This article comes to you from Nick Johnson, the newest contributor to Prospects Live.
Conventional wisdom says that College Baseball’s preseason #1 pick, LSU, are the overwhelming favorites to win the CWS; and why not? After bringing in the top recruiting class of 2022, which was highlighted by SS Gavin Guidry, C Brady Neal, RHP Nigel Noot and OF Paxton Kling, they also went absolutely wild in the transfer portal, landing Freshman of the Year Tommy White from NC St, first team All-American Paul Skenes from Air Force, and coveted arms in Thatcher Hurd from UCLA and Christian Little from Vanderbilt. If that wasn’t enough, they return the potential first overall pick in the 2023 draft and Co-SEC player of the year in Dylan Crews along with star 1B Tre Morgan and pitchers Ty Floyd and Grant Taylor.
The expectations and excitement for Jay Johnson’s club in Baton Rouge are sky high; the star power is immense, the depth, well it’s Mariana Trench deep, but the problem with conventional wisdom is that it's often just conventional and rarely wise. Entertain me for a second while I throw out another name for you; enter Wake Forest.
Not many people knew what to expect from Wake heading into the 2022 season. They had just secured their first top 15 recruiting class in program history, but faced a lot of unknowns in the new grad transfers and freshman. Ultimately, the 2022 season was a step in the right direction for the Demon Deacons (41-19-1, 15-14-1) who made their first regional since 2017. While 2022 was a good season, 2023 has the potential to be great. Very few schools return as much talent as a Wake team that had over half a dozen underclassmen representatives on Team USA or Cape Cod last summer. They bring back their entire rotation highlighted by potential first rounder and reigning ACC pitcher of the year, Rhett Lowder. The bullpen is not only more experienced, but much deeper thanks to key transfers LHP Sean Sullivan (Northwestern), RHP Michael Massey (Tulane), and RHP Cole Roland (Dartmouth). The pen is anchored by junior RHP Camden Minnaci. The offense returns a three-headed monster of CF Tommy Hawke, 1B Nick Kurtz, 3B Brock Wilken and welcomes a number of interesting transfers in C Bennett Lee (Tulane) and SS/2B Justin Johnson (Lafayette). Below I’ll break down all the impact players on the 2023 Wake team.
The Arms
As I mentioned earlier, Wake is set to return its entire rotation and it's this depth and experience that makes me a huge believer in this team. There aren’t many teams in college baseball that have 3 potential 1st rounders on their staff and now, with this much experience, they are ready to run the table.
The Starters
Rhett Lowder
The ace of the pitching staff is Friday night starter Rhett Lowder. The reigning ACC pitcher of the year is coming off an incredible sophomore season where he had a 3.08 era over 99.1 innings, fanning 105 while only walking 16. The season earned him a spot on team USA where
he threw 6.1 innings, with 5 k’s, and a 1.11 era. The 6'2 righty’s fastball sits 92-95 but runs up to 97. He pairs the fastball with two plus offspeed pitches. The changeup is considered one of the best in the class and sits 86-88 with great fade. The slider sits in the low 80’s with high spin 2700-2800. With three plus pitches that he can throw in any count, look for Lowder to be DOMINANT in 2023 and a Golden Spikes Finalist.
Teddy McGraw
Another weekend starter that continues to get better and generate draft buzz is 6’2’’ JR RHP Teddy McGraw. McGraw made big strides last season after an inconsistent freshman season where he threw 18.1 innings with 19 walks and 22 k’s. As a sophomore he jumped into the weekend rotation and threw 70.1 innings allowing 53 hits, walking 38, striking out 67 with a 4.08 era.
Like Lowder, McGraw features a 3 pitch mix. The major difference being McGraw is not as polished and at times can lose control of the zone. He features a heavy sinker that sits around 93-94 mph, but there is more in the tank. Out of the 641 fastballs thrown last year almost 1⁄3 (204) were over 95 mph and he topped out at 98. He throws his sinker for a strike at a 61% clip. Something to watch in 2023 is the strike % on his sinker. Landing it around the 65%+ mark can allow him to work ahead more, especially earlier in counts. His slider is a plus pitch that has exceeded 3000 rpm at times. He actually lands his slider for a strike more than his fastball and has an impressive 36% miss rate on the pitch.
After his collegiate season McGraw threw 11 innings for Brewster and was invited to pitch for team USA. In his lone USA appearance he earned a save against Cuba throwing 3 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit and striking out 4.
The more McGraw throws the more he continues to impress. He already has a first to second round grade, and with a dominant spring he can cement himself as a first rounder.
Josh Hartle
The third returning starter is SO 6’4’’ LHP Josh Hartle. To me Hartle is the pivotal piece to determine if Wake is going to win a National Championship.
Hartle was a monster recruit coming out of highschool. Ranked No. 74 overall prospect in the 2021 draft by Prospects Live, Hartle landed on campus with a lot of hype. The jewel of Wake’s 2021 class immediately jumped into the weekend rotation as the Saturday starter. Hartle made 14 starts tossing 69.2 innings, allowing 81 hits, with 54 strikeouts, 24 walks with a 5.30 era. The season as a whole was OK. He showed flashes of potential and was able to get a lot of ACC and Cape innings under his belt which should help his development.
Hartle has a 3 pitch mix. His fastball sits 87-89 (T92) and so far it has been his most ineffective pitch. Righties hit .319 against the fb and lefties hit .290. I asked Johnny Davis, current data and development consultant and owner of Human Performance Systems, why Hartle’s fastball was so hitable and this is what he had to say. “I plotted his whole arsenal and here’s what I found:
Wildly inconsistent fastball shape, inadvertently cutting it at times and then getting crazy two seam action on some other ones. The axis changed significantly, meaning he doesn’t have much feel for his primary pitch. There’s enough variation for me to call 25 % 4 seams, 25 % 2 seams and 25 % cutters. Ultimately, I think finding a 2 seam that takes advantage of seam shifted wake (Josh Hader esque) is the best route for him.” It’ll be really interesting to see what adjustments Hartle and the Wake staff make to make the pitch more efficient.
Hartle also features a curve and change that are devastating to lefties. Lefties only hit .080 against the curve and he did not give up a hit to lefty on a changeup.
After his season at Wake, Hartle made 4 starts for the Falmouth Commodores in the Cape League. He went 17 innings, allowing 18 hits, striking out 13, walking no one with a 2.64 era. While the era and control were impressive his stuff didn’t produce as much swing-and-miss as you’d like. It’ll be important for Hartle to find more consistency with the fastball next year if he wants to see the results expected from a census top-50 prep player just 2 years ago.
The Bullpen
Wake’s 2023 bullpen should be a massive weapon for them in 2023. This year's group has a ton of experience and the only key loss from the 2022 squad was grad transfer Gabe Golob (2.86 era over 44 IP). Elite closer Camden Minacci returns along with a group of interesting transfers in Sean Sullivan, Michael Massey, and Cole Roland. Seth Keener looks much improved after a strong summer on Cape Cod and freshman Joe Ariola and Zach Johnston are turning heads this fall. Postseason baseball is all about pitching depth and I think Wake Forest’s staff has the depth to take them to the top.
Camden Minacci
Anchoring what looks to be a strong Wake pen is Camden Minacci. The JR closer has been a staple for the Demon Deacons over the past 2 seasons allowing just 55 hits and striking out 90 over 71.2 innings of work. Primarily a two-pitch guy, he pairs a 91-93 mph fastball (T96) with a wipeout low-80s slider that he is able to work effectively both in and out of the zone. Minacci’s slider creates an 18% zWhiff and .196 zBAA, both impressive marks. His fastball has traditional four-seam characteristics and is most effective at the top of the zone, especially vs RHH where he draws 38% zWhiff. Minacci has shown an ability to be effective in multiple-inning outings so he could be a guy you see Wake turn to at the first sign of trouble once beyond the 7th to close out a game.
Sean Sullivan
A really interesting arm that the coaching staff is excited about is Northwestern transfer SO LHP Sean Sullivan. In my opinion this was one of the most under-the-radar transfers in D1. The 6’4’’ Andover, MA native burst onto the scene in 2022 as Northwestern’s Friday night starter. At school, the lefty pitched 64.2 innings, striking out 78 while sporting a 4.45 era. The fastball sits at 87-88 mph (T94). Despite only throwing 90+mph on 8% of his fastballs, he featured the pitch at a 72% clip (avg FB usage in D1 was 56.2%). He throws from a funky low 3⁄4 slot that is deceptive to hitters. At school the FB had a 33% chase rate which is way above average. He rounds out his arsenal with a SL and CH. The slider sat 74 and at times looked promising with a 36% whiff rate, but he only landed it in the zone 50% of the time. The CH, at 9% usage, was only thrown for 42% strikes.
After his season at Northwestern, Sullivan played in the Cape League for the Harwich Mariners where he threw an additional 28 innings. The Cape is hard for any player let alone a freshman but Sullivan threw really well. He struck out 29 in his 28 innings while only giving up 22 hits and 9 walks. His FB velocity ticked up a bit (avg 88.3) and his CH became a weapon. Its usage from school to Cape increased by 11% and landed it at 64% strikes, an increase of 22% from school. The CH also had a 37% whiff rate and 48% chase rate, both huge improvements from the spring.
Sullivan will be a really interesting guy to follow this spring as big breakout potential. He is likely a bullpen arm for Wake this year with the possibility of making midweek starts or sliding into the rotation barring an injury. If he can tap into his big frame and add some velocity to his deceptive arm slot, his draft stock will soar.
Seth Keener
After not throwing much as a freshman, Keener became a much bigger piece in 2022. The 6’1’’ RHP made 20 appearances including 11 starts. The season was up and down as he sported a 5.87 era in 53.2 innings, allowing 54 hits and 20 walks while striking out 56. He averaged >1 K/IP showing the stuff is there. He has a four pitch mix; FB, SL, CV and CH. Last spring the FB sat at 92 (T95) and was thrown 46% of the time. His best pitch is his slider which sat at 81.5 and drew a high whiff rate (46%). The pitch has even more room to improve as it only lands in the zone 57% of the time. His change is a work in progress but did induce 40% whiff.
After the spring he ventured to the Cape Cod League where he put together a very promising summer for the league champion Bourne Braves. Used predominantly out of the pen he threw 31 innings, allowing 29 hits, walking 11 and striking out 29 with an impressive 2.61 era.
It will be interesting to see if Wake uses him as a midweek starter or as a guy who can give you multiple innings out of the pen. Personally, I think he adds more versatility out of the pen. According to Coach Cilento he has seen a little velo tick this fall, and I think he can be a huge asset if he continues building on the success he found this summer against the country's best hitters.
Cole Roland
RHP Cole Roland is another interesting transfer Coach Walters went and landed from Dartmouth. Roland didn’t pitch in the spring of 2021 after the Ivy League canceled their season due to Covid. That summer he went on to play and close for the Vermont Mountaineers and broke out, striking out 18 batters per nine. In 25.1 innings he struck out an impressive 48 batters while only giving up 15 hits. The 6’3 Duxbury, MA native returned to Dartmouth in 2022 and pitched exclusively out of the pen. In 14 appearances he threw 30 innings, striking out 37, allowing 26 hits, and walking 19 batters. The walk total was high but batters only hit .228 off him.
An interesting note is his insane reverse splits. At school righties slashed a respectable .308/.410/.523 compared to lefty’s abysmal .119/.275/.167 slash line.
Roland offers a fastball that sits 88-90 (T93). Last season he struggled throwing it for strikes (59 zone%), an attribute that will need to improve for him to find success in the ACC. The fastball works primarily up in the zone which opens the door for his 12-6 curve that starts in the same zone before dropping. The curve has understandably become his out pitch, drawing a 56% whiff rate. He works quickly on the mound with an aggressive demeanor. He threw well against Tennessee last month with lots of energy. Everything I’ve heard from the coaching staff is that he’s looked really good this fall. Incredibly, due to covid and injuries, this upcoming season will only be Roland’s second in college. He is still raw but at 23 (will turn 24 in season) needs to have a big year if he has draft aspirations.
Michael Masssey
Heading over from the Big Easy to Winston-Salem is SO RHP Michael Massey. The 6’5’’ Tulane transfer threw to a 5.03 era, allowing 79 hits and 16 walks while striking out 52 in 68 innings as a true freshman. After making 11 starts for the Green Wave in 2022, Massey figures to be predominately a bullpen piece at Wake.
Massey has a three pitch mix highlighted by an explosive fastball. The fastball touched 96 last year but consistently sits 92-94. He threw it often at a 63% clip. The word from campus is that he is sitting 94-95 in relief appearance. He also features an 80 mph slider and a change that sits 84. The CH is almost exclusively thrown to LHHs with an impressive 36% whiff and 30% chase. Like Roland, Massey also has reverse splits. Lefties slashed .219/.281/.381 while righties slashed .308/.347/.487.
Wake is known for its ability to develop arms and if they can help continue to develop the slider and change, Massey has a chance to be an explosive late inning option.
When talking to the Wake Forest coaching staff, they were very high on two freshman arms that they think can work themselves into important roles this spring. The first name that kept coming up from the staff was Joseph Ariola. The 6’2” lefty out of Malverne, NY, missed his senior year in high school rehabbing from TJ, but has come back strong. Ariola features a fastball (91-94) with a lot of ride, a sharp slider and a work in progress change. He closed out the scrimmage against Tennessee, looking really sharp, touching 94 with his fastball and retiring all three batters he faced by inducing 2 weak ground balls and ending the game with a strikeout. If Ariola can carry the success he’s seen this fall into the spring, Wake may have a legit weapon that they weren't expecting to have this early in his career.
The other freshman arm that is making some noise is Maine Player of the Year, Zachary Johnston. The 6’5 lefty oozes projectability. At a very thin 180 lbs, there is room to add weight which should help with a velocity spike. He already sits (89-92) with a 3⁄4 delivery. His towering height creates excellent extension, and nightmares for any batters facing him. He also features
a CH that Coach Cilento calls “plus” and a work in progress slurve. Unfortunately Johnston suffered an off the field accident which led to a fracture in his elbow. He is scheduled to return for the season, but it will hamper his ability to lift and get stronger this winter.
The Offense
In 2022, Wake Forest had one of the best offenses in the ACC, ranking 1st in runs (561), OBP (.425), Walks (364), and 2nd in AVG (.319) and HRs (122). Incredibly enough, Wake only said farewell to SS Michael Turconi and C Brendan Tinsman. Wake effectively used the portal to fill the catcher position and have several serviceable options to fill their hole at short. Overall, Wake should have an even better offensive output in 2023 with the potential for 7-8 hitters in their lineup to put up double-digit home runs.
Tommy Hawke
It’s only right to kick off the offense with the lineup's most underrated player, Tommy Hawke. Hawke, who will likely work out of the leadoff spot in 2023, has a traditional leadoff makeup. He is a high contact (11% whiff), plus runner (30/35 SB), who plays a strong defensive CF. A no-name recruit, Hawke made his name known last spring by recording the 2nd highest avg (.406) and obp (.525) in ACC play, only trailing teammate Nick Kurtz, who stands a full foot taller than 5’6’’ Tommy. He gets it done by batting balls to his strengths. He hit 22% line drives and 55% ground balls, keeping balls low to the ground which plays into his high contact (low power) and plus speed strengths. It worked well as he hit .458 on grounders last year, a number that could certainly go down next year with better defensive positioning. Overall, Hawke is a tough plate appearance for pitchers, forcing 4.07 P/PA and seeing over 2.9 pitches AFTER reaching two strikes. To no surprise, he walked (43) more than he struck out (38) in 2022, something that will kill opposing teams if continued in 2023. Teams will have to go right after Hawke because he is protected by 2 future 1st rounders, Nick Kurtz and Brock Wilken.
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz put together a MONSTER freshman season at Wake Forest. The Pennsylvania native recorded 30 XBHs with a whopping 48 walks and 14.6% K-rate over 54 games. The athletic 6’6’’ 230-pound L/L first baseman led ACC play in average (.422) and OBP (.548) in 2022 with an astonishing 1.254 OPS, good for 2nd in the conference behind only 2022 2nd rd pick Max Wagner. Kurtz’s success is driven by a patient, mature approach. Kurtz didn’t have a chase rate over 20% against any pitch (15% overall) and had a minuscule 12% swing rate on first pitches. He pairs the vision of a leadoff hitter (4.23 P/PA) with the power of a middle-of-the-order slugger (.637 SLG). Some scouts believe Kurtz has the best overall hit tool in the ‘24 class. He has strong L/R splits, covers all 4 quadrants well, and has incredible results vs breaking pitches. His only struggle really came against the changeup where he was often out in front, leading to increased whiff, rollover and pop out rates. He did however record a 24% line drive rate vs the change so even his holes have positive tendencies. After breaking onto the scene last year, Kurtz is THE GUY to beat in the Wake lineup next year. In 2024, he is setting himself up to be one of the first college bats off the board.
Brock Wilken
After a sensational freshman campaign in 2021 where he blasted a freshman school record 17 homers, followed up by a CCBL MVP, Brock Wilken established himself as a sure-fire day 1 selection in the 2023 draft. Wilken has one of if not the highest raw power profiles in the class which he has translated to plus game power with 51 bombs in 175 collegiate games (CCBL included). In fact, Wilken has a chance to enter the Wake record books next year as he sits 19 homers shy of breaking the school’s all time HR record (58). Following the spring, he’ll look to be the 10th 1st rounder in school history. He has the size, power, and tools to stick at 3rd so the only question remaining for him is the swing-and-miss concerns. While Wilken’s strong combination of pitch recognition and zone awareness allows him to keep his chase under 20%, his whiff rate vs off-speed and breaking pitches sits at 38%, a number that will need to come down a bit in 2023 to maximize his draft stock.
Bennett Lee
My 2023 X-factor for the Demon Deacons offense is JR catcher Bennett Lee, who will replace Wake’s biggest offensive loss in Brendan Tinsman, who launched 24 HRs in 2022. After a breakout freshman year at Tulane where he had an OPS of 1.127 and 11.33% K rate in 34 games, Lee took a step back with the bat in 2022. After suffering an injury early in the Cape season that held him out for a couple months, he came back strong in the fall blasting a HR in their highly regarded scrimmage vs Tennessee. Behind the dish, Lee is a far more polished defender than Tinsman, something that will help the Wake staff tremendously over the course of the spring. Lee comes into the year as a consensus top 5 round pick in next year’s draft and for Wake to reach their potential, he’ll have to play to or exceed that standard.
Danny Corona
One of the top middle infielders on Tom Walter’s squad is sophomore Danny Corona. We’ve talked about the greatness of other current sophomore bats like Nick Kurtz and Tommy Hawke but it was Corona who came to Winston-Salem as the biggest offensive recruit, making it to campus after being drafted in the 16th round by the Pirates. After a solid freshman campaign that ended in a .755 OPS and 13 XBHs, his underlying numbers point to Corona having a breakout season in 2023. Corona turns out solid exit velos, averaging over 87 mph and given his lineup placement (which I think will be 6-8) he should see a higher % of fastballs which he slugged .439 against last year. I expect him to have a breakout 2023.
Justin Johnson
Justin Johnson is another key under-the-radar transfer to keep an eye on. The grad transfer from Lafayette was out all last spring with injury but broke out with an incredible CPL summer where he slashed .337/.456/.554 with a 17:13 BB:K in 114 PAs. A sure-handed defender up-the-middle with 745 career collegiate PAs, Johnson should be a solid bottom of the order 2B option for the Demon Deacons in 2023.
Pierce Bennett
One player Wake is pleasantly surprised to have back is UTL SR Pierce Bennett. Mixing in at all 3 OF spots, 2B, and 3B in 2022 to a .990 fld%, Bennett was perhaps the most underrated player
in the lineup. The righty slashed .367/.456/.533 with a 28:20 BB:K and 21 XBHs in 248 PAs. With some of the best bat-to-ball in the country, Bennett had a 7.89 whiff% while also carrying one of the country’s highest line drive rates at ~37%. In 2023, Bennett will fit nicely in the top half of the Wake lineup (most likely in 2 or 5 hole). In the field, Bennett will fill in wherever needed but given the infield depth, I think he lands primarily in a corner outfield spot.
Two other productive bats returning to the Demon Deacons lineup are SR OF Adam Cecere and JR DH Jake Reinish. Each player put together huge seasons in 2022, recording 23 XBHs a piece and >.950 OPS. Each player will provide Wake with power and experience in the back half of their loaded lineup.
Marek Houston
A player to keep an eye out for is highly coveted FR SS Marek Houston. The FL native had a solid fall and broke out as the best defensive shortstop on the team. PBR had Houston ranked 185th in the class. While it may be tough for him to break into the opening day lineup, Houston could very well see himself starting by mid-season if Johnson isn’t able to make an adjustment to the ACC.
Projected lineup:
CF Tommy Hawke (L) RF Pierce Bennett (R) 1B Nick Kurtz (L)
3B Brock Wilken (R) LF Adam Cecere (L) C Bennett Lee (R) DH Jake Reinish (L) SS Danny Corona (L) 2B Justin Johnson (R)
With 3 returning starters that all could go in the first round, a revamped and experienced bullpen and one of the most explosive offenses in the ACC I think it is finally the year Wake Forest dog-piles in Omaha.