Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between pitchers whose velocity is the difference between them being aces or not, young hitters not panning out, or young pitchers putting it all together (funny converse between the two), there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Monitoring Velocity: Sean Manaea and Carlos Rodon
Heading into the season, neither Sean Manaea or Carlos Rodon was getting much hype in redraft or fantasy leagues, and it’s easy to see why. After all, they combined for just around 122 innings between 2019 and 2020 due to injuries, while neither was particularly impressive last season. Yet, here we are. Both pitchers are the best versions of themselves, with main change being the cause of it.
Let us start with Manaea, who was the more heralded of the two players heading into the season. That being said, he had never struck out 21% or more of the batter he had faced in his first three seasons as a starter; he’s generally been someone who succeeds with a low walk total rather than blowing hitters away. This year has been a different story, however. The 29-year-old boasts a 27.2% strikeout rate, has continued to not walk batters (5.8% BB), in addition to a career-low 3.19 FIP. What has changed? The Oakland lefty has tweaked his pitch mix somewhat, introducing a curveball to replace his slider in 2020, but besides that, the pitch usage is the same. Really, it has to do with his velocity:
2017 Sinker Velocity: 91.7 MPH
2018: 90.4 MPH
2019 (29.2 IP): 89.8 MPH
2020: 90.4 MPH
2021: 91.9 MPH
That sinker velocity is now up to 93.2 MPH! If that holds, it’s very easy to explain the increase in strikeouts, though without a change in process, there also is more risk here- what happens if the velocity increase goes away? With that in mind, feel comfortable holding Manaea as of now, but constantly be monitoring his velocity to make sure a decline isn’t on the horizon.
That also is clearly the case with Carlos Rodon. As the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, expectations were high for him the be a pillar of the White Sox rotation, but in the first six seasons of his career, he only managed to throw over 140 innings once, while his career 4.26 FIP didn’t scream “ace”. This season, though, has been a much different case. In 104.2 innings, his strikeout rate is up to 35.2% with a 28.6% K-BB ratio, while FIP sits at 2.68. Even more so than Manaea, it’s pretty easy to see the cause of this:
If the velocity holds then, we are in good shape! The problem is, that might not be the case:
This is definitely something worth monitoring, especially since this season marks a massive jump in innings for Rodon. You don’t want to say that one factor could make or break his outlook moving forward, yet it certainly will play a clear role in determining if Rodon can continue to be the anchor of your pitching staff moving forward. For now, all we can do is wait and see.
Time To Cut Bait With These Struggling Young Hitters?
The AL East has its fair share of young star power and, as expected, the Blue Jays and Red Sox have showcased plenty of it this season. Between Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and others, games between the two teams are as exciting as it gets. Sadly, though this isn’t the case with every young player; Cavan Biggio and Bobby Dalbec have not performed up to expectations this season.
The player with the higher projection coming into the year was certainly Biggio, who was seen of one of the three young pillars of Toronto’s rising offensive juggernaut. Yet, here we are, and he has just a 84 wRC+, .296 wOBA, and has been worth precisely 0.0 fWAR this season. That is far from ideal. Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot to indicate future improvement. Biggio’s passiveness leads to a lot of called strikes (20.1%), and with his inability to make contact with non-fastballs (33.8% whiff breaking balls, 50.8% whiff offspeed), that leads to a lot of strikeouts (26.9% K). Considering that his power (.178 ISO projection from THE BAT X) isn’t superb and he’ll almost certainly finish with single-digit stolen bases, the low batting average doesn’t work well here. The positional flexibility is great, but outside of OBP leagues, where he benefits from a high walk rate, it is hard to be sold on him as a key fantasy asset.
Then, there is Dalbec, who is in an even more precarious situation. Biggio can at least pride himself on playing multiple positions, yet Dalbec only has first base eligibility. In other words, he needs to hit, and do so often. Instead, he’s sporting a 74 wRC+, 37.8% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rates, and .283 ISO. Yes, the batted-ball data is amazing (career 18.2% barrel). Unfortunately, when you make contact on just 60.3% of your swings, that matters far less. I buy his ability to hit for more power moving forward, but the batting average/on-base percentage is such a burden at a deep offensive position. Especially with Kyle Schwarber likely to play first base upon being traded to Boston when healthy, Dalbec’s job is in serious jeopardy, and it’s hard to see a win-now team giving someone who has been a below-replacement level player another chance to be a starter again next year. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed, consider shopping Dalbec for anyone who may see an opportunity to grab a strong minor-league performer who hits the ball hard; it’s sadly difficult to see him hitting at an above-average rate, which is extremely suboptimal at first base.
Pitch Mix Changes Working Out For Young Pitchers
As we saw with Sean Manaea and Carlos Rodon, velocity gain is generally the most direct way to become a more effective pitcher. However, it isn’t always the most stable way, nor is it is the only way. A pitch-mix change is actually the most common way a pitcher breaks out, which makes sense. Practically every pitcher has a strength they can rely on, yet they need to actually utilize their arsenal probably in games to reach maximum potential. Luckily, that appears to be happening for Luis Patiño and Logan Webb.
When the Rays acquired Patiño as the main centerpiece is the Blake Snell trade, it was clear they valued him significantly. As he failed to cement himself in the rotation, though, his fantasy stock appeared to be down, especially after he struggled (5.61 FIP) in 17.1 MLB innings with the Padres last year. He’s made some tweaks, however, and currently sports much better numbers: 31.2 IP, 26.7% K, 7.4% BB, 3.94 SIERA. Since being re-promoted in July, here is his current pitch usage:
54.7% FB, 32.5% SL, 7.3% CH, 4.8% CRV
Last year, Patiño threw his changeup as much as his slider, but the breaking ball appears to the much better offerings. The Rays have proven to be fine with their pitchers being mainly two-pitch pitchers, so it’s nice to see Patiño succeeding as such. Furthermore, he’s transformed his slider into a sharper, “cutter-like” offering, which has led to more success in terms of hard contact this season. Over time, he’ll need improved command to lead to less power hit against him (9.2% barrel), yet how are you not going to bet on such a talented pitcher putting it all together.
Webb, too, has made a pitch-mix change to become the best version of himself, albeit in different fashion. After failing to solidify his spot in the rotation initially, the 24-year-old has been terrific this season, posting a 3.54 SIERA, 16.5% K-BB ratio, and 3.34 FIP this season. Sure, he’s able to miss bats and limit walks, but for Webb, the key difference from others with K-BB ratios like his is the ground balls. At the moment, he’s inducing ground balls at a 61.5% rate, with a change in how he’s using his arsenal leading to better results:
We’re generally told that “throwing sinkers is a bad thing”, but if your four-seam fastball is ineffective, induce those ground balls! Webb’s sinker and changeup induce a ground ball at rates of 67.6% and 69.1%, respectively, while his slider (45% whiff) is his main pitch to put batters away. This is a complete arsenal that limits power, strikes batters out, and is featured by a pitcher who can limit free passes. Especially pitching in San Francisco, it is hard not to buy this profile long term.
Random Relievers Of The Week
Here we are with another edition of my favorite segment of the dynasty baseball notes: random relievers! These two pitchers are completely different, with one projecting as a potential high-leverage reliever and the other a multi-inning weapon.
The Cubs just underwent a massive exodus of talent, particularly in the bullpen. Plenty of young pitchers will now get the opportunity to shine, but look no further than rookie Manuel Rodriguez. The 24-year-old has only pitched in two games this season, including allowing a walk off homer on Sunday, yet there’s a reason he was chosen to be in the Futures Game this season. Starting in 2018, he has a 31.3% strikeout rate in the minors, while also demonstrating the ability to induce ground balls. Meanwhile, the arsenal is interesting. In a powerful 98 MPH “turbo sinker”, Rodriguez has a pitch that can get ground balls and induce enough whiffs, a la Jose Alvarado, while his slider is a superb vertical pitch:
Codi Heuer is also in the mix, yet if Rodriguez continues to miss bats, perhaps he can get some save opportunities next season. If not, he projects as someone who can boost your strikeout totals out of the bullpen in deeper leagues. Still just 24-years-old, keep an eye on him.
On the contrary, 29-year-old Phillips Valdez won’t profile as someone you’d see in the Futures Game, nor is he going to blow you away. Nevertheless, he’s able to pitch multiple innings and limit barrels (5.1%), thanks in large part to a changeup that is guiding him to a 61.3% ground ball rate allowed:
Projections might not love Valdez, but he also is throwing 55.7% changeups now, a noticeable difference from previous years. Meanwhile, he was a starting pitcher for most his career in the minors, which may also cause projections to be too low on him. I don’t expect him to post elite K-BB ratios or be a late-inning reliever, but he’ll eat multiple innings of decent quality, making him valuable in deeper leagues that roster a number of relievers. It will be interesting to see how far his changeup can take him.
Other Notes:
How about a deep sleeper? Connor Joe may have struggled in his MLB debut with the Giants, but the 28-year-old is now getting a shot in the outfield with the Rockies. Starting in 2018, he has posted a 143 wRC+, .230 ISO, and strong plate discipline metrics (14.9% BB, 19.3% K) in Double-A and Triple-A, mainly at the latter level. Meanwhile, in his first 97 MLB plate appearances, he’s shown some power (10.9% barrel), plate discipline (18.5% chase), and contact versus fastballs (12% whiff). Simply based on his minor-league production, he’s worth an add in 20-team leagues.
The Nationals have traded many veteran players away, which means opportunities for young players. Expect Luis Garcia and Carter Kieboom to be starting infielders for them, as the team has every incentive to give the former top prospects a chance to establish themselves in the MLB. I’m more optimistic on Garcia, who has demonstrated contact ability and has raw power (though it is suppressed by his high ground-ball rates). I can see him as someone who hits for average with enough power and speed, while Kieboom will hold more value in OBP leagues with a higher walk rate with less contact. Eddy Almaguer and Matt Thompson spoke about them in the latest Dynasty Podcast for our $5+ patrons.
It is time to sell Tyler Naquin. The 30-year-old was a fantastic story in the first month of the season with a 145 wRC+, but he’s been posted an 85 wRC+ since, struggling with chases (41.7% O-Swing), contact (12% swinging strike), and ground balls (48.9% GB). At this point, he is average at best when it comes to batting average, isn’t hitting for enough power, nor is he a massive threat on the basis; he also doesn’t play vs lefties. At this point, expecting his pre-May version of himself to come back might be asking too much.
It’s been a tough season for the Twins, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have individual players performing well. 28-year-old outfielder Max Kepler has posted a career high 11.7% barrel, also providing speed (8 SB in 296 PA) and hitting at the top of the lineup. Especially in points leagues (where he doesn’t strike out a lot) or OBP leagues, he’s a clear player on the rise for me. Meanwhile, catcher Mitch Garver was a polarizing player coming into the season coming off of a superb 2019 and poor 2020, but with little track record before that. Luckily, his true talent appears to lie with the former. In 162 plate appearances this year, he’s posted almost identical numbers to 2019, demonstrating elite power (16.7% barrel) with enough contact (27.8% whiff) to not be a liability when it comes to batting average. As someone who has certainly gone under the radar following the difficult 2020 season and dealing with injuries right now, he provides you with the pop at the catching position to make him a player to target immediately. Even in a timeshare, you aren’t going to find many catchers with the offensive numbers that he is capable of posting