Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a former prospect thriving, one of the game’s highest-paid players getting back into form, and a standout pitcher struggling with strikeouts, and a team that simply won’t strike out, there is a lot to get to this week. Thus, let us get right into this week’s notes!
Don’t Forget About Brendan Rodgers
As the third overall pick in the 2015 draft and a consensus elite prospect, expectations were extremely high for Brendan Rodgers to a potential superstar and a franchise player for the Rockies. Unfortunately, rather than settling into the majors when first promoted in 2019, struggles and injuries have prevented him from meeting those expectations. He’s back healthy now, though, and for those who maintained faith in the 24-year-old, they’re about to be rewarded in a major way.
In 70 plate appearances this season, Rodgers has a 105 wRC+ and .345 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Those are strong numbers, but in a small sample size, probably not enough to catch the eye of the average fantasy baseball player. What matters much more, however, is the talent of the player himself. Thus far, he’s swinging at just 18.6% pitches thrown to him out of the zone, making contact on 84% of the pitches thrown in the zone, and hasn’t been passive (70.4% zone swing rate, 95% meatball swing rate). Yes, it has only been 282 pitches, but that is about half of his total MLB sample size.
Small sample size analysis is very risky, so the real reason I’m high on Rodgers is his overall track record. As you’d expect from a former top prospect, he consistently performed in the minors at levels in which he was young for his age; he posted a well-above average wRC+ at every level. Furthermore, in an era where vertical fastballs are being thrown at an all-time high, Rodgers’ contact splits are very encouraging:
Rodgers’ 2021 Contact Zone Splits, Per Baseball Savant
It has been a small sample size, yes, but this was also a similar tend in 2019. Whereas hitters with overly-steep bat paths are likely to have issues making consistent contact at the MLB level, this won’t be an issue with Rodgers. Why is this important? Well, he just so happens to play in Colorado, which is the most hitter-friendly ballpark with ease when it comes to batting average. I’d love to see him optimize his power (112.8 max exit velocity) more with fewer ground balls (53%), and that is a noticeable issue with his swing. Nevertheless, he’s a player with raw abilities, plate discipline skills, youth, and the most favorable home ballpark. What am I missing here? Do all you can to acquire him now, or forever hold your piece.
Here Comes Francisco Lindor
Speaking of up-the-middle-players with lofty expectations, was any player under a greater microscope coming into the year than Francisco Lindor? That’s what happens when you’re the major headline acquisition for a new ownership group for a New York team, and then proceed to sign a $340 million contract.
Overall, Lindor’s first year with the Mets hasn’t gone as planned. His 92 wRC+ is a career low, his wOBA (.296) is below .300, and his combination of low average (.220) and power (.134 ISO) has made him a very tough start in fantasy leagues. Yet, it was always foolish to expect a player this talented to not bounce back somewhat, and he’s finally starting to do so. Since the start of June, he has posted a 165 wRC, .406 wOBA, as well as a .310 batting average and .262 ISO.
What has changed for Lindor? It is all related to the approach. During his initial struggles, he was doing a great job making contact, drawing walks, and not chasing. However, that all came at a cost of power. There’s a balance to be drawn when it comes to making quality contact and consistently making contact, and Lindor appears to have found it:
To sum it up, Lindor is being less passive and is sacrificing some contact for more power. Considering that he’s still only striking out 19% of the time during this stretch, that’s an easy trade off to make. It’s great to see a hot stretch be correlated with a specific approach change, and for this reason, Lindor appears to be on the rise. While his overall statistics are still poor, now would be the time to prioritize him in all formats, but specifically in dynasty; he’s still only 27.
Walker Buehler’s Strikeout Problem
It’s a pretty fair assessment to make that Walker Buehler is considered a premier pitcher. With a 2.38 ERA and 6.4 innings per start, he’s living up to that billing.
Still, for someone of Buehler’s pedigree, I can’t help but be surprised by his modest 23.8 K%. Not only is that below his 27.7% career baseline, but it’s particularly low given the current strikeout environment. Is there something to take away from this? Let’s take a closer look.
Buehler is in fact missing less bats (11.6%), but his 29.5% called strike + whiff rate (CSW%) is right on line with his career norms. Really, it’s all been about his execution with two strikes:
With two strikes, Buehler isn’t burying his curveball as much (1.82 ft) and has elevated his cutter more, though these are very small sample sizes. The lack of whiffs on his offspeed pitches (23.1% whiff CRV, 17.1% whiff SL) is concerning, but there isn’t any particular reason why outside of inconsistent command. Considering that his overall whiff rate (25.9%) isn’t too dissimilar to previous seasons, I’d expect this to be more due to small-sample size noise than anything else. Yes, it can be easy to get impatient with the inconsistency with regards to the strikeouts, but he doesn’t allow walks and has a very strong track record, so there is no reason to not expect him to figure things out soon.
A Week To Forget For Jackson Kowar; Worried About The Royals Rotation?
In the 2018 draft, the Royals drafted college pitchers Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Jackson Kowar in an attempt to build a strong young rotation to anchor their rebuild. With Kowar promoted to the MLB to start on Monday, all members of their rotation have debuted at one point or another.
Sadly, things have not gone as planned. Kowar combined for two innings pitched in his two starts, struggling with command both in terms of walks (5 BB in 19 batters faced) and a lot of pitches in the heart of the zone. I’d expect him to obviously improve from those numbers, but he’s also a fastball-changeup pitcher, which places much more pressure on improved command moving forward. That’s something that a similar pitcher, Bubic, has struggled with, who also relies on two pitches and poor command has led to less-than-ideal results (20.2% K, 11.5% BB).
Singer, meanwhile, has performed the best off the bunch, but relies exclusively on his sinker and slider, which increases his volatility and limits his overall “upside” (23.6% K, 8.2% BB). On the other hand, while Lynch has the deepest arsenal, but there also concerns by the overall quality of his “stuff” and his ability to consistently miss bats.
There is a lot of reason to be excited about Kansas City’s young rotation moving forward. That said, are any of these pitchers premium dynasty assets? I’m not sure the pay-off is there for any of them from a strikeout perspective to overcome the general volatility associated with throwing fewer pitches and mediocre K-BB ratios. The ballpark is a nice benefit, but this week was a nice reminder of some of the limitations of the pitching staff as a whole from a fantasy perspective.
The Astros’ Refusal To Strike Out and How It Opens Up Opportunities In Fantasy
The narrative that baseball is a “three-true outcomes” sport is true, but not all teams have bought in. The Astros have had a very impressive offense with a 122 wRC+, but they haven’t gotten there in the conventional way.
Houston is striking out just 18.4% of the time. For perspective, the difference between them and the second-lowest team (Royals, 22.1%) is the same difference between Kansas City and the Brewers, who are striking out at the 5th-highest rate. With that in mind, it’s not a surprise that they lead the league in both batting average (.274) and on-base percentage (.344).
Why is this important for fantasy? Well, it represents a teaching moment. We’re always enamored with those with elite batted-ball data, and if you got the Astros’ player pages, you won’t find that. In addition, many of them are overachieving their expected statistics. That said, this is an issue where expected statistics fail to tell the whole story.
If Kyle Tucker continues to only strike out at a 16.2% rate, then he’s one of the premium fantasy assets out there in dynasty. Furthermore, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel are all likely to be under-represented by their quality-of-contact metrics. The power production those four players provide has been inconsistent, but if they continue to make a lot of contact and draw walks, they’re going to get on base at a very high rate. With this being easily the most stable area of play, as well as the ballpark they play in (though Correa is a pending free agent), their respective floors are extremely high. These are the types of safe contributors you need on your team to balance out having more high-risk/high-reward players, and I’d push back on the narrative these players don’t also have high ceilings: when they’re able to hit for power, they’re premium players at their respective positions. With regards especially to Bregman and Correa, who are the youngest of the bunch, I’d consistently be looking out for opportunities to acquire them.
Random Relievers of The Week
Now, it is time for my favorite segment of the week: highlight “random relievers”. There were a lot of options for this week’s edition, though I want to turn my attention to South Beach. With the Marlins at the bottom of the NL East, there is a decent chance they could trade some of their veteran relievers at the trade deadline. This opens up opportunities for their younger relievers, and both of those players would be intriguing options.
Sadly, Anthony Bender does not throw a curveball which would have made his name perfect, but he ultimately wins our hearts based on his overall arsenal. He works with primary a sinker and slider, and the two pitches accomplish different goals. The sinker, for instance, may not miss bats (13%) but it’s inducing ground balls at a 60% rate. Meanwhile, when he needs to finish off hitters, he’s able to go to an exceptional slider:
The slider is inducing whiffs at a 38.9% rate and is a true wipeout pitch against righties. I’m a little worried about his abilities to get lefties out, but he’s made up for it thus far with called strikes/ground balls with the sinkers. In situations where teams have a lot of righties, Miami should continue to be more confident in him getting holds and situational saves, making him interesting from a fantasy standpoint.
Bender isn’t the only first-year reliever getting a chance at the major-league level this year: rule-5 pick Zach Pop has pitched in 21.2 innings thus far. Overall, unlike Bender, the results haven’t been as pretty (6.65 ERA), but he’s still striking out 24.5% of the batters he’s facing with just a 7.1% walk rate; never trust reliever ERAs!
Pop, unlike Bender, has much more success inducing whiffs with his sinker (25.7%), which is why he throws it 60.5% of the time:
A sinker over 95 MPH with an extreme amount of vertical movement down? That’s an excellent “turbo sinker”, and it’s not the only pitch in his arsenal; his slider, which features above-average vertical drop and horizontal movement, is missing bats at a 44.7% rate. In the minors, he developed a track record of inducing ground balls at absurd rate while limiting home runs, and it makes sense given his arsenal. I’ll take his 3.43 K/BB ratio and 55% ground ball rate any day of the week, and expect ERA regression as the season progresses. If so, he actually might be who Miami eventually lets close games should they trade their veterans.
Other Notes:
The Angels now have a winning record despite being without Mike Trout, and Justin Upton and Max Stassi are a major reason why. Not only is Upton hitting for more power (13.7%) barrel rate, but his improvement in sprint speed (63rd percentile) suggests this may due to simply being healthy. With him currently batting leadoff for the Angels, he’s someone to have on your rosters. Stassi, meanwhile, is continuing his 2020 success when it comes to hitting for power and strong plate discipline, and has a strong defensive reputation; more playing time? With him also currently hitting in the middle of the Angels’ lineup, and the overall weak-hitting of the catcher position, there’s no reason not to take a shot on his small-sample improvements.
For the second straight start, Logan Gilbert was fantastic with a 36% CSW and 6-1 K-BB ratios while working 6.2 innings against Cleveland on Sunday. He’s continuing to induce more ground balls (47.1%) and has continued to improve in terms of avoiding the heart of the plate, in addition to throwing his ineffective curveball less. With a vertical fastball and superb slider, a massive velocity differential between his fastball and changeup, as well as a track record of command and durability, he remains arguably the top dynasty pitching prospect currently.
Quietly, Starling Marte has a .432 wOBA in 131 plate appearances this season. Him chasing less (29.9%) would be key when it comes to his ability to age gracefully, and would explain why he’s hitting for more power. The Marlins are an excellent spot for him since they give him opportunity to steal bases (8), but there’s also the chance he ends up in a favorable ballpark if traded, so, regardless, he’s a very useful asset for win-now teams.