Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a potential breakout outfielder, a rotation on the rise, and a mystifying outfield, this was quite an interesting week when it comes to intriguing fantasy storylines. Without further adieu, let us break it all down!
Random Relievers of The Week
This week’s version of “random relievers of the week” finds us in the AL East, where two very different relievers have stood out with their overall power arsenal and quality of performance.
The Orioles certainly are a rebuilding team, but their bullpen actually has multiple interesting relievers that could be under-the-radar trade chips for them. Of the bunch, the one I want to hone in on is Cole Sulser. In 21.2 innings this season, the 31-year-old currently is striking batters out at a 38.4% rate, as well as walking batters at just a 9.3% rate. That’s intriguing, but we’ve seen relievers go on hot stretches before, so what makes Sulser stand out? It’s the diversity of his pitching arsenal. In addition to a vertical fastball that he is elevating (2.94 ft pitch height), Sulser incorporates a changeup (30.9%) and slider (11.9%) into his arsenal, and he’ll even throw an occasional curveball. That’s a much deeper arsenal that what you’d expect from an average reliever, and the slider is the only offering where he’s struggling to induce whiffs with. Furthermore, he has increased the velocity separation on his fastball and offspeed, is actually more effective versus lefties, and has gone from a horizontal changeup to an elite changeup in terms of the vertical movement it possesses. He got some save opportunities last year, so hopefully the same can happen with continued effectiveness moving forward.
Tampa Bay has become quite the common place for under-the-radar relievers to emerge, and that hasn’t changed this season. Today, let’s focus on Jeffrey Springs, whom the team traded a legitimate catching prospect in Ronaldo Hernandez to obtain from the Red Sox (as well as Chris Mazza). Clearly, the team saw something they liked in the 28-year-old’s 28.3% K rate in 20 innings last season, and that number has only improved (30.8%) this season. Interestingly, this has correlated with the lefty throwing more sliders than ever, yet that is his least effective pitch in terms of results. On the other hand, the more traditional he has made it in terms of movement (less sharp, more vertical), the more effective it has been, and his changeup has remained a righty neutralizer. The key, however, has been the increased effectiveness of the sinker. It’s currently yielding a 31.7% whiff rate, in addition to inducing chases at a 34.5% rate. Is this simply due to exposing it less? That might be the case, but we now have two years of data of him being an effective reliever who strikes batters out, induces ground balls, and limits walks. If your league values holds, he’s someone to keep a close eye on.
What To Make Of The Mariners Outfield
The Mariners appear to have an extremely bright future ahead. We’ll get to one of their young starting pitchers shortly, but their outfield is also a specific area of focus given the strengths of the organization.
Obviously, it all starts with Jarred Kelenic, who is widely considered to be one of the premier young players in the sport. Unfortunately, after finally being promoted to the majors, things didn’t go quite as planned for the 21-year-old. Not only does he currently have a 14 wRC+, but he was just demoted to Triple-A and had been a well-below replacement level (-0.8 fWAR) player this season.
So, is there hope for the future? In my opinion, you shouldn’t take away much with Kelenic’s early struggles, outside of how hard baseball truly is. Despite just a 22% whiff rate, he ran a 28.3% strikeout rate, and the numbers (64.6% zone swing, 52% meatball swing, 26.1% 1st pitch swing) suggest that this was due to a overly passive approach. That is a much more fixable issue than simply having a bat path that can’t handle vertical fastballs, a problem chasing, or physical limitations. I certainly wouldn’t expect Kelenic to continue to run an absurdly high 19.7% called strike rate in the future, and upon being recalled to the majors again, I’d expect much more power and an overall more aggressive approach. Then, we’ll be getting the player we all were hoping to see right away.
Plus, Kyle Lewis, last year’s rookie of the year, might miss the rest of the season due to a meniscus injury. Although the 25-year-old’s overall offensive output had taken a step back, his underlying metrics were all about in line with where they were last season. As a hitter who doesn’t chase, hits for power, and provides some value on the bases, he’s someone I’d look to target in dynasty leagues, though I’m not sure how inclined owners are to move him.
In the meantime, this will open up consistent playing time for Taylor Trammell and Jake Fraley. Trammell has the higher prospect pedigree and steals bases, but he also is whiffing on 35% of the fastballs he’s seeing, and I surmise that his bat path may be too “grooved” to handle elevated pitches. Thus, he’ll run very high strikeout rates, which limits his value substantially in batting average formats; I’m not sure how much power we’ll see from him either. Fraley, on the other hand, also has strong plate discipline, and has demonstrated the ability to hit for power and steal bases in the minors. I’m not saying he’s the better of the two, yet I’d definitely keep tabs on him- he’s projected by Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections (FGDC) to be roughly a league average hitter, which makes him a viable deep-league asset if he provides value on the bases.
A Big Week For The Astros Rotation
By now, I hope you’re aware of the season that Luis Garcia is having for the Astros. After two standout performances in which he combined for just two earned runs, in addition to a 14-3 K-BB ratio, in 13 innings, he currently boasts a 3.58 K-BB ratio, in addition to a 31.2% called-strike whiff rate. Remember, he’s just 24-years-old! After shutting down the Dodgers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, I think it’s safe to say he’s been tested, and outside of future workload (will Houston eventually monitor his innings?), there isn’t much to be concerned about. His cutter, inducing a 50.2% whiff rate, is a premier pitch right now, and with a five-pitch arsenal full of effective offerings, he’s well-equipped to consistently strike batters out regardless of the team he’s facing. With continued improved fastball location, weeks like this will only continue to become more common.
Even as Garcia has been succeeding, Houston’s overall pitching staff has been rather inconsistent. That is what makes the return of Jose Urquidy so critical for them. Also on a two-start week against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, he struck out 14 batters while walking just one, as to be expected from a pitcher who constantly posts such strong K-BB ratios. Yes, he gave up six runs to Toronto, but outside of the two home runs he allowed, it was an overall productive performance where he continued to miss bats with a more effective arsenal. Given that he generally goes under the radar and is coming off of a performance that may be overanalyzed, the 26-year-old is a clear target in all dynasty leagues. He’s demonstrated the baseline of exceptional command, and if he continues to miss enough bats, he’ll be a very reliable member of your pitching staff. High-floor pitchers without much volatility tend to be undervalued by the marketplace, and that’s where it is up to the dynasty player to take advantage of the opportunity to add a quality player.
The Eccentric Rise of Cedric Mullins
This weekend, I was filling out an All-Star game ballot, which was going about as planned: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and the expected stars included.
Suddenly, though, I started to take a look at the American League’s outfield, which, to my astonishment, revealed a clear deserving candidate to be the starting center fielder. No, it’s not an injured Mike Trout, but Cedric Mullins?
Heading into this season, the Orioles outfielder had been a below-replacement level player, and it was a surprise that he even entered the year as a part-time starter for them. Now, though, he’s going to start in the All Star game potentially. Where did that come from?
We often talk about switch hitters with one preferred side, pondering why they don’t just take every plate appearance from a greater place of comfort. Well, Mullins will be quite the demonstration of the potential positive effects of doing so moving forward. With just a 26 wRC+ in his career as a right-handed hitter, there was very little utility for him not to just hit from the left side, so offensive growth would be expected from that. Nevertheless, that’s not all the 26-year-old has done. In fact, he’s decreased his chase rate to 26.4%, is whiffing at a very low rate (18.6%), and is also hitting fewer ground balls (43%) than ever before.
This optimization of contact has led to a significantly improved 5.5% barrel rate, which might not be overly impressive, yet is more than passable given his other qualities. The lack of whiffs gives him an extremely high floor in terms of batting average, while the walks complete an on-base profile. From there, you add in the steals he’ll provide, the sufficient power he’ll have given he ballpark he plays in, and the everyday playing time he could receive just from his defense alone, and there is a lot to like with Mullins. Even if the lack of power limits the chances he’ll win you your league on your own, I see very little reason to suggest that he won’t be a very effective contributor moving forward. Projected for a 105 wRC+ and to finish as a 20/20 player by FGDC, he’s likely going to be at least a top-20 outfielder in the future. Always be open to opportunities, but don’t just look at the limited MLB track record as a reason to see this as a definite fluke.
Progress For Logan Gilbert
In addition to their exciting collection of outfielders, the Mariners have also done a fabulous job establish a deep group of young pitchers in their farm system. At the top of the pecking order? Logan Gilbert, who the team is hoping can be their ace moving forward.
By failing to go past four innings in each of his first three starts, the 24-year-old didn’t exactly quite up to a great pace. However, it generally takes pitchers time to get accumulated, and last week was a clear sign of progress for the Stetson product: 11 IP, 12 Ks, and 3 ER vs the A’s and Angels.
Something that will be telling for Gilbert is the deployment of his offspeed. He possesses a vertical fastball that should be effective enough with improved command, though it’s his slider (36% whiff) that has been his best pitch thus far. On the contrary, I’m not a fan of his curveball, which possesses a lot of “looping” action and is much more hittable. He moved away from the curveball versus the Angels on Sunday, and if he does so moving forward, he’ll have a much more optimized arsenal. Even if he doesn’t, his combination of command, durability, and a vertical arsenal that will induce enough whiffs makes him arguably the top dynasty pitching prospect right now.
Below Is Video Footage From Prospects Live on Logan Gilbert In 2019:
Ketel + Jazz: The Electric Standout Second Basemen
Second base was generally been a weak spot in fantasy, and although shortstop prospects will move there over time, it’s unclear how much talent will be added to the position moving forward.
Taking this scarcity into account, stars at the position become even more valuable, which is the hope with two players: Ketel Marte and Jazz Chisholm.
Between a pedestrian 2020 season and a hamstring injury that forced him out of action for over a month, there was certainly reason to be concerned about Marte’s fantasy value moving forward. Well, he currently has a 175 wRC+ and already has been worth a win above replacement in just 23 games. While his power output isn’t where it was in 2019, that’s to be expected given the different run environments, and I feel comfortable saying he’s one of the top power hitters at the position currently. Still, what makes Marte a very reliable asset moving forward is the lack of strikeouts. Currently in the 98th percentile in whiff%, the floor he provides from a batting average standpoint is extremely high, but he doesn’t need to adopt an overly aggressive approach to limit strikeouts. You’d like for him to provide more value via steals, but his offensive value is through the roof.
As for Chisholm, it was worrisome to see him struggle in May (87 wRC+), especially with the major plate discipline splits (2.7% BB, 43.2% K). It, therefore, was nice to see him have a multi-homer week. Still, overall, the numbers suddenly don’t look as pretty for him. With a 32.9% strikeout rate and a strange approach (passive, but with a lot of chases), there is a lot of pressure on him to walk and make the most of his contact, but it’s clear power + speed will be where his value comes from. To that end, a 12% barrel rate and nine stolen bases is encouraging, though he’s much more volatile.
Overall, both of these players are electric, but in a much different way. I still trust Chisholm for the long term, but it shows how distinct two players can be from a reliability standpoint when your on-base skills are much more established.
Other Small Notes From The Week
In deep leagues, Odubel Herrera is an outfielder that should provide value. Back from a domestic violence suspension, he’s currently boasting a 116 wRC+ and hitting at the top of the Phillies’ lineup, which is an exciting combination. With less chases (25.9%) and whiffs (21.5%), perhaps this is a more optimized version of himself to expect moving forward, though as long as the top of the lineup, you’re not just banking on those changes carrying over 100%. Either way, there’s clear upside without much risk.
How about Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval? His 32 swinging strikes on Sunday were the highest a pitcher has totaled for the season, and while he won’t dominate in this fashion every start, he is someone worth keeping very close tabs on. We’ve seen the effects increased usage of an effective changeup can have on a pitcher with multiple Marlins arms, and Sandoval is now adopting a similar approach. He’s increase his usage of the pitch to 35.7%, and overall has a rather efficient arsenal — only the fastball has been consistently hit hard. He already had been an effective pitcher heading into year, and I can see him with an upward trajectory moving forward. I won’t compare him to Pablo Lopez, who has much better command, but I will note that this type of blueprint isn’t unprecedented at all.
This was a fabulous week, just for the fact that Ke’Bryan Hayes is back in action! I will always cater towards players with clear contact skills, which is what the 24-year-old has demonstrated during his brief MLB stint and in the minors. He will need to continue to not chase and lifts the ball enough to make good on his hard contact. That said, he also is a rare commodity in terms of his contact + speed combination, which is the type of “safe” profile I love.
Coming back from Tommy John surgery, expectations were high for Jameson Taillon, even after going from a pitcher’s friendly park in Pittsburgh to Yankee Stadium. Simply by K-BB ratio (25.8% K, 7.1% BB), you’d figure he’d be having a career year. However, a 1.7 HR/9 has led to a 5.09 ERA and 4.43 FIP, which is a FIP FGDC projects him to finish at. By going from a ground-ball inducing pitcher to a more vertical one, the increased whiffs are coming at more fly balls induced, but his fastball (32.5% whiff) has been arguably his best offering. Rather, it’s his curveball and changeup that have let him down, as he’s struggling to burying both and has great changed their movement patterns (curveball more vertical, changeup less drop). In a redraft league, I’d be skeptical of Taillon learning to command his arsenal enough to make the most of it this season. A year removed from Tommy John and with more time to adjust, though, I could see a step up, a la Yusei Kikuchi this season. I’ll always trust the ratios when it comes to projecting long-term success, so although the home runs may always be an issue in New York, I’d want to inquire while his value is at its lowest.
Catching continues to be a scarce commodity in fantasy, so it is important to constantly keep tabs on young catchers. With Mitch Garver on the injured list, Ryan Jeffers is getting another chance to prove himself in Minnesota. He’s definitely shown throughout his professional career to have raw power, though I’ll be monitoring his ability his contact ability at the MLB level. His issues haven’t been with elevated fastballs thus far, so I’m somewhat hopeful that he won’t be a liability from a batting average perspective. Speaking of whiffing, Cal Raleigh isn’t doing much of that in Triple-A. The Mariners prospect currently has a 162 wRC+ in Triple-A, and could be called up soon for Seattle. Similar to Jeffers, his power is legitimate, so we’ll want to continue to study his contact quantity before and once being called up.