Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a bunch of intriguing under-the-radar outfielders performing well, two former top pitching prospects struggling, and the progression of an exciting young outfielder, there is a lot to get to this week. Plus, it’s officially the start of the Wander Franco era in Tampa Bay. Well, at least until those arbitration years kick in. Anyways, let us get into the notes!
Under-The-Radar Outfielders To Target
Sometimes, players don’t immediately came to the majors and dominate. Meanwhile, contributors don’t always have to carry high draft pedigree. The ability to understand this and look at the profile, not the name, can allow you to find sleepers to target in your dynasty leagues.
This week, there are four outfielders that have caught my attention. Well, the initial plan was five, but the Giants had to ruin everything by sending Lamonte Wade Jr. back down to Triple-A. They face three lefties this week, so I assume he’ll be back to showcase his strong plate discipline and on-base abilities soon at the top of their lineup, but we’ll put him on hold for now.
Instead, let us start elsewhere in the NL West. It can be hard to look past a Baseball Savant page with a lot of blue, but if you can, you can benefit from the skillset than Rockies outfielder Yonathan Daza provides. With most of the fantasy community participating in category leagues, finding players who can hit for average is critical, and that’s what I expect Daza to do. Sure, his expected batting average of .270 is much lower than his .328 actual average, I don’t buy that regression is coming. Only 22% of his batted balls are a fly ball or pop up, he goes the other way (34.4%) much more than the average hitter, and he makes a lot of contact (21.5%). This is the makings of a high-average hitter than outperforms his expected statistics, especially while playing in Colorado, and he’s also going to provide you with some stolen bases.
In need of more power? That’s where Chas McCormick can help you. The 26-year-old is getting a chance currently to play in Houston, and has performed well with a 114 wRC+ and .265 isolated power (ISO). His expected statistics aren’t great, but, once again, they also are likely to be doing a disservice to the player. Thus far, McCormick has gotten “under” 37.2% of his batted balls, but his pop-up rate is just 5.4%. Playing at a hitter-friendly park in Houston, his ability to hit the ball repeatedly means more opportunities to take advantage of the Crawford Boxes in left field, and with 94th percentile sprint speed, he’s the type of power-speed option you’d want to target; in on-base leagues, his ability to draw walks also holds extra value.
Yet, McCormick’s high strikeout tendencies mean he won’t hit for a very high average. Luckily, that won’t be a concern for Indians outfielder Harold Ramirez. Formerly of the Marlins, Cleveland has given him a chance to settle their consistently bleak outfield situation, and he’s done exactly that. With a 115 wRC+ and .341 weighted on-base average (wOBA), he’s been a key piece for them, and actually has found a place in the middle of their order. Any time you have a 94th percentile max exit velocity and an 88th percentile sprint speed, I’m going to be intrigued, but Ramirez does more than that. With just a 10.2% strikeout rate and a lower-loft swing, he’s going to naturally hit for a high average, especially since he’s someone opposing defenses cannot shift against. Plus, despite a high ground ball rate, he’s still shown enough power (9.6% barrel rate), and he’s always a threat to steal a base. In on-base leagues, his inability to draw walks (2.9%) hurts, but he has the ability to help you tremendously with your batting average and stolen bases, and, for now, with home runs as well.
A few weeks ago, I watched the Angels on TV, and expected Jared Walsh to follow up Shohei Ohtani. To my surprise, though, it’s actually Taylor Ward who is hitting third for them currently. Now, there are some studies that say that hitting third isn’t indicative of being the premier hitter in the lineup, but for managers, it certainly is still a demonstration of faith. So far, Ward has made good on that lineup placement. The 27-year-old currently has a a 119 wRC+ and .208 ISO, which is backed up by his peripherals. Currently, 23.5% of his batted balls have been either defined as a barrel or solid contact, and he’s shown the ability to make good swing decisions (66.6% zone swing, 24.5% chase). There isn’t really a weakness to his game, and I expect continued optimization of power with some stolen base (79th percentile sprint speed) potential. With that said, he’s someone that will provide you with a boost in multiple categories, especially if he continues to hit high enough in the lineup.
I would rank these players, but it really depends on where you are currently. Need batting average? Daza and Ramirez are your best bets. Power? That’s McCormick’s game. A bit of everything? Ward comes into play. The main theme here is that just because these players have been overlooked in the past, doesn’t mean they should be moving forward as well. Add them now before the public takes note.
The Encouraging Progression of Akil Baddoo
When the Tigers selected Akil Baddoo in the rule-5 draft, many were surprised. After all, this was a player with just 131 plate appearances in High-A, and his time there was nothing special (103 wRC+, 29.8% strikeout rate, .290 OBP). Expecting him to suddenly perform at the MLB level, therefore, would have been silly.
Yet, Baddoo garnered a lot of attention by being one of the main reasons of optimism for an otherwise struggling team, demonstrating an exciting style of play with a lot of speed and power. Unfortunately, though, there have been major concerns about the 22-year-old’s contact abilities. It’s something he struggled with in the minors, and it’s not a surprise it’s been a problem at the MLB level. What is exciting, though, is his progression when it comes to adjusting to higher-level pitching:
This new-found contact, even with less hard-hit balls, has also led to an overall stronger offensive output as well:
For me, the most encouraging aspect of Baddoo’s improvement has been how he’s fared against fastballs. In April, he had a 44.3% whiff rate on those offerings. Now, it’s down to 18.8%. As a lefty, he’s going to deal with less breaking balls, but his ability to hit elevated velocity will be critical. If he keeps this up, I think we’re looking at a player who is especially intriguing for fantasy based on his ability to steal bases (8), hit for power, and, in OBP leagues, not chase (24.5%). Remember, he’s just 22 years old.
The Debut of Matt Manning
Speaking of the Tigers, despite their lack of team success, I’d argue this has been a fun year for them in a lot of ways. Baddoo is progressing, but, mainly it’s due to their starting pitching. Between the progression of Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, as well as Spencer Turnbull’s success, they’re quite strong suddenly when it comes to their rotation for the future. Hopefully, though, there’s even more on the way.
On Thursday, Detroit continued on showcasing their rotation of the future, promoting Matt Manning to start against the Angels. For those unfamiliar with Manning, the former 9th overall pick in the 2016 draft is someone that many believe is the best of the organization’s crop of young pitching, which means expectations are very high for the 23-year-old.
Overall, Manning did …. fine? In 5 innings of work, he struck out three, walked two, allowed two runs, and faced 21 batters faced overall. For a debut, we can work with that.
What I care more about, though, is the arsenal. Manning threw his fastball 68.8% of the time, and while the pitch is fine, he located it more down in the zone and you’d hope he demonstrates more feel for his breaking ball over time. Both his slider and curveball are vertical pitches, but he didn’t throw them competitively enough, with his changeup being his west performing pitch of the bunch. Hopefully, we see more feel for the offspeed pitches moving forward, although I’m skeptical of the fastball based on its lackluster shape (not a vertical-enough pitch). Really, though, my only reaction from this start is: let’s see more! He’ll take the mound next Wednesday against the Cardinals at home.
For a detailed report on Matt Manning, our own Jake Boes wrote him up earlier when he caught him live in Triple-A.
The Curious Fall of Jesus Luzardo and Spencer Howard
Once former top pitching prospects. Now, unable to even stick in the bullpen. What has happened to Jesus Luzardo and Spencer Howard?
Let’s start with Luzardo, who is quite the case study. Expected to be the ace of the A’s staff coming into the year, he now finds himself in Triple-A. In 28 innings pitched as a starter, he performed fine (4.63 FIP, 2.5 K/BB), but not where he was expect to be. Then, he went to the injured list due to a finger injury suffered while playing a video game, and since coming back, he has certainly struggled in the bullpen.
Howard, meanwhile, has missed bats at the MLB level (29.2%), yet also carries a 16.2 BB%, and has been moved out of the bullpen. Plus, even as a starter, he never pitched more than four innings in a start, while his velocity declined greatly when working multiple times through the order.
Should you be selling your stock in these two players? For Luzardo, I’m less inclined to do so. Fangraphs’ Depth Chart projections (FGDC) still see him as a 4.08 FIP pitcher moving forward, and he has consistently performed at a high level. He has two elite weapons in his curveball (55.4% whiff) and changeup (30.4% whiff) as put-away pitches, and mixing them in more and going with a softer arsenal would be beneficial. We’ve seen pitches optimize themselves later on, and although there’s bullpen risk, I still have some hope for him making an impact after sorting things out in the minors.
For Howard, I’m less optimistic. Projections like him less due to the walk rate, and his track record is a) shorter than Luzardo and b) mainly came at levels he was old for. He has been aggressive attacking the zone (51.4%), but unless he ticks down on his fastball usage (71.5%), he is leaving untapped potential on the table. The ballpark and bullpen risk also factor in here greater than Luzardo.
That said, I wouldn’t necessarily trade either one of these pitchers right now. Their respective stocks at their lowest points, and given their pedigree, they’ll be given chances to stick in the rotation eventually. With less fastballs and improved command, the hope is they’ll be able to make good on the talent that got many within the industry extremely optimistic about their future outlook.
Random Relievers Of The Week
The Orioles and Pirates are likely going to be aggressive when it comes to trading relievers at the trade deadline, which opens up opportunities for recently-acquired relievers that are thriving this year.
Let’s start in Baltimore. Akil Baddoo isn’t the only rule-5 pick that’s made an impact this year; Tyler Wells has been a pleasant surprise for them, posting a 30.5% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 32 innings for the Orioles this season. It’s rare for relievers to have a deep arsenal, but the 26-year-old features five different pitches, with his top-three (fastball, slider, changeup) all yielding whiff rates of 29.5% or higher. My favorite pitch of the bunch? A vertical fastball he leans on about 55% of the time:
As a former starting pitcher, Wells has worked multiple innings several times this season out of the bullpen for the Orioles, which gives him intriguing fantasy value right there. There’s really no weakness to exploit with his arsenal, and he’s someone to keep a close eye on as a true versatile weapon in Baltimore’s bullpen that they can use in any situation.
Looking for more of a traditional one-inning pitcher who accumulates saves? That’s where David Bednar comes into play. The Pirates are likely to trade closer Richard Rodriguez at the deadline, and when that happens, the 26-year-old should be the beneficiary of those new opportunities. Acquired from the Padres in the Joe Musgrove trade, he’s posted an absurd 33.6% strikeout rate with a very reasonable 7.5% walk rate, which correlates very well with the numbers he’s produced in the past. Most relievers have two-pitch mixes that lead to platoon splits, but for Bednar, this is not a concern.
Here is his curveball:
Complemented with a splitter:
Both of these pitches generate whiffs over 45% of the time, and it’s not as though his fastball (26.7% whiff) is a slouch either! That powerful three-pitch mix is something that I want to bet on, and in short order, he should be Pittsburgh’s top source of saves for the foreseeable future.
Other Notes
The catcher position is always difficult to find offensive contributors, which makes Tyler Stephenson intriguing. The 24-year-old doesn’t miss often (6 SwStr%), doesn’t chase (18%), and has always hit for a high average, which means a lot of on-base potential. You wish he’d hit fewer ground balls (55.4%) to tap into his raw power, but at least you’re guaranteed a high average based on his even sprays and contact skills. Hopefully, he continues to see more playing time over Tucker Barnhart in Cincinnati, and the same is true for Diamondbacks catcher Daulton Varsho. The 24-year-old has rare speed for the position and has been a strong minor-league performer with regards to power and on-base ability, and might get more of a chance with Carson Kelly out through the all-star break with a broken wrist.
I wouldn’t be worried about Alek Manoah! He only pitched 3.1 innings in Baltimore and gave up 5 earned runs, but also posted strong ratios (6 K, 1 BB, 30% CSW). The home runs were a problem (4), yet that’s always the danger of the ballpark.
Shane McLanahan made it through six innings, striking out 8 and walking just one batter in the process. With Tyler Glasnow down for most of the season, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them ramp up the young lefty’s workload, meaning more quality-start potential moving forward. That’s quite exciting for those with shares of him.