Brendan Rodgers, Francisco Lindor, Walker Buehler, and a lot of complex topics covered on this week's edition of dynasty fantasy baseball notes
Cold Water: Prospects Season Has Returned
Philthy Projections: Hitters Outside the NFBC Top-400
Prospect Avalanche: Deciding Whom To Spend Your FAAB On
Panning For Gold: Austin Riley Has No Time For Cold Water
Panning For Gold: Cold Water For Your Thoughts
Photo courtesy of Bryan Green
You mad? Don’t be, for Prospects Jesus, King of the Couch Scouts has returned to feed his loyal followers with the same Sunday Notes you’ve been getting from yours truly since Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s pops was playing for the Expos.
This week, Tigers RHP Casey Mize, last year’s 1.1 pick, was promoted to Double-A. The right-hander will make his Erie debut in Altoona on Monday night, making it must watch MiLB.TV. Having caught Mize a few weeks ago now, I came away impressed, sitting 94-96 on his fastball, locating in all four quadrants. His primary secondary was a slider in the 86-88 range with tight break coming in on lefties, he tended to lead with his fastball, but wasn’t scared to drop his breaking ball on hitters early in counts. His put away pitch is his much discussed splitter, a true 70 offering that drops off the table, but shows enough command to bury just below the zone without bouncing it. One of the better out pitches I’ve seen in recent years. Mize has it all: the body, the stuff, and the elite command and control. We talked a little about Mize during our podcast with Eno Sarris this week. Listen in to hear us pit Mize versus Mike Soroka, Alex Reyes, Chris Paddack and more. Now that we’ve touched on my new man crush, let’s see what else is happening in the MiLB.
Let’s put out some flames of hate with some cold water! Hustle hard, stack paper. Hi hater!
Josh Ockimey, 1B (BOS) - I’ve never been a huge Ockimey fan, I felt that bat speed was only average, the path was long, and he never flashed as much power as you the body promised. As much as I have my concerns, Ockimey is enjoying his time with the MLB balls in Triple-A. Through 19 games Josh-Ock is hitting .250/.416/.617, five homers, and a 19.5 BB%. The strikeout rate is improved to a tad under 25 percent, and that’s hand in hand with the highest power output of his career. Cold Water: He’s obviously blocked at the highest level, but for how long? There’s certainly a chance he gets a shot at the first base job in 2020 if the Red Sox commit to Chavis as a second baseman. Then again this might just be a hot streak and the player could slide back to the status quo.
Keston Hiura, 2B (MIL) - I guess questioning his approach last week set off a fire in Hiura as he’s been on a tear the last week. Going 10-for-23, with six extra base hits including three homers. The nicest development was the two strikeouts, though I’m not sure it really should have been a huge concern, Hiura can hit. Cold Water: He’s hot, but the cold streak isn’t too far in the rearview. Hopefully with a few more weeks like this his strikeout rate stabilizes.
Wander Franco, SS (TB) - He turned 18 on March 1 and he’s dominating the Midwest League just as we suspected he would. He’s hitting .329/.412/.600 with six extra base hits in the last week. Actually since Tuesday, Franco is seeing beach balls to the tune of .529/.591/.1.235. The sweetest numbers might be his 9.4 K% and 12.9 BB%. The swing is as pretty as you can imagine, short to the ball, lightning fast, with a big whirlwind follow through. Cold Water: Ain’t no cold water, this boy can ball!
Nolan Gorman, 3B (STL) - Does anyone feel bad about drafting Nolan Gorman anywhere? He connected for his fifth and sixth homers on Friday, popping one in each leg of the doubleheader. Matt Thompson had looks on Gorman earlier this season, and he’s as impressive as the numbers state. Cold Water: There’s a fair amount of swing and miss, and he needs to learn to balance his aggression with patience.
Griffin Canning, RHP (LAA) - The right-hander will make his long awaited debut on Tuesday. Is Canning one of the best pitching prospects we have the least amount of enthusiasm for? His fastball sits mid-90s, touching 97, he mixes a plus slider, a promising changeup, and an average curveball. I think Canning has shot at sticking around, and that makes him worth an add.
Heliot Ramos, OF (SF) - The Giants outfielder flashed a glimpse of something special, and then he promptly hit the disabled list. I was chatting with Baseball Prospectus’ Wilson Karaman who caught Ramos recently, and came away impressed with the bat speed, raw athleticism, and defensive ability. Cold Water: He’s still overly aggressive and can swing himself into bad situations. It’s also the Cal League, so you can take some of the numbers with a grain of salt. That said, there’s been marked improvement year over year.
Kyle Tucker, OF (HOU) - It’s been a tough time to own Tucker in dynasty, everything is hung with a giant question mark. There have been few answers, as Tucker’s play has been uninspiring at Triple-A. Not to fear noble owners, Tucker has homered in three of his last four games, and four of his last eight, collecting hits in seven of his last nine. Cold Water: This might be the perfect time for Tucker to breakout, as he’s on the 40-man, and Yordan Alvarez isn’t.
Yordan Alvarez, OF (HOU) - Speak of the devil, Alvarez has been on fire this season, and questions of a promotion day build daily. Jake Kaplan of The Athletic had an excellent read on the ramifications of such a move, and why it’s a little more complicated. I know, I know, way to throw cold water on the hottest MLB ready prospect. If it makes you feel any better, he went 4-for-5 last night driving in three, and connecting for his 11th homer, tying him with Kevin Cron for the PCL lead.
Kevin Cron, 1B (ARI) - What do we do with 26-year-old Kevin Cron? He’s showing improved plate discipline (16.9 K%/12.4 BB%), hits the ball in the air a ton (28.4 LD%/43.3% FB%), and he’s continued to spray the ball to all fields. So what’s not to like besides the age? Cold Water: That’s kind of what scares me, is he an underappreciated asset buried by the Diamondbacks, or simply a Quad-A type?
Austin Riley, 1B/3B (ATL) - Started at first base for the third time this season, he went crazy with threes as he homered for the third consecutive game. Riley is blocked at the major league level, but an injury might open opportunity for the power hitter to show he’s ready. Cold Water: He was struggling mightily in the early part of the season, needs to show consistency if he hopes to break in with an everyday role.
Luis Urias, 2B (SD) - I feel your pain, I invested in Urias heavily late in redraft leagues and own him in a few dynasty leagues. There’s hope… Urias slugged two homers last night for the first multi-home run game of his career. Now if only Padres GM A.J. Preller would call him up and make Andy Green play him. Let the kids play! Cold Water: He’s never done much at the major league level to warrant playing time.
Jarred Kelenic, OF (SEA) - I’m no Mets fan, but God I wish he was still in the Mets system, really for selfish reasons. I might have to drive to West Virginia. If I catch a game like the one Kelenic had last night it might be worth the day of driving. What did he do last night? How about hit two homers, or better yet three in a little more than 24 hours. Over his last 10 games Kelenic is slashing .429/.489/.762 with three homers and three stolen bases. Cold Water: Most of his damage has come at home, as he’s hitting a putrid .171 in nine away games.
Nico Hoerner, SS (CHC) - Hit the 7-day, because nothing nice ever stays. Thank God it sounds like just a bad bruise and nothing serious. Likely looking at the minimum.
Brendan Rodgers, SS (COL) - Rodgers has been destroying AAA in his return trip, and enjoying the spoils of the MLB balls. He homered in both games of a doubleheader on Saturday, and is slashing .321/.398/.605 with five homers. Over his last ten games Rodgers is rocking a 1.192 OPS. The best number of all, might be the 10 walks to 15 strikeouts. If Rodgers can add the approach I always felt was missing in Hartford, he can be an impact bat. Cold Water: There’s a lot of options in Colorado in the middle infield, though Rodgers might be one of the rookies that earns a gig in Denver. I have a feeling it will take an injury to happen in 2019.
It’s about to be a surgical summer…
Sunday Starts To Watch
AAA: RHP Zac Gallen and his 0.36 ERA to Dell Diamond to face Round Rock. Should be a solid test with the aforementioned Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
AA: LHP Darwinzon Hernandez fresh off his MLB debut, is back in Portland and set to face LHP David Peterson and Binghamton.
A+: RHP Brady Singer faces off against RHP Eli Morgan and Lynchburg, but of course it’s not on MiLB.TV. The best alternative is LHP Ryan Rolison going at The Hanger against Visalia, the lefty pushed in his Cal League debut, and looks to keep it rolling in arguably the minors most difficult ballpark. Friend of the site John Calvagno wrote about his live looks on Rolison earlier this season. Be sure to check it out and all his great work from the Sally league.
Low-A: The newly re-charged LHP Ryan Weathers brings his new slider, to South Bend in the first leg of a Midwest League doubleheader. This game is on MiLB.TV, enjoy!
Player Battles: Carter Kieboom vs. Brendan Rodgers
Welcome back to “Player Battles: Elite Offensive Shortstop Edition.” Today we look into two of the top power bats in the middle infield, as we compare and contrast, inspect and debate the slugging duo of the Washington Nationals Carter Kieboom and the Colorado Rockies Brendan Rodgers. Fantasy value will weigh heavy on the minds of our judges. Chicks dig the longball, and both these lads can mash. It begs the question, “who will be the ladies/judges choice?”. Lets battle!
Previous battles:
Royce Lewis vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
Cristian Pache vs. Taylor Trammell
This battle feels squarely on my shoulders. Not only are Kieboom and Rodgers part of my system coverage here at Prospects Live, this battle also feeds into my Eastern League bias. There’s two questions that this debate boils down to for me.
1. Who has the stronger plate profile?
2. Who will stick at shortstop long term?
After plenty of research and in person observations, both of those superlatives belong to Kieboom. Despite being younger, and having less experience at the AA level, Kieboom’s approach and plate discipline are superior to Rodgers. Ultimately that’s the true dividing line between the two, because outside of that they rate very similarly. Both possess plus hit and power combos, mostly grading in the 55-60 range on that pair of tools. Both are average runners likely to lose a step as they mature and develop fully into middle of the order type bats.
From a purely production standpoint Kieboom has the advantage in walk rate, while Rodgers has him by 10 points in batting average and 30 points in slugging. When put in context it’s not much of a victory for Rodgers if at all. Why? Well the time in Lancaster during the first half of 2017 severely inflated his production. So at best I would call the slashline a wash.
This is obviously all somewhat rooted in number scouting, but I thought it was best to address what you know and can measure, versus my personal opinions on their actual hitting styles. At the plate Rodgers is super clean, free, and easy. There’s little effort in his swing, and he generates plus bat speed with his quick hands. This is what’s frustrating about Rodgers, from a bat to ball standpoint he’s one of the more talented hitters I’ve watched in recent years. The issue is he’s extremely aggressive, often swinging at bad pitches, and sometimes making contact with the wrong pitches. This often saves his K rate from climbing, but in lieu of walks and potentially better contact.
That’s not the case with Kieboom.
The Nationals shortstop also has a clean, easy swing with plus bat speed. He engages his lower half a little more with a leg kick, but his patience and pitch recognition is night and day from his Rockies counterpart. Does Rodgers perhaps possess more natural contact and power? Possibly, but it’s a negligible difference. This is simply a questions of talent vs. approach, ceiling vs. floor. That extends to the defensive side of the ball as well.
Keiboom and Rodgers are both blessed with plus arms, as well as some questions regarding their range. Rodgers is the more athletic of the two players, and can move well at times in the infield, but his reads are sub-par and he often gets himself out of position on deep plays from the hole. In my observations of Kieboom, he’s a lot cleaner at the position and uses his arm to his advantage. The Rockies obviously recognize this as they’ve moved Rodgers all over the infield over the last few seasons, logging a lot of time at third base. Ultimately I believe this means Rodgers moves off of short to third or second. Which gives Kieboom the greater defensive value.
In this is a tight battle, I could see a logic case for either, but Kieboom’s baseball IQ makes him the clear choice for me in fantasy and reality based evaluations. - Ralph Lifshitz
Who do you take, the guy who should have a better hit tool and feels the safest? Or the one who’s flirted with 60/60 hit/power and could make his home the most hitter-friendly park in baseball? When you put it like that, it seems that Rodgers is the easy choice, but every now and then a prospect writer likes to be a bit contrarian. These two are very close but I’m taking Kieboom, whose prospect stock rose even higher after slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and nine steals over the course of 123 games split nearly even between High-A and Double-A. His ascent to Harrisburg slowed his production (.721 OPS) , but this is the part where I remind you he was a 20-year-old and four years younger than the competition.
Kieboom also showed a better approach at the plate than Rodgers (10 BB% vs. 6.5 BB%), skills that have mirrored what each have done throughout their pro careers. In his Rockies Top 30, Ralph mentioned Rodgers is at risk of shifting off of shortstop, something I don’t think Kieboom is in danger of. Granted, Washington’s roster construction might force that to happen, but not because of Kieboom’s deficiencies. Rodgers has the higher ceiling, and I’d bet that once these careers are over he’ll have better peak seasons than Kieboom, but I don’t think their tools are that different and I’m certain the steadier production will come from the Nats prospect. -Eddy Almaguer
When I scout a player, I do not attach value to what sort of MLB park they will play in. While park factors tend to matter, to the elite prospects, they do not. Many a fantasy GM has chased young Rockies hitters only to be disappointed with lack of playing time or initial struggles at the plate. So if I am to judge between these two, I judge solely on what I see currently and what the tools project to.
Kieboom is the easy winner in this battle. I love his bat speed and raw power. Kieboom’s advanced approach and short swing allow him to hit any pitcher’s fastball. He doesn’t sell out for power and sprays the entire field with line drives. Defensively, he will catch what’s hit to him and his arm is plus, which will keep him on the left side of the infield. For me, he is a third baseman long term but can adequately cover SS. While both players are elite prospects, I think Kieboom is the better hitter and will hit better pitching over the course of his career. - Jason Woodell
In the battle of two elite middle infield prospects I would take Carter Kieboom by a decent margin, especially from a fantasy perspective. Kieboom is the more likely player to stick at short. While not a premium defender, I could see him manning the position in a Corey Seager-like fashion. From my looks Rodgers has little chance to stick at the position. Both are excellent hitters but Kieboom has the superior approach and feel to hit. While his power numbers have yet to fully manifest themselves, plus raw power percolates under the surface. All of this is not to say I dislike Rodgers in any way. His exit velocity numbers are elite, and his swing is sexy. When I look at it, I see great balance, little wasted motion and plus bat speed. His raw skills, however, are somewhat undermined by his aggressive approach to hitting. Overall I have fewer questions with Kieboom. Damelo. *Insert several bomb emojis*. - Jason Pennini
Just like that, the evaluators have spoken. Brendan Rodgers has been voted off of prospect island by a vote of 4-0. Please take a moment to gather your things and say goodbye before you walk out that door. I didn’t expect it to be a clean sweep, but Carter Kieboom is the winner of this player battle due to the higher floor and better underlying offensive skills.