Welcome back for the fifth edition of Live Looks from yours truly. It’s getting harder to find new folks to introduce in this series, but over the course of the last four weeks, there have been nine new names to highlight. We have some power pitching from Wake Forest, a couple of high-contact college bats with varying degrees of game power, and the first high school prospect covered outside of the state of Georgia. Enjoy!
RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest
Dates Seen: 3/30
Performance: 7 IP, 2 R, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Rhett Lowder got the ball in the series opener vs. the Clemson Tigers and put together yet another quality start for the Demon Deacons. He sat 92-94 with the fastball, with good late armside run that got bad swings from Tiger hitters all evening. He blended in two variations of his slider--a low-80s version with tighter sweeping shape and a mid-80s cutter variation with average depth. Versus left-handed hitters, the Demon Deacons’ ace showed a mid-80s changeup with plus depth and good armside run--a pitch that truly has plus potential at the highest level. Command wise, Lowder made a few mistakes with hanging sliders and leaving his fastball over the middle but otherwise pounded the zone with good strikes and controlled at-bats with his secondaries as the game went on. While not the largest guy, Lowder does possess the requisite size and physicality to handle the rigors of starting pitching, with the plus athleticism to excel at it. He operates with easy effort and has whippy arm speed out of a low 3Q slot, moving down the mound really well to get on hitters early. All in all, Wake Forest’s Friday night starter has the stuff, athleticism, mechanics, and command to project as a future middle-of-the-rotation starter, and shouldn’t be expected to last past pick 20 in this year’s draft.
LHP Sean Sullivan, Wake Forest
Dates Seen: 3/31
Performance: 5 IP, 3 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 HBP, 5 K
Following Lowder’s effort on Thursday was Sean Sullivan, a transfer from Northwestern. The Deacs’ lefty operates with easy effort out of a low 3Q slot. His fastball sits 87-91, touching 92 MPH. However, despite light velocity, this four-seamer eats in the middle to top of the zone because of Sullivan’s unique ability to generate well above average carry relative to his low arm slot. The pitch’s vertical approach angle is amongst the flattest in D-1 baseball, and as such elicited whiffs from Clemson hitters throughout his five innings of work. Mixed off the fastball was a very sweepy slider at 75-78 and good running changeup at 78-80--deployed to left and right-handed hitters respectively with general success when located. Command for Sullivan was a tale of two halves. Through 3, Sullivan lived off his fastball and located consistently in the upper part of the zone. In the 4th, command of the fastball eroded and Clemson hitters sat on his secondaries. Sullivan’s lateral-heavy arsenal also led to some hit by pitches, though he didn’t cede a walk. All in all, it was a relatively bad outing for a pitcher that would be considered good by most of his cohorts. Sullivan will need to add velocity in pro ball and could use a more vertical pitch to complement his current arsenal. However, with room to grow on his 6-4, 210 lb. frame, Wake Forest’s #2 starter has the type of fastball that projects to a future first-division role in either the rotation or the bullpen. Expect him to not last past Day 1.
RHP Seth Keener, Wake Forest
Dates Seen: 3/31
Performance: 3 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K
Wake Forest’s bullpen is replete with high-level stuff, but unlike some of his cohorts, Seth Keener was in complete command of his arsenal in a scoreless three-inning stint. Serving as the set-up man to closer Camden Minacci, Keener sat 93-95 with strong carrying life up in the zone, complimented by an 82-87 MPH slider with plus vertical break and a firm changeup at 85-88 with good running life. The slider, in particular, was nasty and served as the primary putaway pitch that elicited plenty of whiffs for the Demon Deacons’ righty. Keener’s athleticism and above-average feel for three pitches will give him a chance to start at the next level, but as more of a control over command guy with some noticeable effort on a smaller frame, it might be wise to continue his development as a late inning reliever. Expect him to be selected no later than round five.
RHP Max Carlson, North Carolina
Dates Seen: 4/6
Performance: 7 IP, 1 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K
On another Thursday night opener, Max Carlson took the mound for North Carolina against Georgia Tech and put together one of his best starts of the year. Listed at 6-1, 210 lbs., the Tar Heel righty has added muscle to help maintain his fastball velocity throughout games. It sits 89-93 with good carrying life, getting whiffs up the zone vs. a swing-happy Georgia Tech lineup. His main secondary is a 78-82 changeup, which has above-average depth and flashes plus fall off the table action. Carlson trusts it vs. RHH more than his 78-81 MPH slider, which is fringy at best pitch that flashes average vertical depth. While Carlson is mechanically sound and a good athlete, his violence and effortful delivery (in conjunction with a lack of a third pitch) have him trending towards a relief role in pro ball. He projects as a late Day 2 pick, though one that could receive a higher than usual bonus due to his prep pedigree and flashes of mid-90s velocity in years past.
RF Mac Horvath, North Carolina
Dates Seen: 4/6, 4/7
Performance: 2-8, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 SB
Mac Horvath impacted the game in a variety of ways during the Tar Heels’ series against Georgia Tech, showcasing premium arm strength and barrel speed. The Minnesota native doesn’t use a backswing at the plate, instead relying on his twitch and core strength to get the barrel through the zone. Horvath caught the barrel on varying levels of fastballs and secondaries and will swing early in the count if he sees something he can drive. Defensively, Horvath has a plus arm in right field and showed it off on an assist at 3B. His foot speed is average to above average but has the range to handle (a Vance Honeycutt occupied) center field. Horvath is expected to be taken somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round, with his power and defensive aptitude positively outweighing age and swing decision negatives.
C Fernando Gonzalez, Georgia
Dates Seen: 4/20
Performance: 1-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Fernando Gonzalez had one of his better offensive showings of the season vs. the Razorbacks, cranking a no doubt home run to left field to provide late game insurance for Georgia in their 6-5 win. The Panamanian native has a short stroke at the plate, playing into his natural contact ability and trying to spray the ball across the yard. As a result, he doesn’t possess a lot of in-game power, with his exit velocities being in the bottom quartile of D-1 players. Defensively, Gonzalez has been an asset at catcher for the Bulldogs, with an ability to control the run game and smooth blocking and receiving behind the plate. He profiles as a future backup at the next level with second-division starter upside and should be selected near the end of Day 2 as a capable defender at a premium position.
CF Drew Burress, Houston County (GA)
Dates Seen: 4/22
Performance: 4-7, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
For Round 1 of the GHSA 6A playoffs, Houston County swept their doubleheader against Brunswick to move on, with their star center fielder Drew Burress hitting at least one home run in each game. Burress has a very rhythm-oriented swing, utilizing a bat wrap to help keep his hands back while letting his front shoulder and hip travel deep. The end result is a very impactful swing that produces loud pull-side contact when he is seeing the ball well--like he did on Saturday afternoon. In the field, Burress has a plus arm and covers plenty of ground in center, where he will be a fixture for the foreseeable future. Whether that future will be in affiliated ball, or at Russ Chandler Stadium, will be determined by whether or not teams can meet his price point. As it stands, Burress grades out as a third round bat--a small outfielder with some swing-and-miss issues but also some of the loudest physical tools in the draft class.
RHP Olin Johnson, McCallie School (TN)
Dates Seen: 4/25
Performance: 6.1 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 11 K
Pop-ups have been few and far between this year in Georgia, but there might be one right across the state line in Chattanooga. 6-6 RHP Olin Johnson has seen an uptick in stuff during his senior season at McCallie and put together a dominant outing against their crosstown rivals Baylor. Facing off against multiple Power 5 commits, Johnson went six plus innings allowing zero runs and racking up double-digit strikeouts. The North Carolina commit sits 88-92 with above-average carry life that flashes plus, and goes to a 70-75 MPH curveball that flashes above-average depth with great feel for shape--a plus for any future breaking ball development. Rounding out the arsenal was an 82 MPH changeup with flashes of above-average late depth and showed feel for rolling it off the fingers. Johnson’s arm is loose and quick, and works well with his lower half, though extra strength will be needed to reduce violence and improve his balance. Command will be a hit or miss at this stage for a 17-year-old still learning to pitch with such long limbs, but the combination of stuff, aptitude, and projection has Johnson trending as a fourth to fifth round option in the upcoming draft.
2B Kristian Campbell, Georgia Tech
Dates Seen: 4/30
Performance: 1-3, 1 2B, 2 HBP
The ACC leader in on-base percentage, Kristian Campbell showed his plate discipline and contact bonafides by reaching three times in five plate appearances on Sunday afternoon in a win vs. Gardner-Webb. Standing 6-3, 210 lbs., you wouldn’t peg Campbell as a slash-and-dash type based on his body type. But the Yellow Jackets’ leadoff hitter has strong bat control and fires his hands at anything in the strike zone, looking to burn patches of grass in shallow right field with an opposite-field approach. Campbell will be an interesting conversation in draft rooms come July--he’s got some of the best contact and chase numbers in D-1 baseball and flashes average raw power on mistake breaking balls. However, Campbell would need a swing overhaul to get to any of that power in pro ball and doesn’t project to offer defensive value at 2B due to below-average foot speed and arm strength. Those types can and have been hidden at 2B if they can hit, so it will be imperative that Campbell’s future team have a plan in place to help him adapt and/or change his game against advanced pitching. As it is, Tech’s on-base maven projects as a model friendly fourth to fifth round pick.