Live Looks: High-A Central

Written by: Justin Lada

LHP Logan T. Allen, Cleveland Indians 

Observed: 6/3/21

A bunch of draft reporters joked during the 2020 draft that Cleveland would wind up drafting Florida International University’s LHP Logan T. Allen, not solely because he fit their recent profile, but because they already had a left-handed starter named Logan Allen they acquired in a trade from San Diego in 2019. 

This Logan Allen was a starter and first basemen/DH at Florida International University but has ditched the bat to pitch full time and Cleveland gave him the appropriate assignment in High-A Lake County to start his pro career.

Cleveland hasn’t done much to Allen’s delivery because they have’t needed to. It’s still a step and turn to start his delivery from the third base-to the middle side of the rubber. The delivery is clean and simple with a back turn to the hitters and his hands meet his plant leg in a coil as he gathers. The back turn and coil gives his delivery the look that he’s going to come at the hitter throwing across his body, but Allen does a good job with his torso and upper body to tilt without compromising balance and help get his arm slot up to the high 3/4 mark smoothly. Outside of occasionally losing his release point, his motions are athletic, clean and repeatable. The only notable thing about his delivery is that he can show the hitter the ball behind his back hip as he drops his arm before his arm swing. He gets through it quickly and gets the plant foot down well and maintains a quick tempo on the mound. His delivery is short and compact as much as his time is from when he gets the ball back and gets back into being set to throw again. 

Allen so far has stayed with his true three-pitch mix that he had in college. There was some video surfacing around the internet last year that showed him throwing a bigger, almost 12-6 breaking ball, but in pro ball so far he’s stuck with the fastball, slider and changeup. He’s been a fastball / change-up arm first nearly since high school and said he didn’t add the slider until late in his high school career. All three offerings work well off of each other and in the looks I’ve seen of Allen, it depends on the matchup which non-fastball he relies on more. The change-up has been his best pitch throughout his amateur career and still looks good in pro ball, but he’s shown more comfort with his slider at times and it has been effective when he chooses to use it more than his change-up.

Working through the sixth inning in his starts, Allen has maintained a solid baseline for his fastball velocity. There’s no additional jump in velocity in the first inning and nary a dropoff as he gets to the fifth and sixth innings. He firmly sits 91-93 with the fastball. He hasn’t topped 94 yet but will consistently get to 94 more than a few times throughout his starts. There is some natural cut to Allen’s fastball out of his left hand, but it doesn’t have a ton of noticeable movement. His delivery and command likely help the pitch be as competitive as it is in and out of the zone. Allen likes to bust hitters up and in on their hands with his heater. He forced more than a few batters to attempt to check their swings only to go through or he pushes the fastball up on their hands so much that they end up fouling the ball off on their check swing. It’s an easy way for Allen to steal strikes and set up the rest of his arsenal and he has the command of that pitch more often than not to do so. He isn’t afraid to work his fastball up in the zone despite average to fringe-average velocity and he also likes to work backwards, often throwing backdoor or fastball’s up in the zone on two strike counts. He had multiple hitters chase and miss the fastball up in the zone on two strike counts because of the sequencing and his ability to show the hitter he throws it for strikes all over the zone. Allen’s fastball can get him in trouble a few ways. With lower velocity, it can be less effective when he gets behind in the count. When he leaves it up and out where the hitter can extend their arms, it can also be driven. Against Dayton on June 3, Francisco Urbaez got a 2-0 fastball up and middle-away and drove it over the right field fence for a line drive home run. Command and sequencing are what allows Allen’s fastball to be competitive. 

While Allen’s change-up has been considered his best secondary offering, the starts I’ve watched featured a lot of slider usage from him. It appears as if Allen may manipulate the shape of his slider, or perhaps the shape is inconsistent. I’ve seen the slider with late horizontal bite that looks cutter-ish but has some vertical depth to it. Other times his slider has a longer break and will dive more vertically. It has looked like a 2-9 shaped and other times, 2-7 and even 1-7 at times. He’s unafraid to to start hitters off with a slider and will backdoor it to right handers and throw it away from lefties. He does a good job of burying it down in the zone and more often than not, the slider is a chase pitch for him. In multiple starts, I’ve seen him rely on it more than his vaunted changeup and get right handed hitters to chase it down by their feet. The slider velocity band for Allen has ranged from 78-83 and he was effective starting it out as a strike and getting hitters to chase below the zone. He tunneled it well with his fastball and the sequencing of going upstairs with his fastball and then burying the slider below the strike zone. A few times, he did leave a slider up in the zone, allowing right handed hitters to turn on it with hard contact. Leaving the slider up and mainly relying on it as a chase pitch are the few concerns. He did get a few called strikes with it but seeing if more advanced hitters lay off of the pitch when it looks like it will start as a strike will be a good test of its effectiveness.

Despite only having a three pitch mix, there is something slightly confusing about Allen’s arsenal. His slider and change-up sometimes have the same velocity band. His cambio can sit between 78-83 as well and his change-up shape can make it hard to pick up if you’re not watching closely for it. Allen throws a circle change but he splits it coming out of his hand, so you won’t seen it with as much armside run as you would a normal change-up, but more of a split type change-up. Like his slider, Allen’s change-up often starts as a strike and drops below the zone. I haven’t had many opportunities to see him drop it for a strike and he’s been good about varying his sequencing to hitters between when and how often they see the slider, and when he breaks out the change-up against them. 

Allen did exactly what you expect him to do on the mound. As an arm without plus raw stuff and big velocity, his command, sequencing and tempo were all on point. Of his 86 pitches, he threw 60 for strikes (69%) and got 12 swinging strikes and 14 called. He had just one three ball count all night, his one walk, and six two-ball counts. He showed the drawbacks of his fastball and lack of big raw stuff when he fell behind hitters Urbaez, however it wasn’t something he did frequently. His walk and the homer Urbaez hit were the only times he fell behind 2-0 to any hitters. He threw first pitch strikes to 13 of the 22 batters he faced (59%). More advanced hitters may not chase the slider as much as hitters are at High-A. It wouldn’t surprise me if Allen has gone to the slider more than I expected given what we know about his changeup for developmental purposes and the real next step for him is seeing how more advanced hitters react to his slider and how much he can force them to chase it, even when they are behind in the count. Shane Bieber, another master of command profile Cleveland successfully developed, has seen hitters in 2021 not chase his breaking stuff as often. That took hitters some time to do after he blew them all away in the shortened 2020 season, but Allen doesn’t have an arsenal as deep as Bieber’s, and better hitters might lay off Allen’s slider. While he doesn’t look like he dominates or blows hitters away when you watch him, the results suggest Allen is ready for a harder test at the next level. 

LHP Ethan Elliot, San Diego Padres 

Observed: 5/11/21

A Division-II lefty, Ethan Elliottt has faced Lake County three times so far in 2021 and has stymied them each time out. His second outing against them alone earned him High-A Central Pitcher of the Week honors (6 IP, 13K).

Elliott first faced Lake County this season on May 11 and took the loss despite turning in a good day’s work.

A tall and lanky lefty, Elliott stands over the middle of the rubber with a wide base. He turns his back and gathers with a very high leg kick. He’s only listed at 6’3 but looks like a lot of arms and legs on the mound. He sweeps his front foot around in his delivery and throws cross body with a low 3/4 arm slot. His arm swing is a little long and uses a lot of his lanky legs and arms in the delivery.

Elliott sticks with a simple arsenal, a fastball, slider and change-up. Against Lake County, he saw four left handed hitters, three switch hitters and two pure right handed hitters. He used an array of fastballs and sliders to neutralize most of them the first time seeing them.

He was aggressive, throwing first pitch strikes to 13 of the 17 hitters he faced, most of them fastballs that sat between 87-89. I never got him hitting 90 once in this outing, but some of the swings from hitters on his fastball suggested that it played faster than what it was reading on my gun. He held this velocity into the fifth inning and spotted it well, especially on the outside corner to right handed and left handed hitters equally. With his crossbody delivery and low arm angle, he had no problem working inside and outside to hitters. He got behind one of the Captains left handed hitters, Joe Naranjo, and missed high with an 88 mph fastball and paid for it with a solo homer, the only run he allowed all night. Like I mentioned above with Allen, with his fastball velocity, getting behind hitters and into fastball counts is what will expose that lack of velocity, even though Elliott’s has some deception to it.

Elliott’s slider was his primary offering to most of Lake County’s left-handed hitters and it worked well on them. He showed the ability to throw it down and in, and low and away as well. It’s a slower off-speed offering, sitting 73-75 and has a bit of a big, slow break late. It’s not a power slider but it does get hitters to chase, at least at this level. He threw it for strikes about as often as he did throwing it to get hitters to chase it.

The best offering Elliott had, though I didn’t see it as much as the fastball or slider, was his change-up. I suspect at these levels, when organization’s know pitchers already have an above-average to plus pitch, that they don’t throw it as often as they might normally, so they have to work on developing and refining their other pitches. The few change-ups I had a chance to see, it was straight drop change-up that didn’t feature any armside movement. In fact, it had some cut to it when it dropped, if anything. It dove under hitters bats when he threw it for a chase and miss pitch. The change-up runs 80-82 for him, so it doesn’t have a ton of separation from his fastball, and it doesn’t dive away from right handed hitters like a traditional change-up, but there’s enough vertical drop to it to miss bats and be deceptive. It seemed like he had arm speed to sell it, as I didn’t notice any difference between when he threw his fastball and his change-up. 

Overall, it was an outing that showcased Elliott’s abilities as currently built. He’s had a lot of dominant starts against Lake County this year, and really has yet to turn in a less than quality outing, but between live looks and video, I haven’t seen his fastball climb north of 90. The extension he gets on his delivery with long limbs, command and maybe spin give it the look of a more competitive pitch than the radar gun might suggest. He is able to get swings and misses on the pitch and he has the slider and change-up to keep hitters off of it. Like Allen, sequencing was a big factor for Elliott and getting ahead with good command. Added velocity, even consistently into 90-92 range would make a big difference for Elliott, and it might even help his slider. He clearly fits a pattern of what the Padres have liked in arms recently. He’s tall, lanky, has good command and is deceptive. He shares those traits, but maybe not the stuff with starters they’ve drafted like MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon, Nick Margevicius, and Joey Cantillo, who is also in Cleveland now. Lake County has one of the youngest hitting teams in the league, however, they don’t strike out a lot, so Elliott’s ability to compete for strikes with his fastball is very intriguing, though how it plays against older and more advanced competition will tell a lot more about some of its traits.

Live Looks: Los Angeles Dodgers High-A Position Players

In the first two breakdowns, Jake Boes, James Chipman and Rogelio Castillo offered their thoughts on some of West Michigan’s position players and pitchers.

Now Jake and James share their thoughts on some of the Great Lakes Loons’ position players in this latest installment of Live Looks.

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3B/1B MIGUEL VARGAS

A late sign, the Dodgers inked Miguel Vargas in September of 2017 during the J2 international signing period for a reported $300k. The 21-year-old Cuban native checked in as the seventh best prospect on our Dodgers board this off-season.

At 6’ 3” 205 pounds, Vargas has the prototypical corner-infielder body that scouts like to see. Vargas performed well over our recent live looks, going 6-for-16 with a double, a home-run, three walks and a stolen base. He operates from a closed stance that opens during his load with a modest toe tap trigger. His quick, strong hands generate above-average bat speed. Vargas is quick to and through the ball with impressive barrel control. The in-game power was more advanced than I anticipated. There was also more loft in his swing than I expected. While most of the power was to the pull-side, he did have some rather loud contact to the opposite field. What impressed me most was Vargas’ ability to make adjustments and handle plus velocity and above-average secondaries with ease. As patient as Vargas was to not expand the zone, more importantly he wasn’t passive in hitter’s counts, allowing mistakes to go unpunished. Overall there’s enough ability and feel to project potential above-average hit and power from Vargas. 

Unfortunately Vargas didn’t see much action beyond routine plays at third-base. His range appeared adequate and his arm showed above-average strength with solid accuracy. He ran the bases well and was quick out of the box, but seemed to lack a second gear, clocking a fringe-average 4.34 down the line on a close play.

While everything in the profile points towards a decent second-division regular, I’m bullish and I think there’s enough production at the plate to yield a solid average everyday regular. —James Chipman

SS LEONEL VALERA

The Dodgers signed Leonel Valera during the international period in 2015 and he was able to make his way stateside for his first full season in 2019. He repeated this year with the Great Lakes Loons but rose a level after the re-alignment of the minor leagues.

In my live looks against the West Michigan Whitecaps, Valera showed much of what we expected to see from him in the field and at the dish. Physically, he’s athletically gifted with a frame that’ll likely allow him to stick at shortstop considering the new wave of physical shortstops throughout the league.

At the plate, it’s a paradoxical approach; quiet and patient, but when the swings do happen, they are all out with little regard for the count or situation. Naturally his approach produces power, a fair share of walks, and lots of swing and miss.

Valera seemed perplexed by fringe or better offspeed the entire weekend; striking out on breaking balls and changeups beneath the zone. On the bases, he’s an easy plus runner with long and galloping strides — although some of his stolen base success came thanks to Whitecaps’ catchers.

At shortstop he made the expected plays. There wasn’t anything that jumped out about the defensive profile and he lacked the necessary chances to parade his prowess in my live looks. His arm shows plus strength but he did throw away an easy double-play turn on Sunday; air mailing the first-baseman Deacon Liput.

Credit to Geoff who wrote this one up perfectly during the off-season. He’s tooled up and the talent is there, but in today’s game everyone has to hit, including shortstops. The swing-and-miss will continue at the expense of some of his power numbers, which prevents an everyday profile from becoming most likely for him long-term. —Jake Boes

OF ANDY PAGES

The Dodgers acquired Cuban native, Andy Pages in October during the 2017 international signing period. Listed at 6’ 212 pounds, the 20-year-old has significantly bulked up over the last year, adding 30+ pounds without sacrificing any athleticism. Pages doesn’t just look the part, he acts the part. It’s not cocky by any means, but there’s an obvious confident swagger in his demeanor and game.

At the plate, Pages went 4-for-17 with a pair of doubles and two walks. He also had a couple loud outs that made you walk away encouraged with what could be. Pages operates from a slightly open stance, standing completely upright with an extremely narrow base. There’s very little pre-swing noise and a quiet load in his rather compact stroke. His belt high leg kick acts as a timing mechanism. Pages has an aggressive, damage oriented approach with a lofty uppercut swing that yields a copious amount of fly balls. His plus bat speed and plus raw power play significantly down in games because of the swing and miss both in and out of the zone. The Achilles heel in Pages profile has always been his contact issues and this year is no exception as he’s striking out in nearly ⅓ of his at-bats. His track record for posting above-average or better walk rates helps mitigate some of those concerns though to an extent.

Oddly enough Pages lacked the advanced approach and ability to grind out at-bats that previous reports suggested (probably just an unlucky stretch of games on my end). He gave away a few at-bats swinging early at questionable pitches he probably should have let go. The swing and miss on above-average or better velo located on the inner-third and elevated for chase also concerned me. On a positive note, there was evident bat-to-ball skills and glimpses of the plus raw beginning to show in-game, on the pair of doubles and some of the loud outs when he found the barrel. 

Pages showed average straight line speed that played up a tick on the basepaths and in the outfield. I do believe that speed will regress a tick and play closer to fringe-average long term, as he continues to physically mature. Defensively we saw Pages move around quite a bit logging time at CF, DH and in RF twice. During his three games in the outfield, Pages got good jumps and showed good reads with efficient route running. There’s certainly enough defensive prowess to play CF. I do believe his size and future speed likely forces him to a corner eventually though. That being said, his 60-grade arm-strength would play nicely in RF, if he can shore up some of the accuracy issues and sporadic youthful mistakes that we’ve heard about.

Overall it’s a raw but attractive power over hit profile with a multitude of potential outcomes. The attributes are loud and the deficiencies are perhaps even louder in their current state. Pages is only 20-years-old though and in a fairly aggressive assignment — he’s far from a finished product. It might be a slow burn developmentally but a big league future appears imminent. That being said, Pages potential big league role will without question ultimately hinge upon the development of his bat and the aforementioned swing and miss in his game. There’s legitimate everyday regular to second-division regular upside with improved contact rates but I’m bearish and see a high risk profile and platoon or power bench bat as the more realistic outcome here. —James Chipman

C CARSON TAYLOR

Carson Taylor was a fourth round selection by the Dodgers in 2020–a season which prevented him from making his professional debut. The organization got aggressive with him as he opened the season in High-A for the Great Lakes Loons.

Taylor was well-regarded for his patient approach at the plate coming out of the ACC, but the Whitecaps staff filled the zone, particularly the outside part of the plate, against Taylor and forced him to take his hacks.

The results were a bit uninspiring; with an 0-for-7 weekend and mostly weakly hit balls in play. His struggles to barrel the ball against some less-than-stellar pitching on West Michigan’s staff makes his true offensive ceiling questionable, at best.

Taylor takes the more modern catching set up on one knee which helps him to better present and frame pitches for the home plate umpire, but comes at the expense of some blocking ability. He allowed at least one pitch in the dirt get away which allowed a runner to advance. Nevertheless, he was encouraging his pitchers with his body language behind the plate and pitchers enjoyed his receiving and game-calling ability.

For me it’s a below average hit, fringe-average defense, and above-average arm. Without a true carrying tool behind the dish, it’ll be tough to leverage any certain calling card to help propel his way to a lengthy big league stay. Overall, it’s an emergency up/down depth role with an organizational soldier floor long-term. —Jake Boes

OF JAMES OUTMAN

James Outman was a seventh round selection by the Dodgers in 2018. The Cal State product ranked 39th on our Dodgers board this offseason. 

Physically, Outman looks the part — his 6’ 3” 215 pound frame and plus athleticism sparkle. Outman is an above-average straight line runner whose instincts move the needle to a plus grade overall. The speed helps pad Outman’s already impressive range in the outfield. Outman patrolled both CF and RF over our live looks, making several difficult plays appear effortlessly routine. He runs like a deer, covering impressive ground. His reads and route running were also efficient. Outman showed the willingness to sacrifice his body, crashing into the wall at one point, stealing extra-bases from Andre Lipcius. It’s without question impact level production in the field, as Outman’s defense showed plus with an above-average arm.

At the plate, Outman went 3-for-16 with a home-run, a pair of walks, six strikeouts and three stolen bases over the four games that we sat on. Outman operates from an open stance that closes during load, with a sizable but quick leg kick timing mechanism. His long levers yield a naturally long uppercut swing. It’s a patient but damage oriented approach. Outman handled the inner half of the zone exceptionally well; driving a FB to the opposite field and taking a 96 mph FB up the middle. He was exposed a bit on the outer third of the zone though, swinging through a fair amount of below-average to fringy secondary pitches and taking a few called third strikes on pedestrian low-90s FBs. To his credit, Outman showed solid bat speed and above-average raw power. He also showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields. 

While Outman has posted a walk rate north of 10% every season, his track record of swing and miss (23+ K%) is concerning. His struggles on the outer third, specifically with chase secondaries has me bearish that his in-game power reaches even fringe-average as he continues to climb the developmental ladder and starts to see more advanced pitching.

Outman recently turned 24-years-old, and he’s currently hitting just .190 with a .688 OPS in A-ball. The secondary skills are loud enough to keep him in the conversation, but Outman’s lack of production and projection at the plate complicate an otherwise impressive profile. There’s a tremendous amount of pressure on the development of the hit tool to push the profile. Overall there’s legitimate role-30 emergency depth potential as a fourth outfielder, with a solid upper-minors role-20 org soldier the more likely future outcome. —James Chipman