Week 1 is here and along with it comes the Week 1 Stock Watch. Who caught scouts’ eyes this weekend? Who’s garnering more attention moving forward?
Kicking off "Spring" Baseball: Live Looks on Seven Draft-Eligible Arms in the Southeast
While Spring is still more than a month away on the calendars, “Spring baseball” is underway in both Florida and Georgia. The first two weeks in February have seen a number of intriguing arms take the mound in JUCO and high school action. Ergo, for this first edition of Live Looks, we will cover seven draft eligible arms in the Southeast that grabbed attention in their season debuts.
Carson Dorsey, LHP - Gulf Coast State College
Performance: 5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 0 H, 0 R
Carson Dorsey put together a stellar start for Gulf Coast State to open up the tournament, pitching five hitless innings vs. a tough San Jacinto lineup. Operating with a big arm swing, over the top armslot and exhibiting hard falloff to third base, Dorsey’s ability to throw strikes is a testament to his athletic ability. He carries his low 90s fastball very well at the top of the zone, and gets varying levels of two plane shape on a low to mid 70s curveball and high 70s slider. The Dores’ ace also flashed a changeup at 76 with fading life. A 17th round pick for the Rangers last year, scouts are still anticipating an uptick in stuff from the long and lean lefty. However, the pitchability and above average starter’s arsenal was on full display in his season opener.
Ramsey David, RHP - Northwest Florida State
Performance: 4.1 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 1 R
Ramsey David got the ball on Friday night for NWFL State and put together a strong outing for the Raiders. The physical right hander operates with tempo and has a really quick arm, moving downmound well to get the ball on hitters in a hurry. To right-handed hitters, David used a 90-94 MPH four seam fastball with good carrying life and a sweeping 79-80 MPH slider. To lefties, David went to a two seamer with good tail and similar velocity, and pitched off that with a 84-86 MPH changeup with good depth. The well-traveled (Auburn, Gordon State) 22 year old executed his plan well and even went to a quick pitch for one of his strikeouts, demonstrating some advanced pitchability that has developed over the fall in Niceville.
Christian Oppor, LHP - Gulf Coast State College
Performance: 5 IP, 9 K, 1 H, 0 R
The top JUCO prospect on our board at press time, Christian Oppor dominated a good Delgado lineup with almost nothing but fastballs over five innings. The lean and athletic left hander sat 92-96 MPH with his two seamer from a low 3Q armslot, flashing plus tailing life and touching 97 early on. Oppor flashed a solid 84 MPH changeup with late depth in the first inning, and showed a decent low 80s slider in warmups. However, 69 of his 70 pitches in game were fastballs, and all the Delgado Dolphins could muster was a single infield hit. Operating with low effort and not even needing to go to his secondary offerings, the A’s draft and follow pick put together a loud performance that is eclipsing the $225,000 that Oakland could offer him, shooting him up boards across the league into Day 1 consideration.
Francesco Capocci, RHP - Denmark HS (GA)
Francesco Capocci put together a solid outing to start off the Denmark Danes’ 2023 season, surrendering two runs over four innings of work. The UNC commit worked off an improved four seam fastball at 89-93 MPH, which seems to have exchanged some natural cut for more armside run and carry. Capocci was able to get whiffs on it up in the zone, but did have issues locating it early on. The main secondary offering was a curveball in the 75-78 MPH range with above average two plane shape. With a 6-4, 210 lb. frame straight out of central casting, Capocci moves well and has a quick arm--but the stiffness of its action may be causing the timing issues that has led to him losing his fastball release point. However, Capocci was able to quickly go to his curveball and pitch backwards off it to get the outs he needed, showing some of his strong pitching aptitude.
Tate McKee, RHP - Mt. Paran Christian HS (GA)
Tate McKee got the start for Mt. Paran in their scrimmage against Houston County, and struck out 4 batters over two innings. McKee has a long wrapping front leg that he is able to keep on time with his short arm action, which hides the ball behind his head for a substantial portion of his delivery. The 6-2 Kennesaw native worked off a 90-93 MPH fastball with good armside life, and put a bevy of batters away with his sweeping slider at 79-81. The slider has the potential to be a plus pitch for the Georgia Tech commit, who could elicit serious draft interest if he shows a good third pitch and makes velocity gains as the weather heats up.
Luke Dotson, Mt. Paran Christian HS (GA)
Coming on in relief, Luke Dotson pitched two scoreless innings against Houston County, including a strikeout of Drew Burress, one of Georgia’s best hitting prospects. The big left hander has a fairly unique drop and drive delivery, which allows him to keep his release point low on the overhead slot in which he fires his 88-92 MPH four seam fastball from. There were early command issues, but once Dotson settled in no one could touch his heater. Complementing the shallow angle of his fastball was a sweepy slider at 75-77 MPH that lacked sharpness, but was still effective when Dotson finished it at the knees. Committed to Mississippi State, Dotson’s two pitch mix feels tailor made for late relief in Starkville, but he will continue to be monitored throughout the spring for any developments in his stuff and/or command.
Andrew Dunford, Houston County HS (GA)
Andrew Dunford pitched a scoreless first inning for Houston County in their scrimmage against Mt. Paran Christian, with his fastball flummoxing hitters. The heater sat 89-92 MPH, touching 93 and possesses good running life that jams hitters on the inner third and can paint on the outer third. Dunford mixed in a few curveballs at 75-77 MPH, though the feel for spin is below average and the shape is soft. The 6-6 righty shows very strong athletic ability in his drop and drive delivery, though the maintenance of getting his long arm swing and involved lower half on time can lead to command issues. Nevertheless, athletes of this caliber at this size are viewed as great clay, and as such an eye should be kept on the Mercer commit to monitor velocity gains throughout the Spring.
AREA CODE GAME WEST SELECT: Standout Pitchers
Area Code Game West SELECT: Standout Hitters
This past weekend, Area Code Select West took place at Dodger Stadium, a two-day event featuring some of the top high school talent on the West Coast. There were two major takeaways from the weekend. Walker Buehler level tight pants were all the rage and the talent pool was absolutely loaded. One thing to know about this event in comparison to other Area Code events is this was 40 hand-selected players, the cream of the crop if you will. These are the players who stood out in comparison to their peers. This piece will end with a couple interviews with players.
The Campbell Camels. "The Nobodies From Nowhere." A Mid-Major Powerhouse.
Harnett County, North Carolina is about as rural as rural can get. It sits as a midpoint between Raleigh and Fayetteville, loaded with farmland as far as the eye can see. It's the last place you'd expect a Division I university to be situated, yet hiding in the fields by the Cape Fear River is one of the top mid-major baseball programs in the country.
How MLB Orgs Are Quantifying Deception In Their Draft Models
Baseball has been littered with new metrics over recent years and in turn, our process for understanding what makes great players has been better for it. Both at the major league and amateur scouting levels. However, quantifying things like deception within the baseball pitching landscape has long been esoteric. This is for multiple reasons; but the mystical nature of it revolves around the inability to properly define deception and associate a metric to it. Although there is some preliminary research circulating, there has been no publicly crowned method on deception. Emphasis on the PUBLIC aspect.
2023 MLB Draft - Top 300 Prospects
A new year, a new board and new ranks. The Top 300 is here. With the summer showcase circuit behind us and college fall ball in the rearview mirror, we’re ready to re-rank the 2023 draft class. Our team has taken in 9 showcase tournaments and been closely monitoring fall scrimmages. We’ve collected data and pitch metrics from guys showcasing their summer gains and, boy, do things look promising. Some guys are breaking out.
10 Powerhouse High School Teams for the 2023 Season
3 Under-the-radar College Pitchers Who "Move" Like Future big leaguers
In recent years, Major League Baseball has seen a surge of pitching prospects drafted after the first round skyrocket up prospect lists. These pitchers generally have one or two things in common. They’re either exceptional movers with considerable projection, or they’re metric darlings with outlier pitch-shaping qualities.
Why Wake Forest Will Be the Last Team Standing in Omaha
Conventional wisdom says that College Baseball’s preseason #1 pick, LSU, are the overwhelming favorites to win the CWS; and why not? After bringing in the top recruiting class of 2022, which was highlighted by SS Gavin Guidry, C Brady Neal, RHP Nigel Noot and OF Paxton Kling, they also went absolutely wild in the transfer portal, landing Freshman of the Year Tommy White from NC St, first team All-American Paul Skenes from Air Force, and coveted arms in Thatcher Hurd from UCLA and Christian Little from Vanderbilt. If that wasn’t enough, they return the potential first overall pick in the 2023 draft and Co-SEC player of the year in Dylan Crews along with star 1B Tre Morgan and pitchers Ty Floyd and Grant Taylor.
College Baseball Preseason Top 25 Rankings
The Preseason Top 25 of 2023 is upon us and the LSU Tigers stand alone atop our proverbial mountain. Jay Johnson and staff have put together a Wardaddy lineup with a stable of arms the envy of the rest of college baseball. Outfielder Dylan Crews enters the season as our Preseason Player of they Year. He’s complimented by a myriad of premium arms in Paul Skenes, Thatcher Hurd, Grant Taylor, Ty Floyd, Blake Money, Christian Little and more. Pitching depth was an issue at times in 2022 for the Tigers. That doesn’t appear to be a problem in 2023.
Tennessee is our No. 2 overall ranked team and it’s a close second. The Volunteers are headlined by elite arms headlined by our Preseason Pitcher of the Year; Chase Dollander. Mix in guys like Chase Burns, Wyatt Evans and Drew Beam and they’ll be a headache for opposing lineups. Tennessee brings a ton of wallop into their lineup this season too.
Two teams we’re rather bullish on are the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (No. 3) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 18). Both of these programs have more pitching than they know what to do with. Wake Forest also features some real offensive firepower in 1B/OF Nick Kurtz, supplemented by a stable of really nice hitters. Iowa doesn’t have quite as much thump in their lineup, but they do possess an anchor in 1B/OF Keaton Anthony. On the pitching side, Iowa may have the two pitchers with the best pure stuff in college baseball in RHP Marcus Morgan and RHP Brody Brecht. They’ve both struggled with command at times, but if they lock it in, the Hawkeyes may have two first rounders in 2024 there. True freshman Cade Obermueller has also been up to 96 this spring and has an argument to go really early next July too.
This Pirates Draft Model suggests a stunner with the No. 1 overall pick
By way of winning the first ever MLB Draft lottery, The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in far too familiar of a position. Holding the first overall pick in an MLB Draft. When Ben Cherington turns in the selection on July 9, it will mark the franchises’ sixth No. 1 overall selection. The most of any franchise in MLB history. Certainly not something owner Bob Nutting and the powers that be are looking to boast about. Could Paul Skenes be the answer?
2023 MLB Draft Preview: Georgia
As the sun sets on 2022 and we look forward to 2023, it’s time to provide an amuse-bouche to the spring ahead. Georgia has always been blessed with amateur talent on a yearly basis, and 2022 might have been the most top-loaded group in the state’s history, with four players selected in the first 15 picks of the draft. Conversely, 2023 lacks that firepower at the top, but has quite a few talents that could play their way into the first round conversation this spring. Those players, and more, will be highlighted in this pre-season top ten.
2023 MLB Draft: Big Stuff, No Command, Big Future?
In today’s game, “stuff” rules supreme. It’s a three-true-outcome meta and strikeouts are king. Organizations believe they can turn pure raw stuff into usable big league pitching no matter the command woes. Frankly, in most cases they’re correct. There will always be a threshold where “effectively wild” dissipates and a pitcher’s control becomes a liability, but by and large, teams will always take shots on guys with special arms.
Prospects Live 2023 Preseason Collegiate All-Americans
Prospects Live is back with their 2023 Preseason All-American teams leading up to their extensive 2023 college baseball coverage.
The Prospects Live Preseason All-American teams are listed below, broken down into three separate teams. We selected our Preseason All-Americans based on their production from 2022, their prospect status in terms of our MLB Draft evaluations, and 2023 expectations.
Five Super-Sleepers Who Could Go No. 1 in the 2023 MLB Draft
On New Year’s Day last year, Jackson Holliday ranked as the No. 42 overall prospect on our 2022 MLB Draft Top 300. It’s not just our board either. MLB Pipeline had Holliday the No. 52 overall prospect this time last year. The rest is history. In 2021, Henry Davis surged from a late-first round projection to going first overall. In 2020, Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad ended up going No. 2 overall, but just six months prior he was more thought to be a guy that’d go in the 25-40 range. Surely 2023 is likely to offer similar narratives.
USA Baseball Announces 2023 NHSI Lineup
The 16-team field has been unveiled for the tenth edition of the National High School Invitational, one of the more prestigious tournaments on the scouting calendar. The tournament, hosted by USA Baseball, will take place at the National Training Complex in Cary, NC and will take place from March 29 through April 1.
The Strengths and Weaknesses of Dylan Crews
For a couple years now, ever since arriving to Baton Rouge, Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews has been revered by just about everyone in the baseball industry as one of the most feared hitters on the amateur scene. A career .356 hitter with 40 homers to his name in just two seasons, Crews has put his name in the lights among some of the most impressive bats to ever bulldoze the SEC. The seemingly invincible Crews has bludgeoned pitchers with increasing authority the last two years. So how does one get him out? Is he already too advanced for college baseball? Is there a blueprint to balance the scales?
LIVE LOOKS: Northeast Fall Ball
2023 MLB Draft Spotlight: Brady Smith
As part of our offseason draft coverage, we wanted to go further in depth on draft prospects that you might not be highly aware of--even if you are a draft hound. Brady Smith has emerged into a high draft follow for area scouts covering eastern Tennessee this Spring. The right handed pitcher from Bean Station, TN put up gaudy strikeout totals during the 2022 showcase circuit, and has some of the highest breaking ball spin rates in the 2023 draft class.