Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | RHP | 4 | 50 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Cont/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 60 | 60 | 70 | 30 | 30/30 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Matt Pullman
Age: 24 yr
Height: 6-1
Weight: 225 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2013 IFA
RuleV: On 40-Man Roster
Physical Description: He's pretty close to physically maxed, with a fairly thick torso and a strong lower half from the thighs down to the calves. Despite strength throughout, he isn't excessively bulky, and retains a relatively athletic build. There's no reason to believe his build precludes him from handling a starter's workload.
Delivery & Mechanics: He pitches exclusively out of the stretch, even as a starter in the minors. He employs a high-effort delivery ending with him falling off the mound towards first base. He is prone to flying open, with his mechanics falling out of sync, resulting in a difficulty to consistently throw strikes. He throws mostly from a high-three-quarters slot, occasionally dipping down to three-quarters or even lower on his slider.
Fastball: 92-97. Savant has classified two separate pitches, a two-seam with more pronounced armside run and a four-seam which plays more vertical. Both pitches operate within the same velocity band, so it's possible he actually throws one fastball with some variation. If he could control his fastball consistently, it would play up closer to a 70 and would also likely enable him to succeed as a starter. Without being able to consistently control or command his fastball, he will be relegated to the bullpen long-term. Grade: 60
Curveball: 81-85 with very high spin. It's slower and produces more break than his slider, but is equally as effective when thrown in the right situation. He throws it from approximately the same slot as the rest of his offerings, and it actually produces more horizontal break than his slider. Thrown about 20 percent of the time, it is a nice change of pace compared to his power fastball and slider. Like the rest of his offerings, he struggles to throw it for a strike consistently and misses his spot regularly. It's a good enough pitch on a 'stuff' basis to overcome these faults and still generate swings and misses, even when left in the heart of the zone. Grade: 60
Slider: 83-87 with very high spin. Morphs between a wipeout slider with pronounced horizontal break and a gyro-spin slider generating more vertical drop and an 11-5 trajectory. It remains to be seen if he can consciously shape the pitch, or if it is random variation. It's his primary pitch and he's willing to throw it early and often. In his short big league stints, he has thrown it 44 percent of the time, more than both of his fastballs combined. It generates whiffs at a high rate and is typically what he goes to when he needs a strikeout. If he truly can shape it at will, this pitch will play closer to an 80, as it's essentially two separate plus-plus pitches and he throws it for a strike as reliably as anything in his arsenal. As with any slider, it becomes a liability when left up in the zone as it flattens out. Grade: 70
Changeup: 89-92 with similar shape to his fastball but more drop due to the lower velocity and significantly lower spin. Thrown less than two percent of the time, Abreu seems to lack confidence in it. If he can develop his cambio to being even league average, it would elevate the rest of his arsenal by half a grade or more, and potentially allow him to throw a higher volume of innings even with his poor control. Grade: 30
Control and Command: Due to mechanical inconsistencies, Abreu struggles mightily with both. He can be seemingly in a groove and then miss his spot, and the zone entirely, by several feet. His minor league walk rates have ranged from poor to horrendous. He issued free passes at a 14 percent clip across 76 innings, mostly as a starter, at Double-A Corpus Christi in 2019. He frequently misses his spot by a foot or more with all of his pitches. He seems to fall back on his slider when he needs to throw a strike, which could lead to him becoming predictable at the highest level. Control: 30 | Command: 30
Overall: He has high-octane, nasty stuff. His repertoire includes three plus offerings which all generate swings and misses. It's hard to see him succeeding in a starting role without significant development of his command. With that said, he has the type of stuff that would make him a frontline starter in the event he ever came close to league-average command. Given the feasibility of such improvements, as well as his limited workloads throughout the minors, he's almost certainly a reliever moving forward. But he should excel in a high-leverage role and is capable of going multiple innings. His stuff will allow him to compete for the closer's role as soon as 2021. With some improved mechanical consistency, Abreu could develop into an elite bullpen piece.
OFP: 50
Role: 50 - Average High-Leverage Reliever
Risk: Moderate
