The MWL and Sally League represent a big step forward in a prospect’s development stage. Those who excelled, especially at a young level, tend to shoot up prospect lists.
2019 Double-A All Stars: Eastern, Southern and Texas League
2019 Triple-A All Stars: PCL and International League
Minor League Baseball 2019 AAA "new ball" surprises - which is real?
Ranking The Top 10 Farms of All MLB Teams
The Yankees and Mets Should Make A Trade
Top 10 Prospects of Each NL East Team
Top 10 Prospects of Each NL Central Team
Top 10 Prospects of Each NL West Team
Top 10 Prospects of Each AL West Team
Top 10 Prospects of Each AL Central Team
Top 10 Prospects of Each AL East Team
How Lucas Sims Emerged as a Post-Hype Sleeper
Big League Debut: Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Photo credit: Lance Brozdowski
Dylan Cease: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K (July 3)
After weeks of reporters asking Rick Renteria for a timetable on an eventual Dylan Cease’s promotion, the 23-year-old made his debut on the South Side against the Detroit Tigers. While his final line does not inspire praise, his stuff does. Cease’s fastball sat steadily around 98 mph in the first inning, eventually settling into the 95- to 97-mph window by the fifth.
“[James McCann and I] talked before the game and he said, ‘Hey for the first couple just follow me and whatever I put down throw,’ and I said that’s perfect,” Cease told myself and reporters after his debut.
He paired his 79-81 mph curveball with an 84-86 mph vertical breaking slider and heavily favored his mid-80s changeup against his last few batters. While his curveball is aesthetically pleasing due to the sheer amount of break, he possessed better command of his slider throughout the start.
Although many billed Cease as a fastball-curveball pitcher, his slider is integral to his mix, if not more important than his curveball. The unexpected presence of his changeup late in his outing showed a repertoire advanced beyond my prior perceptions of this 2014 draftee. The pitch has nearly a 12-mph differential off his fastball, well beyond the 8 to 10 mph of separation considered optimal. In an age of uniform approaches to hitters—high fastballs, ample sliders—this oddity might could be a benefit to the pitch’s effectiveness versus left-handed hitters.
The entirety of Cease’s repertoire comes back to his control. His stuff is good enough to miss bats in the zone. This should make fans less concerned about his command (spotting pitches) and more focused on putting the ball near the zone long enough to induce swings. That is easier said than done. Cease was missing by feet, not inches, in the first inning of his debut. When he went back into the dugout a conversation with the revitalized Lucas Giolito, he settled back in.
“I came in and I said to him, ‘My fastball is cutting, it looks like a wiffle ball,’ and I said what advice do you have for me,” Cease said. “[Giolito] basically said get my direction going towards the plate and I was able to do that and lock back in.”" Cease struck out six and walked only one batter across his next four innings. His fastball command never came fully back into the picture, but he commanded his breaking balls enough to prevent implosion.
One of the most under-covered aspects of Cease’s game is his athleticism, evident in his delivery. Individuals like Top Velocity’s Brent Pourciau have praised the right-hander’s hip-to-shoulder separation and it’s hard to overlook when he’s on the mound. There’s a slight hesitation in his delivery as his back leg drives off the rubber, but the reason he’s able to flirt with 100 mph at his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame is due to these dynamic body positions few others achieve so well. He may always show velocity and stuff over command, leaving many to project him as a future below-average command starter, but there’s the entirety of his package results in at least an average starting pitcher at the major league level.
My biggest takeaway is how advanced both his slider and changeup were and how they almost stole the show over his curveball. His present four-pitch mix, if the quality of pitches are this consistent, is far more enticing than a profile dominated by his fastball and curveball. Enjoy, White Sox fans.
Big League Debut: Brendan McKay, Tampa Bay Rays
The arrival of one of the most decorated collegiate players ever, The Rays called up Brendan McKay to make his big league debut this past weekend at home against the Texas Rangers. The lefty went six shutout innings, only surrendering one hit with one walk while striking out three. His 12.4% swinging strike rate indicates more strikeout upside down the line. McKay also made his offensive debut when he hit eighth against the Baltimore Orioles going 0-for-4.
The Rays selected the 2017 Golden Spikes Award winner with the fourth pick in the 2017 draft and gave him a $7,005,000 bonus. He was a force at the University of Louisville, putting up eye popping numbers in the box as well as on the mound on his way to three first team All-American selections. Over his three year career on campus he hit .328/.430/.536 while throwing 314 innings with a 2.23 ERA. His best season was easily in 2017 when he hit .341/.457/.659 with 18 bombs while throwing 109 innings with a 2.56 ERA.
When the Rays selected McKay they immediately announced they were moving forward with the plan to keep him as a two-way player, and this was before the arrival of Shohei Ohtani so it came with plenty of questions. McKay was playing first base everyday, except the day after he starts, and they were keeping him on his collegiate schedule which meant just pitching on Sundays while also limiting him to around 50 pitches per start.
He was assigned to Hudson Valley in the New York-Penn League to begin his career, and his first taste of pro ball was a success as he threw 20 innings with a 1.80 ERA and hit .232/.349/.376 with four homers in 36 games. He’s since stopped playing the field and has started DH’ing, but the two way experiment is still very much underway. While the offensive stats likely aren’t what people expected, his pitching has surpassed expectations. He’s a career .216/.348/.356 hitter, but in his small Triple-A sample this year he’s hitting .265/.400/.551 in fifteen games. His career numbers on the mound are highlighted by a sparkling 1.85 ERA in 165 minor league innings with 212 strikeouts and 34 walks. The Rays haven’t allowed him to surpass the 85 pitch mark in any pro start prior to his call up, so that is something to watch.
THE RANKINGS
Brendan McKay was the 61st ranked prospect on our cumulative top 100 list, and 90th on our fantasy list. We ranked McKay as the third prospect in the Rays system entering 2019.
The Tools
Fastball (60 Present/60 Future): McKay’s best pitch is his fastball, and its a plus pitch because of his ability to command it. It’s 92-94 and he can reach back for a tick or two extra when he needs it. He relies on this pitch heavily and is working to sequence better. Can become a bit too predictable with the heater and will go to it when he falls behind in the count. He can also cut his fastball at times, and it can be his best pitch often looking like a hard slider getting in on the hands of right-handed hitters.
Curveball (60 Present/60 Future): The curveball is a true 12-to-6 breaker and he will throw it against lefties and righties. It’s an above average pitch on it’s own, but when you factor in the command it bumps up to plus. He will often steal strikes with this pitch early in at-bats after the fastball has been established and then will rely on it more heavily as the game goes on.
Change (50 Present/55 Future): McKay throws this pitch primarily against righties. It’s deceptive and the arm speed is the same as the fastball but comes in in the 83-85 velocity range. The pitch has some depth to it and plays up a half grade due to his ability to command it. It has flashed plus at times and can become his primary swing and miss pitch against righties.
Pitching Conclusion: McKay showed off his command and Kluber-esque robotic demeanor on the mound during his debut. His six-foot-two frame lacks physical projection but there is room to add some muscle. It’s an athletic build, and one that appears to be able to hold up to the two-way possibilities. McKay has number two starter ceiling for me on the mound, with three above average or better pitches that play up due to plus command and groundball lean. I trust the Rays as much as anyone with this profile.
Hit (40/55): This is an interesting case. On hitting tools alone, McKay would likely be in Double-A right now working on getting the skills to translate to the stat line, but with his arm being big league ready the Rays are also seeing what they have with the bat. The bat speed is above-average. He’s becoming more pull heavy in the last year or so, but does hit a lot of balls on the ground. The Rays have gotten more out of ground ball heavy guys like Yandy Diaz this year so maybe they can work their magic here. McKay has plus walk rates and will work counts, but is often too passive and part of his struggles in the box are due to finding himself in pitchers counts. Again, the Rays are one of the best development organizations and have a raw bat here in McKay to work with.
Power (50 Game/60 Raw): It’s a short, quick swing and the ball will jump off of McKay’s bat. He can leave any park pull-side but will live in both gaps when he’s going right. He’s been working to utilize his lower half more in the the swing and is far from a finished product here. It’s hard to say how the lack of 100% focus on the bat has hindered him here. Look for him to have some 20-25 homer seasons down the road if he gets more consistent reps.
Speed (30 Present/30 Future): Don’t get greedy. The man can pitch and hit, don’t expect him to run. He’s more athletic than he looks though, and can move a bit when underway.
Hitting Conclusion: The bat isn’t big league ready right now, but he’s got future big league tools here. It’s hard to see his college numbers and not get excited about what he could be offensively though. I can see McKay at peak becoming a .250/.340/.450 bat, which will never be as valuable as what he can do on the mound, but will make him a very valuable asset with his skills. OBP league asset here.
Minor Graphs Update - Spray Charts Galore!
In recent weeks Minor Graphs has received a face lift and some new features. While these past updates probably deserved their own post, they were pretty straightforward to explain in our tweet announcements. However, this most recent update has so many options involved that it wasn’t possible to highlight all the features in a single tweet or thread. So let’s get to it!
Multiple Spray Charts navigation and creation
The inspiration came from Bill Petti’s baseballr spray charts function. The ability to see side by side spray charts by year does a great job showing the progression of a player’s batted balls. It seemed like a natural progression from what was existing in our interactive spray charts that give the user the ability to filter, color and highlight by different variables. So the new multiple spray charts feature is an extension or the current spray chart options.
To create them, go to the “Spray Chart” tab, scroll down and click the “Multiple” tab and hit the “Create Spray Chart” button. Here is a screenshot of the new navigation:
Notice the two new variables that appear once you click on the “Multiple” tab - those will control the breakdown of the multiple spray charts.
Top Variable options are either Season or Level. The spray charts will always appear w/ the highest Season/Level to the left.
Left Variable options are either “Handedness” of the pitcher, “Direction” (Pull/Cent/Oppo), or “Trajectory” (FB/LD/GB/PU). Whichever variable is chosen will show up top to bottom.
Multiple Spray chart default selections
Using Cristian Pache as our player, let’s go through all the options to see what we have at our disposal!
Season by Handedness
Season by Direction
Season by Trajectory
Combine w/ other “Color by” Variables
Remember that we can change change the “Color by” variable to be any of these options: Play Result (shown above), Hit Trajectory or Hit Direction, so we can use combinations to create custom spray chart grids.
Level by Handedness, colored by Direction
Use highlighting variables to drill down further
We can also highlight by any of our normal highlighting options in the interactive charts. Let’s use the chart selections above, but only for fly balls.
Level by Handedness, colored by Direction, for only Fly Balls
Level by Handedness, colored by Trajectory, for only Pulled batted balls
Adding Heat Overlay to Multiple Spray Charts
This is where I personally think it gets really fun. The charts above are helpful to identify a certain change in the “color by” option like Hit Direction. However, the heat overlay really helps give a quick visual of how the batted ball distribution changes from one spray chart to the next. All you have to do is simply change the “Heat Overlay” option to “Yes” and click Create Spray Chart. The only thing that changes is that we no longer have the “color by” selection working because we have the heat on top of it. Let’s look at a few different spray chart grids we can create w/ the heat overlay.
Level by Direction w/ Heat Overlay
Level by Direction, FB only w/ Heat Overlay
Season by Handedness, extra-base hits only, 2017-2019 (excluding 2016) w/ Heat Overlay
Other New Spray Chart Options
Now let’s look at the options themselves as a few new ones have been added!
The drop-downs highlighted in yellow are all new!
Result Group allows you to highlight only hits (exclude outs) or extra-base hits (exclude outs and singles) - shown above!
Heat Overlay bins changes the size of the highlighted area of the spray chart when the Heat Overlay option is set to “Yes”. Typically a smaller number will be better for a smaller number of highlighted balls in play.
Include Fall/Winter Ball when set to “Yes” will include available data, particularly from the Arizona Fall League (AFL). I’m not 100% sure what other leagues are included, and if they are, if the data from those leagues have all games tracked.
Other changes to the options (not highlighted in yellow are to:
Level now includes groups and not just single leagues. So you can now highlight “All MiLB” to exclude MLB batted balls, “AAA/AA” to see the group of batted balls only in the high minors, and “Winter” to isolate those batted balls.
Here are some examples of spray charts using the new options:
Extra-base Hits, AAA/AA only
Level (w/ AFL) by Handedness w/ Heat Overlay, bins = 8 (default)
Level (w/ AFL) by Handedness w/ Heat Overlay, bins = 15
That’s it! Hope you enjoy making some custom spray chart grids. As always, check out that and more over at Minor Graphs on the site.
Big League Debut: Bobby Bradley, Mike Brosseau, and Domingo Leyba
Big League Debut: Logan Allen, Adbert Alzolay, Aaron Civale and Tony Gonsolin!
Big League Debut: Zac Gallen, Miami Marlins
forced the baseball world to notice his performance this year as he jumps to the majors with a 1.77 ERA (3.25 FIP), 0.71 WHIP, 11 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9. All of this in the PCL with the new ball. With a Pablo Lopez shoulder injury opening the door for him, Gallen might stick in the rotation for a good while.
