July.

The weaponry is well-chronicled. A fastball that has been up to 98.6 but more often sits 93-95. The heater has strong riding characteristics and was swung through more than 31 percent of the time last season, an exceptional figure. The breaking ball is wicked with tremendous depth and deception, grading as high as plus-plus by evaluators. The cutter flashes above average and a changeup that is below average more often than not. It’s a full repertoire and figures to only improve at the pro level.

I’m still 100 percent in on Rocker. It still looks like top-of-the-rotation stuff to me and the operation works over long innings.  It’s at least three pitches in his arsenal, probably four as he continues to mature. The concerns over his medicals will certainly be a point of emphasis, as they should be. If it’s shoulder-related, the caution ramps up a bit, but even if Rocker needs to go under the knife for Tommy John Surgery, it’s hard to imagine him not coming back and performing as he has since he was 16 years old. The track record is long and storied. Don’t overthink it.

Gabriel Hughes

The last Gonzaga Bulldog drafted in the first round was Seattle Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales in 2013. That may change in 2022. RHP Gabriel Hughes is often referred to as "electric" by those who have evaluated him. The fastball touches 96 and the slider can be devastating. pic.twitter.com/jAX7TwGg9h

— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) January 2, 2022

There’s perhaps no other pitcher in the country more likely to explode onto the scene in 2022 than Gonzaga’s Hughes. A two-way guy in 2021, he broke his hand after getting hit by a pitch, costing him much of the year. That said, in 10 starts, he showed all he needed to get scouts juiced for the product of Eagle, Idaho.

At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Hughes is a power arm with the three-pitch mix evaluators covet. The fastball generally sat 91-94 last season, touching 96. He was more 92-95 this summer for the Collegiate National Team, again north of 96. Opposing hitters swung through the heater almost 30 percent of the time last season, but even when they did get bat-to-ball, Hughes avoided barrels. He throws a power-slider that he commands reasonably well glove-side with gyro-bullet spin. It tunnels the fastball well and can be un-hittable when he’s got feel for it. This could eventually be a plus slider. There’s a whole lot more in the tank with Hughes too. He’s an exceptional athlete showcasing a big leg kick and the ability to really ride down the mound, repeating his release consistently. It’s a high waist and long levers. It’s not hard to envision a guy throwing 94-98 in short order as he continues to mature.

Hughes has 73 collegiate innings under his belt with 80 strikeouts and 36 walks. Harnessing more command for his entire arsenal will be a point of emphasis in 2022. If he fills up the zone, the stuff is so good his baseball card is going to be quite gaudy.

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Others to Watch: Adam Maier, Oregon; Marcus Johnson, Duke; Henry Williams, Duke; Eric Adler, Wake Forest; Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State; Jonathan Cannon, Georgia; Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State; Jarred Karros, UCLA; Josh White, Cal; Alex McFarlane, Miami; Mason Barnett, Auburn; Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech; Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State; Jacob Meador, TCU; Derek Diamond, Ole Miss; Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly; Brandon Sproat, Florida; Max Rajcic, UCLA; Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan; Mack Anglin, Clemson; Will Childers, Georgia; Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech; Liam Simon, Notre Dame; Carter Rustad, Missouri; Aaron Nixon; Texas; Nick Maldonado, Vanderbilt; Tyler Nesbitt, Florida; Jackson Finley, Georgia Tech; John Modugno, Indiana; Eric Reyzelman, LSU; Troy Melton; San Diego State; Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State; Sebastian Keane, Northeastern; Andrew Mosiello, Oregon; Sam Highfill, NC State; Matthew Wyatt, Virginia; Jake Brooks, UCLA; Parker Stinnett, Mississippi State; Jackson Fristoe, Mississippi State; Cade Winquest, Texas-Arlington; Will Frisch, Oregon State; Luis Ramirez, Long Beach State; Seth Halvorsen, Tennessee; Mark Adamiak, Arkansas; Cam Schlitter, Northeastern; Cam Weston, Michigan; Nick Durgin, Stetson; There are so many others…….