This article comes by way of Tyson Tucker, the newest member of the Prospects Live Draft Team.
By way of winning the first ever MLB Draft lottery, The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in far too familiar of a position. Holding the first overall pick in an MLB Draft. When Ben Cherington turns in the selection on July 9, it will mark the franchises’ sixth No. 1 overall selection. The most of any franchise in MLB history. Certainly not something owner Bob Nutting and the powers that be are looking to boast about.
While not an illustrious honor, the first overall selection can bring some life and newfound belief to an organization. You have to wonder if that’s exactly what the doctor ordered for the fourth-year general manager Cherington. This will be Cherington’s second time holding the first overall selection as the head decision maker of the Buccos and the early returns on the 2021 selection of Henry Davis are mixed.
Early reviews aside, Cherington and his scouting director Joe Dellicari have walked away with the prospect carrying arguably the best hit tool in each of their three drafts together; Nick Gonzales (20’), Henry Davis (21’) and Termarr Johnson (22’). All signs point to them having the chance to do that again in 23’ with LSU’s Dylan Crews holding the top spot in majority of mocks, including our most recent here at Prospects Live.
This is not to say Crews becoming a Pirate by the end of the summer is a forgone conclusion. While certainly plausible, Davis was not the consensus 1.1 pick in 2021. That selection caught some in the industry by surprise. There’s certainly some ground to stand on if you believe the Pirates take that route again and go elsewhere.
And as recently chronicled by our Draft Director Joe Doyle; the past two drafts have seen players go first overall who were tabbed as late first rounders when the calendar turned to January of their draft year. Those situations in mind, coupled with recent draft strategy tell us the Pirates may go elsewhere with the first overall pick.
PIRATE PREFERENCE?
The 2022 Draft saw the Pirates spend 16 of their 21 selections on pitchers. With an emphasis on those from the college ranks; 14 of 16 total. Cherington was quoted after the draft saying there was no clear emphasis on pitching, just that they were taking the “best player available.” The underlying information and indications show that that might not be the case.
When looking into the data on some of the selections there is reason to believe there are some modeling factors at play here.
There’s a clear pattern here. The scouting department said ERA be damned, we want to find arms that strike guys out and limit their walks. six of the nine listed here had ERAs north of 5.00. But one only one had a K/9 below college average, Derek Diamond. However, Diamond was the best at limiting his BB/9 number (1.77), there is give and take at play here.
At first glance, the ERA numbers can be staggering but Dellicari mentions there is merit behind the selections.
““(They) may present themselves in the moment not having as much success now,” Dellicari said in an interview with TribLive. “Do I call those gems? Maybe not necessarily, but it’s an opportunity for our (coaching and player development) group to really bond with these young men first and foremost and meet them where they are.”
Although that quote is pretty cut and dry, when reading between the lines a little bit you can tell the staff has affinity for stuff. Thomas Harrington into the mid-90s with projection for more. Barco with a 41% whiff rate on his slider. Jack Brannigan was up to 99mph. JP Massey, Diamond and KC Hunt all touched the mid-90s with plus secondaries. In a vacuum, the model doesn’t care for ERA. There’s many factors at play in regards to ERA; college defense, park factors, and the baseball itself. If you strike out guys, limit walks but still give up runs; you’re their guy.
But why pitchers?
For starters, the front office may be apprehensive after the initial returns on some of their recent position player selections. Gonzales has missed stretches of at least a month in the past two seasons, while hitting .263 at AA Altoona as a hit-first type guy.
The aforementioned Davis figures to still be a fine selection, but he’s no longer the top catcher in the organization. Davis has been outperformed by Endy Rodriguez who had on OPS over a thousand in his 31 game stretch in Altoona. Which earned him a call up to AAA Indianapolis where he went (10–22) in a short 6 game sample. Odds are Davis still finds his way to the bigs sooner rather than later but injuries, along with the emergence of Rodriguez have led some to cool off on him.
Beyond that, this is what the current rotation shapes up to be at time of publish.
Putting it all together, it’s clear at this point the organization has laid a pitching infrastructure within player development that they truly believe in. And there’s reason to believe them; the organizations #4 overall prospect Quinn Priester is nearing an MLB debut and the early returns on former top 5 prospect Luis Ortiz are encouraging as well (83 K’s in 91 IP).
The next phase is bringing in talent on the mound to supplement the system and get them in the hands of the trusted player development staff. The base of the position player side has serious intrigue and upside with the likes of Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski. While there is still work to be done there, the current state of affairs on the mound at the big league level leaves much to be desired.
SO WHO IS THE PICK?
As we sit here now, if the Pirates choose to follow the path they laid out in 2022 going college pitching heavy, there are two likely scenarios. One involves selecting the other consensus top prospect Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander. The SEC Pitcher of the Year and 2023 Prospects Live Preseason All-American has been drawing rave reviews. Including from our own staff, “The argument can be made he’s the best college pitching prospect in over a decade.”
Dollander is as polished as they come. 4 pitch mix with a silky delivery from a lower slot. It’s a fastball that is regularly in the mid-90s and touches 99. The slider is the carrying breaker with potential to be ++. He finds success with a curve in the mid-70s and a changeup gets mixed in.
If Dollander can come even close to repeating his 2022 season which saw him go 10–0 with a 2.39 ERA and 108 K’s in 79 innings, it may be a no-brainer for the Pirates.
But that’s too easy. If it’s not Dollander who could it be?
Look no further than LSU’s Paul Skenes.
Billed at 6–6 and 235 lbs, he is tough to look past. Skenes is noted for his makeup and competitive fire coming from a service academy. Something the Pirates valued highly in their selection of Davis.
Skenes, tabbed as our No. 12 overall prospect, finds his way to LSU after transferring in from Air Force. During his 2022 season at Air Force, Skenes compiled a 10–3 record with a 2.73 ERA and 96 K’s over 85.2 IP. While also slashing .314/.412/.643 & hitting 13 tanks in 153 ABs on his way to All-American honors.
Industry consensus seems to agree Skenes’ best chance for pro success is on the bump. Even more so now after reports coming out of Baton Rouge this fall about Skenes running the fastball up to nearly 100 mph. The most intriguing offspeed is a “fall-off-the-table split-change”. Two true weapons.
The righty will have every chance to be the ace & Friday night starter of the top team in college baseball. That’s serious pedigree that carries weight in July when teams are looking for college pitching. There’s real Golden Spikes award winning potential in Skenes’ future. And while that is promising, if it all comes together on the mound I have a comparison in mind that could be even more promising.
A Golden Spikes winner in his own right, Stephen Strasburg.
I know that’s a staggering comparison and I’m not here to tell you Skenes will be Strasburg. A Strasburg like career is likely in the 90–95th percentile of outcomes for Skenes but there are already some clear commonalities.
First of all, it’s the frame. Listed at 6-foot-5, 225 lbs coming out San Diego State the stature certainly lines up. Secondly, if Skenes’ velocity bump is true, the two run parallel on fastball velocity coming out of college. Both sitting 95–97 and running it up to 99+. Beyond that, I’ve already mentioned Skenes’ fall-off-the-table split-change, a true plus pitch. Coincidentally, Strasburg pitched his way to World Series MVP in 2019 featuring a changeup. A pitch that Strasburg created -12 run value on that year, top-10 in the league.
The mechanics aren’t a clear match; different hand positioning in the set position, Skenes is a touch quicker in the leg lift to drive but I don’t think they are far apart. Both use the front side and left arm to really set their direction. Both use a short, compact move down the mound attacking hitters with their frame. It’s not a stretch to say there’s some mechanical harmony between the two.
I’ll reiterate, the odds of Skenes reaching peak Strasburg are very slim but I won’t rule it out. Although, both did serve the role as a closer in their freshman season before moving to a starting role in year two. Odds are Skenes won’t strike out 195 guys in 109 innings in year three on his way to being the No. 1 pick. However, he will have every chance to make a statement as the best pitcher, on the best team, in the best conference in college baseball. He strikes guys out & he limits his walks to a fair degree (3.1 BB/9). The ingredients are there.
Even if it doesn’t fully come together in the scheme of limiting runs, I’ve already chronicled the Pirates lack of emphasis on what the ERA column says. And if that’s the case there’s reason to believe Skenes’ could sign underslot, a la 2022 flamethrower and late-riser Cade Horton. Which could allow the Buccos to target more college pitching or some falling high-profile high school arms with picks 42, 67, 72 and beyond. In a draft class noted for its depth of college pitching, it might just fall right into their lap.
Time is ticking for the Pirates front office to make selections that provide value to the big league ball club. They’ve shown their affinity for college pitching and 2023 offers plenty of that. Who is to say the residual of past models with the affinity for tall pitchers isn’t still ruminating throughout the organization. Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow turned out to be pretty, pretty good pitchers. They may have not reached their highest potential with the Pirates but with the new development infrastructure in place, they now believe they can develop stars on the mound.
Skenes might just be that star.