Matt Manning, prized prospect and Tigers first round selection from 2016, has been in the farm spotlight since draft night. Out of his high school in Sacramento, CA, Manning was well-regarded for his premium athleticism, impressive size, and low mileage on his arm by evaluators and analysts alike.
Manning ultimately passed on a basketball scholarship from Loyola Marymount; an opportunity that would have put him in the same vein as father and former NBA player Rich — in exchange for a path pitching his way to the pros.
The organization was careful with Manning and started him in the Gulf Coast League in 2016; a cautious assignment for a top-10 pick. But given Manning’s lack of experience on the mound as an 18-year-old, the move wasn’t as insulting as it appeared on paper.
Like many high-end prospects, Manning’s 2020 consisted of time at the alternate site before a forearm strain shut him down. The tall right-hander responded to his arm issues by changing his old hooking arm action (think Justin Verlander) to more of a claw reachback in 2021 (think Trevor Bauer). It was once thought that a clawing action (called “short arm” by some) would lead to injuries due to the arm speed necessary to get the arm up in time to link the rest of the kinetic chain, but this theory has been widely debunked.
Fast forward to 2021 and Manning is still regarded by most outlets as a top-50 prospect in the game. I had the opportunity to get eyes on him for a Saturday evening start against the Columbus Clippers in which he went 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7H, BB, 7K.
His stat line was slightly deceiving. While he was able to navigate through the scattered hits for the most part, much of the contact against Manning was loud and batters appeared comfortable in the box against him.
The primary reason for the trip was to learn about Manning’s third pitch. There had been news about a new breaking ball, but not much information was available beyond it having slurvy action as a different look compared to his 12/6 breaker.
The new breaking ball experiment appears dead or at least tabled; as he only warmed up and deployed three pitches: fastball, curveball, changeup. To put it lightly, the change is far from a finished product. In fact, it’s possible it has regressed since his Double-A Erie days.
At one time, Manning’s changeup flashed above-average but sat below-average with fade. I was hoping to see at least one or two with average attributes but did not find one in my live look.
First, the pitch lacks consistent desired velocity. He threw one in the first inning to get a double play at 86; the rest were 88-90. It’s simply not a big enough gap to effectively keep hitters off his fastball. After throwing the first change of the night, one scout turned to me and asked, “What was that?” Probably not a good sign.
The movement profile was additionally perplexing. The change remains fairly straight when locating arm side, but he had a habit of breaking his hand with it, which yielded modest cutting action. I actually wondered if he was trying to throw a cutter at one point during the outing, but concluded that wasn’t the case.
As for the rest of the arsenal, I am a sucker for a tight-spinning, soul-sucking curveball and Manning certainly has one. It flashed plus with steep, 12/6 break from his near over-the-top slot. It sits more above-average for me considering the command, but given his athleticism and the good ones he does throw, a plus grade wouldn’t create argument from me.
One of the downsides to essentially being a two-pitch pitcher is Manning can only be so creative with sequencing. He hung a curveball to Bobby Bradley that got crushed in the second inning on the first pitch of his AB. While it wasn’t located particularly well, the result speaks more to the lack of other offerings more than the curveball itself.
After bumping 91-92 in the first inning with his fastball, Manning found 93-95 in the second and maintained that velocity band comfortably through the entire start. I was slightly more encouraged with Manning’s fastball compared to other looks. While he generates elite extension from his long frame, the movement on the offering is pedestrian, but with one exception in my look that I hadn’t noticed prior.
When locating glove side, the pitch featured cut that ran in on opposite-sided batters and some ride in the upper third. Horizontal movement is a welcomed sight for an arsenal which currently relies entirely on working vertical. If he can find a way to replicate the movement profile throughout the zone, it’ll be enough of a wrinkle to miss barrels.
Overall, I remain cautiously optimistic with Manning. His ability to stick in a rotation hinges on him finding a viable third pitch, and based on my looks, I’m not convinced his current changeup is an answer. A solid third pitch not only gives hitters a different look but it would enhance the effectiveness of the ofher offerings. At the same time, even if his changeup doesn’t progress, there remains a formidable fastball/curveball option out of the bullpen.
It is possible we see Matt Manning make his big league debut in 2021, but in terms of development, he could use a full season in Triple-A to ensure he’s well-armed to get through an order three times.