Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | RHP | 17 | 40 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Cont/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 40 | 50/45 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Geoff Pontes
Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-4
Weight: 242 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2020 Draft, Round 3
RuleV: 2023
Physical Description: Bigger body, with a broad shouldered frame. Built like a lumberjack with strength and size throughout. Inning eater body and strong physical presence on the mound.
Delivery & Mechanics: Classic overhand break motion. Starts with rocker step to moderate leg lift with acute drop and drive, strong leg block, finishing balanced over his frontside. Brown does a good job of incorporating his lower half into his mechanics, generating plenty of torque. Higher release, near over the top arm action.
Fastball: Above average pitch with average velocity around 93 mph, sitting 92-94 mph, bumping 95 mph. Keep in mind this was from the pen. So it's reasonable to expect his velocity to tick down a hair as a starter. Above average vertical break generating a >18 inch induced vertical break on average. This allows his fastball to play in the upper quadrants, especially gloveside where he has a history of generating chases. Grade: 55
Curveball: Brown's go to secondary weapon, a hard breaking curveball with slurvy break in the 79-83 mph band. Can throw it a little harder at times and will touch 84-85 mph. Shows good feel for the pitch and was an effective out pitch closing in college. Average to possibly above average curveball. Grade: 50
Slider: Tighter version of curveball with less two plane break. Will bleed into curveball a little when it's not thrown at it's best velocity. At its best the slider sits 84-86 mph with the ability to play to the edges against either handedness. Unfortunately shape is inconsistent and lags behind curveball. Slider development should be a point of emphasis for Brown in pro-ball. Grade: 45
Changeup: Below average offering at the moment only used four times in the truncated 2020 season. Does snap off a few with above average run and horizontal break. Could be another area of potential improvement for Brown as the Astros player development gets their hands on him. For now a below average pitch that shows average in flashes. Grade: 40
Control and Command: Above average strike thrower throughout his amateur career. Shows feel for all four quadrants with his fastball and the ability to land all of his pitches for strikes. Lacks consistent feel for his slider and changeup that hurt his overall grade. There's also a question of how his strike throwing will translate over multiple innings. Control: 50 | Command: 45
Overall: Closer for the Vanderbilt team that won the 2019 National Championship. The Astros will transition Brown to the rotation in 2021. In typical Astros fashion they'll likely do it by easing him into starts with 3-4 inning piggybacked outings with another starter. With the Astros prototypical four pitch mix and strike out stuff, Brown looks poised to join the group of elite hybrid arms the Houston system has begun to churn out in droves over the recent years. A fringe backend profile with upside for more.
OFP: 40
Role: 40 - Spot Starter or Long Reliever
Risk: Moderate
