It’s the most wonderful time of year, with the prospects jingle belling, and everyone telling you, it’s the Bowman Draft time of the year. What presents will Bowman Claus leave under your tree this year?
There’s a little bit of everything that could end up in your Bowmas boxes this year - a high floor top overall pick, a huge college power bat that is a legitimate 50 home run threat, another in a long line of Angels first round picks that will end up on their big league squad before any other player in their draft class, a couple of college flamethrowers, big talent prep bats and arms, and a huge, wild card that we all HOPE has a 1st Bowman logo.
Merry Bowmas to all and to all a good night!
We classify each prospect in three ways - a Tier ranking, a Risk grade, and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Risk and Ceiling Grades
We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player.
Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Ryan Waldschmidt, 22, OF
In Waldschmidt, the Diamondbacks took a guy I really like with their compensatory pick this year, 31st overall. In terms of college bats who were already somewhat well-regarded, not many increased their profile more than Waldschmidt in 2024. Long known for both his ability to make contact and have a disciplined approach at the plate, it’s the increase in his power profile that caused the rise. He stands in the box with a deep athletic crouch and doesn’t use a leg kick. It’s an approach geared toward using his hands to get to the ball as fast as he can, but he also engages his lower half well like a mature hitter should, and that lets him get to legit pull side power. He doesn’t always hunt for that power, but he’s excellent at identifying pitches and what to do with them. In his brief debut at Low-A (where it’s pretty clear his assignment was just to acclimate – his Swing% was extremely low), he was excellent at both not swinging outside the zone and making contact in the zone. I 100% expect part of that to be sticky. Thinking optimistically, the potential plus hit tool will let that power play near to or even greater than its raw ceiling. While his speed doesn’t completely translate to his defense, it’s also very much a positive asset on the basepaths. I think a median outcome of a high-OBP 20 HR / 30 SB tablesetter is in the offing here. Think of him as having an Evan Carter projection (granted – they’re the same age). He’s more of a floor play than a ceiling play – but both are well above average. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier 3
JD Dix, 19, SS
When one talks about the top Wisconsin preps (lol) for the 2024 Draft, Dix’s name has been at the top for many years. (Few really pay attention to Wisconsin, but as a resident, I do). He has across-the-board average or better projected skills, and intriguingly, there’s a bit of a question of if the ceiling of everything is higher than we think. See, Dix had a labral tear in his shoulder repaired in late 2023 – while he returned to play in time for his senior year, 100% recovery from that injury doesn’t happen for roughly a year. So it’s fair to say it definitely affected his performance in Spring, and the Diamondbacks were the ones to take the gamble with the 35th overall pick. He looks the part of an athletic HS kid with enough present strength for pro ball, but the (second) question is what ticks up and what ticks down as he matures. The highest 15% of outcomes is an All-Star SS (or 2B) of some ilk, but there’s a broad gray area where some of the tools aren’t loud enough for what we like in the hobby. To most, based on what we’ve actually seen, he doesn’t project as having any plus tools and may end up as a utility-type – overall a bit similar to fellow Wisconsinite Gavin Lux. But Lux had some highs that were quite high in the hobby. If Dix shows that his trajectory was significantly affected by his injury that’s now behind him though, watch out – this could very well be a guy with 5-tools. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tytus Cissell, 18, SS
Since the beginning of 2024 Cissell’s status has risen considerably as he started playing in more showcase games and scouts started buying into his raw athleticism and projectability. He’s a switch-hitting plus runner who should be a quality defender wherever he ends up, be it CF or middle infield. A switch-hitter, the rest of his game is all projection. He has a strong foundation at the plate and a sweet stroke, especially as a lefty, but hasn’t gotten to too much power. That’s absolutely fine for now, as he has a lot of room to grow into his body. As a 4th Rounder, I don’t think the expectation should be great performance out of the gate. But as long as he’s not truly struggling, keep your eye on him. He has the starter kit of a player who could end up as at least an above average major leaguer. He just has to go out and prove that in the next few years. I would be a buyer on the raw tools, with the understanding that he’s not likely to pop past Low-A in the next 12-18 months. He’s squarely in the dart throw category of Tier None with big variance – he has upward potential to Tier Two if he starts showing power. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
Connor Foley, 21, P
A draft-eligible Sophomore who was lured away from returning to Indiana for an overslot $1 MM in the 5th Round, Foley has a great fastball. It has excellent late life and can be into the upper 90’s but as a starter it doesn’t maintain velocity at present. He has a nice change up in the low-80’s as well as a downward moving slider in the high-80’s. Both will be important to his development, but they need more separation of movement between each other. Right now if a hitter sits offspeed, he can get by if either pitch comes their way. With his current arsenal, he’s really not ready for even High-A. He also has those durability concerns as I mentioned with his fastball velocity dipping, as well as a few little injury issues. His mechanics look clean though, and it’s fair to think he just needs time to build up. His command is also a work in progress, but let’s see how he addresses all those other challenges first. If it doesn’t quite come together he could be a weapon out of the bullpen – one that’s really only a few upticks from a triple digit heater. Any way you slice it he will not be a quick riser with risk in many forms abound. He’s not a great hobby name at this juncture. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Both
Daniel Eagen, 22, P
A surprisingly strong Junior season at Presbyterian College after poor and injury plagued seasons leading into 2024 shot Eagen up into consideration in the top 10 rounds, leading to the Diamondbacks grabbing him in round 6 of the draft. Eagen dominated the competition in the Big South Conference, registering 121 strikeouts (38% K rate) in just over 77 innings. The fastball was the story, as it jumped in velocity into the mid-90’s, which setup both his curveball and his slider to generate a bunch of whiffs. The slider and curveball both had more vertical movement than horizontal movement, at least visually. Occasionally I’d see some 1-7 or even 2-8 type of break, but a lot of it was straight 12-6. Eagen also reportedly throws a change-up, but I didn’t come across it in any of the sparse video out there. Arizona should give Eagen a shot at starting and finding a back-end rotation spot until he proves he can’t do it. The curve-ball and the slider are both potentially viable MLB pitches, so the real question becomes the fastball and health, two things we’ve only seen positive signs of for one season. Smaller school competition domination doesn’t help give us a clear view on his potential home being the bullpen or the rotation. Like most pitchers from the 2024 MLB Draft, he didn’t get in any pro reps post-draft, so we really don’t have much to go on. Until we see how he handles pro hitters, Eagen is easy to drop into the Tier None bucket with the other back-end starters and relievers. We just don’t have enough to hang our hat on to push him higher for the moment - tough competition, prospect pedigree, track record, and a collectable team are all lacking at the moment. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Both
Ivan Luciano, 18, C
Taken in the second round and the first player from Puerto Rico taken in the 2024 MLB Draft, Luciano is just now turning 18 (November 24th) as this product is releasing. The reports call out a plus arm behind the plate, giving him a good chance to stick at the position. Not much else shows up on the positive side of the equation - he’s on the smaller side with not much power, he’s got some work to do behind the plate, he’s not going to steal many bases, and his hit tool has varying opinions out there, but most fall in the average to above average range. The Diamondbacks reportedly like his approach and contact skills in reports post-draft. However, listening to team execs talking glowingly about their draft picks does have to be viewed with a bit of skepticism until we see it ourselves, and there is very little video of Luciano available to dig into. As I alluded to above, one of the youngest players in the draft probably helped Luciano show well in the data models that teams will employ in their evaluations. The fact that Luciano signed for over $300K under slot is worth considering when you see he was taken in the second round and think his talent was deserving of that high of a pick. In fact, Luciano did not make our Top 300 draft prospects, and I doubt he’ll come anywhere close to our Diamondbacks Top 20 when it releases later this off-season. Prep catchers are one of the riskiest profiles in the MLB Draft, probably right after prep pitchers. Unless you have a compelling reason to spend money on a prep catcher, it’s best to avoid them, and that’s what I’d recommend doing here. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3 Both
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Cam Caminiti, 18, P
The Braves 1st Rounder and one of the youngest players in the draft this year, Caminiti has a great ceiling for both the hobby and real life. His 6’2” frame has loads of physical development remaining yet. The lefty’s stuff is more projection than the other top prep arms, but he does already have a sinking fastball with lots of armside run that he works in the mid-90’s with (top 98), and everyone says there’s a few more ticks coming. It’s easily a pitch that could end up as a plus-plus offering. He also has a slider and a curve with good movement that offer different looks and a change that he hardly uses. The Braves will tinker with these pitches as they are wont to do, so I won’t quibble with exactly what they look like now – but the important thing is that he has a good feel for everything. Atlanta is a great landing spot. Caminiti was going to have a lengthy development process anyway, so what better a place that has repeatedly shown they’re able to maximize a pitcher’s potential in one way or another? There’s zero reason to think of him moving to the bullpen, but his stuff is already a killer to fellow lefties, so that will always be a back-pocket option and it gives him a floor. He’s sure to be a hobby favorite for the sizable Braves fanbase, and it should only grow as he develops. He’s near the top of this tier. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9 Both
Carter Holton, 22, P
I dunno about this one for the hobby. Don’t get me wrong – Holton, taken in the 2nd round and having been a starter for three years at Vandy – has a ton of pedigree. His fastball is into the mid-90’s. His slider, curve, and change are pretty advanced for his age as well, and his deception coming from the left side is excellent. He gets K’s by the boatload. His command can even be categorized as “good enough”. All this combined could cause a quick rise through the minors. But to me there’s two things against him. First, at 5’11” he’s not very projectable and it started to show as college hitters learned how to hit him a bit in his Junior year. Second is his delivery. It’s clearly worked as he put together three healthy seasons with a starter’s workload, but there’s an immense amount of power he puts into his lower body. It appears to be a high effort delivery, but it’s really just all in his legs (hence the deception thing) that spin him off the mound in an unorthodox fashion. It really looks like a reliever’s delivery, and that's my fear with him. Hobby-wise I think it’s fair to trust the Braves to develop their high draft capital pitchers, but Holton comes with much more hobby risk than real-life risk. His ceiling is a high-K mid-rotation piece, but the very realistic floor of his being a reliever has me tucking him into the back end of Tier 3. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both
Nick Montgomery, 19, C/1B
A 5th rounder of the Braves out of the Southern California prep ranks, Montgomery is a bit of an older prep that just turned 19 in November. He’s a power bat with a bit longer swing given his 6’4” frame, although the reports are that his hit tool is at the least average or potentially better. According to the Draft team, he walked more than he struck out in his final prep season, which is almost never a bad thing when it comes to power hitters. His physical size may be a hard sell at the catcher position long term, with first base or a corner outfield spot a strong likelihood. He did not get any pro reps in post-draft, so we’re just left with prep and showcase video. It’s hard to deny that it looks good, but that’s sort of what you get with those videos. I don’t think the catcher penalty applies here, as I’d expect Montgomery to push out from behind the dish. So we’re looking at a corner power bat that we don’t have a ton of solid video on and not a ton of draft pedigree. If Montgomery is cheap enough, I’d be very interested in purchasing a few of his lottery tickets. He’s on that borderline of Tier None and Tier 3 for me. With a strong Atlanta collector base and the power potential, I think there could be some potential value here, so I’ll sneak him into Tier 3. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Herick Hernandez, 21, P
Hernandez was the Braves 5th round pick after being a JUCO bandit and then getting one season in at the University of Miami which, outside of racking up the strikeouts, did not go well. Despite the poor numbers, the arsenal is promising. It’s a low-90’s fastball that at its best has good ride to make up for the lack of velocity. He throws a slider, curveball, and changeup to round out the arsenal. He had two outings after the draft, one in Single-A and one in High-A. He was dominant in the Single-A start, getting seven strikeouts in three and two thirds with no hits, walks, or runs given up. In his second start at High-A, the Rangers farm hands were able to touch him up to start off the game, but he calmed down and ended up with five strikeouts through three innings. He was most successful with a vertical approach, when he was putting the fastball up in, and sometimes above, the zone while throwing the off-speed and breakers all at the bottom of the zone and in the dirt. When he left anything in the zone, the stuff was rarely good enough to get swing and miss from the better hitters in the lineup. There were some command and control issues in that High-A start, which were questions coming out of college. The floor here is a low leverage lefty reliever with the ceiling being some form of a mid to back-end starter with strikeout upside. With the Atlanta pitching development pipeline, I have learned to not be shocked by them taking raw clay and turning them into above average to very good MLB pitchers. Hernandez wasn’t someone that I was particularly interested in when I checked out his college numbers before watching the video and thought he’d be an easy Tier None rank, but I can see why the Braves were interested, and that has me considering a Tier 3 rank. Ultimately he’s a pitcher without much pedigree and I’m still not sure how effective his stuff and approach will be against advanced hitting, so I’m going to recommend the cautious route for Hobby purposes and rank him in Tier None. He’s definitely one I’d keep my eye on in 2025. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both
Ethan Bagwell, 18, P
A prep righty out of the Illinois prep ranks, Atlanta grabbed Bagwell in the 6th round and gave him a touch more than $500K over slot. It gives me pause in the evaluation that the Braves would commit to Bagwell like that, because, absent that, I don’t see much to get excited about. Sure, he was able to pump it up to 98 mph at one point early in his Senior year, but he was mostly sitting low 90’s with his fastball. The slider is his main secondary with a 10-4 breaking axis and mid-80’s change-up rounds out the arsenal. He’s a big boy at 6’4” and 230 pounds, leading to the question of how his body will mature. Is there more in the tank, and more strength to come, or is he already at his physical peak and there’s a risk of bad weight to come. It’s so hard to tell both physicality and arsenal effectiveness from all of the recent video looks essentially being from behind the catcher with his one pro outing in September not being broadcast. There’s a benefit of the doubt element, along with a decently strong commitment from the Braves, that makes a Tier 3 ranking entirely understandable. On the other hand, there’s nothing that stood out in his prep evaluation, he’s not got much prospect or draft pedigree, he wasn’t ranked in our Top 300 draft prospects pre-draft, and he didn’t make the 2025 Team Top 20 list on our site for what is at best a middling Braves system. While very much the classic mystery box at this point, I’m out for now since right-handed prep arms are one of the riskiest prospect profiles possible, but this is worth a revisit this time next year. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5 Base
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Griff O’Ferrall, 21, SS
He doesn’t have much power, but O’Ferrall boasts a solid 4-tool profile that gives him a high floor. The O’s PPI pick, 32nd overall, was a three-year starter at Virginia and a consistent performer both there and in wood bat summer leagues. There’s not much doubt who we’re getting here. He stands in with his hands on the higher side and his swing is a little long, but he’s excellent with his timing and feel for the barrel so ripping hits all across the field with his flat swing plane is no problem at all. He has the type of mature look up there that should move through the minors quickly, and he showed that by reaching High-A in his debut. He’s a good base stealer with above-average speed, totaling 50 SB in his three Collegiate seasons. Whether he ends up at 2B or SS depends on the team need, but he’s shown an ability to handle either position well. Hobby-wise, with tools to get him to the majors seemingly in place, the question is how dynamic can he be? I think the answer is, unfortunately, not very. He might throw a high OBP with maturity, but I think he’s a 10 HR / 20 SB type who’s really more valuable for the team than the hobby. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 5 Both
Ethan Anderson, 21, 1B/C
Anderson was the O’s 2nd Rounder, taken 61st overall. It’s probably worth it for the Orioles to take a look at Anderson as a catcher for his first full year of pro development since he only started there for one year at Virginia – it’s fair to say he’s raw defensively. But it’s the bat that’s the most interesting thing with Anderson. He’s a switch-hitting complete hitter up there. He very, very rarely misses in the zone, and has pretty good discipline to boot. It’s a swing that’s geared for contact, but he’s so good with his hands and finding the barrel that there should be a modicum of power with maturity. We don’t know if he’ll be a catcher long term, but I’ll just make a note that the rigors of catching appear to have cost him quite a bit of power in 2024. If he doesn't stick at catcher, Anderson does have quite a bit of experience as a 1B, and he could also be tried as a corner OF. With his profile, I’d like it better if he was a corner OF because he definitely doesn’t have the raw power of the 1B prototype. Hobby-wise Anderson isn’t all that exciting since he’ll be doing the catcher-experiment thing so he doesn’t figure to move quickly, and he lacks the projection to 20+ HR pop we like. He has enough ceiling to get to Tier 3, but for now he’s at the top of Tier None. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Base-Only
Chase Allsup, 21, P
Though he started for the first time at Auburn this year, he got hit pretty hard and it’s absolutely a strong possibility Allsup is a relief arm long-term. Taken as a 4th Round pick there’s not a need to give him a long leash as a starter either, because he’s close to ready-made as a reliever. All he needs to do is command his fastball better. The shape of that pitch is pretty good, but when he doesn’t locate that pitch well and it ends up down in the zone, it tends to get hammered. But it’s still an offering that’s up to 100 in short spurts (92-24 as a starter), so it’s potential is squarely above average. His mid-80’s slider is a sharp vertical breaker, and he also has a curve that moves in the same way at lower velocity and a change as well. None of it is commanded well, but as a reliever – it’s probably good enough. It’s of critical importance that he develop proper usage of his fastball, and there is the small chance that it ticks up two notches and he becomes a closer – that’s the best case scenario if we’re talking real life. Or if it doesn’t develop I could see him stalling out at AA. For the hobby his ceiling is a high-K% backend starter, with a 50% outcome of his MLB relief piece. Not super interesting hobby-wise. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3 Base-Only
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Braden Montgomery, 21, OF
The Red Sox development org, especially on the hitter side, has suddenly become one of the most talked about success stories with Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel all regularly found in the top 50 if not top 25, with Roman Anthony regularly in that top overall prospect in baseball conversation. Depending on your opinion on Montgomery, he may crack some Top 50 lists this off-season. Prior to breaking his ankle during the college baseball playoffs, he was regularly in the top 5 draft pick overall conversation. He ended up falling to the Red Sox at 12th overall in the first round. While I know Red Sox fans were hoping to load up on arms in a system mostly bereft of them, and had Trey Yesavage sitting there, Montgomery may have been too good for them to pass up. The profile is of a prototype right fielder with an elite arm, plus power, and average hit and run tools. There really isn’t much to quibble with outside of some swing and miss with off-speed and breakers. As a power over hit offensive player, he isn’t overly aggressive like you might assume, and he will put up his fair share of walks. As a switch hitter, there are some minor concerns around his right-handed swing and approach being the lesser of the two sides with just average contact rates. I don’t think it will be a big deal if he decides to get lefty-only, but that tends to take some adjustment time if it happens. If there wasn’t the uncertainty around the ankle injury and recovery, I would have had Montgomery in consideration for a Tier 1 rank. He’s easily a top 10 player in this product, and I’d hope his prices are low enough that I could get a piece. The floor is so high with his defensive value, the hit tool won't hinder his plus power, and he’s on a highly collectable team with a newfound prospect hitter dev magic. There’s just no major concerns outside of the end of season ankle injury, and the ceiling is significant. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Payton Tolle, 22, P
Tolle was drafted 50th overall in the 2nd Round and signed for a slightly overslot $2 MM. Coming from the left side Tolle at 6`6” 250 lbs and possessing a mid-90’s heater with unique movement traits, he should have every chance to start. The TCU product gets both great extension and great deception in his delivery, so paired with that fastball it doesn’t matter so much that his secondaries (slider, change) are mediocre at present. His command also leaves something to be desired, but it hasn’t hurt him yet as he posted a 37 K% and gave up a sub-.200 BA in his final year at college. A former two way player, it’s fair to think that optimistically his stuff and control could tick up with more experience too – but that also means it’ll be a bit of a longer runway and likely an age-24 debut. He’s interesting for the hobby, but we also have to consider the downside, which is ending up as a 1-pitch reliever. As such, it’s pretty clear he doesn’t belong higher than the top of Tier None for now. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both
Zach Ehrhard, 21, OF
Ehrhard is a speedy small-ish framed OF who does exactly what you think he does – get on base. The Red Sox 4th Rounder’s hit tool plays well because he has a discerning eye at the plate and never tries to do too much with what he’s given. He’s willing to go to all fields in any count. His feel for the barrel is pretty good, but he loses so much thump selling out for contact that even his well struck balls sometimes don’t go for hits. He did a better job of picking spots to take riskier swings and generate a little bit of loft in his Junior year at Oklahoma State, but that’s just to say he showed he has a glimmer of power potential – perhaps a 10-12 HR ceiling as a pro. While he has really good speed and ability to steal at will, he hasn’t yet chosen to use that skill often – watch for an increase in that aspect of his game that would add a small dimension of hobby interest. He’s clearly not a very desirable hobby name and lacks the projection to be more than a second division regular, unless I’m wrong about his emerging power. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Base-Only
Brandon Neely, 21, P
The Red Sox third round selection, Neely signed for a slightly underslot $700k. He’s not purely a reliever and will be given a shot to start, but I think the bullpen is quite likely where he ends up, as that’s where a majority of his past at Florida success lies. Almost every time he went longer in outings he started to get hit harder as innings wore on. His stuff simply plays better in short spurts. That’s not to say he has plus stuff – he doesn’t have any pitches with that projection – and in fact because of that he doesn’t carry a floor if surefire MLB reliever. His fastball is probably his best pitch (mid-90’s in shorter outings) but he does have the full starter’s toolkit of offerings. If he makes it as a rotation piece, it’ll likely be as a back-end SP or swingman – again though, there’s no track record saying that he should have success in that role. He does have enough deception in his delivery to miss bats, so that’s one tick in his favor hobby wise. The other is the card market he’s been drafted into. Altogether though, Neely is not a name that should draw much hobby interest and he carries more risk than most pitchers coming from a big collegiate program. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3 Both
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Cam Smith, 21, 3B
Will the Giants regret taking James Tibbs one pick before Cam Smith in the 2024 MLB Draft? At the moment, that answer is a resounding “yes”. We’ll see how it plays out in the long term, but as a Giants fan, I’m filled with rage (not really, but still, I’m mildly perturbed). While Christian Moore got a ton of the early post-draft, strong performance publicity, especially because he was almost immediately pushed to Double-A after his debut, Cam Smith’s debut was arguably just as good. The hit tool was the major question mark coming into the college season, and Smith significantly improved in that regard. He then carried that over to his pro debut with strong numbers including a 77% contact rate and 84% in zone contact rate. A concern to be aware of though is that Smith can end up putting the ball on the ground too much. That didn’t happen in his first stop at Single-A, but it jumped way up to 50% ground balls at his second stop in High-A. The power wasn’t in question, as that has plus potential, and he smashed 7 home runs in just 32 pro games post-draft. Smith looks like a tooled-up, physical specimen at 6’3” and 225 pounds, and while that translates to the just mentioned power, Smith isn’t interested in stealing bases. He does have a gun at third base, even if his overall defense at the position is more average-ish. This is one of those really tough to rank, borderline Tier decisions. Being on a really collectible team, absolutely crushing a small sample size post-draft, first round draft pedigree, and having Hobby friendly power are all check marks on the positive side. The lack of stolen bases is a slight knock in the negative column, but if Smith anchors a lineup as a 3 or 4 hitter in a lineup, it won’t matter much. Another slight concern is that the glove and movement at third base look a bit stiff at times. For me, it really comes down to the hit tool. And while the contact rates were strong, the ground ball rates and his swing being more like a stiffer muscle-bound power-hitter rather than a flexible athlete also give me pause in the ranking evaluation. I did mention a comparison to Christian Moore off the top, but Smith only got 5 games in Double-A, while Moore did almost all of his work at that level, so I was being a bit disingenuous with that take. Ultimately I feel like there is enough that I saw to keep me from pushing Smith all the way to the top of the Tiers, even if that upside now looks a lot more possible than it did coming into the draft. I’ll rank him in Tier 2, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets priced like a Tier 1 player. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Cole Mathis, 21, 3B
Though he was drafted in the 2nd Round as a 3B because he has the arm to profile there, don’t expect that experiment to last too long. Mathis is almost certainly a 1B long-term, which leaves all the pressure on his bat. The highest pick in the history of College of Charleston, Mathis was new to hitting full-time in 2024 and it really showed in the bottom line – a .335/.472/.650 with more BB than K, all improvements on his previous year. It was also notable that in 2023 he finished second in the Cape Cod League with 11 HR – a great sign that his power should translate well. That power is not his best attribute either – he has plenty of pull side juice, but he’s really a complete hitter. He has a very short, asynchronous swing that lets him make tons of contact, but he also makes up for it with a great ability to use his hands and lower body – it’s an altogether mature approach that will let him do a lot of things in the future. I’m less afraid of the lesser competition he faced at Charleston because of his success on the Cape, but I am afraid of how it’ll end up if his power doesn’t fully show through. It’ll slip down to the best case of a Tre’ Morgan profile if so. But with all that said, Mathis is a very interesting name for the hobby that should hit the ground running in High-A next year. Watch the power numbers especially – if they look good, an All-Star 1B-type is definitely in the realm of possibility. The limited defensive profile ticks up his risk a bit. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
Ty Southisene, 19, SS
Southisene is sort of the yin to Ronny Cruz’s yang energy. While Cruz is the sort of dynamic lotto tick the hobby would love (were he in this product) , Southisene, the overslot ($1 MM) 4th rounder is really small for a SS at 5’9” but he’s smooth out there and figures to be a positive defender at any of the three IF spots. That’s most of the appeal here, that his glove will carry him through the minors. His bat shouldn’t be a major factor in holding him back though. He has a calm demeanor at the plate and an approach well beyond his years. When he hunts for power it’s in safe counts, and if not he has an excellent knack for the barrel without sacrificing too much bat speed. I would expect him to start next year at Low-A, where we’ll see if he has enough current physicality for full season ball. Now, while Southisene is on the safer side for a prep prospect and I’d make the wager that he makes it to the majors in time, I don’t know where any of the tools we care most about for the hobby are. He figures to be a sum-of-the-parts type. He’ll steal a few bases and hit perhaps 10-15 HR with maturity, but even if that happend his hit tool needs to to be plus or better to make him a hobby name of true significance – it’s just not likely. He doesn’t need that type of ceiling to make it to the majors, and I won’t project it. Cubs fans should like him. But as far as a high ceiling, collectors should look elsewhere. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Both
Ariel Armas, C, 22
Of the University of San Diego draft-eligible players. Jakob Christian is certainly much flashier from a hobby perspective, but Armas may make it farther through the minors. I won’t beat around the bush in saying it’s purely because he has a really good understanding of how to handle a pitching staff and his defensive physical skills may be good enough to perhaps one day make it as a backup catcher. He doesn’t have much sting at all with the bat, and what little he has he sacrifices to make contact in unfavorable counts. There’s a lot of ground balls and weak contact here, but he does take his share of walks as well. As a positive he was immediately deployed to High-A in his debut, so the Cubs did evaluate his maturity as able to handle an age-appropriate level straight away. A catcher through-and-through, be’s not a major threat on the bases. The Cubs took him in the 5th Round with the hope that his defensive attributes level up as he continues to work with more advanced pitching, but there’s not much of an offensive ceiling at all here. The likeliest of outcomes is that he ends up as a career minor leaguer, but one that’s valuable to the club. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2 Both
Chicago White Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Hagen Smith, 21, P
He’s not even the best left handed pitching prospect in his org - guess he’s Tier None! Kidding, of course. It’s not fair when the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball is in the same system, and that’s Noah Schultz, of course. As far as Smith goes, he was the best left-handed pitcher in the draft. There’s an argument to be made that as far as ceiling goes, Cam Caminiti and Kash Mayfield could surpass Smith at some point, but there’s a ton more unknowns with those two prep arms. Smith features a one two punch of a plus fastball and plus slider. The fastball lives in the mid-90’s and can touch 100 while the slider sits mid-80’s and generates a ton of whiffs. His third pitch is a lesser used change-up in the upper 80’s that has potential to round out his arsenal but he just doesn’t throw it much to really know if he can consistently command it. To be fair, when you're getting whiffs and strikeouts with your two primary pitches, it’s a hard formula to argue with. His three quarters delivery adds to the difficulty level for opposing batters. I really, really like what I see from Smith. But I also am very cognizant of the fact that it’s very difficult to be an ace with just two pitches, no matter how good they are. It’s just so hard to keep the best hitters off balance if you’re throwing just two pitches nine out of ten times, and you’re expected to face those hitters at least twice if not three times in a single outing. While Smith’s command is generally much improved in the last year, there is still some work to be done there as well. A lot of positives, but also a few yellow caution flags to be aware of with Smith. There is an SP2 ceiling here, with a mid-rotation starter as the median outcome, and a high leverage bullpen arm as the floor. That floor only happens if there are no further steps forward taken with his command and/or his tertiary pitches. There’s probably an argument to be made for an optimistic Tier 1 ranking given just how good that fastball and slider are, but I’m not yet there with Smith. I need to see him dominate at the higher levels of the minor leagues before I’m ready to push all my chips in on Smith. He has the strikeout potential, he has the deception, he has the advantage of coming with velocity from the left side. The ingredients are there for Hobby goodness. He’s a no doubt Tier 2 pitcher with Tier 1 upside. Depending on the price point, I wouldn’t mind getting some cheap pieces of Smith’s cards, assuming his base autos are in the $50 or less range at some point this off-season. Any more than that, and I’d rather not incur that much risk until I see a much larger sample against pro hitters in 2025. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Caleb Bonemer, 19, 3B
Though he played a lot of SS in HS, I think it’s fair to peg Bonemer immediately as a 3B – he certainly looks the part as a physically mature 6`1” teen. The Michigander was talked about as a Day 1 talent for years leading into 2024, but he slid back from that just a hair and was taken in the 2nd Round with the 43 overall pick. He’s become a little too aggressive and has hunted power a little too much in recent showcases – but in doing so he’s just playing to his strength. He has elite bat speed for his age and really knows how to launch it. It’s just that consistent quality of contact that has suffered. His swing is a bit stiff, like he’s swinging a 2x4 at the plate at times – it’s not a beautiful rhythmic thing to look at all. He just uses his exceptional all-around strength to hack away, and he’s shown an ability to do it to all fields. Though he probably ticks down to average or worse on the basepaths as he matures further, he should absolutely be able to stick as a 3B defensively. Nobody really knows exactly how his hit tool is going to play against professional talent, but he’s always had at least shown enough of one to have success on the highest level of competition for his age. The true answer to that question should tell us how much of that raw power shows in game – there’s a wide range of outcomes, but a 35 HR ceiling with an average that doesn’t hurt you is definitely in the realm. When you watch him next year, check his quality of contact. If he’s running a good BABIP with little power, that’s probably a result of coaching – just understand the power is coming and those positive batted ball results are a foundational piece to his development. He’s 100% an interesting name for the hobby because his strength lies in what the hobby loves. He might not be a quick mover though, and I’m not a huge fan of the swing. He’s at the very top of this tier. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Nick McLain, 21, OF
I’ll hand it to the White Sox here, McLain was a name on the rise as the Draft approached and they did well to nab him in the 3rd Round. The brother of Matt and Sean, Nick is a similar shorter in stature with a hit-centric profile. A switch hitter, the Arizona State standout lost most of his 2023 season due to a hamate fracture, and then lost the first half of 2024 to the same injury to his other hand. Even though power is slow to return after this injury, his season numbers look good, but it’s even better when you consider how he finished. From April 30 on (his last 14 games), he was 32/61 with 8 HR while striking out only 4 times in that span. Whew! What a way to put an exclamation point on a college career that was previously poised to end with an ellipsis! Still, his whole collegiate career was only 87 games – he has a ways to go to prove anything can maintain over the course of a season, much less stay healthy. McLain sets his timing with a big leg kick, but beyond that it’s a sweet stroke and he has no problem creating loft with an all-fields approach. He’s shown a good eye at the plate and rarely gets beat by any specific pitch type. His body has matured a bit in the last year and he’s slowed down a tick – that will limit his ability to be a threat on the bases, but he still has a shot to be a CF. It’s easy to to see upward mobility from his station as a 3rd Rounder, with a potential to hit for a high average with decent power – I see him becoming just a pesky hitter to get out that’ll frustrate pitchers. His ceiling is squarely an above-average big leaguer like his biggest brother was (in his only healthy season), but Nick likewise carries the risk of having to prove his health. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
San Antonacci, 21, 2B
He’s not a dynamic player by any means, but Antonacci certainly excels at getting on base and putting bat to ball. He played one year at Coastal Carolina after transferring from a JuCo and proved he was worthy of the Sox’ 5th Round pick, and even signed a little over slot! He takes a lot of pitches. If you think of him as a hitter ever wanting to do damage, you’d call him passive. But passivity is a feature, not a bug of his game, because he’s so confident that he can make meaningful contact with any pitch in the zone. To put a point on this, in his pro debut he posted a 6th% Z-Swing and a 96th% Z-Contact while working a 16.7 BB% and a .333 average in 102 PAs. He has as many hits as he did swings outside the zone. It was only Low-A, but one might say that he knows exactly what he’s doing up there. Even with the pop-up nature of his being a 1-year player at a major program, I think hit tool could be quite easily plus. It needs to be, because none of his other tools are really better than average. His next best trait is his aggression on the bases that should leave him with 10-15 steals, but it’s definitely only average speed. He does look like he has good strength in his body, but he doesn’t use it for power at the plate – it’s minimal by the design of the rest of his approach and his swing being highly just geared for contact. He also only has a fringy arm that should eventually land him at 2B. Hobby-wise, there’s clearly not a high ceiling, and what one might think of as a high floor is slightly clouded by it only being ~400 PAs against high-level competition thus far. But I think he’s a worthwhile floor play, and is a likely major leaguer of some ilk – perhaps one that contends for a batting title. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Both
Casey Saucke, 21, OF
The White Sox’ 4th Rounder, Saucke made a marked improvement at Virginia this year that earned him a slightly overslot $847k. A semblance of the bottom line numbers (.290/.333/.398) carried into his pro debut in High-A, but I have some concern under the hood. Saucke is an aggressive hitter who hits the ball quite hard – but the chase numbers ticked back significantly. It’s a smaller sample, but chasing 43% of the time is not going to get it done without plus game power. His raw power might be that, but his swing is not designed for over-the-fence pop. He comes to a deep crouch and leans over the plate with his hands set low. It’s a classic contact-hitter set-up, but at 6’3” he has enough leverage to have definite pull side power. More importantly, he uses his body well to generate bat speed from his quick stroke, and quality of contact is typically excellent. It needs to be with so much swing-and-miss in his game. If Saucke can learn to be a bit more disciplined within his aggression (not the easiest thing to do) there’s a top-of-the order asset here, but it’ll take some major adjustments. His arm is great and would play at 3B where he has experience, but the White Sox have only used him in the corner OF so far. He has good enough speed to perhaps be a fringy CF in time, but he’s not a major threat on the bases. The White Sox aren’t a great landing spot for this profile – the organization likely sees him as close to a ready-made asset, which would not maximize his potential. To me, he’s a bottom line comp to Wilfred Veras with less speed. Is that truly interesting for the hobby? Debatable, but I won’t be thinking about chasing him. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Both
Blake Larson, 18, P
Larson was taken 68th overall with a pick the White Sox acquired in the Gregory Santos trade. It’s nice upside pick for them. The 6’3” lefty was at IMG Academy in Florida for the 2023-24 academic year where he hoped to better harness his command. It wasn’t entirely successful, but he did flash his stuff against premium competition, which earned him a $1.4 MM bonus. Larson has a lot of physical projection remaining, and he’ll need much of it to stick as a starter because his low three quarters delivery has quite a bit of effort in it. There’s hope that more physicality helps with his command as well, because right now it’s not just below average, it’s below average for his age. His mix is quite intriguing though. He has a fastball that’s already sitting 93-94 (it should tick up) and has very nice sink and armside run. He pairs that with a sweeper that has great vertical movement and when located properly, gets lots of swing-and-miss. He also has a change that he doesn’t use much but also said to have promise. With this mix of pitches that could all be above average, I think the White Sox did well with the pick. But for the hobby, with as much work as he has to do across the board and as slow of a riser as he figures to be, Larson is not a strong name. The relief risk is there with his being a high effort delivery as well, but that’s a decision for years down the line. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6 Both
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Chase Burns, 21, P
It’s not really that surprising that Topps chose to include Burns in this product despite his being the #2 overall pick – a spot that is usually held back for the next year's Bowman release. Pitchers don’t do as well as hitters in the hobby, and Charlie Condon, who was taken a pick later, has a better hobby upside. It’s as simple as that. There’s no arguing that Hagen Smith and Burns are the top two pitchers in the draft class, and while their effectiveness was equal, Burns’ stuff is a little bit more turbocharged. Burns transferred to Wake Forest from Tennessee for his Junior year – a move that he made to get into the famed pitching lab so he could maximize his potential as he moved to a full-time starting role. There was no doubt that he had elite stuff at Tennessee, but he made changes to better utilize that stuff this year. He changed his arm slot so it’s slightly more over the top. That was to help one his biggest deficiencies – the flatness of his fastball. While it has hit 102 in the past and he routinely works in the high 90’s, when not located it got hit pretty hard. It still does – the shape has improved markedly, now featuring some cut and ride, but at its worst it can be picked apart. That’s truly not a damning statement – it’s a plus-plus pitch at its best, and the respect for that pitch is the reason the rest of his arsenal is so devastating. His slider is a ridiculous pitch, coming in at 88-91 with a boatload of vertical movement and some sweep – a true power offering. He even changes the shape of it depending on the hitter’s tendencies. The arm slot change afforded his low-80’s curve much more effectiveness, and it plays as at least an above-average future offering. His change is a high-80’s offering with a movement profile that compliments his slider at the same velocity. Throw all this together and you get a pitcher who got more swing-and-miss than any starting pitcher in college – it hovered at around 50%. After throwing a career high 100 innings, he also led all of NCAA Division 1 in strikeouts with 191 (by a whopping 30!). There is a book to be written on how to be effective against Burns, and it starts with how East Carolina beat him in the NCAA Tournament. It involves taking a lot of pitches, hoping his command is a little off, and making him throw you a fastball. For that reason he’s just shy of Tier 1 at this juncture, but to me he’s the top pitcher in the product and very, very clearly has ace upside. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tyson Lewis, 18, SS
Lewis was taken 51st overall but signed for $3 MM, which is back-of-of-the-first-round money. If Konner Griffin and Bryce Rainer slide to the middle-range of their expectations, Lewis, a Nebraska native, has a real shot at sliding in to be the best of the best prep SS in this class. Clearly he has a ways to go to prove that though. He has the speed component of his game locked down, especially on the basepaths where he’s an aggressive runner. It doesn’t translate perfectly to the field as a SS in terms of range and he’s altogether not a great fielder at this juncture, but he’ll be given the shot to stick at the position. His offensive profile is quite interesting. He has a really simple setup at the plate - small leg kick, keeps his hands low to be quick to the ball while engaging his lower half well. It’s a swing geared for line drives, but he’s strong enough to post above average exit velocities and put a fair amount of them over the fence to the pull side. He does tend to hunt for power a bit leading to some swing-and-miss, but that should be toned down as he learns to better use all fields. He’s pretty well built for an 18 YO already, but there’s quite a bit of projection remaining. He doesn’t have a classic “hit tool question”, but that’s the most questionable of his offensive assets. If his defense ticks up and his hit proves to be less questionable, he would really be that dynamic 5-tool player we love for the hobby. I don’t think he’ll be a quick riser coming from an atypical state like Nebraska, but there’s some really nice bones of a hobby-significant player here. I like him so much I’ll slip him into the back of Tier 2. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Mike Sirota, OF, 21
His Junior year at Northeastern may have been a disappointment performance-wise, but it wasn’t due to injury and Sirota still has the appearance of a dude at the plate. The aspirations of launching himself into 1st Round discussions never came to fruition, but the Reds stopped his slide in the 3rd Round. He’s slight of frame in his 6’3” but that’s by design – it lets his plus speed really play well in all aspects of the game, especially on the bases where he’s an aggressive threat. He’s a quality defender in CF and has a good enough arm that he should continue to play there as he moves through the minors. That speed and defense really give him a nice floor. But that’s not all. He stands in at the plate with his hands low in a deep crouch, ready to make a quick strike at the ball and take it to any field. I called his Junior year statistically disappointing, but he still put up a .473 OBP (in the CAA) – that’s a good indication of his patience and understanding of the strike zone. He also smashed 18 HR in his Sophomore season, and with this aggressive-looking swing and an ability to engage his lower half well it’s easy to see at least average power, especially to the pull side. You can see exactly why many saw him as an ascending talent heading into the NCAA season this year. But he had timing issues his whole year and mostly never found his rhythm, and it was most pronounced in his power output – his SLG dropped from .678 as a Soph to .513 this year. The hope is that this was an anomaly and the Reds are able to figure out a quick fix – he worked at the Complex exclusively after being drafted, so we’ll have to wait and see. The hobby as a whole may only see the 3rd Round pedigree and the mediocre Junior year, but don’t be fooled. He has the upside of a five-tool player, and in this draft class, he might be the sneakiest of all college players of that ilk. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7 Both
Luke Holman, 21, P
Holman was the Reds’ Competitive Balance selection, taken 71st overall. He’s riding the high of a fantastic Junior season at LSU where he struck out over 12 per 9 innings and ran a .172 BAA. He’s a lean 6’4” who can already get up to the mid-90’s with his fastball, and it’s fair to think there’s a few ticks coming with a bit more physical maturation. But his best pitch is his slider, which he has really good command of and gets a ton of whiffs. It’s easily a plus pitch. Paired with that fastball up in the zone, it’s a deadly combo who’s success should continue in the low minors. To succeed in the high minors as a starter, his change and/or curve need to develop further. I think the change has more promise because it pairs better movement-wise with his slider (whereas the curve is just slower). There’s definitely high-K upside here, and to truly be mid-rotation or better all he needs is development of that one pitch, and a year or two of maturation in the minors. It’s a pretty wide path to the majors, even if the median of outcomes is just a backend starter. I’m interested in him if the price is right, and with his being well outside the 1st Round, it should be. I’m sliding him into the back of Tier 3 just to separate him from other college arms, with the understanding that there’s a big overlap in the Venn diagram between Holman and the best of Tier None. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
None
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
Travis Bazzana, 22, 2B
The first overall pick in the draft has one of the safest floors in the draft, and with the other player competing for that label not making it into this product (JJ Wetherholt), it’s easy for the risk averse collectors to allocate hobby funds in this product towards Bazzana. Bazzana going first overall in the draft was an under slot deal over $1M in savings for Cleveland, but make no mistake, this was a very deserving pick at the top of the draft. And it was an historic selection as the first ever second baseman (as the primary position coming into the draft) and even better, the first ever Australian, selected with the top overall pick in the MLB Draft. He has above average to plus tools across the board with the exception of his arm, which is why you find him restricted to second base or potentially left field depending on the team depth chart. The biggest question he had coming into his Junior season at Oregon State was his ability to handle high heat, and do damage against high heat. He answered that question with authority, and even threw in at least one high heat home run in the minors post-draft that I watched. Speaking of post-draft, Bazzana was sent immediately to High-A, where he spent 27 games and produced mixed results. A lot of that was driven by his patience at the plate being taken advantage of by High-A pitchers. He was swinging just 38% of the time, which was in the 8th percentile for that level. That led to a 14% walk rate, but the strikeout rate was 25%. When he was swinging, he was making a lot of contact - 69th percentile in zone contact and a ridiculous 91st percentile outside of the zone (small sample alert). To further illustrate the point, his swinging strike rate was also in the 91st percentile, at just 8%, while his overall whiff rate was in the 85th percentile (very good). Bazzana stole 5 bases and hit 3 home runs while hitting .238 with an OPB of .369, good for a 126 wRC+ in those 27 High-A games. Once he really gets used to pro pitching, I think we’ll see Bazzana’s batting average be significantly higher than what we saw in those first 27 games. We’re looking at a future all-star that will hit .280+, flirt with a .400 OBP, and easily get to 20-20 with potential for much more. Top that off with the draft pedigree of being the first overall pick and Bazzana is a no-doubt Tier 1 prospect for the Hobby. I wouldn’t go all out, because Cleveland isn’t a highly collected team, and the power ceiling isn’t top of the scale. He’s not a Jac Caglianone type of player with 50 home run potential. If we wanted to make a bad comp, even though the profiles are different, there is every possibility that Bazzana ends up producing like Jose Altuve. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Braylon Doughty, 18, P
One of the biggest risers in all of the prep pitcher ranks over the past 14 months, Doughty was taken 36th overall and signed for slot money ($2.5 MM). He’s smaller in stature at 6’1” but he’s really powerful and athletic in his well built lower half and gets the most of his frame. His fastball has touched the high 90’s already and misses bats with some sinking armside movement – it’s at least an above average pitch in the making. His curve (or slider?) already looks like at least a plus pitch. He has the ability to alter its shape to add either more velocity or more depth (it’s anywhere from 80-86) while maintaining command. The spin rate on that thing is truly incredible, and going to the Guardians only increases the likelihood that he maximizes its effectiveness. He does have a fringy change-up as well and it’d be nice if it develops, but it’s completely possible Doughty makes it as a starter even if he scraps the pitch entirely. His command is good for his age but definitely has a ways to go. To me it doesn’t matter that he doesn’t have a ton of projection - the movement and velocity are already good enough. The card market in Cleveland is quite bad, so we’ll have to rely on him becoming a true top-line prospect to garner widespread interest. I’m 100% a believer that that can happen. He just needs some smaller refinements and perhaps a third (new?) pitch, and those organic improvements in command that should come with pro experience. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier None
Jacob Cozart, 21, C
Cozart is the sixth catcher of significance drafted from NC State in the last 15 years, and among those his 2nd Rd status / $2 MM bonus is topped only by Patrick Bailey. Cozart is probably the best defensive catcher in this college class, something we don’t care all that much about in the hobby, and makes him a better real-life prospect. We’d mostly prefer if the player moves off catcher altogether, but with Cozart, that’s not a viable path to the majors. He has good power, but it’s never going to play as an above average asset in the majors. He has extraordinary effort in his lefty swing, especially in his follow through. His deep crouched & stooped stance let him easily launch balls – getting it over the fence on occasion (~20 HR ceiling) isn’t really going to be an issue. The issue will likely be hitting the ball well with enough frequency. The effort in his swing affects his ability to make quality contact – and in his debut he didn’t make enough contact altogether with a K% well over 30. His path to the majors is widened significantly by his defense though. He projects as a plus defender with an average arm – alone, not enough to get him to majors as more than a backup. Obviously teams aren’t drafting players with a backup catcher ceiling in the 2nd Round though. The Guardians see his power as a real tool to help him get over the hump to that big-league regular stature. To me it’s going be a tough road to get there. I think he does end up a backup, and especially consider his poor card market, he’s an easy Tier None. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4 Both
Rafe Schlesinger, 21, P
Can the Guardians work their magic to convert a guy who’s WHIP was over 1.60 for two years running at Miami, and have him stick as a starter? That’s a huge question with Schlesinger. But if there’s one org to do it, it’s this one. The most prominent point of conversation when discussing Schlesinger is his lefty sidearm delivery. (OK, it’s technically the lowest of three-quarters, but he may as well be a sidewinder.) That makes him really deceptive, but it also hinders his ability to command pitches well from a location standpoint. Too many times did he get hit hard because something got left over the plate. His fastball is generally in the low 90’s and is especially tough on lefties and when he elevates the pitch. His sweepy slider is inconsistent and ends up a meatball if he gets too far under it, but it’s a great swing-and-miss offering if not. If the plan is to deploy him as a starter he’ll need to start from basically scratch on a change-up to keep righties honest, as he rarely throws it at present. The red flag here is the lack of success as a starter more than anything, but the system he was drafted into ameliorates that a bit. He certainly won’t be a quick riser and carries a lot of relief risk. He’s not a strong hobby name right now. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both
Aidan Major, 21, P
Major had surgery to repair his UCL this summer, so his in-game development will be on hold until 2026. Most of you will stop reading there considering he’s a base-only subject, which is fine. For two seasons he was an important piece of West Virginia’s bullpen, but was given a chance to start this year, in which he had some good games, but the sum total…well...let’s just say it’s safe to assume he’s ticketed back for a bullpen role when he’s healthy. The Guardians are a premium developmental organization for pitchers, and with Major starting with a fresh slate of objectives as he recovers, it’s a great landing spot. The 5’11” righty lacks ideal height but does have a fastball that’s been in the mid 90’s and a bulldog mentality on the mound. He also has three secondaries with distinct movement profiles that he essentially works with at the same velocity. That’ll certainly play in short spurts, and I’m a believer that the Guardians can get the most out of all those pitches. Still, he’s almost certainly just a relief arm, and not one with definite closer potential. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jared Thomas, 21, OF
A draft-eligible sophomore, Thomas was taken from the University of Texas in the 2nd Round, 42nd overall, where he signed slightly under slot, for $2 MM. His strength is the complete package of his hit tool, though there’s individual parts of it to pick apart. He knows the strike zone and doesn’t chase much at all. He’s very good at making good, quality contact by engaging his hands very well – his swing, in his upper body at least, is a thing of beauty. He does tend to not engage his lower half well sometimes but when one finds the barrel as much as he does it doesn’t matter. He’s an aggressive swinger in the zone and does hunt for power there, which leads to a bit of swing-and-miss. It’s a controlled approach within that, but it still leads to more K than you’d think from a player with his hit tool. His raw power, which he gets to most of because of that approach, is roughly average, and at 6’2” it’s a good enough frame to eventually get to 20 HR. Defensively, he played some CF at Texas but his future lies in the corners and at 1B. It could really be a mix of all of them - he should retain enough athleticism. I don’t think the Coors effect on Thomas’ power will be significant, but he does have a rock solid floor. As a player who’s young for the college class, if things go well he should easily debut by age 23. Hobby wise he’s fine, but there’s nothing truly exciting about his game – the definition of a Tier 3 guy. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6
Brody Brecht, 22, P
Nasty stuff. Absolutely filthy. Hitters batted just .163 off of Brecht in his Junior year at Iowa, and he struck out 37% of the batters he faced. So why did Brecht slip to 38th overall? Well, to put it kindly his command is not good, and there’s been no uptick in three years at Iowa. He walked 4 hitters or more in 5 of his 15 starts this year, topping out at 6 with a minimum of two. It’s fun to look at just how much in two worlds Brecht is, but it’s more productive to look at his path forward. The Rockies have been much better of late in their development of pitching (granted none has produced in the majors yet), so I’m actually encouraged by the landing spot from a developmental standpoint. Ignoring command, both Brecht’s fastball and slider are double-plus, top-of-the-class type pitches. His fastball is an explosive offering that has been over 100 MPH in the past and as he comes at you with some shortarm deception in his delivery, it’s tough to even pick up at all. He works his slider in the 89-91 range and it features some terrifying late downward movement. The rest of his arsenal is a giant TBD. If we’re talking about a relief pitcher, he won’t need anything else. That’s where most of the risk comes with Brecht. There’s no doubt that his two pitches should eventually get him to the majors, but he’s been so intriguing as a durable arm who’s thrown 75+ innings for two consecutive seasons that he’s highly likely to be tried as a starter for a few years. The Rockies will certainly be in no hurry to rush him to the majors. That adds more risk hobby-wise, because now we’re looking at an older debut season. The hobby is also justifiably slow to react to the Rockies being a viable system for any type of pitcher, so demand should be dampened. Brecht has very high variance, the tippy-top of which is the best pitcher in this entire draft class and the bottom of which is a further down-trend in command that leaves him completely unviable in the high minors as even a reliever. He’s a worthwhile dart throw for sure though. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Blake Wright, 22, 3B
Though he was a Senior sign and well underslot for being a 4th Round pick, a $250k bonus says there are some expectations for him in the minors at least. A three year starter at Clemson, Wright was a late bloomer, hitting more HR this year than his previous three combined (22). He showed an impressive feel for the barrel and hits with authority to all fields. Wright’s swing is a little stiff and that’ll affect the ceiling of his power, but that’s just a minor issue. He’s a very aggressive hitter but doesn’t chase much. In fact, in his 16 game debut at Low-A his O-Swing was in the 100th percentile (not a statistical error). Seems pretty interesting, right? Well, I’m afraid I need to beat down his hobby context now. He plays 3B, but he’ll never be a team’s strongest defender there so he’ll be moved around the infield and likely never have a full-time home. He’s a complete zero on the basepaths (though not a plodder). Finally, Wright will be 23 before the 2025 season starts and it likely ticketed for just High-A, where he’ll already be old for the level. Despite the Coors effect which Wright would ultimately benefit from, the Rockies are also a fairly poor hobby market. Wright’s a fun player who may very well prove that his breakout this year was no fluke. If that is the case, he’s a major league starter who’s value comes on the offensive side – perhaps a 25 HR ceiling? But with an age-25 debut likely coming with that, his hobby interest is a bit dampened. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Both
Cole Messina, 21, C
South Carolina’s catcher for the last two seasons, Messina was taken in the third round, 77th overall. There’s a rather large reg flag in his profile – his 6’, 230 lb frame and squarely middling defensive in-game skills. He does have intangible leadership qualities that boost his likelihood to remain at catcher, but it’s only a 50% shot at this juncture. Otherwise he’d move to 1B where he’ll really have to hit near his offensive ceiling to make it. He does have power – it’s his best attribute, and he has it to all fields. While he had trouble finding the barrel in his brief pro debut, when he squares up it’s at a great launch angle with great bat speed – he can really hit it a long way. He does have an adaptive approach at the plate too, and he rarely chases. But he also has a fair amount of zone whiff in his game. I don’t think it’ll lead to a high K% but it will affect quality of contact, and with foot speed as poor as his, the overall hit tool is below average, though there’s room for improvement. Messina is a pretty tough risk profile for the hobby and even though he will benefit from the Coors effect if he makes it, it’s only a 20-25 HR ceiling. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
Bryce Rainer, 19, SS
He was already a Day 1 talent heading into his senior year of high school as an athletic two-way player, but his season at Harvard-Westlake (which has recently produced Pete Crow-Armstrong and a plethora of D1 players) saw a congealment of his talent that had him taken in the top half of the 1st Round, 11th overall. He came into the season looking more physical than previous years – an indicator that he wanted to hit. It led to an uptick not only in his power output, but his defense at SS. He now has the physical look of a Gunnar Henderson out there with his 6’3” frame, and his added muscle has improved his range to the point where any deficiencies he still has in that regard are wiped out by his arm, which is clearly a plus asset. Defense will always be a great weapon of his whether he sticks at SS or not. Before his senior year he showed some promising power even though he frequently went to the opposite field. But now that he’s stronger and more comfortable going to the pull side, it's a really ascending tool that now figures to be at least above-average with maturity. His swing looks just really smooth up there. It’s a simple load that sets himself into a wide base that allows for easy weight transfer and lots of contact. He produces excellent exit velocity with regularity, even though he’s shortened his stroke with the increased strength. If I’m going to pick nits, he still gets a little off balance when he pulls the ball sometimes, which can spoil some really nice swings. Like any prep there’s a bit of a path to forge through, but without any major developmental roadblocks there’s every reason to think he should be able to do it quickly and at a young age. With the way the hobby loves to dream, Rainer is a fairly clear Tier 1 prospect. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 10 Both
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Ethan Schiefelbein, 18, P
Shiefelbein was signed for an overslot $1.8 MM as the Tigers’ Competitive balance pick, 72nd overall. He’s a 6`1” lefty who generally only works in the 89-92 range with his fastball, but his frame has definite room to push the upper limit of that to the mid-90’s. It’s mostly a movement pitch anyway, with significant armside run (I liked it’s movement better than Owen Hall’s). If the velo ticks up as it might and the shape maintains, it’s probably a plus pitch in the future. He also has a very nice curve/slider that has great movement, but it remains to be seen if he can better define the shape and command to transform it into one offering that’s truly one (or two?) with above average projection. He also has a change that looked pretty firm – it could either be scrapped or re-formed. Schiefelbein will be more of a watch-and-follow name than anything that’s definitely relevant for the hobby. He doesn’t have the same surefire hobby upside as Hall, but as a lefty that knows spin well, to me he has a better shot at eventually getting to the highest level. Of course, we don’t buy into pitchers whose 50th percentile outcome is just “getting” to the highest level. There needs to be mid-rotation of better, high-K upside. That’s something that’s just not a lock with Schiefelbein. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5 Both
Michael Massey, 21, P
Ignore what he did his Junior year at Wake Forest. It’s not representative of who he is as a pitching prospect, as he was battling a back injury that required surgery after the season for most of the year. That’s not to say he’s devoid of risk beyond that – he definitely isn’t. He has no enduring track record of being a successful starter, and he has a shortarm delivery with some effort that’s more befitting of a reliever. He’s plenty effective – the deception that that shortarm delivery affords assures that. The Wake Forest pitching lab has also done a good job of refining his already excellent stuff – in a relief role last year he struck out 47% of the batters he faced. His fastball has topped out at 97 and possesses excellent carry, and he pairs that with a sharp classic mid-80’s slider – both of those play as at least above-average assets. If he only ends up using those two pitches, he’d have a good shot of making it to Detroit as a bullpen piece. He does also have a changeup and a curve, and those will have to continue to develop to have a shot at starting. The Tigers will likely give him some time to figure things out as he puts injury behind him and to get comfortable with an expanded repertoire, so Massey will most assuredly not be a fast riser. As he also carries some pretty substantial bullpen risk, he’s an easy name to avoid for the hobby. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both
Woody Hadeen, 22, SS
Hadeen doesn’t have a profile with little power – he has a profile with almost no power. He played his Senior year at UC Irvine because his 2023 season was cut short by a shoulder injury, and it was a good year! He strung together a long on-base streak and in total posted a .524 OBP in total with a batting average over .350. He doesn’t swing and miss much at all and he excels with his zone discipline. He’s going to need every bit of that hit tool to make it to the majors in a significant role. The Tigers’ 6th Round pick is a bit underdeveloped from a strength standpoint, and it’s fair to wonder if he ever develops more as he’ll be 23 in July. He’s a good defender at SS, but his arm isn’t special so he doesn’t profile as a full time player there – he’ll likely be moved around the infield and developed as a utility piece. He does have good speed and figures to steal double digit bases. Hadeen is a better real life prospect than a hobby one and certainly provides defensive value to any team he’s a part of, and could even be a top-of-the-order guy in the minors. But I think his ceiling as a 350-400 PA MLB utility bat is one that’s not at all collectible, except for Tigers fans, Anteaters fans, and Hadeen himself! Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Parker Smith, 21, P
Strong and durable, Smith easily has projection as a starter in the near and long term. A three-year rotation mainstay at Rice, the latter two of which he threw over 85 innings, at 6’4” 230 lbs he’s a big body with a low three-quarters delivery. That arm slot accentuates the break on his sweeping slider which gets a lot of swing-and-miss – his go-to in favorable counts. Also typical for the arm slot, he features a sinker and a change to pair off of it. The sinker is into the mid-90’s, but it’s better at limiting damage with it than getting whiffs. In fact, his K% in total is quite underwhelming. He’s never struck out more than a batter per inning. His command also ticked back a hair this year, and all this combined left him as an underslot 4th Rounder. Look, Smith has good stuff and he’s a surefire starter – his pitch design is just designed to prevent hard contact (he allowed just 9 HR in 220 collegiate innings), and not get strikeouts. That’s a pretty big downer for the hobby, but he does have the floor of reaching the high minors. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 4 Both
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Jac Caglianone, 21, 1B/P
I write these words about Caglianone as the final writeup of our preview. He wasn’t a favorite for either of us – not because of his status as a clear Top 10 name in the product, but because we have zero idea how quickly his development will go or how fluidly it will go. We also have to essentially break down two players. While he hasn’t pitched yet as a pro, there are no plans one way or the other to scrap that element of his game at this juncture. But as a hitter he already had a 126 PA debut at High-A and followed that up with another 97 in the AFL, with decent performance throughout. One would think something’s gotta give and it’ll be the pitching...but not yet. As a pitcher he’s a raw talent, but one with loads of potential. His fastball has been up into the triple digits and he pairs it with a cutter and change-up to great effect in terms of strikeouts. His below-average command (putting it nicely) saw him getting hit too frequently though, and that was a continuing trend from last year without improvement. As a hitter, he did improve in his Junior year at Florida though. That’s really saying something, considering that in 2023 he led all of NCAA D-1 in HR with 33. This year he topped that with 35 HR, and also had drastic improvements in his BB%, K%, and batting average. This is to say, Caglionone showed that he’s still developing. That’s a scary thing for a player who’s 6’5” with a super-athletic frame. His physical skills are top-of-the-scale. He stands in at the plate with his bat wrapped behind his head, and sets his feet very wide before unfurling a long swing with immense bat speed. The elements of the swing are concerning on their own, and routinely squaring up is indeed the biggest issue. However, he’s gotten better at his pitch selection and chase (still plenty of room to improve). That helps his hit tool play closer to average. His power in raw form is the best in the class, and his launch angle is ideal for liners and homers. Just watch the highlights – it’s missile after missile, and every now and then you get something like a 516 ft HR to put an exclamation point on top of an exclamation point. Being a human highlight reel is certainly something the hobby gets behind – there’s nothing quiet about the way Caglianone performs on the field. Defensively he’s a 1B-only but a good defender there, and he’s not a threat on the bases. It’s irrelevant to us – his power by itself is undeniable enough to push him into Tier 2, and the improvements as a hitter push him to the top of that tier. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Drew Beam, 21, P
Drafted in the 3rd Round from Tennessee, Beam is certainly a well known collegiate name. But hobby-wise he’s a tick lower. He’s a floor play for the Royals – a guy who’s very likely to make it to the majors as a starter, but may never level up to a mid-rotation ceiling. He has excellent secondaries, highlighted by his high-80’s change that may already be a plus pitch. He also has a loopy curve with some promise, and a cutter. His fastball has gotten into the high-90’s but he generally works 93-95. It has classic traits with some armside run and he certainly fills up the zone with the pitch, but it’s movement isn’t so great that it earns a lot of misses (all told just a 23 K% his Junior year). He’s really just better at limiting hard contact. While his secondaries are his bread and butter, none of them have sharp movement – they all move a lot, but they look like they’re floating in different directions. It generally worked at the highest collegiate stage, but he did get hit harder when the book started coming out that he was going to challenge you with consistency. Beam could be one of the first pitchers from the 2024 Draft to reach the majors – his repertoire in its current state is likely to get MLB-quality hitters out. I’d love for him to develop a sharper breaker so he gets more swing-and-miss altogether, but that’s just a wish so I can call him more significant for the hobby. He’s more than likely a backend rotation piece. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 4 Both
AJ Causey, 22, P
If only pitchers didn’t need a fastball to function. Causey is a sidewinding righty who played for the national champion Tennessee squad, where he was a bulk reliever. But not really how you think. He’s so much stronger against RHH that an opener was used, then he was strategically deployed for his outing, which averaged nearly 5 innings apiece. His 90 inning total is certainly that of a starter’s workload. That lends to the chance that he can stick as a starter as he develops in the minors, but everything else about him screams reliever. As I opened with, his low-90’s fastball is not a good pitch. It needs pinpoint location, which he doesn’t have, to be effective because it lacks anything close to ideal shape. Sure, the deception from the sidearm delivery helps, but it’s more of a help to his bread and butter pitches. Those would be his changeup and slider. His changeup is an absolute nightmare for righties. It’s a low-80’s offering that coming from his arm slot, appears to never get higher than the batter’s knees, and then dives in and down. His slider is what you expect, with loads of horizontal break. Although it’s proven tough to square up, his repertoire is not dynamic enough to make it much of a chase pitch. Personally, I’d prefer Causey if he were just employed as a reliever right away. His lack of command becomes less important that way, and he could be in the majors as soon as late 2025. Whether he’s tried as a starter or not, he’s still not a great name for the hobby and lacks high-end upside. But Vols collectors will be all over him as a cheap get. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3 Base-Only
Tanner Jones, 21, P
A transfer to Texas A&M from Jacksonville State for the 2024 season gave Jones a bigger stage for his draft eligible season, but he got hit really hard and ended up as just a 6th Round pick. He certainly has a mix that visually looks effective. It’s a fastball that he works with in the mid-90’s with some armside run and carry up in the zone. His cutter is in the the 89-91 range and is an effective weapon against lefties especially. His change is a little firm from a movement perspective, but it offers a nice velocity difference from his fastball. He also has a slurvy slider that looks a bit predictable from the moment it leaves his hand. You can see the bones of a pitcher that’s a few developmental steps away from being a viable starter here – his athletic body lends itself to that too. But at A&M he didn’t show an ability to handle workload because he was getting hit too frequently –it was under 50 innings. As he’s sure to be a bit of a project and not a quick riser for multiple reasons, it’s fair to disregard him for the hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Base-Only
L.P. Langevin, 21, P
Taken in the 4th Round, the Quebec native (his name is pronounced LAHN-zhuh-vonn) was outstanding in Louisiana-Lafayette’s bullpen this year after transferring from a JuCo. And by outstanding, I mean a 39 K% in 62 innings. Though it was a bulk role, there’s not much chance he converts to being a starter as a pro. That’s because he only has one really effective pitch, and it’s a nasty, nasty fastball. He comes at you with a low arm slot with the 93-95 MPH offering and to hitters, it seems to take a late left turn – it generated a 45% whiff rate. In zone, out of zone…doesn’t matter. It’s easily a plus pitch despite not having the normal velocity plus fastballs have. He compliments it with a slider and change but neither are really pro-level pitches at this point. He’s not a strong hobby name by any means but he may be coming to a Pitching Ninja highlight reel near you in a few years. He’s better than a bottom-level prospect for the hobby because there’s a small chance he ends up as a closer ont day. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
Christian Moore, 22, 2B
Of the seven(!) Tennessee players taken in the MLB Draft who are in this product, Moore is very clearly the top dog, just as he was on that National Champion Volunteers team all year, collecting 111 hits (1st in NCAA Division 1) and slugging 34 HR (3rd). The Angels drafting a dynamic big-stage performer like Moore with their 1st Round pick (8th overall) seemed like a bit of an eyeroll because everyone knew they were going to promote him aggressively right away, and everyone knew Moore has flaws in his game tied to too much chase and aggression. While those issues persist, Moore absolutely still looked like a dude all the way into 98 PA stint in AA. His ability to barrel – his quality of contact – just remained incredible. No batted ball profile will support the .429 BABIP he posted, but his is kinda close. As I alluded to, the rate of contact is something to watch. Moore posted a near-30 K%, chased a ton, and missed in-zone quite a bit in his debut. That’ll have to get cleaned up as he moves to a full season of play. But I don’t want it to be cured completely. Moore is comfortable setting into a deep, deep coil and unleashing a long, powerful stroke that not many players are able to accomplish with any degree of success. The fact that he’s able to manipulate the barrel to use all fields while doing it is incredibly impressive. If he tones it down, I don’t know who we’d be looking at. Maybe his improvements just come in the form of swing decisions? I’d settle for that. Regarding Moore’s defense, his poor consistency, middling arm, and the Angels’ jam-him-through mentality make him a 100% lock for 2B without much of a chance for another position. Moore’s speed is fine, but it doesn’t lend itself well to being a base-stealing threat. Moore should be a Top 5 name in this product considering his stellar debut, high draft pedigree, and clear 30 HR potential. But he doesn’t come without risk of busting due to an overly high K rate. The thing is, that bust may be in the majors as the Angels figure to give him a shot to play in Anaheim as soon as next season. So from a perspective of being a prospect, his risk is very minimal. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Ryan Johnson, 22, P
Taken 74th overall as compensation for losing Shohei Ohtani in free agency, Johnson’s delivery is so weird and funky that it’s hard to describe. It’s definitely one with high-effort that on its head means reliever, but he’s put together multiple seasons of a large workload at Dallas Baptist. He throws from a low arm angle coming from a 6’6” righty frame, which lends itself well to horizontal movement. He understands this, as his best pitch, already a pro-quality plus offering, is a sweeper with excellent movement that he’s able to pound the zone with – he throws that pitch quite often. His fastball that can get to the high-90’s (usually 92-95) also is commanded very well, but it’s a little flat at times. To pair better off his sweeper he’s developed a cutter that has above average potential, but could have a little more refinement. With what’s likely to be his two best pitches anecdotally better against same-hand batters, and a slot that has his arm well into the RH batter’s box, there’s a better chance he ends up as a stud reliever. I like him quite a bit to reach that, and I think he could be both quick to the majors and have a long career there. But for him to have success as a pro in his (currently) established role as a starter? I dunno man. He’ll begin his pro career as that, and the Angels will surely be aggressive with an assignment to Rocket City to begin 2025. I like his floor better than Chris Cortez, and on the off-chance that he sticks as a starter I’ll bump his ceiling up to match. He doesn’t profile as a future closer like Cortez though. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 4 Both
Chris Cortez, 22, P
Look, the Angels do know what they’re doing in the Draft – it’s just not exciting for the hobby. They prioritize quick-to-the majors talent that usually lacks a significant ceiling. Cortez certainly bucks a part of that mold with a plus fastball that gets into the triple digits and a slider to match, both of which generate enormous amounts of chase, and in turn swing-and-miss – it’s just everything else that lowers his profile back to the “traditional Angels pick” mold. An underslot signing in the 2nd Round from Texas A&M, he’s filled a multi-inning bullpen role for the last three years. He could be trotted out as a starter to see if something can stick in that regard, but I don’t expect an experiment like that to last long (if at all). He’s 6’1” but his frame is on the more compact side, and he has a shortarm, high-effort delivery. He also has pretty poor command. As I mentioned he’s gotten a lot of swing-and-miss which provides a good amount of deodorant, but hitters will be more mature at high levels, and at his best his BB rate was already sitting around 13%. The Angels could really fast track him to the majors as soon as Opening Day – he’s a ready made reliever if they chose to push him. But success isn’t a lock, and he hasn’t thrown at all in Pro ball yet, so it’s likely a start at AA to see how well his two-pitch arsenal fares. His ceiling is definitely that of a closer, but without that role in hand he’s easily a Tier None name. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 4 Both
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
Zyhir Hope, 19, OF
Hope is an interesting hobby case. As of this writing it’s not known if he will have the ‘1st Bowman’ designation in this set. He’s not a 2024 Draftee, but also hasn’t been on any official checklists from Topps. That’s intentional phrasing – he was featured by Topps in the “my 1st Bowman” inscription promotion material as having an autograph in 2024 Bowman, and we’ve also seen some of those autograph cards from 2024 Bowman. But it’s literally less than a handful. It smells more like an error that he was included at all to me, than a player who was short printed. Anyhow, we’re writing him up here because we haven’t before. And when he’s featured in future prospect releases after his inclusion here, he certainly won’t have the 1st Bowman designation.
Hope was drafted in the 11th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Cubs and signed for 400k – 5th Round money. He’s always been a high-ceiling dart throw. The Dodgers got him and Jackson Ferris in the Michael Busch trade – not exactly a fleece because Busch was productive for the Cubs this year, but man have both of these prospects furthered their ascents. Hope did go down to injury for a good chunk of the season, but not before he put himself more squarely on the map by slugging over .500 at Low-A for a month. When he came back in July it was more of the same, and perhaps most impressively he showed patience at the plate (he didn’t chase, well, anything – a 99th% O-Swing) while still being able to do a sizable amount of damage. He really has incredible bat speed for his 5`10” frame, and with a swing path geared for line drives it’s easy to see many (more) of them going over the fence with more maturity. He’s already physically mature too, with thick muscular legs that lend themself well to his plus-plus speed. Yeah, that’s right, this dude’s also an elite runner, although he hasn't tried to steal much to date. It does make him quite the valuable piece in CF though. I don’t want to make too much of what he did in the AFL as one of the youngest players there, but *cough* 470 ft HR *cough*. While I waxed on about his ability to identify pitches well and not chase, the effort in his swing leads to quite a bit of swing-and-miss. Sorry! You’re just going to have to deal with a hit tool that will sometimes play as below average! It absolutely has zero bearing on his hobby relevance, which is extreme. Especially with this ballclub, he’s a top 5 name in this product…if only he had autos. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 10 Base-Only
Tier 2
Kellon Lindsey, 19, SS
When one talks about a prep with 5-tool projection, there’s almost always some stretching of a tool to call him that. With Linsdey it’s his power grade, but there’s no doubt the other tools project as at least above average, and his hit and speed are likely even better. That’s what got him drafted in the 1st Round, 23rd overall. He’s 6’2” and has plenty of projection remaining in his body, which should lend itself well to furthering his already elite speed. The sky's the limit on his SB ceiling. Though he hasn’t played baseball full-time for long (he was also a legitimate prospect as a QB), he doesn’t fit the “raw premium athlete” mold – he’s already shown a bit of feel for the barrel and zone discipline without major swing-and-miss concerns. So again, we’re talking about a tool that already has some floor and anecdotally, a very high ceiling. And defensively he’s improved already too since moving to solely baseball. If he doesn’t stick at SS, he’d likely be a defensive weapon at 2B or CF too. There’s upward trends everywhere and a hobby profile to love, even without a ton of power. But we can squint and see than when he’s fully developed, there could be a 15-20 HR ceiling in him – something as high as Trea Turner is in the realm of possibilities. Of course there is a long path forward to get there, but that doesn’t matter too much. The dream is big and especially in the Dodgers market, interest should be quite high. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 3
Chase Harlan, 18, 3B
Harlan isn’t your typical prep 3rd Round projection pick. He’s already a big, muscular kid who tips the scales at 6’3” 205, and that physicality should continue to grow as he matures – he doesn’t turn 19 until July. He was signed away from a Clemson commitment for a well-overslot $1.75 MM. Power is the name of his game, but he has a solid approach for his age as well. He sets up in a deeper athletic crouch with only a small leg kick and gets to a good launch position, and that strength affords some pretty fantastic bat speed. His swing looked pretty stiff as recently as last fall, but based on limited more recent video it looked quite a bit more fluid. I think that fluidity will go a long way towards making his hit tool more palatable. He’s not a particularly fast runner and isn’t likely to ever be much of a threat on the basepaths, but he should retain enough speed, and definitely has the arm strength, to stick as a corner OF if 3B doesn’t work out. He’s a really good name for the hobby as a dart throw, and being drafted into the Dodgers market should only intensify interest in him. I’m not going to put a number on his power ceiling with so much in-game maturation needed, but we’ll call it “significant”. If somehow being a 3rd Rounder lowers his prices, I’d be very interested in him. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Brooks Auger, 23, P
A really intriguing pick by the Dodgers in the 6th round of the draft, Auger started the year in the Mississippi State bullpen a year-removed from TJ surgery. By the end of the year, he was back in the rotation and putting up some impressive outings. His dismantling of Ole Miss in the SEC tournament was particularly eye-opening, as it took just 78 pitches to get through 8 innings. 66 of those pitches were strikes, leading to 13 strikeouts. The slider was particularly effective in that outing, generating a ton of whiffs and the majority of those strikeouts. It was in the 86 - 90 mph range with a tight, vertical break. The fastball was mostly in the 92-94 range, and was particularly effective when he elevated it. There was a low-80’s fading change-up that was thrown occasionally as well, and also showed it could be effective. Being part of the Dodgers pitching dev system seems to be both a blessing and a curse right now - they likely are able to optimize Auger and get the best out of him. But the injury risk in that system for some unknown reason also seems to be a higher risk than normal. All that means is that we sort of have to step gingerly in buying Dodgers pitchers for the Hobby. With Auger coming off of TJ, and likely on an innings cap in 2025, I can’t imagine the hype getting out of control, even if he does pitch well. There’s a mid-rotation ceiling here, but we are a long way off from seeing it. The stuff is easily Tier 3 from what I saw of him at his best, but the lack of a track record, the somewhat recent TJ surgery, and him likely not ending up on any prospect lists this off-season, are all reasons the general public probably would rank Auger in Tier None. I’m going to rank him optimistically in Tier 3, but it’s definitely a caveat emptor situation. I’ll be keeping my eyes on Auger in 2025. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7 Base Only
Tier None
None
Miami Marlins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Carter Johnson, 18, SS
It’s not fair to say: top Alabama prep SS – probably another Gunnar Henderson! But that’s where his ceiling has generally been talked about, and after being taken in the 2nd Round and signing for an overslot $2.6 MM, that won’t be going away. To be honest when I look at Johnson, I don’t see the comp. Johnson has a nice projectable frame but his body isn’t close to fully developed yet and he has a swing to match that. It’s definitely a swing that’s long at times and he doesn’t engage his lower half particularly well – he looks more like a contact hitter up there at present. It’s all projection – it’s fair to trust development will come, but the Marlins have been a black hole for hitter dev of late – I think it’s fair to consider the chances of reaching a ceiling is a bit less in this system. The Marlins did aggressively run him out to Low-A for 121 PAs, and it (maybe expectedly) wasn’t pretty. His particular weaknesses were failure to make contact when he chased, and inconsistent quality of contact in general. He did post some nice exit velocities though, and he ended up in the 88th% in that debut. There’s definitely some nice clay here. He may end up moving off of SS because he’s a bigger kid for the position (again, like Henderson), but he should retain significant defensive value – it gives him a very small ledge of a floor. The system he was drafted into is Johnson's biggest negative in hobby context, cutting down his demand from both a market and development perspective. The rawness pushes him down a little further. Players of his ilk should never be forgotten, but he is for now, easily a Tier 3 name, no more. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7 Both
Aiden May, 21, P
After a rough first season at the University of Arizona after coming from the JC ranks, May transferred to Oregon State and turned himself into a viable first day draft pick. Taken in the second round by the Marlins, May now looks like he could be a future rotation piece with a plus slider leading the way. The slider is the whiff generator with a big horizontal break to it and as Tyler Jennings, our Director of Amateur Scouting said, it was arguably the best slider in the entire draft. The fastball sits mid-90’s and the third pitch is a lesser used change-up. The biggest issue is his command, and that slider can start in the zone and end up outside it on a regular basis. If you aren’t getting a swing-happy team, he can be a lot less effective. But then you get the games with the aggressive teams and May looks like an SP1 as that slider can be unhittable at times. Oftentimes I will watch a lesser-known, starting prospect pitcher and think there is reliever risk, but also a back-end starter potentially in the cards. It’s much rarer to get a look at a prospect pitcher with mid-rotation or better upside with a high leverage reliever floor and both are equally weighted outcomes. Another pitcher in this product, Brody Brecht, is in that same sort of phylum, but Brecht is a much more recognizable name with perhaps a bit more Hobby hype. May is likely a complete unknown in this product and should be in the price range of the Tier None pitchers. If that’s the case, I would definitely spend a few bucks just in case the command continues to solidify and he gets closer to his ceiling than his floor. In the Miami pitching pipeline, that isn’t a bad bet to make. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
Gage Miller, 21, 2B
Miller proved he was more than just a JuCo standout this year after transferring to Alabama, where he put up excellent numbers in the SEC highlighted by 18 HR and more BB than K. He’s hit over power, but when he pulls in his hands and goes to left field, there’s definitely enough pop for double digit HR in the future. He ran a near-elite contact rate in college, and you can see why when you watch him in the box. Miller sets up with hands low and engages his lower half well into a flat swing plane. His hands look like lighting in there – if he learns how to manipulate the barrel better, it’s a plus hit tool. That didn’t show at all in his pro debut (at mostly High-A). His zone contact rate was actually pretty bad, and while he made contact at a nearly equal rate outside the zone, he chased far too often. The results were a sub-.500 OPS. Not a great start for a player who was supposed to have a higher floor. Defensively, his arm isn’t great so he’s a 2B through and through (despite 3B experience at Alabama). Miller should have some ceiling for the hobby, and could touch 20 HR if everything pans out. There’s just not a long track record of success here and the team context is as bad as it gets. Pretty easily a Tier None name. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5 Both
Grant Shepardson, 19, P
The biggest marks against Shepardson are a short track record and playing mostly against lesser competition. He’s a Colorado prep who popped up significantly in the last 18 months, increasing his fastball velocity markedly from the high-80’s to the mid-90’s, with some good shape to go with it. Taken in the 5th Round and signed for an overslot 900k (3rd Round money), it’s really interesting that a good development org for pitching like the Marlins took him. With an athletic 6’1” frame, if he continues to ascend from a raw numbers perspective, I have faith the Marlins will help him maximize his effectiveness. Right now he pairs that fastball with a very nice mid-80’s slider that shows promise of being at least an above average pitch in the future. He’s also shown a curve and change, but those are squarely just in development. Shepardson is definitely just a project pitcher who won’t move quickly, but he has the bones of a hobby-significant pitcher in a good organization to help him get there. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6 Base-Only
Fenwick Trimble, 22, OF
Though his parents gave him one of the best names in the class, Trimble doesn’t have the actual baseball skills to match. He’s a do-it-all type with no tools that play as better than average or have projection as such. Taken in the 4th Round from James Madison, he’s an all-fields slasher. His swing plane is a flat and he doesn’t hit many fly balls at all, which eats into any over-the-fence pop he has. He showed a bit of a power/speed combo at JMU, but I think his debut at Low-A Jupiter (127 PAs) tells a better story than what he did in the Sun Belt. There, he showed himself to be excellent at contact both in the zone and out, but he chased those pitches out of the zone far too much, which led to frequent low quality of contact and a very low BB%. On the positive side he hit the ball decently hard – if his hard hit balls didn’t have such low trajectory, more would have ended up as doubles or better. He also showed his true colors as a fringy runner, being successful on 11 of 17 attempts. He can play all over the OF but his true home is likely LF, as his speed and arm are a best fit there. I think Fenwick has potential to make it to the majors with improvements to his launch angle and plate discipline. Essentially, I’d like to see him look more like a top-of-the order hitter. But that wishcasting aside, he’s a second division regular and not very interesting for the hobby. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Braylon Payne, 18, OF
Like many, on Draft Day I wondered why the Brewers took a guy who looked squarely like a second rounder with their first pick at 18th overall. Underslot obviously – and it was over $ 1 MM in savings – but at some point the talent matters. Well…he may just have the talent. It wasn’t enough to draw conclusions from as it was only 4 games, but he produced several triple digit exit velo’s in those games and looked like a true terror on the basepaths. Payne is absolutely “just” a hit/speed guy, but his speed is likely double-plus and plays as such, and the projection of his hit also squarely looks like a plus asset. He’s a line drive hitter who opens his hips early to allow for maximum contact-ability, but he doesn’t lose much power from the lack of synchronicity. His 6’2” frame still has a ways to go developmentally and he won’t be 19 until August, so I think some of those liners will eventually go over the fence. And if he learns to keep his hips closed in select counts to tap in better, those exit velocities show that his power could be at least an average asset. There’s a lot of “if’s” in that statement of course. In the field he’s a CF through and through, and could be a plus defender there as well in time. Right now the projection on his arm keeps me from squinting to call him a potential 5-tool guy, but like I said there’s a bit of strength left to come..so…maybe? Because the Complex leagues were shifted and he only got into a few games there’s a bit of a cloud over just how impressive he’s been since being drafted. If, coupled with the mediocre hobby market, that creates a bit of a price vacuum, I would be in without a moment of hesitation. I will acquiesce that while he will squarely be an above-average major leaguer if it all pans out, it’s not a perfect hobby profile because of his lack of realistic projectable game power. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8 Both
Blake Burke, 21, 1B
A year after selecting a bat with potentially prodigious power and questionable position in Brock Wilken (who’s surprised a bit in becoming a legitimate 3B defensively), the Brewers doubled up with a similar profile in Burke. Taken with the pick acquired from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade at 34th overall, he has a long track record for power at Tennessee – he smashed 50 HR in his three years there. His swing is on the longer side by design, which really lets him get to excellent bat speed and post extreme top-end exit velocity. He’s even shown an ability to go to all fields too, and that leads to hope that his hit tool could play as average. I don’t think quality of contact will be much of an issue, but he’s a really aggressive swinger and a bit prone to chase. With that longer swing, he misses quite a bit. His K% should be expected to be in the high-20’s, but if the rest of his profile is showing good results, I’d expect that to be sticky. He’s not a great athlete – he’s a bit of a plodder on the bases and does not have an alternative position to 1B. His path to legitimate stardom is through a more disciplined approach at the plate. In a few years, if that happens he’ll be a mold-breaker for what the Brewers have been doing at 1B. For an absolute ceiling, to me we need to look no further than what the 2024 Brewers’ 1B did before his time in Milwaukee. A lefty version of Rhys Hoskins probably gets to more game power than Rhys did too in his peak years, and that’s something that’s pretty, pretty intriguing for the hobby. Because of the positional limitations his path is narrower, but the ceiling, especially in hobby-terms, is significant. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Bryce Meccage, 18, P
Drafted in the 2nd Round at 57th overall and signed for an overslot $2.5 MM, the Brewers got a great project in Meccage. He really knows how to spin the ball well, and the Brewers are excellent at developing and refining pitchers of that ilk. His mid-80’s slider is his best breaker followed by a slower sweepy curve – both have MLB-quality potential, with the slider potentially plus – how they develop will determine his ceiling. He also has a change that’s in early stages of development. His fastball has ticked up in velocity in the last 12 months and he now works regularly in the mid-90’s – it’s a pitch that he uses up in the zone quite a bit, where it has excellent ride. His command, from what I saw, is where he needs the most work. As he works up in the zone a lot, he frequently misses high. He also has a bit of effort in his delivery, but it seems like something can be cleaned up, especially because he has a very nice, athletic 6’4” frame to work with. From a hobby perspective I’m most interested in the landing spot. Last year’s CB-A pick, Josh Knoth, has similar spin traits but was more raw than Meccage is, and he showed flashes of fantastic swing-and-miss stuff this year. I would expect the same from Meccage, but perhaps his more advanced repertoire levels him up to consistency sooner. At this early stage I’ll say he has #2 SP upside – just expect him to take awhile to get there. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier None
Jaron DeBerry, 22, P
DeBerry is a rail-thin 6’3” Senior sign the Brewers took in the 3rd Round as a cost-savings measure. The Dallas Baptist product was not highly regarded as a Draft prospect and signed for just $25k. He excelled in limiting hard contact, allowing just a .218 BAA, and it’s mostly due to his offspeed offerings. He alters the shape of those pitches (or that pitch?) intentionally, and we can call it anything from a high-70’s curve to a mid-80’s slider. It works better when it’s slower with greater depth, because it doesn’t have the sharpest of breaks. His fastball is nothing special at 92-93 in both shape and velocity, but he has shown an ability to cut it when he wants for a different look. It’s easy to see what the Brewers, as the spin doctors of MLB development organizations, see in him. He worked as a starter this year for the first time and ran his innings up to 90, but given his frame it’s fair to question whether that can continue. I also think there’s further relief risk given his age and how quickly expect him to progress through the minors. He has the breaking ball that could end up as a plus pitch, which would make him a weapon out of the bullpen. I’d place my bets that he ends up there, but there’s a good chance he makes it to at least the high minors. He doesn’t have much hobby relevance. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 2 Both
Chandler Welch, 21, P
Though he’s only 6’0” and wasn’t a highly regarded draft prospect at Tulane, Welch profiles to develop as a starter because he’s both physically mature and proved his durability. His delivery does have some effort in it, but he’s athletic enough to make it work and has shown above average command. He throws a bevy of pitches up there, his fastball not being one of the better ones. It does have some life but generally only works at 91-92 MPH. He was likely appealing to the Brewers because he does know how to spin it. His cutter and slider are his best pitches, and they both flash above-average potential. The Brewers are excellent at getting the most out of pitchers like this, so I like Welch’s chances of eventually making it to the back of the Brewers’ rotation. He definitely does not have much of a ceiling at all though, and that leaves him far off the radar for the hobby. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Billy Amick, 22, 3B
After a fantastic sophomore year at Clemson, Amick went to the Cape Cod league and tore it up, and also transferred to Tennessee where he really proved himself further to be one of the better power bats in the Draft. It’s not an asset that will definitely play as a plus yet, but if everything comes together, 25-30 HR are possible. Amick slipped to the 2nd Round because that power is his only projectable above average asset, but he’s not one dimensional either. He has a really well rounded approach at the plate, sacrificing power in unfavorable counts to try to better use all fields. He starts in a coiled crouch and launches well with a sweet looking swing. Before going out to an injury at the beginning of September, his power was showing well in Low-A debut as well. He does tend to chase too much, and that lowers his hit tool to an average-at-best projection. There’s also some worry he ends up at 1B long term. But if he sticks at 3B and his power continues to show along with his mature approach, it won’t be all that important. He’s a better hobby prospect than a real life one, and even a hair better hobby-wise than the Twins’ two draftees who went ahead of him. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7 Both
Kaelen Culpepper, 21, SS
Culpepper certainly seems to have a nice floor. The Twins’ 1st Rounder from Kansas State, he impressed with a sub-15 K% in his Junior year and showed his power was back into form after a broken hand his sophomore year. That’s not to say he has better than average potential game power. He is 6’, but he plays smaller than that in the box – his compact swing is flat and all about getting to the ball quickly, where he’s shown a really good ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. It’s mostly ground balls and liners though, and he does not hunt for power or look to put the ball in the air much at all, by design. His ability to make contact stood out in his debut in both A levels, where he posted excellent zone contact numbers. Culpepper is not a speedster and likely only provides a few SB, but his mobility may be good enough to stick at SS – a position he played full-time collegiately for the first time this year. I think the Twins taking him this high lends to the belief that he can be an answer there, but if he’s moved to 3B his defense could be Gold Glove caliber. His arm is his best tool. Hobby-wise though, we’re most interested in that hit tool. As quality of contact was an issue in his brief time at High-A, he really needs to prove his barrel control can be what it was at K-State. If it is, he'll be an MLB lineup mainstay in the infield at the very least. Without an offensive tool that definitely has above average projection (his hit being the likeliest to get there) I don’t think the hobby ceiling is great. But if Culpepper quickly proves himself in the high minors he could be one of the first bats to debut because of that defense. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Jaime Ferrer, 21, OF
A three year starter at Florida State, Ferrer is a big, physical RF prototype who experienced a significant power surge in his Junior year that had him drafted in the 4th Round. That power surge wasn’t a result of some swing change – he just started making better decisions at the plate. He’s still a very aggressive hitter at the plate, but his BB% ticked up from 4 to 9, and that’s made a big difference. He stands in the box with his hands set low – it saps a little bit of his power but he engages his lower half so well and he’s so strong that he was able to really hammer anything soft or inside with frequency. In his 93 PA debut in Low-A he didn’t homer but did have 8 doubles. His old habit of chasing too much reared it’s head in that debut, and while it didn’t lead to K% at all, I think this moderate power output is what we should expect. But the good thing is that Ferrer has shown an ability to make adjustments, so there’s some significant hope that he can develop int a hobby significant player. He’s a dyed-in-the-wool RF with a good arm on the defensive side, and his speed should be good enough to stick there, but he’s not a threat on the basepaths. My personal preference is to not buy into the hyper-aggressive profile (which Ferrer is again trending towards) because it’s so risky as these players get to the upper levels. But I will say there’s also 20+ HR potential here. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both
New York Mets
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Carson Benge, 21, OF
The Mets’ first Round pick from Oklahoma State, I love Benge’s outlook for the hobby. He makes it look really easy at the plate to stay on plane, starting with an open stance then closing to a toe tap as the pitcher comes home. It’s a swing that looks like it’s impossible to produce weak contact – full of effort but equally able to use all fields. His barrel control is excellent – he regularly produces excellent exit velocity from his 6’1” frame. A swing like his will produce some swing-and-miss but Benge is also really good at pitch identification and that should leave his hit tool as a whole as an above average asset if it all pans out. A two-way player in college, the Mets drafted him as a hitter where he got off to a good start in Low-A St. Lucie where he posted a 91st percentile hard hit rate (as I would’ve expected). How he translates all these hard hit balls to power remains to be seen, but 25+ HR is possible, and a high OBP would be inherent within that. It’s also intriguing to see how much he can grow as a hitter as he moves to hitting full-time (Yes, that's a hobby trope but one I will fall for every time). Benge clearly has the arm for RF and that’s likely his long-term home, but he has shown excellent range and upward defensive trajectory as a premium athlete, so it’s possible he can be developed as a CF as well. He’s not a major threat on the bases, but with everything else working in his favor, is that important? I don’t think he belongs in the top tier for the hobby because I don’t think any of his tools truly grade as having plus projection, but above average across the board is in the realm of possibilities and there’s a good probability that he gets to much of it. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Jonathan Santucci, 21, P
After showing some significant promise at Duke last year but being shut down to an elbow injury, Santucci went into this year looking to prove his health and further the thought of his being worthy of a first round selection. That didn’t happen, as he threw just 58 innings – it was a combination of a rib injury and command issues that caused it. But his ceiling remains significant. Taken in the 2nd Round, the 6’2” lefty is really athletic out there on the mound. It’s category two, but I wouldn’t peg him as someone who’s injuries will persist. His stuff is great. He comes at you with an over the top delivery that allows his 92-95 MPH fastball to have some really nice run and carry, He challenges righties inside and up in the zone with it to great effect. His slider isn’t consistent with its shape, but at its best it's a wipeout offering with an excellent two plane break that’s impossible for lefties to make contact with. He doesn’t use his change much, but it’s said to have solid promise as well. He uses this arsenal to get lots of strikeouts – he posted a 14 K/9 in his Junior year. He definitely has the high-K upside we like our pitchers to have in the hobby. But he also needs to level up his command to make it as a starter – walking 5 batters per 9 innings isn’t going to work in pro ball. It’s only the three pitches right now, but none of his pitches will be worse than above-average if everything comes together. Folks, that’s a potential #2 SP. Of course there’s a lot to prove, but the foundation of a pitcher who’s very significant for the hobby is here. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier None
Eli Serrano, 21, OF
Though he played at NC State for two years and put up some pretty good contact numbers there, Serrano remains mostly projection. The Mets’ 4th Rounder has a great frame to build from at 6`5” 200 lbs, but he hasn’t physically matured much since high school and he gets to little game power. He does know how to use his levers – he hits the ball plenty hard – but his swing is really flat and he doesn’t create much backspin. It’s something that could make him really intriguing if he alters that swing path to get to more power. He performed with maturity in college and did a good job of getting on base, but he was markedly worse in all aspects against lefties, and I wonder if that pushes him down to a platoon bat ceiling unless he improves. Serrano’s debut in Low-A was pretty impressive. As expected he posted some really nice exit velocities (resulting in 7 XBH) and toward the end of his 17 games he showed an ability to adjust and got to some significant launch angle – something that was an issue for him all along at NC State. Will that be sticky? Probably not, but it gives us an idea that Serrano does have some ceiling that he can get to at the pro level. Defensively he’s likely just a corner OF, and even with his skinny frame he’s no threat on the basepaths – I wonder if that becomes an issue if he adds more mass but continues to hit the ball on the ground too much. With all the ways this writeup has gone you can see how Serrano’s variance is closer to a prep bat than one coming from a major collegiate program – but he is an intriguing one for the hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Both
Trey Snyder, 19, SS
To sway him from a Tennessee commitment, Snyder signed for $1.32 MM after being taken 144th overall, well overslot. There are more exciting prep SS in this class, but for a 4th Rounder Snyder has quite a bit of a floor – so much that the Mets sent him out for a taste of Low-A after his signing. He sets up with his hands low and a simple leg kick to set his timing without significant coil – it makes his swing plane flat and designed for simple contact. He’s really adept at finding the barrel on most pitches. While there is not not much power at present, he has a good body and is quite well built already at 6’2” 200 lbs. If he finds success with his current approach it’s fair to think that some power comes with maturity. His body has already grown out of being a plus asset on the bases, but his fundamental foundation should have him sticking at SS in at least the near-term. Hobby-wise, his most intriguing assets are the Mets market and his youth. Sure, his hit tool could end up really good, but I’m not comfortable saying it has plus projection at this juncture – I’d want to see a bit more gap-to-gap pop to say that, and he does tend to chase a bit. This feels like a player who’s more of a Guardians pick than a Mets pick, but it’s certainly better for the hobby that he’s a Met! Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Both
Nate Dohm, 21, P
Drafted in the 3rd Round, Dohm is a bit of a risky pick because he missed time with a forearm strain this year. To put a bit of a further negative hobby slant on it, 2024 was his first time as a starter in college and he’s never thrown more than 42 innings in a season. When he was on the mound for Mississippi State this year though, he was excellent. In the four games he started and went deep, he gave up just 4 ER while striking out 32 in 24 innings. He features a fastball that topped out at 97 with some armside run that comes from a crossfire delivery, so it can be tough to pick up. The velocity of that fastball isn’t consistent though, and sits as low as 93 on occasion. His best secondary is his hard downer of a slider that’s generally in the high-80’s. It’s quality is equal to that of his fastball at present, both being above-average potential. His change is a work in progress, and the injury hindered it’s development this year. Dohm was more concerned with coming back and proving his health, which he did for several relief appearances in May. There’s a high level of relief risk with Dohm as he’s never handled the workload of a starter and doesn’t currently have a well-rounded arsenal. The Mets are likely to try him in the rotation first, but don’t be shocked if the experiment ends sooner rather than later. He’s clearly not a strong hobby name at present. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both
New York Yankees
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Bryce Cunningham, 21, P
Cunningham was the Yankees second pick at 53rd overall, but I think he’s their top hobby option from the 2024 class. The Vanderbilt product is primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, but both have at least above average projection. I know, there’s a fairly poor history of those two pitches alone working for top-line starters. Cunningham also has a fairly short track record of success in a starting role – really just some summer ball and the 2024 Commodores season. I think those things can be attributed to his being on the slower side to develop – he’s really just now coming into his own as he lost some bad weight and his 6’5” 230 lb frame now looks really good out there on the mound. It’s an easy delivery with a fastball that he works in the mid-90’s and showed he can maintain well into starts. His changeup has three hallmarks of being at least a future plus pitch – great armside fade, disguised well, and significant velocity difference from his fastball. He has a slider too that looks very different from the change, but on its own it’s not a pitch that will do well against pro hitters – it either needs refinement, or his command needs to tick up further so even mature hitters have to respect his change more. It’s that command that is the biggest hurdle right now, but it showed signs of improvement this year while he was handling a big workload for the first time – it’s a really impressive accomplishment. All arrows for Cunningham, to me, are pointing up – and they need to continue that way to become a surefire starter in the majors. He needs a bit of work and he might take a few years in the minors, but his ceiling is a #2 SP with questionable K upside. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Ben Hess, 22, P
Hess was the Yankees 1st Round pick, and he goes against type as the first pitcher taken by them that early since Clarke Schmidt in 2017. In fact, he was the first of seven collegiate pitchers taken by the Yanks in their first seven picks! Of those, he and Bryce Cunningham have the most hobby promise, but as I mentioned with Cunningham, neither are surefire big-league starters. Hess has a bad body for durability at 6’5” 250lbs, but he proved himself capable of handling a big workload collegiately for the first time (injuries had been an issue) at Alabama in 2024. He has a fastball with good ride that can get into the high-90’s – it works well up in the zone, but when he misses low it’s on the easier side to make hard contact with. He also has a slider and curve with good depth that get loads of swing-and-miss, but again – command is an issue. Look, it’s possible he develops into the Lance Lynn-type ceiling most peg him with, but to me it’s more likely that he hits the middle ground of a backend starter that gets lots of K, but also gets blown up with some frequency. With that high-90’s fastball and injury history it’s also quite possible he gets scrapped as a starter altogether in a few years and is deployed as a MLB-quality reliever. I think the Yankees made a good pick here that has a high probability of making it to the majors, but how his repertoire and plan of attack is streamlined remains to be seen. Hobby-wise his floor is lowered by the relief risk, but the card market can’t get any better. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5 Both
Gage Ziehl, 21, P
Though he’s shorter in stature at just 6’0” with shorter levers, Ziehl is quite muscular and has shown for two years now at Miami that he can handle a starters’ workload. He has the classic fastball-slider-changeup mix, the best of which is his slider. At it’s best the bitch is a sharp breaker down and away in the high-80's that get most of his whiffs – it’s likely an above average pitch. His change also has quite good fade and tumble when located well and is especially effective against lefties. His fastball is a bit of a mystery, and likely needs the most refinement. He’s been into the mid-90’s with it, but lately he’s been working in the 92-93 range. It does have some nice ride when it’s located up in the zone, but when he misses it tends to get hit hard. It was also hit more frequently in 2024. Overall his K% ticked back this year, though he was still a good performer at a major college program. Hobby wise there is some relief risk in his smaller stature and that his command needs to be a notch better considering the currently fringy fastball, but the secondaries likely are enough to make up for it to give him the floor of an MLB middle reliever. Of course, the hope is the Yankees have drafted themselves a mid-rotation arm here and that’s equally possible. I don’t think he has high-K upside though, so I’d personally be out. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Both
Griffin Herring, 21, P
A sixth round draft-eligible Sohpomore who signed for a well overslot 800k (3rd Round money), Herring pitched out of LSU bullpen this year, sometimes as a bulk reliever, sometimes in high leverage situations. He was a really important member of the team. He’s a lefty with a funky delivery whose breaker plays really well because of that deception. It’s a pitch with deep two-plane sweep that gets a lot of weak contact and swing-and-miss. The quirks in his delivery lend themself better to being a reliever long-term. However, I have to think of the 800k as a buyout of a prove-it-as-a-starter season at LSU, and the Yankees will take over that development. He definitely needs some to stick in the role. His command did improve a lot from what he showed as a Freshman, but his fastball is squarely below average and his changeup (which I didn’t see) is even further behind. He usually works with his fastball in the low 90’s, and while it does have some markers of developing good shape, it’s just not there at present. As Herring is an older project of a pitcher, there should be minimal hobby interest. His ceiling looks like that of a backend starter…or is a high-leverage reliever better? Either way, it’ll be an older debut if he makes it. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Base-Only
Ryan Harvey, 23, P
An 11th Round pick back in 2022, Harvey is an odd duck in this set in that he has no previous cards. It’s unknown if they will feature the “1st Bowman” logo, but we’ll assume he does. And if not, he at least gets a 1st-time writeup from us. For a player who was given a chance to start as a pro after being a closer in his Junior year at UC Santa Barbara, he certainly hasn’t been able to prove his durability. In 2023 he was brought along slowly and amassed just 45 innings, then this year he missed a large chunk of the season, returning for one appearance in September, then the AFL – a total of 38 innings. The lack of time on the mound lends to why Harvey hasn’t really ever found a consistent rhythm from start to start. He’ll be great for a few starts, then get completely blown up because his command is off. He’s getting old enough now that the Yankees may move him back into the bullpen to see if his stuff plays up there, but I’m not so sure. Harvey begins outings working with his fastball in the 93-95 range, but by his 2nd time through the order it ticks down to 90-91. It’s nothing special in movement profile, but it does have a bit of ride up in the zone. Because he pairs it well with a gyro slider in the low 80’s, that fastball does work as his main pitch to get whiffs. He also has a fringy sweeper for different look, and a changeup he uses on lefties. Everything is going to have to be tightened up for him to make it, especially the maintaining of his fastball velocity. The fastball/slider combo should continue to be effective to some extent in a relief role, but I’m not sure it’s enough to get him to the majors. Harvey was drafted as a dart throw, and like many of his ilk, hasn’t panned out to date. I don’t really know why Topps included him in this product. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
Nick Kurtz, 21, 1B
The 4th overall pick from Wake Forest, even though he’s 1B-only, he ain’t limited. It’s hard to imagine a world where Kurtz doesn’t make it to the majors and becomes a significant offensive threat. His accolades include hitting 62 HR combined in three collegiate seasons and leading all of NCAA Division 1 in walks in 2024. Kurtz has power in spades. It looks really easy coming from his massive 6’5” muscular frame. He gets low in his legs to create an ideal launch angle and then just lets his strength and levers do the rest. Combined with an advanced knowledge of the strike zone, Kurtz should be in the majors quickly, as soon as 2025. That’s not so much because he went to AA for a few games, but more because he went to the AFL where he finished 10th in OBP, 7th in avg, and 5th in SLG among all qualified hitters. Sure, that league is a hitter’s paradise, but those numbers are relative to other hitters – I’m not saying the .353/.450/.608 slash means anything. He already only has a few little things to prove – namely that he can continue being productive for ~100 PAs in the high minors. At that point it becomes a numbers game of when the A’s call him up. He’s sure to be one of the first hitters to reach the majors from his class, just as Jacob Wilson was. Kurtz won’t demand nearly as much hype as when Spencer Torkelson was as a prospect – he was touted as a more complete hitter at the time, which is fair. Altogether Kurtz’s hit tool abuts average overall. But his power ceiling is quite similar. 40 HR seasons are squarely in the realm of possibility, and that makes him quite desirable for the hobby despite the unfavorable landing spot from a market perspective. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Rodney Green, 21, OF
There should be quite a bit of hobby appeal in the A’s 4th Rounder, but it also comes with quite a bit of risk. Green has the power and speed we love to see in our prospects and he’s a really good defender in CF that secures his floor of reaching the high minors. But he tends to swing and miss…a lot. He ran a 28 K% in his Junior year at Cal, then followed it up with a 26 K% in his pro debut at Low-A. Green simply does not use his lower half well at all (seemingly by design) and just whips the barrel into the zone and doesn’t finish with much follow through. It’s remarkable that he shows above average game power, especially to the opposite field. It’s no wonder at all that his batted ball results are wildly inconsistent. Still, Green isn’t a free swinger. He does get on base at a good clip. That lends some credence to his hit tool coming close to average, and that’s probably enough to get him to the majors. With his plus speed he’s also a threat on the bases, totaling 34 SB in his two final years at Cal then stealing 9 in 10 attempts in his 24 game debut. I’m really betwixt on where to value Green’s ceiling because I don’t like the swing at all but I can’t deny the tools. For now I’ll tuck him into the high-risk section of Tier 3. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, 21, SS
Taken in the 3rd Round, Kuroda-Grauer is likely to be one of the first players (non-Angels category) to make it to the majors. Keeping it in-system, I think of him as a light version of Jacob Wilson. The Rutgers product ran a sub-7 K% in his Junior year and then followed that up with a debut at both A levels where he was sub-10%. He was even promoted to AAA at the end of the season to contribute to a playoff run! In those lower levels he had great success, posting a combined .324 BA. Those positive aspects are buoyed by an ability to play all three infield positions well, though he only projects as an above-average (or better) defender at 2B. He has a smaller frame at 6’0”, and he starts with his top hand a shoulder height – that’s really low. That makes his swing plane very flat, and he’s not trying to use levers to hit for power by any means. Those hands do let him get to the ball very quickly and he’s great at finding meaningful contact – he was 2nd in all of NCAA D1 in batting average in 2024. His approach is quite aggressive, but it clearly doesn’t affect him too much. Hobby-wise he’s not a great prospect. I’d be shocked if he ever hits even 15 HR in the majors. But I do also think he has a floor of playing in Oak…errr…Sacramento by 2026. Without a great acumen for stealing bases either, it’ll just likely be as of bottom-of-the-order utility type unless his hit tool ticks up further. In the market he was drafted into I don’t think he’ll ever be more than just a guy in the eyes of the hobby. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3 Both
Josiah Romero, 18, P
The Canadian righty didn’t get a lot of exposure on showcase circuits save for the National Team, but he also went to the Draft League where he proved himself against more experienced competition. That’s really what drew interest to sway him from a Florida State commitment. The A’s 6th Round pick, he’s definitely just a development arm right now but one with some nice projection. He has a kitchen sink of offerings – sinker, four-seam, slider, and change – with an idea of how to use them all, but it’s clear they all need some refinement and/or streamlining. He does work in the low 90’s already with his fastball and that should tick up as he grows into his 6’3” frame. Hobby-wise he’s a dart throw with the fins removed from the dart. There’s no floor, and the A’s aren’t a great team context either. He’s an easy avoid in the product right now. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5 Base-Only
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Griffin Burkholder, 19, OF
He’s easily the #1 hobby name for the Phillies. In fact, outside the first round, for the hobby I think he’s the #1 name period. Though he’s been consistently on the travel circuit, Burkholder really popped off with his performances in the mid-Atlantic in the last 8 months heading into the Draft. That earned him an overslot $2.5 MM bonus after being taken 63rd overall. He’s a potential 5-tool player, with power and speed as his best current attributes. He stands in with a well built lower half at 6’2” 195, and room to grow yet. It’s a picturesque righty stroke, using just a small leg kick and using his lower half extremely well. He’s great at putting bat to ball, though there’s quite a bit of room to grow in learning how to use all fields – he’s currently just able to muscle up on most pitches without a great feel for the barrel. His pull side juice is unquestioned though, and that’s his most intriguing asset for the hobby. It’s at least plus raw power. How much he gets to in-game depends on the development of his hit tool. His speed is also a great asset of his – one that’ll give him a shot to remain in CF and definitely be a terror on the basepaths. To me his baseline expectations and trajectory is something like Henry Bolte – but Burkholder is already a more physical guy than Bolte, and his hit tool has better upward variance. Also in a great card market, I’d expect robust interest that’s completely warranted. He’s squarely in Tier 2. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 3
Dante Nori, 20, OF
The Phillies reached into the 1st Round to nab Nori and signed him underslot, but his floor is pretty solid for a prep, and he does have a few tools to get excited about. It’s rare to see a 20 year old at all in this product. But to me, being really old for a prep isn’t that important after seeing what Nori looks like. At 5’10”, his muscular compact frame is already maxed out physically – that’s not a bad thing when there’s enough present tools to get him through the low minors quickly. His best asset, by far, is his speed. He’s likely the fastest runner in the prep class (right now, he could be passed as less physical prospects develop). That’s a tool that will play both on the bases and in center field, where he should stick long term. He has a short, compact swing and uses all fields well – he’s a mature hitter for a prep, which is good considering his age. What he doesn’t have is much game power. He plays to his best asset by trying to hit the ball with low launch angle, and with the limited levers his frame affords, it’s a really good plan of attack. The son of longtime NBA assistant David Nori, he seems like a really high baseball IQ – and that’s something that played out in his brief Low-A debut where he walked more than he struck out and put up elite zone contact numbers (though he was quite passive). Hobby-wise, the lack of power limits Nori’s ceiling quite a lot. Is it even a 15 HR ceiling? But there’s a near-100% chance he gets to the high minors by 2026 with all the tools he has. It just depends on execution, whether his hit ends up as a plus asset. For a realistic ceiling, I’d peg him as something like a .360 OBP/10 HR/40 SB centerfielder. That’s excellent for real life – a likely All-Star. But that doesn’t make him an All-Star to the hobby. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both
Carson DeMartini, 21, 3B
OK, look. DeMartini is all about power. The lefty plays bigger than his 6’0” frame and really takes healthy hacks trying to hit to his pull side, sometimes at bad pitches that yield unexpectedly good results! But there’s a reason the Virginia Tech product is a 4th Rounder. He doesn’t chase much at all, but his discipline isn’t great. He does know how to use all fields as well, but his tendency is to swing for the fences until an unfavorable count – that leads to plenty of weak contact and whiffs, which will only increase if he continues like this in pro ball. It was a 27 K% in his Junior year. The good thing is that while it was only Low-A, he didn’t come close to that K% in his 104 PA pro debut. He also slugged 9 XBH in 24 games, a nice building block as he heads to a more challenging level to begin 2025. Defensively, he definitely has a shot to remain at 3B with anecdotal evidence that he’ll get stronger as he continues to put a 2023 shoulder surgery further in the rearview, but 2B or LF are options if not. He’s not a significant threat on the bases. There’s definitely a chance that DeMartini’s flaws are entirely curable and his hit tool approaches average with at least above average power. That’s something that would play quite well in the Philly market – just keep in mind there’s a lot of work to be done to say he’ll do it consistently. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both
Carter Mathison, 21, OF
The Phillies 5th round selection in the draft, Mathison set the Indiana University Freshman home run record with 19 on the season. His Sophomore and Junior years didn’t quite see that power output, but he still hit double digits in both seasons. There’s potentially above average to plus raw power, however there is some question if that will translate to wood bats in the pros. From watching his video, I’d say we atleast get into double digits, but likely would cap it around 20-ish with full playing time. If he does stick with the Phillies (which is always a question when it comes to Dave Dombrowski at the helm), that home park definitely favors left handed home run potential. Mathison crowds the plate, and with his rotational skills, he’s able to turn on inside pitches while also covering the outside of the plate. He has no issue staying with those outside pitches and smacking them to left field. The biggest challenge from a hit tool perspective was Mathison’s handling of breaking pitches. If he was better at that, I would be a lot more bullish on Mathison’s future role. While not a burner, I saw him regularly push it on the basepaths and he looked very competent doing so, even if reports don’t have him as a stolen base threat. Defensively he got time in all three outfield spots in his brief 11 game sample post-draft, and while he profiles best at a corner, he shouldn’t have a problem filling in at center either. Mathison has a floor of a 4th outfielder given his versatility, ability to battle at the plate while taking more than his fair share of walks, and provide some pop and stolen bases from the strong side of a platoon. His ceiling is an everyday player that produces sort of like Brandon Nimmo. I’m choosing to lean more towards the ceiling than the floor with this ranking. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Kodey Shojinaga, 21, C/1B
The Phillies took Shojinaga in the 6th round of the draft and gave him a slight haircut of around 50K. Before looking at the numbers, I would have guessed the Phillies were saving a lot more than that as I’m not sure he is much more than org depth. The only positive I took away from my looks is that he has a strong plate approach rooted in a confident knowledge of the strike zone. He doesn’t look to swing unless it’s a pitch he’s hunting and/or he’s in the hole and hitting defensively. He’ll get more than his fair share of walks that way. On the other hand, there’s very little impact with the bat - I saw him barrel a ball that I thought would be a gapper with double potential given the swing and how the ball came off the bat and it barely cleared the shortstop. He did not clear the wall more than 6 times in his college seasons, and didn’t hit any in the small sample of 15 games post-draft. Behind the plate there were either mental errors on letting balls pass, maybe due to a college season, time off, and then coming back to it for 15 games, or just not instinctual/athletic enough to get to those balls. The reports are mostly saying he won’t be able to stick behind the plate, and his play on the infield hasn’t looked great either. Although he’s not bulky, he’s also a bit shorter, and just doesn’t look like there’s much power to come in the future. Add in that he’s not stealing bases, and the deck is really stacked against Shojinaga getting more than a cup of coffee at the big league level. He did walk on at the University of Kansas and take home the Big 12 Co-Freshman of the year award, so it’s easy to assume there is a gamer mentality that could push Shojinaga further than his talent would project. However, for the Hobby, his cards are an easy pass. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2 Both
John Spikerman, 21, OF
Spikerman is one of those real and fantasy baseball prospects to monitor, but not one for the Hobby. A switch-hitting outfielder with near elite speed, Spikerman is a classic 4th outfielder that will provide defensive replacement and pinch running value to any MLB roster. If he does get into a starting role either due to injury or playing on a bad second division team, then the fantasy relevance becomes a possibility in deeper, five outfielder leagues. Sort of like Jacob Young provided this year, except with a bit more strikeouts. That’s not to say he’ll strike out a lot, it’s just that Young consistently runs sub-20% K rates, while Spikerman will probably live in that 20% - 25% range as a pro. If he can take his average hit tool and cut down on the strikeouts/swing and miss so that his speed plays up a lot more, and show any semblance of power, then I’d start to put Spikerman into that Tier 3 range as a future everyday player. At the moment I don’t see it, so he’s going to be ranked in Tier None until further notice. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Both
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
Konnor Griffin, 18, SS
Long thought of as the top prep SS in this class, Griffin has a very clear 5-tool kit. However, they’re altogether not as developed as fellow prep SS Bryce Rainer, so I have him a touch below for the hobby. The main risk is that his power and hit doesn’t come together quite right. It’s not that he doesn’t possess clear plus raw tools in those areas – he clearly does, but his power especially is not showing well in games just yet. He’s great at putting bat to ball, but I see a few quibbles with his swing that affect his power. First, he wraps his bat around his head a bit, and that makes the long levers of his 6’4” frame even longer. I think that as he gains more strength and physical maturity, he can ditch that feature. Second, his lower half mechanics are far from perfect. He uses the side of his back foot to rotate and then kicks it back, which sometimes cause him to lose balance. It’s also hardly an ideal mechanism to maximize power, especially to the opposite field. Can you imagine if he cleans all this up? His bat speed is already excellent. An idealized swing and plane of launch would make his stock soar even higher than it is now. Griffin will be a plus defender anywhere he goes. He also has plus speed, so CF is the likeliest of outcomes. We normally say a player who’s above-average across the board is a 5-tool player. Griffin’s ceiling is a player who’s plus across the board. That would make him a hobby superstar. One that, like Paul Skenes, makes his landing spot in Pittsburgh completely irrelevant. He’s likely to take a few years to look like this player with a superstar ceiling from a performance standpoint – I would expect quality of contact to suffer until he cleans up his mechanics. Look for a buying opportunity if that happens. He’s got the goods. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Levi Sterling, 18, P
Sterling is mostly projection at this point, but if everything clicks there’s top of the rotation potential. Taken 37th overall from a powerhouse California prep program, Sterling is a 6`5” righty who possesses excellent athleticism on the mound with plenty of room for physical growth and a delivery that’s already pretty darn clean. His fastball has sinker-ish traits and he works in the low 90’s, but there’s definitely a few ticks more coming. Paired with his low-80’s change that has excellent fade and drop, those should both play as at least above average offerings in time. His sweeping high-70’s slider makes for a good 3rd offering, and he rounds out kitchen sink of pitches with a cutter that needs refinement, but it’s quite complementary to the rest of his arsenal. Sterling has an excellent feel for spin, though like most preps his execution can waver. How all these pitches are refined should be an exciting process. I would expect him to take the same path through the minors as Zander Mueth – that is to say, expect him to be at the Complex next year, but he could be similarly dominant. With so many pitches already at his disposal, he’s not like some of the other prep pitchers drafted around him. He’s a really good hobby name already and Tier Three for me – his ceiling looks a little more in focus. Although – prep pitchers outside the first round don’t do well and the Pittsburgh market depresses his hobby status a bit. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
Tier None
Eddie Rynders, 19, 3B
Drafted in the 4th Round and signed away from a Kent State commitment for slot money, Rynders went to high school just down the road from me in Wisconsin, but as he’s a pop-up name I haven’t been familiar with him for all that long. His body has come a long way in the last 18 months, and with that speed and power upticks make him an intriguing hobby dart throw. His 6’2” frame easily has further room for growth, though his speed ticking up further to above average asset may be a stretch. His power is his most intriguing asset, and in its raw form at least, it’s approaching plus. He has a longer swing designed to launch, and though his upper half looks excellent I saw some inefficiency in his lower half. If that cleans up, I think it’ll let his ability to find the barrel shine through more easily. It’s tough to say exactly how his hit tool will play in pro ball but he has shown an ability to go to all fields. Defensively he played SS in high school, but his body projection and offensive profile are a great fit for 3B, where he’ll likely work when he debuts. There’s no down arrows here. Rynders is raw but strong. He’s some good clay to mold and should be able to handle at least a taste of Low-A next year. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7 Both
Josh Hartle, 21, P
The big 6’5” lefty had a fantastic year as a Sophomore at Wake Forest in 2023 earning himself All-American honors, but everything backed up this year. It didn’t stop the Pirates from taking a chance on him in the 3rd Round though. I think his struggles tie to a few things. First, he doesn’t work with exceptional velocity – normally in the low-90’s with his fastball that has some pretty nice sinking action to it. Second, as a player with lower velocity command is important, and what was pinpoint command of his entire arsenal ticked back to average. Third, while his secondaries offer different looks, his change and cutter are too similar in velocity to the fastball. He’s already learned to throw his change less, but I wonder if he’s able to refine it to kill a little more velocity, it’ll be a nice pairing to the fastball. His cutter is thrown at the same speed as his fastball, as most are, but more than anything that pitch needs his command to tick back up because it becomes fairly meaty to righties in the wrong spot when they’re sitting fastball. He has a curve as well and that pitch does offer good velocity difference, and maybe not surprisingly was his most effective pitch in 2024. Hartle has been an intriguing name to get to the majors as a SP for a long time and remains so, but currently he’s as low as he’s ever been. We’ll see if the Pirates can revive him – they are a good team to do it, but hobby-wise it hurts his significance that they’re his team. Even if there’s a rebound it’s likely to be just a mid-rotation arm. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Base-Only
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Kash Mayfield, 19, P
Kash is money. There, now with the inevitable pun out of the way we can dig into the Padres 1st Rounder. Mayfield has limited exposure on showcase circuits, but man was he ever impressive as an Oklahoma high schooler. He won the Gatorade POY for the state his Junior year, then ran it back in 2024. The 6’4” lefty mainly works with his mid-90’s fastball that has excellent command and shape, and deception in his delivery only helps. But when I say deception – it’s not some funky effort-filled motion. Mayfield has a really easy delivery, batters just can’t pick up on it. It was to the tune of nearly 80 K% as a prep. That’s right – eight zero. He also has a change that has excellent potential as well, and a sweeper that creates a different look entirely. It’s all commanded well for a prep. There’s just that one little question about the competition he was facing and how he integrates his secondaries with more frequent usage, but that’ll get answered real quick in pro ball. To me he’s ready for full season ball now, and I’m eager to see just how fast he can move through the minors. Hobby-wise, the landing spot isn't ideal. Also, any prep pitcher without a track record against quality competition deserves some trepidation for how we spend hobby dollars. But Mayfield has every single tangible skill we want in our pitchers – he’s in Tier 2 for me. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 3
Kavares Tears, 22, OF
He only played one year as a full-time starter at Tennessee, but that was enough for Tears to vault himself into the compensatory 4th Round, 134th overall. I think it’s that lack of track record (and more specifically, injury history) that had him drafted that late, because he really seems like a player with a good shot to reach the majors, and in a way that’s good for the hobby. He’s only 6’0” and even looks a little shorter than that in the box – but that’s because Tears is jacked. He has a swing plane that’s on the flatter side but his tree trunk legs power his hips very well and he’s able to launch frequently enough to be a significant power threat. It comes in the form of line drive missiles to all fields, mostly. His approach is solid and he doesn’t chase but as you can imagine his swing is very aggressive and has some swing-and-miss in it – that’s the biggest fixable defect in his game. He’s also not a great runner but should be fine in a corner OF spot. After winning the NCAA Championship the Padres did not send Tears out to make his debut, so it remains to see exactly how his game will translate. While I’m not concerned because he definitely has the raw power aspect of his game locked down, his performance with wood is unknown because his summer ball experiences were cut short. I just wanted to throw a couple seeds of doubt in there into an otherwise very nice profile for the hobby. If he keeps his K% in check, lookout – we could have an above average big leaguer on our hands. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Tyson Neighbors, 22, P
A near MLB ready-made relief pitcher, Neighbors was taken in the 4th Round. Of pitchers of his ilk (surefire relievers) he’s the best in his class and it’s easy to see him making it to his ceiling as a closer. The Kansas State product struck out over a third of the hitters he faced his Junior year in total, and was especially dominant in the single inning outings where his future lies. He has a powerful 6’2” frame with a heater that regularly gets into the high 90’s and features excellent cutting action. But his secondaries are what really make him shine. Both his slider and curve feature excellent spin metrics, and they look similar to each other to hitters until the curveball drops off the table and the slider bites late. Oh, and there’s 6-8 MPH of velocity difference between the two as well. It’s a demonic combination in short spurts. I don’t think the Padres will get cute with his development and try to convert him to a starter. In his current role he could make it to the majors in 2025 – quite valuable for a team in a contending window. His floor for the hobby is rock solid, but we generally don’t value relievers highly, and for now Neighbors isn’t an exception. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3 Both
Clark Candiotti, 24, P
The name should seem familiar as the son of longtime MLB pitcher Tom - for the kids out there he was a knuckleballer who pitched from 1983-1999. Clark has had a long journey to being a draftee. He was a well underslot 4th Round Senior sign (5th Senior year in fact) that helped the Padres get some nice upside prospects. That says nothing for how he ended up performing for Arizona this year though. He totaled 95 innings while limiting hard contact and striking out over a batter per inning. His fastball is pretty flat, but it’s intriguing that while he works 93-94, he’s topped out at 97. He mostly works with a short mid-80’s gyro-type slider and a wicked downer of a low-80’s curve. Combined, it’s three well-defined velocities and pitch directions that can be tough to handle. Still, I don’t know how much ceiling and development potential he has at his age. What we’re seeing is likely what we get. I mentioned his top velocity being at 97 – if he’s converted to a reliever perhaps that plays well off of his offspeed in short spurts? That’d give him a little more real life ceiling? Whatever the Padres decide to do, I think Candiotti’s age alone deservedly makes him a hobby afterthought with the ceiling of a backend starter. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Boston Bateman, 19, P
While Kash Mayfield has some polish for being a prep, Bateman does not. But he does have projection in spades. He’s quite the presence on the mound at 6’8” with an already muscular physique – there’s still some room to grow as well. Bateman throws in the low 90’s with his heater right now, but there’s potential for that to tick up. His curve is his best pitch and his only secondary right now, but it easily has plus projection. It’s a high-70’s offering with great depth in its 1-to-7 movement. Of course two pitches – especially these two pitches – aren’t enough to succeed in pro ball as a starter. He’ll need to add a third pitch, and he’ll need to have that uptick in fastball velocity to progress through the minors. His command is also…not great right now. I don’t want to pile on too much as Bateman is clearly a project. The Padres amateur scouting is excellent though, so let’s see if he can develop his repertoire appropriately. I won’t be taking the chance here, but he should be really cheap at release, and stay really cheap for awhile. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5 Both
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
James Tibbs III, 22, OF
The 2024 ACC Player of the year was taken by the Giants at 13th overall in the first round of the 2024 MLB draft. That equals at least some form of prospect pedigree on a collectable team. Tibbs did take a haircut of just over half a million dollars on his slot, as the Giants didn’t have much of a bonus pool to work with due to the Blake Snell and Matt Chapman signings eliminating their second and third round picks (and the associated bonus money that come with those picks). Tibbs is an offense over defense player with a strong plate approach that regularly leads to all fields, solid contact. Especially against right handed pitching. When he’s facing same-side pitching, there’s a lot more issues as he struggles with swing and miss and just looks uncomfortable, even against low minors pitching. He has a good eye at the plate and shows a lot of patience but is not passive. Again, though, that looks to be a bit less of an asset against lefty arms as he’s swinging and missing rather than spoiling the tough pitches like he does against righties. From a defensive standpoint, he has enough arm to make it work in right field, but he’s likely restricted to right field, left field, and first base (although the Giants already have their cornerstone lefty first baseman of the future in Bryce Eldridge). Tibbs is a floor player rather than a ceiling player with the most likely outcome being a strong side platoon corner outfielder that provides good on base numbers, puts the ball in play, and will have above average power. In San Francisco, that power doesn’t play as well, which further caps his Hobby Ceiling. In the right circumstance, I could envision him with some Tier 2 hype - for example, if he was the first round pick of the Yankees, with that fan base, and that short left field porch. In this case, I’m not going to be buying in and would be more than happy to sell into any hype. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5 Both
Dakota Jordan, 21, OF
Some of the savings the Giants were able to get in round 1 from the Tibbs selection allowed them to spend on a falling Dakota Jordan in the fourth round, giving him a $2M bonus which was almost $1.5M over slot. Jordan isn’t exactly raw, but the college bat has a long way to go before he’s going to be an MLB-ready player. Jordan is a plus power bat with plus speed and the potential to play any spot in the outfield. He’s got a muscular build and looks like a running back, so the speed part of his game could be at risk of declining as the years go by, and strangely he just never really ran in college even though he looked fast on base-paths. The main issue with Jordan, and why he slipped into the fourth round of the draft while consistently being ranked as a top 50 prospect heading into the 2024 draft, is the hit tool. There’s a LOT of swing and miss in his aggressive approach. We only got one and half hit-less games from him post draft as he pulled up lame on what looked like a hamstring strain on a ground ball out in his second appearance, so he wasn’t able to do much to change that opinion that we had coming into his professional debut. In fact, those seven at bats just served to reinforce that opinion. Jordan is essentially the opposite of the other Giants 1st Bowman prospect in this product (Tibbs). He’s a ceiling over floor situation as a toolsy, power speed prospect that is going to be seriously challenged to make enough contact to make it as an everyday player. We like that power speed combo in the Hobby, but the lack of a hit tool is a big red flag, and the speed portion of that combo may never show up in-game. If he’s cheap, I wouldn’t mind a small lottery ticket purchase. However, I’d mostly be a seller of Jordan’s cards. The Ceiling is high enough for me to rank him in Tier 3, but the Risk keeps him away from any thoughts of Tier 2 where the raw power suggests he could be. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
None
Seattle Mariners
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Ryan Sloan, 18, P
Don’t look at his status as a 2nd Rounder (55th overall). Look at that bonus he got to sign instead of honoring his Wake Forest commitment – $3 MM. That's 1st Round money, and that’s where his ceiling and talent lie. Sloan already has three pitches with plus potential. He’s also 6’4” with a mature lower half – he already physically looks like a major league starter up there. His fastball has been up to 99 already at 18 years old, and that alone gets teams interested in you. Though his command of the pitch leaves a little to be desired, he has explosive movement up in the zone when he wants, or he can intentionally vary it’s shape to have cut or sink. His slider is in the low-80’s and has hard two-plane movement – it’s a great swing-and-miss weapon and should remain so. His change is a fantastic weapon against lefties because it moves away and tumbles so well, but to become a more versatile weapon it needs to be a little slower than the high-80’s where it is now. (Because he usually works 92-94 with his fastball, there is not a lot of velocity difference.) Again with these pitches, command needs to tick up. But that’s the case with almost every prep, so it’s only a minor negative. Sloan’s ceiling is as high as any prep righty taken before him. With the maturity of his body he’s likely to be deployed to Low-A right away, so we get to see just how quickly he can develop. Especially if his fastball velocity ticks up closer to that 99 with regularity and its command improves, we could be looking at a quick riser. This is an obvious statement, but to me, hobby-wise he’s the best prep pitcher taken outside the first/comp rounds, and I wouldn’t argue with putting him above Braylon Doughty, Kash Mayfield, and Cam Caminiti as the top prep in the class. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Josh Caron, 21, C
Caron is a well-built 6’0” – he looks like a prototypical catcher. His best asset is his power – he’s a dangerous hitter up there, but he doesn’t come without flaws. On the positive side, he developed very well in his three years in Lincoln, culminating with 16 HR in his Junior season. His clearly above-average raw power is better than his game power yet, as when he goes the other way he loses a bit of juice. Pull-side, it’s no problem. Everything else is going to take some development. He generally has a good eye at the plate and doesn’t chase a ton, but when he does his swing gets ugly fast, resulting in a lot of swing-and-misses. He’s going to have to learn how to identify pitches better, or else that will get taken advantage of in a hurry. His arm strength is a definite positive on the defensive side, but he’s not an accurate thrower and his blocking and receiving are currently below average. “For a catcher” he’s a pretty good athlete, but there’s not a clear place for him to play if he doesn’t stick defensively. Big yikes from a floor perspective there. Caron is on the younger side for a college draftee, which is great because he has a long developmental road ahead of him. Hobby-wise he’s fairly safe for the masses to disregard at this juncture. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Both
Hunter Cranton, 24, P
It’s been an odyssey for Cranton, but he really showed well in his final year at Kansas. He’s a relief-only arm, but one with all the polish you’d like to see in a Senior sign. Taken in the third round and signed to an underslot deal, Cranton has a sweeper as a complimentary pitch, but his primary weapon is his fastball. It’s one with excellent shape and has velocity that’s touched triple digits, though he usually works around 96. There’s only limited video, but it seems that no matter the location, his fastball gets excellent ride, and also has some armside run. The results at Kansas were a 36 K%, and he was immediately deployed to high-leverage situations in Low-A Modesto, where he posted a 40 K%. Now, a 24 YO striking out that many hitters at such a low level isn’t a major deal, but it’s a nice stepping stone for what may be a quick ascent. I do think his fastball by itself is nearly enough to make it to the majors in the role he’s been in. But as we’re positive there isn’t much upward trajectory within that, he’s not a hobby name to consider by any means. There’s a slight shot he closes games in the future. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Charlie Beilenson, 25, P
That age isn’t a typo – Beilenson was a grad student at Duke both this year and last after graduating from Brown. No doubt about the mental acumen, I suppose. He served as Duke’s closer this year, appearing in a whopping 32 (of 60) games and throwing 62.2 innings. At only 6’0”, he’s best suited to a relief role of some sort like this, and in his 6-year collegiate history he never started. He has a kitchen sink of offerings and gets good movement on both his slider and change. That lets his 94-95 MPH fastball play really well even though it’s nothing special from a shape perspective. He has a higher effort delivery like many of his size and not much deception from that perspective, but he intentionally alters his pitch shapes to create some. It was highly effective, as he recorded a 36 K%. He was signed for a minimal bonus, as you might think. This is a “continuing his baseball journey” guy, and if he performs well there’s absolutely no reason to hold back promotions. There is a ceiling of having a role in the Mariners' bullpen, but the combined age and reliever profile makes him the lowest of Tier None. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 1 Base-Only
St. Louis Cardinals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Brian Holiday, 21, P
I liked Holiday coming into the draft as a bulldog, back-end starter type that could be had in the 3rd to 4th round. The Cardinals ended up grabbing him in the third round and saving a few bucks while doing it. Holiday lives in the zone and succeeds by keeping the base-paths empty and filling up the zone. None of his 4 to 5 pitch arsenal grades out to plus and his fastball velocity lives in the low 90’s. At just a touch under six foot tall, there’s not a lot of future added velocity in the cards either that you could project with more prototypical starting pitcher frames. From a real baseball perspective, Holiday should be able to provide good value for a pitching-needy organization like the Cardinals. From a Hobby perspective, this is an easy one to avoid, not just because he’s a pitcher, but also because there’s not a ton of high-end SP or strikeout upside. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3 Both
Ryan Campos, 22, C
One of the various archetypes of the backup catcher, Campos is of the variety that I particularly like from a real baseball perspective. A very patient plate approach (12% BB rate, 12% K rate) with high contact rates (86th percentile zone contact) that we saw in spades in his 26 pro games post-draft with the ability to stick behind the dish coupled with a high baseball IQ. He rarely expands the zone either, with an outside the zone swing rate at 77th percentile (as in good/not swinging outside the zone). The main negative is that the power is fringe and he rarely steals bases. A high average/OBP backup catcher that won’t steal bases or hit the ball over the fence isn’t going to move the needle from a Hobby perspective. There’s definitely an MLB future here, just not a Hobby one. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3 Both
Tampa Bay Rays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Theo Gillen, OF, 19
The Rays 1st round pick at 18th overall out of Texas prep ranks, Gillen has battled injuries throughout his high school career. One of those, a torn labrum, has given rise to questions about his arm strength post-surgery and essentially is pushing him off of the shortstop position that he played as a prep. The Rays gave Gillen 9 games post draft at Single-A and if I had to guess the reason, it was primarily to have Gillen get some reps in at center field before going into an off-season of work on his new position. He played 7 of those 9 games in center field, while he was the DH in the other two, so it definitely looks to be a concerted effort to make it work there. I think it should work there given his athletic skills, but I did catch one really rough moment where he simply either did not track the ball properly or lost sight of it leading to what was scored as a double. It really should have been an error as an experienced center fielder would have caught it. So, defense is definitely going to be a work in progress for Gillen and some inherent risk associated with a new position. On the offensive side, he was billed as above average to plus in his hit, power, and speed tools. I’m not going to be too judgemental when he was thrown into the fire at Single-A as a teenager for a super small sample of games. That’s because what I saw was swing and miss, an overly aggressive approach, and not much impactful contact. Physically Gillen looks the part and I can see why he was a first round pick, but from a baseball perspective this seems like this could be a slow burn. The Rays, on the other hand, have been known to unlock young hitting prospects, so Gillen’s development could easily move faster than I think. Falling back on the draft team eval of strong hit and power potential, the Rays magic dev dust, and the first round draft pedigree makes me comfortable in ranking Gillen in Tier 2. On a more collectable team, or if he had been taken in the top 10, there would likely have been enough hobby hype to push him into Tier 1, but lacking that, there may hopefully be some buying opportunities for Gillen’s cards. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Nate Knowles, P, 21
Tampa was one of the best places that Knowles could have ended up with his profile, which is a pitcher that could go on short rest and fits multiple roles for a pitching staff. In Tampa, we all know how they regularly use the opener/follower role, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Knowles employed as an innings eater follower or an opener, or both! In addition, according to our draft team, his fastball has good data characteristics with a flat VAA and impressive carry and touches 94 mph. He throws a cutter, curveball, and changeup to pair with that heater. The curveball and the cutter looked like above average pitches in the college video, but it’s hard to get a good idea of the ability of the competition in leagues like the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA), where Knowles was the 2024 pitcher of the year. Knowles has yet to throw a pro pitch yet, as is the case with almost every arm post draft, so we don’t have a clear idea of how Tampa is going to deploy Knowles moving forward. Regardless, I think we can safely drop Knowles into the Tier None bucket with the rest of the back-end starters and bullpen arms until we get to see a fair bit of pro innings under his belt. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Base-Only
Nathan Flewelling, C, 18
A solidly built prep catcher from Canada, Flewelling’s best asset is his power. He attended the 2024 MLB Draft Combine and put up the second highest max exit velocity number recorded at the event at just 17 years old. Having just turned 18 in November, the power and age combo coupled with a left handed bat likely enticed plenty of model-heavy teams in the draft. The Rays are widely considered one of those teams that incorporate those data models into their evaluations, so it’s no surprise they snapped up Flewelling in the third round and paid him almost full slot value. We didn’t get to see Flewelling post-draft, so the little video available on him is from high school and showcase events. That doesn’t give us the best idea how he handles tough pitchers or his work behind the dish with the glove on. The Draft team liked his barrel consistency and athleticism. In the video, while he did get around the bases, it was close to a lumbering type of gait, so I doubt we’ll see much in the stolen base department. The arm is given an average grade as well, so there’s potential that he’ll have to move out from behind the plate to either first base or left field. There’s too many unknowns here to rank Flewelling with any confidence. The catcher position, lack of name recognition, draft pedigree, and a team that doesn’t have a ton of collectability outweighs the aspirations we have about Flewelling’s power and pushes him into a tentative Tier None ranking. I would probably hold any cards of his I end up with just to see how he does in his first year as a pro, but I wouldn’t go out of my way for them. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5 Both
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Dylan Dreiling, 21, OF
Though he was only a 2nd Round pick, most of Dreiling’s deficiencies are tied to his arm and defense – things we don’t care all that much about for the hobby. A Tennessee product, he’s a really good hitter, as he showed in the NCAA Championship Tournament where he won the Most Outstanding Player Award (MOP). He’s only 5’10” but gets into a good launch position in his setup and unfurls a whippy swing with a really good feel for the barrel. He’s also excellent at controlling the strike zone and doesn’t chase much at all. Most of his power is to the pull side where he can really launch it, but he doesn’t hunt for that power. Both his hit and power have above average projection. His 106 PA debut in High-A was a mixed bag as he acclimated to pro ball. He showed elite contact rates both in and out of the zone and as expected, didn’t chase much at all. But the bottom line wasn’t good because of passivity – it was only 5 XBHs and a sub-.200 average, but he did walk almost as much as he struck out. On the optimistic side of a realistic projection, he’s an above average big-leaguer that could be a terror at the top of a lineup. What I don’t think he has the potential to be is a superstar – maybe 20-25 HR with a high OBP and a handful of steals? So for the hobby, he’s a Tier 3 name who should have a bit of a spiked interest due to winning the MOP. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Casey Cook, 22, OF
The Rangers 3rd Rounder, Cook is squarely a floor play on the offensive side of the ball and doesn’t have any tools anywhere that are definitely average. His hit is the closest, but to me everything looks a bit unnatural up there. He looks like he trying to manipulate the barrel to the ball at all costs and he loses fluidity in his stroke when he does so. Now – at North Carolina he was really successful at it. Using the patience such an approach at the plate affords, he posted a low K%, .341 AVG, and a .431 OBP in his Junior year, and he even tacked on 18 HR to boot! However, he’s never had success with a wood bat, and that struggle continued in his brief debut at Low-A where he had quite a bit of issues with quality of contact. His swing just looks like it’ll struggle against good pitching unless he’s elite with his swing decisions, which he’s not. He’s merely above average in that department. Hobby-wise, even if you project his hit tool as above average, every other facet of his game is fringy – it seems like a best case scenario is a second division regular. He’s a pretty hands-off name and a clear Tier None in my eyes. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Both
Toronto Blue Jays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Trey Yesavage, 21, P
The consensus third-best pitching prospect in the 2024 MLB Draft, Yesavage surprisingly fell down to Toronto at the 20th overall pick in the first round. While Hagen Smith and Chase Burns arguably have the higher ceilings, Yesavage probably has the higher floor. Truly, I think it was more preference based than anything in who you preferred among Smith, Burns, and Yesavage. Regardless, the fall-off after these three when it came to college arms was significant. Yesavage did not get any pro innings after the draft, so we’ll have to rely on the college tape and results. He followed up a great Sophomore season at East Carolina with an absolutely dominant Junior year, finishing with an 11-1 record, a 40% K rate, 2.03 ERA, and a 0.868 WHIP. At 6’4” and 225 pounds, he’s got the frame to hold up as a starter. Yesavage has a four pitch arsenal with a mid-90’s four-seamer that has the induced vertical break that allows it to be a weapon up in the zone. A plus slider and splitter along with lesser-used curve-ball round out the arsenal. It’s a vertical approach with fastballs up and breakers and off-speed stuff down. The fastball and splitter will give some arm-side run looks to give a slight variance to that primarily vertical feel. Yesavage’s stuff, while dominant in the AAC in college, likely ticks down a bit as he starts facing upper minors and MLB hitters. The ceiling is more of an SP2/SP3 than the SP1 that are within reach of Smith and Burns. Couple that with Toronto not having a huge collector base and there isn’t enough to consider Yesavage as a Tier 1 type of pitcher. On the other hand, he’s easily a Tier 2 pitcher that should move fast and steamroll the lower minors to start 2025. In real baseball and fantasy/dynasty baseball, I’m buying Yesavage, but when it comes to the Hobby, I’m going to be much more sensitive to the price point. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Johnny King, P, 18
Toronto went almost $500K over slot to sign their third round pick in King, a tall lefty prep arm out of Florida. The delivery is in that three-quarters area which gives his pitches a slinging sort of effect with a lot of horizontal action. At the moment, he has a low-90’s fastball, a plus curveball, and a change-up that sort of slips off the table horizontally. King did not get any reps in post-draft and the prep and showcase video of him mostly show hitters looking really uncomfortable against an arm slot and stuff they rarely see. Depending on the looks, there was also a lot of King being inconsistent and missing the zone all over the place. There’s a lot to work with here, and there’s a lot of work to be done by Toronto to get King to what looks like a potential mid-rotation SP. At 6’3” and lean, King has the frame to add muscle and velocity that would help him reach that Ceiling. There’s definite risk here, especially with the Blue Jays pitching development leaving a lot to be desired lately. I would take some cheap shots on King as I can’t imagine he will cost much even with the Toronto issues. The talent is there, so let’s see if that clay can be appropriately molded. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier None
Nick Mitchell, 21, OF
Taken as a compensatory pick between Rounds 4 and 5, Mitchell’s a smallish outfielder who’s a good defender and has a potentially above average hit tool. First of all – ignore the 4 HR he hit in Low-A Dunedin in his 106 PA debut. That’s a complete mirage that’s a result of some true anomalies – he’s not known for power, and even all the underlying data from that level (EV, Contact %, etc) paint the picture of a contact hitter. Which is fine, because that’s why the Jays took him. Mitchell excelled with those contact numbers at Western Illinois in his first two years, then continued that success with summer ball in 2023 and a transfer to the bigger stage that Indiana provides. It was more of the same there where he put up a .458 OBP in his Junior year. Mitchell knows his game well. His only goal is to get on base. He has quite the discerning approach at the plate, and when he swings it’s with quite a flat plane that lets him launch with low angles and use his above average wheels to help him get to first. That speed helps him a lot in the field as well where he could be serviceable in CF and also has an arm for RF, but he doesn’t have much of an acumen for stealing bases. Mitchell certainly isn’t a hobby name to consider strongly, but if his defense ticks up and his it tool continues to be as advertised, he could end up as a big league regular. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4 Both
Khal Stephen, 21, P
A 6’4” starter with a straight over-the-top delivery, Stephen certainly provides a different look to hitters. After transferring from Purdue to Mississippi State for his Junior year, he proved he could handle a big workload against tough competition and was taken 59th overall in the 2nd Round. There’s no pitch in his arsenal that truly stands out, but his 92-94 MPH fastball is tough for hitters to pick up and used with frequency and pinpoint command. It’s that pitch that has the best shot to end up as an above average offering. His other pitches aren’t commanded quite as well, but his change is his next best. With his delivery style, it serves as the most natural pairing to that fastball. He also features a slider and curve that can be effective, but it’s hard for him to get much horizontal movement on those pitches. He wasn’t a K machine by any means at Miss St (10 K/9) nor does he have anything I see as becoming a deadly swing-and-miss asset, so he’s less desirable for the hobby. His chances of making it to the majors as a backend starter are pretty good – and innings-eaters are a valuable commodity to any team. But he’s squarely a Tier None name. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3 Both
Aaron Parker, 21, C
Taken in the 6th round out of UC Santa Barbara, Parker wasn’t in the Top 300 pre-draft but he put up back to back solid seasons for the Gauchos. One of the classic backup catcher archetypes, Parker is a shorter, thicker-bodied big power, swing and miss bat that can play the position but isn’t a standout defensively. In just 24 games post-draft, he hit 5 home runs and displayed strong exit velocities. The whiff rates were true to form at 36% which was in the 16th percentile for Single-A. With one above average tool, a lightly collected team, no draft/prospect pedigree, and a backup catcher role at best, Parker is an easy one to avoid for the Hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2 Both
Jackson Wentworth, P, 22
I wonder if Jackson’s middle name starts with a “G”. Why, you ask? I have Bowman Draft cards, but I need cash now. Call J.G. Wentworth, 877-CASH-NOW. Hopefully more than one reader gets that joke, because I can’t get that out of my head when I see the name “Wentworth”. Jackson tore his UCL and missed all of his freshman year at Kansas State. His first year back wasn’t great, and he only was able to get in 32 innings. In his Junior year, he showed who he really was, which was going from a non-prospect to a prospect that could potentially contribute to an MLB org at some point either in the rotation or in the bullpen (he split time between the two in his Junior year). His arsenal is a low-90’s fastball, cutter, curveball, slider, and a changeup. The fastball isn’t that effective, and its primary purpose is to set up his offspeed and breakers to get whiffs. The fastball needs to take another step forward for Wentworth to show he can have a future in the rotation. Every video I saw, hitters were barreling up the fastball way too easily. The more likely outcome is that he ends up in the bullpen, which would allow his big whiff breakers to play up. The profile isn’t one to drive any real hobby interest. It doesn’t help that he doesn’t have any autos and that Toronto isn’t a huge collector base. I would allocate Bowman Draft funds elsewhere. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Base-Only
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Seaver King, 21, SS
Taken 10th overall by the Nationals, I wasn’t the biggest fan of this selection in the moment as I preferred Bryce Rainer, Braden Montgomery, and Cam Smith, and I wouldn’t have hated an even more under-slot deal on Trey Yesavage than they ended up getting with King. In retrospect, Washington was able to save $800K when signing King, which helped them make a pick I was a fan of in the second round - Luke Dickerson, a prep shortstop that took almost $2M over slot to make it happen. King is an athletic, free swinger that makes a ton of contact and uses his plus speed as a weapon on the base-paths. To illustrate the point on his aggressive approach, in his 25 games post-draft, King swung at over half the pitches he saw (51%), which was in the 81st percentile in Single-A. As for the contact numbers, he had a zone contact rate in the 79th percentile and an outside the zone contact rate in the 76th percentile. The downside to this approach is that he’s not going to be making as much impactful, big power contact. Defensively, the Nationals had King exclusively playing shortstop. He has the physical gifts to get to any ball in play and the arm is good enough for the position. If a more elite defender at the position comes along, he should have no problem playing a plus center field, second, or third base. King has the draft pedigree of a top 10 overall pick and likely puts up gaudy contact numbers, batting average, and stolen bases, especially in the lower minors. It will be really interesting to see how his approach plays out against the upper minors, but I don’t expect that to happen until the second half of 2025. In the meantime, I’d look to sell into the hype of a .300+ hitter stealing 10+ bags a month in the low minors. Still, the hype and skills merit a Tier 2 ranking in the short term. And he could simply be that good, where he can maintain the high swing rate, high contact rate, and strong results throughout his career, ending up looking like a bit more swing happy version of Nico Hoerner. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Randal Diaz, 21, SS
Diaz’s defense is a major reason Indiana State found themselves playing well in the NCAA regional tournaments each of the last two years, and he also finished his Collegiate career with a 32 game hitting streak. With those two things being microcosmic of his game in total, being taken in the 5th Round as he was seems about right. He’s a righty with a really flat swing plane and an aggressive approach that’s likely to restrict the projection on his hit tool in pro ball, as quality of contact is likely to become an issue against pitching that’s just much, much better than the Missouri Valley Conference. His speed is good enough to serve him well in the field, but he’s not a big threat on the bases. It’s possible he eventually touches double digit HR given a full run of AB’s, but no more. I don’t think anything I’m telling you about Diaz says he’s a surefire anything in pro ball, but if he makes it to the majors it’ll likely be as a light hitting utility bat – valuable to organizations, but essentially nothing for the hobby. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3 Both
Jackson Kent, 21, P
The University of Arizona lefty has a funky delivery that looks like that of a reliever, but an uptick in his fastball velocity and his natural athleticism give him a rising profile that had the Nationals taking a shot on him in the 4th Round. Kent has the prototypical starter’s size at 6’3” and showed good durability for the first time in 2024. After sitting in the high 80’s with his fastball as a reliever last year, he worked in the 91-93 range this year. He paired that with his best pitch, a changeup that he uses to generate weak contact and swing-and-miss with great frequency. His other secondaries need more refinement to serve a function in pro ball, but his slider has some promise. I think the toolkit to make it to the majors as a starter of some ilk is here, but his fastball is nothing special at present. So, without significant reason to actually respect that devastating changeup…uh…let’s just say there’s work to be done across the board. From what I see now he’s most likely to be a backend guy, and even worse for the hobby, his K upside doesn’t look very good. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3 Base-Only