The sixth edition of Live Looks from the Cape will cover INF Mitch Jebb, 1B/RF Nolan Schanuel, RHP TJ Brock, LHP Dalton Rogers, RHP Liam Simon, 2B Tommy Troy.
2022 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects
This Top 600 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed… Druw Jones, for us, is a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Where do we currently have Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, and Elijah Green currently ranked? What about Chase DeLauter, Brooks Lee, Kumar Rocker, Jace Jung and others?
ACC Tournament Live Looks: Pitching Edition
What a way to end the spring season.
It’s always nice to end good things out with a bang, and as we start to transition from 2022’s class to 2023, I figured it’d be best to make my way down to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament to get an opportunity to see guys I wasn’t able to in the regular season. It turned into one of the best events I have been a part of, so in return, you will get a lot of live look notes in this one. This will be part one of a two-part mini-series, with pitchers only in this edition before a hitters edition after this. Let’s dive in.
LHP Nate Savino, Virginia
Nate Savino’s been a frustrating pitcher to gauge throughout his college career. He enrolled early at Virginia before the COVID-shortened 2020 season and seemingly lost the velocity he had in his prep days. But over the past month or so, Savino has seen a return of the velocity and he’s risen up multiple draft boards as a result. Friday continued that trend against a strong Notre Dame lineup.
For starters, Savino’s velocity peaked at 96 MPH, comfortably sitting 93-95 MPH and doing a good job of holding it throughout his outing. It still has its signature sinking action, though he did have some trouble landing the pitch arm-side. The slider has also risen in velocity, now sitting in the mid-80’s with some sweeping action, getting some chases on pitches low and away to lefties. The change-up can be a little firm at times, and much like the fastball, struggled to land arm-side, but it’s now into the mid-80’s with some fading life when it’s not firm. Everything comes from a lower three-quarters arm slot with some deception, as well.
When it comes to figuring out Savino’s mechanics, I did a little deep dive into his history. Back in his prep days, he was more athletic in his motions. Once 2021 hit, Savino closed himself off at foot strike and became more stiff and upright, which helps explain the velocity issues he experienced. From last year to this year, Savino has begun adding more force to the ground, thanks to using his entire foot to land instead of landing on his foot laterally. He’s also able to rotate quicker with his hips, which has helped him gain the velocity back (shoutout goes to Cam Lanzilli for the help with this). With this said, there’s still projection remaining to Savino’s frame and if he keeps these new mechanics going, there’s likely more in the tank from a velocity standpoint. He’s gone from a rather pedestrian arm to having some serious intrigue to him now, and it would not shock me to see Savino get popped on Day 1 in July.
LHP Brandon Schaeffer, UNC
Brandon Schaeffer’s journey this spring has been an up-and-down affair, but if there’s ever a time to be hot, now is the perfect time for it. Much like Cardinals’ farmhand Austin Love a year ago, Schaeffer has come into his own in the month of May, extending himself in-game and giving stability to the UNC pitching staff. But what he did on Friday, against the kind of offensive juggernaut he faced and the ballpark it was hosted, was one of the most dominant performances I have seen in person.
Schaeffer and head coach Scott Forbes mentioned the ups and downs in the post-game presser. With Max Carlson holding down the Friday night title after his return from the bullpen, Schaeffer really embraced his role as the Saturday guy, a solid starting option behind an emerging and budding ace. But Schaeffer took it to another level against Virginia Tech, holding 88-91 the entire outing with a fastball that was seemingly untouchable. No matter where he threw it, no one could touch it. He’d throw in a high-spin, sweepy slider and a change-up with running action, but the main star of the show was that sinker of his. He threw tons of first pitch strikes and only once allowed a runner to second base. With help from his defense, as well, Schaeffer threw 72% strikes and nearly finished a “Maddux”, ultimately settling for 102 pitches. As a draft prospect, he’s more of a Day 2-Day 3 name, but he’s left quite the impression with a strong finish to the ACC slate.
LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State
After seeing the pitching woes that hampered Florida State against UNC, I was hoping for a big turnaround coming into Charlotte this week. What we got was a complete 180 from Hubbart against a very good Virginia lineup. Head coach Mike Martin mentioned how “twitchy” of a guy Hubbart is and how settling him down mentally helped in the turnaround and help him find some of his Cape Cod velocity.
Against UNC, Hubbart only sat 88-91 MPH with his heater and struggled to throw strikes. Against Virginia? He found a groove early, throwing strikes and getting whiffs up in the zone thanks to excellent riding action, sitting 90-93 MPH and topping out at 94 MPH, which matches his maximum from the Cape. It was primarily fastball early, with Virginia hitters not being able to catch up to it. The slider wasn’t thrown for strikes early, but got better as the outing went along. It sat in the 77-81 MPH range with serious sweeping action and some bite to it, with high spin rates, as well. He even dropped in a couple of change-ups, which certainly got the attention of Martin in the dugout. It was a nice bounceback outing for Hubbart and he more than likely finds himself somewhere on Day 1, though likely in the second round.
LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami
This was the first time I had seen Palmquist as a starter. Last year as a reliever, it was a fun viewing. Sitting low-to-mid 90’s with his heater, tunneling the change-up, and having a slurvy breaking ball made life difficult in the box, especially with how low of a release he has. Fast forward a year later and in his new role, the velocity has not come to fruition for Palmquist. He's primarily been 89-92 MPH throughout the year, occasionally popping a 93, though he’s had bright spots as a starter.
The heater plays up from its velocity thanks to the characteristics of the pitch. It’ll run away from righties and he’s able to command it east/west nicely. He mainly started off 90-92 MPH, before settling in at 89-91 MPH. However, Tommy White managed to take two fastballs away and unload on them to the opposite field. The change-up is solid with fading action and mimics the fastball, tunneling nicely with the low, sidearm slot that Palmquist has. He introduced a breaking ball with more of a slider shape to it in the low-80’s, but it was mainly used against lefties and was seldom used. Ultimately, I think Palmquist becomes a reliever at the next level. With that said, Palmquist likely fits somewhere in the second to third round range.
RHP Liam Simon, Notre Dame
Liam Simon has had some ups and downs this year. Primarily a reliever coming into this year, Link Jarrett opted to start using Simon in more of a hybrid role, getting in some starts, though prior to Charlotte, the longest he had gone was four innings. Luckily for Notre Dame, Simon had his best outing of the season, keeping Virginia’s potent offense off the board across five stellar innings with eight strikeouts and just two walks.
Simon is a known flame-thrower and even in the starting role, the velocity didn’t waver. Simon was consistently 95-98 MPH and reared back for 99 MPH at times, especially later in the outing, with good tilt and carry to it, while also throwing a good amount of strikes from a funky, high three-quarters slot. The slider has wipeout potential, a tight spinning breaker with nasty late bite that essentially gives away from righties. It’s tough to pick up out of the hand at times and will, more often than not, get ugly swings while being in the opposing batters box. He’ll flash a change-up, but it lags behind the dynamic FB/SL duo. The main knock on Simon is the command, he can be rather streaky with the fastball and the slider usually ends up in the opposing box. That said, there’s plenty to like about Simon in a relief role moving forward with how dynamic he can be.
LHP Chris Villaman, NC State
Before the year started, Elliott Avent made one thing clear about Villaman; he would be utilized like Evan Justice was last year. Throughout the week for NC State, Villaman was used a total of four times, throwing a total of 9.2 innings while walking just two and striking out seventeen batters, including eight in five perfect innings in the title game against UNC on Sunday.
Villaman made a change to his fastball over the off-season and has become a legitimate weapon. Last year, Villaman threw more of a cutter that got into the mid-90’s, which was attributed to his cross-body motion on the mound. This year, Villaman added more riding life to the pitch with above-average spin rates and was untouchable up in the zone and Villaman could paint the corners with it. His change-up is still his best off-speed offering, a low-spin pitch that fades away from righties late and has excellent separation from the fastball. He still lacks an ability to spin a breaking ball, a fringey mid-70’s pitch that has more of a “get-me-over” feel to it, which will need to be addressed at the next level. He’s shown in the past he could start, and an organization may let him in pro ball, but he’s proven to be a potent bullpen arm and likely ends up in that role moving forward.
LHP John Michael Bertrand, Notre Dame
Bertrand is the oldest player in this piece, having turned 24 years old back in February. That said, he brings plenty of veteran presence, poise, and a great understanding of his craft to a Notre Dame squad poised to make their way to Omaha for the first time since 2002.
While he’s primarily been in the high-80’s in most of his starts, Bertrand came out sitting 90-93 MPH with the fastball, touching 94 MPH a couple of times. He’s the pure definition of a pitchability pitcher, showcasing a solid change-up, slider, and flashing the curveball throughout the outing and keeping Florida State in check throughout. In the third and fourth innings, Bertrand ran into trouble, but used a mental reset and began pitching backwards to help get him out of the innings, which proved big for Notre Dame as they secured their spot in the semifinals. Bertrand’s command was locked in after that, allowing him to go eight innings of one-run ball.
RHP Alex McFarlane, Miami
McFarlane has been one of my favorites arms in college thanks to how stupidly good his stuff is. I remember first seeing him against UNC last year and being blown away by how quick his arm is and how potent his arsenal can be. Miami’s bullpen has a good amount of stellar arms in the back-end and he’s become a very fun set-up guy to Andrew Walters (more on him shortly).
McFarlane has an insanely quick arm and a very good three-pitch mix. He reached up to 97 MPH with the heater showcasing tons of running action and sitting 94-96 MPH throughout. The slider is freakish, a dynamic two-plane breaker with tight spin and short bite in the mid-80’s that garners whiffs aplenty. The change-up has some fading action in the same velocity band as the slider, but it’s not used often. His command comes and goes and that’s ultimately what limits him from being in a larger role for Miami. More consistency will be the focal point moving forward with the kind of stuff he possesses. It would not at all shock me if McFarlane happens to move on a faster track than some once selected.
RHP Andrew Walters, Miami
If you are looking for more dominant relievers in college, Walters might be at the top of the list for you. Formerly a JUCO transfer from Eastern Florida State, Walters has been a dynamic force as Miami’s closer. He did not allow a run until late April and has limited the opposition to ten hits in thirty innings, while walking just five and running a strikeout-rate of 53%. Sources do say that this is #good.
With Walters, he could be classified as more of a “one-pitch” guy. Everything really lives and dies by the fastball. He matches plane at the bottom of the zone well and is still able to get good carry up in the zone. He sat 97-98 MPH with good command, pitching inside often and doing a good job of limiting hard contact. While he throws the curveball hard, sitting in the low-80’s, it’s seldom used. That said, Walters is able to limit righties with the breaker, which has some depth and bite to it. He’s got deception in his delivery, hiding the ball well, as well as having excellent extension and spin on the heater to make it difficult to hit. He likely will be selected in the top five rounds come July and would rise up the ranks relatively quickly given the stuff and command he possesses.
Other noteworthy arms: max carlson (UNC), zach maxwell (GT), mack anglin (clemson), wyatt crowell (FSU), alex rao (ND), rhett lowder (WF)
2022 MLB Draft - Top 500 Prospects
This Top 500 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed… Druw Jones, for us, is a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Where do we currently have Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, and Elijah Green currently ranked? What about Chase DeLauter, Brooks Lee, Kumar Rocker, Jace Jung and others?
2022 MLB Draft - Top 400 Prospects
This Top 400 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed… The Top 3 guys in this class are a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Where do we currently have Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones and Elijah Green currently ranked? What about Chase DeLauter, Brooks Lee, Kumar Rocker, Jace Jung and others?
2022 MLB Draft Early Preview - Right-Handed Pitchers
While certainly not concrete and all-encompassing, scouts have a way of siphoning the top right-handed talent to the top of draft boards every year. Especially in today’s baseball meta, there are qualifiers a right-handed college pitcher must possess should he hope to get selected in the first round of any given draft. There will always be outliers to any anecdotal model, but the modern right-handed arm is usually cut from a similar cloth.
First and foremost, there must be an element of velocity in his game. Scouts need to see the ability to throw hard, and you’ve got to miss bats as well. Generally, if a pitcher isn’t sitting north of 92 mph consistently, there’s very little chance they’ll hear their name on day one. And that’s the baseline, mind you. More than stuff alone, a right-handed pitcher must be able to command and control the baseball as well. Walks will lose you baseball games, and advanced hitters barrel up middle-middle cheese more often than not. The ability to work in and out, as well as up and down, is critical to the success of any starting pitcher.
A starting pitching prospect should have three pitches and the ability to control those pitches. The ability to command the fastball is a must. More and more, data plays a role in qualifying secondary pitches these days. Scouts like seeing big spin rates and appreciable markers that suggest future success. But some of those indicators in pitch design are discernable to the naked eye. I don’t need to show you TrackMan data to convince you Kumar Rocker’s slider is an extremely effective offering.
Starting pitchers also operate much different than most other arms. Scouts want to see athleticism and the ability to repeat. Pitchers who prove to be good athletes generally have the best chance to see more gains in their development moving forward in professional ball. Athleticism helps with efficiency and fluidity on the mound and can be a prerequisite to a player’s ability to repeat their release. Pitchers that are max-effort and rigid in their operation end up being relievers as they lack longevity and their command wavers earlier in outings.
Blade Tidwell
Tidwell was a big name in the 2020 MLB Draft, but went unselected due to his bonus demands, ending up in Knoxville. That has paid dividends. Tidwell has the prototype body, the athleticism and some low-hanging fruit in terms of development right in front of him that could vault his name into Top 10 conversations come July.
Tidwell’s full arsenal includes the fastball touching 99, more comfortably resting 94-95 most nights. He was living closer to 96 this summer for the Collegiate National Team. Tidwell focused on Clean Fuego training this summer in an attempt to get more ride out of his heater, experimenting more and more with attacking at the top of the zone, a tact the University of Tennessee has generally shied away from adopting in recent years. At his best, Tidwell was resting north of 19 inches of IVB, touching 22 inches at times. That would play beautifully in 2022. He works in a firm mid-80s bat-missing slider that presents more sweep than it does depth, and shows a fringier high-70s curveball that he struggles to command or throw with complete conviction. The changeup shows promising shape, though feel and command for the offering is still a work-in-progress as well. The book here is arm talent and projection, both of which are substantial.
Over 98.2 innings in 2021, Tidwell pitched to a 3.74 ERA, punching out 90 hitters and walking just 34. The opposition struggled to hit Tidwell, but when they did it would too often come in the form of homers. He made huge strides this summer for the Collegiate National Team, and the results were encouraging. In 31 plate appearances against the best hitters in the country, Tidwell saw his strikeout rate spike to 29 percent, his fastball generating a 33 percent whiff rate. Those are the kinds of numbers scouts like seeing when projecting out a future top-of-the-rotation horse.
Peyton Pallette
Pallette gets a ton of comparisons to Dodgers hurler Walker Buehler, and for good reason. It’s a lean, 6-foot-1-inch 180-pound frame with exceptional arm speed and a super-efficient lower body operation. That’s the book oh Buehler too. You could argue Pallette presents the best two-pitch combo of any starting pitching prospect in the class.
The fastball-curveball one-two punch from Pallette can be absolutely devastating. The heater touched 99 last season, sitting 93-95 with ease. It’s a high-spin offering with some inefficiencies in terms of spin direction and spin efficiency, something that could truly unlock another gear to his stuff at the top of the zone. While Pallette fills up the zone and commands the fastball well, its shape precludes the ability to generate a ton of swing and miss right now. The curveball is as dynamic as they come, touching 84 mph, sitting comfortably in the low-80s. It’s got spin rates exceeding 3000 rpms, as well as the vertical hammer shape teams covet. The pitch shape and metrics are elite here. Pallette isn’t as comfortable throwing strikes with the breaking ball, but most believe he shows enough feel to project at least a plus out-pitch as a pro. Pallette does possess a below average changeup and has flirted with a cutter as well. Optimists see a potential starter with two plus pitches and a usable off-speed pitch to offer against left-handed hitters.
Pallette has 61.2 innings to his name in Fayetteville, striking out 70 and issuing just 23 walks. He dealt with shoulder fatigue in 2021 so staying healthy in 2022 will be critical to reach his draft-ceiling in July, especially considering his lean frame. Analytically motivated organizations would covet Pallette and his intrinsic abilities on the mound. He certainly has the upside of a top ten pick.
Landon Sims
If Pallette doesn’t have the best one-two punch in college baseball, Sims probably does. The electric Sims was as dominant a reliever as you could find in college baseball in 2021, transitioning into a rotation role for the 2022 campaign.
It would be hard to argue for anybody but Sims having the most dominant fastball in college baseball last season. He sat 93-96, reaching back for 98. The ball explodes out of the hand, creating some of the best-performing metrics in the country. Sims threw his fastball for strikes almost 70 percent of the time. Those that swung at the heater whiffed through it more than 40 percent of the time; an outlandish figure at any level. As if those numbers weren’t impressive enough, opposing hitters chased Sims’ fastballs outside of the zone almost 30 percent of the time. Elite whiff rates. Elite chase rates. Pounded the zone. What’s not to like? Sims has a low release and innate deception. If the velocity continues to tick up, this could be a double-plus fastball. The slider is just as dynamic, averaging north of 85 mph and touching 88. Sims attacks hitters from the right side of the rubber and employs more sweep than depth on his slider, though most would characterize the breaking ball as short. It gains effectiveness through tunneling and deception. It plays up thanks to sublime command. It’s at least above average, though most believe it could be plus when all is said and done. Sims really hasn’t shown a changeup or curveball yet, something scouts will want to see in 2022.
Sims has 69.1 innings in his collegiate career despite never starting a game. He has no problem working multiple innings in crunch time. In those innings, he’s punched out an astronomical 123 hitters, issuing just 22 walks. If he carries anything close to that sort of production into the rotation, he could be the first arm off the board in July.
Kumar Rocker
After being selected 10th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the New York Mets and Rocker could not come to an agreement on a pro contract. Because of this, Rocker will give it another go in 2022. The narrative is long and exhausted. The concerns over his medicals after reports surfaced that he failed his physical with the Mets post-draft will be the storyline to watch this go around. To date, Rocker and his camp have been entirely absent from the public since July.
The weaponry is well-chronicled. A fastball that has been up to 98.6 but more often sits 93-95. The heater has strong riding characteristics and was swung through more than 31 percent of the time last season, an exceptional figure. The breaking ball is wicked with tremendous depth and deception, grading as high as plus-plus by evaluators. The cutter flashes above average and a changeup that is below average more often than not. It’s a full repertoire and figures to only improve at the pro level.
I’m still 100 percent in on Rocker. It still looks like top-of-the-rotation stuff to me and the operation works over long innings. It’s at least three pitches in his arsenal, probably four as he continues to mature. The concerns over his medicals will certainly be a point of emphasis, as they should be. If it’s shoulder-related, the caution ramps up a bit, but even if Rocker needs to go under the knife for Tommy John Surgery, it’s hard to imagine him not coming back and performing as he has since he was 16 years old. The track record is long and storied. Don’t overthink it.
Gabriel Hughes
There’s perhaps no other pitcher in the country more likely to explode onto the scene in 2022 than Gonzaga’s Hughes. A two-way guy in 2021, he broke his hand after getting hit by a pitch, costing him much of the year. That said, in 10 starts, he showed all he needed to get scouts juiced for the product of Eagle, Idaho.
At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Hughes is a power arm with the three-pitch mix evaluators covet. The fastball generally sat 91-94 last season, touching 96. He was more 92-95 this summer for the Collegiate National Team, again north of 96. Opposing hitters swung through the heater almost 30 percent of the time last season, but even when they did get bat-to-ball, Hughes avoided barrels. He throws a power-slider that he commands reasonably well glove-side with gyro-bullet spin. It tunnels the fastball well and can be un-hittable when he’s got feel for it. This could eventually be a plus slider. There’s a whole lot more in the tank with Hughes too. He’s an exceptional athlete showcasing a big leg kick and the ability to really ride down the mound, repeating his release consistently. It’s a high waist and long levers. It’s not hard to envision a guy throwing 94-98 in short order as he continues to mature.
Hughes has 73 collegiate innings under his belt with 80 strikeouts and 36 walks. Harnessing more command for his entire arsenal will be a point of emphasis in 2022. If he fills up the zone, the stuff is so good his baseball card is going to be quite gaudy.
Others to Watch: Adam Maier, Oregon; Marcus Johnson, Duke; Henry Williams, Duke; Eric Adler, Wake Forest; Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State; Jonathan Cannon, Georgia; Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State; Jarred Karros, UCLA; Josh White, Cal; Alex McFarlane, Miami; Mason Barnett, Auburn; Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech; Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State; Jacob Meador, TCU; Derek Diamond, Ole Miss; Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly; Brandon Sproat, Florida; Max Rajcic, UCLA; Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan; Mack Anglin, Clemson; Will Childers, Georgia; Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech; Liam Simon, Notre Dame; Carter Rustad, Missouri; Aaron Nixon; Texas; Nick Maldonado, Vanderbilt; Tyler Nesbitt, Florida; Jackson Finley, Georgia Tech; John Modugno, Indiana; Eric Reyzelman, LSU; Troy Melton; San Diego State; Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State; Sebastian Keane, Northeastern; Andrew Mosiello, Oregon; Sam Highfill, NC State; Matthew Wyatt, Virginia; Jake Brooks, UCLA; Parker Stinnett, Mississippi State; Jackson Fristoe, Mississippi State; Cade Winquest, Texas-Arlington; Will Frisch, Oregon State; Luis Ramirez, Long Beach State; Seth Halvorsen, Tennessee; Mark Adamiak, Arkansas; Cam Schlitter, Northeastern; Cam Weston, Michigan; Nick Durgin, Stetson; There are so many others…….
2022 MLB Draft - Top 300 Prospects
This Top 300 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed… This college crop of hitters is good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Where do we currently have Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones and Elijah Green currently ranked? What about Chase DeLauter, Brooks Lee, Kumar Rocker, Jace Jung and others?