For those returning or new to the Hobby, Topps Series 1 kicks off what is referred to as the “Flagship” release for the manufacturer’s baseball card product. There are typically two follow-up “Flagship” releases in Series 2 and Update Series that release around June and October respectively.
There’s something for everyone in a Flagship release with inserts galore, fun and rare short prints, 35th anniversary throwbacks to 1986 Topps Baseball, and all sorts of historical look backs across Topps history of baseball cards with this being the 70th anniversary of their first ever release - 1951 Topps. With all that said, the true chase in this product are the rookie cards. More on that later.
Design
Topps returns to the full border design for the first time since 2015. The full borders are nice from a colored parallel perspective as they should be immediately obvious, which hasn’t necessarily been the case in the past few years. There are diagonal slashes that cut across the card and contain the player name, position, and team logo. The main complaints from what we have seen of the mockups have been a strangely placed Rookie Gold Cup and what is expected to be hard-to-read player names. At the end of the day, until you have the card in your hand, it’s best to reserve final judgement on the design. But there has been plenty of opinions already which span the full spectrum of positive to negative, with negative seeming to be the leader in the clubhouse.
Configurations
You will find two hobby configurations, regular hobby and hobby jumbo, and likely all of the standard retails formats with blasters, tins, hangars, fat packs, etc. At the time of writing this, regular hobby boxes are in the $100 - $150 range while hobby jumbos are in the $235 - $275 range. Regular hobby will guarantee you one auto OR relic plus a silver pack (chrome 35th anniversary cards), while the hobby jumbos will guarantee you one auto and two relics plus two silver packs.
The Main Attraction
As previously mentioned, the main attraction and most sought after cards by the general collecting public are the rookie cards. Something worth being aware of is that a player may no longer be rookie eligible in 2021, but their rookie card is in 2021 products, such as Jo Adell, Alec Bohm, etc.. Some of this has to do with Topps’ agreement with the MLBPA about when players become eligible to be put in non-prospect products and some of it has to do with the simple logistics of when a player debuts overlaid against the time it takes from the beginning of the process to when the cards hit the printers to when they hit the shelves.
Rookie Tier Breakdown
I have broken up the rookie class of 2021 Topps Series 1 into four tiers of where I see hobby interest long term and included my thoughts on each. Short term hype trains will probably deviate from this breakdown, but rather than try and predict that day trading speculation, I prefer to take the long view. Also, keep in mind that sometimes real life baseball value, fantasy baseball value, and hobby value intersect, and at other times diverge wildly.
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that wont end up as designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top end power, three true outcomes players, may be great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite. High end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short term hobby interest, and most likely long term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, defense first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Tier 1
Alec Bohm - Phillies - The star of the show. A bit of an unexpected call-up, the jewel of the Phillies system absolutely shined in his debut season. I am trying to contain my own excitement when evaluating him, but simply start with looking at his statcast in 2020. Red is best, and blue is bad, and there isn’t a shade of blue to be found. He seems to have proven that he can stick at third base, which was a question coming out of college. The only negative argument I can see is maybe he traded some power for contact as he only hit four home runs in 44 games in 2020. However, I think that ratio will improve to the tune of 30+ over a full season. The hype is there, the strong 2020 is there, the talent is there, and the Phillies should have a strong offense for him to benefit from.
Tier 2
Cristian Pache - Braves - There are plenty of people that will argue that Pache should be in Tier 1, and I can see their side of the argument. I was there as well at one point and definitely felt at the time that the Andruw Jones comp was an achievable one. The youth is on his side, but I still have some concerns on being able to unlock the hit and power tools that his talent suggests. If he can get on base enough, figure out how to use his speed effectively, and hit 25+ home runs, those doubts go away in an instant. He will get all the chances in the world to prove me wrong as his defense will keep him in the lineup for the foreseeable future.
Jo Adell - Angels - Had a very rough 2020, and that may be an understatement, which has put a damper on his hobby attraction. There are still plenty of believers in the talent which is why he lands in tier 2, but he could easily be much lower if we were just looking at 2020. If he does figure it out the hit tool, watch out, as he has the oh so sexy power/speed combo.
Dylan Carlson - Cardinals - The Cardinals had one of the tougher 2020 seasons due to COVID, so it’s easy to write off the poor showing Carlson had in his up and down debut year. There are a lot of collectors that seem to have been and still are “in” on Carlson, which lines up with real life and fantasy baseball valuations. He does everything well, with his hit tool likely his strongest of any of them, but none of them are at an elite level. If he had a strong 2020 stat-line, hobby interest alone would have pushed him into Tier 1, but since it did not, I feel like he is where he should be in Tier 2.
Ryan Mountcastle - Orioles - A super strong debut has vaulted Mountcastle into the Tier 2 conversation. His biggest challenge will likely be finding a place on the diamond to play, but he could reach 30+ home runs with full playing time and home games at Oriole Park. If he does hit that ceiling, the hype train will be in full effect.
Bobby Dalbec - Red Sox - Some good hobby profile aspects with Dalbec. Power bat that smashes fastballs on a team with a strong collecting fan base. Some DH risk with Casas waiting in the wings that could struggle at times due to his three true outcomes approach. Card collectors dig the long ball, which allows Dalbec to slide into the bottom of Tier 2.
Luis Garcia - Nationals - One of the younger players to debut in 2020, the surprising call-up for the Nats more than held his own. He has some power, but needs to figure out how to unlock it in-game. A valuable everyday regular that played well in his debut season on a team with one of the best young players in the game slides Garcia into the bottom of Tier 2.
Sixto Sanchez - Marlins - A pitching prospect who came up mid-season and exceeded most expectations, there will be a lot of momentum behind collecting his cards. At least, as much as there can be for a pitcher.
Ian Anderson - Braves - Mid rotation SP profile that had a very successful debut which has many believing that he could exceed that prediction. I still don’t think he can be a true Ace, but it’s hard to argue with how well he did in 2020 which pushes him into Tier 2 for me.
Brady Singer - Royals - Needs another pitch which led me to consider pushing him down to Tier 3, but he showed enough success in 2020 to be at the bottom of Tier 2 for now.
Casey Mize - Tigers - A poor debut season coupled with some past injury history may have people out on Mize. But the former number one overall pick has the pedigree and skill set to be a potential ace. If he had the stat-line performance of Ian Anderson or Sixto Sanchez, Mize would be close to the top of this tier and in consideration for Tier 1.
Tier 3
Daulton Varsho - Diamondbacks - With only eight games out of his 37 played in 2020 in the crouch behind the plate, collectors hope that ratio sticks or gets even more lopsided. Did not impress much in those 37 games; couple that with his contact/speed profile leads to a less than bright hobby future.
Joey Bart - Giants - A catcher with power who showed he wasn’t ready for how big league pitching would exploit his upright hitting stance in 2020 has somewhat dimmed his hobby outlook. Still with his prospect pedigree, there likely will be a fair amount of interest in his rookie cards.
Deivi Garcia - Yankees - Plays for the right team, but he’s a pitcher and has some future bullpen risk on top of that. Likely will draw some hobby interest, but there are better pitchers to chase in this product if that’s your thing.
Andres Gimenez - Mets (traded to Indians) - Glove and Speed profile that was traded to a less desirable team from a hobby perspective kills pretty much any interest there may have been with his cards.
Isaac Paredes - Tigers - A somewhat surprising call-up in 2020, he has a nice real MLB as well as fantasy profile, but no standout offensive tool that will drive hobby interest.
Tarik Skubal - Tigers - Along with Paredes, a surprising Tigers call-up in 2020 that struggled in his first taste of the bigs. It seems unlikely he has ace potential unless one or two of his secondaries takes a big step forward.
Nate Pearson - Blue Jays - A pitcher on a lesser collected team that has been treated with kid gloves due to health concerns coupled with a less than stellar debut and bullpen risk is not exactly hobby bingo, even with the eye-popping velocity.
Monte Harrison - Marlins - So many raw materials with raw power, speed, fielding, and arm that it’s hard not to keep dreaming of Harrison's potential. However the swing and miss tendencies and his dismal 2020 MLB debut prevent him from being in a higher tier, while everything else keeps him from dropping into Tier None.
Anderson Tejeda - Rangers - Held his own in a small sample in his debut and continued to play well in Winter League. Someone to monitor to see if the hit tool gains are real.
Evan White - Mariners - A truly baffling debut season that really does not look good at a surface level. Exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage all looked great, but it doesn’t really matter if you can’t get the bat on the ball. Hopefully his first season is the floor, but until he shows otherwise, he is mired in Tier 3.
Tyler Stephenson - Reds - If he wasn’t a catcher, he could be a consideration for the bottom range of Tier 2. Above average hit tool coupled with above average power, even if it isn’t game power yet, in a hitter friendly park is interesting to say the least.
Cristian Javier - Astros - A relatively successful debut pushes Javier into Tier 3, but it is muted interest as he is not a strikeout pitcher and could easily end up as a mid-rotation starter or a long reliever/spot starter.
Nick Madrigal - White Sox - A bat only player typically doesn’t draw much hobby love outside of the most extreme of cases like Tony Gwynn. Perhaps in 10 years we start comparing Madrigal to Gwynn, but we’ll revisit this topic then and likely not before.
Luis Patino - Padres (traded to Rays) - Big time hype sleeper pitching prospect prior to the 2020 season was a bit surprisingly called up for his debut in 2020. Roughed up with a high walk rate was definitely not what we were expecting, so even with the potential high upside starting pitcher projection, the tough 2020 keeps him in Tier 3 for me.
Dane Dunning - White Sox (traded to Rangers) - A decent debut in 2020 kicks Dunning up into the back end of Tier 3, but he profiles as a 4/5 starter which isn’t very enticing.
Kris Bubic - Royals - An average debut for what is likely a mid to back end rotation piece isn’t that interesting, but he did get some buzz with his surprise call up which kicks him into the lower end of Tier 3.
Spencer Howard - Phillies - Inconsistent debut in 2020 for the highly touted Phillies pitching prospect. Stat line did not look good, and finished the year on the IL with shoulder stiffness keeps his interest depressed.
Keibert Ruiz - Dodgers - A hit first catcher that doesn’t offer much more, but is on one of the more desirable teams in the hobby keeps him in Tier 3.
Leody Taveras - Rangers - Speed and Defense are not in question for the young Rangers outfielder. The main question is if he can turn his above average raw power into game power and make good enough contact to continue to get every day looks. His 2020 debut really didn’t answer that question positively.
Jesus Sanchez - Marlins - In a very small sample, Sanchez did not do well. He has the desired bat speed and raw power that attracts collectors, but he doesn’t seem to be proficient at getting the ball in the air. A player that hits the ball as hard as Sanchez does is worthy of tracking, but he needs additional development before grabbing more hobby interest.
Triston McKenzie - Indians - A really nice debut in 2020, but long term concerns with health and consistency give him a mid rotation starter profile. There are likely some people that will be backers of Sticks, but I find it hard to move him up a Tier until we see him put a relatively full season together.
Tier None
Edward Olivares - Royals - Speed with some pop, but nothing to write home about and hovers around the fourth outfielder role
David Peterson - Mets - Pitched reasonably well in his debut season for a team with strong collecting interest, but he probably isn’t more than a mid-rotation starter which does not equate with hobby desirability.
Albert Abreu - Yankees - Top team to collect, but he’s a pitcher with command issues that isn’t likely to be a rotation piece. No interest.
Daniel Johnson - Indians - A brief and unsuccessful introduction to the big leagues in 2020, unless he can get to his raw power in game on a regular basis which seems less and less likely, there isn’t much here to interest the hobby.
Ryan Castellani - Rockies - Back-end spot starter or bullpen role with no standout talent.
Nick Heath - Royals - Speed merchant center fielder with no power to speak of that isn’t getting any younger
Beau Burrows - Tigers - Middle to Long Reliever with not even a sniff of a save in his future. Hard pass.
Humberto Mejia - Diamondbacks - Back-end rotation piece that could easily end up in the pen does not drive any hobby interest
Kodi Whitley - Cardinals - Bullpen profile that may hit on some saves at some point, but not much here.
James Kaprielian - Athletics - Snake-bit by injuries is never something you want to see associated with a pitcher. Likely getting the kid gloves treatment and ticketed for a bullpen role to maintain his health.
Brandon Bielak - Astros - Potential back-end starter who did not pitch well in his debut season equals zero interest
Chadwick Tromp - Giants - Backup catcher profile. Enough said.
Blake Taylor - Astros - Two pitch relief pitcher - no thanks.
Santiago Espinal - Blue Jays - An end of the roster role player that’s more glove and positional flexibility than bat. No interest.
Mitch White - Dodgers - Back end starter/middle reliever long term that doesn’t tick the hobby boxes.
Codi Heuer - White Sox - Bullpen arm that could potentially get into a high leverage role at some point in his career, but nothing really to see here.
Nick Neidert - Marlins - Tier None - back-end rotation piece that debuted pitching out of the bullpen in low leverage situations. Moving on.
Eddy Alvarez - Marlins - Tier None - debuted as a 30 year-old utility infielder with not much to show for it. Hard to be less interested. I guess if he was a pitcher.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 2021 Topps Series 2 Base Rookie Card
Final Thoughts
Prior to the checklist coming out, I was pretty hyped on the rookie class. Without Ke’Bryan Hayes to go with Alec Bohm in Tier 1, Alex Kirilloff to bolster Tier 2, and digging in more to the rookies on the checklist, my excitement has been tempered. Hayes does have autographs in Series 1, but his base rookie cards, the primary chase for any Flagship rookie cards, will be found in Series 2. The goal is to end up with at least two Tier 1 players with base rookie cards in a flagship product, and ideally three to four as this will backstop a product when the Tier 1 players don’t succeed and the lower tier players don’t step into the gap. While Adell, Pache, Carlson, and perhaps Mountcastle could step into that Tier 1 status long term, at the moment I have concerns that they will be able to do so.
For more info on the overall checklist, team set breakdowns, inserts, etc., go check out Ryan Cracknell’s Product Details over at Beckett.