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Big League Debut: Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles placed 1B Chris Davis on the IL and called up 1B/LF prospect Ryan Mountcastle from alternate camp to make his debut. It’s been a long time coming for Mountcastle as he’s been consistently productive the last few seasons while the Orioles have been playing inferior hitters for financial reasons. Credit to him for not letting it affect his performance as he slashed .312/.344/.527 for Triple-A Norfolk, which was good enough to take home the 2019 International League Most Valuable Player Award. He’s hit .281 or better in every full minor league campaign and he was able to take his power to another level in 2019.
THE RANKINGS
Mountcastle ranked 4th on the Baltimore Orioles Top 30 list and 124th in our Top 500 Fantasy list.
THE TOOLS
Hit (50 present/55 future): As I mentioned above, Mountcastle has been very productive since the Orioles drafted him 36th overall in the 2015 draft as he’s made several minor league all-star teams in addition to taking home the MVP award in 2019. It’s a simple, upright stance for Mountcastle. He controls the barrel extremely well and keeps it in the zone. He’s posted consistent contact rates between 75% and 83% at every stop. His approach is a problem, and not many players have success with a 4.3% walk rate, so he will have to curb his swing happy tendencies to be more than a 2-3 win player consistently. His swing happy ways do keep his strikeout rate down, but he did strikeout at a 23.5% rate last year, representing a career-high for him. With a better approach, his strikeout rates will jump to around 25-28%, but with this ability to find the barrel he will hit for a strong average. I see him topping out somewhere around .275 in the bigs, but that will come with an OBP around .310-.315, limiting the ceiling.
Power (50 game/60 raw): The Orioles farmhand found his power stroke in 2019, blasting a career-high 25 homers and also chipping in 35 doubles. Most of his power comes from his large six-foot-three frame, but he’s also done some work over the last few years optimizing his bath path to add loft. The new changes have worked and the newly found power appears to be enough to make him a big-league regular even as he quickly tumbles down the defensive spectrum. Mountcastle will settle in at around 25-30 homers at peak. The Orioles are working with him to be more patient but also mindful that being aggressive will always be a part of his game.
Defense/Arm (40/30): Mountcastle exclusively played shortstop for his first three professional seasons and then moved to third base. Playing on the left side of the infield was a poor fit for his arm, which is both inaccurate and lacks carry. He began playing some first base and left field for the first time in 2019, and he’s relatively inexperienced at each of those positions. He likely fits best at first base, as his arm will still be an issue in left.
Speed (40/30): Mountcastle has stolen four bases over the last two seasons worth on minor league games, so don’t be expecting anything here. He’s mobile enough to play left field, but as mentioned above mobility isn’t the concern with his defensive profile.
PREDICTION
He should play every day for the Orioles, batting 5th or 6th and splitting his time between left field and first base. He was the second-best hitting prospect in their system, behind Adley Rutschman, and I expect him to hit the ground running offensively. It will be interesting to see how pitchers attack his swing heavy tendencies, and he could be a streaky offensive player due to the approach. He could put up similar numbers as Randal Grichuk, who is a player with similar approach issues. Grichuk walks more but Mountcastle makes more contact.
FANTASY IMPACT
First base is a shockingly thin position in fantasy, so I think Mountcastle should be picked up in all 12+ team leagues as a nice CI option. He’s going to hit in the middle of a big-league lineup that is performing, so there’s a chance for good counting numbers. Downgrade Mountcastle in OBP formats though. I’ll make the distinction that he should be owned in 12 team standard 5x5 leagues, but it would take a 15-team league in OBP formats to make him a regular part of the lineup.
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I like to think of AAA more like a waiting room than a level per se, not every player even stops through AAA these days, and many are there for just a matter of weeks. It’s often rosters cluttered with failed prospects, long shots, and fringe MLB regulars that need a little seasoning. The International League, at least on paper far exceeds those expectations. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. technically highlighting, there’s a strong crop behind him in Bo Bichette, Nick Senzel, Touki Toussaint, Dylan Cease, Nate Lowe, and others. The first half of the year should be deep with prospect showdowns particularly those games in which Gwinnett is involved. The Braves affiliate boasts the most loaded rotation and staff in the minors with three Top 100 arms on the roster. Should be a fun group to follow as many of these future stars debut on the big stage.