1B Aaron Sabato, Minnesota Twins
Aaron Sabato was the Twins’ 1st round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft (27th overall). A right/right, bat-first prospect out of the University of North Carolina, there’s a lot of pressure on Sabato to hit and hit early since his only defensive home appears to be first base. Due to the pandemic, his 2020 season at UNC came to an abrupt halt after just a month or so. With no minor league games last year, he didn’t make his pro debut until May 2021 and he was not invited to Minnesota’s Alternate Training Site following the draft. His first pro experience of any kind came during instructional league during the fall of 2020.
With the stage now set, it’s time for the bad news: Sabato has had a pretty abysmal start to the year. He’s the likely not-so-proud owner of a .159/.357/.273 slash line through 115 plate appearances with six extra-base hits to his name to go along with a 20.9% walk rate and 36.5% strikeout rate. It’s not exactly how he saw his first pro season starting out, I would imagine. It’s never good when the OBP outweighs the SLG, especially by that much.
So, what’s the issue? At this point I’ve seen Sabato live for four games and about 13 plate appearances and to be completely transparent, I don’t have a solid answer for you. His feel for the zone has been pretty good and his approach and selectivity are pretty impressive. He didn’t chase very often, he spit on tough pitches in the zone with less than two strikes and he was able to foul off tough pitches to extend at-bats. He doesn’t necessarily, despite that undesirable strikeout rate.
That said, something is clearly happening because he’s struck out in 24 of 25 games so far this season. I think some of that is because he's quite selective and everyone is still learning what the Low-A strikezone is going to be this year (I've been to 4 games and it has felt different every game). The other piece of that puzzle is that his bat-to-ball accuracy feels a bit lackluster so far this year and despite having good bat speed, he’s been late on velocity in my looks. He’s swung through mid-90s fastballs and when he does make contact, it’s soft to medium the other way rather than driving the ball. Much of the contact he’s made while I’ve been in attendance has been weak because he’s just not squaring the ball up. Whether that’s because the hit tool isn’t quite as good as we thought or because it’s been well over a year since he last saw competitive pitching in a game environment remains to be seen. For my money, I’d choose the latter, for now. It takes a bit for some guys to get their timing back and he’s trying to do it against the toughest competition he’s seen in his whole life. That said, his struggles against velocity do raise some concern.
The swing itself is still impressive. He’s direct to the ball with a flatter swing plane and creates good bat speed despite not using a long load. He’s able to do this because A) he’s quite strong, and B) he creates exceptional separation at first hand movement. That combination allows him to rip the bat through the zone and really drive the ball when he connects. Now, he just needs to start connecting with pro pitching.
The rest of the profile is as advertised. My man is not a runner. His stride is short and choppy, though he does cycle pretty quickly and tries to run hard; running is just not what he was born to do and it’s only going to get worse as he ages. On defense the glove feels fine, nothing more, nothing less. He’s not wowing anyone with spectacular stretches or anything, but you can count on him to make most of the plays he should make without much issue.
Sabato still looks like a masher who should make an impact of some kind at the major league level. The feel for the zone is good and his approach and selectivity are impressive. The swing is also impressive and the defense and athleticism are as advertised, for better or for worse. The key for him will be settling in and squaring up the ball more often. If he’s able to do that, we should see him take off this summer. —Joe Drake
RHP Randy Vasquez, New York Yankees
Randy Vasquez was an under-the-radar $10,000 sign for the Yankees during the 2017 J2 international signing period. If you chase boxscores or prospect rankings, Vasquez is easy to overlook. This season Vasquez is winless with a 4.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 21 innings for the Low-A Tampa Tarpons. While Vasquez has struck out a batter-an-inning, his 6 BB/9 highlight an area of his game that needs to improve.
I sat on one of Vasquez’s starts in early May and recently had another live look this past Saturday in Tampa. While the numbers appear rather pedestrian, Vasquez appears to have taken a step forward developmentally. The Dominican Republic native is beginning to show legitimate pop-up potential.
Physically Vasquez is slightly more chiseled than his 6-foot 165 pound vitals suggest. Vasquez works from a semi-windup, tall and fall operation. He’s a short strider, but his arm action and high leg kick yield a good deal of deception. Vasquez works quickly on the mound and has done a better job of getting ahead in the count to cut down on the walks. His mound presence was also visibly more commanding in this latest start.
Vasquez’s fastball sits 92-95. The high spin heater averages around ~2500rpm with impressive cut. His high-3/4 slot helps generate a steep angle to the plate. Vasquez also gets decent riding life when he elevates for chase. The velocity is borderline average, but the movement and potential role change has me bullish that the offering plays closer to above-average when all is said and done.
Vasquez’s best pitch is without question his breaking ball. The high-spin breaker features double-plus to elite spin rates; mostly hovering around ~3200rpm and regularly bumping ~3400rpm. Vasquez leans heavily on the offering utilizing it almost as often as his fastball. His power curveball sits 80-84 with tight rotation, big 11/5 shape and sharp late bite at its best. Vasquez commands the pitch exceptionally well, working it to both sides of the plate. He’s able to sneak it in the zone early to steal strikes and it generates swing and miss both in and out of the zone. The offering has noticeably improved this season, flashing plus often enough to make me believe further reps and continued pro instruction help it settle there long term.
Vasquez’s changeup significantly lags behind his other weapons. Seldom utilized, the offering is a firm tumbler around 88-90 that’s primarily deployed as a wrinkle to opposite-sided batters. The velo separation from his fastball isn’t optimal. While Vasquez shows a degree of feel for the pitch, the consistency waivers. It’ll sporadically flash fringe-average but the majority of the time it’s overthrown and below-average.
Vasquez’s sequencing is incredibly FB/CB heavy. Of the 69 pitches thrown in his last outing, 33 were fastballs, 30 curveballs and just six were changeups. The development of the changeup or addition of another offering will be paramount if Vasquez wishes to stick in the rotation long term. This issue likely works itself out though in due time with a role change.
The 22-year-old Vasquez is Rule V eligible this December. Clearly there’s work to be done before he’s added to a 40-man, but it’s definitely an attractive enough profile to give the Yankees something to think about this off-season. As pedestrian as the numbers appear, the “stuff” is filthy enough that he could be a tough pass for another org in the draft should he be left unprotected.
While there’s a small chance he develops into a SP, a role 40 bulk relief or low-leverage arm seems like the more realistic potential outcome. It’ll be interesting to see how the Yankees handle his development the rest of this season. Regardless, Vasquez strikes me as someone that certainly could thrive and move rather quickly in a relief role. —James Chipman
SS Nasim Nuñez, Miami Marlins
Writing up Nasim Nuñez this offseason was possibly one of my favorite reports I had the pleasure of working on. This 2019 2nd round pick out of Collins Hill HS (GA) is just a ball of fun.
He’s a switch hitter at the plate who’s a tad more advanced from the left side in my eyes and presents a really impressive approach from both sides. He’s a very patient hitter who teeters on passive some outings. Picks up spin well out of the hand and does a fine job of not chasing. Lack of true bat speed does cause him some trouble with fastballs up in the zone, which has been the main cause of his swing and miss so far this season. Overall bat-to-ball skills to me are above average as he leads Jupiter in hits and I see some projection remaining. I don’t think there will ever be any sort of thump in the bat, but if he can continue to spray the ball all over from the leadoff spot with an impressive walk rate then we could see more growth in his profile.
What gives Nuñez a near everyday regular grade is what he does with the glove and with his legs. Watching this young man play shortstop is a joy. Nuñez covers a ton of ground moving in all directions and the fluidity in his motions are extremely easy. For being a smaller 5’9”, the ability to make strong, accurate throws comes very easy for Nuñez. Rarely has to sell out or leave his feet to make a tough throw. The overall confidence to charge any ball with the mindset you can make the play could seem reckless, but seeing him make plays consistently puts your mind at ease.
The run tool —which is by far his best tool in my opinion — has been on display regularly to start the season. I clocked him three different times sub 4.0 H-1st and will get some of the best jumps I’ve seen out of the box and on the base paths. Nuñez currently leads all of Low-A Southeast with 19 stolen bases and gives off all the signs of being a guy who’s going to be among the league leaders every year in that category.
I do think there’s an outside chance if Nuñez can continue to show a quality hit tool at the top of the order, with his plus athletic tools, could be a possible 45 or 50 OFP player going forward. I am becoming a fan of the floor regardless. —Ian Smith
SS Keoni Cavaco, Minnesota Twins
Keoni Cavaco was Minnesota’s 2019 first rounder, selected 13th overall after surging up draft boards that spring. He was a late bloomer who suddenly grew into legitimate power his senior year and is a terrific example of a pop-up prospect. The book on him coming out of the draft was that he was a good athlete with impact power at the plate but lacked polish both at the plate and in the field.
Having seen Cavaco for five games now, the initial reports still hold up pretty well. In the field, it’s been an adventure. Despite being a good athlete, fielding his position at short just doesn’t look natural and sometimes looks forced and the six errors he’s been charged with agree. Thursday night he had a pair of throws get away from Sabato at first and no matter who was ultimately at fault, the bottom line is they weren’t on target. It’s hard to see him sticking there without dramatic improvements to the overall defensive profile. It feels more likely that he slides to second base where missteps would have a little more room for forgiveness or the outfield where his speed and solid arm would play well.
At the plate, he’s looked more promising so far. While there is definitely swing and miss both in and out of the zone, Cavaco has the ability to extend at-bats fighting off close pitches until he gets something he can drive and did so against Phillies top prospect Mick Abel, no less. Cavaco fouled off sliders and fastballs on the outside until Abel made a mistake and hung a slider that Cavaco immediately deposited in the LF seats. The ability is there even if it’s not consistent right now. His approach is a little aggressive and he’s getting fooled on non-fastballs right now, but that’s not surprising given that he only had 90ish plate appearances in rookie ball to his name before this season. Coming straight to full season ball this summer is a big jump.
Cavaco’s swing is a touch long, using a hand load that starts after the front foot gets down, but he has the bat speed to make up for it. Once he gets into launch position, the swing is actually pretty short to the ball and the bat speed he generates is impressive. The bat path has a little steepness to it and he does a good job lifting the ball which helps him get to his raw power in games. When things aren’t going well, he looks rushed, even if he’s not necessarily late. He just looks uncomfortable at times, but he also turned 20 on June 2 and is squaring off with pitchers 1-3 years his senior. Growing pains should be expected.
Ultimately, Cavaco looks like an impact bat that should hit for a fringey average with average or better game power while playing reasonable defense somewhere other than short -- I think the org will have a better defender that they prefer. I think the bat will be strong enough to play at 3rd base should the Twins go that route, but I’m not sure he has the defensive instincts or hands to really profile there. I think a bat-first second-baseman or outfielder (center or right) makes the most sense. —Joe Drake
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, New York Mets
This little note is a little bit overdue, as we unfortunately were only able to see just 6 games from the Mets 2020 first round pick. As you know by now Pete Crow-Armstrong is out for the year due to labrum surgery in his non throwing shoulder but I was able to get a glimpse of a future impact 5-tool center fielder.
PCA came out in 2021 with a slightly reworked approach at the plate. Now presents an open, even stance with a more compact swing and bat path. Added to that, there’s some significant physical development from last summer in a good way, looking more solid throughout his entire frame. Swing path is still very linear and creates almost no loft, but showed the ability to catch up to upper tier velocity with ease. Turned around mid-90s for a pair of doubles in my looks and ended up as his only extra base hits on year. Ability to pick up spin was there, and would try to use the entire field. Overall the pitch recognition and slightly above average pop to all fields are trending up from what I saw going into the 2020 draft.
The added muscle on to his frame has not hindered his run tool at all from my side of things, as I clocked multiple sub 4.2 H-1st times. He actually has two of his four caught stealing on the year from over running the bag. His short stride reaches top speed almost too quickly.
Defensively, Pete Crow-Armstrong makes it look extremely easy roaming CF. A true plus to double plus runner allowed him to track down every attempt I saw in the gaps or over his head. High level routes and instincts seem to come naturally in the field, and look to still be improving.
Overall I was pretty blown away by the super short sample size I was able to see with PCA, but the “prospect fatigue” he seemed to have going to the draft looks to be all but gone. There’s little doubt in my mind that this 19-year-old will ascend into the top tier of outfield prospects in all of baseball in 2022. —Ian Smith