Taking a look at some big rookies that won a roster spot for their teams and why.
2021 NPB Preview and Players to Watch: Pacific League
It is that wonderful and beautiful time of the year again with NPB starting back later today/tonight based on your time zone, so join me in previewing this upcoming season and which specific players to watch (MLB quality talent/rookie to watch)
First things first, we have to explain where the foreigner situation currently sits for those not as connected to the league. As of publishing, the majority of gaijin have been kept out of Japan due to their state of emergency and only up until the past week were those players able to gain access and enter the country. With this comes an enforced two-week quarantine and then those players will finally be able to start training with their teams. There have been some ideas floating around suggesting that all of the foreign players stay at the Tokyo Dome area in order to work out and train together as they get back to playing shape post-quarantine before returning to their teams, but nothing has been confirmed yet. All we know is the foreigners not in the country yet won’t be playing in games for at least a month or so. This creates some really awkward and awful situations for certain teams (Looking at you Baystars).
Anyways, hope you enjoy my ramblings! Central League coming soon!
Pacific League Preview:
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
Who else? The Hawks continued their dynasty last season easily sweeping the Yomiuri Giants in the 2020 Japan Series. It is at this point now that the Hawks are easily in the conversation for some of the best teams and dynasties in all of sports history after winning 7 titles in the past 10 years. However, just as Rome, the 90s Bulls, and the great dynasty that was Blockbuster, all dynasties crumble over time.... just not this year. The Hawks may have lost big names that have helped in title pushes in the past, Matt Moore, Rick Van Den Hurk, Seiichi Uchikawa. But additions of Colin Rea, Nick Martinez, and future prospect Andy Rodriguez out of Cuba spell continued success. Also having Yurisbel Gracial, Alfredo Despagne and Livan Moinelo from the start of the season will have a huge impact. The Hawks, although losing out on more names than adding, the ever so strong farm and player development system ensures that no matter how much they lose, they have enough depth to still be competitive. They still have the very talented arms and bats, that are enough to end up first. Although it will be tighter than typical, I still have the Hawks ending in first.
MLB Potential: Yuki Yanagita, Kodai Senga and Livan Moinelo
The defending PL MVP of last season is once again back to drive the Hawks to another title. If Yanagita stays healthy and mashes like he did last year then I don’t think anyone comes close to him in the MVP races once again. Slashing an incredible .342/.449/.623 in 2020 with 29 bombs and an NPB best 8.4 WAR (2.7 points higher than the next closest player), Yanagita is still the dominant “Gita” we all know and love. Getting to watch him play is similar to watching Mike Trout. You know how great of a player he is and yet still somehow expands your expectations. If you have to watch one player from one game this season, It’s by far him.
Although not to be outdone by his fellow teammate, Kodai Senga had a solid return to the mound with a healthy 2020. Posting a career-best as a starter ERA of 2.16 over the stretch of 18 starts and 121 IP. Senga is still a very powerful pitcher, still able to hit upper 90s on the radar guns topping out at 100 last season, with his ghastly “Haunted Fork” that is still just as good as ever at 83 that falls off a table. He also throws a cutter around 20% of the time with a slider rounding it out.
As easy as it would’ve been to just skimp on this and just reiterate the first two names on here as most lists that talk about potential players to make the MLB jump feature both Yanagita and Senga. There is another guy that is just too good to not be mentioned. With SoftBank’s reluctance to post players and even with Senga’s annual begging of them to send him stateside, the chances of Senga or Yanagita reaching the MLB this upcoming off-season is extremely low. However, Senga does have domestic free agency after this year, and international free agency the year following that. So I would expect Senga to be coming over after the 2022 season. In the meantime, let’s mention one of my favorite relievers to watch in the entire league, and if anybody knows me, they would know that I absolutely adore a reliever who comes in and demolishes batters and slams the door shut every single appearance. For that reason, Livan Moinelo deserves the mention.
Moinelo is a Cuban LHP with one of the best curveballs in all of professional baseball. Regularly reaching a stunning RPM of over 3000, the pitch is absolutely unfair to hitters. A truly vicious hard biting 1-7 break from a high ¾ armslot. Moinelo will mostly depend on this as an out pitch but also throws in his fastball around the middle-90s that at times isn’t strong command wise inducing walks but when it's landing well it can be used as a way to throw off hitters sitting on the curveball. That as well as a slider and changeup. I like the changeup the most of the two as its another good way to throw hitters off if they sit fastball or the curveball. Both are solid pitches at the end of the day. With a K/9 of around 14 and a WHIP around 1, he comes in for SoftBank and outside of sequences of poor command, is shut down. It is too bad that he has been mostly used as a setup guy his career with SoftBank behind Yuito Mori, another showcase to just how stacked the Hawks have been over the years. Regardless, Moinelo has plenty of the talent required to make an MLB bullpen and has more than the stuff needed to succeed.
It’s about to get very tight after this as the next three teams could realistically finish in any order but this is what I’ll go with:
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
It was another big money spending offseason for the Eagles as unless you were living under a rock over the offseason you would’ve already heard about the return of Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka returns to Sendai and the hopes of winning a title suddenly becomes much higher. A very strong rotation of Hideaki Wakui, Masahiro Tanaka, Takahiro Norimoto, Takayuki Kishi and new rookie draft pick Takahisa Hayakawa. Pairing with them is an average lineup composed of the very powerful and 2020 HR King, Hideto Asamura and the always solid Daichi Suzuki. Ryosuke Tatsumi and Hiroaki Shimauchi look very good this spring, with Tatsumi looking to have taken a strong step forward in his progression. The Eagles are hoping to take their lineup and provide some needed run support for what should be one of the better rotations in NPB. The Eagles at the earlier point of last year was one of the highest scoring lineups before eventually falling back to average.
However, that's when the doubt for the team starts to arrive. Even at points in the season when Asamura started to cool off after looking like a potential MVP winner, the offense felt stale and felt like it was being solely driven by Stefan Romero’s power for when Asamura and others started to pick it back up late in the year. With Romero gone to reunite in Osaka with the Buffaloes and Jabari Blash retiring, it brings up large questions about how the lineup will hold up throughout the season powerwise. Meanwhile, although the rotation should be very solid there are still valid questions there as well. Hideaki Wakui was vintage in 2020, expecting him to keep that up isn’t likely. Even though Norimoto should return back to his ace quality of the past, it's not guaranteed with how inconsistent he has been. Every pitcher besides Hayakawa is in their thirties and can very easily regress. Hayakawa projects to be a very good pitcher over time and is one of my favorites from the most recent draft, but he is still a rookie with room to grow and a lot to learn in a league where all of the teams can put up plenty of runs every night. So if the pitching becomes what it is supposed to be and the lineup holds up throughout the season then I can see them finishing second. However, if the aging of the rotation leads to regression or the lineup doesn’t supply enough run support, it could be a long season.
Arm of the Future
The highest touted arm of the past draft, Takahisa Hayakawa is in a big role for the Eagles in 2021. The good thing is, the rookie is absolutely filthy. Hayakawa was very impressive in 2020 dominating the Tokyo Big 6 college competition bumping his numbers from the past year. Able to spot his fastball working around 90-93 mph, up to 95, he builds off that with a nasty high spin rate cutter (2700 rpm) and slider (2900 rpm). Both tunneling well together. In addition he can throw a more than solid changeup that runs a bit armside. In addition to a big hammer curveball that can be used as another out pitch in addition to the slider and changeup. The curveball gets more vertical break than his slider takes the hitters off of the other breaker. Lastly, he can throw a fork that with some work can be another quality pitch if all of the other breaking offers don’t matchup well. He had some moments of success in his spring against the Baystars where he pitched 4 innings allowing just 1 hit and striking out 5. While also having some moments of struggle against a strong experienced lineup as the Giants, walking 2 and allowing 5 runs off 7 hits and 2 homeruns. However, just off the glimpses of quality he’s shown in just the three appearances, Hayakawa is definitely a name to follow.
Saitama Seibu Lions
The Lions are coming into the new season hoping for a return to old form, as the defending pennant winners, as it appears that the loss of Shogo Akiyama may have proved more vital than expected. A strong lack of pitching quality and off years for both stars Hotaka Yamakawa and Tomoya Mori, led to the Lions struggling for the majority of the year until catching steam later on. That late push was strong enough to allow them to pass Rakuten and finish third. As much as their pitching will still struggle, missing out on ace Zach Neal for a month will definitely hurt. Their offense seems to be returning back to normal for 2021. There are still arms to like in the rotation and pen however. Kona Takahashi will be the opening day starter and posted a 3.1 WAR. As well as flamethrowing Pacific League Rookie of the Year, Kaima Taira will be back in the pen and just as good, if not better. The chances of another year of Yamakawa hitting just barely over the mendoza line and Tomoya Mori struggling at the plate feels low and even if Takumi Kuriyama doesn’t have another career year, the Lions offense should still be powerful enough to make up for their pitching woes. Also the great defensive duo of 2B Shuta Tonosaki and SS Sosuke Genda will help in 2021 both in the field and at the plate. Meanwhile, Cory Spangenberg was surprisingly good last year and should have another very solid year for the Lions once he is able to join back with the team. Overall, the Lions may have been underperformers in 2020, after all they did win a pennant not that long ago. If continued struggles on the hitting side and poor pitching occur, it may hold them back for another year.
The Player Formerly Known as “Brandon”
Brandon Taiga Tysinger was the 6th round draft pick of the Seibu Lions last fall. At the initial time it was being discussed more for the name than the quality of player. After being officially registered just as “Brandon (ブランドン)”, “Brandon” wouldn’t take long to make his name known in the league. Hitting .259 and 2 homeruns in his 27 at-bats, “Brandon” will get the chance with the ichi-gun squad to start the year and will be looking to build on the strong spring. An all around solid infielder with room to grow, “Brandon” will be an easy name to remember and follow throughout this season.
Chiba Lotte Marines
One of the brightest lights of 2020 was the rise of the Marines. Before a covid outbreak would kill any chances of the team winning the pennant, the Marines were going toe to toe with the Hawks. Led by a mix of veterans Takashi Ogino, Seiya Inoue, and pitchers Ayumu Ishikawa and Kota Futaki. As well as Foreign slugger Leonys Martin, the Marines survived with a less than stellar offense and survived by fantastic pitching performances, strong defense and their good bullpen. However, it seems that although there is youth with promise coming through the ranks with Roki Sasaki, Kyota Fujiwara, Hisanori Yasuda and Koki Yamaguchi. I feel as if there could be a stronger chance of growing pains than the chance of repeated success. The Marines have improved in the power area with Martin and Brandon Laird and Inoue over the past couple of years, but the others haven’t supplied much along side with them. If that continues and the pitching isn’t as great as last year the Marines could experience a bit of a disappointing year.
However, with that comes the bright opportunity for the youngsters to shine.
The Future of Chiba
For the Marines to build off last year’s wonderful year they’ll need the youth to take the next step up. The biggest of these names is by far, Roki Sasaki. Sasaki since high school has been one of the biggest names in the prospect world, attracting attention from all around the globe. After two appearances consisting of a total of three innings in his professional career, it is more than obvious that Sasaki will need to put in innings on the farm and that is what the Marines will do to begin the season. Slowly building up his innings and hopefully if all goes well return to the top team later in the season. If you would like to read more about Sasaki I wrote about him in last year’s “players to watch” article here. So in the meantime let's focus on some players who will get an opportunity to perform sooner than later.
Those include Kyota Fujiwara, Hisanori Yasuda and Koki Yamaguchi. Although Yasuda may not have posted the best looking numbers, in his run with the top team last year he showed some strong promise. He started out red hot to begin the season before having a poor august, picking it back up in September and then and then a dire October. When he was hot he was hitting well with bits and pieces of power. If he can cut out the plentiful strikeouts while getting stronger this season, then he could become a useful piece of the lineup.
Another really intriguing bat from his short time last season was Kyota Fujiwara providing 3 HR in his first 96 AB with the top team while hitting .260/.301/.406. Although early struggles in spring have occurred for him, I think he’ll bounce back as we go into the season. Koki Yamaguchi also should add more power to the lineup that the Marines need. After hitting .258/.315/.393 hitting 7 home runs and stealing 14 bags over 244 ABs on the farm last year. He will be making his top team debut early on as he will be starting the year with them. Yamaguchi has excellent bat speed with loft that has shown off in the spring matches, hitting 2 home runs already. That excellent bat speed allows for him to crush balls when he connects and pulls a ball. He also can rip fastballs in on the hands as he showed on the farm last year. However, the swing needs to be tightened up a bit as its still a bit wild and comes with it a danger of swing and miss.
Lastly, I’ll also tab Akito Takabe in here as well as he mashed on the farm last year hitting .344/.367/.422 with 14 SBs. Although he went 1-10 in a very short sip of coffee in ichi-gun last year. He is already back off to a hot start this spring, and I like him to get more run this season at ichi-gun. He also has a fantastic story so I am really rooting for him to do well.
Orix Buffaloes
Where do I start with the Buffaloes? Forever stuck in the doldrums of the Pacific League, filled with individual talent that can never get it done nor get out of the pit of the last place. After another dead last finish for them, 2021 is looking up. As much as they have disappointed and as hard as it is to trust them, I think this could be the year the Buffaloes finally snap out of it and actually compete for at the very least 5th. Filled with youth and potential, the Buffaloes really have an intriguing team on paper. Both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Masataka Yoshida are some of the best players in the Pacific League and if not all of NPB. Taisuke Yamaoka should come back stronger after missing a lot of last year with an injury. Adam Jones and Steven Moya will have another year under their belt, Takahiro Okada will have crazy power once again and when Stefan Romero arrives with the team, he’ll be there to apply plenty of offensive firepower. In addition with young players who have shown promise this spring and last year in the likes of Hiroya Miyagi, Ryo Ohta and Yuma Tongu. Kodai Sano looks to have taken a major step in the spring in the leadoff role as well. Yoshihisa Hirano returns from the MLB and Tyler Higgins and Brandon Dickson should be solid in the bullpen again.
However, as intriguing as the team is, there’s still an eerie feeling in the back of my mind that haunts me the way Orix always does. Although there is plenty of power there is a fair chance they don't hit enough for average, when the power doesn’t supply. As well as behind Yamamoto and Yamaoka there isn’t much left in the rotation. Lastly, as anyone knows, any young player produces some sort of risk, especially without a full year of results to prove they can provide good performances. We can only hope their defense and baserunning gaffs don’t continue this year and the Buffaloes can exceed expectations and finish 5th and above.
Orix needs a Hiro-ya
A big potential reason for the Buffaloes' success is in rookie LHP Hiroya Miyagi. Miyagi was the 1st overall pick by the Buffaloes in the 2019 draft. After only 3 starts in 2020, Miyagi looks poised to have a strong 2021. Miyagi has been impressive in his starts of the spring against the Baystars, the defending Central League Champions and two-time defending Japan Series loser Giants, and an extra impressive 11 strikeout start against the Tigers. Miyagi uses a low 90s fastball out of a ¾ arm slot, yes the velocity isn’t the best but Miyagi excels at using strong pitchability to have his stuff play up. He mostly mixes in a classic sweeping slider around 80mph away to LHH and to cut in on the hands of the RHH. It can be used as an out pitch against both handednesses. Miyagi mixes that with a big slow curveball that ranges in velocities of 68 mph all the way down to 60 mph. It breaks well from 2:00 to 8:00 and really throws hitters off, often freezing hitters because their timing is so destroyed or making them whiff badly over it. In addition to those, Miyagi includes a changeup around 75 mph that also dies off and gives the hitter another look. The very encouraging thing about Miyagi is that he doesn’t solely rely on the fastball to set up the breakers. If he gets behind in a count he won’t be afraid to use all three of the other offerings to get over the plate for strikes. Being able to battle back into counts and keep hitters off.
Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
The Fighters are in an interesting situation, although the team has plenty of potential talent waiting in the wings. The lack of progression in the development of those has stagnated their return to A class. At times last year, the offense felt fully revolved around the talents of Sho Nakata, even with very good players like always hitting Kensuke Kondoh and being able to bring back Haruki Nishikawa. As well as Taishi Ohta who is looking to try his luck in the MLB market again following this season, who at times can be an above-average player with his gigantic arm in RF showing out from time to time. Even when Drew VerHagen is able to arrive with the team, he’ll be building off of a team-best 3.8 WAR season. Rookie pitcher Hiromi Itoh has looked pretty good so far in his first spring and Yuki Nomura had an intriguing 2020. However, with that comes a whole bunch of question marks. A lack of other power outside of Nakata raises questions, and when Nakata isn’t providing, the rest of the lineup can be quiet. As well as this season is a massive make or break season for Kotaro Kiyomiya. A long fall from grace after being viewed as the can’t miss prospect of the decade. Three years in a row of hitting at the Mendoza line or worse without producing enough power to come close to making up for it. As well as the obvious loss of Kohei Arihara and losing out on Nick Martinez as well bodes for a year of struggling for the Fighters.
Hometown Kid Looking To Start His Career
2020 first-round draft pick of the Fighters, Hiromi Itoh was born and raised in the Hokkaido prefecture as the third generation of octopus fishermen. Growing up as a Fighters fan, Itoh would grow his love of the team by watching his favorite pitcher Yu Darvish. Little would he know that he would end up becoming not only a Fighter, but one with heavy expectations as the first round pick. However, after a strong spring and good appearances, Ito might just live up to his expectations. Itoh was the go-to closer for the Samurai Japan U18s in 2019 and will look to slot right into the Fighters rotation as possible. He will be starting with the farm team this season, but a good stretch of starts down there could lead to a promotion to ichi-gun. Itoh can hit up to 96 but sits under that near the low 90s. My favorite of Itoh’s pitches and what succeeded very well for him this spring is the slider. Having been measured around 2,500 RPM it breaks well away from right-handed hitters around mid 80s. At times the curveball can also show well against left-handed hitters, and I also like the very slow and dying forkball that gets a bit of arm side run.
Image Credit: Bunshun.jp
Spring Training Week 3: Top Prospect Performers
Meet Marco Luciano, Baseball's Next Young Superstar
A's Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Oakland A’s are the next AL West team on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled out over two-thirds of the league.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets — Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox — Twins — Cleveland
NL Central: Cardinals — Reds — Pirates — Cubs — Brewers
AL West: Mariners — Rangers — Angels
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
OF — Luis Barrera (4)
When Robbie Grossman signed a two-year contract with the Tigers, it left the opportunity for Barrera to make the roster in 2021 after a strong showing in alternate camp in 2020. He has plus speed and an arm that grades between 60 and 70. Injuries have derailed his progress but if he can hit for average, and continue to get on base at a high rate — as he did in Double-A in 2019 in which he posted a wRC+ of 139 — Barrera could make a sizable impact as early as this year. Plus, his ability to play any spot in the outfield increases his versatility.
OF — Greg Deichmann (1)
The 2017 second-round draft pick out of LSU had a strong AFL showing two seasons ago. Like Barrera, injuries have derailed his progress. The left-hander has power potential with a good arm that could play in the corners. The strikeout numbers are alarming but Oakland could call him up at some point to see what he is capable of.
RHP-Grant Holmes (2)
Holmes has four different types of pitch offerings which include a fastball, curve, changeup, and a slider that looks like more of a cutter according to reports. His biggest setbacks have been his control and command. His health concerns, and how Oakland used him in 2019, suggest he could be a middle reliever. Holmes has tremendous upside and some of the best stuff in the system when he is healthy — in addition to having some lengthy locks underneath his cap.
Notable
Brian Howard, Buddy Reed and Parker Dunshee are other names that could get consideration to make their debuts this season. Dunshee and Howard profile as backend starters.
Rangers Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Texas Rangers are the next AL West team on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled over two-thirds of the league.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets — Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox — Twins — Cleveland
NL Central: Cardinals — Reds — Pirates — Cubs — Brewers
AL West: Mariners
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Texas Rangers
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
RHP — Hans Crouse (1)
Crouse was the type of arm that drew plenty of, both, excitement and curiosity coming out of the 2017 MLB Draft, given his fastball/breaking ball combo. Unfortunately, the lack of a clean injury history and a quirky delivery combine to leave a fair amount risk. Overall, Crouse has already shown that he’s capable of dominating right-handed batters, and his stuff would certainly play up in the bullpen should the Rangers decide to give him a look late in the season.
RHP — Yerry Rodriguez (2)
Analytically, Rodriguez looks like a top pitching prospect with elite spin rate and good velocity to go along with a great ability to pound the zone. However, the stuff has not dominated the way that one would expect, and a slew of injuries has resulted in a stall in development. The Rangers have included him on their 40-man roster heading into this season so they are clearly of the belief that he is close to making contributions in Texas. That said, I would expect him to spend a little bit more time marinating in the minors before being promoted later in the season.
RHP — Tyler Phillips (3)
Phillips is the type of pitcher that lacks an ability to overpower or dominate hitters, but has the makings of a back end rotation piece due to plus command of his four pitch arsenal coupled with a strong GB clip. The Rangers have rolled the dice with a few of their rotation acquisitions this off season so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them turn to a high floor type of arm like Phillips at some point if they are searching for someone to eat some innings.
NOTABLE
The second pick in the Rule 5 this year, Brett de Geus, looks poised to be in competition for a bullpen spot after coming over from the Dodgers. could see innings at some point this year. Another intriguing name to follow is Japanese right-hander Kohei Arihara. Already 28, Arihara doesn’t fit the typical bill for a prospect on these lists, but he should get an immediate spot in the rotation and it will be interesting following in his first action stateside.
Photo Credit: James Snook
Helping Hiura: What Went Wrong in 2020 and How to Adjust in 2021
Mariners Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Seattle Mariners the first AL West team on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled out two-thirds of the league.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets — Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox — Twins — Cleveland
NL Central: Cardinals — Reds — Pirates — Cubs — Brewers
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Seattle Mariners
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
OF — Taylor Trammell (2)
It’s not often you see Top 100 prospects being traded multiple times prior to even making their big-league debut. However, that’s exactly where we are with Trammell. Fans of the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres might be keeping tabs on him, while Mariners fans will be ripe with anticipation as the 23-year-old outfielder makes his MLB debut for Seattle.
The outfield scene in Seattle has become one of, if not the most exciting developments over the last 12 months. With Kyle Lewis entrenched for years to come, the Mariners are simply bidding time with veteran outfielders until the youth are ready to take over. Trammell will get his call in 2021 and if the club gets off to a nice start, they may decide to turn the outfield duties over to the youngsters.
RHP — Logan Gilbert (2)
Drafted ahead of arms like Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch, the latter of which is set to make his debut as well, there’s plenty of reason for you to be excited about Gilbert. The 6-foot-6 righty boasts a quality four-pitch mix (Fastball, Curveball, Slider, Changeup) that will play up due to his overall baseball acumen. Chris Flexen, recently acquired from the KBO on a two-year pact, is expected to see time in the Mariners rotation this season. Given that he has posted a 3-11 record with an 8.07 ERA over three seasons of big-league work prior to joining the KBO, there’s no reason to think that he’ll stand in the way of Gilbert, once he’s ready.
OF — Jarred Kelenic (2)
This is the name that you’ve been waiting for. Many of you laugh at the trade that the Chicago White Sox made with the San Diego Padres, sending Fernando Tatis Jr to Southern California. What if I told you that the New York Mets sending Kelenic and Justin Dunn to the Great Northwest might be just as laughable, would you believe me?
Unafraid to show off his development on social media, you’ve likely seen several of his talent exploits at this point. Perhaps nothing is more impressive than smashing a frisbee in mid flight by driving a liner into the centerfield — see for yourself.
Showing an equal balance of a plus-hit tool and plus-power, it’s no wonder that he’s being deemed by some to be the best prospect in all of baseball. The good news is that you’ll likely get to see both him and Wander Franco in 2021. Apologies to the White Sox, Braves, Nationals, Angels, and Dodgers, but it’s hard to image a more hyped outfield group than Kelenic, Lewis, Trammell, and Julio Rodriguez in Seattle. Not likely to be an issue in 2021 — it’ll be fascinating to see how the club manages those four guys moving forward?
Notable
Currently on the 40-man roster, bullpen options Sam Delaplane and Wyatt Mills could see innings at some point this year. Both of these guys were 2017 selections, Mills out of nearby Gonzaga University. There’s an off-chance that the club’s No. 6 prospect, George Kirby, gets a call at some point, although far less likely than any of the arms listed above.
Starting Pitchers Who Would Benefit From a Changed Pitch Mix Pt.2
Reds Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Cincinnati Reds are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled out over half the league.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets—Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox—Twins—Cleveland
NL Central: Cardinals
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Cincinnati Reds
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
RHP — Tony Santillan (3)
The loss of Trevor Bauer is not to be taken lightly. Coupled with the fact that Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo have heard their names in numerous trade discussions, this starting rotation could look significantly different at season’s end.
While he was once viewed as one of the best prospects in their system, Santillan has seen his stock slip over the last couple seasons. He’s likely to make a couple spot-starts on an as-needed basis with the majority of his work coming in a relief role.
LHP — Nick Lodolo (2)
This is the name that Reds fans are likely most excited to see on a big league field. Their first selection in the 2019 draft, Lodolo is the best left-hander — possibly the best pitcher overall — they have in the minors. Standing 6-foot-6 and pumping mid-90s heat from the left side can be intimidating by itself. However, there’s likely room for him to add a few pounds to his 205-pound frame.
His arsenal of fastball, slider, and changeup are enough for him to be an effective starter, but it’s his ability to throw strikes and control the zone that will truly carry him to the middle of the starting rotation. If you’re looking for something to balk at, you’ll find it by simply looking at the lack of experience — he’s only thrown 18.1 innings of professional ball. That said, they were about as impressive as you could ask for. During the 2019 campaign he faced a total of 74 batters — he struck out 30 of them. For those of you keeping score, that’s a 40% K%.
SS — Kyle Holder (1)
Players that are garnering the Time on Roster Score of ‘one’ are typically going to be guys that get a September call-up. That’s not the case with Holder as he was a recent acquisition — having been traded by the Phillies soon after they selected him from the Yankees in December’s Rule 5 Draft. The reason he is unlikely to see much time is simply because he has never played above Double-A, doesn’t possess much upside, and won’t do much to help the Reds win games. Was that too harsh?
When the calendar hits June, you should not be surprised to see someone else starting at shortstop for Cincinnati. Unfortunately for them, the free agent market has all but dried up. However, Jose Garcia has much more upside and could be a much better option without having to acquire talent through trade. If that’s not the route they want to go, Kyle Farmer is the only other option currently on the 40-man roster.
Notable
The big name that was left off here is Vladimir Gutierrez. Similar to Santillan, he’s another guy that has seen his stock drop and will likely be best served as a bullpen fixture where he can spotlight his breaking ball, potentially developing the control to serve as a spot-starter or backend rotation piece. Riley O’Brien and Jared Solomon are a pair of right-handed pitchers that are currently on the 40-man roster and could work their way into a few innings as taxi-squad regulars.
Photo Credit: Cincinnati.com
Cardinals Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The St. Louis Cardinals are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled out the AL and NL East along with the AL Central.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets—Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox—Twins—Cleveland
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
3B — Nolan Gorman (1)
The 3B spot for Gorman to potentially claim at some point this season quickly closed up after the Cardinal’s big acquisition of a different Nolan just a few weeks ago. The arrival of Nolan Arenado will obviously impact the trajectory of Gorman’s next few seasons, but the left handed swing has shown that the slugger is going to be a force in the major leagues at some point. Expect Gorman to take the better part of this year to continue to iron out some of the swing and miss tendencies, but don’t be too surprised if he gets a cup of coffee in September.
LHP — Zack Thompson (1)
One of the bigger names coming into the ‘19 Draft out of Kentucky was Zack Thompson. He wrestled with some injuries that ultimately led to his stock falling a bit and primarily being used in the pen during his first taste of professional ball. However, with that in the rear-view, the Cards should be looking to push him fairly quickly as is common with established college arms.
C — Ivan Herrera (3)
Looking at the depth chart right now, it would appear likely that Herrera plays almost the entire season at the MLB level, but there’s a pretty significant name still on the market by the name of Yadier Molina. It seems as a return to the Red Birds is almost inevitable for the longtime Cardinal’s backstop so Herrera will likely end up sliding down a spot on depth chart. Nonetheless, Andrew Knizner nor recently acquired Tyler Heineman are overly successful backstops so a spot for Herrera could potentially open up rather quickly.
NOTABLE
A couple of names to consider that could see some at bats are Luken Baker and Juan Yepez. Both stem from the same tree: Corner-only RHH power bats. Otherwise, Angel Rondon, Connor Jones, and Griffin Roberts are a few arms who could see a handful of innings in the Cards’ pen at some point.
Starting Pitchers Who Would Benefit From a Changed Pitch Mix Pt.1
Players to Watch: Francisco Alvarez
Cleveland Baseball Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Cleveland Baseball Team is next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled out the AL and NL East.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets—Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox—Twins
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
CLEVELAND BASEBALL TEAM
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
INF-Nolan Jones (2)
Cleveland’s outfield woes are well documented and the athletic Jones could see some time out there in 2021. He spent time playing the outfield in Cleveland’s alternate site last summer and could see himself in either corner spot. The number one prospect in their system carries a strong power tool and a grade 70 arm that could place him at either corner position.
LHP-Sam Hentges (3)
Hentges spent time on the team’s alternate site in 2020 and opened some eyes hitting 100 in intrasquad action. The lefty’s 2019 numbers do not exactly stand out but with the trade of Carlos Carrasco, the 6-6 245 starter may have an opportunity to make the team out of spring training.
As Justin Lada wrote up in his report, he spots his fastball well but lacks command of his other pitches. If Hentges can command his secondary pitches better, Cleveland may end up using him out of the bullpen instead, which would be another weapon to add to an already formidable bullpen.
LHP-Scott Moss (3)
Moss is another arm who could compete for the final spot in the rotation. He posted near a 30% K rate in his stops in Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. Another tall lefty standing at 6-6, Moss got time in the team’s alternate site and features a fastball, slider, and changeup. He is 26 years old so this could be the right time for Moss to see time.
NOTABLE
Other names to consider that could see some time are SS/2B Ernie Clement and Owen Miller.
Twins Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Minnesota Twins are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, we have already rolled out the AL and NL East.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets—Nationals
AL Central: Tigers — Royals — White Sox
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Minnesota Twins
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
SS — Nick Gordon (1)
This is the year that we finally get a glimpse at the fifth overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft. Unfortunately, it’s likely just that — a glimpse. Gordon is no longer a highly-regarded prospect in this organization as he’s seen his stock plummet year after year. Middle infield is a strength of this team in 2021 so there won’t be much run for him, however a late season call-up would allow the Twins to see what exactly he has at the big league level.
If the club found themselves in a position where they were out of contention, they might look to trade away players like Jorge Polanco and Andrelton Simmons, the later of which signed a one-year deal this year. If that scenario were to happen, consider Gordon a lock to be the stop-gap for the remainder of 2021.
RHP — Jhoan Duran (1)
In recent years, names like Randy Dobnak and Jordan Balazovic have been the often-discussed prospects when it comes to arms. However, Duran could turn into the best option of that bunch. Since coming over in the trade that sent Eduardo Escobar to Arizona, the 23-year-old hurler has posted a 10.71 K/9 while flashing a plus fastball and plus splitter — a combination that will also help him keep the ball on the ground.
RHP — Bailey Ober (2)
Having shown signs of development during the 2019 campaign, Ober was certainly impacted by the lack of a season last year. Over his 78.2 innings pitched two years ago, the now-25-year-old posted an 8-0 record, allowed just six earned runs, walked a half-dozen batters, and struck out 100 batters. A case could have been made that he would have been up in 2020 had there been a full season.
Currently on the 40-man roster, the Twins may call on him to provide innings out of the bullpen in 2021. He could also see a few spots starts throughout the year given his ability to command the strike-zone and keep hitters off base. A 6-foot-9 frame does not often translate into above-average command and control, however, that’s exactly what the Twins have seen so far from Ober. If he is able to continue that trend, you may see a lot of him over the next few years.
Notable
This might sound contrary to what the consensus is around baseball, but it doesn’t seem like there is much playing time available to Royce Lewis in 2021. Many outlets might provide a path for the former No. 1 overall pick, however it doesn’t seem likely given the recent moves to bolster the MLB club. Alex Kirilloff was not included on this list for one reason — technically he already made his debut, despite his playoff appearance last season not counting toward service time.
Royals Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
Tigers Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Detroit Tigers are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, here’s a look at all the teams that we have covered so far.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets—Nationals
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Detroit Tigers
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
INF-Zack Short (3)
The Tigers have a strong idea of what they were getting in Short. Acquired for Cameron Maybin in 2020, he rates as an above-average fielder plays multiple positions, can draw walks, and has some pop, hitting 17 home runs in Double-A in 2018. General Manager Al Avila has said he is an “MLB-Ready” defender.
“We like him a lot in the sense that from a makeup perspective, he’s one of those guys that managers love to manage because he’s a high energy — sort of a baseball rat who plays hard,” Avila said. “He’s a very good shortstop, from our reports, and from our data. He’s really major league ready right now from a defensive perspective.
If Short hits the ground running at Toledo, he would be one of the first call-ups for the Tigers if there is an injury to a starter.
RHP-Matt Manning (2)
“I’m ready to go”. Those four words Manning muttered during a recent session with the media last week. His numbers in Erie in 2019 stood out, striking out batters at a 28.1% clip and posting a FIP of 2.53.
The good news for Tigers fans is, after a forearm issue back in August, he had no restrictions in his offseason throwing program. What is even better news is he spent time this off-season tinkering on his off-speed pitches and mechanics, creating a new arm slot.
It is a matter of time before Manning throws his changeup with more confidence and once he gets that down in Toledo, where he slated to start the season, he will be a quick drive up I-75 north.
OF-Akil Baddoo (5)
The Tigers are betting on the upside on the left-handed hitting centerfielder. He was a Rule 5 pick in December 2020 so he must stay on the roster the entire season so this has the potential to be similar to when Detroit drafted outfielder Victor Reyes in 2017.
Baddoo is known for his athleticism, ability to draw walks, above-average speed, and has power potential. He only played 29 games in High-A in 2019 before he hurt his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. His arm is considered below-average.
As our own Trevor Hooth wrote up:
“Baddoo will be most successful by utilizing his good eye to capitalize on mistake pitches. His lack of feel to find the barrel of the bat is one of the bigger weaknesses. What he has a tendency to do is just throw his hands at the pitch once he decides it will be a strike. That results in whiffs, as evidenced by his 24 percent strikeout rate in 2018, which was pacing higher before the injury in 2019. The other outcome of this is bad and sometimes hesitant swings that result in poor contact.”
Daz Cameron and Derek Hill are the two other outfielders pushing for time in the outfield so Baddoo will have his work cut out for him in spring training.
Notable
Joey Wentz, a left-handed starting pitcher who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, is a name who could get a September call-up. After coming over in a trade from Atlanta, his debut in Erie turned some heads, posting a 37.8% K rate in 25.2 innings of work. Riley Greene, who was hitting with power both in spring and summer camp, continues to rise through the system. He could also get a look in September.
Nationals Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The Washington Nationals are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, here’s a look at all the teams that we have covered so far.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies — Mets
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
Washington Nationals
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
LHP — Tim Cate (2)
While he doesn’t strike you as a Nationals “top prospect”, Cate has all the makings of a quality relief pitcher. Now, that’s not exactly what you’d like to see from a second round (2018) draft selection, but with non-roster invitee Luis Avilan listed as the only left-hander other than Brad Hand to have over one full season of service time, it seems reasonable that Cate could get chances in the bullpen this season.
Nationals Pitching Coordinator Brad Holman has gone on the record discussing Cate’s progress.
“Tim can spin a curveball well above average,” Holman said. “His changeup and two-seamer have really come along. He was able to get the ball sinking arm side where he used to have a little issue cutting the ball. He would kind of cut it on accident glove side. He learned how to make that ball go the other way now.
Seth Romero and Ben Braymer round out the lefties currently listed on the 40-man roster. While Romero is a name you may know, neither of those guys should stand in the way of Cate and his big-league debut.
OF — Nick Banks (1)
At 26 years of age, Banks isn’t much of a prospect anymore — not that he ever was. The Nationals expressed their feelings for him by choosing not to protect him from last year’s Rule 5 Draft. Ultimately, no team selected him and Banks now finds himself in position to earn a promotion if/when any health issues should arise in the outfield landscape.
Nothing more than positional depth, he could work his way into a big-league lineup since 33-year-old Yadiel Hernandez is the only minor league outfielder currently on the 40-man roster. Any absence of Josh Harrison or Andrew Stevenson could pave the way for Banks to make his debut.
RHP — Steven Fuentes (1)
A very veteran-laden bullpen — at 28 years of age Austin Voth is likely the youngest member — could ultimately make things difficult for guys like Fuentes and Cate to perform their way up. The most likely scenario comes through injuries to others. With every team certain to go through at least a handful throughout the year, the idea that Fuentes could see some innings is very reasonable.
Notable
If you haven’t noticed yet, the Nationals do not have many ready-for-the-big-leagues type prospects. Even further, with the exception of Romero (having made his debut last season), Banks (No. 19) and Fuentes (No. 20) are the only names inside the Nationals top 20 to see action above High-A. In fact, of the higher ranked names, infielder Yasel Antuna (No. 3) and right-handed -pitcher Joan Adon (No. 5) likely have the soonest ETA and neither one of them have performed above Low-A ball. In the case of Antuna, who spent 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he hasn’t played competitively in three years.
The days of Juan Soto, Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom, and Luis Garcia providing excitement for the farm system are gone. You’ll have to wait until at least 2022 before any of the current top prospects make an impact.
Mets Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021
The New York Mets are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed it, here’s a look at all the teams that we have covered so far.
AL East: Red Sox — Yankees — Orioles — Blue Jays — Rays
NL East: Marlins — Braves — Phillies
Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.
BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:
1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster
2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)
3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)
4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)
5 — Full season on the MLB roster
New York Mets
Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)
LHP-Thomas Szapucki (4)
Szapucki came back from Tommy John to post some solid strikeout numbers between three levels in 2019, and was healthy in 2020 at the team’s alternate camp. He features a fastball, a sweeping slurve, and a changeup that he has been working on. There’s a strong chance he could make the rotation out of camp, but if not, he would be a good arm out of the bullpen with a fastball that can touch 95mph.
3B-Brett Baty (1)
Baty, the first-round draft pick in 2019 and the first pick at third baseman by the Mets since David Wright, was added to the 60-man roster in 2020. He has a slugger’s build at 6’3, 215 lbs and based on reports, seems to be a bat-first profile. Depending on how the Mets are doing in the standings in September, and if Baty hits in his newest assignment, he could see a few at-bats in September. Now I don’t see him lighting it up but the Mets could call him for the exposure.
RHP-Sam McWilliams (3)
The Mets got into a bidding war for McWilliams when they signed him in December 2020. The 6’7 right-hander got the attention of teams by sharing his Trackman data from the Rays alternate site and it stood out. McWilliams has touched 99 MPH and features a four-seam fastball and a slider. He, more than likely, will be a bullpen arm.
Notable:
Catcher Patrick Mazeika could get a call up at some point. The 27-year-old catcher should get the opportunity to see what he can do at the major league level. Another catcher to get to know in the system is Francisco Alvarez.
Photo Credit: Mets Insider (MLBlogs.com)
