Dynasty Baseball Notes: 9/21 - 9/28

Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.

Between the Oakland A’s demonstrating a more aggressive approach, two relievers transferring into the rotation, and the debut of one of the league’s top pitching prospects, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!

More Aggressive Approaches Leading Unique For Oakland A’s Hitters

At the moment, it’s looking unlikely that the A’s will make the postseason. Will this mean the end of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman? Both are two years away from free agency, and certainly could be traded at any point given the organization’s history. That’s not what we’re trying to dive into today, though. For fantasy, what matters is the approach changes both have made this year, which follow a similar theme: more aggression. How this has affected each of these players, though, might not be equivalent.

Olson heading into the season was in a similar position to Chapman: good power and defense, but inconsistency when it came to batting average production. However, that’s completely changed this season. All of a sudden, the 27-year-old has become a natural contact hitter:

After never posting a strikeout rate below 24% in a full season, Olson is striking out just 17% of the time. The most encouraging part of this? It hasn’t come at an expense of power; his .274 ISO and 13.1% barrel are right on par with expectations. The key here? Where the contact improvement is coming from. Almost all of this contact improvement is coming in the zone (81.8%), as well as against fastballs (20.4% whiff); pitches that he can do damage against. I’d also note that his pull rate (39.5%) is the lowest it’s ever been, increasing his batting average floor even further.

All of a sudden, Olson profiles as someone who is going to hit for average, a lot of power, and, as a result, also score runs and accumulate RBI. Considering he’s still just 27-years-old, he has to be considered a top-30 dynasty asset moving forward. When you’re swinging and missing less and taking fewer called strikes, you’re going to strikeout less; that, as well as even sprays, are going to help your batting average. I’m all in on this improvement in his offensive profile, and would expect similar results in the upcoming seasons.

Matt Chapman, on the other hand, has a much more murky outlook. Yes, his defense is incredible and boosts his “real-life” value, yet, for fantasy, we’re hoping for high-end offensive statistics. Yet, we’re approaching his second straight season with a strikeout rate over 32%, while his batting average (.214) is a borderline liability. It’s unclear what led to the highest strikeout rate for Chapman, outside of struggling more on fastballs, but, regardless, we’re looking for him to produce enough in the power department to make up for it. On the bright side, it’s been much better as of late:

• Through May: 9.2% barrel, .143 ISO

• Since June: 16.1% barrel, .231 ISO

• Since August: 20.2% barrel, .287 ISO

What has changed since then? Like Olson, it appears Chapman has embraced a more aggressive approach in the zone:

• Through May: 65.4% In-Zone Swing

• Since June: 71.4% In-Zone Swing

• Since August: 73.7% In-Zone Swing

Chapman usually has been able to succeed with a more passive approach, but with the new contact issues, he cannot afford to take called strikes at the rate he previously did. I’m not sure what to expect from the batting average department, but he’s going to do MUCH better in the power department than a .198 ISO. The combination of power and consistent playing time remains enticing, while he gets a major boost in OBP leagues (12.7% BB). Regardless, his full-season results are probably doing him a disservice.

Ranger Suarez and Carlos Hernandez: Bullpen To Rotation

Honestly, my favorite part of the weekly dynasty notes, aside from all of it, is highlighting unheralded relievers in the “random relievers of the week” segment. Both Ranger Suarez and Carlos Hernandez have been featured in that segment, yet have ascended beyond that; both have been inserted in their team’s rotation. Yet, while Suarez has thrived in the rotation, Hernandez has not. What should we make of this? Let’s break it down.

The Phillies bullpen has struggled all season when it comes to finding a stable option in the late innings, which is where Suarez found himself. The 26-year-old totaled 11 saves during his time as a member of the Phillies, which is likely the main reason he was picked up in fantasy leagues. Yet, upon acquiring Ian Kennedy, Philadelphia moved Suarez into the rotation, and it’s astonishing how similar his results have been to when he was in the bullpen:

• As SP: 24% K, 7.7% BB, 58.7% GB

• As RP: 26.6% K, 8.9% BB, 63.5% GB

Less walks, more strikeouts; this all makes sense, but the change has been minimal. What has changed, though, is his pitch mix:

Since becoming a starting pitcher in August, Suarez has thrown fewer sinkers, and has increased his usage of off-speed pitches. This explains the fewer ground balls, though the arsenal is still strong. The lefty’s sinker induces a negative launch angle, while his fastball works more horizontally away from righties to induce whiffs (23.3%). The clear top two pitches, though, are the changeup and slider, which each have induced whiff rates over 40%. For what it’s worth, he’s having his best stretch yet in September, which aligns with decreased fastball usage. Should that pitch mix continue, you’re getting a pitcher who’ll induce ground balls at a very high rate and have a strong enough K-BB ratio. If that’s not someone you’re excited to have on your pitching staff, I don’t know what is!

Carlos Hernandez, on the other hand, hasn’t transitioned to the Royals’ rotation with the same success:

• As SP: 15.8% K, 10.8% BB

• As RP: 30.5% K, 12.7% BB

Hernandez’s command is slightly improved , albeit still not optimal, but the strikeout rate as a starter is a concern. This is a pitcher that, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic, essentially features four pitches rated average or better in stuff+. We’ve definitely seen his velocity decrease, while he hasn’t thrown his breaking balls as much in favor of more fastballs. I’d argue for more sinkers, per Sarris’ numbers, but, really, it all comes down to command. We’ve seen pitchers make that progression, but we’ve also seen some consistently hampered back by it. I’d look into stashing Hernandez based on potential for next season, though it’s very easy to see this end up as another “great stuff, poor command” scenario, a la Vince Velasquez and Jorge Lopez.

Don’t Overthink This: Shane Baz Is an Ace In The Making

I’ll keep this short, but, in my opinion, Shane Baz is easily the best pitcher to debut this season. That’s right: better than Alek Manoah, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan, and Luis Garcia. First, there are Baz’s minor-league numbers in Double-A and Triple-A this year:

• 78.2 IP, 37.9% K, 4.4% BB

I’m sorry, what? Surely, he wouldn’t start his MLB career at such a high level:

• 10.2 IP, 36.8% K, 2.6% BB

Simply put, Baz’s arsenal is ridiculous. His fastball sits at 97 MPH, and features 2.6 inches of extra vertical movement compared to the average fastball with similar characteristics. Meanwhile, he also has a vertical curveball and well-balanced slider, two distinct pitches, in addition to a satisfactory changeup that he likely won’t need due to the prowess of his two breaking balls. Then, you add in elite command into that profile, which also likely means going deeper in games? This is a top-100 dynasty player, thank you very much.

I know this may seem soon, but what else does Baz need to prove? His fastball command is cited as not being a problem, which would be the only slight concern (vertical fastball, more barrels allowed), and there isn’t a single pitch in his arsenal that won’t miss bats; this decreases his volatility. Don’t overthink this; Shane Baz has all the makings of an ace, and you should feel comfortable valuing him at an EXTREMELY high level.

Random Relievers Of The Week

We’re down to the final weeks of the “random reliever” of the week part of the weekly notes. With that, let’s go out with a bang! These two relievers may succeed in different ways, but they should both be on your radar.

High-end lefty relievers are always coveted, which brings us to Francisco Perez. The 24-year-old posted a 38.4% strikeout rate between Double-A and High-A this season, earning his promotion to the MLB level. Originally a starter through 2019, Cleveland moved him to the bullpen, and are now benefitting from the results. Perez’ fastball sits at about 93 MPH, but it’s the vertical movement (1.6 inches above average). This has allowed to post extremely high pop-up rates in the minors, and is a pitch he’ll lean on heavily in the MLB. Meanwhile, the slider, also a vertical offering, mirrors almost perfectly off his fastball, and will likely be the pitch he goes to for a swing and miss. As a lefty, you’ll hope for more changeup refinement, but the fastball-slider combination is fascinating. Given his history as a starter, he likely can work multiple innings, and his lefty status increases his chances of playing a meaningful role in Cleveland’s bullpen next year.

The Angels weren’t buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but they did make one small trade, shipping lefty Tony Watson to the Giants. The return included multiple relievers, yet the top reliever in the trade was Jose Marte. Similar to Perez, Marte was stretched out as a starting pitcher through 2019, and he’s transitioned to the bullpen quite well in 2021. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 36.5% strikeout rate and 2.21 FIP, and has continued to miss bats in his small sample size (4 IP, 27.8% K) in the MLB. For Marte, the arsenal all centers around his sinker. It’s a power sinker at 97 MPH that should miss more bats than the average sinker, but, most of all, induce ground balls and limit barrels. With a slider, cutter, and 4-seamer that he can elevate, it’s a diverse mix of pitches with different objectives, and I expect him to be an important part of the Angels’ bullpen next year

Other Notes

• We discussed the need for Casey Mize to make a tweak last week, and that’s exactly what he’s doing:

This change is something to keep an eye on. More 4-seam fastballs would mean increased whiffs for Mize, but at the cost of some ground balls. I think it’s a sacrifice he may need to make - his splitter can help him still induce ground balls - as he’ll need to increase his strikeout rate to maintain a low ERA next season.

• A deep-league sleeper? Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor. The 27-year-old performed at a high level in the minors, and has done well (104 wRC+) in the majors this season. His 8.1% barrel is adequate, but when it comes with a pull-oriented approach (43%) and a high-under% (30.8%), it’s clear that his .221 ISO isn’t a fluke. The power-speed combination here is very enticing, and he also doesn’t strike out a lot (21.8%). He’s definitely someone worth watching with Avisail Garcia set to be a free agent for the Brewers this offseason.