Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a Red Sox slugger coming into his own, 2019 breakouts getting back to peak form, and fastball issues surrounding two hard-throwing young righties, there is a lot to get to this week: Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Bobby Dalbec’s Mid-Season Transformations
Coming into this season, the Red Sox were hoping Bobby Dalbec could cement himself as a future building block at first base. Yet, that experiment appeared to have ended by the All-Star game. In the first half, the 26-year-old posted a 73 wRC+, .259 on-base percentage, and a 37.2% strikeout rate. This likely encouraged Boston to make a trade for Kyle Schwarber ahead of the trade deadline; Dalbec simply wasn’t cutting it for a team in the midst of a playoff push.
With Schwarber still on the injured list, Dalbec still had a small window of opportunity to prove his worth, and he’s done exactly that. Since the start of August, he has a 189 wRC+, .393 on-base percentage, and has seen his plate discipline stats (9.8% BB, 27.7% K). What caused the sudden change? Normally, you’d saw it’s just a hot streak, but there’s more to it than that.
Dalbec’s swinging strike rate (17.7%) remains extremely poor, and doesn’t match up with the lower strikeout rate. Clearly, when he gets to two strikes, he’s a liability when it comes to striking out. What’s the best way to combat this? Simply avoiding two-strike counts;
I will note this comes with a decrease in chase rate, which is remarkably encouraging. Dalbec is taking less called strikes, which makes sense - a passive approach isn’t recommended for three-true-outcomes sluggers. This also leads to more fastballs, which improves his chances of avoiding a two-strike count. With the amount of power he possesses, he should be ready to be the aggressor, and it seems as though he has adjusted to the MLB level both from not chasing pitches and swinging at pitches in the zone.
With this improvement, Dalbec’s dynasty outlook is much more interesting. It’s likely that Boston lets him be their starting first baseman next year, and the decrease in strikeouts no longer makes him a liability in terms of batting average. His power, that’s tremendous; in points leagues, the combination of more walks and less strikeouts is incredibly significant. As the Red Sox make their playoff push this season, expect “Bobby Barrels” to be a key part of it.
Welcome Back, 2019 Versions of Josh Bell and Jorge Soler
Both Josh Bell and Jorge Soler were tremendous offensive contributors in 2019, but after poor 2020 60-game seasons, their stock definitely took a dip. Adding onto this, both struggled at the beginning of the 2021, causing many to simply just write them off; it’s not as though they had. attack record of success prior to 2019. Well, I hope you didn’t do that. Both players are flourishing right now, making the 2019 versions of these players the true representation of them moving forward.
Bell was the starting first baseman for the National League in the 2019 All Star Game, and finished 2019 with a 135 wRC+, .292 ISO, and a .379 wOBA. However, he struggled towards the end of the season, and that carried over to 2020 with a 77 wRC+. All of a sudden, his stock had dissipated; he was the 22nd drafted first baseman in Fantrax leagues this offseason. Plus, if you made the decision to draft him, you probably cut him after he posted a 75 wRC+ through May. Since then, though, his numbers are tremendous:
.272/.357/.522, 132 wRC+, .250 ISO, 11.8% BB, 12.9% K, 9.4% barrel
Remember, this is a three+ month stretch! When analyzing Bell last season, there was one key change: an increase in strikeouts. Earlier on, this issue percolated. However, take a look at his progression there throughout the season:
Moving forward, Bell should be seen as someone who will post a .270 batting average with notable power. Does that sound like someone who should still not be universally rostered in leagues, regardless of format? Not to me. You should gladly buy-low on Bell this offseason while his first two months cloud his overall numbers, and need to target him in redraft leagues.
Jorge Soler’s ascent is more well-known, yet it’s unclear if he’ll be a player bought into with regards to his value. Through July, Soler was sitting with a 64 wRC+, leading many fantasy baseball managers to cut bait with him. Since then? Well:
.259/.347/.542, 135 wRC+, .283 ISO, 11.9% BB, 19.3% K, .375 wOBA, 13.2% barrel
You know where I am going with this:
As I noted here, Soler was always a clear candidate to improve in the second half of the season. His home run/fly ball rate was a career-low, he was due for BABIP regression, and his strikeout rate was due to improve with a career-low swinging strike rate and career-high contact rate. The breakout has now taken place.
In addition to still being a fantastic hitter, Soler is also freed from Kaufmann Stadium, meaning that more of his barrels should be converted into home runs moving forward. His 98 wRC+ may currently suggest he’s a below-average hitter, yet that couldn’t be further from the case. Buy the 29-year-old’s super power and new contact skills moving forward.
Young Pitchers With Fastball Problems: Luis Patiño and Edward Cabrera
Before I start, let me get this out of the way. I am not saying that Luis Patiño and Edward Cabrera are “screwed” moving forward. Rather, the current versions of themselves aren’t where they need to be, and more optimization is needed. These are two young pitchers with elite pedigree, and with a few tweaks, they’ll get much closer to meeting those high expectations.
Patiño is a frequent guest on these notes, and when your arsenal is as lively as he is, that makes sense. The Rays’ young righty has been effective enough with a 23% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate, and 4.62 ERA, but not quite to the level we hope he’s capable of. Remember, this is a pitcher with a high-90s fastball with absurd movement (2.1 inches more than average), which has been the basis behind the intrigue about him. Unfortunately, he may be falling for it too much:
That’s seven straight games where Patino has thrown his fastball over 62% of the time. Yet, why is this the case? The 21-year-old’s slider has been his best whiff (34.2%) pitch this year, while his changeup is his best pitch to get ground balls and improve his major platoon splits. Getting closer to a 50/50 split between fastball and non-fastball could be critical for him striking more batters out, in addition to not being as prone to getting hard with his shaky command. There’s a ceiling to chase here, and I’m hoping that can happen in Tampa Bay.
Edward Cabrera, meanwhile, has the much more direct path to success. The Marlins are no strangers to developing young pitchers, hoping to pair Cabrera with Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Sixto Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and other dynamic young pitchers to lead them back to contention.
With strong strikeout numbers in the minors, it might surprise you that Cabrera currently sports a 12.7% strikeout rate and a 14.1% walk rate. Both his fastball (.462 wOBA) and changeup (.588 wOBA) have been hit extremely hard, and it’s clear he’ll need to adjust to the MLB level. Really, it appears that this could all stem from a fastball problem.
See, despite throwing in the upper 90s, Cabrera’s fastball lacks great vertical movement, and is more of a horizontal offering. Right now, he’s scared to elevate it, and if that’s the case, why not mix in a sinker to get more ground balls? Thus, the fastball can be elevated up in the zone more, while the power sinker does damage for ground balls. According to private data available to Prospects Live, Cabrera was throwing a fairly elite sinker in the minors. We’re not sure why it hasn’t made an appearance. Meanwhile, featuring his sharp slider and changeup as needed could give him the type of dynamic four-pitch mix that Sandy Alcantara has used to become an ace this season.
So, what’s the takeaway here? When analyzing these pitchers heading into next year, keep a close eye on their pitch usage. If Cabrera continues to have no threat of elevating hitters’ eye levels, then I have concerns about him, while the same can be said if Patino continues to be so fastball-heavy. Both of these pitchers are extraordinary talented. Now, we just have to see what comes of that.
Random Relievers Of The Week
Some relievers throw hard, but these relievers throw even harder than that! Both of these NL West fire-ballers have very intriguing arsenals that, when it is all said and done, can hopefully turn into them pitching high-leverage innings and being a contributor in fantasy leagues!
Due to them being down two starting pitchers, the Giants have relied on their bullpen to cover multiple games a week. With that in mind, Camilo Doval has played an important role for them. With a 29.7% strikeout rate and 3.55 SIERA in 14.1 innings he’s pitched, it’s no wonder why they feel comfortable having him pitch in critical spots as is. When your fastball sits at 98.3 MPH, you’d expect that to be the driver behind their success. However, the 24-year-old only throws it 40.9% of the time. Rather, it’s his slider, which yields a 38.2% whiff this far, that has been his go-to pitch:
I could see Doval pushing to close games for the Giants by next year, even in their current situation. His two-pitch arsenal, which also works against lefties, is quite powerful, and he has a strong history of inducing ground balls. That’s quite the tantalizing profile. Stash him now!
Throwing heat is no challenge for Julian Ferandez of the Rockies, who sits at 98.6 MPH with his fastball and has topped 100 MPH on multiple occasions. I mean, just look at this:
When you can do that, you have my attention. Meanwhile, rather than a slider, his complementary pitch is a sharp changeup; he’ll do just fine against lefties. He’s a complete work in progress whose command tends to hinder his ability to strike batters out and have overall success, but few pitchers have the arsenal that he has. Sadly, he’s with the Rockies, who seem to be focusing in him keeping his fastball down in the zone and have been not great when it comes to developing young pitchers. That’s a roadblock I don’t know if he can overcome, but let’s hope he is able to!
Other Notes:
Don’t look at full-season stats for Yandy Diaz and Miguel Sano. Diaz continues to hit more fly balls and hit for more power, while Sano’s strikeout rate keeps going down. These are very legitimate approach changes that you should take advantage of before others do. Sano hit a home run yesterday continuing his second half of terror.
Both Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are starting to hit for the power they were expected to for the Rockies this year. As the pending free agent, Story is the one worth spotlighting here. It appears he tried a bit too hard to focus on the quantity of his contact, but he’s now surrounding some whiffs for more power, the optimal approach. I’m still worried about his outlook with a new team, yet this is encouraging.
Deep sleeper alert? Cardinals infielder Edmundo Sosa. He ranks in the 98th percentile in sprint speed and 94th percentile in max exit velocity, establishing a clear power+speed combination. Now, he hits too many ground balls for that to come to fruition, but he’s someone who’ll hit for a solid average while stealing bases, and has started to earn more playing time in St.Louis. Keep a close eye on him.