April 30th, 2019.
I went to Frederick to see the Wilmington Blue Rocks and, more specifically, a few of the Royals top prospects. I was excited to see the next wave of Royals who are going to make up the nucleus of Kansas City’s future roster.
What I saw that night was impressive. How could it not be with MJ Melendez, Seuly Matias, and Brewer Hicklen dotting the Blue Rocks’ lineup? The first inning was sheer dominance. The second inning was too. I texted Ralph in the third inning and said, “Hey, I think we need a heat check here.”
Sometimes we stumble on a prospect without warning and it is rare to be “on” a guy before others. When I walked into Nymeo Field, I expected the Wilmington lineup be the main attraction but that was the night I got introduced to Michael Baumann.
In the most dominating outing I saw in 2019. Baumann mowed through some of the best hitters in the Royals system. With a fastball that was sitting 93-97 and an attacking approach that was as relentless as it was suffocating, Baumann threw 6.2 hitless innings and struck out 12 on just 84 pitches. As first impressions go, I was hooked.
The Backdrop
Baumann entered 2019 with some helium but wasn’t considered one of the Orioles top tier prospects as we had him at No.26 on our 2019 preseason top 30. Drafted in the third round out of Jacksonville University in 2017, Baumann performed well in his first year of pro ball at Aberdeen with 41 strikeouts over 41 innings and he limited hard contact giving up an 18.5% line drive rate.
His 2018 season began in the South Atlantic League and he was dominant over 38 innings with 47 strikeouts and just 13 walks. He was once again elite in inducing weak contact allowing just a 14.5% line drive rate but perhaps most impressive was that he didn’t give up a single home run in his time with Delmarva. Those numbers earned him a promotion to the Carolina League where he his numbers took a hit as he had just a 15.1% strikeout rate while his K-BB ratio was an ugly 4.8%. Still, he managed a 3.88 ERA over 92 innings in Frederick and was named Carolina League Pitcher of the Week for his final start of the year where he threw seven shutout innings against a good Potomac lineup.
Perhaps that start should have given us some indication of what was coming but in fairness, his statistical profile to end 2018 was troubling. Thanks to Minor Graphs, we can see here how far Baumann fell off in K:BB% once he was promoted:
We can probably attribute some of his struggles to the increased competition, but there was nothing statistically to suggest a breakout was coming in 2019. In fact, it was quite the opposite and looking at things now, had the Orioles been a deeper organization, Baumann would have missed out on being in their top-30 altogether.
The Breakout
Prior to the night I saw him last year, Baumann had been uneven through three starts. His first outing of the year he tossed five innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts and no walks. He then scuffled through his next two starts giving up a combined eight earned runs in seven innings. Beginning with my live look, things started to click for him. That night began a string of 27 innings (5 starts) where he gave up just four earned runs with a strikeout to walk ratio of 39:8 on the way to being named a Carolina League All-Star.
His work while he was in Frederick was encouraging as the strikeout rate jumped to 34.4% and his K:BB% of 23.7% was even better than when he was with Delmarva. He earned a promotion to Bowie and while I was optimistic, I wanted to err on the side of caution. After all, Double-A is typically the best indicator of whether a prospect will ultimately find his way to a major league roster. Much to my satisfaction, his first five appearances for Bowie were, in a word, terrific:
Courtesy of baseballreference.com
Over 27 innings he had 32 strikeouts with just eight walks and one earned run. Oh, and he also threw a no-hitter.
Baumann went on to author a complete game shutout on August 14 against Richmond, striking out seven and throwing just 94 pitches in the process. After moving to Bowie, he made 13 appearances and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and, maybe most encouraging, only gave up two home runs in 70 innings.
The “Baumann Breakout” can be attributed to a couple of things, both statistically and from a maturation process. He is one of the best in the Orioles system at inducing weak contact, allowing just four home runs in 124 innings last year. For a power pitcher, Baumann has an elite HR/FB ratio (3.6%) and he did a phenomenal job of limiting home runs, especially once he moved to Bowie:
His strikeout rate (28.9%) and walk rate (9.1%) improved over his 2018 numbers and that ugly K:BB ratio bounced back in a big way in 2019:
Every meaningful indicator took a jump last season which is why I love him as an underrated prospect. Well, that and his approach to pitching. There were few pitchers I saw last year that were as efficient as he was on the mound. He worked fast. He pounded the zone. He rarely wasted pitches. He pitched with a purpose. None of those variables are based in analytics, but they still matter.
The Wet Blanket
Is Baumann the perfect prospect? Of course not. Much like any good love story, the main character has its flaws. In Baumann’s case, his K/9 dipped to 8.4 and his K% to 24.3% (down from 34.4% in Frederick) once he got to Bowie. His xFIP also jumped to 3.16 so for a power pitcher without plus secondary stuff (at least for now), those numbers are going in the wrong direction. In Baumann’s defense, while these numbers are predictive of future success, he obviously made major strides from 2018 to 2019 so they only serve to illustrate a larger point that improvements can still be made.
Last year at this time, most evaluators (me included) believed he would be better suited for the bullpen where he could let his fastball fly and use his upper-80s slider to keep hitters honest. Now he is seen as a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation piece with four pitches who could be in Baltimore by 2021.
The Future
In terms of future production, Baumann makes the perfect No.3 starter for a suddenly deep Orioles 2021 rotation. He should provide solid strikeout numbers and help in WHIP, provided that he continues to keep the ball in the park. Once he does make it to Triple-A, we will be given another chance to see his development as the juiced balls will present a huge challenge.
The challenge for Baumann this year will be to continue working on his loopy curveball as a complement to his slider and in developing his changeup from a secondary pitch he occasionally uses to a legitimate weapon he can throw in any situation. It seems like the new Orioles management is making this a point of emphasis so it isn’t too unreasonable to believe he will make strides here. That could be the difference between him being a guy who is really good in seeing a team twice through the order to being a starter who can go deep into games.
Projecting Baumann’s ideal stat line is an exercise in self-control for me. Obviously health will play a big role with regards to work load, but I believe he can eventually throw 160-plus innings. With his historical numbers in mind, 170 strikeouts with a high-3.00’s ERA and a WHIP in the 1.30 range aren’t out of the question. In other words, Baumann is capable of putting up solid #3 starter numbers.
It isn’t often you will get 1,200 words and a number of graphs on a prospect that is outside of our top-100, but Baumann’s incredible 2019 provides an interesting discussion. His progress in 2020 is something I will be eagerly anticipating because when you love a prospect, you want them to shine. From barely registering in our top-30 to becoming a consensus top-10 prospect in the Orioles’ system, Baumann is the object of my prospect affection.