Orioles Prospects Likely to Debut in 2021

The Baltimore Orioles are next on our Players Likely to Debut series. In case you missed the previous two installments, the AL East is being rolled out this week. Here’s a look back at where it all started.

AL East: Red Sox — Yankees

Below, you will find a list of three prospects from the respective organization. Each prospect will have a number score next to their name — this number will represent the estimated amount of time we anticipate that player seeing at the big-league level. Players that have already made their big-league debut will not be included on this list.

BREAKDOWN OF TIME ON ROSTER SCORES:

1 — September call-ups / guys that are likely to see less than 20-25 games on the roster

2 — 1/4 of the season (roughly 40 games on roster)

3 — 1/2 of the season (roughly 80 games on roster)

4 — 3/4 of the season (roughly 120 games on roster)

5 — Full season on the MLB roster

Baltimore Orioles

Position — Name (Time on Roster Score)

Given their recent struggles, you could make a significant case that the Orioles should have way more than three prospects likely to make their MLB debut. However, for simplicity sake, here’s a look at three players that you should see at some point during the 2021 campaign.

RHP — Michael Baumann (3)

It should comes as no surprise to see Baumann’s name on this list. For starters, he is very highly regarded among many of us at Prospects Live and he inspired the first-ever Prospects Live Love Story, sorry Jason Kamlowsky.

Entering his age-25 season, the right-hander has proven himself throughout his time in the minors and has little left to prove. He’s pitched 297 innings in the Baltimore organization since being drafted in the third round of the 2017 MLB Draft. Unlikely to blow hitters away, much of his success can be attributed to his ability to inducing ground balls and keep the ball in the park.

Only four pitchers have thrown more minor league innings over the last three seasons (2017-2019) and allowed fewer home runs than the 15 that Baumann has surrendered. Their names? Matt Manning, Tucker Davidson, Daniel Tillo, and Nick Nelson. While Baltimore likely waits until May to call him up, Baumann should soon be reunited with his college teammate at Jacksonville, Austin Hays.

OF — Yusniel Diaz (4)

This is the moment that I admit that I was wrong about one thing. A couple of years ago we published our Bold Predictions for the 2019 season, I announced that Diaz was going to outlast Vladimir Guerrero Jr and win the AL Rookie of the Year. I was way off. Fast forward a bit and here we are again. No, he won’t win the ROY award in 2021, but he will give Orioles fans something to cheer about.

"I think he's somebody who could be able to help us in all three outfield spots."

When will Orioles prospect Yusniel Diaz debut? pic.twitter.com/M65gNaQJHt

— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) January 8, 2021

LHP — Zac Lowther (2)

Having been drafted one round ahead of Baumann in 2017, Lowther has operated well under-the-radar in the Orioles system. Coming in at No. 20 on our list of 2021 Baltimore Orioles prospects, the left-hander turns 25 years old shortly after Opening Day. He doesn’t have huge upside but the Orioles could benefit from bringing him up for a spot start or two to see what he can do against big-league bats. In 326 innings pitched he’s posted a 2.26 ERA while striking out 380 batters. Like the aforementioned Baumann, his ability to keep the ball in the park — only 17 home runs allowed — could be a boost in the rotation or in the bullpen given the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, and entire AL East for that matter.

Notable

You may have noticed that DL Hall was not mentioned above, he could have easily been included on this list. He’s currently not on the 40-man roster and with his high-upside, it may not be in the club’s best interest to get the service-time clock going just yet. I do expect to see him this season, but do’t expect it to be more than a late-season ‘let’s see what we have heading into next year’ type of situation.

Tyler Nevin and Rylan Bannon are names to keep an eye on as well. Although Rio Ruiz has shown some reverse splits, faring better against lefties than righties, but given his poor overall batted-ball profile don’t be surprised to see the left-hander lose some at-bats to either one of these right-handed hitting infielders.

Big League Debut: Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles placed 1B Chris Davis on the IL and called up 1B/LF prospect Ryan Mountcastle from alternate camp to make his debut. It’s been a long time coming for Mountcastle as he’s been consistently productive the last few seasons while the Orioles have been playing inferior hitters for financial reasons. Credit to him for not letting it affect his performance as he slashed .312/.344/.527 for Triple-A Norfolk, which was good enough to take home the 2019 International League Most Valuable Player Award. He’s hit .281 or better in every full minor league campaign and he was able to take his power to another level in 2019.

THE RANKINGS

Mountcastle ranked 4th on the Baltimore Orioles Top 30 list and 124th in our Top 500 Fantasy list.

He’s arrived. pic.twitter.com/yEVypAMiSN

— Baltimore Orioles 😷 (@Orioles) August 21, 2020

THE TOOLS

Hit (50 present/55 future): As I mentioned above, Mountcastle has been very productive since the Orioles drafted him 36th overall in the 2015 draft as he’s made several minor league all-star teams in addition to taking home the MVP award in 2019. It’s a simple, upright stance for Mountcastle. He controls the barrel extremely well and keeps it in the zone. He’s posted consistent contact rates between 75% and 83% at every stop. His approach is a problem, and not many players have success with a 4.3% walk rate, so he will have to curb his swing happy tendencies to be more than a 2-3 win player consistently. His swing happy ways do keep his strikeout rate down, but he did strikeout at a 23.5% rate last year, representing a career-high for him. With a better approach, his strikeout rates will jump to around 25-28%, but with this ability to find the barrel he will hit for a strong average. I see him topping out somewhere around .275 in the bigs, but that will come with an OBP around .310-.315, limiting the ceiling.

Power (50 game/60 raw): The Orioles farmhand found his power stroke in 2019, blasting a career-high 25 homers and also chipping in 35 doubles. Most of his power comes from his large six-foot-three frame, but he’s also done some work over the last few years optimizing his bath path to add loft. The new changes have worked and the newly found power appears to be enough to make him a big-league regular even as he quickly tumbles down the defensive spectrum. Mountcastle will settle in at around 25-30 homers at peak. The Orioles are working with him to be more patient but also mindful that being aggressive will always be a part of his game.

First hit alert 🚨 pic.twitter.com/Nx4yVNIIIT

— Baltimore Orioles 😷 (@Orioles) August 23, 2020

Defense/Arm (40/30): Mountcastle exclusively played shortstop for his first three professional seasons and then moved to third base. Playing on the left side of the infield was a poor fit for his arm, which is both inaccurate and lacks carry. He began playing some first base and left field for the first time in 2019, and he’s relatively inexperienced at each of those positions. He likely fits best at first base, as his arm will still be an issue in left.

Speed (40/30): Mountcastle has stolen four bases over the last two seasons worth on minor league games, so don’t be expecting anything here. He’s mobile enough to play left field, but as mentioned above mobility isn’t the concern with his defensive profile.

PREDICTION

He should play every day for the Orioles, batting 5th or 6th and splitting his time between left field and first base. He was the second-best hitting prospect in their system, behind Adley Rutschman, and I expect him to hit the ground running offensively. It will be interesting to see how pitchers attack his swing heavy tendencies, and he could be a streaky offensive player due to the approach. He could put up similar numbers as Randal Grichuk, who is a player with similar approach issues. Grichuk walks more but Mountcastle makes more contact.

FANTASY IMPACT

First base is a shockingly thin position in fantasy, so I think Mountcastle should be picked up in all 12+ team leagues as a nice CI option. He’s going to hit in the middle of a big-league lineup that is performing, so there’s a chance for good counting numbers. Downgrade Mountcastle in OBP formats though. I’ll make the distinction that he should be owned in 12 team standard 5x5 leagues, but it would take a 15-team league in OBP formats to make him a regular part of the lineup.

Big League Debut: Richie Martin, Baltimore Orioles

Martin was the first pick in the 2018 Rule Five Draft, and will be the Orioles primary shortstop for the beginning of 2019. The Orioles plucked Martin from the Athletics, where he was their first round pick in 2015 going 20th overall out of the University of Florida. He was a steady college performer that was known for his defense and speed, and he went 45-for-52 on the bases while on campus. He did flash a hit tool at times when he led the Cape with a record .364 average in 2014. The defense has translated thus far in his pro career, but until 2018 the offense lagged behind considerably. While repeating Double-A last year in Midland, Martin put together the best offensive season of his professional career, hitting .300/.368/.439 with career high totals in homers (six) and steals (25).

THE RANKINGS

Richie Martin is ranked number seven on Ralph Lifshitz’s Baltimore Orioles top 30 list.

THE TOOLS

Defense (60 Field/60 Arm): Defense is Martin’s calling card. His plus speed combined with lightning quick first step give him plus range, and that range paired with his plus arm allow him to make all the plays at the six. The glove at short will buy him more time for the bat to develop, and even if it doesn’t come around there’s enough here to carve out a career as a utility man. He did play some second base last year in an effort to expand his portfolio.

Power (30 Game/40 Raw): Martin set a new career high for homers in a season last year with six while repeating Double-A Midland, so there isn’t much over-the-fence thump here. Most of Martin’s extra-base hits will come from splitting the gaps or using his feet. In addition to the six homers, Martin set personal highs with 29 doubles and eight triples. He made more consistent hard contact last season, but his extreme groundball profile limits the upside. His last three stops in the minors have resulted in groundball percentages of 64%, 62% and 57%. Expecting more than ten homers a year from Martin might be a fruitless exercise, but he did drive the ball further last season after he re-worked his swing and swapped out his toe-tap for a leg kick.

Hit (40 Present/50 Future): Martin has done an excellent job of making consistent contact throughout his career and his strikeout rates should settle around 18-22% at peak. Martin credits a lot of his offensive breakout last season due to eye strengthening exercises and improved vision due to new contact lenses. The focus for Martin and the Orioles will be turning that high rate of contact into more quality contact.

Speed (60 Present/60 Future): Martin is a plus runner and it shows on both sides of the ball. How much his speed plays will be directly correlated to how much he gets on base and if the offensive improvements translate to the big leagues. At peak he could steal 15-20 bases.

Prediction: Martin is a worthwhile gamble for the Orioles and is exactly the type of player they should roll the dice on in a non-competitive season. The Orioles are looking to see if they can develop a role player like Martin into a second division regular. He’s a low upside player but his defensive skills alone can be worthy of a roster spot for the next half-dozen years. If his offensive game continues to grow then that’s a massive win for Martin and the Orioles.