Before the next major Bowman release, 2021 Bowman Baseball, drops in April and as we get rolling with Spring Training, I wanted to take a look at some Bowman 1st cards and whether I would be buying, holding, or selling.
The first thing I did was take a look at the top 100 players listed in the Prospects Live Top 500 Dynasty Prospects for Fantasy as that is the most recent overall prospect list on the site. From there I ran two filters on the awesome archetypes feature - one on the players with the Big Power archetype, and one on the players with Power+Speed archetype. Finally I ran the most recent sales for the past month (February) and only included players with Bowman 1st base autos going for $100 or less. I feel like this threshold provides the most valuable information for the most amount of collectors, but by all means don’t hesitate to reach out to me if you have questions about players not in this article.
Big Power
(Top 500 rank, Team, ETA, Bowman 1st Base Auto Price Range)
Trevor Larnach (23, Twins, Mid 2021, $40 - $60) - He is a high OBP guy with an easy 30+ home runs in his bat. At this price point, I will take that all day long. The only skills question with Larnach has been his defense and I guess he really isn’t going to get stolen bases. Situationally, there are also a few other negatives to be aware of. The Twins aren’t a very collectable team for one. He is also not yet on the 40-man roster and Kirilloff will be getting the main opportunity for unclaimed at bats in Minnesota in the short term. But given Buxton’s and Sano’s injury history along with Cruz’s age all potentially opening up at bats in the Twins lineup and coupling that with Larnach being able to smash bombs on arrival, I could easily see his cards doubling on a positive debut. Recommendation: Buy
Brennen Davis (24, Cubs, Late 2023, $75 - $100) - The all-around talent and a strong Cubs collector base are very good positives for Davis. On the other hand, he faces a couple of challenges from a hobby perspective. His ETA is still a few years out, so you may have to wait a while for significant price appreciation, and his price point is already on the higher side of the equation. More importantly, he is one of the prospects that did not get an auto with the “1st” logo. His Bowman 1st Base card is in 2018 Bowman Draft, while the first time he has a Bowman auto (without the 1st logo) was in 2020 Bowman Baseball. This devalues the autographed card to a certain extent - if I were buying, I would be going after his 2018 chrome refractors, but he’s a hold for me with no move to acquire more until we get a better feel for him in 2021. Recommendation: Hold to Sell on any price increases (especially for the auto)
Nolan Gorman (32, Cardinals, Late 2022, $75 - $100) - The second ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, he has 40 home run power in his bat. The main question with him is playing time as he is blocked at both infield corners on the Cardinals big league roster, which likely pushes any substantial MLB playing time into 2022 barring injuries. Even at the higher price point of players we are looking at, I am betting he is very undervalued. Recommendation: Strong Buy
Nolan Jones (46, Indians, Late 2021, $50 - $100) - The top ranked Indians prospect has plenty of opportunities on an ever increasingly barren MLB roster and he is on the 40-man roster. Add in four corner positional flexibility and I don’t see how he doesn’t debut in 2021. Even with big power, not sure he can get to more than 30 home runs unless he improves against left-handed pitching. Given his current price point and less than ideal hobby team context, I would be hesitant to jump in with both feet and would be ready to sell on any positive news, especially around his debut. Recommendation: Hold to Sell on any price increases
Oneil Cruz (54, Pirates, Late 2021, $40 - $60) - The Pirates number 3 prospect is one of the tallest hitters in the prospect arena, which scares me with how much he may be exploited by major league pitchers. He’s got the power, but will he hit enough to get to it? I’d rather not be the one to take that risk and speculate elsewhere. One side note is that his 1st Bowman card (from 2016 Bowman Chrome), his name is slightly different if you are searching listings for him - it is "Oneal Cruz". Recommendation: Sell
Ryan Mountcastle (62, Orioles, Late 2020, $60 - $120) - The Orioles brought Mountcastle for half the shortened 2020 season and he absolutely showed out. Given his home park as well as other parks in his division, I can see him getting to 30 home runs. I am slightly concerned in the short term he may get exposed now that MLB pitchers have a book on him. The Orioles also have a ton of bats, so playing time might not be quite full time. If you can get him at the bottom of this price range, then I think it’s worth a pickup. Recommendation: Bargain Hunting Buy
Erick Pena (67, Royals, Mid 2024, $90 - $150) - Just barely qualifying with the bottom end of his price range under $100, it’s tough for me to buy in at this price point. He is so young and raw with so many unknowns, I would rather allocate funds elsewhere, even with Pena’s tantalizing array of talents. But I am closely monitoring his 2021 as I would hate to miss the boat at what may be his cheapest price point. Recommendation: Sell
Josh Lowe (75, Rays, Late 2021, $10 - $25) - One of the cheapest players in this list, the price point almost automatically makes it an auto buy. The main concern is the hit tool, but if he can get the playing time, always a question with Tampa Bay, to pop 30+ home runs he should easily return a profit at current prices. Recommendation: Buy
Gunnar Henderson (77, Orioles, Mid 2023, $40 - $60) - This surprised me a bit all around - I was a bit out of the loop on Henderson other than seeing everyone chasing Adley in 2019 Bowman Draft drafting Orioles in breaks and then being disappointed when ending up with Henderson cards. His athletic skill set seems to be playing above expectations, but we still have him pegged as just an everyday regular. With that in mind in conjunction with his price point, I don’t see a ton of upside outside of maybe a few spike moments with his debut and the like. Recommendation: Sell
Peyton Burdick (83, Marlins, Mid 2022, $25 - $40) - I may be a bit irrational when it comes to Burdick as he still needs to prove his hit tool will be able to keep up enough with his prodigious power, but at this price point, I am willing to take that risk. Give me all the Burdick. Recommendation: Buy
Austin Wells (85, Yankees, Late 2023, $80 - $100) - Above average hit and power tools plus the number one team in the hobby to collect should make this an attractive buy, but if the Yankees insist on keeping him at the catcher position, it caps his hobby value. I would buy if his price point was half of what it is at this current juncture, but I will still hold in the hope that he gets pushed to a different position. Recommendation: Hold
Lewin Diaz (87, Marlins, Late 2020, $5 - $20) Diaz got 14 games at the MLB level in 2020 and it did not go well to say the least. As the future first baseman of the future and not much in the system to really take that from him, the playing time plus the positive skill set across the board led by his power and the current price point makes this a cheap buy. Not really confident it can get to the $100+ level, but I think there is definite upside here. Recommendation: Buy While Cheap
Bobby Dalbec (96, Red Sox, Late 2020, $60 - $90) - The Red Sox number 4 prospect debuted in 2020 and went yard 8 times in 23 games. While that looks great, he also had a 42% strikeout rate, speaking strongly to his 3 true outcome profile. Dude could easily hit 30 to 40 home runs with full playing time in the homer friendly AL East while still striking out over 200 times. 40 home run power is what we are looking for in the hobby and playing for an attractive hobby team makes his cards hard to ignore. The swing and miss risk and being in the higher end of this price range we are looking at makes me tap the brakes a bit. Recommendation: Cautious Buy, more willing Buy at the bottom of the price range
Sherten Apostel (99, Rangers, Late 2020, $30 - $40) - Apostel’s biggest concern is getting playing time because of his defensive shortcomings. Listed as a third baseman, I think the Rangers are more positive about Josh Jung getting run there. Apostel could slide over to first base, but the Rangers just traded for Nate Lowe and I imagine Lowe is going to get a fair amount of opportunity to show if he can be an every day player at first. Sherten has above average power and hit tools, so there is something to dream on here, but until more opportunity or positive development trends are seen, there isn’t enough here for me to pull the trigger. I’m not selling as there are definitely positive outcomes to drive the price higher, but I’m not buying either given the high risk/reward with Apostel because I think I can find better bets elsewhere. Recommendation: Hold
Power+Speed
Drew Waters (28, Braves, Mid 2021, $60 - $100) - If Waters can figure out how to hit left-handed pitching and not end up being platooned, he can easily justify his current prospect card prices. If he ends up being the strong side platoon in the vein of Joc Pederson, I don’t think there is much upside left in his card prices given the current price range. Recommendation: Hold, or Sell if you can get top dollar
Brandon Marsh (37, Angels, Mid 2021, $30 - $60) - The number one Angels prospect, he’s a five-tool prospect that should be able to fill up all the categories. On the 40-man roster, I can’t imagine Dexter Fowler has enough left to prevent Marsh from kicking down the door of the majors this year. I am relatively bullish on Marsh, but his prospect cards are artificially capped because, similar to Brennen Davis, Marsh had his 1st Bowman base card in 2017 Bowman and his first autograph with no “1st” logo in 2018 Bowman Chrome. In these scenarios, I prefer to focus on the base card, but even more, I prefer to wait for the rookie cards to spend my money on. However, given the low price of his cards at the moment, I’m buying. Recommendation: Buy
Jeter Downs (43, Red Sox, Mid 2021, $50 - $90) - No real weaknesses, but no standout tools. Does everything well and is the heir apparent to Dustin Pedroia on a team that has a lot of Hobby interest. If his price point was lower, I would be looking to get some shares, but at the current price range, I prefer to hold and sell on hopefully a strong debut. Recommendation: Hold
Heliot Ramos (50, Giants, Mid 2022, $50 - $80) - Likely still needs development on the hit tool side, and there isn’t a standout tool, but he does everything else well. An above average everyday regular, he’s likely not an all-star who doesn’t have the advantage of playing in a power hitter’s park which will cap his home runs around the 30 mark at his peak. Add to the fact that the Giants have a ton of interesting outfielders in the pipeline and there’s just not enough here to expect a significant jump from his current card prices to future card prices. Recommendation: Sell
Hunter Bishop (55, Giants, Early 2023, $50 - $100) - Bishop has come down off his highs when his 1st Bowman cards were hitting the scene in 2019 Bowman Draft and going for double what you can pick them up for now. He did not get much alternate site run in 2020 due to positive Coronavirus tests, but he never felt the physical effects of it, so there is that silver lining. He has the 30 - 40 home run power potential you look for, but his home park depresses that and there are still lingering questions about his hit tool. 2021 will be his first full minor league season, and I can easily see him jumping back into his previous price points assuming he has put the work in on his hit tool. Recommendation: Cautious Buy at the lower end of his price range
Jazz Chisholm (58, Marlins, Late 2020, $30 - $50) - Did not do much positive in his surprising 21-game debut in 2020 which has kept his card prices affordable. A high strikeout potential, but he should be able to reach that 30 home run threshold in peak seasons at a premium position. If I can pick him up for under $50, I don’t mind it, but I wouldn’t want to go much higher than that. Recommendation: Cautious Buy
Jarren Duran (97, Red Sox, Mid 2021, $65 - $100) - Speed has never been the question with Duran, and a swing change has unlocked his power, which was in question until recently. If that power spike is real, he has a good chance to justify his current price point, especially on a highly collectible team. But I think all the money is almost already all there unless you can pick it up at the bottom of the range. I’d rather speculate elsewhere. Recommendation: Hold, or Sell if you can get the top of his price range
Anyone else?
Josh Jung (45, Rangers, Early 2022, $115 - $150) I’m cheating a bit here with the price point, but I like Jung a lot. There haven’t been many sales recently, but once we hit the end of January and positive news started to leak out on Josh Jung, his cards rose above the $100 threshold. If I could pick him up for under $100, I would be buying. I have a feeling he takes over the third base job sooner rather than later in Texas and I think he will eventually find 25+ home runs as a big leaguer with a decent shot at clearing the 30 threshold when at his peak. But anything over $100 leaves me wondering how much long term increase we could see. Recommendation: Bargain Hunt Buy
Corbin Carroll (11, Diamondbacks, Mid 2023, $75 - $90) - the top Diamondbacks prospect and 11th overall prospect in the Top 500 Dynasty list has seen his card prices climb to just north of $100 once we hit the new year, but drift back below the cutoff in the past month with no real news to drive it. He literally hits every other positive archetype but the two above - Hit Tool, Speedster, OBP Bump, and Safe Floor. If I am going to take a shot on any player that doesn’t have the power tool in his arsenal, seeing all of those other tools stacked up is reassuring. I try to be cautious with Carroll because I understand how much stock the hobby puts into home runs, but I find it hard not to be excited about Carroll’s future potential in all aspects - real life baseball, fantasy baseball, and baseball cards. Recommend: Buy to Strong Buy
Final Thoughts
As I always say, prospects are the most volatile cards in the hobby. What’s true today can easily be turned on its head tomorrow and you have to be prepared to sell, buy, or hold as the news happens, evaluations change, and the overall market goes up and down.
No stock picker is ever 100% right and I will guarantee you that I won’t end up close to 100% right here either. Use my thoughts, prospect evaluations, and other hobby experts to inform your non-personal collection buying habits, but most importantly do your own homework. And always base your buy, sell, and hold decisions using a hobby perspective because while real life baseball and fantasy baseball should aid you in where you spend your baseball card budget, never forget that the hobby digs the long ball.