Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | RHP | 23 | 40 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Cont/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 45/40 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Geoff Pontes
Age: 20 yr
Height: 5-11
Weight: 150 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2016 IFA
RuleV: Eligible
Physical Description: Smaller in stature with thin frame, looks smaller than his listed 5-11 and closer to 5-9. Maybe adds a few pounds over the years but it's a smaller righthander body type.
Delivery & Mechanics: Side step to moderate leg lift, drop and drive, gets heavy over front side, drops his slot down low, delivering from a lower three quarters arm action. Nearly side arm with a crossfire finish. Height and arm slot create an incredibly flat approach angle making it tough to pick the ball up out of his hand.
Fastball: Good velocity sitting 93-95 mph in shorter outings. Impressive velocity for a diminutive teenager. Low release and nearly side arm crossfire delivery play up the quality of the fastball. Shows the ability to command at an average level hitting spots in all four quadrants. Swing and miss pitch, but batters can time it as the pitch lacks much late movement. Grade: 50
Curveball: Slower than slider in the 77-79 mph band with downer slurve movement. Will show the pitch at any time and has the feel to steal strikes on the corners. Command is advanced for a teenagers breaking ball. Grade: 50
Slider: Shows great feel for the slider, a sweepy offering at 80-82 mph, his go to secondary and best swing and miss pitch. Most of the contact made with the pitch was of the ground ball variety. Works mostly away from left handers backdooring the pitch at will. Grade: 50
Changeup: Good velocity separation between fastball at 83-84 mph, sub-optimal shape with minimal run. Gets hit the hardest of any of Lopez's offerings. Doesn't pronate well yet. Grade: 40
Control and Command: Below average control and command at the moment. With stuff that moves a ton it's more of a "get it in the zone and let his stuff do the work" profile than a finesse strike throwing one. That said he was an 18 year old that dominated short season in 2019 facing batters on average 3.5 years his junior. In other words take the walk numbers with a grain of salt. I believe based on flashes of above average feel, good sequencing and the balls to challenge hitters that Lopez can get to fringe average control or better. Control: 45 | Command: 40
Overall: An explosive young arm that might start the second wave of the Houston Hybrid archetype. Two quality breaking balls, a well sequenced changeup, and a high octane fastball. While the range of outcomes for Lopez is wide he presents a very strong foundational profile. He has stuff and pitch ability beyond his age and some unique characteristics within his mechanics that make him an uncomfortable at bat. Starter for now, but likely another arm capable of filling multiple roles in the bullpen.
OFP: 40
Role: 40 - Spot Starter or Long Reliever
Risk: High
