RHP EURY PEREZ, MIAMI MARLINS
If you happen to be following me on Twitter, which is probably likely if you’re reading this, then you know my feed has slightly become a Eury Perez fan account.
One of four pitchers from the Marlins 2019 international free agent class, Perez signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic during the J2 period. Now barely 18, and the youngest player in the Low-A Southeast in his first ever taste of professional baseball.
Perez has been maybe the most impressive player I’ve seen so far in minor league ball in 2021 (unless you count that deGrom rehab start 😉). I’ve been lucky enough to catch three out of his five starts, and each one he’s been a little bit better than the last. Perez stands at an imposing 6’ 9” on the mound and operates out of a low three quarters slot. He uses an old school over the head delivery that he can repeat very well, albeit having very long limbs.
Watching the first two starts from Perez, I believed I was seeing two different breaking balls, but after an extended look behind home plate, I’m certain he has a three-pitch arsenal with a 4S/sinker, slurve and change-up. Perez shows an innate ability to spin, with near elite spin rates on his FB that stay around 2500-2650 RPM in every outing. It’s a very heavy fastball at 94-96 T98 that gets a ton of sink out of an uncomfortable arm slot and has shown ability to command it to both sides of the plate. He currently gets a majority of his swing and miss on the fastball with 16 in less than 20 innings pitched. You can see above-average potential with the pitch, maybe even more velocity as he adds weight to his skinny frame.
His slurve and change-up are the pitches that are going to make or break the overall upside of Perez as he develops through the Marlins system, and I’ve seen signs of above-average potential in both. Perez stays 76-79 on the breaking ball and has the ability to manipulate the shape of the slurve throughout at bats. There have been times it’s held 11/5 shape and then others when it had a ton of sweep, I was sure it was two different breaking balls for multiple innings. Quality spin shows on the breaker and a ton of consistent vertical break as well, but command will come and go early on it in outings. Off-speed feel is there for a young age and gets a good amount of glove-side run. It’s a firm change-up at 86-89, but should continue to have good velocity separation as he gets older.
Eury Perez looks like a 20-year-old Edward Cabrera when he was in A ball, if that gives you an idea of where his level of development is on a Marlins level. He’s light years ahead of what I thought I was going to see in 2021, and if you’re asking me then I think his floor could reach role 50 by the end of 2021. —Ian Smith
RHP MICK ABEL, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Mick Abel was the Phillies 1st round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft at number 15 overall. At 6’5” and 190 pounds, he boasts the prototypical projectable starter’s frame and has already added some muscle to the lower half since we last saw him in 2020. The upper half is still long and lean, but looks a touch over skinny these days.
I caught two Abel starts during Clearwater’s series in Fort Myers. He was on a very limited pitch count both times, checking out of the game around 55 pitches in each outing. His combined stat line added up to 5 innings pitched allowing 2 hits, 3 earned runs, 3 walks, and 8 strikeouts. The box score alone tells you that he was very tough on contact (8 Ks, 2 hits) but the walks made the hits hurt (3 walks, 3 runs). But you’re not here for the box score, so let’s get into what he looked like on the mound.
Abel’s stuff was electric in both starts. He was sitting 97 in the first inning on Tuesday and Sunday before settling in at 94-95 for the remainder of each start. That’s up a tick from his amateur days. He even touched 99 on a pitch that ran back over the plate gloveside on Sunday. The fastball had good carry and consistent run to it, helping it stay off barrels. He used it to open at-bats as well as finish them off since hitters couldn’t touch it when he elevated -- especially after they saw a breaking ball. The only thing holding the fastball back was the command. A common theme in both starts, Abel had issues finding the plate at times with the full arsenal, including the fastball.
The secondaries were all on display in both outings despite the limited pitch count. The breaking balls really stole the show despite being a bit slurvy. The shape of the curve and slider would bleed together a bit when they were in the low-80s. That said, the bite on both pitches was pretty consistent and batters couldn’t do much with them. The curve showed an 11-5 shape with very good depth while the slider had more sweep at 10-4. He only hung one breaker from what I saw, but he paid for it when Keoni Cavaco put it in the seats beyond the left-field wall. The remainder were either swung through or taken for a ball off the plate gloveside - his most common miss. His changeup looked very good with both tumble and fade. He sold it well with his great arm speed and most of them looked like fastball out of the hand. Once again, command was hit or miss, but everything about the pitch looked plus outside of that.
The overall package is just as pretty as it was at draft time last year, if not moreso. The stuff looks fantastic, the velocity is mid-to-upper 90s, and the frame is beginning to fill out. Obviously, the control and command are going to need to take a step forward in order for him to be more efficient and pitch deeper into ballgames, but let’s not gloss over the fact that he’s 19-years-old and missing bats with ease in full season ball. —Joe Drake
RHP TREVOR HOLLOWAY, NEW YORK YANKEES
Anthony Franco tried to warn us about Trevor Holloway’s pop-up potential last June before the UDFA period began. Well, some of that pop-up potential is starting to materialize as Holloway is starting to gain some helium down here in Florida.
Backing up a bit, bicep tendinitis in 2019 and 2020’s pandemic shortened season limited Holloway’s exposure to scouts. The Yankees must’ve been on him early as they pounced when undrafted free agency began, signing the University of Central Florida product.
The Tarpons have utilized Holloway in bulk relief this season and the early results have been solid: 8G 17 2/3 IP 3.06 ERA 1.19 WHIP. More importantly Holloway has struck out 32 batters for an impressive 16.3 K/9. I’ve had a pair of live looks: one good statistically and one rather so-so. Numbers aside, both looks showed promise of a potential big league arm.
At 6’ 2” and 200 pounds, Holloway has the sturdy build you look for in a pitcher. The sinker/slider stud slings the ball from a deceptive, borderline low-3/4 slot. The moxy and mound presence are present. His “stuff” passes the eye test. If data is your thing, he’s something of a data darling too.
Holloway’s fastball mostly sat 92-94 over my looks with heavy sink when he pounded it in the lower third of the zone. There’s mild arm-side life the rare times it’s located in the upper half of the zone. The offering elicits both weak contact and swing and miss. While the velocity itself is fairly average, the movement profile and data are certainly intriguing. The fastball hit 2840 rpm on my gun in early May and his season average is borderline elite at 2652 rpm. Overall it’s a potential above-average offering.
While Holloway has thrown a small handful of change-ups this season, his slider has without question been his go-to pitch. In fact, exactly half of Holloway’s pitches this season have been sliders and he’s gotten whiffs on 53% of them. Holloway’s slider sits 82-85 generating swing and miss both in and out of the zone. The sharp sweepy two-plane breaker has impressive depth and nasty late darting action. He’ll also deploy a shorter horizontal breaker with some tilt. The high spin breaker averages 2771 rpm and has hit a borderline elite 3071 rpm this season. He has exceptional command of his slider, showing the ability to comfortably work it to both sides of the plate. Holloway likes to sneak it on the inner-third of the plate early against RHB and later finish off his prey with chase away from RHB or on the back foot of LHB. Regardless of the handedness of the batter, Holloway doesn’t discriminate, both right and left-handed batters have been victims of his breaker. The slider sits solid average to slightly above, with legit plus potential. Continued pro instruction should shorten that gap yielding better consistency.
Holloway has yet to allow a home-run and he’s been an absolute groundball machine, posting a majestic 65% groundball rate. His ability to miss bats at a high clip and keep the ball on the ground make him a prospect worth monitoring. That being said, Holloway turns 24-years-old this month, so you’d hope a promotion to a more age appropriate assignment is on the horizon.
Entering this season you wouldn’t find Trevor Holloway on anyone’s Yankees board or prospect rankings. Just one month into the season, Holloway has evolved into a potential role 30 depth arm with mild role 40 upside. Holloway is definitely an arm Yankees fans should keep an eye on this season. —James Chipman
OF VICTOR MESA JR, MIAMI MARLINS
Back in 2018, I was lucky enough to be in the press conference in Marlins Park to see Miami sign a pair of Cuban brothers in Victor Victor Mesa and 16-year-old Victor Mesa Jr. in the largest deal the organization has ever made in international free agency at six million dollars combined.
Let’s fast forward to 2021, Mesa Jr. is now almost 20 years old playing everyday in Low-A, and does not look like the same player I saw debut in the GCL in 2019. As a 17-year-old, I saw a slap hitter with impressive bat-to-ball skills but limited thump behind it, now we are slowly seeing him transform his profile into something of impact.
VMJ uses a narrow, open stance at the plate with his hands high and a big leg kick trigger into his swing. Creates impressive separation and shows consistent above average bat speed. Primarily a linear bat path, I've seen him incorporate some loft into his swing early this season (Avg. Launch angle 12.8°) without losing his approach. The overall approach at the plate leans towards the aggressive side, as he takes an ambush mentality on the first pitch almost regularly. Still willing to walk and maintains a K% under 18%, so there are positives, but his early aggression in games allows teams to work around him later in games. You see a very uninspiring slash line of .214/.286/.350 through 21 games, but his quality of contact has been much better than that in my looks so far. He currently has a hard hit % of 41% and averages 90.2 (Max 109.8) in exit velocity and has been good for at least 1-2 over 100 every time I see him. There’s a really solid chance you could see above average future grades on the power tool as continues to mature physically.
Defensively, I’ve seen impressive routes and much better foot speed than I anticipated. He controls CF well and maintains the ability to track down balls with ease. Very vocal in CF, and has confidence in attacking balls both moving forward and towards the wall. His tracking and speed are particularly noteworthy here due to the fact he has below average arm strength in the throws I’ve seen. Accuracy is there but lacks any velocity behind the ball. A move to LF as his career develops could be a better path to him becoming a role 40 or better player. —Ian Smith
2B/SS CASEY MARTIN, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Casey Martin is another member of the Phillies 2020 draft class. He was selected in the 3rd round out of the University of Arkansas. Martin was widely considered one of the most boom or bust prospects in the class due to his abundance of physical tools (power and speed) and questions about the hit tool. Another name in the long line of “if he hits, he’ll be special” in baseball lore. Well, he was 3 for 11 when I was in attendance and notched 2 doubles while striking out 3 times. He also managed a pair of steals (and 5 during the whole series). Despite hitting .280 for the series, Martin’s season average sits at .232 at the time of this writing while slugging a meager .347.
It seems the book on Martin’s boom or bust nature has carried over into pro ball, so far. He was very aggressive at the plate, often attacking (and swinging through) the first pitch of the at-bat and extending ABs by fouling pitches off rather than taking them. While he did manage to work one walk, I saw him strike out 4 times over the course of the week. His aggressive approach often has him swinging at pitcher’s pitches and making weak contact instead of sitting on something he can really drive. When pitchers come over the heart, he can punish them in a hurry, but when they work the edges, he’s more likely to get himself out and his approach and lack of plate discipline will only be more exposed as he faces more advanced pitching.
Despite some issues with approach, Martin’s power and speed were still able to shine through. He’s got good bat speed which comes from his ability to create good separation, ability to close that separation at contact, and quick hands. He’s got good baseball athleticism on top of conventional athleticism despite having a smaller frame -- he doesn’t look the listed 5’11, 175 pounds. I’d guess closer to 5’9. Either way, he rotates well, creates plus bat speed, and lifts the ball to maximize the damage he does when he connects. Then there’s the speed. I clocked him at 4.59 at the turn on one of his doubles; he was quick out of the box despite taking a big hack and got up to near-full speed quickly. On the basepaths, he was a menace. He got such a good jump on one steal that he had a legitimate chance to take third when the ball got away from the catcher. It’s a blend of physical ability and instincts that puts real pressure on the battery to hold him on.
I didn’t see a whole lot that stood out from him defensively, which is probably more of a positive for him than a negative. There are questions as to where his glove fits at the major league level because his hands and actions are below-average. It simply doesn’t look natural for him to field his position, so the fact that he wasn’t noticeable in my looks is a good thing from that perspective. He’s got the physical traits to profile nearly anywhere on the field given his excellent speed and solid arm, but he may fall into more of a utility role if he can’t make definitive progress with his reads and glove.
Overall, the package of skills is a terrific athlete with real game power and speed that’s held back by an abysmal approach and a glove you want to hide. He’s going to swing hard early and often and he’s going to hit for some power, but he’s also going to strike out and won’t take many walks because of it. He’ll be an asset on the bases when he’s there, but won’t be there as much as you’d want for him to hit at the top of the lineup. The profile is that of a second-division regular or a utility guy with power on a good club. —Joe Drake
3B RECE HINDS, CINCINNATI REDS
One of the more well-known prep bats in the 2019 MLB Draft hailing from powerhouse IMG Academy with light tower power, Rece Hinds is making his full season debut in 2021, and I’ve been lucky enough to catch nearly 20 at bats already this season.
First things first, this is an imposing figure. Standing a 6’4”, 220lb. at 20 years old, Hinds looks the part both at the plate and the hot corner and could be in even better shape then he was on draft day.
A closed stance with a wider base, Hinds utilizes a really short, compact swing for his large frame that creates natural loft allowing him to tap into his raw power with limited effort against Low-A pitching. Still the same free swinging approach we are accustomed to from Hinds with a solid amount of swing and miss, but has started to show better ability to sit for his pitch to do damage. 18 hits on the year, and 10 have gone for extra bases including 4 HR in 21 games while boasting a respectable 9.7% walk rate. One thing that’s really stood out for me about Hinds in my looks is how well he moves on the bases and out of the box. His long stride and true athleticism allow him to reach top speed quickly and cover a ton of ground when trying to pick up the extra base. If Hinds can thump plus a little bit of giddy up, then it only strengthens his profile.
With the glove, Hinds is a very capable long term 3B if he continues to maintain how his body is developing. Moves well laterally and has impressive reaction time to stay in front of balls. Has not been afraid to get dirty and use his frame to cover more ground. Plus arm strength across the diamond is obvious, and shows the ability to make nearly every throw with minimal added effort.
Hinds has immense upside that I don’t think we’ve truly seen yet, but there has been few clues so far in 2021 that leads me to believe we could start seeing that big draft hype of 2019 become a reality before too long. —Ian Smith