Welcome to the annual Bowman Draft preview where we (Max and Joe) evaluate from a Hobby perspective every prospect with a 1st Bowman card in 2023 Bowman Draft. Not sure if you were aware yet or not, but Wyatt Langford’s good, y’all.
We classify each prospect in three ways - a Tier ranking, a Risk grade, and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Risk and Ceiling Grades
We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player.
Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
arizona diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
tier 2
Tommy Troy, SS/2B
Troy was regularly in the discussions for being chosen in the top half of the first round - essentially anywhere in that second tier after the first tier of 5 guys came off the board. Arizona ended up grabbing Troy at the 12th overall pick and picking up over $600K in savings while doing so. The Stanford middle infielder has a plus hit tool with a very patient approach. A controlled swing that doesn’t have any real holes in the zone, I expect Troy to regularly end up hitting .280 - .300 when he gets to the majors. He has average to above average power and it will simply be a question of how much he sells out for it, or if he doesn’t at all, that will determine if he regularly crosses the 20 home run barrier. On the speed side, it’s easily plus if not more and he shouldn’t have problems with putting up 30+ stolen bases regularly.
While he was primarily a second baseman in Palo Alto, the Diamondbacks have used him exclusively at shortstop in the 27 games he got in the minors before being shut down for what turned out to be a broken foot he had been playing through since March. He probably fits more at second base long term but can contribute on the left side of the infield as well.
With his 1st round pedigree and hit-speed profile, Troy is easily a Tier 2 player. He may not get into Tier 1 because he doesn’t look like he will get that 30-ish home run range. He feels like he falls somewhere of a combo of Xander Bogaerts and Whit Merrifield. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Kevin Sim, OF
Son of Chong-soo Shim, Hercules, a KBO legend with over 300 HR, Sim certainly has the bloodlines for baseball. Following in his father’s footsteps, Sim’s best tool is his power – it’s not a plus tool but he uses it well as a gap-to-gap asset rather than selling out to the pull side for homers. He’s good at making contact, but not enough of it is quality, so his hit tool lags behind the power. Those are his best tools - he doesn’t have good speed, and defensively, though he’s good enough for a corner OF, he may end up at first base. That would be a bad road for the underslot 5th-round pick out of SDSU unless his offensive tools take a leap. For the hobby, with power being his best asset and most likely potential growth area, there should be some appeal. But he’s not the type of player that’ll be a star in the league. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Jack Hurley, OF
Hurley was regularly being discussed as a backend first-round to early second-round pick leading into the draft, but he fell to the third round, with Arizona taking him at 80th overall. The main reason quoted for that fall down the draft board was the swing and miss prevalent in his game. And that was evident in his 33 pro ball games post-draft, spread across the Complex, Single-A, and High-A. He ended up with a combined strikeout rate at 32% across those three levels. Hurley brings power and speed to the table with an aggressive approach at the plate. His arm is on the fringe of being able to play right field, so he’s most likely limited to center and left field. There will probably be some people in on Hurley as a bit of a sleeper, and to be honest, I was interested in him coming out of the draft. After watching some minor league games, that swing and miss along with his aggressive approach, have had me back off quite a bit. The power-speed combo we look for in the Hobby is here, which keeps him in Tier 3 for now. If he’s cheap enough, I wouldn’t mind a couple of lottery tickets. However, the risk is a lot higher than I was expecting of reaching his Ceiling of an impact power-speed outfielder. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
tier none
Grayson Hitt, P
A lefty taken in the 4th round and signed to an overslot $1.2MM to keep him from returning to Alabama, Hitt was an April 2023 Tommy John casualty that’ll cause him to miss most of 2024. The Diamondbacks just saw enough promise that they want him in their hands for rehab and return to action. It wasn’t what he showed early in 2023, but his raw ability reportedly broke through in fall 2022. He saw a jump in velocity to the mid-90s with his fastball in those outings and an emergent cutter with some promise to be an above-average offering. His best pitch, though, is his already above-average slider.
Of course, we never saw any of this work together to full efficacy in-game action as he got hurt just as he was getting his feet under him. In game action, Hitt has never shown good command, and in returning from TJ, improvement in that regard will be critical. For the hobby, if his gains are real and he recovers to where the DBacks think he will, there’s a high-K mid-rotation upside here, but it’s all wishcasting at this point. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Philip Abner, P
A reliever from the University of Florida, Abner significantly increased his strikeouts while maintaining a low walk rate from 2022 to 2023. This put him on the draft radar, albeit as more of a top 500 guy rather than a top 200 guy, which is roughly the price the Diamondbacks paid for him (6th round, 175th overall). Abner is mostly a two-pitch guy from the left side with a low 90s fastball and a low 80s slider that dives towards the feet of right-handers. It’s an effective package in relief, and perhaps there is some high-leverage opportunity in the future for Abner. However, being left-handed limits that, and he was used as more of a 6th/7th inning guy by Florida and Arizona in the few games he had post-draft. There’s nothing to latch onto from a Hobby perspective. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Atlanta Braves
tier 1
None
tier 2
Hurston Waldrep, P
Waldrep was in that second tier of pitchers coming into the MLB Draft with Rhett Lowder, Chase Dollander, Noble Meyer, Charlee Soto, and Thomas White (Skenes being a tier on all his own at the top). Of the three college pitchers in this second tier (Lowder, Dollander, and Waldrep), Waldrep was the last of the group taken at 24th overall by the Braves. At the moment, the results are clearly favoring Atlanta with Waldrep far outpacing every single player in this entire group, both college and prep arms. To be fair, Waldrep has pitched the most out of any of these arms, but you still have to deliver, and Waldrep absolutely delivered. The Braves started Waldrep at Single-A and then pushed him through each successive level until he got his final start of the year at Triple-A.
The main concern with Waldrep is the command and that was the only blemish as he was moving through the levels. His three-pitch mix was highly effective when he was locating it, and his splitter was deadly. It plays really well off of his 95-97 four-seam fastball, which showed decent ride even if it looked a bit straight in the minor league starts I watched. His third pitch was an 87 mph hard slider that provided a nice change of pace to keep hitters off the fastball and look silly when it turned into the splitter falling off the face of the Earth. Waldrep is easily a mid-rotation starter and looks like the first pitcher that will make it to the majors from the 2023 draft. That in and of itself will drive Hobby hype. Add in a highly collectable team with Atlanta, sexy strike out stuff, and a 1st round draft pedigree, and Waldrep is a no-doubt Tier 2 pitcher. If he can get the command to above average or even plus, he suddenly starts to approach Ace territory and Tier 1 treatment. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 9
tier 3
Sabin Ceballos, 3B
A draft-eligible sophomore from Oregon via San Jacinto Junior College via Puerto Rico, Ceballos has been around, but he’s also still only 21 for most of 2024. He broke out at Oregon, as previously his poor swing decisions made him look like a project player. There’s a little more work to do, but he’s now hitting enough to let every bit of his above-average raw power show. His swing is geared to get to that power, and he’s good at crushing fastballs, but there’s enough nuance in his approach now that he can be viewed as having an average hit tool. As a physically mature 6’3” athlete with little speed or quickness, Ceballos has worked hard to keep his defensive value up at the hot corner - he has the arm for it to be sure. I want to see a little more buildup in his track record of making good swing decisions before I call his floor as any sort of safe, but he has the ceiling of a 20-25 HR bat with a decent average. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
Cade Kuehler, P
He was the comp-2nd round pick from Campbell, 70th overall. The Braves have an M.O. with their pitchers: Step 1: acquire talent that already has plus traits on a pitch or two. Step 2: develop that pitch extensively, and let the rest fall where it may. Kueler’s plus pitch is a 4-seam fastball that, while it lacks velocity, is (close to the) best in the class because of its spin and how he delivers it to the plate. He has a very deceptive, violent short-arm delivery – by the time he shows you the ball, he’s already in his follow-through. Of course, what I described is a reliever trait – and that’s the risk, especially coming from a maxed-out 6’0” frame. That deceptive mechanic can get a little out of sync sometimes as well, which can lead to command issues.
He has a starters’ repertoire with other pitches with average potential, but the Braves’ pitching lab will likely streamline that and develop him as a multi-inning reliever / five-and-dive type SP. But man, is there ever high-K upside. I like Kuehler a lot, I look forward to seeing how he develops in this organization, but hobby wise he’s definitely middling. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6
tier none
Drue Hackenberg, P
Love the landing spot. Though he had a disappointing year overall in 2023 at Virginia Tech, the Braves did not hesitate to draft him in the 2nd round and give him an overslot $2MM bonus. They clearly see a ceiling that outstrips the current evaluations of the player, and they’re a great org to get him to that ceiling. It’s a bit lazy to see a sinker-slider pitcher like Hackenberg getting hit hard and say “oh, they just figured him out” – because that is the danger in that profile. Hackenberg improved as the year wore on and his excellent command returned to form. He was great in his brief Pro Debut, even getting a taste of AA. His sinker is a nightmare to lift and generates a ton of grounders and weak contact, and the quality of his slider is an equal offering that will generate most of his strikeouts. He doesn’t really have a third pro-quality pitch right now, but that hurts his ceiling more than his floor. He’s on the shorter side and physically maxed out, though durability hasn’t been an issue.
For the hobby, I think Hackenberg is a safe floor play who’s likely to get to the majors quickly as a low-K #4 SP innings-eater-type, though long relief is an option. The pie-in-the-sky upside is that he develops a better third pitch and becomes Logan Webb. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4
Garrett Baumann, P
Baumann is a well-built 6’8” Florida prep righty who signed for overslot money in the 4th Round. From a raw pitch perspective, I liked what I saw with his fastball, which has some arm-side run and was up to 97 in short outings, and his change-up, which gets plenty of whiffs when its command is on. As you can imagine with any teen of his size there’s a bit to clean up mechanically – he won’t be a fast riser through the system. But it’s a good one to be in from a development standpoint, so his hobby ceiling ticks up with the landing spot. How his command and third pitch develop will determine where he ends up, but it quickly seems like a mid-rotation ceiling with no floor. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6
Baltimore Orioles
tier 1
tier 2
Mac Horvath, 3B
The Orioles 2nd round pick out of North Carolina, Horvath has the power and speed to be a hobby star. But his swing is a bit weird – it’s a compact, pull-heavy uppercut stroke, and that makes it difficult for him to reach certain pitches, especially well placed velocity high in the zone. It certainly didn’t show in his pro debut, which had him reaching all the way up to High-A where socked two dingers in 5 games. It’s not something to weigh too heavily - there are still those pull-heavy tendencies within it, but so far so good. Defensively his arm is better than his fielding, and RF might be his defensive home, where his plus speed will work well. Hobby-wise, the Orioles are the darlings of the baseball world right now and they’re ripe with home-grown talent. Could they have just found their next project from which they maximize potential? That’s the way collectors will see it. I’m just saying, be a little cautious - his hit tool may not be good enough to make it as an everyday major leaguer. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7
Enrique Bradfield, OF
Bradfield has immense real-life value because of his elite speed and defense – he’s 100% a worthwhile pick at 17th overall for the Orioles. However, his hobby status is quite a bit less. Hailing from powerhouse Vanderbilt, he’s very polished and great at all three aspects of plate approach - patience, chase, and bat-to-ball. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, but it’s clearly by design and to his benefit – that way when it’s poor contact he has a chance to beat out anything. Power is not a part of his game. Bradfield is ultra-lean – there’s room to add more muscle without impacting his speed but it would only help him get to a ~10-12 HR ceiling. He has a very safe floor, but he could be a multi-time all-star and still not be a great hobby name. He’s not a middling talent by any means and he cleans up any defensive questions the Orioles’ young core has in the OF in the near future – so team collectors should be all over him. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
Kiefer Lord, P
Lord is a starting pitcher project arm who was the O’s 3rd Round pick. Taken from Washington after transferring from a D3 program, the arrows have pointed up his entire collegiate career. He’s gained 12 MPH on his fastball since his prep days, and now works 94-96 with late life when it’s elevated. His slider and curve are too similar in shape and velocity right now but they have fantastic movement – Lord knows how to spin it even if the precision in his grips is off sometimes. He also has a chance, but he doesn’t have as much confidence in throwing it. Lord also has a great body with some projection remaining. His command is also already above-average. There’s so much to like about Lord – it’s just a lack of track record that had him falling to the 3rd. The Orioles are a trustworthy system to develop a player like this. I think for the hobby there’s a road ahead here, but one that could be as high as a #2 starter. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
Jake Cunningham, OF
On the back of a strong Sophomore effort, Cunningham got injured leading into the 2023 season, leading to a delayed start and less than stellar results. The Orioles still took Cunningham in the fifth round for close to slot money on the strength of a personal workout where he reportedly turned in a 111 mph exit velocity. He only had 14 pro games post-draft, so it’s nearly impossible to draw any conclusions from that. Reports are a bit divergent on Cunningham, but the main through line is that he has no real deficiencies. The main caveat to that is the hit tool, which will allow him to be that high-end Tier 3, everyday player hitting towards the top of the order or a 4th/5th outfielder type that is more of a Tier None player. The speed is definitely plus, and the power, given that EV context above, is at least above average to potentially plus. For now, I’ll give Cunningham the benefit of the doubt with a Tier 3 ranking, but I have doubts about how he will handle advanced pitching given his approach. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Jacob Cravey, P
Cravey is a big 6’6” 6th round pick from Samford that was top 10 in strikeouts among all of NCAA Division 1. His best pitch is a mid-90s fastball with good ride, but his slider and change are also quality offerings. They all have above-average potential with some predictable growth. His command needs to be more consistent, but it’s already at least average. The Orioles do well in making tweaks with this type of profile to fast-track them to the majors, so he could be a quick riser. One thing that concerns me with Cravey is the violence in his delivery. That usually tends to affect durability, but with someone as strong as Cravey, it hasn’t happened yet. I think it’s a high-K, back-end starter potential, which should draw a bit of hobby interest. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Levi Wells, P
A 6`2” Texas State righty that was taken in the 4th round, Wells has the makeup of a starter. His fastball is a 92-94 MPH offering and it works well with his slider & curve. All could end up as average or better pitches. He even has a change that has some promise, but that’s further behind his other pitches. Despite mediocre stats this year, there is solidly an up arrow by his name. He’s escaped the pigeon-holing of being a reliever that he had come out as a prep and his first collegiate year at Texas Tech by cleaning up his mechanics in a significant way. Of course, nothing I’m saying here is telling you he’s a significant name for the hobby, right? He’s not. Like Cravey, he might be quick to ascend through the minors, but his ceiling is that of a back-end innings eater type. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4
Jackson Baumeister, P
Taken in the CB-B round at 62nd overall, Baumeister is a well-built 6’4” righty from Florida State. A top prep name in the 2021 draft, his progress in college hasn’t been what many expected, as he’s been hit harder than expected due to command issues. His mix doesn’t really have any pitches with plus potential, but it’s a true starter’s repertoire and he has confidence in all four pitches, which leads to high K rates. What’s most interesting is his landing spot. The Orioles are good at maximizing their system's talent, and Baumeister has a solid foundation from which to build, starting with his physique. For the hobby it’s probably a longer path to the majors than some of the other arms the Orioles drafted, though he has a ceiling as a sum-of-the parts #4 SP if it all comes together. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Boston Red Sox
tier 1
None
tier 2
Nazzan Zanetello, SS
Taken in the 2nd round, the Missouri prep signed for a way overslot $3MM. It’s because Zanetello projects as a legit 5-tool talent. His defensive home isn’t really certain, but he has a great arm and already above-average speed that’s still developing. That makes him a fit in a lot of places. He has a thin, wiry frame with a lot of room for physical growth, and he’s already shown some fantastic bat speed that indicates some true power is coming. Unfortunately, his most questionable tool is his hit - he doesn’t yet have a consistent feel for the barrel. That his hit tool is behind, for now, just means that he’ll be a longer-term project in the minors. I’d expect him to start in the Complex next year where he’ll try to get some consistency to his swing and find a more focused positional home. There’s very clearly every range of outcomes with Zanetello - his hobby ceiling is enormous. This could be a 30 HR/20 SB up-the-middle defensive maverick. But he could also never get out of High-A, or anything in between. We hobbyists always bet the ceiling, especially for a prospect in the Boston market. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 9
tier 3
None
tier none
Kristian Campbell, 2B
Campbell was pushed all the way up to High-A in his debut and it’s interesting that he was deployed not just at 2B where he projects to be an above-average asset, but also in the OF, which he didn’t really do at Georgia Tech. He’s got a low, pre-coiled stance with a toe-tap he uses to execute his contact-first approach. It results in a lot of grounders, but he’s trying to hit line drives to all fields, and it’s been effective. It’s worked because he does have above average speed, but there’s thought he could get to some legitimate power if he alters his swing path a bit. That’s not something we know the Red Sox want to explore with their compensatory 4th rounder, so we’re left with the well below average power paired with an above average hit tool – not exactly the making of a hobby hero. I think the Red Sox have already tipped their hand that they think Campbell can be a fast-rising utility type, but I don’t think there’s the future of MLB regular without tapping into more power. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3
Justin Riemer, 2B
Though he was Wright State’s SS, his arm isn’t good enough to stick there as a pro, so the compensatory 4th rounder will instead work through minors at 2B or even LF. At 6’0” with a deep crouch and a lithe frame, he’s not imposing in the batter’s box - instead, he comes at you with elite bat-to-ball skills. He’s truly a tough out, whether he’s grinding an 11-pitch AB to work a walk or dumping an outside-corner breaking ball into RF. Just don’t expect much power. He could be a .370 OBP-type in the majors though, so for the Red Sox it doesn’t matter. He did suffer a knee injury in March and didn’t make his pro debut. When recovered, he could make a quick ascent through the minors though. I think he’s that good of a hitter. He’s more pesky than any sort of dynamic though. Maybe a present-day Nico Hoerner-type ceiling? Not great for the hobby at large, but very interesting for Red Sox fans. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4
Connelly Early, P
Transferring from Army to University of Virginia worked wonders for Early’s draft stock. A lefty taken in the 5th Round, he has a thin 6’3” frame and works just 89-92 with his fastball. What makes him tick is the deception in his delivery paired with three offspeed pitches that compliment that fastball well. He also showed greatly improved command in his final year. It’s interesting that he stays org-mates with Kyle Teel, who if he stays at the same level as Early will could help his development track. It’s very clearly a pitchability lefty profile, but one that easily has a back-end rotation ceiling, perhaps a bit higher. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4
Chicago Cubs
tier 1
None
tier 2
Matt Shaw, SS/2B
There may not have been a better pro debut for any of the 2023 MLB Draft picks, outside of Wyatt Langford, than for the Cubs’ first-round pick. A brief three-game start at the Complex, skipping Single-A to go straight to High-A for 20 games that he crushed, and then finishing up with 15 games at Double-A that were well above expectation. In just those 38 games, he hit a combined .357 with 8 home runs and 15 stolen bases. While he spent most of his time at shortstop, he’s more likely to end up at second base long-term due to his average arm. That puts a bit more pressure on the bat, but in Shaw’s case, that shouldn’t matter as that’s where he excels. He controls the zone, makes a ton of solid contact, and can drive the ball from one end of the field to the other. It’s not huge power, but it’s 20+ home run power, which is enough, and in Wrigley, will play up for sure.
Draft pedigree, a collectable team, and a buzz-worthy debut are all likely to drive Shaw’s prices up significantly. In a product lacking quite a bit of the early draft picks, the hype may get a bit out of control. A future high average 20/20 bat with the pedigree and Cubs uni is easily a Tier 2 player. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
None
tier none
Jaxon Wiggins, P
A long-talked about 6’6” righty out of Arkansas, Wiggins has the stuff to make it as an MLB arm. He pairs a high-90 fastball with a change that gets lots of swing-and-miss, and a slider that could end up as an average pitch. There are two issues, though - he’s never had consistent command of anything, and he had Tommy John surgery last winter. He’s also a hair old for being a junior, so with his time in the minors in 2024 expected to be limited, he’ll be 23 before he starts truly building up as a potential starter. I’d like his potential better if we get word that he’s just a straight relief option - that way, he won’t have so far to go on his command, either. But as the Cubs paid him a $1.4MM bonus as the 68th overall pick, I don’t think that’s the plan. I don’t like him at all for the hobby - he has high risk for multiple reasons and even if everything starts to click as soon as he’s fully back, we’re looking at an age-25 debut. He does have a significant ceiling, but for me, the low floor is the greater factor. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Michael Carico, C
When I say 5th round catcher, you don’t exactly think of a hobby hero, right? That’s mainly the case for the hobby with Carico, though his best tool is that power that we all love. At the plate, the former Davidson backstop has a stiff set-up with a swing to match - he relies on brute strength to get to his above-average power with regularity. His hit tool is also good and played well in the Atlantic 10, but there’s some concern that the stiffness will hinder him from reaching certain pitch types. Again though, he has the power to offset it. There are plenty of .220-hitting catchers in the majors with good power and average defense. The defense is the issue with Carico right now — he’s not a great receiver. He has a good arm, but mechanical issues leave him with a below-average grade because it’s inaccurate. It seems like the Cubs took a lottery ticket with this pick, hoping his hit tool plays well enough to escape his below-average defensive projection. He’s a catcher-only, and missed a lot of Davidson’s season due to injury, though he did return to the Cape Cod league in hopes to boost his stock. Like I said earlier, he’s not a great hobby name, but the power leaves him with a nice ceiling. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Chicago White Sox
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Jacob Gonzalez, SS
I know I’m low on Gonzalez — keep that in mind as you read. The 15th overall pick in the 1st Round, Gonzalez has seen the highest of highs in his projection as a future big-league talent, but he’s well off that peak now. There are major questions about his ability to stick at SS and his power. That said, he’s still a really mature hitter who performed well against good competition at Ole Miss. It was hard-earned, as his quality of contact was poor in his sophomore year (2022) because he was selling out for power he didn’t have. That’s important to note moving forward - we already know his power ceiling is finite. He also has no history of hitting well with wood. That unfortunately showed in his pro debut, but to be fair he needs more than 150 PA’s to make a judgment. It’s a profile full of buts and let’s see. So, where are the plus tools we like to see in a first rounder? Well it’s fielding, just probably not at SS because though he’s extremely smooth, he’s smooth like molasses. It’ll work really well at 3B. The ghost of what prospectors thought Gonzalez was 3 years ago still linger, so he’ll definitely be in demand despite the reality of who he’s become. His ceiling is a multi-time All-Star defense-first infielder who hits for a high-ish average & 15-20 HR, but there’s a ton of risk remaining - it’s a floor of never getting out of AA. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6
Grant Taylor, P
The White Sox may be getting a steal in the 2nd round in Taylor, but as he underwent Tommy John surgery in February, the discount was warranted. Injury aside, Taylor is a well-built 6’3” with smooth mechanics and while he didn’t start in his lone year at LSU, that’s where his future lies. He has a mix of 5 pitches at his disposal with a good feel for all of them. The best of the lot is his fastball that sits in the mid-90s with significant movement, and a wipeout hammer curve. Any and all of his pitches could end up as above average, and those two are likely plus. The negative side of this is his landing spot, his injury, and his lack of a track record in college. Those things are all significant, but in terms of college arms, his hobby ceiling is as high as any except the top few in this class. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Seth Keener, P
The White Sox 3rd Rounder from Wake Forest, there’s an easy path to that majors as a reliever as soon as 2024. For the hobby though, we hope he builds up as a starter because there’s still a lot to like. Keener is on the smaller side, but he has excellent and consistent mechanics. Those excellent mechanics allow his mid-90’s fastball to explode with late life - it’s an average pitch now, but could tick up to a plus pitch. However, what’s already a plus pitch is his slider. It’s a huge well-commanded sweeper that generates a ton of swing-and-miss. That’s the main reason it’s so easy to just say he’s a bullpen arm - he’s a nightmare against same-side hitters. He has an average change-up that’s very similar to the sweeper he mostly uses against lefties. If he stays with that simple 2.5-pitch mix, he’ll be quick to the majors as a reliever. To make it as a starter he probably needs to develop his fastball and change a bit more and most importantly, build up innings both game-over-game and season-long. He only threw a total of 82 innings in 2023, and much of it was relief. For the hobby, it’s mostly just that relief risk that should give collectors pause. He’s likely an MLB arm, and one with some dynamism. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
Calvin Harris, C
Harris promises to be a developmental project as a catcher because he’s a bit slow in his pop times and has a middling arm for the position, even if his receiving has become above average. Depending on the rest of his development, there’s a chance he could bounce to 1B if needed. The hit tool, though – this is what you came for. We found love with it in the last two years at Ole Miss - there some good feels for the barrel even if he has a quirky follow-through (or lack thereof). That really just affects the ceiling of his power, but he still showed it well enough for the White Sox to take him in the 4th. If his backswing can be tweaked, there’s likely a bit more raw power if that’s his desire. There’s a bunch of boxes yet to mark on his checklist before we can call him more than a fringy prospect as a catcher with questionable value if he moves off, and I’m not alone in thinking that. He doesn’t feel so close to the majors, but it wouldn’t be a miracle if he made it as an offense-first backstop, more than likely a backup. For the hobby, he’s well outside the top names in this product, and to think otherwise would be living on a sweet nothing. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Christian Oppor, P
Oppor was a Wisconsin prep lefty who was taken in the 11th Round by the A’s last year as a draft-and-follow, but he opted to re-enter the draft after attending his Florida JuCo this year. It paid off for him, as he was taken in the 5th Round. It wasn't truly results-based, but his fastball gained predictable velocity and was up to 98 – coming from the left side, which is intriguing for many teams. His secondaries are nowhere near ready though, and he remains a project that’ll have a long road ahead. He has good size and an athletic frame, so there’s hope that one day he’ll be a rotation piece of some sort. For the hobby, right now, it’s a tough buy for a guy who’s essentially a one-pitch pitcher at present with questionable projection in his secondaries. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
Lucas Gordon, P
Gordon is a pitchability lefty 6th-Round pick out of Texas. At his best he pairs his low-90’s fastball with a high-70’s sweeper and a mid-70’s change that cause impatient hitters fits – it was unsurprising that he wasn’t challenged in his brief pro debut in the low minors. It’ll be far more interesting to see how that arsenal fairs against more advanced competition because what you see is most likely what you’ll get moving forward. He’s a little undersized, but more importantly, he seems close to maxed out in his body and throws with some effort at present. If he succeeds, optimistically, it will be as a back-end starter type. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3
Cincinnati Reds
TIER 1
None
tier 2
Rhett Lowder, P
The second best college arm by the time the draft rolled around, Lowder was the main man for one of the best teams in college baseball in Wake Forest. His numbers were absolutely eye-popping in 2023, going 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA over 120 innings. Understandably with the heavy workload, the Reds chose to sit him down post-draft, so we won’t get to see him pitch professionally until 2024.
Lowder has a three pitch mix with a mid-90’s fastball that sets up his plus slider and changeup. His strong command completes the package and gives him SP2 upside. There’s more velocity potential as well given his frame and easy delivery. If he can go from 92-95 regularly to 95-98 regularly, there’s SP1 potential. Without that velo jump, he’s still in that SP2/SP3 territory. Sadly the Reds landing spot and Great American Smallpark do knock his Ceiling down a tick, but he’s still a Tier 2 pitcher until we get to see some pro innings under his belt. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Ty Floyd, P
One really only needs to watch his performance from LSU’s 4-3 victory in Game 1 of the 2023 College World Series to see Floyd’s ceiling. In that game he regularly located his mid-90’s, explosive 2-seam fastball up in the zone with regularity, mixing in a slider with a sharp downward plane and change-up that he commands well. In that game, he was strike machine, and K’d 17 hitters, which tied a record for a CWS final. Of course, that’s the ceiling. Even in that game he gave up a few HR when he missed his spots – his command is generally more inconsistent. His fastball is clearly a plus pitch, but the rest of his arsenal isn’t fully developed. That’s going to be an issue against higher quality talent that can pick up spin well, so it’s important that if he’s going to remain a starter, those secondaries progress as he moves through the minors. If they don’t, there’s very clearly value already in his being a reliever - there’s not a lot of risk of him not reaching the majors at all, and that’s what made the Reds take him so high, in the CB-A round, 38th overall. Hobby-wise, I don’t know. There’s a high ceiling, and a high-ish real life floor, but his hobby floor is significantly lower because of the relief risk. I wouldn’t blame you for going hard on him, but I won’t be. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6
Cole Schoenwetter, P
The Southern California prep arm was given a big over slot deal in the fourth round, getting almost $1.5MM more than his slot was assigned to. Essentially he was paid like a second rounder, which is roughly where he ranked on draft boards. Like most prep arms, he didn’t get any pro games after the draft, so we have to rely on the draft reports and high school tape.
Schoenwetter relied heavily on a two-pitch mix featuring a mid-90s fastball with good ride. He regularly threw this ball up in the zone and challenged hitters to great success. The main secondary was a loopy 12-6 curveball that regularly started in the same tunnel as the fastball. He also has a change-up, but I rarely saw it. There are some potential mid-rotation characteristics with a plus fastball being that foundation. The lack of draft pedigree and the Cincinnati situation (not a highly collectable team, not a good home park to pitch in) make it an easy Tier 3 decision. But that fastball curveball combo briefly had me considering him for Tier 2. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Connor Burns, C
The 5th round pick from Long Beach State has much more value to the organization than he does for the hobby. He has every accolade you can imagine defensively - his glove would play in the majors now if he didn’t have to hit. Therein lies the rub. He did show more power than ever before in his junior year, but it still now tracks as being below average, with a hit tool trailing behind that. Still, it’s absolutely a worthwhile gamble to see if his offense can develop enough to end up as an MLB backup catcher. It’s just something the hobby should have no interest in whatsoever. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 2
Ethan O’Donnell, OF
O’Donnell is the type of guy you won’t see on the Reds prospect list, but you will see as one who has a chance to make an impact. The Reds sixth round pick out of the University of Virginia doesn’t really have any weaknesses but is lacking that standout tool. That being said, he could end up with plus defense and plus run tools once we get a full season of pro looks at him. He can play all three outfield positions and has the range and speed to stick in center with the ability to make highlight reel catches. The hit and power are both average, and he’s more of a gap power guy at the moment. In Cincinnati, that may be enough to get him to double-digit home runs, and he should put up 20-plus stolen bases in full playing time. More than likely he ends up as a fourth outfielder and that puts him into Tier None. However, there is definitely room to grow and he could get into that everyday outfielder with plus defense and speed that is more of a Tier 3 player - let’s see if he can get there. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Hunter Hollan, P
Hollan is a lanky left-hander out of the University of Arkansas who throws strikes and mowed down some of the best lineups in the SEC in 2023. He did not pitch post-draft, most likely because he underwent a minor knee procedure in June prior to the draft.
His fastball is typically 90-92 with his best secondary being a curveball that he’ll bury at the back foot of right handers. He’ll throw a slider and a change-up as well, and they all work well with the fastball. The problem is the velocity in general, but especially the fastball velocity. He’s going to need to make some gains there to profile as anything more than a back-end command and control guy living on the margins. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Cleveland Guardians
tier 1
None
tier 2
C.J. Kayfus, 1B
Having Kayfus in this tier is a hot take — I know it, but let’s do this. Though he’s mostly played 1B, the 3rd rounder from Miami isn’t pigeonholed to the position and could work as a corner OF. It’s a good thing, because he doesn’t have the above average power that’s the prototype of that position. Rather, he’s known for his excellent feel to hit. It’s a quiet setup and he’s a patient hitter - he had more walks than strikeouts as a sophomore, junior and in his pro debut. He has an all fields approach with real gap-to-gap pop, and the hope is that it ticks up with a little more maturity. So far it’s already showing - at Low-A, he smacked 8 XBH (4 HR) in 59 AB’s – we can only hope that’s a trend and not an anomaly. To me, this is a fantastic profile to bet on for the hobby that I don’t think many will be on. His plus hit tool gives him a solid floor – it really just depends on where he ends up on defense (I absolutely think he can handle OF) and how much power he gets to (20-25 HR peak to me). He also could be a quick riser through the system, which is a positive for the hobby. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7
Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B
The Southern California prep bat was the Guardians’ first-round pick in the 2023 draft for more than $800K under slot, allowing them to splurge on the big-time lefty prep pitcher Alex Clemmey in round 2 and college infielder Alex Mooney later on in round 7. Mooney was a bit of a puzzling choice to spend that money on and I’m only mentioning it here because Mooney isn’t in the product, so we won’t talk about him again until 2024 Bowman more than likely.
Velazquez was one of the more unlucky prep bats on the circuit prior to his prep season and then he dominated in the Spring. Unfortunately, like a lot of prep draft picks, he barely got any game exposure post-draft, with just six games at the Complex. He had at least one hit in all six of those games as well as hitting two home runs. And that’s the Raffaele “Ralphy” Velazquez experience - an above average hit tool with plus power and not much speed. On the defensive side, he’s got enough chops to stick behind the plate but for hobby purposes we hope he gets more time as a first baseman. He is on that border of Tier 2 and Tier 3 for me. On the negative side, there is a potential catcher penalty if he sticks there full time, Cleveland really doesn’t have much of a track record of developing power bats recently, and we barely got a pro sample to dig into. On the plus side, he’s got first round draft pedigree, the power we love, and a hit tool to support it, not to mention likely ending up as a top 10 prospect in the Cleveland system industry-wide. That’s enough to give him a tentative Tier 2 ranking. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Alex Clemmey, P
The Rhode Island prep left hander was the Guardians second round pick and signed for $900K over slot, which is no surprise as Vanderbilt commits tend to take a strong effort to convince skipping the college game. At 6’6” with a fastball in the upper 90’s from the left side in the Cleveland pitching development factory, the sky is the limit for Clemmey. He pairs that fastball with a nasty breaker and a developing change-up. As is typically the case for prep pitchers, Clemmey didn’t get any pro ball action beyond pitching in Instructs. The one widely circulated clip we did get was that nasty breaker starting out in the middle of the zone and diving at the back foot of a right handed batter with a ton of horizontal and vertical break for a swinging strike. There’s relief risk with the inconsistent change up and some command concerns, which makes it easy to stick Clemmey in Tier 3 as a temporary ranking. However, there’s big boom potential here, especially in Cleveland, and he’s someone to keep a close eye on as a future SP2/SP3. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Tommy Hawke, OF
If Hawke makes it to the majors, his high-energy style will make him easy to root for. But as a lithe 5’8” (probably) corner OF 6th Round pick, there’s a lot stacked against him from the start. The Wake Forest product is great at making contact that’s conducive to his plus speed, but too much of it isn’t quality. He doesn’t chase though, which puts his hit tool as at least average overall. He lacks any power whatsoever, which you’d expect, and while he’s played a lot of CF he’s below average there. His sparkplug style of play is really what makes him most interesting for the hobby, but in order for it to count he’ll have to really be exceptional with his hit tool. I’m not willing to make that bet, personally. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Andrew Walters, P
Miami’s closer for the last two seasons, Walters’ fastball is electric. It’s an offering that’s been up to 99 with sick armside movement, especially up in the zone. There’s a track record of his being able to control that pitch is great too, which led the Guardians to take him with the 62nd pick of the Draft in the CB-B round. There is quite a bit of effort in his delivery - it borders on violence - so it’s a relief-only profile. He will need a better second pitch to reach the majors, but the Guardians are a great system to help him develop it, and it could happen quickly. I’m high on the possibility of his high-leverage reliever ceiling being hit. For the hobby, it’s not a great name though. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3
Cooper Ingle, C
Ingle is the definition of a high floor, low ceiling player. He’s a high OBP hit tool profile without much, if any, power. Great strike zone recognition, doesn’t swing and miss much, and outside of his Freshman year, he’s walked more than he’s struck out. In his 17 games post draft, all at High-A, he had close to a 25% walk rate while having less than a 12% strikeout rate. Ingle puts the bat on the ball a lot, with a focus on contact, leading to a high ground ball rate.
Primarily playing catcher, but given his smaller stature and outfield experience at Clemson, he could end up filling an Austin Barnes type of role as the utility catcher backing up multiple fielding positions. As a left-handed batter, it further cements that future role. There could be an argument for a Tier 3 player because of that high floor, but the Hobby really doesn’t pay for floor, it pays for Ceiling, and thus pushes Ingle into Tier None territory. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4
Christian Knapczyk, SS
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Cleveland drafts/signs a hit over power middle infielder. Totally unexpected! And when I say hit over power, I should emphasize that there is almost no power. In his three years at the University of Louisville, Knapczyk hit three home runs. He’s also a smaller guy at 5’9”, 165 pounds, so it’s highly unlikely he grows into any power worth mentioning. The hit can be plus if you believe the underlying data - he has big time bat speed and rotational velocity, and has had that for quite a while. That suggests he’s got good athletic potential to reach his hit tool potential. He’s also going to run a fair bit, probably in the 20+ stolen base range. Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see his pro debut yet and I couldn’t find any info on injuries that may have led to that. There’s Tier 3 potential here, but there isn’t enough draft pedigree (5th rounder) and he’s likely to not crack Guardian Top 30 lists, or if he does, be at the tail end of them. He’s simply too far off the radar and doesn’t have the power to give him that Tier 3 benefit of the doubt. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Colorado Rockies
tier 1
None
tier 2
Cole Carrigg, OF
Taken 65th overall in the CB-B round from San Diego State, Carrigg is a switch-hitting, super athlete without a defensive home (C, SS, OF), but he’s a natural anywhere – for the hobby I’d selfishly like him to be a CF where he surely has plus defensive potential. He has an aggressive, slashing, contact-oriented approach at the plate that leads to a lot of grounders and line drives. But it’s intriguing that his bat speed is so impressive as well when he’s not using his two-strike approach. That’s what was on full display in his pro debut, which was one of the best in the class. He started in the Complex but moved to Low-A, and the totals were 20 XBH (5 HR) with a .350/.408/.600 slash in 140 AB’s with 13 SB as a kicker. Sure it’s low levels and he’s a college bat, but this is significantly more pop than he showed at San Diego State. Did he figure something out? The hobby will default to that answer being yes regardless, but he started with great tools. He will not be cheap, but I’m very interested in a player like him. Everyone should, right? The floor isn’t all that high – his aggressive approach could just not work in the upper minors and lead to quality-of-contact issues. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
None
tier none
Jack Mahoney, P
The Rox 3rd round pick from South Carolina, Mahoney had a very nice rebound year from a 2021 Tommy John surgery. He’s into the mid 90’s with a riding fatball, and it’s fair to think there’s more velo coming – he was up to 97 pre-injury. His secondaries are a bit of a work in progress. While both his slider and change have good movement, they’re similar to each other (slider lacks sweep or bite, change lacks fade, similar velocity) and he’s worse at commanding them than his fastball. Counting on the Rockies to make a ‘critical development’ in any pitcher has historically been a tough ask, and for the hobby I’ll personally wait for that trade to trend to change before I buy into any pitcher in this org that needs it like Mahoney does. He does have mid-rotation upside if it happens though. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Sean Sullivan, P
As one watches video of Sullivan, the first thing you see is the tricky low three quarters delivery from the left side, and it’s instantly interesting from his 6’4” frame. Then, watching pitch after pitch, you see fastball-fastball-fastball…is there anything else? Well, there is, but it’s that low 90’s fastball that he delivers from wide of the plate with beautiful ride that will always be his bread and butter. He doesn’t really need to throw his secondaries with much frequency, but they need a little bit of growth to say he has a shot as a starter. Unexpectedly taken in the 2nd Round, it’s fair to question if the Rockies think a pitcher with a simple repertoire like this is just a good fit for the organization? Perhaps so, but in the hobby, Colorado pitchers are just a complete dead zone. If Gabriel Hughes can’t get any hobby love being taken 10th overall last year, a quirky trickster like Sullivan certainly will not, regardless of whether he makes it as a SP or not. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Isaiah Coupet, P
A lefty, Coupet gave teams something to think about as he worked as a starter this year for Ohio State. However, it’s pretty clear that with a smallish 6’1” frame and a deceptive low three quarters delivery that looks really stressful, his future is in the bullpen. He’s known for being excellent at spinning the ball and looks the part of a high-leverage arm if it all comes together. Both his slider and curve are potential plus pitches – that alone makes it a good pick in the 4th round. He’s also improved his command this year in the Buckeyes’ rotation, which helps his below average fastball have some level of effectiveness. There’s a pretty easy path to the majors for Coupet, though it’s the Rockies for one, and he’ll probably toy with the rotation for another. I’d rather he gets pushed quickly to the upper levels as a reliever where the environments in the Rockies system are tough, so we can truly see if his stuff plays well in those there. Anyway – this is another arm for the Rockies that’s not a great hobby name. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3
Cade Denton, P
A 6th round pick, Denton was Oral Roberts’ closer the last two years, and a great one. He led all of NCAA Division I with 15 saves, and for the second consecutive year spun a sub-2.00 ERA with a K/9 over 11. He does it by combining a very low three-quarters delivery that’s tough to pick up, with a two-pitch mix. They work counter to each other - a mid 90’s fastball with a ton of armside run, and a sweeping slider that’s an even better pitch than the fastball. I can imagine he’s terrifying to face in short spurts. The hobby downsides are that he is definitely relief only, and he goes to the worst team context of all for pitchers. That said, it’s easy to envision a quick rise through the minors to the back of that bullpen in Denver. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 2
Detroit Tigers
tier 1
Max Clark, OF
One of the five headliners of the 2023 MLB Draft, there has been a LOT already written and a LOT already said about Clark over the years. I won't rehash all of it, but he’s been the most well-known prospect for his age group for years and in the days leading up to the draft, he was being talked about as the potential first overall pick as a cost savings for the Pirates. Ultimately the Tigers grabbed him at third overall and paid him $7.7M, leading to more than $600K in savings for Detroit. As with the other two players selected before Wyatt Langford at fourth overall, the Tigers fan base will, unfortunately, be comparing Clark to Langford for years to come.
Clark is a potential double-plus hitter and already a double-plus runner. With that speed and plus arm, he also projects as a plus center fielder in the future. The main ding on Clark is the power tool, and ending up with a team that has a power-suppressing home park doesn’t help matters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Clark living in the 20+ home run area regularly nor would it surprise me if he’s more like a 10 home run guy. At the moment, his swing is flatter with a line drive approach rather than an uppercut launch angle approach and that probably doesn’t change. That tips the scales towards the under 20 home runs, but probably not by much with the amount of contact he should be making.
In the long run, Clark doesn’t tick the all important power box, which caps his Ceiling. In the short term, the draft and prospect pedigree coupled with every other tool being plus or better pushes him into Tier 1 for now. We’ll see if his personality and flair keep him there. If he can help bring a World Series trophy to Detroit, that sure would give him that upside. All in all, I get strong Pete Crow-Armstrong vibes when looking at Clark (it’s been said before by others but it’s so apt in so many ways from the baseball profile to the prospect fatigue leading into the draft), and I would treat Clark in the same way that we do for PCA from a Hobby perspective. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 9
tier 2
None
tier 3
Paul Wilson, P
Son of 8-year MLB vet Trevor Wilson, Paul is a lefty prep form Oregon who signed for an overslot $1.70MM in the 3rd round. At 6’3” he has great projection and is regularly into the mid-90’s already with a decently shaped two-seamer. He pairs that with a big sweeping curve that could be refined and developed into a plus pitch, and a change that also shows at least above average potential. It’s a great get for the Tigers as a project, but he has a ways to go with proving that his mechanics will remain sound over the course of a season. In the outings I saw him in from early 2023, his fastball looked a little flat with poor command, and his curve looked out of sync with his body. These are issues most preps have, and I only bring it up to say he won’t be a fast riser. I like him as a prospect, and there’s certainly a very nice ceiling, especially being a lefty. The hobby will care less about the lefty thing and prep pitchers do generally poorly at release, but if he’s on the cheaper side, I’m a buyer. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Max Anderson, 2B
The Tigers 2nd Max of the draft taken in the 2nd round, 45th overall, this one is very much the less physically gifted of the two. He doesn’t have a great body, and he likely doesn’t have the range for 2nd or the arm for 3rd, so it’s mostly likely he’ll mix in at those two positions and mostly play 1B. It puts a lot of pressure on his bat, and that’s really what got him picked so high. The Nebraska product has a low set-up designed to take high fastball to the opposite field, which he does with great frequency and affect. He’s a polished, excellent contact hitter with all-fields pop, leading the Big Ten in batting average while also tallying 43 XBH in 244 AB. That barrage continued in Low-A where he had 15 XBH in 128 AB. I question whether his power leads to 20 HR in the majors, but the odds are that if he finds a defensive home, there’s just enough thump to be an MLB regular as a pesky out-.350 OBP type. For the hobby this doesn’t seem like a star, but he has a pretty safe floor. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Jaden Hamm, P
Location, location, location. That’s the key to Hamm hitting his ceiling as a back-end starter. He was better with it this year at Middle Tennessee State, but there’s a length and effort in his delivery that will always make it difficult for him to be consistent. His 92-94 MPH fastball has excellent movement when it’s up in the zone, but hitters can really smash it when he misses his spots. His curve has great depth and has above average potential by itself, but plays up because of how he uses it with his fastball. Again though - it’s a looping offering so when he leaves it up, it gets hit hard. He also has a change-up that’ll always be behind his other two pitches. Although Hamm is only 6’1” he’s a good athlete, so there’s some expected growth in his fastball velocity and durability isn’t a primary concern. The 5th rounder will almost certainly be deployed as as starter to begin his pro career, but if it doesn’t work out in the rotation, with a little more consistency in his command it’s easy to see a middle-inning bullpen piece. For the hobby, even his ceiling isn’t exciting. He’s an easy fit into tier none. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Houston Astros
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Chase Jaworsky, SS
If you’re looking for a completely under-the-radar, potential 5-tool prep talent Jaworsky is your guy. Speed is his best asset but he also has some pop – he has a great contact-oriented swing, but should get to legit HR power with a bit more optimization. In the Astros system - my hopes are high that he gets there. They also saw enough in him to give him a $850k signing bonus – commensurate to early 3rd Round money. There’s just a little risk in his being older for the prep class and being from Colorado and not seeing the best competition makes him look better than he showed, but his profile is measurably hobby-positive.Positionally he’s more likely a 2B or CF than a SS, but as those are all important positions, it doesn’t matter for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Cam Fisher, OF
Fisher has massive raw power and hits the ball as hard as anyone – that was on full display at Charlotte this year. He finished third among all NCAA Division 1 with 30 HR. Though he does take his share of walks, it’s an extreme pull-heavy approach that leads to a lot of swing-and-miss, as evidenced by a 33 K% in his pro debut at Low-A. This has been the book on Fisher for his entire collegiate career dating back to his JuCo days in 2021 – he’s the age of a (young) senior this year. The hope is that the Astros can develop something of a trade-off in his approach that leads to just a below-average hit tool. If he does, there’s definite corner-OF MLB regular potential with Fisher. With as much power as he has there will definitely be interest in Fisher but it comes with a ton of risk, and he’ll already be 23 in June. I will not be in on him. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
tier none
None
Kansas City Royals
tier 1
None
tier 2
Blake Mitchell, C
The Royals took the best prep catcher in the draft at 8 overall. It was seen as a bit of a reach, but Mitchell was going in the first round and that’s where the Royals were picking, so they had to take him there or not get him. With that said, they were able to get almost a million-dollar discount on that slot which they then used for their second-round pick, Blake Wolters, a prep pitcher.
Mitchell’s calling cards are his power and his rocket arm. He has a very patient plate approach which allows him to translate his raw power to game power. He’ll go with the pitch on the outside of the zone as well as pull it when it’s in the sweet spot, showing that power to all parts of the field. While he has a good eye and shows patience that leads to a high amount of walks, he does have swing-and-miss concerns. That keeps his Ceiling from being too high, even as a top-10 draft pick. We didn’t get much of a sample size at the Complex, so I wouldn’t read too much into the underwhelming stat line he had in his first 13 pro games. Mitchell was a pretty good prep pitcher as well because his arm is so good. With that arm and an athletic body, he’ll have every opportunity to stick behind the plate even with some current deficiencies in other areas of the position.
Draft pedigree and Hobby friendly power put Mitchell into Tier 2 consideration, while swing and miss and position concerns from a Hobby perspective signal a note of caution to consider. As much as I like the profile, it’s hard to discount the overall track record of prep catchers, which is not good. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Spencer Nivens, OF
Nivens is a 5’11” scrappy OF with a want for power and a great feel for the strike zone. Taken in the 5th round from Missouri State, he was great in his sophomore year slashing 36 XBH in 226 AB’s. He showed some great exit velocities and when he’s looking to pull, can really hit it a long way. It’s always going to show, but it’s only average game power – he understands that his role is to get on base first and everything else after. That part of his game showed in his pro debut where he walked more than he struck out. The downside is that while his bat-to-ball skills were good enough to make the contact at Low-A, the quality was generally low. It’s fair to think that it was just an adjustment period from mid-major collegiate pitching, but there’s a trend of his not being able to hit good breaking pitches. That will obviously need to get cleaned up as he moves up levels. He has average speed, and while he played CF at Missouri State he’s likely to move to a corner. What I saw in Nivens is that he’s a really fun player to watch, and that matters for the hobby. He’s always playing hard and has this big leg kick and when he’s making that big pull-side uppercut swing, it’s pretty majestic. With development there’s a sum to these parts that exceeds his individual tools, so I think it’s a fairly high ceiling for the hobby. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
Hiro Wyatt, P
Wyatt was taken in the 3rd Round as a prep righty from Connecticut where he won Gatorade Player of the Year for the state, and signed for an overslot $1.5MM. It’s a smaller, thin frame that needs to fill out, so why such a strong commitment? Well, it’s a profile that’s moved up considerably in the last year - his fastball has always had great shape with both sink and run, but it also jumped up to the mid-90’s in his senior year. His mid-80’s slider is his best pitch – it’s a true wipeout offering. If those two pitches were the only considerations and his uptick in command sticks, he would blow through the low minors in short order. To truly perform well in the upper minors as a starter though, he probably needs to develop physically a little more and have a third pitch to throw with confidence. There’s always relief risk with a player of this size, and the Royals system hasn’t been friendly to the hobby for pitcher development lately. But there’s nothing tangible to say that Wyatt doesn’t have mid-rotation upside, which is a nice thing to say for a 19 YO. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Tier none
Coleman Picard, P
A 6th Round Pick out of Bryant University in Rhode Island, Picard has his work cut out for him to make it as a starter. He progressed nicely in his time in college and has a four-pitch mix that are commanded well and all usable, but none are above average right now. His cutter/slider is his best pitch, and pairs well with a mid-90’s fastball. However, he did have shoulder fatigue in his junior season and only threw 42 innings. That’s the red flag that freshest in our mind - that he may not have the durability to make it as a starter, and also lacks the plus stuff to make it in a meaningful bullpen role. Coming from a small school there’s also some fear that he was just the big fish in a small pond, though he did fair well in his 29 innings in the Cape in 2022-23. Hobby-wise it’s a high-risk low reward collegiate arm profile that’s easy to avoid. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3
Hunter Owen, P
The Royals fourth round pick out of Vandy is a physically imposing left-hander that can get his fastball up into the mid-90’s. He pairs that with promising breakers with both a curveball and slider. He’ll also throw a change-up, but that pitch needs the most work. Prior to his Junior year, Vandy was using Owen out of the bullpen. After getting the rotation nod, Owen started 12 games before getting shut down to arm/shoulder fatigue. That likely led to the Royals keeping him shut down post-draft, so we don’t have any pro reps to base opinions on. If he finished the college season pitching, he was likely a top 50 pick rather than going after pick 100. Given his potential health concerns, some command issues, and prior time spent in the pen, Owen has that all too concerning bullpen risk. If all goes right, there’s a mid-rotation starter that is in that Tier 2/Tier 3 neighborhood. At the moment, there’s not much we can hang our hat on and the risk is relatively high, leading me to push Owen into Tier None. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Carson Roccaforte, OF
The 66th overall pick, the Royals got over $200K discount when taking Roccaforte a bit higher than was expected. Roccaforte is a collection of average to above average tools that can provide good center field defense but not really wow you in any aspect of his game. He has a strong plate approach with the ability to put the bat on the ball a lot. The batted ball data leading into the draft was talked up quite a bit with high ev’s and hard hit rates, but the flat swing at the moment leads to more line drive contact than over-the-fence power. A full season of pro ball should give us a better idea if he can be an impact bat. That impact more than likely comes in the form of a high batting average and putting the ball in play rather than above-average or better power. There’s some speed on the base paths as well highlighted by stealing four bases in his first ever professional game.
Roccaforte looks like he could end up as that fourth/fifth outfielder type with a chance at an everyday role as a .275-ish hitter with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases at his peak on a second-division team. That’s a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None ranking. Given the lack of power, it tips the scales towards Tier None. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Los Angeles Angels
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
Tier 3
Alberto Rios, OF
A one year wonder in college, Rios took home Pac-12 (RIP) Player of the Year honors after a monster season at Stanford. He spent the majority of his time in college in the outfield with a few games at catcher sprinkled in. Unexpectedly, when the Angels drafted him in the third round, he was announced as a third baseman. The Angels have had him in left field (or DH) for all of his minor league games post-draft. This may be because they want to get him acclimated to a position switch during the off-season, or it simply may have been a mistake on the announcement. Defense is not his strong suit, even with a potentially plus arm, so he’s going to have to prove his worth on the offensive side of the equation.
With the bat, Rios had strong underlying data at Stanford with plus average exit velocity, 90th percentile exit velocity, and barrel rate. He didn’t chase much either, and probably the only concern was a slightly below average contact rate. His compact swing is more geared towards line drives and going with the ball rather than trying to pull everything over the outfield wall. With that said, he’s well built and has decent raw strength which should translate into that 20-ish home run, average to above average power potential. His speed falls into that average to above average category as well. He probably gets into that 10 - 20 range with full playing time.
Even with a rough pro ball stat-line to start his career, I’m mostly putting that to the side and maintaining a relatively positive outlook on Rios. He never played more than 25 college and summer league games combined prior to 2023 and then got to one game short of 100 games in 2023. I’m sure fatigue had a large part to play in his rough pro debut. A huge 2023 college season coupled with a useful everyday starter with above average offensive tools across the board gets him into my Tier 3. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Joe Redfield, OF
Signing for an underslot 472k in the 4th round, Redfield had a highly successful season with Sam Houston State where he hit over .400 as their lead-off hitter. He has wide, low setup and doesn’t engage his lower half for power – he’s really only looking to use his exceptionally quick hands to slap it into the outfield. That said, he did get to 15 HR, mainly on mistakes inside that he pulled over the fence, as a mature player like this should do. Still, I truly think Redfield is closer to a punch-and-Judy type at the next level. With his above-average speed and ability to play CF, it could work all the way to the majors – I could see him being a 4th OF fairly easily. Hobby-wise, he’s a hit/speed prospect in a bad system for development, so there’s just not a lot of helium to be had. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3
Camden Minacci, P
I think Minacci is a relief pitcher all the way because of so much effort and violence in his delivery, but he has experience pitching against the highest of collegiate competition and in the highest leverage situations as the closer at Wake Forest. He certainly has the intensity and drive to keep doing it on pro ball, and he should be one of the first draftees to reach the majors. However, he’s more likely a set-up man than a closer in the pro ranks. His fastball can get up to the high-90’s with good shape, but he usually works in the 93-95 range. His slider is not commanded as well, but it’s a wipe-out pitch with some intense vertical break. With development time in the minors expected to be short, I don’t think he’ll mess around much with his pitches to get to better command, but a few upticks in velo could come. There’s just not much upside for the hobby with Minacci, he’s simply the definition of high-floor / low-ceiling. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 2
Chris Clark, P
The Angels, um, don’t generally draft how you want them to for the hobby, and Clark unfortunately fits that. The big 6’4” 5th Round pick from Harvard certainly has power-pitcher potential – he was up to 98 at the Draft Combine. But in his first year as a starter at Harvard he wasn’t working nearly that high. While his secondaries worked well against Ivy League opponents, none of them are really average pitches right now. His command, overall, is also below average. The best bet to some sort of hobby relevance is that he streamlines his repertoire and pitch shapes and gets enough confidence in his FB to pump high 90’s in a relief role. It’s a lot to hope for in the Angels development system. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Los Angeles Dodgers
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
Tier 3
Kendall George, OF
OK, I do think the Dodgers know what they’re doing, and there’s no doubting George has top-of-the-scale speed and it’ll play on the base-paths and in the field. But if I’m making my first pick in the draft at 36th overall, I’d like my prep outfielder to have a few more tools. Signed for an underslot $1.85MM, he’s only 5`10 and while he’s added some muscle, he’ll likely need to add more to be able to handle the higher velocity that he’ll see with regularity in higher levels of pro ball. His second best tool is his hit, and he has a good swing for contact and makes good swing decisions. He tries to put the ball on the ground and it works with his speed, but there’s no harm hitting the ball on the ground harder than he is now. His swing isn’t geared for power anyway, but he has less raw pop in his bat than any other prep taken in the first 5 rounds of the draft. He also has a below average arm, but it’s not bad enough to keep him out of CF where, as you’d expect for a player with his speed, he’s pretty great at running down balls.
For the hobby as the Dodgers first-round pick there will definitely be some strong interest in George, but it’s tough to see a path to being more than a mediocre hobby asset as a whole. My write-up is harsh here, but he did already steal 17 bags in his first 28 pro games with a .458 OBP and reach Low-A, so he’s absolutely performing better than expected so far. So…I can’t bring myself to push him to Tier None even though my assessment says he should. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Joe Vetrano, 1B
A prototypical big, power-hitting 1B from Boston College, taken in the 5th round. He has a wide stance with a heavy load into his back leg that lets him use his natural strength to get to his above-average game power. There’s even more raw juice though, as he employs a more patient, like drive approach in games. He does swing and miss quite a bit, and that’s his biggest concern as a prospect, but I think it’s coachable. A former two-way player, he’s got the arm for 3B and moves well enough to play there, but he’s seen as a 1B-only prospect and that puts some pressure on his bat getting to more of his thump. For the hobby, in the Dodgers market, there’s enough power potential to have a big dream of a 30+ HR bat that’ll play as an above-average hobby asset, but there’s quite a ways to go to say he’ll hit enough. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
Dylan Campbell, OF
A three-year starter at Texas that had a 38-game hitting streak this year, Campbell was taken in the compensatory 4th round. He’s a stocky, athletic OF with a prototype RF cannon. He has exceptional bat-to-ball skills and hits the ball hard with regularity, but there’s room for improvement yet because he chases outside the zone quite a bit. It’s not swing-and-miss that’s affected by this, but it does hurt his ability to tap into his power, which is at least an average asset. He has a simple setup but sometimes doesn’t engage his lower half well (even when it’s not a two-strike approach) - if he cleans that up it’s possible he gets to even more game power. There’s a lot to like for the hobby here, and not a ton of risk. It’s possible his tendencies to chase lead to more swing-and-miss or really poor quality of contact at higher levels, but I like the Dodgers to develop that aspect in the positive rather than negative. I think it’s a 70th% outcome of an above-average MLB regular with 15-20 HR and a good average. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
Tier none
Brady Smith, P
Smith is only in Tier None because while he’s 6’2” but he has a very light frame and a long way to go physically. Taking the Tennessee prep righty was an excellent get for the Dodgers in the 3rd round, 95th overall. His fastball is fairly flat and generally sits in the low 90’s, but it works because of the deception in his delivery – the progress of that pitch seems to be a developmental tentpole to me. His curve, at its best, is a bugs-bunny offering and his slider also has plus potential, but both have some command inconsistencies. Those inconsistencies, to me, are just a result of his lack of a full-time baseball commitment – his delivery is as smooth as they come. I don’t think command will be much of an issue as he acclimates and works with professional coaching. Back to the fastball - if that gets to be an above-average or better pitch, there’s a good shot Smith can be a starter. If not, there’s an equally good shot he’s a solid bullpen piece. As with most things, the truth of his ceiling probably lies somewhere in the middle, which makes him not rank among the best prep pitchers in this class for the hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Wyatt Crowell, P
Crowell is a lefty reliever who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was a really good one at Florida State in 2022, pairing a low-90’s fastball with a great slider from a low three-quarters arm slot. He’s smaller-statured but has an easy delivery, so if he makes a full recovery from injury there’s a good likelihood that he’ll become a solid bullpen piece. There really shouldn’t be any hobby interest though, outside Dodgers collectors. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 1
Miami Marlins
tier 1
None
tier 2
Noble Meyer, P
The top right-handed prep pitcher in the draft got drafted at 10th overall and ended up in what has recently become one of the best pitching development orgs with Miami. He signed for close to $1MM under slot, allowing the Marlins the flexibility to sign the best left-handed prep pitcher in the draft 25 picks later in Thomas White. Even if I’m not a fan of the rest of their draft, if either or both of these picks meet their projections, this will be a hugely successful draft.
As our Director of Draft Content, Tyler Jennings, said leading into the draft, Meyer’s upside is immense. There’s a four-pitch mix with all of them potentially being plus pitches. He starts with a four seam fastball in the mid 90’s that gets plenty of swing and miss as well as weak contact. His main secondary is a tight slider with a ton of promise although I saw him leave it in the zone way too much in his Single-A debut. Same thing with the curveball, he wasn’t throwing it as much as the slider, but it had a lot more depth to it and he was able to get it down in the zone better. I saw him throw one change-up and it was a really nice arm side fading pitch that started in the zone and dove out of it for a swing and miss. The slider location was a concern, and the fastball had inconsistent location, but this was an 18 year old getting his feet wet more than showing his true talent.
Prep pitchers are the riskiest of propositions in the prospect world, so with the Hobby it’s definitely a buyer beware situation. On the other hand, Meyer has all the pieces to put it together to go along with the draft pedigree and a strong pitching dev organization. Even though Miami is that strong pitching dev organization, they aren’t the most collectable team, so Meyer doesn’t get a team collectability bump like he would in the Dodgers or Yankees system. The Ceiling is high, the Risk is high. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 9
Tier 3
Kemp Alderman, OF
Alderman was the Marlins’ second-round pick and was famous for his raw power and eye-popping exit velocities in college. He exceeded 110 MPH on four separate occasions in the SAME game. Metal bats and all that, but at the MLB level that has been done just twice in the Statcast era - once by Aaron Judge and once by Giancarlo Stanton.
The main issue with Alderman, as you might expect from a prodigious power bat like this that isn’t taken at the top of the draft, is the hit tool. He strikes out a lot and in just 34 pro games he has a strikeout rate of 29%. Not surprisingly, he struggles with spin, looking to swing out of his shoes at everything. He’s got a big-time arm, so he should be able to play either corner outfield position. On the bigger side at 6’3” and 250 pounds, he’s not the greatest runner and is more of the chip in steals type. Alderman looks to be an even more extreme version of fellow Marlins masher Peyton Burdick (a.k.a. the Avian Phallic). Alderman’s raw power borders on elite and based on that alone, he gets into Tier 3 with a huge buyer beware warning with the hit tool challenges. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
tier none
Jake DeLeo, OF
DeLeo is an older 6th round junior from Georgia Tech who doesn’t have any tools that figure to be better than above average in the professional ranks. He’s got good speed and was used at the top of the Yellow Jackets lineup, but it’s not good enough to project in CF or as a major base stealing threat. He has a decent hit tool but it’s more of a knack for finding the barrel with an aggressive approach – he’s not the patient, mature all-fields hitter you'd like to see from a player of his age. As a power ceiling he had an 110 MPH exit velo ball at the Draft Combine – there’s plenty of game power if he gets his pitch. However, it’s more based on his physical strength than natural bat speed, and with that aggressive approach he can be on the easy side to pitch around, as was evident at the tail end of his pro debut at Low-A when he went 5 for his final 38 AB’s. DeLeo seems like he at least won’t be a fast riser and will already be 23 in May - something the hobby will catch on to quickly as they look for a sleeper. He may make the majors as a power-centric 4th OF-type, but it’s not likely to be in the near future. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Andrew Lindsey, P
The first thing I’ll point out with Lindsey is that he’s already 24. He was an underslot 5th round senior sign that game back to college ball at Tennessee this year after taking a year off. He was great as a reliever, and even worked his way into their rotation for 9 starts. He has a sinker that he can pump into the high 90’s, though a pitch of that type needs to be elite shape and command for it to be effective at the next level. It has that potential, but it’s not there yet. He also throws a low-90s power slider and a curve, both of which are near-average. Lindsey has stuff that plays well in the bullpen, and that’s almost certainly where he ends up even though he’ll begin his pro career as a starter. There just needs to be a little bit of growth in all aspects of his game to make it to the majors as a middle reliever, which is a 70th% outcome. Hobby wise there are just so many negatives - age, relief risk, lack of plus pitches. Not a great name in this arena. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 2
Emmett Olson, P
The Marlins’ underslot 4th rounder, Olson was Nebraska’s best pitcher this year. It’s strictly a pitchability lefty profile though - he didn’t have great K numbers and he only has one out pitch. It’s a doozy of a traditional slider that at it’s best has sharp bite that can be really tough on lefties. His low-90’s fastball does not have good shape and gets hit fairly hard, and his other secondary offerings are below average or worse at this time. He does have great presence on the mound, and showed the moxie to pitch through adversity – that matters for teams in a real life sense. While he worked his way into Nebraska’s starting rotation in mid-2022, he was never a workhorse and does have experience in relief –I think that’s his best path forward to make it to the majors. But he’ll begin his pro career in a rotation, and his ceiling is a back-end starter, with no real floor. Of course profiles change, but right now for the hobby, Olson isn’t a player I’d be excited about. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Brock Vradenburg, 1B
A 6’7” and 230 pound first baseman typically profiles as a power bat, but occasionally we see the opposite and that is the case here with Vradenburg. The hit tool has been more of his calling card, putting the bat on the ball a lot. In his final season in college, he walked more than he struck out. In the 34 games he got of Single-A ball post-draft, while he maintained a strong walk rate, the strikeouts were not great. The long levers are a concern, and not only in the strikeout department, but in the batted ball profile. The raw power is there when looking at the underlying data, but he’s not getting to it in game as much as he needs to be an impact bat at one of the positions with the highest offensive bar. In those 34 Single-A games, he had a ground ball rate of almost 60% and a sub-20% fly ball rate. He’s not a bad runner, but he’s obviously no burner, and with a ground ball rate that high, being a fast runner is almost a requirement. In a system devoid of first base talent, Vradenburg should get a ton of opportunity. That gives him some real baseball viability, and if his batted ball profile ever develops to engage his physical power, then there may end up being some Hobby viability. Until then, I’m not interested. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Milwaukee Brewers
tier 1
None
tier 2
Eric Bitonti, SS
As a Brewers fan I loved the 3rd round selection of Bitonti – he signed for an overslot $1.75MM bonus. A big, 6`4” prep form California, Bitonti has physical skills for days – so much that he’s not even a 100% lock to move off of SS. There’s been no shortage of eyes on him over the years, and that reveals some inconsistency in performance against higher competition. Still, I saw him triple off of Zander Mueth in a PDP game, so it’s really just a matter of being consistent from game-to-game, which will let his massive raw power play. Bitonti’s 12-game debut really showed a microcosm of his inconsistency - 4 XBH in his first 7 games, then 0 hits and 8 K in his last 5 games. He’s not fast, but considering his defensive chops that’s less important.
For Bitonti it’ll really just be about finding the groove, getting his hit tool to being below-average or better. If he does, he’ll be an MLB regular with some major power potential. He’s a good name for the hobby, but as you can see, I think there’s quite a bit of risk in his profile. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Mike Boeve, 3B
Boeve, the Brewers 2nd round pick, might have a hit tool we’re underselling as above average because he only played in the Summit League at Nebraska-Omaha. It’s his only tool that grades as better than average, but it’s a great line-drive drive swing and that he pairs with an all-fields approach at the plate that carried over to his pro debut, where he saw action all the up at High-A. He has some pop to his pull side but he’s not truly hunting long-balls. There are defensive concerns and fear he may end up in left or 1B because his arm isn’t great. That would knock him down a bit, especially for the hobby, because we like our LF/1B types with plus power. Still, I think there’s a solid floor and with continued hard work defensively to buoy his value, a bat that’ll play in the majors relatively soon. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
Tier none
Jason Woodward, P
Woodward is already a success as a two-time cancer survivor. Everything he does on the professional baseball field is just a bonus. Now, it’d be great if the Brewers found a completely under-the-radar piece to grow in their pitching lab (no media outlets really had him on their board on draft day), but he also had Tommy John surgery in March so that development will be arrested until late 2024. In fact, it’s tough to know what kind of pitcher will be. He was sitting 92-94 with his fastball in his few innings with FGCU this year, but between everything he only threw 127 innings in three years of collegiate ball. He’s more likely a reliever than a starter moving forward, so his hobby significance isn’t great even though his story has potential to be. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Minnesota Twins
tier 1
None
tier 2
Brandon Winokur, OF
A lean, 6`5” California prep, Winokur’s best tool is his plus speed, and obviously with that size the dream is power projection. The Twins saw that too, taking him in the 3rth round and signing him to an overslot $1.5MM bonus. Right now, he needs to find constancy but at his best there’s a quick-to-the-ball line drive approach in his swing, so there’s plenty to work with in getting to game power as his body fills out. Though he did strike out a fair amount in his pro debut, he had 9 XBH in 17 games, including 4 HR – so it’s fair to say the power is already showing. Before we call him a 5-Tool talent, I think there’s work to do with his hit tool in general, and specifically his aggressive approach - I like to see players of his size show me before we flippantly throw that 5-Tool label out there. But the other tools are there. He might stick in CF, or move to right where he fits the modern athletic-RF mold well. If Winokur is a hobby-sleeper, sign me up. But I think everyone will be on the overall talent here, and it's a fantastic power/speed ceiling to dream on. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
Charlee Soto, P
A big 6`5” prep righty from Florida taken 34th overall in the CB-A round, Soto has top of the rotation ceiling. It’s easy to see – with a running fastball that’s already working at 95-97 that pairs well with a hard,sharp down-breaking slider and a split/change that’s has some nice tumbling action, he has three pitches that we can already see as having above average or better projection. He does have some synch issues in his delivery and his command is inconsistent, but he’s also still growing into his body – he won’t be 19 until late August. This power pitcher profile is a great one for the hobby, and the Twins’ pitching development is strong. If you’re considering going in on any prep arms and you don’t want to pay Noble Meyer prices, Soto’s your guy - I think his ceiling is the same. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 9
Luke Keaschall, 2B
Taken in the 2nd round from Arizona State, Keaschall signed to and underslot $1.5MM. He has an excellent hit tool already, but there’s a bit of refinement yet to be had. While he has no issues putting the ball into play, there’s enough aggression that it affects his quality of contact. That didn’t catch up to him in his debut, where he made it to High-A and sported an aggregate .414 OBP. It also helps his cause that he has above average speed. He has average power, mostly to the pull side, but it plays less often in games because he truly has an all-fields approach. I think he’s a good bet to stick at 2B - he’s a former SS who’s arm just isn’t good enough to make it there as a pro, but he could also make it as a LF. There’s nothing super-exciting about Keaschall’s hobby outlook (unless a likely .350 OBP, 15 HR/15 SB is your jam), but he also has a very high floor and could end up as an above-average MLB regular. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
None
tier none
Dylan Questad, P
Questad is from a few towns away from me here in southeast Wisconsin, and a colleague’s son played with him. So I’m mentally invested in seeing how he does. He’s not completely short of stature but his body lacks the typical projectability of a future starter. He also has quite a bit of effort in his delivery. Those are big negatives, but bear with me here. His fastball which topped out at 98 is his best pitch at present, but his curveball and slider also have potential to be at least above average. That’s a pretty nice mix to dream on that could land him in a rotation someday. There’s almost no floor for prep pitchers in general, and to add onto it relief risk is quite obvious with Questad – but the 5th Rounder also has a mid-rotation ceiling and landed in a good organization to get him there. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5
Tanner Hall, P
Drafted in the 4th round out of Southern Mississippi, Hall is a back-end innings eater that provides nice real baseball value but not a ton of Hobby value. Hall is currently a two-pitch guy with a low-90’s sinker and a plus change-up. His third pitch at the moment is a seldom-used slider - either this pitch or something new needs to become a better and more frequent offering to complete the starting pitching arsenal. Hall’s approach is to stay at the bottom of the zone and get swings and misses on the change-up or ground balls with the sinker.
As much as I love a sexy change-up like Hall has, these profiles tend to dominate the lower levels of the minors and then struggle against MLB hitters. Even more so when they are facing MLB hitters multiple times through a line up, which is why an effective third pitch is important for Hall to cement his role in a rotation. Hall soaked up a ton of innings in college, so it’s no surprise the Twins put him on the shelf post-draft. Until we get to see him in 2024, we won’t know how that third pitch is coming along. There’s Tier 3 upside on the strength of the change-up alone, but until we see some pro reps, he’s a Tier None pitcher for me. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
New York Mets
tier 1
Colin Houck, SS
Man I love this profile. Everything about Houck is confident - he has smooth actions both at the plate and in the field, and clear understanding of the cadence of the game. A power conference D1-prospect as quarterback, he’s just now converting to baseball full time as the Mets took him at the tail end of the 1st round. It’s that signability that made him fall that far – his talent is fantastic. His defense and arm are advanced for his age and he’s a natural SS that will be given every chance to stay there. His speed is only average right now, but could tick up a little as he grows into his body. His swing is great – he has an easy set-up that generates lots of hard contact by just taking what’s given to him. They’re mostly liners now, but with his athletic acumen could easily learn how to generate more loft – so his power potential is also above average.
The hobby’s going to go nuts over Houck in the same way as in 2019 folks went nuts over Corbin Carroll, kind of in a IYKYK way. He’s weighted in the New York market, he has the newly-full time baseball bonus, and the 5-tool bonus. There’s simply no negative boxes to tick – hobby monster incoming. I think he’s more of a deluxe sum-of-the-parts, Corey Seager-ish type ceiling than a single category monster. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9
tier 2
None
tier 3
AJ Ewing, SS
Taken in the 4th Round Comp, Ewing is a prep from Ohio who was an Alabama commit. He’s on the smaller side but he has the arm and range to play SS, though in his pro debut he was deployed as a swiss army knife. His body still has a lot of maturation to come but he already has excellent bat speed – it’s compact with a plane for power. He makes loud contact on fastballs with consistency. He also has the patience and maturity to find his pitch, though he’s still learning how to hit quality breaking balls well – though the same could be said for many preps with limited high-level exposure. He’s a bit of a wild card but for the hobby I love Ewing’s ceiling, though with his frame it’s probably sub-30 HR regardless of how his hit tool comes out. I’m a buyer, but I expect him to be a slow burn, likely heading to the Complex in 2024 to start. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Wyatt Hudepohl, P
After transferring from Kentucky to UNC-Charlotte where he could work as a starter, Hudepohl showed he has what it takes to develop as a SP, ending up on the top 10 NCAA Division 1 strikeout leaderboard. His best pitch is a power curve that he uses extensively as an out pitch, and it has plus potential. His mid-90’s fastball and other secondaries are all a work in progress and tend to be hit quite hard. He showed surprising command for a first-time collegiate starter though, and that’s what really bumped him into the 4th Round. It will be most important for Hudepohl to refine his fastball to be more effective - if he does there’s the floor of a MLB reliever and if his other secondaries tick up, a workhorse innings-eater type starter with high-K upside. There’s a long way to go to actually projecting that though for the hobby. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Nolan McLean, P
I know there’s two-way potential, but I think there’s such a small percentage of his becoming a MLB-quality hitter that I’m disregarding it here. Taken in the 3rd round from Oklahoma State, McLean’s focus has been divided for a long time. First with football, then with the two-way thing. It leaves him developmentally further behind many other pitchers of his age, but there’s a lot of potential in his ceiling. His fastball has good shape and up to 98 at its best, and he also has a slider and curve that can be quality offerings. But which will end as truly plus pitches? We don’t really know because his command has a long way to go. It’s less of a long path if the Mets work him as a relief arm the whole way where he could end up as a closer, but that’s, uh, not what we want for the hobby. There’s at least mid-rotation upside with proper development, but man does it seem like a long way off. That hurts in the eyes of the hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Kade Morris, P
At 6’3” with a very straightforward, clean delivery, Morris has the makings of a future starter with some development. The righty from Nevada really knows how to attack hitters, though his execution is sometimes lacking. He has a true starter’s repertoire with a bag of 5 pitches. His best pitch is a sweeper that generates plenty of whiffs, and though his fastball is sometimes flat and needs refinements, it’s up to 96. Both of those pitches have above average potential. It’s very important that he continues to show good poise on the mound, because while his mechanics are smooth, it’s also really easy for hitters to pick up. But what he did was good enough to get him drafted in the 3rd round, so there’s real hope the Mets think he develops more consistency in his command, which would make him a mid-rotation piece. If not, he could pare down his offerings, cut his fastball usage, and really be a high-leverage asset out of the bullpen. For the hobby this is a risky profile with a middling ceiling, so it’ll mostly be Mets collectors chasing him. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Zach Thornton, P
Lefty 5th rounder taken from Grand Canyon, Thornton is a quintessential pitchability lefty. He has a pair of low-90’s fastballs that he mixes with a curve, slider, change and a developing cutter. He also has the ability to alter his arm angle to change his pitch shape – none of these pitches are better than average, nor do they need to be. Not when nobody knows what’s coming and he has an excellent command of everything. He’ll never be a high-K type, but he could easily hit a back-end starter ceiling. It’s just a matter of some development in a few of those pitches as go-to offerings, which is a predictable path. For the hobby Thornton isn’t overly interesting for collectors at large, but Mets’ collectors looking for an early buy-in on a major league arm should be interested. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4
Jack Wenninger, P
Wenninger showed a flash of excellence in the MLB Draft League by throwing an immaculate inning. That was enough for the Mets to take a chance on the Illinois product in the 6th Round. Wenninger has a large, 6’4” frame and an easy delivery. Those are the positives. The downside is that he relies on just two pitches right now, and his change is more complimentary to his fastball than a true out pitch. Developing a third pitch from (basically) scratch sets him down a longer development road, but if he does there is projectability to be a starter. While his fastball starts in the mid-90’s, he loses velocity and command as he goes deeper into games. In total, this is a higher risk profile than most college arms, but one that’s more likely to remain a starter than most. There shouldn’t be much hobby interest here. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Austin Troesser, P
Taken in the compensatory 4th Round, Troesser is a 6’3” righty reliever from Missouri who signed for an underslot bonus. Troesser has a mid-90’s fastball that was up to 98 that he pairs with a low-80’s slider. He was mainly a middling multi-inning reliever but made a few spot starts with good results, so there’s a small chance with the right development he could be a back-end starter. I think this pick is more of a complete lottery ticket that also helped the Mets sign AJ Ewing. He doesn’t even have the floor as a MLB middle reliever - any path to the majors will take a lot of work and time. Pretty safe to ignore him for the hobby, unless you’re a staunch believer in the Mets’ player development. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 2
New York Yankees
tier 1
tier 2
Tier 3
Roc Riggio, 2B
A high school teammate of Max Muncy, Riggio eschewed the MLB to go play at Oklahoma State after being selected by the Brewers in the 11th round of the 2021 MLB Draft. Fast forward to 2023 and Riggio gets selected in the 4th round by the Yankees off of a strong Sophomore season where he popped 18 home runs while hitting .335.
As a shorter second baseman at 5’9” with above average pop, you will see the Dustin Pedroia comp repeatedly with Riggio. The hit tool is where it doesn’t quite line up, and probably the speed as well. Pedroia at his peak was a 20+ stolen base guy and he was a high OBP guy that kept the strikeouts low. Riggio is more like a 10 stolen base guy and he has some strikeout and contact concerns that Pedroia did not.
Putting the comp conversation aside, Riggio is a rock solid second base prospect that should hit around league average with 20+ home run potential, especially if he sticks with the Yankees and their short porch. Add in the Yankees’ collectability, Riggio’s swagger and personality, and a memorable name (yes, sometimes these things actually matter in the Hobby), and he’s easily a Tier 3 player in this product. I wouldn’t be surprised if some people decide to chase him hard and his prices go a bit bananas and into Tier 2 territory. I would be selling into that demand all day long if it does materialize. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
tier none
Oakland Athletics
tier 1
None
tier 2
Jacob Wilson, SS
It’s not lazy to say it’s likely I think he just becomes a version of his dad with a better hit tool, is it? Since that’s what everyone is saying? I think it’s truly Occam's razor here. The 6th overall pick this year and the son of the 12-year MLB vet Jack Wilson, Jacob has freakish bat-to-ball skills. Though he was only playing in the WAC at Grand Canyon, he only struck out 5 times in 217 plate appearances. Not a typo. 5 times. He went out in his pro debut (up to High-A) and proved it wasn’t a fluke, with a sub 10 K% in 111 PA. He has a feel for the barrel too, landing in the Top 10 in NCAA Division 1 in batting average. Any HR power he gets is because it was a well-barreled line drive - it’s really not a part of his game. He lacks speed to be a threat on the basepaths, and there’s thought that even though his glove and arm are above average, that lack of range may eventually push him to 3B. I always say defense doesn’t matter much for the hobby, but without power or speed, staying at SS would go a long way toward maintaining hobby relevance. His hit tool will carry him to the majors as soon as 2024, and he has as high of a floor as anyone in this release. But he definitely lacks a hobby ceiling, for being such a high first round pick. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
None
tier none
Jonah Cox, OF
Cox has plus speed and worked his way to a Division 1 program in Oral Roberts this year, where he continued to show improvements while getting his feet wet in CF. Taken in the 6th round, there’s a possibility that he continues improving a profile that saw a 47-game hitting streak this year. His speed is just a base-stealing weapon right now, but there’s hope it eventually lets him stick in CF despite a below-average arm. At the plate he’s a slasher and built for contact, but he has some nice bat speed, so his power plays well enough to be below-average. There’s some question about his hit tool in total because he hasn’t seen a lot of the quality of pitchers that he’ll see in pro ball, but he’s at least average in that regard. It’s a rising profile for sure, though I see it as a middling ceiling for the hobby and not a great market to land in. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Cole Miller, P
Miller is a 6`6” California prep righty that was taken in the 4th round and signed for an overslot $1MM. The son of a former pro football player, it’s a nice athletic frame to build on and a delivery that’s pretty smooth. His mid-90’s fastball has some armside run and he has a decent feel for commanding it up in the zone to righties. His second best pitch is a slider that’s improving, and he also has a change that he mostly throws to lefties. For the hobby you could do far worse than a young arm with as much projectability as Miller has, and it’s tangible upside with at least two of his pitches. There’s a bit of a road ahead, but improvements to his fringy command and predictable development to all his offerings would lead to high-K mid-rotation upside. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Nathan Dettmer, P
The 5th Rounder from Texas A&M stands tall on the mound at 6’4”, but he doesn’t exactly have the easy, repeatable delivery you like to see in a SP prospect of his stature. He throws two different fastballs of similar mid-90’s velocity, and he maintains it deep into games. However, those fastballs really got hit hard this year, because he struggled with command. His best pitch is a mid-80’s slider that is above-average at present, but it’s easy to lay off when he’s not locating those fastballs. What Dettmer needs more than anything is a return to form on command and refinement in the pitch shape of his fastballs. He was a down arrow around draft time – we’ll see if he can make those mechanical changes. But if it all comes together there is a mid-rotation ceiling to dream on. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Philadelphia Phillies
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Tayshaun Walton, OF
A product of prep baseball powerhouse IMG Academy in Florida, Tjayy has a linebacker-like 6`3” frame with more to build into. As you can imagine, there is massive power potential, but right now his swing isn’t geared for it. He instead uses his electric bat speed to drive the ball very hard to all fields with little effort. There’s not even much swing-and-miss concern despite his size, though to truly get to more power it’s fair to think there may be a trade-off in that regard. There shouldn’t be a ton of speed as he fills out, but he’s a really good athlete that should easily stick in the OF. It's a beautiful hobby profile to dream on as sleeper – likely a cheaper buy-in at release as a 4th Round pick that’s not showing power at present but with development could absolutely get there? I’m certainly making that bet. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Devin Saltiban, OF
As a 3rd round prep from Hawaii whose best asset is his above-average speed, there’s a bit of sleeper appeal here. Since he was a late riser this could be off, and video is limited, but I saw a hitter who sells out a bit to make contact at the expense of his power. He swings a lot, but when he gets what he’s looking for there is some good natural power to be had, as he showed in the MLB Draft league. With his more advanced bat–to-ball skills I’m more eager to see how he does with a Low-A assignment to see if there’s enough natural quality of contact to be had against better pitching than he’s ever seen before. If there is, it’s easy to someday see an everyday MLB outfielder of some ilk, even if his ceiling isn’t fully established. Without a plus tool in his bag his hobby ceiling isn’t extraordinary, but we’ve seen profiles like this end up just fine. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
tier none
None
Pittsburgh Pirates
tier 1
Paul Skenes, P
The best pitcher in the draft and regularly drawing Stephen Strasburg comparisons, Skenes absolutely dominated college baseball in 2023 for LSU by leading them to the Championship and taking home the Most Outstanding Player (MOP) award. He was a finalist for the Golden Spikes award as well, which ended up going to his teammate Dylan Crews. He ended up beating out Crews when it came to the draft, as Skenes went as the first overall pick while Crews went second overall.
Skenes has a three-pitch arsenal although he primarily was using a fastball/slider approach in college. The fastball is a double-plus monster typically in the 98 - 100 mph range that can touch 102 mph. It often has some arm-side run just to make it that much more difficult to hit. In addition, he’s got the physicality to maintain this velocity all the way through his starts. His slider will be in the 84 - 90 mph range and most often he is throwing the hard, gyro variety. It works so well because of how it tunnels with the fastball and simply put, the hitters are so geared up for the fastball that the slider tends to lock them up. His third pitch is an arm-side fading change-up that drops off the table, although he uses it infrequently. It still grades out as a plus pitch and it makes the arsenal so effective to have that whenever he needs to pull it out.
Skenes has the size and the arsenal to be a future SP1 ace. He has the draft pedigree, and potentially the proximity as he could be pitching in the big leagues in 2024, to cement his Tier 1 status in this product. I don’t say this often given the pitching prospect stigma, but I would not hesitate to spend my Hobby dollars on Skenes. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 10
tier 2
None
tier 3
Zander Mueth, P
I love Mueth’s mix, and at a rail-thin 6’6”, there’s projection to dream on. Taken in the CB-B round 67th overall, he signed for an overslot $1.8MM. The prep righty from Illinois attacks from a low-effort three-quarter delivery. That allows the shape of his fastball to have ideal run and sink – and it’s already into the mid-90’s. His slider has great horizontal movement as well and when he learns to command it better, watch out. Both of those pitches easily have plus potential. He uses his change up more than his slider right now because he has better command of it than his slider – it also could end up average or better. When I watched Mueth I saw a kid who really knows how to attack hitters – he just needs a little better feel, more development with his slider, and predictable fastball growth. With prep pitchers, the risk is always high but with Mueth, his ceiling is equal. I think he has better than mid-rotation upside. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Garret Forrester, 1B
Taken in the 3rd round and signed to an underslot deal, Forrester has a polished above-average hit tool. The Oregon State product started for three years with the Beavers, almost all at 1B, but he played 3B in his brief pro debut – so we’ll see. He’s has a 6’1” husky build but it’s not a bad body, though there’s no speed to be had. It’s really his offensive skillset that got him drafted so high. He has some nice natural power that tracks to end up as league average or a hair above, and his bat-to-ball skill will let him get to it easily. He’s truly a patient hitter with a nice feel for the barrel and willing to take what’s given to him to all fields. There’s not much chase or swing-and-miss either. Hobby-wise, his limited profile leaves him with a middling ceiling, but he’s more likely to get there than most college bats. The downside is that he ends up as a bit of a punchless 1B, which would hamper his ability to find AB’s in a MLB lineup. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Carlson Reed, P
Reed is a well built 6’4” that showed out as one of the best relief arms in the country at West Virginia in 2023. His sweeper & change are both excellent pitches already – they both generate tons of swing and miss, but he can’t get away with just those two pitches in pro ball. That’s the issue. His fastball velocity at 94-96 does compliment his offspeed well, but his command of that pitch is quite poor. That will need to improve markedly to have a chance as a starter, or improve somewhat to be a good relief arm in the majors. My guess is the Pirates hope to fast track him in the latter category, and that’s how I’ll evaluate him for the hobby. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2
Patrick Reilly, P
As a product of Vanderbilt, Reilly will have some hobby interest. But that’s pretty much the long and short of it for the 5th-Rounder. Reilly has a high-effort delivery that’s touched 98 with a moving fastball and has an excellent slider to pair with it, but control of both pitches has been an issue. It’s also a relief-only profile and it’ll take some coaching to get his mechanics consistent enough to have enough command to make it to the majors. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2
San Diego Padres
tier 1
None
tier 2
Dillon Head, OF
The Padres top pick already has some tangible assets to bank as he heads from his high school in Illinois to a full season of professional baseball. He’s a plus defender in every aspect, and his speed, which is at least 70-grade, will translate on the basepaths. His hit tool is quite projectable as a plus asset as well, though there is some slight concern at pitch identification (like many high-schoolers). It’s a smooth, line-drive oriented swing that compliments his speed well. He even has a little bit of power, and consensus is that it could grow in to 10-15 HR pop with maturity. Hobby-wise, that’s not the pop we like to see as a ceiling, but he makes up for it with being one of the more advanced prep bats in the class and having those other super-shiny tools in his bag. He’s hobby-relevant even without the power, and we can add the 1st rounder gravitas to it, but even better as a real life prospect. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Homer Bush Jr., OF
The son of the MLB journeyman of the same name, Bush was a 4th Round pick from Grand Canyon. He has plus speed and a swing geared to use it. Bush sets up in a deep crouch and gets deeper in his coil, leading to a sell-out for contact with a low average launch angle. It’s intentional, but there’s some hope that he tweaks that because there is some raw power to be had in his lean 6’3” frame. He also tends to be on the aggressive side, but it didn’t show in his debut which had him reaching AA. With his above-average arm paired with his clearly plus speed there’s hope that he could develop into an everyday CF. Hobby-wise, I want to see power of some sort before I take a chance on him. To me, he really looks like a punch-and-judy speedster that’ll be more valuable for his team than he is in the box score. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Jay Beshears, 2B
Beshears is a bit of a mystery box for the future. A 6th rounder drafted from Duke, Beshears is big and lean with a nice power stroke. He still has room to grow physically, so there’s the dream of that tool to be plus as a ceiling. However, he hasn’t shown consistency in his plate approach yet and there are some major swing-and-miss concerns. He’s quick, but also stiff defensively so while he could slide over to 3B, 2B or a corner OF is more likely. To Beshears smells like a bit of a project – even if he’s successful and hits that power ceiling, it’ll be an age-24 debut. Even then, what will his hit tool look like? His defense? We just don’t know. It hurts him for the hobby that he’s a college bat whose negatives outweigh the positives that we can call certainties. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
San Francisco Giants
tier 1
tier 2
Bryce Eldridge, OF
The Giants have now drafted a two-way player with their first MLB Draft pick in back-to-back years, taking Eldridge at 16th overall with a nice little discount thrown in to help pay for Walker Martin in round 2. With Eldridge, the Giants have had him purely focused on the hitting side of the equation since he joined the organization with 26 games in right field and five games at designated hitter. He came into the draft listed as a first baseman, but has yet to play there. Given the mid-90’s fastball in his arsenal, it’s not surprising to find him in right field where his arm can be a potential asset. And speaking of the fastball, it’s still not out of the question that the Giants let him pitch in the future. They may have decided not to put any more innings on his arm in 2023. However, my uninformed guess is that the Giants nix any pitching ambitions he may have.
Focusing on the hitting, Eldridge has at least plus if not double plus power at the moment, with power to all fields. At 6’7”, there are potential concerns that you would have with any player of this height from holes in the swing, long levers, swing length, and a large strike zone. In the small sample size we have so far, what I’ve seen is that the large strike zone has been the biggest issue. He’s regularly been a victim of questionable called strikes leading to a bit of an inflated strikeout rate in my opinion, although he will be susceptible to that low inside pitch that left handed hitters love to target. His swing looks good and he can be short to the ball when needed. He has good pitch recognition and shows decent patience leading to plus walk rates. Altogether, some strikeout concerns given his length, and as he gets older and potentially bulks up from his current lankiness, there could be some fluidity challenges. The Ceiling is potentially massive, with 35-40 home run potential and a good enough plate approach that can get him there. With the uncertainties, it just keeps him out of Tier 1 for me, but there’s a lot to like here from a Hobby perspective. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9
tier 3
Cole Foster, SS
An underslot third-round pick of the Giants, Foster is a college shortstop with above-average left-handed pop and a ton of swing-and-miss. He goes up to the plate looking to swing and has that classic left-handed approach - put the ball down, especially down and in, and he can easily barrel it out of the park. Put the ball anywhere in the top of the zone and he struggles. With that swing-first approach, he’s not registering a high walk rate to compensate for the high strikeout rates. Doesn’t wow you at shortstop, but he’ll be able to hold his own at the position. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him play more second base in the long run and ultimately end up as somewhat of a utility profile. He’s going to have to cut down the strikeouts to make an MLB impact, but the power ceiling is good enough to squeeze him into Tier 3. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Joe Whitman, P
The 69th overall pick (Nice!), Whitman was the MAC Pitcher of the Year after transferring to Kent State for his Junior season. He’s mostly a two-pitch guy right now - an average fastball that is typically around 93 and a plus slider that gets plenty of swing and miss. His third pitch is a change-up, but reports are that it needs work. I didn’t see him throw it in the tape I checked out. At 6’5”, 200 pounds, adding muscle with the hope of added fastball velocity is high on the list of next steps, along with figuring out the change-up or another secondary. If those things fall into place, we’re looking at a mid-rotation lefty with a strong strikeout pitch. If that doesn’t come to fruition, he will still find a bullpen role on the strength of the slider alone. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
Maui Ahuna, SS
The Giants 4th round pick out of the University of Tennessee didn’t get any professional games after being drafted. He was sent to the Complex post-draft and shortly thereafter landed on the 7-day injured list, and then a bit later, ended up on the 60-day injured list. I haven’t been able to find any info on what the injury ended up being. Assuming it’s nothing with long term impact, Ahuna profiles as a slick defender at shortstop with above average power and hit tool concerns. The defense gives him a high floor/lower risk profile since that should give him MLB viability. The strikeout issues due to difficulty with off-speed and breakers will limit his Ceiling and ability to get to his power. Essentially a TBD since we haven’t seen him take a professional rep yet. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Luke Shliger, C
Another underslot draft pick of the Giants, Shliger fits the same Patrick Bailey mold from Zaidi’s first draft as the man in charge of San Francisco’s front office. He’s much more of a poor-man’s version of Bailey though, as Shliger profiles as more of a backup catcher without Bailey’s pop. The corollary to Bailey is the strong plate approach. Shliger shows patience and a good eye at the plate, leading to above-average to plus walk rates. Similarly, he frequently puts the bat on the ball and uses the entire field. He was quite comfortable regularly taking pitches the other way.
As mentioned, the power is average at best. He’s not looking to swing out of his shoes, for better and worse. He plays the position well and will keep runner’s honest even with the current rules that favor stolen bases. All in all, a very solid player with the floor of an MLB-level backup catcher but not that high of a hobby Ceiling due to the average power and position on the diamond. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Quinn McDaniel, 2B
Part of the Giants underslot crew, McDaniel is a hit and speed utility type that provides good baseball value but not a ton of hobby value. As our own Brian Recca said after his live look, he’s got wiry strength. I saw that in my video looks when I was a bit fooled by his shorter stature and then saw him depositing a few baseballs on the other side of the fence. To be clear, they were wall scrapers and his power is probably in that 10-15 home run range with full playing time. He battles at the plate, has a good approach, and puts the bat on the ball a lot. Above average speed should get him to that 10 to 20 stolen base area. Primarily a second baseman, he likely also gets some time at third base, shortstop, and left field to increase his versatility. There’s some Tier 3 upside but no real plus tool or hobby value with McDaniel. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Seattle Mariners
tier 1
tier 2
Colt Emerson, SS/2B
THIS IS A DUDE. I said it on Twitter after I started watching Emerson tape and I’ll say it again here. If he can get to above-average power without impacting his hit tool, Emerson will be a superstar. The hit tool is simply superlative. I watched a nasty lefty mowing down a strong group of Modesto hitters and Emerson, as an 18 year old with less than 50 pro games under his belt going lefty vs. lefty, calmly went with a 1-2 pitch and deposited it for a single in left field. It may seem mundane, but it’s literally one of multiple examples I could recount of Emerson exhibiting a near-elite hit tool. He battles at the plate, takes a lot of walks, doesn’t strike out much, and puts the bat on the ball all the time.
Speed is another potential plus part of Emerson’s game - stealing bases and beating out infield ground balls was a regular occurrence. There’s easily 20+ stolen bases in his future. As I said earlier, the only question is the power, and unfortunately that is an over-weighted component of the Hobby which may depress his card value. With his innate contact skills, there’s easily potential for 15-20 home runs because he’s putting the bat on the ball so much. We shall see if anything changes with his approach or if he simply grows into more power with age to get into that 25+ category. On defense, he should have no problem handling shortstop or second base. Emerson’s floor is very high, but his Ceiling is slightly depressed for the moment because of the lack of power. Regardless, I’m all in on Emerson. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 8
Tai Peete, INF
The third of the three preps the Mariners took in the top 30 picks, Peete was one of the youngest players in the 2023 draft class at 17 years old when he was chosen. Peete has a big arm that plays anywhere on the field. In high school he was pumping mid-90’s before what was supposedly an arm injury in the summer of 2022 ended further reps there. So far he’s played third base, shortstop, and second base in pro ball. He likely can play anywhere in the outfield as well, but as he fills out his 6’3” frame, he may be more of a four corners type of player.
On the offensive side of the ball, Peete is a future power bat that will punish mistakes. It’s hard to temper expectations when the first game I put on, without realizing it, was Peete hitting Grand Slams in back to back innings. It was absolutely electric. However, those were the only two he hit over the fence in the 24 games between the Complex and Single-A. That being said, he regularly hit the ball hard, and was looking to pull the ball at every opportunity. There is easily plus power in the future if he can get to it in game. Getting to that power in game will be all about the hit tool, and there is quite a bit of work to be done there. I saw an above average amount of swing and miss which resulted in a higher than 25% strikeout rate at both stops in 2023. Simply from the nature of Peete being a plus athlete, there’s likely a fair amount of stolen bases in the profile, at least at his peak. An athletic power hitter with a plus arm has a strong chance of becoming an impact big leaguer and it really all boils down to how the hit tool develops. He’s a borderline Tier 2/Tier 3 for me and I will go with the optimistic side given his youth. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Jonny Farmelo, OF
Taken at 29 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Seattle had to go $400K over slot to sign Farmelo away from what was considered a relatively strong commitment to the University of Virginia. For whatever reason, the Mariners didn’t give him any in-game reps at the Complex and then sent him to Single-A for Modesto’s playoff run. Four games of stats and video is tough to draw any useful conclusions from. From what I saw, he’s competent in center field, fast, and has good raw power. The one home run he hit was to the opposite field gap where he stayed with the pitch, which was nice to see from a teenager. The few at bats I saw him face same-side pitching (left handers) is when he looked really over-matched. That causes me to take a bit of a cautious line with platoon concerns, but I am trying not to be too small sample size focused. The promise is above average power with plus speed, and we can all dream on that. For now, I’ll give him a bit of TBD ranking until we get a usable sample size. There’s a strong possibility I’m the low man on Farmelo, but I’m not going to take the leap yet that others seem to be doing. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Brock Rodden, 2B
After passing on the A’s in 2022 as their 10th round pick (can you blame him?), Rodden ends up getting taken by the Mariners in round 5 of the 2023 draft. He has a strong, potentially plus hit tool to pair with above average speed and average power. He takes a lot of pitches, battles until he gets a pitch he can drive, and makes a ton of contact while keeping the strikeout rate low. At 5’9”, it’s unlikely that the power gets significantly better, which will keep his ceiling low. However, this profile absolutely plays as a future major league utility bat at the very least. Primarily a second baseman, the Mariners have also given him some reps at third base, and he probably will find a few more positions in the future to enhance his usefulness. There’s just not much Hobby relevant characteristics to get excited about, but the hit tool can drive potential Tier 3 interest in the future. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Teddy McGraw, P
McGraw is one of the many college underslot picks by the Mariners to aid in their plethora of prep overslot picks. Coming into the 2023 season, McGraw had a chance to be in the conversation for top pitcher in the class and at the very least a first round pick. Unfortunately, he had to go under the knife for his second Tommy John surgery (his first was during his Senior year of high school) and missed all of the 2023 season at Wake Forest.
In 2022, he featured a three pitch mix with an effective mid-90’s fastball, a plus slider, and an inconsistent change-up. The command was the main concern with McGraw as he had a high walk rate. He’s a huge question mark as he won’t throw any professional innings until next season, and that will mostly be spent getting back up to speed. He’s a long way out from us being able to have a good idea of how hobby relevant he will or won’t be, so him being in Tier None is purely based on injury. He’s a potential mid-rotation starter, but one we haven’t seen since 2022, so take these rankings with the proverbial grain of salt. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
St. Louis Cardinals
tier 1
None
tier 2
Chase Davis, OF
I was excited to see Davis get drafted in 2020 and then for whatever reason, he ended up heading to the University of Arizona rather than being selected. It took a bit, but he put it all together in his Junior season hitting .362 with 21 home runs. I started to get excited again and going to a collectable team didn’t hurt matters. Unfortunately the super small sample of 34 games at Single-A went almost as bad as you could imagine. He wasn’t seeing much to hit which led to a low batting average, high strikeout rate, high walk rate, and no power. In some cases, small samples are trends, and in others, they are something you should ignore. In this case, I’m choosing to ignore most of it with the caveat that the high strikeout rate is probably the one thing that does stick.
Ultimately Davis is a very athletic left handed power bat that has the arm to play either corner outfield spot with some swing and miss. He’s not shown a strong capability or desire to steal bases, but I wouldn’t rule that out of his game as he has the athletic talent to potentially do so. The poor small sample size results do force me to increase his risk, but I still think you’re looking at a potential favorable-for-the-hobby plus power, 30 home run bat. The 1st round pedigree and collectable team make it easy for me to slot him into Tier 2 even with the hit tool concerns. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Travis Honeyman, OF
The Cardinals took advantage of an April shoulder injury that ended his season, and were able to take Honeyman in the 3rd Round. The Boston College outfielder has a balanced toolbox. His power is mostly to the pull side but by no means does he sell out for it. Rather, he uses his quirky open stance as a mechanism to aggression, and has been really successful with it. He was great at putting bat to ball in the ACC and had pretty low strikeout totals. Defensively, he may not be a CF but either corner would be a fit, so it won’t matter for the hobby. There’s not a lot of wow factor with Honeyman, which makes him more valuable for real life than the hobby. but he easily has a MLB regular ceiling. That shoulder injury makes me bump his risk up a tick, but you don’t have to. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Zach Levenson, OF
The Cardinals don’t have any outfielders, so why not draft that position in 3 out of their top 4 picks! Just kidding, in case you couldn’t tell. Positional approaches in baseball are a lot less important than other sports, but it still feels a bit strange to see that. Levenson’s main value is as a power bat, and you can see that immediately when he got to pro ball. In 34 games at Single-A, Levenson hit 6 home runs. He had a few chip-in steals, took a few walks, and didn’t strike out too much. Levenson can handle spin as well as heat and looks to launch the ball over the fence with his swing path.
There’s a future bench power bat here that can play left field, first base, and designated hitter. I’m not sure there’s much more given there isn’t anything beyond the power that stands out here. However, power is what the hobby chases, so it allows Levenson to sneak into Tier 3 even if I’m not totally sold yet that he belongs there. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
tier none
Jason Savacool, P
Savacool is a 6’1” Maryland righty taken in the 6th round. I think he’s a future reliever. Though’s put up a lot of innings in his three years, there’s quite a bit of effort in his delivery and while his low-90’s two-seamer has good shape, he didn’t locate it well enough in his junior year and he got hit hard. I think he’d be better suited to move to a slider/change-up dominated profile, because they both have excellent movement. Again though, too many of those off-speed pitches didn’t have good command and against competition better than the Big Ten, it’s hard to project future success. There will have to be quite a bit of development with Savacool in the way he approaches hitters and some upticks across the board to make it to the majors in a significant role. I’m just not sure if those changes are truly projectable, so I will be out on him for the hobby entirely. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 2
Tampa Bay Rays
tier 1
None
tier 2
Brayden Taylor, 3B
Taylor has been a force in college baseball for years at TCU. Since his freshman year he’s been putting up great numbers with a balanced approach at the plate. He has elite zone contact numbers and doesn’t chase where he knows he can’t hit it. He also has above average power and gets to it easily with his smooth stroke because he’s so disciplined at the plate. There’s a ton of offensive potential here. His defense at 3B or wherever else the Rays try him is a maybe a little more questionable, but he has the arm and movement for it – it’s just about being more consistent. To add onto all of this, his body is not yet maxed out physically so there’s more natural projection to be had.
Taylor is a Top 8 name in this product, and one whose surefire skills better suit the hobby than real life. I don’t think he’ll debut for the Rays in 2024 because there’s work to do on defense, but he’s simply got a great outlook for the future with a nice floor and a high ceiling – whatever his price is at release, it’s probably worth it. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Adrian Santana, SS
The 31st overall pick, Santana is probably the best defensive prep SS in this class, and also one of the youngest. He’s ultra smooth defense that projects as double-plus is grounded with speed to match, an asset that will absolutely play on the base-paths as well. He’s a smaller player and still has a ways to go physically, but when he’s swinging freely he laces line drives all over the field with enough pop to project fringe-average power already. He becomes a bit disjointed in his 2-strike approach as he sells out for contact, which pitchers at more advanced levels will take advantage of to induce weak contact. It’s just a little adjustment to make as he starts his career. For a prep with such a long ways to go he still has a decent floor because his defense is special – it alone will keep him in the pipeline for a long time. It’s not something we totally care about for the hobby, but it will give him as much time as he needs to develop his hit tool. There’s a good ceiling here that’s still clouded in development, but the hobby should be quick to reach for the sky. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Colton Ledbetter, OF
Ledbetter’s ability to play CF brings up his floor considerably, which is what made the Rays take him 55th overall in the 2nd round. Sure, if there’s an elite speed asset he’ll get pushed to a corner, as Ledbetter is better taking great routes with average speed, but there’s a legitimate chance he stays there. That was a new development this year at Mississippi State, a feather he tacked onto his already established hit-over-power cap. He has a simple, balanced stance and a contact oriented swing with no real flaws and a patient approach. It’s fair to call his hit tool in total a plus asset. His power is at least average and to all fields, and as he learns the pro game I would expect it to grow to roughly 20 HR pop. He’s an excellent name for this release and an important name for the Rays organization – but he’s more of a mini-5-tool guy than one who truly has everything working for him, so his hobby ceiling is a bit capped. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7
Tre’ Morgan, 1B
Sure, he’s likely a 1B-only, but at LSU showed for a few years that he’s an elite one defensively. Taken in the 3rd round, Morgan has a simple setup and a silky smooth left-handed stroke he uses to drive balls to all fields. Morgan also has elite bat-to-ball skills, but his quality of contact wasn't always great – there’s a way to go yet with his feel to hit. His swing naturally creates below-average power (which isn’t bad!), but with better decisions I would expect it to tick up a hair to perhaps 15-20 HR pop at peak.
This puts him in a bit of an awkward place for the hobby, as there’s a floor with his defense, but players who are likely 55 hit / 50 power at 1B don’t end up as great names. The wild card is that things start to click in a major way and both of those grades tick up. The natural talent is there for him to do it, but I’m not going to project it. He also gets a small hobby boost due to the LSU thing. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
Tier None
Hunter Haas, SS
Haas has the skills to be the Rays next oft-used utility bat. His plate skills aren’t extreme, but there’s been major improvement from last year at Arizona State to this year at Texas A&M and into pro ball. The 4th rounder has a big leg kick in his set up that he uses to get his swing going - it’s a very patient, mature, all fields approach. He’ll take power where he can get it but it’s not truly a part of his game, maybe a 10 HR peak projection. Defensive versatility and makeup might be his best traits – not exactly something you can bank in hobby terms. This is a player that has decent organizational value but for the hobby, it’s hard to call him more than a well-below average name. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3
TJ Nichols, P
It truly seems like the Arizona righty 6th round pick is a future reliever, but one with some promise of a high leverage role. His fastball is flat but up to 98, and his slider is a wipe-out pitch at its best. Despite low a BB total, both of those pitches lack consistency, which is why Nichols’ numbers look rough and he was moved to a bullpen role later in the year. With a thin 6’5” frame it’s fair to project a tick more velocity to come. What’s more important is altering his fastball so it’s more effective, and developing better true command. He’s in a good system to get there at least. Even if it’s just mediocre command, there’s a future in an MLB bullpen awaiting him. But relievers don’t get hobby love at all unless they have bugs-bunny stuff, and Nichols doesn’t at present. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 2
Texas Rangers
tier 1
Wyatt Langford, OF
Langford is the top name in this product, full stop, and it’s not close. If Dylan Crews (the next closest college bat) or Walker Jenkins (the top prep for the hobby) were in this product, there’s a conversation to be had, but without them Paul Skenes and Max Clark are fairly distantly behind him. If you’re interested in Bowman and reading this, you probably already know why. Langford was among NCAA Division I leaders in many categories, but led all in extra base hits and did so with just a 14.5 K%. Physically mature, he simply has a tremendous feel for the barrel – everything I saw was hit hard, and it was mostly line drives. His swing path is so well optimized and his bat speed so great that many of those well-struck balls tend to leave the yard or end up in gaps. It’s at least plus raw power, and he gets to a lot of it.
He’s a complete hitter in every sense of the word, but that’s not all. He’s posted plus run times, and though they haven’t quite translated to games he’ll be an annual double-digit SB threat. He’s almost surely a LF because his arm is just average, but who cares. All of this showed in his pro debut, where he slashed .360/.480/.677 with 29 XBH (10 HR), 12 SB, and a 17 K% in 44 games. Some of those games were all the way up at AAA to boot. Ridiculous.
Langford looks the part of a ready-made hobby superstar straight out of the draft – it’s been a while since we’ve seen one like him. The Rangers pushing him so aggressively make me (and everyone else) think he’ll be called up early in 2024, which coupled with everything else makes his risk non-existent. He’s very likely to be an above-average major leaguer for years to come, with upside of being a league MVP. Risk:1 Ceiling: 10
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
tier none
None
Toronto Blue Jays
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Juaron Watts-Brown, P
A 3rd round pick from Oklahoma State, I’m in love with Watts-Brown's slider. So is he. So should you! It’s easily a plus pitch with a sharp downward plane, and coming from a wiry, athletic 6’3” frame with a bit more projection remaining, one he could ride to the majors. He commands that pitch very well, but the rest of his arsenal is a work in progress. His curve looks very similar to his slider but is slower with more movement – with improvement in command it could become a devastating combination. His fastball command is also lacking right now, and though it was up to 96 that’s what’s really holding back his overall profile. It’s a flat pitch that hitters can really just sit on and hammer. If he develops even an average fastball, watch out. He’s a wait-and-see name for the hobby, but one with a high-K SP ceiling that we love with the fallback to a potential high-leverage reliever. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7
Jace Bohrofen, OF
Taken in the 6th round, Bohrofen is a corner OF who’s been a known commodity since his prep days for his power potential. He has a mature approach, but the video I watched from early 2023 had him swinging and missing at a lot of breaking pitches. That improved dramatically as his his season at Arkansas wore on though, and he’s regained much of the pedigree he had coming out of high school. It translated to his pro debut too, where at Low-A he smashed 6 HR in 17 games to pair with a .442 OBP. That’s more of a result of that mature approach playing up, but it’s still nice to what’s now year over year improvement and ability to adapt. It’s what baseball is all about. He’s more of a sleeper for the hobby – the 6th round is pretty much as deep as this product goes – and it’s not as if he’s a tooled up prep overslot signer. But I think there’s a considerable floor here, and his hit tool has enough potential to let his natural power get to a 30 HR ceiling. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
Landen Maroudis, P
Maroudis is a prep 3rd-round righty from Flirida who signed for a well-over slot $1.5MM. He hasn’t solely focused on pitching yet, so it’s fair to think his 92-95 MPH fastball will tick up almost immediately. It’s a nice one, with some sink and armside run. He pairs it with his change pairs well with good velocity difference – it’s a more of a firm fade than a tumbler right now. Both of these pitches squarely have plus potential. His third pitch is weird - it has more break but almost comes across as a third armside-runner – I’ve seen it called a slider and a curve. It has a long way to go - it’s too similar to his change. His mechanics are generally smooth and his delivery is easy, but he gets out of sync on occasion like most preps.
With Maroudis, though, it’s with his elbow – that’s a critical point to clean up as he begins his pro career because it ticks up his injury risk for now. It also could be chalked up to his being a two-way player if you’re looking more positively. Maroudis is like most of the preps in this product – he’s got great potential and seems like a starter profile. For the hobby since I’m looking for something to separate him, it’s that lack of a third good pitch and what I see as injury risk - so he’s a hair below the others. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Connor O’Halloran, P
Low three-quarters lefties are a tricky lot to figure out as a hitter, and one with as much polish as O’Halloran could be a quick riser through the system. The 5th Round pick had great results at Michigan this year too, winning Big Ten Pitcher of the Year honors. He’s a finesse arm with great command - not one of his pitches averages over 91 or under 82. He gets by on knowing where and how to attack hitters. He does have one plus pitch, his slider, but he doesn’t use it or any other pitch in his arsenal as a go-to. This is a nice profile that we’ll know soon whether will play well in pro ball or not, and the Jays are a good organization to help him maximize his ceiling as likely a back-end rotation piece. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4
Washington Nationals
tier1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Andrew Pinckney, OF
Pinckney needed all of his four years at Alabama to earn his status as a 4th round pick, but he’s a nice hobby name. First, he’ll have defensive value anywhere in the OF. There might be enough instinct and speed for CF, but his arm is very clearly a plus asset, so RF is an easy bet. At the plate he’s a fastball hunter - he has an all fields approach when he gets one and has at least above average raw power. There’s legit 30 HR potential here, but he needs to learn pitch identification better and chase less - that’s his major issue. But it’s so far so good as a pro – he made it to AA, a good sign for a player that’s just turned 23.
Those who buy into Pinckney for the hobby should hope that he continues to mature more as a hitter to hit a low-average, high OBP, power-centric MLB regular – something like later-career Curtis Granderson. If not he’s still got a 50th% outcome of a 4th outfielder because of his cannon and athleticism. He could be quick to the majors as a senior sign too, which is a plus. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6
Tier none
Marcus Brown, SS/2B
Brown is a high floor low ceiling player. Unfortunately for the Hobby, that high floor is based on his plus up the middle defense. The low ceiling is due to the below average offensive profile. Don’t be fooled by the small sample size pro ball sample. In 28 games in Single-A, Brown put up a wRC+ of 119 with identical strikeout and walk rates (12.5%). Watching some of those at bats, it was clear that the pitchers he was facing were fatigued or just not great as there weren't a ton of pitches he faced in the zone.
Looking back at his college profile, Brown struck out quite a bit more than he walked. The reports have him lacking impact and while I did see him do some damage on the few pitches that he did get to hit, I expect he will struggle against more advanced pitching. The glove was slick, and that will make him MLB viable as a back end of the bench guy or, at the least, an emergency depth type. There isn’t much else unless the hit and/or power tool makes a significant leap. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Elian Soto, OF/1B
The only player in the product with a 1st Bowman card that was not in the 2023 MLB Draft, Soto was an International Free Agent signed by Washington in the most recent period in January 2023. He was originally slated to sign with the Mets, but his older brother’s ties to the Nationals likely swayed him towards switching his choice. Not sure why he didn’t sign as a 16 year old in 2022 and waited until 2023, but it may have been that switch and waiting for the money to be available. Or some completely different reason - I’m sure y’all will correct me in the comments.
He only has autographs (no base) in 2023 Bowman Draft, and they have the “CPA” card numbering rather than the standard “CDA” card numbering for all the other chrome draft autos. It’s safe to assume Soto was slated to be in the 2023 Bowman Chrome checklist, and for whatever reason Topps decided to include him in the 2023 Bowman Draft checklist instead. Maybe they thought they would get his cards back in time for Chrome and when they didn’t, they didn’t have time to print and pack out redemption cards.
Like most DSL players, he’s super raw, but he’s also a year older than most of his competition. Not dominating, and even more, not even being league average, is quite the concern, especially with the extra year of physical maturity. He didn’t hit any home runs, didn’t steal any bases, and had close to a 50% ground ball rate. Right now he’s lean and can bust it down the line, so there’s probably some stolen base potential in the future, but he’s got to get on base for it to matter. In his 35 DSL games, he had just 18 hits, with only five of those being doubles. Hitting below the Mendoza line and not having any pop to help you latch onto something is going to be a problem.
If Elian’s last name wasn’t Soto, I doubt there would be any interest in his cards. I expect there will be more demand for his cards than his stats and current talent deserve. It’s not quite the Elijah Tatis situation from last year, but it’s not quite far off that either. Risk: 9-10 Ceiling: 3
And there it is baseball card collectors. We hope you enjoy 2023 Bowman Draft and find some useful nuggets in our thoughts on the prospects in the checklist.