For some players, their draft-eligible year can be a blowtorch to a dynamite wick. Whether that be from physical transformation or added eyes and attention, some players take off when the lights get brighter. Every spring ushers in new draft breakthroughs. Players plow through their draft projections, unlocking a new level of impact and physicality in the spring.
On New Year’s Day last year, Jackson Holliday ranked as the No. 42 overall prospect on our 2022 MLB Draft Top 300. It’s not just our board either. MLB Pipeline had Holliday the No. 52 overall prospect this time last year. The rest is history. In 2021, Henry Davis surged from a late-first round projection to going first overall. In 2020, Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad ended up going No. 2 overall, but just six months prior he was more thought to be a guy that’d go in the 25-40 range. Surely 2023 is likely to offer similar narratives.
Athleticism and tools are key when looking to identify players that may fit the “1.1 dark horse” label. Ideally, a player will play up the middle of the field and provide value on both sides of the ball. The batted-ball metrics will always be crucially important, but recognizing players that will avoid growing into a designated hitter by the time they turn 25 years old is obviously crucial.
With that, here are five players who have the underlying data, as well as the athletic tools to warrant a potential surge into the top of the draft discussion come July.
Jack Hurley, Outfield, Virginia Tech
Hurley enters the 2023 season as a bit of a hidden gem, veiled by the likes of Gavin Cross, Cade Hunter, Tanner Schobel and Nick Biddison last season; all eventual Top-5 round selections last July out of Virginia Tech. Hurley is coming off a massive sophomore campaign where he slashed .375/.452/.664 with 14 homers and 10 stolen bases. He manned left field for much of the season, but could patrol centerfield in 2023 with Biddison having moved on.
Hurley has a track record of being a swing-first-ask-questions-later slugger. It’s led to some streaky periods of swing-and-miss, but when he gets rolling, he is one of the most dangerous bats in the country. Despite being just 6-foot, 185-pounds, Hurley ranked inside the 95th percentile for all college hitters last season with a max exit velocity close to 112 mph. Over 40 percent of his balls in play exceeded 98 mph. That’s fairly elite, again, right in that 95th percentile range. These aren’t outliers either. His average exit velocity and barrel percentage last season both rank well above average amongst his peers. The approach at the plate will need some fine tuning, and Hurley will need to cut down his chase rate. But if he’s a bit more selective in 2023, his already gaudy offensive numbers could soar higher.
Hurley’s pure tools are representative of a guy who could justifiably go first overall. He has above average speed and uses it well, running strong routes in the field and stealing bags. If there’s one wart, Hurley’s throwing arm is fringy. He’s destined for centerfield or left field as a pro, the latter being the more fitting role.
If Hurley’s bat takes another step forward in 2023 and shows more polish, he’s a name you could see slowly buoy his way up boards. Once you get into that Top 5 discussion, anything can happen.
Brock Wilken, Third Base, Wake Forest
Wilken burst onto the scene on the Cape in 2021, posting an outlandish .302/.440/.519 slash as a teenager playing up against the best competition in the country. Wilken has been one of the most prodigious power hitters in college baseball the last two seasons totaling 40 homers, matching LSU outfielder Dylan Crews during that same period. Wilken’s slash line backed up a bit as a sophomore. After striking out at a 17.3 percent clip as a freshman, Wilken saw his K-rate jump to 24.2% last season. Jeren Kendall is the only college hitter to ever get drafted in the first round with a strikeout rate over 24% in their draft-eligible year. History suggests Wilken will need to see that bat-to-ball mature back to the career mean this spring.
What Wilken showed as a freshman at Wake Forest is hard to ignore. And his batted-ball metrics last season still point to an impact bat that can carry a team. At his best, Wilken’s exit velocities ranked just outside the 99th percentile in college baseball last season. He maxed out close to 111 mph. Simply put, there aren’t many players who hit the ball harder than Wilken.
In 2022, Wilken’s bat-to-ball woes may have stemmed from passivity at the plate. His 41.9 percent swing rate should probably jump a bit next season, especially early in the count. Wilken actually doesn’t chase outside the zone much, but he does struggle to hit the breaking ball in the zone at times. From this chair, ambushing pitches early in counts and getting pitchers off their best weapons could pay dividends next season. The approach late in at-bats is solid. The foundation is strong. It’s pretty easy to foresee a major jump in Wilken’s production in 2023.
Wilken is an average defender with solid hands and footwork, though his first step and fringy range do bring his defensive profile down a peg. That said, it’s comfortably a plus throwing arm, maybe more. That certainly helps make up for some of his heavy-footedness, especially on backhands to his right. He’s a fringe-average runner and likely won’t ever be a threat on the base paths. If Wilken posts a season like his 2021 campaign, he’ll shoot up boards as a potential solid average hitter with 70-grade raw power. His upside is that of an average defender who’s capable of posting several .260 seasons with 40 home run juice. Every team in baseball would happily throw $8 million at the promise of that kind of production.
Kyle Teel, Catcher, Virginia
Solid, projectable, accomplished college catchers are hard to come by and, if we’re going by upside alone, Teel represents one of the more exciting college catchers in recent years. A sweet-swinging lefty with tools aplenty, Teel has been on scouting radars since his high school days. He’s been a force for the Cavaliers with a career .305 average. In 2022, Teel slashed .276/.402/.439 with six homers and more walks than strikeouts. He started most of his time behind the plate but did log seven starts in the outfield where he’s proven plenty comfortable.
The metrics really speak to a polished hitter here. Teel’s 13 percent strikeout rate and 80.4 percent contact rate are both impressive figures. Adding to the narrative is a 17.5 percent chase rate that ranked among the 93rd percentile for all college hitters. The deeper you dive, the better it gets. Teel doesn’t have one single pitch that gives him fits, nor does he have a pitch from righties or lefties that he tends to chase at an alarming rate either. The exit velocities here are rather healthy too, peaking at 109 mph. Teel hits a healthy amount of fly balls, maybe a tick too heavy if we’re nitpicking, but if he continues to add strength and his average exit velocity numbers move in the right direction, that could play to his advantage considering the amount of contact he makes.
What Teel has can be very difficult to find behind the plate. He’s a fantastic athlete with above average run times, top-of-the-scale lateral mobility and a solid average arm. Baseball is moving in a different direction behind the plate, so it remains to be seen if a solid average arm will be enough in what figures to be a changing meta, but Teel checks every other box there is. It’s tough to find guys that move like this behind the plate and that will certainly have teams’ interest.
The aforementioned added strength is where Teel will need to show growth in 2023. He doesn’t hit the ball nearly as hard as guys like Henry Davis, Adley Rutschman or Joey Bart did, so turning himself into a more physical, impact hitter will be the key if he hopes to go first overall.
Chase Davis, Outfield, Arizona
Davis was an extremely high-profile blue-chip as a high schooler in 2020. Prospects Live graded him the No. 44 overall prospect available in that class. He had plenty of money offered his way but felt it best he go to the University of Arizona and develop his craft a bit more and give it another go in 2023. After being utilized in more of a part-time role in 2021, Davis worked as the starting left fielder for the Wildcats last spring, posting a .289/.414/.583 slash with 18 homers. He worked a 16.6 percent walk-rate and struck out 22.8 percent of his at-bats.
You could make the argument Davis was rather green in 2022 having not played extensive time the year before. A year older and a year wiser at the plate, Davis could see his game take off to another level in 2023. Like Hurley and Wilken, Davis is a batted-ball monster with exit velocities befitting a player much bigger than Davis is. Last season, his peak exit velocity ranked among the best in the country. His contact quality was streaky, so the variability of his batted balls was a rollercoaster, but at his best, there are very few guys in the country who can hit a ball quite as hard as Davis. He did show quite a bit of swing-and-miss in his game, whiffing on close to 32 percent of his swings. He was particularly exposed against spin last season, posting a contact rate of just 50 percent against breaking balls. That will need to improve in 2023 if Davis is to go in the first round.
Where Davis outpaces his peers, Hurley and Wilken included, is in the athleticism department. He’s comfortably an above average glove in either corner and possesses a weapon in his 70-grade arm. He is a solid average runner who has a chance to steal double-digit bags as a pro.
Davis has a bit farther of a climb than Hurley and Wilken do to reach his draft ceiling as a No. 1 overall pick, but the athletic tools and impact at the plate both exist. The swing-and-miss must improve. If it does, scouts may once again begin singing his praises as “Carlos González 2.0”.
John Peck, Shortstop, Pepperdine
Of the five names mentioned here, Peck is certainly the biggest longshot to go first overall, but he’s extremely interesting and worth a deep dive. In 2022, Peck slashed .361/.417/.578 with seven homers and seven stolen bases. He logged 39 starts, all at the shortstop position, missing about a month with an undisclosed injury. That performance landed him a roster spot with Bourne in the Cape Cod League. Peck would struggle, slashing .195/.270/.260, uncharacteristic strikeouts slowing his summer.
Despite the underwhelming showing, it’s Peck’s batted-ball data that has analysts raving about what it could look like if he puts it all together. Over 96 balls in play, Peck peaked north of 111.5 mph. He hit close to 43 percent of his balls in play over 98 mph. Mix in his launch angles and suddenly we’re talking about a college shortstop who ranked among the best in college baseball in terms of barrel percentage. Peck has an extremely whippy bat path and his hands can get outside of his body too often, especially when he’s fooled. His hands and inconsistent swing plane affect his ability to impose consistent backspin on the baseball. Thus, home run numbers that don’t necessarily line up with his batted-ball data. Peck makes more than enough contact. It’s a solid average hit tool. If he irons out the bat path, he could unlock a new level of game power. If Peck can put it all together in 2023 and turn those missile ground balls and line drives into fly balls, he could put up prodigious numbers in the West Coast Conference.
At 6-foot-1, 190-pounds, Peck is a well-built infielder with a glide to his game. He moves around the dirt well showcasing a quick first step and a quick release when fielding the ball. Peck has shown a willingness to change his arm angles when necessary and has more than enough arm to make most throws, though he’s in no rush to show it off when he doesn’t need to. From this chair, it looks above average. He projects an average, maybe a solid average defender at the position, though his tools would play quite literally anywhere on the field. There are some similarities between Peck and 2022 Brewers first round pick Eric Brown, though Peck may be the superior defender, Brown the better pure athlete.
It should come as no surprise Peck will need to annihilate the West Coast Conference this season to wipe away what was a frustrating summer with the wood bat. It wouldn’t surprise me if he took the Logan Davidson route this year. Davidson, the 29th overall pick in the 2019 draft out of Clemson, was a career .290 hitter with 42 home runs in college. On the Cape however, Davidson batted .201 with three homers and a 30 percent strikeout rate over 263 plate appearances. Peck will have every opportunity to prove himself in front of legions of scouts. It’s a long shot he jumps to the front of the pack, but you heard it here first. For now, he likely projects in the 3rd to 5th round range.