Fantasy

2024 DSL Top 50 Prospects Age 17 and Under

Juicy back here with my yearly top 50 DSL performers age 17 and under. Easily my favorite piece I do each year and the one where I learn the most from start to finish. Very interesting crop this year and the far less obvious rankings at the top than usual. Much more open-ended performances. Important to note, this list Is ranked by subjective performance metrics, not in order of prospect status. I hope you enjoy.


Below are the first 5 of Juicy Jensen’s DSL Top 50 Prospects Age 18 and Under. The rest of the top 50 is on our Patreon under the $5 /mo tier called “The 55”. We know you’ll enjoy it more than a $5 cup of coffee. Thank you for supporting the site and our writers who are compensated for their work.


1. Rainiel Rodriguez, C, Cardinals

5’10 200 R/R DR

I don’t think there’s any real question who the top performer amongst sub 18-year-olds in the DSL was this year. Rodriguez was an absolute monster with underlying stats even more impressive. Signed for $300,000 out of the DR (but spending a big chunk of his life in Pennsylvania) Rodriguez looks like an absolute steal. It’s a plus approach with good feel for the zone, but he is more of a fastball hunter right now and he will need to prove himself against quality spin still. As such, what looks like a plus hit tool from a metrics standpoint grades out closer to average for me with some risk. Power is no risk. Rodriguez reportedly hit a ball 475 feet in a game this year and consistently produced monster Ev numbers. It’s easy plus power potential and he gets the ball in the air at a truly elite rate, results in 10 HR and 25 XBH in just 142 AB. Bonkers. It’s just overwhelmingly consistent hard contact. Rodriguez is not fast and won’t be getting faster. The body is a bit husky and he will have to work hard to maintain a healthy weight and composition. It’s a C or 1B profile. Defensively, Rodriguez is a bit raw but with a very strong arm. While I have my concerns about the Cardinals current hitting dev, their defensive catcher development is up there with the best and I’m bullish on his ability to stick behind the plate. There’s a chance for an average hit, plus power that perhaps even plays up in game catcher who can hit 25-30 HR a year. That’ll play. I view Rodriguez very similar to how I viewed Phillies prospect Eduardo Tait last year and there’s a case to be made that Rodriguez is further along. High risk profile, but IMO this was the best player in the DSL and a prospect who should very much be on fantasy and real life radars, albeit not the top pure prospect of this list. 



2. Luis Pena, SS, Brewers

5’11 185 R/R DR

Signed for $800,000 Pena has a case for the best prospect on the best team in the DSL this year. When watching Pena, the twitch and explosion immediately stand out. Pena has big time bat speed, big time foot speed, natural instincts and a cannon for an arm. Pena has a solid 5’11 frame that looks capable of holding 200-205 pounds of good weight at maturity. At the plate, it’s more of an old-school, contact/LD oriented bat path with major hip and wrist explosion that leads to plus bat speed. In terms of pure bat-to-ball skills, Pena is up there with anyone in the class. He catches up to velo in all quadrants and picks up spin well, and the swing has barrel adjustability and he uses his slightly smaller frame to limit the length while swinging hard. It’s 70 grade contact potential safely, but the approach is more raw. Pena comes up looking to hit and looking to swing. He gets away with it due to the pure contact skills and had a miniscule K rate, but there were glimpses of soft contact due to swinging and connecting with pitches out of the zone and he will have to learn more discipline to reach his ceiling. There’s plus raw power here in the frame and bat speed and despite the bat path, Pena has managed to get the ball airborne with consistency, albeit with more pop up type contact than I’d like. As a runner, Pena has the more functional to baseball short stride movements like an NFL RB that let’s his speed play up on the bases and on the infield. This is a player who could genuinely steal 30+ bases a year. Defensively, Pena is a bit raw but shows plus actions at SS and a high defensive ceiling. He has a plus or better arm and with his speed, a fallback of CF feels safe. Overall Pena has drawn comps to a young Javier Baez, which is fair but right now, he looks more like the prime, Cubs era Javy and I think there is super star upside here that rivals any player on this list. It is worth noting that Pena dealt with injuries that sapped his stats to end the year and players as twitched up as this often deal with a heavier dose of injury risk. This could be the case with Pena. There’s also risk that Pena’s natural abilities will allow him to get away with and develop bad habits that don’t show up until the upper levels, which could slow development and lead to some hiccups at times. All of that said, Pena has the potential to become a true 5 tool player if his approach ticks up and 60 hit, 60 power, 70 run and a 70 arm at SS or CF is within the realm of realistic possibility. That would be a genuine super star, but it’s worth noting he comes with a hefty dose of risk. For now, Pena projects most as a higher ceiling version of recents Nats first round pick Seaver King. I really like this player and am in on him, despite him being a profile I generally avoid. Immense ceiling. 




3. Santiago Camacho, C, Giants

5’11 175 S/R VZ

It’s hard to have much of a better season than this. Camacho may not have the raw tools of some of the other players at the top of this list, but he is as polished as they come. Camacho, who signed for $277,500 out of Venezuela has clean swing mechanics from both sides and a nice blend of contact and damage. It’s a gap shooting approach at the plate, but Camacho has flashed average raw power with the ability to lift and square up the ball with consistency, leading to 14 XBH in just 102 AB. More than just pop, Camacho’s swing mechanics stand out. It’s a clean, wrist and hips geared swing with a clean path and feel for the barrel with a high adjustability ceiling. Pair that with plus swing decisions and an extreme lack of soft contact and you have the ingredients for a plus hit tool. Behind the plate, Camacho is a polished receiver but has fringey arm strength. Camacho is a pretty good athlete by teen catcher standards and while he won’t be a speed demon, won’t clog the bases either. Overall, Camacho is probably the second best catching prospect in the class for me right now, with a chance for a plus hit tool, average game power and a chance to stick behind the plate. That’s a recipe for a top 100 prospect and valuable player down the line, but as always, I’d exercise caution with teen catchers, especially ones that lack standout power. 


4. Jesus Made, SS, Brewers

6’2 200 S/R DR

Sans Leo De Vries, Made is likely the consensus number one prospect in this INT class at the moment, with a potential genuine five tool skillset, some pedigree and exceptional performance. Made has a big and athletic 6’2 frame with twitchy actions. A switch-hitter, Made has easy plus bat speed from both sides and a slightly upper-cut bat path from both sides of the plate. Made has a bit of a noisy set up with some moving parts and I do worry a bit about how well he will handle better pitching. I do expect the soft contact and swing and miss to tick up a bit, but luckily Made makes very good swing decisions and has thus far mitigated swing and miss, so he can afford that slight uptick. There’s plus raw power potential and while he does make some soft contact, he evens it out with a high rate of hard contact in game. A plus runner now, Made will likely slow down just a tick as he fills out his big 6’2 frame but should stay above average in his early to mid 20’s. There’s an outside chance Made sticks at SS, although 3B or OF feels a bit more likely given the frame and somewhat raw actions at SS. 3B in particular makes sense as Made’s best tool is likely his arm. Overall, I could see Made winding up a 40 hit, 60 pop, 55 run bat with an above average approach and plus defensive at 3B with a genuine 70 arm. It’s star upside, but I tend to be a bit more wait-and-see with the hit tool than many. Made might be a top 100 prospect now, but if he can continue to perform like this, he could skyrocket up that list.


5. Emil Morales, SS, Dodgers

6’4 195 R/R DR

While technically born in Spain, Morales trained in the DR and signed for $1,897,500 as the Dodgers top signing in the 2024 class. Coming into the year, Morales received easily the most rave reviews of any prospect outside of De Vries in the class. He started the season slowly, but when he started to acclimate…he went OFF! Morales has some swing and miss in his 6’4 long-levered frame, but the power here is absurd. It’s easily a 70-grade power projection and could be plus raw now. He pairs that with the ability to put everything in the air and he makes for a very scary at bat. I think he will wind up closer to a 40-45 hitter than initially expected, but that’s more than fine when paired with 70 grade in-game power. Defensively, Morales isn’t a SS and is more likely a 3B/RF projection. At the end of the day, I realistically expect Morales to become the next Coby Mayo…and I love Coby Mayo. Very good prospect and perhaps the Dodgers best INT signing in recent memory. 

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 9/21 - 9/28

Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.

Between the Oakland A’s demonstrating a more aggressive approach, two relievers transferring into the rotation, and the debut of one of the league’s top pitching prospects, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!

More Aggressive Approaches Leading Unique For Oakland A’s Hitters

At the moment, it’s looking unlikely that the A’s will make the postseason. Will this mean the end of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman? Both are two years away from free agency, and certainly could be traded at any point given the organization’s history. That’s not what we’re trying to dive into today, though. For fantasy, what matters is the approach changes both have made this year, which follow a similar theme: more aggression. How this has affected each of these players, though, might not be equivalent.

Olson heading into the season was in a similar position to Chapman: good power and defense, but inconsistency when it came to batting average production. However, that’s completely changed this season. All of a sudden, the 27-year-old has become a natural contact hitter:

After never posting a strikeout rate below 24% in a full season, Olson is striking out just 17% of the time. The most encouraging part of this? It hasn’t come at an expense of power; his .274 ISO and 13.1% barrel are right on par with expectations. The key here? Where the contact improvement is coming from. Almost all of this contact improvement is coming in the zone (81.8%), as well as against fastballs (20.4% whiff); pitches that he can do damage against. I’d also note that his pull rate (39.5%) is the lowest it’s ever been, increasing his batting average floor even further.

All of a sudden, Olson profiles as someone who is going to hit for average, a lot of power, and, as a result, also score runs and accumulate RBI. Considering he’s still just 27-years-old, he has to be considered a top-30 dynasty asset moving forward. When you’re swinging and missing less and taking fewer called strikes, you’re going to strikeout less; that, as well as even sprays, are going to help your batting average. I’m all in on this improvement in his offensive profile, and would expect similar results in the upcoming seasons.

Matt Chapman, on the other hand, has a much more murky outlook. Yes, his defense is incredible and boosts his “real-life” value, yet, for fantasy, we’re hoping for high-end offensive statistics. Yet, we’re approaching his second straight season with a strikeout rate over 32%, while his batting average (.214) is a borderline liability. It’s unclear what led to the highest strikeout rate for Chapman, outside of struggling more on fastballs, but, regardless, we’re looking for him to produce enough in the power department to make up for it. On the bright side, it’s been much better as of late:

  • Through May: 9.2% barrel, .143 ISO

  • Since June: 16.1% barrel, .231 ISO

  • Since August: 20.2% barrel, .287 ISO

What has changed since then? Like Olson, it appears Chapman has embraced a more aggressive approach in the zone:

  • Through May: 65.4% In-Zone Swing

  • Since June: 71.4% In-Zone Swing

  • Since August: 73.7% In-Zone Swing

Chapman usually has been able to succeed with a more passive approach, but with the new contact issues, he cannot afford to take called strikes at the rate he previously did. I’m not sure what to expect from the batting average department, but he’s going to do MUCH better in the power department than a .198 ISO. The combination of power and consistent playing time remains enticing, while he gets a major boost in OBP leagues (12.7% BB). Regardless, his full-season results are probably doing him a disservice.

Ranger Suarez and Carlos Hernandez: Bullpen To Rotation

Honestly, my favorite part of the weekly dynasty notes, aside from all of it, is highlighting unheralded relievers in the “random relievers of the week” segment. Both Ranger Suarez and Carlos Hernandez have been featured in that segment, yet have ascended beyond that; both have been inserted in their team’s rotation. Yet, while Suarez has thrived in the rotation, Hernandez has not. What should we make of this? Let’s break it down.

The Phillies bullpen has struggled all season when it comes to finding a stable option in the late innings, which is where Suarez found himself. The 26-year-old totaled 11 saves during his time as a member of the Phillies, which is likely the main reason he was picked up in fantasy leagues. Yet, upon acquiring Ian Kennedy, Philadelphia moved Suarez into the rotation, and it’s astonishing how similar his results have been to when he was in the bullpen:

  • As SP: 24% K, 7.7% BB, 58.7% GB

  • As RP: 26.6% K, 8.9% BB, 63.5% GB

Less walks, more strikeouts; this all makes sense, but the change has been minimal. What has changed, though, is his pitch mix:

Since becoming a starting pitcher in August, Suarez has thrown fewer sinkers, and has increased his usage of off-speed pitches. This explains the fewer ground balls, though the arsenal is still strong. The lefty’s sinker induces a negative launch angle, while his fastball works more horizontally away from righties to induce whiffs (23.3%). The clear top two pitches, though, are the changeup and slider, which each have induced whiff rates over 40%. For what it’s worth, he’s having his best stretch yet in September, which aligns with decreased fastball usage. Should that pitch mix continue, you’re getting a pitcher who’ll induce ground balls at a very high rate and have a strong enough K-BB ratio. If that’s not someone you’re excited to have on your pitching staff, I don’t know what is!

Carlos Hernandez, on the other hand, hasn’t transitioned to the Royals’ rotation with the same success:

  • As SP: 15.8% K, 10.8% BB

  • As RP: 30.5% K, 12.7% BB

Hernandez’s command is slightly improved , albeit still not optimal, but the strikeout rate as a starter is a concern. This is a pitcher that, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic, essentially features four pitches rated average or better in stuff+. We’ve definitely seen his velocity decrease, while he hasn’t thrown his breaking balls as much in favor of more fastballs. I’d argue for more sinkers, per Sarris’ numbers, but, really, it all comes down to command. We’ve seen pitchers make that progression, but we’ve also seen some consistently hampered back by it. I’d look into stashing Hernandez based on potential for next season, though it’s very easy to see this end up as another “great stuff, poor command” scenario, a la Vince Velasquez and Jorge Lopez.

Don’t Overthink This: Shane Baz Is an Ace In The Making

I’ll keep this short, but, in my opinion, Shane Baz is easily the best pitcher to debut this season. That’s right: better than Alek Manoah, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan, and Luis Garcia. First, there are Baz’s minor-league numbers in Double-A and Triple-A this year:

  • 78.2 IP, 37.9% K, 4.4% BB

I’m sorry, what? Surely, he wouldn’t start his MLB career at such a high level:

  • 10.2 IP, 36.8% K, 2.6% BB

Simply put, Baz’s arsenal is ridiculous. His fastball sits at 97 MPH, and features 2.6 inches of extra vertical movement compared to the average fastball with similar characteristics. Meanwhile, he also has a vertical curveball and well-balanced slider, two distinct pitches, in addition to a satisfactory changeup that he likely won’t need due to the prowess of his two breaking balls. Then, you add in elite command into that profile, which also likely means going deeper in games? This is a top-100 dynasty player, thank you very much.

I know this may seem soon, but what else does Baz need to prove? His fastball command is cited as not being a problem, which would be the only slight concern (vertical fastball, more barrels allowed), and there isn’t a single pitch in his arsenal that won’t miss bats; this decreases his volatility. Don’t overthink this; Shane Baz has all the makings of an ace, and you should feel comfortable valuing him at an EXTREMELY high level.

Random Relievers Of The Week

We’re down to the final weeks of the “random reliever” of the week part of the weekly notes. With that, let’s go out with a bang! These two relievers may succeed in different ways, but they should both be on your radar.

High-end lefty relievers are always coveted, which brings us to Francisco Perez. The 24-year-old posted a 38.4% strikeout rate between Double-A and High-A this season, earning his promotion to the MLB level. Originally a starter through 2019, Cleveland moved him to the bullpen, and are now benefitting from the results. Perez’ fastball sits at about 93 MPH, but it’s the vertical movement (1.6 inches above average). This has allowed to post extremely high pop-up rates in the minors, and is a pitch he’ll lean on heavily in the MLB. Meanwhile, the slider, also a vertical offering, mirrors almost perfectly off his fastball, and will likely be the pitch he goes to for a swing and miss. As a lefty, you’ll hope for more changeup refinement, but the fastball-slider combination is fascinating. Given his history as a starter, he likely can work multiple innings, and his lefty status increases his chances of playing a meaningful role in Cleveland’s bullpen next year.

The Angels weren’t buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but they did make one small trade, shipping lefty Tony Watson to the Giants. The return included multiple relievers, yet the top reliever in the trade was Jose Marte. Similar to Perez, Marte was stretched out as a starting pitcher through 2019, and he’s transitioned to the bullpen quite well in 2021. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 36.5% strikeout rate and 2.21 FIP, and has continued to miss bats in his small sample size (4 IP, 27.8% K) in the MLB. For Marte, the arsenal all centers around his sinker. It’s a power sinker at 97 MPH that should miss more bats than the average sinker, but, most of all, induce ground balls and limit barrels. With a slider, cutter, and 4-seamer that he can elevate, it’s a diverse mix of pitches with different objectives, and I expect him to be an important part of the Angels’ bullpen next year

Other Notes

  • We discussed the need for Casey Mize to make a tweak last week, and that’s exactly what he’s doing:

This change is something to keep an eye on. More 4-seam fastballs would mean increased whiffs for Mize, but at the cost of some ground balls. I think it’s a sacrifice he may need to make - his splitter can help him still induce ground balls - as he’ll need to increase his strikeout rate to maintain a low ERA next season.

  • A deep-league sleeper? Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor. The 27-year-old performed at a high level in the minors, and has done well (104 wRC+) in the majors this season. His 8.1% barrel is adequate, but when it comes with a pull-oriented approach (43%) and a high-under% (30.8%), it’s clear that his .221 ISO isn’t a fluke. The power-speed combination here is very enticing, and he also doesn’t strike out a lot (21.8%). He’s definitely someone worth watching with Avisail Garcia set to be a free agent for the Brewers this offseason.

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 9/14-9/21

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 9/14-9/21

A top-100 dynasty asset no one is talking about, Jarred Kelenic and Casey Mize, buy-low/sell-high, and much more in this week's edition of dynasty baseball notes!

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 9/7 to 9/13

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 9/7 to 9/13

Bobby Dalbec's breakout, the resurgence of Josh Bell and Jorge Soler, why Luis Patino and Edward Cabrera need to make some tweaks, and much more in this week's edition of dynasty baseball notes

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/31-9/7

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/31-9/7

Luis Robert, Randy Arozarena, Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ty France, Jeimer Candelario, and much more in this week's edition of dynasty baseball notes.

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/24-8/31

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/24-8/31

Why Christian Yelich is back, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Gavin Lux struggling, the formulation of a superstar rotation in Miami, and much more in this week's edition of dynasty baseball notes!

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/17 to 8/24

Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.

Between a hyped-up superstar coming into his own, high-end outfielders heading in separate directions, and intriguing pitch-mix changes, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!

The Wander Boy Has Arrived

When you’re labeled with an 80-grade hit tool and are labeled as a generational prospect, it’s expected that you reach your potential immediately in the big leagues. Thus, when Wander Franco posted a 65 wRC+ through his 66 first-half plate appearances, it’s understandable that many were disappointed. However, the “Wander Boy” has officially arrived; a superstar has been born.

Since the start of August, here are Franco’s overall numbers:

  • .310/.380/.551, 153 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .211 ISO, 7.6% BB, 8.9% K, 7.8% Barrel

Remember the elite contact skills Franco was cited having in the minors? Well, he’s showing it. Although his chase rate (32%) remains high, he’s now swinging in the zone around 75% of the time, which demonstrates an aggressive approach rather than an undisciplined one. Really, the greatest change here has been his success against fastballs.

chart-391.png
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The sample size in June is very small, but it’s pretty easy to establish a logical narrative here: Franco needed time to adjust to MLB-caliber fastballs, and he now has done that. Meanwhile, while he had been a complete liability vs righties earlier on, he has posted a .360 wOBA and 11.1% barrel rate as a lefty this month. Franco has officially taken off as a superstar player, which is fabulous to see. In fact, you could call it WANDERFUL.

Pitch-Mix Changes: Brad Keller and Kyle Freeland

Remember when Kyle Freeland was a Cy-Young contender and Brad Keller posted a 3.08 ERA in his rookie season? Those were good times. I don’t know about you, but I’d like to get back to those times! With recent pitch-mix changes, they might not be ALL the way back, yet they’re back to being productive pitchers, which cannot go under the radar.

Regression was expected from Freeland’s 2.85 ERA in 2018, which came with a 4.35 SIERA. However, no one expected him to post a 6.73 ERA, while his 15.1% strikeout rate in 2020 didn’t provide extra reason for optimism. With a 9.58 ERA, 5.92 SIERA, and 11.3% strikeout rate through his first five starts of the year, the 28-year-old had become a “do not start” pitcher regardless of the matchup. Since then, however, Freeland has posted a 24.2% strikeout rate and just a 4.8% walk rate. The big change? An increase to his curveball rate. He’s thrown it an extra 10% of the time, reducing his changeup and slider usage in that span. With a .133 wOBA and 39.5% whiff rate, the curveball has been an absolute weapon; it's also been inducing chases (40%) and ground balls (54.5%) at an elite level. Will this continue? It’s not ideal for evaluation purposes that he’s faced the Mariners, Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, and Diamondbacks during that span. However, he’s also held his own against the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres, and has been actually better at Coors Field this season. Right now, Freeland is throwing strikes, missing bats, going deep in games, and inducing ground balls; that’s an excellent combination! While his overall numbers still aren’t fantastic, make sure to add him or buy-low on him now!

As for Keller, the 26-year-old may have a 5.43 ERA for the season, but that doesn’t depict his skills properly. Since the start of July, he’s posted a 3.35 ERA with solid K-BB numbers (24.8% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate). What caused this spike in production?

chart-391.png

Oh, I see. Before this season, Keller’s slider wOBA allowed has been .233 or under in every year; as opposed to his fastballs and changeup, it’s clearly a strong offering and obviously his best pitch. Similarly to Freeland, buy into his stock before the majority of the fantasy community notices the clear change in pitch usage.

Corner Outfielders: Good News and Bad News

In dynasty, three corner outfielders that are held in similar regard would be Michael Conforto, Austin Meadows, and Mike Yastrzemski. Believe it or not, despite having the lowest wRC+ (100) of the bunch, Conforto is the one I’m the most optimistic about moving forward.

Although Conforto has struggled this season, it isn’t exactly clear why. Well, outside of mostly poor luck. His .267 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 11.3 HR/FB rate, despite the fact his batted-ball numbers are all strong. In fact, he’s actually running the lowest strikeout rate (22%) of his career, in addition to fewer pop-ups (4.8%). The ballpark plays a role here, but as a pending free agent, this could all be fixed soon! If the opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to try to buy low on him!

With a 117 wRC+ and .221 ISO this season, it would appear that Austin Meadows was having a fine season for the Rays, which he has. However, I’m still a bit concerned about the 26-year-old moving forward. Since the start of June, he’s been a league-average hitter with a 99 wRC+ and .170 ISO, and, most concerning, just a 5.7% barrel. The problem? It stems back to same issues he had in 2020: not barreling fastballs.

chart-392.png

Meadows has a clear issue when it comes to popping up fastballs, something he didn’t deal with in his peak 2019 season. During that span, his 12.5% barrel, 8.5% solid contact, and 27.1% flare/burner illustrated the perfect contract trajectory when it comes to hitting for average and power. However, with his bat path is getting under the ball (40.5% 2020, 37.8% 2021), which is depleting his ability to hit for average. Now, he’s more of a one-dimensional player geared for power, yet that part of his game hasn’t been great either. Not great, Bob.

Mike Yastrzemski, meanwhile, is similar to Meadows in that he is currently struggling, though his issues stem to only August- he’s posted a 55 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances this month (that’s a lot of 55s!). Obviously, its a small sample, but with just a 105 wRC+, Yastrzemski clearly has been a step down from previous seasons. The problem? Getting under the ball too much. His 32.4% under rate suggests that his swing is currently too steep, which hurts his ability to hit for average, though what concerns me the most is his struggles against lefties. He thrived against them for the first two years of his career, but he’s currently running a 54 wRC+ against southpaws this year. As someone who’s consistently struggled versus lefties, it appears the book is out on him:

chart-392.png

Yastrzemski will get out of his current funk, but will he do enough to not profile as just a platoon player moving forward? I’m less optimistic. He’ll be on the right side of the platoon still, but unless he produces at an elite level against righties, it will be difficult for him to stack up volume statistics to stand out compared to other outfielders, especially in non-daily leagues. Plus, with the new trajectory. of contact, his fantasy value was already impacted by not hitting for average. He’ll provide you with plenty of power, draws walks, and plays all three outfield positions. For fantasy, though, he’s starting to become a one-dimensional platoon player, which is not ideal.

Random Relievers Of The Week

The Rays have a way for finding relievers out of a haystack, and it appears they have done so again with these two pitchers.

For the major cost of cash considerations, Tampa Bay was able to bring in Shawn Armstrong from the Orioles. Naturally, in his first five innings with the team, he’s struck out eight batters with just two baserunners allowed. With a vertical fastball that has thrived this year with a 34.2% whiff, he’s gone to it more often since joining Tampa Bay, and I hope he continues to do so:

Since joining the Rays, Armstrong has increased his average fastball release height, a clear sign of proper coaching and optimizing his arsenal; he’s throwing his cutter more down in the zone to limit damage as well. Now that his raw skills are meshed with the Rays’ pitching prowess, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 30-year-old morph into a successful multi-inning relief weapon. In Tampa Bay, that means a heavy workload with the potential to vulture wins, giving him intriguing fantasy potential.

Speaking of vertical pitchers the Rays have picked up this year, how about Louis Head? The 31-year-old was selling solar panels and assuming his career was over, but Tampa gave him a chance, and he hasn’t looked back. In 25.2 innings, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA and 27.4% whiff rate, and has worked his way into being trusted more and more in Tampa Bay’s bullpen. It’s a two-pitch mix with a vertical fastball (1.8 inches more than average) and slider (3.1 inches more than average), which works when both pitches are so successful. The verticality of his arsenal has done wonders for his trajectory of contact allowed, including a 49.4% under rate and allowing him to neutralize line drives, which may be an actually legitimate skill given his arsenal and allow him to overachieve his xFIP consistently. If he continues to see usage as an opener and in multi-inning stints, he also could be an interest asset for fantasy down the stretch this season.

Other Notes

  • Earlier in the season, I was quite high on Rangers infielder Yonny Hernandez, yet soured on him as he struck out more often and struggled a bit in Triple-A. Now, though, he’s up in the big leagues and has been exactly what I thought he’d been. As evidenced by his 3.9% swinging strike rate, opposite field sprays, and 36.2% flare/burner rate in his 58 plate appearances, he’s geared to hit for average, and will also steal some bases as well. This aligns much closer with the player he was throughout the minors, and it looks we can expect for him to be a unicorn in a game that continues to shift towards a high power/low contact style of play. He’s definitely someone undervalued I’d be targeting as a high-floor middle infielder with superb contact skills.

  • For what it’s worth, Josh Bell and Miguel Sano have each consistently cut down on their strikeout rate throughout the season. Hopefully this shows up with them becoming more valuable fantasy assets heading into next year.

  • A good buy-low candidate? Jeff McNeil of the Mets. His .275 BABIP and expected statistics are impacted by a 22.7% line drive rate, which is well below his career norm. I’d expect that to eventually regress positively and for him to start to hit for more average, with slightly more power as well.

  • It’s been a very difficult season for Spencer Howard, who has gone from a future staple of the Phillies rotation to trying to turn things around as a Ranger. He’s added a sinker now, but it’s hard to remain optimistic until he cuts down on his fastball usage and goes down into a game. For perspective, he has yet to go past four innings in a game, and the last time he even reached that mark was nearly two months ago. At this point, I’d understand selling him if someone still buys into his prospect pedigree

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/10-8/17

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/10-8/17

A deep dive into Zac Gallen and Pete Alonso, encouraging signs with Marcus Stroman and Marco Gonzales, an outfielder to cut bait with, and much more in this week's edition of dynasty baseball notes.

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/3 to 8/10

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/3 to 8/10

Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Lowe, Jarred Kelenic, Abraham Toro, Luis Gil, and much more with this week's edition of dynasty baseball notes.

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 7/27 to 8/3

Dynasty Baseball Notes: 7/27 to 8/3

A worrying sign about Carlos Rodon, a RP with an elite GB pitch, the fuel behind Sean Manaea's success and more in this week's Dynasty Baseball Notes!

2021 Fantasy Trade Deadline Tracker

2021 Fantasy Trade Deadline Tracker

2021 MLB Trade deadline tracker and the dynasty baseball impact it has