Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between two high-end outfielders making more contact, well-regarded players heading in separate directions, and intriguing mid-tier hitters, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Robert and Arozarena: More Contact, More Damage
Two of the most coveted outfielders in dynasty baseball right now would be Luis Robert and Randy Arozarena. Both of these players have tremendous raw power and speed, but there was still concern about their overall refinement with regards to their contact skills. However, they’re beginning to mitigate those concerns.
Considered to be an elite dynasty prospect, Robert slightly underwhelmed in his rookie 2020 season, posting just a 101 wRC+. The power (.202 ISO) was fine, but with just a .233 batting average, he wasn’t profiling as the five-tool fantasy asset he was proclaimed to be. The clear problem? A 32.2% strikeout rate. Robert’s raw power was going to help him hit for a higher average than his contact rate suggests he should, but there are limits when you can’t make enough contact. This takes us to 2021, where Robert’s results in 198 plate appearances have been much better. His swinging strike rate is down over seven percentage points, while his strikeout rate is down to 22.2%.
So, what has changed? Interestingly, most of Robert’s contact gains have come in the zone. His zone contact rate is up from 68.5% to 85.1%, which actually is an above-average clip. To make that much improvement in a short period is impressive, and had led to him doing much more damage against fastballs. Take a look at his whiff rate charts from 2020 compared to 2021.
To go from one of the worst hitters in the league in terms of making contact in the zone to an above-average one is an astonishing improvement. I still have concerns about Robert’s high chase rates (career 40.3%), but with significant improved contact skills, elite raw power (which helps with power but also batting average), and speed, he appears to be on his way to meeting lofty expectations. There’s a lot to be excited about moving forward which such an exciting talent, even if the plate discipline doesn’t suggest him aging well.
Arozarena, meanwhile, had a much better 2020 season, breaking postseason records for the Rays. That increased his stock significantly, but it almost seems like he’s gone under the radar with other premier talents emerging. Quietly, the the 26-year-old is also blossoming into the best version of himself:
Ignore September, which has been just a few games. The fact of the matter is that Arozarena is barreling the ball more and making more contact. That’s quite the combination! Since the start of July, he’s running a 13.1% barrel, 11% swinging strike, and 158 wRC+. Would I like for him to take less called strikes and hit the ball in the air more. Yes, but if that was the case, he’d be a top-ten dynasty asset potentially. As is, he’s a top-50 dynasty player who I’m taking over Jarred Kelenic, Trent Grisham, and other marquee players.
The Fall of Ryan McMahon and The Rise of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Do you want the good news or bad news first? For whatever reason, we always pick the bad news first, so let’s start there!
Ryan McMahon seemed to be breaking out when he posted a .368 wOBA over the first month of the season. After all, he demonstrated power with an 11.2% barrel in 2020, but was plagued by a 34.2% strikeout rate. With the strikeout rate down to 22.7%, he appeared be heading in the direction. Alas, that was not the case. McMahon’s strikeout rate since the start of June is still down to 27%, but it’s come at the expense of power:
Since the start of June, McMahon has just a 4.5% barrel rate and .143 ISO. This isn’t the trajectory we’re looking for. You don’t want to fall for recency bias, but there’s some legitimate reason for this being the case. The 26-year-old has become more passive throughout the year, leading the a more defensive approach; we also know that contact at the expense of power is a negative. Hopefully, McMahon rights the ship, but his overall numbers might not represent the hitter we’re going to see moving forward.
The same applies to Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but in the opposite fashion. Through May, the 27-year-old boasted a 76 wRC+ and .133 ISO. Since then? A 130 wRC+, .215 ISO, and 10% barrel. You know I love graphs, so here’s one for you:
When it doesn’t get in the way of power production, this truly is a thing of beauty! Moving forward, I expect Gurriel Jr. to be a key contributor for batting average and power, and he still comes with first base/outfield eligibility in Fantrax leagues. In the offseason, this is a player you’re going to want to buy low on while the stench of his slow start to 2021 is still there.
Mid-Tier Hitters Who Deserve More Credit
When you look at Ty France or Jeimer Candelario on Baseball Savant, you’re not going to be blown away. That’s fine; these two players have skills that are going to lead them to consistent offensive success. They may not experience the peaks that others do, but they’ll be as reliable as it get moving forward.
Traded from the Padres to the Mariners last season, France has emerged as a major part of a rising Mariners team. With a 127 wRC+, he’s been their best offensive producer, and has filled in at first base, second base, and third base. Now, you might not be blown away by the power (.158 ISO) and worried about his average on balls in play (.328 BABIP), but don’t be. France’s career 28.5% flare/burner in his first 898 plate appearances are both well above-average, guiding the batting average success. That appears to be a legitimate skill, and should lead to high BABIPs in the future; ZiPs projects a .321 BABIP for the rest of the year. That makes him a major asset in the batting average department, while he provides enough power, should continue to be an everyday player who has opportunities to score and drive in runs, and also has a high floor with his batting average with just a 16.8% strikeout rate. I’ll gladly bet on his contact abilities, multi-position eligibility, and well-rounded skillset moving forward.
Jeimer Candelario, meanwhile, is a more well-regarded name as a former top prospects traded from the Cubs in 2017. However, with an 84 wRC+ over the first two seasons of his career, it didn’t seem likely he’d be an everyday contributor forward. Naturally, he’s posted a 125 wRC+ and .361 on-base percentage since this point. You might be worried about the .348 BABIP, which will go down slightly over time, but also look at his trajectory of contact:
7.9% barrel, 7.4% solid, 29.6% flare/burner, 24.4% under, 31.2% topped, 2.7% weak
In other words, Candelario hits the ball at optimal trajectories more than the average hitter and avoids worse trajectories more often. This carried over from 2020, where he’s halved the amount of pop-ups he’s hitting. Meanwhile, he’s increased his zone-swing rate to 67.5%, is making more contact (23.7%) than ever, and has strong plate discipline numbers (10.4% BB, 21.7% K). In my eyes, this is a breakout, which will take projections a second to catch up to. While that’s still in effect, make sure to have him on your dynasty team! He’s a well-rounded offensive contributor, is an everyday player and is only 27-years-old; the Tigers have to be thrilled about his overall progress.
Random Relievers Of The Week
The Rangers are a rebuilding team, and traded away their top reliever in Ian Kennedy at the trade deadline. That means ample amount of opportunities for young relievers to prove their worth at the MLB level, which is exactly what has happened.
Right now, Texas’ top high-leverage reliever appears to be Joe Barlow. In 19.1 innings at the MLB level, the 25-year-old has posted a 27.3% strikeout rate, and has clearly earned the trust of manager Chris Woodward, as he should. Since the start of 2019, Barlow posted a lethal 37.5% strikeout rate at the upper levels of the minors, and has a clear power arsenal. His fastball generates an absurd 3.1 inches more vertical movement than the average fastball in the range of his velocity and extension, allowing him to induce plenty of pop-ups (34.8% under). It’s a pitch he’s comfortable leaning on 48.5% of the time, but when he needs a whiff. That’s where his slider comes into play. Although it doesn’t profile as elite, it’s a sharper offering he’s done an excellent job locating exclusively down and away to righties. This is a clear power pitcher, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he competes for saves in Texas next year.
At this point, Barlow is a more known commodity, so let’s dive even deeper into the Texas bullpen. How about Nick Synder, who has just 3.2 innings under his belt at the MLB level. When you’re sitting at 99 MPH with your fastball, you’ll have my attention, especially when it’s an elite vertical pitch (3.1 inches more vertical movement than average). In 33 innings pitched in the upper levels of the minors, the 25-year-old posted a 38.2% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate, which are absolutely ridiculous numbers. In deeper leagues that hold a lot of relievers, he’s definitley worth monitoring. I truly believe there might be something here.
Other Notes
It’s been a disappointing season for Zach Plesac, who owns a 4.75 FIP in 119.1 innings pitched this year with just a 17% strikeout rate. However, there might be some reason for optimism. His slider, which was his amazing whiff (42.7%) pitch in 2020, was too horizontal to start the year, but he’s gone back to his normal vertical slider from last year. Hopefully, more strikeouts are soon to come.
I’ve mentioned Ian Happ as a buy-low hitter before, and he has a 138 wRC+ since the start of August with a 12.2% barrel. The line drive rate (30.7% LD) regression has come for him, which has resulted in an overall BABIP improvement. He’ll be an intriguing buy-low option in the offseason.
Is Frank Schwindel the real deal? The Cubs’ first baseman currently has a 173 wRC+, and could be Chicago’s starting first baseman next year. In Triple-A this season, the 29-year-old posted a .279 ISO, and has been a strong minor-league performer. The combination of low strikeouts and power bodes well for his future outlook, though he’s also already 29 and may not walk enough to have an everyday role. Nevertheless, keep a close eye on him moving forward.
After flourishing earlier in the season and sitting at 96 MPH, Carlos Rodon was down to 93 MPH in his last start. I’m starting to get less optimistic about his ability to handle a full season’s workload moving forward, making him a sell-high candidate this offseason.