Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | DET | LHP | 4 | 55 |
Grades Update: Nov 2020
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Ctr/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 60 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 50/45 |
Nov 2020 Report
Evaluator: James Chipman
Age: 24 yr
Height: 6-3
Weight: 215 lbs
Hits/Throws: L/L
Acquired: 2018 Draft - Round 9
RuleV: On 40-man
Physical Description: Athletic, sturdy workhorse frame with a strong, thick lower half. Broad shoulders, long limbs and a high waist with average upper body and core strength. Turns 24 years old in November - there's minimal physical projection remaining. Skubal is a mature student of the game with an impressive work ethic. His injury history includes Tommy John surgery performed back in 2016.
Delivery & Mechanics: A former standout basketball player, Skubal's actions are balanced, fluid and athletic. Fires the ball from a high 3/4 slot with a moderate to high effort delivery. High leg kick and late exposure yield solid deception. Despite having some funky crossbody arm action, Skubal utilizes his height and high slot to work downhill generating nice downward plane. His arm speed and long levers increase perceived velocity, but the arm action saps away most of those gains.
Fastball: Skubal's heater grades plus, sitting 92-96 mph scraping as high as 98 mph, with nice downhill plane. He adds and subtracts velocity exceptionally well. The lower velocity band yields a heavy two-seam sinker that he predominately pounds low in the zone. Skubal frequently lives in the upper half of the zone with his four-seamer. The power fastball has arm-side life, and some riding life when he climbs the ladder out of the zone. Early in '19 he'd frequently lose velocity around the 50-60 pitch mark; around midseason he started showing the ability to hold velocity deeper into his outings. Overall a plus offering, Skubal leans heavily on his fastball creating some predictable sequencing and adding some reliever risk. Grade: 60
Curveball: Change of pace, fringy offering that sits 79-82 mph with big 1/7 shape. The inconsistent breaker has depth, but lacks consistent tight rotation and late break; often rolling in as a loopy cement mixer. It plays up a bit against same-sided batters where he flashed the ability to utilize it as a spike pitch chaser or away on the outer third. Right-handers appear to see it well, and his hangers yield loud, well barreled contact. The offering sits below-average and flashes average on occasion when he's locked in. Grade: 45
Slider: Sharp two-plane breaker has solid depth, occasional tilt and nasty darting action at its best. He's comfortable utilizing the offering to both sides of the plate and he routinely pounds it inside as a back-foot chaser to right-handed batters. On occasion he manipulates the movement to a firmer, more traditional cutter with short horizontal break.The offering misses bats, has put-away promise and legit above-average potential moving forward. Grade: 55
Changeup: A respectable third pitch, Skubal's change-up sits around 83-86 mph. The offering predominately plays below-average, but flashes solid-average. Its main deficiencies being lack of consistent feel and conviction. He maintains arm slot and tunnel, but he slows his arm-speed on occasion telegraphing the pitch, guiding it to the plate. As a result, command is also a bit of a bear. Over my live looks, the majority of those that were hung yielded well barreled knocks. The offering's movement varies, as the upper band of velocity yields a pedestrian firm tumbler. At its best, Skubal's change features desired velocity, steep tumbling action and solid fade, giving me reason to believe that it can develop into an average offering. Grade: 50
Control and Command: Skubal is a control-over-command pitcher, meaning he pounds the zone with average to above-average stuff, but relies more on the stuff than its precise location to draw weak contact or whiffs. He has pitchability, as the southpaw changes speeds and moves the ball around the zone well to keep the opposition off balance and guessing. Skubal commands his fastball arm side a touch better than glove side. He has some feel for locating his slider but the feel for the curve and changeup is still touch and go. Overall Skubal projects average control with fringe-average command. Control: 50 | Command: 45
Overall: Detroit's breakout prospect in 2019 was without question Tarik Skubal. In a matter of months he went from a high risk, potential low-leverage reliever, to a consensus top 100 MLB prospect with mid-rotation upside. Whatever role he eventually carves out for Detroit, he's looking like a steal considering the fact he was signed for $350k in the 9th round of the '18 Draft. The effort in his delivery and fastball heavy sequencing add additional reliever risk. Finding consistency with the slider, improved sequencing and a step forward from the change-up or curveball are paramount for his ceiling to be reached. The repertoire is solid and deep enough in its current state to also potentially yield a solid back of the rotation stalwart. Worst case scenario, upper-90s heat from the left side, with an above-average slider would likely yield an impact high-leverage reliever - a solid and respectable floor.
OFP: 55
Role: 60 - Mid-Rotation SP or Above-Average High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Moderate
