For a couple years now, ever since arriving to Baton Rouge, Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews has been revered by just about everyone in the baseball industry as one of the most feared hitters on the amateur scene. A career .356 hitter with 40 homers to his name in just two seasons, Crews has put his name in the lights among some of the most impressive bats to ever bulldoze the SEC. The seemingly invincible Crews has bludgeoned pitchers with increasing authority the last two years. So how does one get him out? Is he already too advanced for college baseball? Is there a blueprint to balance the scales?
Long story short? Well, no. The vast majority of college pitchers are not equipped to go toe-to-toe with Crews. He’s going to get his.
As you might imagine, feeding Crews fastballs is a surefire way to find yourself in hot water. Crews hit .388 with a .705 slugging percentage and an OPS over 1.250 against fastballs last season. In 2021, as a true freshman, Crews had a whiff rate of just 13% when swinging at heaters. In 2022, that fell a tick to 16%. The MLB-average whiff-rate on fastballs is 18%. Furthering the narrative, Crews’ chase percentage on heaters outside of the zone was just 15% in 2022. The MLB-average chase rate on fastballs is 25%.
That chase rate really speaks to the process of Crews. He is a selective hitter. He knows what he wants to hit and he’s more than happy to wait until he gets it. He ranks among the best in college baseball across the board in staying inside the zone. It doesn’t matter the pitch, Crews’ chase rates are well, well above average when compared to MLB averages.
Now that’s to be expected a bit. Big league pitchers have better stuff. The have better command and they are more apt to pitching backwards, keeping hitters off-balance. Still, Crews ranks in the 90th percentile in college baseball in terms of overall chase percentage at a tick over 18 percent. So even among his peers, he’s awfully close to elite.
Where Crews may be vulnerable is against spin. His whiff percentage against sliders in 2022 was 41 percent. For reference, the MLB-average is 33 percent. While Crews possesses a discerning eye and a grand willingness to stay inside the zone, when pitchers have gotten him to pull the trigger on sliders, they’ve had some success. That said, Crews still hit .300 with a .640 slugging percentage against the pitch.
Against sliders exceeding 80 mph, Crews hit just .225 with a .425 slugging percentage and whiffed on 46 percent of his swings. As slider velocity increases, Crews’ shortcomings against the pitch grower louder. His chase rate increases and his in-zone and out-of-zone contact percentages drop. There’s clearly opportunity here for pitchers with big league spin and velocity on their slider, provided they can command pitch on the corner and just off the plate. If it’s non-competitive or catches too much of the plate, Crews’ track record speaks for itself.
There’s a similar narrative when it comes to off-speed stuff. In 2022, Crews posted a 44 percent whiff rate when swinging at changeups and splitters. The MLB-average is 29 percent. He hit north of .300 on changeups left in the strike zone, so commanding the pitch is absolutely critical.
Without question, scouts want to see the contact percentages for secondary weapons tick up for Crews this season. As he works his way into pro ball, he’s going to see bigger, better spin, and he’s going to see it with more frequency. His contact percentages on sliders and changeups “on the black” and off the plate just aren’t good enough. It’ll need improve as he begins seeing better arms that can work to both sides of the plate with authority and precision.
It's hard to really get too concerned for Crews, however. We’re talking about a guy with an elite approach at the plate and a track record of assaulting mistakes. Like any hitter, Crews will fall victim to ‘pitchers’ pitches’ throughout his career. Extending at-bats by fouling off close pitches will without question become an important piece of his development moving forward. But at the college level, so long as he continues to punish pitches that catch too much of the plate, he’ll stay awfully dangerous.
So how do you get Crews out? Well, the numbers splayed out above may point to a blueprint. Crews is a rather passive hitter, swinging at just 38 percent of the pitches he saw in 2022. He stays within his approach, so pitchers will have to get his back against the wall. When Crews gets into 2-strike counts, that swing rate ups to 50 percent, including a 48-percent swing rate in 0-2 counts. This, combined with Crews’ whiff rates on sliders off the outside corner, might be the schematic. Get ahead in the count and throw slider after slider after slider, hoping he’ll chase.
To get Crews out you need big league stuff. Plain and simple. You need a secondary weapon that is nasty enough to give him a reason to chase. Pitchers must have the conviction and willingness to prioritize getting ahead in the count, pitch backwards and show a willingness to throw spin and off-speed in volume, even behind in the count. Getting Crews to chase is the key, and unfortunately for pitchers at this level, that’s next to impossible if you fall behind. Very few college pitchers are skilled enough to live on the black at this point in their careers, and even less have the stuff that would fool Crews in the first place.
Moving forward, as it pertains to Crews’ professional career, he should fly through the low minors. A-Ball and High-A should pose no issue. Those pitchers, as a lump generalization, aren’t too dissimilar from what he’ll see every weekend in the SEC. Most don’t have the pure stuff or polish to fool him on a consistent basis. Double-A will likely be the hinge point in his development. He’ll need to learn how to battle, fouling off more pitches with two strikes against advanced arms. As for 2022, it figures to be a long year for pitchers in the SEC with marginal stuff.