Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between an under-the-radar impact dynasty contributor, what to make of two completely different rookie seasons, and an edition of sell high/buy low, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Jorge Polanco Is a Top-100 Dynasty Asset
What if I told you there was a 28-year-old with a .275 batting average, .242 isolated power (ISO), and 10 steals with middle-infield flexibility? Would that peak your interest. In the midst of a fantastic season, Jorge Polanco hasn’t gotten the recognition he deserved. He’s made some clear changes to be the best version of himself, and it’s time for him to be seen as a consensus top-100 dynasty asset.
The 60-game season didn’t go as planned for Polanco, who posted an 80 wRC+ after two straight seasons as an above-average hitter. However, if the outlier season was the shorter season, wouldn’t that be the one to dismiss? Simply put, Polanco is a different player, and the power breakout he is experiencing this year is legitimate.
As I broke down on Fantrax previously, when it comes to maximizing your power, even over your expected power numbers, there are two variables to look at for: how much the hitter is pulling the ball and hitting the ball in the air. Polanco has always been someone who has done the latter. His career 31.6 under% is well above the MLB average (24.4%), while his 35.6% ground ball rate is well below the league-average 45.1% rate. However, it’s the former that he’s finally done at a high level this year. Take a gander at Polanco’s pull rate, starting in 2019:
2019: 34.7%
2020%: 35.6%
2021: 52.2%
Pulled flyballs, as I broken down in the power article, have a greater likelihood to be a home run; simple park factors would tell you this, as the shortest areas of the field are right down the line. 28 of Polanco’s 31 home runs have been pulled, which ranks 4th, in addition to 36 of his 46 barrels (2nd).
Speaking of which, Polanco’s 10.3% barrel rate is the highest of his career, which aligns with a career-high 33% fly ball rate and embracing more swing-and-miss (19.4% whiff) than ever before. In addition, he’s being more aggressive in terms of swinging at pitches in the zone (70%), even if his chase rate has increased as well. Taking far fewer called strikes (15.1%) has done wonders when it comes to him a) avoiding a massive strikeout rate and b) being ready to ambush mistakes, which is exactly what he’s doing.
If you take out a torrid first month of the season (which you can’t do), Polanco has a 141 wRC+ and .271 ISO. Taking out certain months to fit a narrative is a poor idea, but since Polanco’s swinging strike rate (6%) was so low in this month, my hypothesis is that he made an in-season change to hit for more power; he was swinging far less and perhaps too much contact. Now that he’s become comfortable with this new approach, he’s profiling as an all-around contributor moving forward with middle-infield eligibility. At 28 years old, he’s currently in the midst of his peak, and could be a clear difference maker for any contending dynasty team. Despite his production, it seems he hasn’t garnered the respect he deserves. Acquire him before it’s too late. This is a top-100 dynasty asset, and today is the day that he starts getting the credit he deserves.
The 2018 Draft Class Revisted: Jarred Kelenic and Casey Mize
The 2018 draft was billed as a special one, and it still can be. However, it hasn’t been without its roadblocks. Joey Bart and Alec Bohm are stuck in Triple-A, Ryan Weathers has struggled mightily, Nick Madrigal and Travis Swaggerty have missed most of this year due to injury, Carter Stewart is playing in Japan, and Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. That’s quite a top ten, to say the least; outside of Jonathan India, the results have been underwhelming. That is, unless Jarred Kelenic and Casey Mize have something to say about that. These two rookies have had much different years, but moving forward, there’s one player to clearly have faith in, as well as one player to fade moving forward.
The player to buy into? That would be Kelenic, Prospects Live’s #1 dynasty prospect this past offseason. Yes, a 71 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR through his first 325 plate appearances is not how he would have wanted to start his MLB career. Yet, it doesn’t preclude him from having a successful career moving forward. Since he was promoted back up to the MLB, he’s been roughly a league-average hitter, while showing a lot of power in the process (.201 ISO). That power is backed up by a 9.9% barrel in that span, in addition to elite minor-league numbers.
The question is: will the batting average improve enough? To that end, I’m optimistic. Kelenic’s 18.3% line-drive rate is extremely low, and should regress positively in future seasons. This should help his batted-ball luck, but what it ultimately comes down to is striking out less. Even since being re-promoted, it’s too high at 28.6%, and is the main driver between his lack of success right now. Yet, I think there is a lot to still be encouraged here. His 82.7% in-zone contact rate is above the league average, while his swing decision metrics (29.1% chase, 66.9% zone swing) are both adequate, and much improved from his early stint in the MLB. The issue has been a 49.2% chase contact rate, well below the league average of 58.2%; breaking balls (38.7%) and offspeed (44.2% whiff) pitches have been an issue for him. Yet, he’s only 22, and this is something he can easily adjust to. I’d be more concerned if he just couldn’t handle velocity, but he’s producing (.344 wOBA, 15.8% whiff) just fine again fastballs this season, nor does he struggle at all with pitches at the top of the zone.
Long story short, Kelenic has already demonstrated the ability to hit for power, projects much better in terms of batting average/on-base percentage, and also will steal bases. He might not have been the immediate superstar that he was expected to be, but that’s more of an indictment of us placing such lofty expectations of young players than anything else.
Casey Mize, in a sense, has had a fine rookie year. The 24-year-old has compiled a 3.64 ERA in 143.1 innings pitched, and should only improve on that ERA moving forward, right? Not exactly. Mize’s ERA comes with a 4.51 FIP and a subpar 19% strikeout rate; keep in mind this factors in him working in shorter stints, too. The saving grace for him has been a lucky .251 BABIP and 80.5% left-on-base rate, which aren’t likely to stick moving forward. A low 19.2% line-drive has guided the low BABIP, but as a ground-ball pitcher, I don’t expect that trend to continue.
This means that he’ll have to make a tweak to reach his ultimate potential as the #1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The problem? He doesn’t have a clear “top pitch”. None of his pitches have a whiff rate of 30% or higher, while all have been hit hard with an 8.2% barrel rate allowed or higher. Neither his fastball (15.7% barrel allowed) nor sinker (13.1% whiff, .401 wOBA) are cutting it, and his signature splitter has mainly been useful for getting ground balls, as opposed to missing bats. Perhaps we should have paid to his minor-league numbers, which included just an average 24.7% strikeout rate. There hasn’t been a case since college that he’s been an effective strikeout pitcher, and without the elite batted-ball allowed profile, you’re mainly relying on his low walk rate to boost his stock moving forward. If that’s the case, it would make sense to sell high on the 3.64 ERA and top prospect pedigree this offseason. If you can flip Mize for teammate Tarik Skubal, that’s an easy decision to make, while there are other players valued similarly to him that come with a higher potential pay-off and less risk.
Buy-Low/Sell High: Anthony Santander, Patrick Wisdom
Anthony Santander, with just a 95 wRC+, may stand out as someone you need to be targeting in dynasty leagues. However, I will gladly take his production over Patrick Wisdom’s 118 wRC+. Let me explain why.
Santander’s overall offensive numbers don’t look overly impressive, but if you look at how he’s performed since coming back from his first notable ankle injury (May 21s), he’s been an above-league average (104 wRC+) hitter. However, even then, he was consistently in and out of the lineup dealing with an ankle injury, and then missed two weeks on the COVID-19 injured list. Thus, the first time he appears to have been fully healthy is the time since he’s come off the COVID-19 injured list. Well, if that’s the case:
.268/.310/.512, .244 ISO, 9.6% barrel, 120 wRC+
Even overall, Santander’s propensity to hit the ball in the air (33.7% GB) is going to allow his power to play up, even beyond his barrel rate. The overall trajectory of contact (8.5% barrel, 6.8% solid, 30.3% flare/burner, 30.3% under) is very intriguing when it comes to hitting for both average and power. THE BAT X projects a .245 batting average and .227 ISO from him moving forward, and there’s even a chance he beats that.
In need of power, Santander is someone to target, as opposed to Cubs corner infielder Patrick Wisdom. With a .293 ISO, he’s been an excellent contributor for win-now teams. That is, assuming you’ve rostered him since the beginning. Since the start of July, Wisdom’s wRC+ is down to 98, and while his power numbers (.249 ISO, 13.3% barrel) have still been strong, it won’t make up for his .215 batting average in that span, which he probably (.306 BABIP) was lucky to have. With a 54.2% pull rate, I think Wisdom will continue to hit for as much power as he can. The BABIP, though, is likely to take a deep dive, which isn’t ideal for a hitter with a 40.8% strikeout rate. With how many other productive corner infielders there are, why take the risk in a player who’ll be such a massive liability in every category under than power? Santander can offer a lot of power as well, but is a much better all-around player. If these two players are being valued in remotely similar fashion, make the swap immediately.
Random Relievers Of The Week
With the season coming to a close, the time is now to identify as many under-the-radar relievers as possible. These two hard-throwing young righties can hopefully match their strong minor-league production into a successful MLB career.
Nick Mears has slightly underwhelmed with a 19.3% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate in 19.2 innings in his career, yet there is a lot to be intrigued about. The 24-year-old posted a 30.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A this season, and had been a well-regarded prospect prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. With a 95.4 MPH fastball with above-average vertical movement (+2.5 inches) and a vertical curveball that mirrors perfectly with it, he has a two-pitch mix that should miss a lot of bats at the MLB level. The vertical movement here is picture perfect:
With a 31.6% strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Oliver Ortega definitely earned his promotion to the MLB level for the Angels. While the results haven’t been there in a small sample, the arsenal is interesting. His 96.6 MPH fastball features slightly above-average vertical movement, and he was able to combine strikeouts with ground balls induced in the minors. Hopefully, he can help be a solution for the Angels’ bullpen woes moving forward.
Other Notes
Can we please talk about how productive of a hitter Alejandro Kirk is projecting to be. After positing elite numbers at the minor-league level, the 23-year-old has posted a 12.2% barrel with just an 11.7% strikeout rate in his first 172 plate appearances. Remember, he’s a catcher. Even if there are concerns about his defense, his bat is good enough to keep him in the lineup as a designated hitter. He’s going to be yet another potent offensive piece for the Blue Jays.
Another player with strong minor-league numbers? That would be Marlins first baseman Lewin Diaz. Over the first 119 plate appearances, he has an 11% barrel rate, and high high pull rate (41.5%) + under% (30.5%) combination will allow him to maximize his power production. The plate discipline is concerning, so I wouldn’t anticipate him hitting for average or on-base percentage. That being said, it appears he can be a useful source of power moving forward.
Another Marlin that is worth talking about is right-handed pitcher Elieser Hernandez. The 26-year-old has performed well with a 22% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in his first 216 MLB innings, but I’d be careful to extrapolate that over a larger workload. The combination of the lack of durability and limited ground balls (34.5%) would make me a bit skeptical, and while he might be able to do just fine over a larger workload, there’s not enough “dominance” here for me to not be content selling high to a manager who believes in him as a traditional starting pitcher.
Since the start of July, Jonathan Schoop has a .106 ISO and 4% barrel. This is quite the slump for someone who is supposed to provide a lot of power, and with most of his production concentrated in one month (June), I’m hoping this isn’t a sign of things to come.