Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | LAD | RHP | 18 | 45 |
Grades Update: Dec 2020
| OFP | Role | FB | CT | CB | SL | CH | Cnt/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 40 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 40 | 50 | 55/50 |
Dec 2020 Report
Evaluator: Robert James
Age: 22 yr
Height: 5-10
Weight: 154 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2016 IFA
RuleV: On 40-man
Physical Description: Short, especially for a starting pitcher. Medium build and frame. Short but not slight. Solid lower half- decent ass. He's not big but he's super ripped, he's got a six-pack but he's a normal athlete. I don't think there's any significant projection left.
Delivery & Mechanics: Clean, simple delivery. Basic three quarters arm slot. Easy delivery. Great arm speed. Works from the middle of the rubber slightly on the first base side. Short leg kick. His delivery is very repeatable and he maintains it well during his starts. Has a habit of cutting short his follow through which leads to occasional WILD misses high and to the glove side.
Fastball: Good pitch with some natural bore and arm side run. Sits in the mid-90s topping out at about 97 during starts although he's been clocked higher in short stints (supposedly he hit 100 in the AFL). Average spin rate averaging in the 2300 rpm range but with moderate backspin. He maintained his velocity in the starts we observed, hitting 96 in the 7th inning vs. Inland Empire in August of 2019. He gets some good arm side run and sink and pounds the fastball in on right-handed hitters. There is no downward plane on the fastball but because of the movement is able to get a ton of ground balls. However, it's not a dynamic pitch on its own; it doesn't miss a ton of bats and Carrillo doesn't work up in the zone with it much although he will occasionally. Despite the velocity, it's not an overpowering pitch. Pounds the zone with strikes but mostly works arm-side with it. Grade: 55
Cutter: Used a lot vs. RHH and has a tight break but it's pretty firm. It doesn't have a huge break or much tilt. When the cutter was working he was able to throw it for strikes. I also saw him use it as a strikeout pitch. Grade: 45
Curveball: His most consistent secondary and probably the second most used pitch. Does not slow his arm down at all and it has a classic 12/6 shape. Can consistently throw it for strikes. Often works backwards and uses it to get ahead of hitters early in the count (starts a lot of guys off with it). It's a good pitch but he doesn't use it as a chase pitch and bury it in the zone much. Good control and command. Grade: 55
Slider: Not a very good pitch. Around 83 mph. Some starts he'd use this as his primary secondary. Pretty slurvy, doesn't have a good shape or a tight break. Buries it in the dirt vs. RHH but often jerks it into the ground glove-side. He threw a few with good tilt. Grade: 40
Changeup: Pretty good pitch. He snapped off a bunch of good ones with nice tumble and fade away from LHH. He definitely maintained his arm speed. Tough swing and miss pitch against LHB. About average flashing plus. Grade: 50
Control and Command: Carrillo has an easy, repeatable delivery, he can command his fastball and pounds the zone with it but oddly would have random bouts of wildness. But he wouldn't be wild as in he'd lose his delivery for a few innings, he would randomly be really wild with specific pitches. This resulted in a lot of HBP last year (a whopping 17 HBP in 86 IP last year!). It's hard to explain- it looked like he would cut his follow through short and just totally lose command of the ball high and to his glove side. But mostly he was around the zone. He commanded his fastball really well and really the only pitch he really struggled with was the slider. His deep arsenal however, allows him to sequence pretty well and he would often steal strikes early in the count with his curveball. So, ultimately, he had a lot of walks (51 in '19) and HBP last year (again, 17!) but I think it's a fluke and he'll have good command moving forward and since I'm writing the report I'm giving him a good grade. Control: 55 | Command: 50
Overall: With his small height and the way his fastball plays, Carrillo kind of looks like another Brusdar Graterol. Like Graterol, he's got velocity but does not miss bats with his fastball. Also, like Graterol he's a ground ball machine. However, although some might ticket Carrillo for the bullpen I think he'd actually work better as a starter. For one, right now, he doesn't have a pure "put away" pitch. His curveball is his best secondary but it's not really a "strikeout" pitch and his slider still needs work. Despite his atrocious K/BB rate this year and his insane HBP numbers I think he'll be able to command his pitches enough to fill in the back of a rotation. He could probably flirt with triple digits in short stints coming out of the pen but the fastball will never be a dominant pitch (at least not for strikeouts) so I don't think he'd be a high leverage arm. He'd be more valuable in the rotation and I think he will have the command and pitchability to stick.
OFP: 45
Role: 40 - Spot Starter - Low Leverage Relief
Risk: Moderate
