Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NYY | RHP | 10 | 45 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | CH | Cnt/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 40 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 45/40 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Geoff Pontes
Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2015 IFA
RuleV: On 40-Man Roster
Physical Description: Long legs and high waist make Medina look taller than his listed 6-1. Similar build to the Mariners Justin Dunn. Room for positive projection and added strength. Long arms and slopped shoulders. Prototypical pitchers body.
Mechanics: Upright operation with loose and free arm, and at times, his lower half. His somewhat crossfire delivery from a high three quarters leads to strike throwing issues. Significant timing issues despite simplistic operation. An adjustment to his arm action was made mid-2019 that resulted in a strong second half.
Fastball: High octane offering at 95-97 mph on average, sitting 96.3 mph. Average spin rate at 2350 with average vertical movement. Cuts his fastball some giving the pitch some action and side spin but limiting how well it plays elevated. Will touch 99-100 mph in game, so it's more than just a workout number. Struggled to command the pitch through his first 14 starts in 2019 and found his fastball+curveball command seemingly overnight in mid-July. Plus potential that plays above average at the moment. Grade: 55
Curveball: 11-7 breaking ball with two plan movement and average drop. Medina's go to secondary, and at 80-83 mph it's a bat misser. Like all of his arsenal showed significant command improvement in the second half of 2019. Tunnels off fastball well, to create a strong one two combination with a 15-20 mph velocity separation. Grade: 55
Changeup: From start to start and inning to inning this pitch's quality can drastically fluctuate. Early in the season the pitch was effective in spurts often flattening out or missing the zone badly. As his mechanical changes began to take shape the pitch would flash plus a few times an outing and by and large was an effective secondary versus left handed batters. Despite the promising developments late in 2019, the pitch's inconsistency land it in fringe-average territory with an average ceiling of changes hold. Grade: 45
Control and Command: Frankly, Medina's control and command profile is maddening. It was an easy 30 early in the season where he struggled to consistently find the zone. As his mechanical changes took shape Medina's strike throwing entered into above-average territory as he walked just 15 batters across his final 45.2 innings. The late season Medina did a good job of controlling his fastball later in the season particularly in the upper quadrants. He showed the ability to land his curveball to the lower quadrants, and his changeup to his armside. Whether or not this holds is a very real question and gives us some trepidation around his grades here. Is the 50/45 control/command arm we saw in his final the real Medina or a blip in an otherwise frustrating professional career? Control: 45 | Command: 40
Overall: Timing issues plague Medina's ultimate outcome despite a simplistic tall and fall operation. Over the first 14 starts of 2019 Medina struggled to find the zone, and when he did he was often hit hard. Over this period his operation was consistently out of sync. Around the all-star break an adjustment was made to Medina's arm action that dropped the side height over 2 inches. Through this change Medina was able to keep his arm more on time. In turn this allowed Medina to stay online with the plate while drastically improving his leg block. This in turn boosted his strike throwing tremendously. Over his first 58 innings Medina walked 55 batters. While over the final 45.2 he walked just 15. Not only did his control jump two grades over this period his stuff did too, as he added 4-5 inches of horizontal break onto his fastball in those final 8 starts. His pitch shapes were more tightly clustered too. Essentially the adjustment in Medina's slot set off a series of improvements across the board. Now the bad news - Medina's instructs data and reports look more like the first half of 2019 than the glorious end of season run. If he's able to replicate those improvements and sustain them long term then Medina will reach the lofty ceiling many have promoted over the years. However, with his pattern of inconsistency we view him as a fringe-average major leaguer with backend rotation upside. Elite stuff with pitchability concerns.
OFP: 45
Role: 40 - Spot Starter or Low Leverage Reliever
Risk: High
